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Do your own research
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The statistics are here.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Don’t panic too much read what the government has said.
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/high-consequence-infectious-diseases-hcid#status-of-covid-19
Covid-19 has a low mortality rate, hence why the government has taken it off the HCID list.
Don’t panic, listen to the advice of the NHS but stay calm,
Fear sales, so don’t listen to much to the media, imagine the profit/ratings the media are getting from this, they haven’t offered a donation to the NHS due the increase in sales of papers and ratings due the Corona virus.
Do some real research yourself, if you have no underlying issues you’ll be ok, you have more of a chance of mild symptoms, than serious ones.
Don’t be worried that’s all I am saying, if you listen too much to the media you’ll have anxiety soon enough |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"It’s just in case others haven’t seen it. Haven’t seen anyone talk about the Worldometer or HCID listing. "
They removed it from the HCID list to allow more than 4 specialist units in the uk to take covid-19 cases.
Looks like otherwise they wouldn't be able to do it. |
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I don’t think that’s right. Here is a statement from that article:
”This was based on consideration of the UK HCID criteria about the virus and the disease with information available during the early stages of the outbreak. Now that more is known about COVID-19, the public health bodies in the UK have reviewed the most up to date information about COVID-19 against the UK HCID criteria“
Also:
”The Advisory Committee on Dangerous Pathogens (ACDP) is also of the opinion that COVID-19 should no longer be classified as an HCID.“
That’s two government bodies, saying due to clinical evidence it has been removed. |
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By *eeBee67Man
over a year ago
Masked and Distant |
Some interesting figures on Worldometer, but lead to some questions.
1. why so few UK recoveries.
2. 20,598 only 163 in serious / critical condition. So why a 4000 bed hospital? And 30000 ventilators needed.
3. 35 times less deaths per million of population than Spain. |
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This is the criteria:
-acute infectious disease
-typically has a high case-fatality rate
-may not have effective prophylaxis or treatment
-often difficult to recognise and detect rapidly
-ability to spread in the community and within healthcare settings
-requires an enhanced individual, population and system response to ensure it is managed effectively, efficiently and safely |
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If you scroll to the still active section to the right, it tells you still active- 20,598 pts still active, as they may have recently been diagnosed, they haven’t had time to recover.
If you look at the older countries look at the higher recovery rate, we only had our first case in January |
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"The question that gets me is the NHS said we will do well to be below 20,000 deaths at the end of this:
However China is only on 3,304 deaths to date, why we massively higher? "
Because it’s scarier ? |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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Here is a animated map of the European continent showing increases and decreases in death rates through time by country.
http://euromomo.eu/slices/map_2017_2020.html
Let the map/image load then click the blue bar to show different time points.
For example the map shows the winter period of 2017 had a much higher that average occurance of mortality widely across Europe - Dark blue shading in many countries. This ha been attributed to a powerful seasonal Influenza. The 2017 winter period had a much larger increase than we are currently seeing.
I hope this helps to give some more understanding to our current experiences.
Take care all.
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"The question that gets me is the NHS said we will do well to be below 20,000 deaths at the end of this:
However China is only on 3,304 deaths to date, why we massively higher? "
Wouldnt believe any news that comes from there.
They are restricting everyting
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Don't need to do research this place is full of know it alls who apparently know everything there is to know about highly contagious viruses and world economy not to mention espionage on a global scale.
FBI, CIA, MI5, NASA ,WHO, CDC,etc...
Should just check out fabs forums seems that all the answers to everything are on here  |
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Nameless wonder, they are interesting statistics. I will have to have a play on that site make sense of what I am looking at.
Can I ask in summary is that mortality rates from every cause of death. |
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By *abioMan
over a year ago
Newcastle and Gateshead |
"The question that gets me is the NHS said we will do well to be below 20,000 deaths at the end of this:
However China is only on 3,304 deaths to date, why we massively higher? "
interesting that you used china's number...
in italy again today 812 people died.... it brings there number so far to just over 11,500.....
why you not using that number.......
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"Don't need to do research this place is full of know it alls who apparently know everything there is to know about highly contagious viruses and world economy not to mention espionage on a global scale.
FBI, CIA, MI5, NASA ,WHO, CDC,etc...
Should just check out fabs forums seems that all the answers to everything are on here "
Or maybe some fab members do some actual research and read the information from reputable sources and try to pass that information to those that ask.
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Ok Italy have had 101,739 cases. Which 11,591 have died. 3981 are in critical condition to date.
Also take into consideration Italy was known for an older population. Also take into account, Covid-19 may not be a sole purpose of that recorded death, people could have just died with mild or no symptoms, but tested positive after death. That still goes down as the statistics of corona.
Do you know more people have died worldwide to date because of the normal flu or malaria.
Have you looked at the Worldometer, have you seen that Neil Ferguson who was advising the government on the expected death toll has now retracted is predicted figures or have you just watch ITV and BBC
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"Feels like we are living in a movie.
What makes it scary is all this need for new morgues?...why?.
"
I agree, I have to look at the phone every day as soon as I wake up to see if I dreamed it all
The morgues are just in case and like most I hope it was all a waste of money |
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Also what’s the plan after this, we go on lockdown for 6 months say... the day they take the restrictions off, We are back to January again.
I’ll be honest, I would rather take the risk of catching corona now if I haven’t already had it and creating the antibodies naturally. Rather than take a rushed vaccine. All the issues that have been caused in the past from new vaccines. No chance, only to be told a year down the line.. “oops made a mistake”
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"Also what’s the plan after this, we go on lockdown for 6 months say... the day they take the restrictions off, We are back to January again.
I’ll be honest, I would rather take the risk of catching corona now if I haven’t already had it and creating the antibodies naturally. Rather than take a rushed vaccine. All the issues that have been caused in the past from new vaccines. No chance, only to be told a year down the line.. “oops made a mistake”
"
Going back to February ww had the conversation about worldometers. Apparently they advise so can't be trusted.
I was referred to the NHS website which described COVID-19 as 'low risk'.
I am now more educated  |
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MayContainFullNuts: what is WW? Who do the Worldometers advise?
That’s what the media use, I have seen certain graphs in media articles from there, which was explained wrongly in the article may I add.
Can you add the NHS link please, I can only find the what to do advise.
Cheers
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"MayContainFullNuts: what is WW? Who do the Worldometers advise?
That’s what the media use, I have seen certain graphs in media articles from there, which was explained wrongly in the article may I add.
Can you add the NHS link please, I can only find the what to do advise.
Cheers
"
Sorry auto correct. They advertise.
At the time that I was suggesting that COVID-19 was not just a sniffle I was using the data available on worldometers to suggest it wasn't. I was then pointed to official sources such as the NHS who advised COVID-19 was 'low risk' at that time.
What would make really good reading would be the COVID-19 threads from February.... if they still existed...
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"Some interesting figures on Worldometer, but lead to some questions.
1. why so few UK recoveries.
2. 20,598 only 163 in serious / critical condition. So why a 4000 bed hospital? And 30000 ventilators needed.
3. 35 times less deaths per million of population than Spain."
1. We're earlier in our epidemic than other countries.
2. Planning for worst case scenario, presumably.
3. The Spanish population are far more likely to smoke (all ages) and they have a vastly aged population compared to us. Same issues for Italy. |
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Kinky_couple2020:
As stupid as it sounds, I have never thought about the smoking aspect, as Italy is not like the UK now, ie no smoking in bars etc.
Really obvious point, which I have never thought of. Thanks for sharing |
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"Kinky_couple2020:
As stupid as it sounds, I have never thought about the smoking aspect, as Italy is not like the UK now, ie no smoking in bars etc.
Really obvious point, which I have never thought of. Thanks for sharing "
Similar issues in China. Smoking is exceptionally common among men but rare in women. The death pattern is very much that men were far more likely to die there. Also levels of air pollution which impact residual lung health. You can have apparently healthy young people but who have lung damage from air pollution and/or smoking. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"Kinky_couple2020:
As stupid as it sounds, I have never thought about the smoking aspect, as Italy is not like the UK now, ie no smoking in bars etc.
Really obvious point, which I have never thought of. Thanks for sharing
Similar issues in China. Smoking is exceptionally common among men but rare in women. The death pattern is very much that men were far more likely to die there. Also levels of air pollution which impact residual lung health. You can have apparently healthy young people but who have lung damage from air pollution and/or smoking. "
There is a deafening silence regarding the effect of smoking on COVID-19 outcomes.
I would imagine that any notification regarding this without extensive studies would be a lawsuit in the making. |
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"Kinky_couple2020:
As stupid as it sounds, I have never thought about the smoking aspect, as Italy is not like the UK now, ie no smoking in bars etc.
Really obvious point, which I have never thought of. Thanks for sharing
Similar issues in China. Smoking is exceptionally common among men but rare in women. The death pattern is very much that men were far more likely to die there. Also levels of air pollution which impact residual lung health. You can have apparently healthy young people but who have lung damage from air pollution and/or smoking.
There is a deafening silence regarding the effect of smoking on COVID-19 outcomes.
I would imagine that any notification regarding this without extensive studies would be a lawsuit in the making."
You're telling me that people in already poor lung health due to smoking or air pollution aren't going to have worse outcomes? This would be about the only respiratory disease where that's the case, then. It's fairly obvious that if people have pre existing lung disease or poor lung function, they will be at increased risk of death from any respiratory disease, and this is no exception. |
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The tobacco companies would spend thousands on proving it makes no difference or tying the lawsuit up with high prices legal teams.
The government would not prompt the decision of investigation due to the high tax bracket.
That’s the world we live in, money is more important than health |
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And the BMJ: https://blogs.bmj.com/tc/2020/03/24/covid-19-and-smoking-the-elephant-in-the-room/
"Liu et al found progression of Covid-19 was more likely to occur in smokers, and smokers were 14 times more likely than nonsmokers to progress to pneumonia. Reporting on Covid-19 hospitalized patients in China, Liu et al say: “This study suggested that the progression group had a significantly higher proportion of patients with a history of smoking than the improvement/stabilization group.” |
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"Kinky couple,
I think he is agreeing with you, but he is saying if that was announced the Tab companies would immediately file a high value lawsuit.  "
Sorry to the guy above if I misunderstood. I'm suffering from the effects of Covid-19 myself and so my brain is a bit mashed. |
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Kinky couple :
Good read that, also it’s interesting about the
“ Smokers are likely to be more vulnerable to COVID-19 as the act of smoking means that fingers (and possibly contaminated cigarettes) are in contact with lips which increases the possibility of transmission of virus from hand to mouth” |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"Kinky_couple2020:
As stupid as it sounds, I have never thought about the smoking aspect, as Italy is not like the UK now, ie no smoking in bars etc.
Really obvious point, which I have never thought of. Thanks for sharing
Similar issues in China. Smoking is exceptionally common among men but rare in women. The death pattern is very much that men were far more likely to die there. Also levels of air pollution which impact residual lung health. You can have apparently healthy young people but who have lung damage from air pollution and/or smoking.
There is a deafening silence regarding the effect of smoking on COVID-19 outcomes.
I would imagine that any notification regarding this without extensive studies would be a lawsuit in the making.
You're telling me that people in already poor lung health due to smoking or air pollution aren't going to have worse outcomes? This would be about the only respiratory disease where that's the case, then. It's fairly obvious that if people have pre existing lung disease or poor lung function, they will be at increased risk of death from any respiratory disease, and this is no exception. "
To the contrary I would imagine it's obvious that smokers are more susceptible to COVID-19 mortality.
I just don't think anyone will be willing to put that down in writing without substantial proof to back it up.
The American car emissions testers knew about VW defeating the tests long before it became public because they were terrified of lawsuits. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"Kinky couple :
Good read that, also it’s interesting about the
“ Smokers are likely to be more vulnerable to COVID-19 as the act of smoking means that fingers (and possibly contaminated cigarettes) are in contact with lips which increases the possibility of transmission of virus from hand to mouth”"
Notice how far the fumes go when someone who is vaping blows out?
A lot further than two metres. |
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"Kinky_couple2020:
As stupid as it sounds, I have never thought about the smoking aspect, as Italy is not like the UK now, ie no smoking in bars etc.
Really obvious point, which I have never thought of. Thanks for sharing
Similar issues in China. Smoking is exceptionally common among men but rare in women. The death pattern is very much that men were far more likely to die there. Also levels of air pollution which impact residual lung health. You can have apparently healthy young people but who have lung damage from air pollution and/or smoking.
There is a deafening silence regarding the effect of smoking on COVID-19 outcomes.
I would imagine that any notification regarding this without extensive studies would be a lawsuit in the making.
You're telling me that people in already poor lung health due to smoking or air pollution aren't going to have worse outcomes? This would be about the only respiratory disease where that's the case, then. It's fairly obvious that if people have pre existing lung disease or poor lung function, they will be at increased risk of death from any respiratory disease, and this is no exception.
To the contrary I would imagine it's obvious that smokers are more susceptible to COVID-19 mortality.
I just don't think anyone will be willing to put that down in writing without substantial proof to back it up.
The American car emissions testers knew about VW defeating the tests long before it became public because they were terrified of lawsuits. "
Sorry, Mr FullNuts if I misunderstood. My brain is addled at the moment. I seem to have Covid-19 and today, after 5hrs of work at home, my brain power died a death and I fell asleep for 3hrs  |
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"
The statistics are here.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Don’t panic too much read what the government has said.
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/high-consequence-infectious-diseases-hcid#status-of-covid-19
Covid-19 has a low mortality rate, hence why the government has taken it off the HCID list.
Don’t panic, listen to the advice of the NHS but stay calm,
Fear sales, so don’t listen to much to the media, imagine the profit/ratings the media are getting from this, they haven’t offered a donation to the NHS due the increase in sales of papers and ratings due the Corona virus.
Do some real research yourself, if you have no underlying issues you’ll be ok, you have more of a chance of mild symptoms, than serious ones.
Don’t be worried that’s all I am saying, if you listen too much to the media you’ll have anxiety soon enough"
However mild symptoms are classed as 'not getting admitted into hospital', not that it will be mild. This it most certainly is not. |
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"
The statistics are here.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Don’t panic too much read what the government has said.
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/high-consequence-infectious-diseases-hcid#status-of-covid-19
Covid-19 has a low mortality rate, hence why the government has taken it off the HCID list.
Don’t panic, listen to the advice of the NHS but stay calm,
Fear sales, so don’t listen to much to the media, imagine the profit/ratings the media are getting from this, they haven’t offered a donation to the NHS due the increase in sales of papers and ratings due the Corona virus.
Do some real research yourself, if you have no underlying issues you’ll be ok, you have more of a chance of mild symptoms, than serious ones.
Don’t be worried that’s all I am saying, if you listen too much to the media you’ll have anxiety soon enough
However mild symptoms are classed as 'not getting admitted into hospital', not that it will be mild. This it most certainly is not."
I have it at the moment (we think, obviously can't be 100%). It's definitely mild for me. |
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Kinky couple...
I don’t think sharks can get it lol
Baby Shark
Doo doo, doo doo doo doo
Baby Shark
Doo doo, doo doo doo doo
Baby Shark
Doo doo, doo doo doo doo
Baby Shark
That video made me laugh lol
|
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
"Kinky_couple2020:
As stupid as it sounds, I have never thought about the smoking aspect, as Italy is not like the UK now, ie no smoking in bars etc.
Really obvious point, which I have never thought of. Thanks for sharing
Similar issues in China. Smoking is exceptionally common among men but rare in women. The death pattern is very much that men were far more likely to die there. Also levels of air pollution which impact residual lung health. You can have apparently healthy young people but who have lung damage from air pollution and/or smoking.
There is a deafening silence regarding the effect of smoking on COVID-19 outcomes.
I would imagine that any notification regarding this without extensive studies would be a lawsuit in the making.
You're telling me that people in already poor lung health due to smoking or air pollution aren't going to have worse outcomes? This would be about the only respiratory disease where that's the case, then. It's fairly obvious that if people have pre existing lung disease or poor lung function, they will be at increased risk of death from any respiratory disease, and this is no exception.
To the contrary I would imagine it's obvious that smokers are more susceptible to COVID-19 mortality.
I just don't think anyone will be willing to put that down in writing without substantial proof to back it up.
The American car emissions testers knew about VW defeating the tests long before it became public because they were terrified of lawsuits.
Sorry, Mr FullNuts if I misunderstood. My brain is addled at the moment. I seem to have Covid-19 and today, after 5hrs of work at home, my brain power died a death and I fell asleep for 3hrs "
No umbrage taken
I get some rest and look after yourself. I hope you're feeling better soon. |
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"Kinky couple...
I don’t think sharks can get it lol
Baby Shark
Doo doo, doo doo doo doo
Baby Shark
Doo doo, doo doo doo doo
Baby Shark
Doo doo, doo doo doo doo
Baby Shark
That video made me laugh lol
"
Hehehe, that was done for a forum challenge. Who knew a ring gag and dildo could be so useful?!
|
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"Kinky couple
Here's wishing you a speedy and full recovery "
Thanks and thank you to everyone who has sent good wishes here. I'm fine, a mild illness really. If anyone is interested, symptoms:
1) Very sudden loss of smell and taste
2) Nasal congestion and swollen glands
3) General aches, mainly neck and shoulders
4) Being really tired and drained
5) Transient temperature (lasted only a few hours). Didn't know I had it till I used a thermometer.
6) Exceptionally sporadic coughs |
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By *eeBee67Man
over a year ago
Masked and Distant |
"Kinky couple
Here's wishing you a speedy and full recovery
Thanks and thank you to everyone who has sent good wishes here. I'm fine, a mild illness really. If anyone is interested, symptoms:
1) Very sudden loss of smell and taste
2) Nasal congestion and swollen glands
3) General aches, mainly neck and shoulders
4) Being really tired and drained
5) Transient temperature (lasted only a few hours). Didn't know I had it till I used a thermometer.
6) Exceptionally sporadic coughs "
Symptoms in that order?
Scary thing is, it sounds so much like a cold. |
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"Kinky couple
Here's wishing you a speedy and full recovery
Thanks and thank you to everyone who has sent good wishes here. I'm fine, a mild illness really. If anyone is interested, symptoms:
1) Very sudden loss of smell and taste
2) Nasal congestion and swollen glands
3) General aches, mainly neck and shoulders
4) Being really tired and drained
5) Transient temperature (lasted only a few hours). Didn't know I had it till I used a thermometer.
6) Exceptionally sporadic coughs
Symptoms in that order?
Scary thing is, it sounds so much like a cold. "
No particular order actually. Just the order they came out of my brain 
The weirdest by a long way though is no.1. Every single thing that passes my lips tastes exactly the same. Grim maybe, but even cum tastes the same as all food and drink! I can detect texture and hot/cold. I have a very strong sense of smell normally but it literally disappeared in a matter of an hour. It is like a very heavy cold at the moment but apparently the sudden loss of smell/taste is being reported widely in mild or asymptomatic cases across the world. |
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"Thanks for the inside information.
After I heard about the smell thing last week, I've been sniffing things constantly just to be sure.
Hope you're on the mend  "
It was when my Thai red curry tasted of fuck all on Friday that I realised something was afoot! If you can't taste that, there's something very wrong
Thanks for your good wishes |
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By *eeBee67Man
over a year ago
Masked and Distant |
"Thanks for the inside information.
After I heard about the smell thing last week, I've been sniffing things constantly just to be sure.
Hope you're on the mend
It was when my Thai red curry tasted of fuck all on Friday that I realised something was afoot! If you can't taste that, there's something very wrong
Thanks for your good wishes "
That's when its serious
One more question from figures, if we are 2 weeks behind Italy and Spain.
Why because....
1. Italy's first case 1 day before UK.
2. Spain's first case same day as UK. |
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I think it's about when the situation became epidemic in the respective countries. We had a handful of well contained cases months ago but it didn't seem to be spreading in epidemic pattern until more recently. It's not just about when the first case happened, it's about the pattern of the disease and level of transmission in the community. |
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By *eeBee67Man
over a year ago
Masked and Distant |
"I think it's about when the situation became epidemic in the respective countries. We had a handful of well contained cases months ago but it didn't seem to be spreading in epidemic pattern until more recently. It's not just about when the first case happened, it's about the pattern of the disease and level of transmission in the community. "
Ok cool.
See a reasoned discussion can be had on here |
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"I think it's about when the situation became epidemic in the respective countries. We had a handful of well contained cases months ago but it didn't seem to be spreading in epidemic pattern until more recently. It's not just about when the first case happened, it's about the pattern of the disease and level of transmission in the community.
Ok cool.
See a reasoned discussion can be had on here "
I happen to be a very reasonable person though |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
The Italian outbreak was detected at the end of February, but it really started at the beginning of January. The UK outbreak likely started later, but quickly catch up. Comparing numbers from different countries can be difficult.
On worldometers you can see that in UK the 94% of all the people who don't have COVID-19 anymore are dead and only the 6% recovered. This is mostly because in UK you get tested and officially reported only when you are severely ill. In Italy the ratio is 50/50 as more people get tested.
At the moment, deaths in UK are following the same trajectory of thise in Italy and they are roughly 16 days behind. It is true the Italy is full of old people but this is not going to make too much difference. We keep repeating the old-people-thing to cheer us up. But in 16 days we will have roughly the same number of deaths. |
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By *eeBee67Man
over a year ago
Masked and Distant |
"I think it's about when the situation became epidemic in the respective countries. We had a handful of well contained cases months ago but it didn't seem to be spreading in epidemic pattern until more recently. It's not just about when the first case happened, it's about the pattern of the disease and level of transmission in the community.
Ok cool.
See a reasoned discussion can be had on here
I happen to be a very reasonable person though "
I'd put you far above reasonable |
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"I think it's about when the situation became epidemic in the respective countries. We had a handful of well contained cases months ago but it didn't seem to be spreading in epidemic pattern until more recently. It's not just about when the first case happened, it's about the pattern of the disease and level of transmission in the community.
Ok cool.
See a reasoned discussion can be had on here
I happen to be a very reasonable person though
I'd put you far above reasonable "
Why thank you  |
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By *eeBee67Man
over a year ago
Masked and Distant |
"The Italian outbreak was detected at the end of February, but it really started at the beginning of January. The UK outbreak likely started later, but quickly catch up. Comparing numbers from different countries can be difficult.
On worldometers you can see that in UK the 94% of all the people who don't have COVID-19 anymore are dead and only the 6% recovered. This is mostly because in UK you get tested and officially reported only when you are severely ill. In Italy the ratio is 50/50 as more people get tested.
At the moment, deaths in UK are following the same trajectory of thise in Italy and they are roughly 16 days behind. It is true the Italy is full of old people but this is not going to make too much difference. We keep repeating the old-people-thing to cheer us up. But in 16 days we will have roughly the same number of deaths."
One interpretation of the figures.
Another is the increase in uk cases is at a slower rate than Italy so will take much longer than the 2 weeks to reach the current Italy level, based on the current level of increase. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"The Italian outbreak was detected at the end of February, but it really started at the beginning of January. The UK outbreak likely started later, but quickly catch up. Comparing numbers from different countries can be difficult.
On worldometers you can see that in UK the 94% of all the people who don't have COVID-19 anymore are dead and only the 6% recovered. This is mostly because in UK you get tested and officially reported only when you are severely ill. In Italy the ratio is 50/50 as more people get tested.
At the moment, deaths in UK are following the same trajectory of thise in Italy and they are roughly 16 days behind. It is true the Italy is full of old people but this is not going to make too much difference. We keep repeating the old-people-thing to cheer us up. But in 16 days we will have roughly the same number of deaths."
My understanding, though I may be wrong, is that the Italian "superspreader" shared a sku challet with 11 people, two of whom were doctors. I would imagine that an infected doctor "shedding" the virus gets to infect as many patients as one can see in a day.
Another patient zero in another country might be a recluse and infect no one.
One might postulate that if "Mattias" had got off the plane at Heathrow instead of going to a ski resort in Northern Italy we might be two weeks ahead of Italy instead  |
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By *eeBee67Man
over a year ago
Masked and Distant |
"I think it's about when the situation became epidemic in the respective countries. We had a handful of well contained cases months ago but it didn't seem to be spreading in epidemic pattern until more recently. It's not just about when the first case happened, it's about the pattern of the disease and level of transmission in the community.
Ok cool.
See a reasoned discussion can be had on here
I happen to be a very reasonable person though
I'd put you far above reasonable
Why thank you "
Sorry didn't mean to make you blush, well ok I did |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
"The Italian outbreak was detected at the end of February, but it really started at the beginning of January. The UK outbreak likely started later, but quickly catch up. Comparing numbers from different countries can be difficult.
On worldometers you can see that in UK the 94% of all the people who don't have COVID-19 anymore are dead and only the 6% recovered. This is mostly because in UK you get tested and officially reported only when you are severely ill. In Italy the ratio is 50/50 as more people get tested.
At the moment, deaths in UK are following the same trajectory of thise in Italy and they are roughly 16 days behind. It is true the Italy is full of old people but this is not going to make too much difference. We keep repeating the old-people-thing to cheer us up. But in 16 days we will have roughly the same number of deaths.
One interpretation of the figures.
Another is the increase in uk cases is at a slower rate than Italy so will take much longer than the 2 weeks to reach the current Italy level, based on the current level of increase."
The level of increase in deaths has been the same so far (actually it was worst in UK few days ago). Of course it could get better, we don't know. But this country didn't take stricter measures than Italy so there is no reason to believe that i won't follow the same route. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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Worldometers says UK 163 serious critical...
But sky says...
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-more-than-9-000-people-with-covid-19-being-treated-in-hospital-11965880 |
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"Worldometers says UK 163 serious critical...
But sky says...
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-more-than-9-000-people-with-covid-19-being-treated-in-hospital-11965880"
Being in hospital doesn't immediately make them critical though. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"Worldometers says UK 163 serious critical...
But sky says...
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-more-than-9-000-people-with-covid-19-being-treated-in-hospital-11965880
Being in hospital doesn't immediately make them critical though. "
Sorry that's serious/critical |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
"Worldometers says UK 163 serious critical...
But sky says...
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-more-than-9-000-people-with-covid-19-being-treated-in-hospital-11965880
Being in hospital doesn't immediately make them critical though.
Sorry that's serious/critical "
All I am saying is don't take worldometers data as gospel. It's only as good as the reporting and I doubt staff are spending time writing reports.
You know something is off when the number of critically ill is consistently less than the daily death toll.... |
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"Worldometers says UK 163 serious critical...
But sky says...
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-more-than-9-000-people-with-covid-19-being-treated-in-hospital-11965880
Being in hospital doesn't immediately make them critical though.
Sorry that's serious/critical "
Again, being in hospital doesn't necessarily make a patient with Covid-19 serious/critical. If we had 9000 in that sort of severity, we'd be treating them in the car parks and leisure centres already. Remember until at least very recently, the whole UK was supposed to have around 3000  ventilators. The 9000 will include people hospitalised for other reasons who also test positive for SARS-CoV-2. |
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By *eeBee67Man
over a year ago
Masked and Distant |
"Worldometers says UK 163 serious critical...
But sky says...
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-more-than-9-000-people-with-covid-19-being-treated-in-hospital-11965880
Being in hospital doesn't immediately make them critical though.
Sorry that's serious/critical
Again, being in hospital doesn't necessarily make a patient with Covid-19 serious/critical. If we had 9000 in that sort of severity, we'd be treating them in the car parks and leisure centres already. Remember until at least very recently, the whole UK was supposed to have around 3000 ventilators. The 9000 will include people hospitalised for other reasons who also test positive for SARS-CoV-2."
True, 9000 being treated in hospital, but 163 critical. I'm still holding out the hope that the government is planning for the worse possible scenario.
One thing still in my brain is how many are dying from Covid19 rather than with it, I know deaths are from the pneumonia caused by Covid19. But how many have died from something with a mild underlying case of Covid19?
The 21 year old who sadly passed away was attributed as a Covid death with no underlying health issues. Who later turned out died from a heart attack. |
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This country is registering anyone who dies testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 in the data. That includes those for whom infection is almost incidental ie not the cause of the death. Someone who got run over by a bus but subsequently tests positive would be counted in the UK. Countries are recording these things differently, another reason to compare different countries with caution. |
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By *eeBee67Man
over a year ago
Masked and Distant |
"This country is registering anyone who dies testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 in the data. That includes those for whom infection is almost incidental ie not the cause of the death. Someone who got run over by a bus but subsequently tests positive would be counted in the UK. Countries are recording these things differently, another reason to compare different countries with caution. "
Good point, I for one am not comparing different countries, too many differences, age, diet, drinking, smoking habits, stress levels etc etc.
Got friends and colleagues in Spain and their way of life is so different. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
"Worldometers says UK 163 serious critical...
But sky says...
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-more-than-9-000-people-with-covid-19-being-treated-in-hospital-11965880
Being in hospital doesn't immediately make them critical though.
Sorry that's serious/critical
Again, being in hospital doesn't necessarily make a patient with Covid-19 serious/critical. If we had 9000 in that sort of severity, we'd be treating them in the car parks and leisure centres already. Remember until at least very recently, the whole UK was supposed to have around 3000 ventilators. The 9000 will include people hospitalised for other reasons who also test positive for SARS-CoV-2."
Thanks that's news to me. I thought they were only hospitalizing the serious and critical.
How do you expain the death toll being higher than the previous day's critical/serious? |
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"Worldometers says UK 163 serious critical...
But sky says...
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-more-than-9-000-people-with-covid-19-being-treated-in-hospital-11965880
Being in hospital doesn't immediately make them critical though.
Sorry that's serious/critical
Again, being in hospital doesn't necessarily make a patient with Covid-19 serious/critical. If we had 9000 in that sort of severity, we'd be treating them in the car parks and leisure centres already. Remember until at least very recently, the whole UK was supposed to have around 3000 ventilators. The 9000 will include people hospitalised for other reasons who also test positive for SARS-CoV-2.
Thanks that's news to me. I thought they were only hospitalizing the serious and critical.
How do you expain the death toll being higher than the previous day's critical/serious?"
Because people will have died with "incidental" Covid-19. People who've died of other things but also happen to be positive for SARS-CoV-2 and who have never been near a ventilator or an ICU bed. Like my earlier example of the person hit by a bus. Also remember that people who die very suddenly (of anything) will not necessarily go on the "critical" list. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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Just to compare... we have Germany:
1979 serious/critical 104 deceased
We have:
163 serious/critical 180 deceade
A tenth of the critical/serious but nearly 80% more deaths.
Nothing about this strikes anyone as odd?
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"Just to compare... we have Germany:
1979 serious/critical 104 deceased
We have:
163 serious/critical 180 deceade
A tenth of the critical/serious but nearly 80% more deaths.
Nothing about this strikes anyone as odd?
"
Its down to how we're defining deaths. We're counting all "died with" whereas Germany may be defining differently. The fact countries are using all different metrics means that we cannot directly compare country to country easily. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
"Worldometers says UK 163 serious critical...
But sky says...
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-more-than-9-000-people-with-covid-19-being-treated-in-hospital-11965880
Being in hospital doesn't immediately make them critical though.
Sorry that's serious/critical
Again, being in hospital doesn't necessarily make a patient with Covid-19 serious/critical. If we had 9000 in that sort of severity, we'd be treating them in the car parks and leisure centres already. Remember until at least very recently, the whole UK was supposed to have around 3000 ventilators. The 9000 will include people hospitalised for other reasons who also test positive for SARS-CoV-2.
Thanks that's news to me. I thought they were only hospitalizing the serious and critical.
How do you expain the death toll being higher than the previous day's critical/serious?
Because people will have died with "incidental" Covid-19. People who've died of other things but also happen to be positive for SARS-CoV-2 and who have never been near a ventilator or an ICU bed. Like my earlier example of the person hit by a bus. Also remember that people who die very suddenly (of anything) will not necessarily go on the "critical" list. "
It's fair. And a good point. Nice to see a good counter argument for a change |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
"Just to compare... we have Germany:
1979 serious/critical 104 deceased
We have:
163 serious/critical 180 deceade
A tenth of the critical/serious but nearly 80% more deaths.
Nothing about this strikes anyone as odd?
Its down to how we're defining deaths. We're counting all "died with" whereas Germany may be defining differently. The fact countries are using all different metrics means that we cannot directly compare country to country easily. "
Ok I can see why that may be right. To back up what you are saying there's a wiggle in the curve where the Chinese adjusted their own criteria. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"Mr FullNuts, you will find I'm a most reasonable person, my friend "
You are indeed and I thank you for that
Thanks for helping me see things from another perspective. Good to have fab to bounce things off people |
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By *litterbabeWoman
over a year ago
hiding from cock pics |
What about the domo.com statistics, I have been using those, are they considered a reliable source?
Also I know people who are recovering at home, but have never been tested. I presume they are not counted in the active cases at the moment.
So therefore for it is really impossible to know accurately in my perspective what is going on, I'm just sticking to the advice and hoping it passes sooner than what a I am expecting.
Also I presume people that sadly passed away at home and don't make it to hospital are not counted in in the virus death statistics as they won't have been tested before they die. |
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"Mr FullNuts, you will find I'm a most reasonable person, my friend
You are indeed and I thank you for that
Thanks for helping me see things from another perspective. Good to have fab to bounce things off people "
No worries. Science is my thing and I enjoy discussing it objectively with others. Some would say I'm a bit of a geek  |
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"What about the domo.com statistics, I have been using those, are they considered a reliable source?
Also I know people who are recovering at home, but have never been tested. I presume they are not counted in the active cases at the moment.
So therefore for it is really impossible to know accurately in my perspective what is going on, I'm just sticking to the advice and hoping it passes sooner than what a I am expecting.
Also I presume people that sadly passed away at home and don't make it to hospital are not counted in in the virus death statistics as they won't have been tested before they die. "
Not heard of domo.com so unsure on that. We don't know the true community figures, no. And it may be that deaths outside a hospital setting are counted if a test is done at post mortem. Most deaths at home would result in a PM nowadays. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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Just reading some of the threads
Interesting...
Enlightening...
Yet many cant read a womans mind. Know where washing basket is or find a clit.
Good luck solving this crisis ..theres
Many more after this one.
(Said in humour .. no loo roll insite) |
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By *eeBee67Man
over a year ago
Masked and Distant |
I'd understood that from this week they will be starting to count deaths outside of hospitals (sure it was in one of government update sessions), which means 2 things;
1. They weren't before so figures would have been higher.
2. They are now so figures will now be higher. |
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Financial times website is showing daily updates of a graph that compares the trajectories of infected countries. They use a logarithmic scale vertically for deaths, with horizontal scale for days since country had first deaths. This effectively starts the lines for all countries at the same place and allows direct comparisons to be seen.
For the last week the UK has been following almost exactly the same line as italy but 15 days behind. There is no visible indication yet of any effect coming through from our lockdown, i wouldn't really expect it to show for at least another week. Currently our deaths are doubling about every 2 and a half days, so could be about 8 times the current figure before starting to slow, maybe about 10,000. Italy is still doubling about once a week; I think it will be a good result if our measures give that effect by next weekend. |
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By *eeBee67Man
over a year ago
Masked and Distant |
Polly
I've seen those graphs (or similar) on domo.com (just looked) and on yesterday's news conference, and the uk line was starting to head away from the Spain and Italy lines.
Neither infection or death rates at the moment are doubling every 3 days even.
The only thing we can do is continue to watch figures from all sources. |
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The problem with figures is exactly why Kinkycouple has said, unless everyone is following the same criteria the situation and be manipulated.
Death can be recorded as Covid-19 when the virus never played apart in that persons death ie like the 21 yr old. Sadly I know plenty of
Young people that have died from heat attacks or cancer etc, it’s not out the ordinary to see those deaths. However if the person doing the recording is adding them to the statistics of Corona, it looks a very scary virus.
Have you seen the videos the ITU nurses are putting up, dancing with signs “saying stay at home” have a quick glance behind them, the beds are empty. If you follow the media they make out the hospitals are over flowing with corona pts.
This has been a very good discussion, apart from 1-2 people trying to lower the tone with 1 msg, Writing absolute rubbish then leaving when people ignore silly comments lol well done people
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I fear that the statistics for this country are reporting artificially low, rather than being blown up. The amount of testing is low, either because of lack of testing kits and/or processing capability, but ultimately this is due to the governments deliberate decision to ignore the advice of the WHO. We should have been prepared.
Also i have seen reports of people who have died with all the symptoms of covid-19, but because the death did not occur as a test certified infected person, were written up as other causes.
It is not always going to be clear cut, and yes, everybody would wish that the numbers were falling not rising. But i think we do need to be wary of treating what might be a false wobble in the statistics as premature reason for slackening off any efforts. And we certainly should not be congratulating our politicians on doing a good job when it is mainly due to their bad decisions during the previous weeks and months that things have got to this state at all. |
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"I fear that the statistics for this country are reporting artificially low, rather than being blown up. The amount of testing is low, either because of lack of testing kits and/or processing capability, but ultimately this is due to the governments deliberate decision to ignore the advice of the WHO. We should have been prepared.
Also i have seen reports of people who have died with all the symptoms of covid-19, but because the death did not occur as a test certified infected person, were written up as other causes.
It is not always going to be clear cut, and yes, everybody would wish that the numbers were falling not rising. But i think we do need to be wary of treating what might be a false wobble in the statistics as premature reason for slackening off any efforts. And we certainly should not be congratulating our politicians on doing a good job when it is mainly due to their bad decisions during the previous weeks and months that things have got to this state at all."
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Have you read the articles about Neil Ferguson? He was one of two people advising on the pandemic, he screwed the numbers. He predicted over 500,000 deaths, however last week he back tracked and said under new light the deaths will be much lower, under 20,000.
Also not saying their playing cards! But there not over flowing are they? I am actually in the industry, the patient case load pressures is not currently from Covid-19, it’s from the nurses having to self isolate, which before the pandemic ,Trusts was already working between 104-110% capacity. So now they have to manage the same case load with less staff. Which before this was already ridiculous.
The NHS have less traffic in ITUs/CCU, as people are now taking less risks in daily life for example less RTC’s, Less work related injuries which took up a lot of resource. |
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"If you scroll to the still active section to the right, it tells you still active- 20,598 pts still active, as they may have recently been diagnosed, they haven’t had time to recover.
If you look at the older countries look at the higher recovery rate, we only had our first case in January "
Im not too sure about the stats being put out
If it takes max 7 days to recover then in theory anyone tested before 23/03 should have an outcome now
There are almost 7000 cases over 7 days old now , 1400 deaths and only 135 recovered
I understand it's a difficult time but if we are getting stats pushed out then I think they should be explained.
At the moment it looks to me like the emphasis is on the bad news or retesting is not happening to see if they are now clear |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"Have you read the articles about Neil Ferguson? He was one of two people advising on the pandemic, he screwed the numbers. He predicted over 500,000 deaths, however last week he back tracked and said under new light the deaths will be much lower, under 20,000.
Also not saying their playing cards! But there not over flowing are they? I am actually in the industry, the patient case load pressures is not currently from Covid-19, it’s from the nurses having to self isolate, which before the pandemic ,Trusts was already working between 104-110% capacity. So now they have to manage the same case load with less staff. Which before this was already ridiculous.
The NHS have less traffic in ITUs/CCU, as people are now taking less risks in daily life for example less RTC’s, Less work related injuries which took up a lot of resource. "
I read what Ferguson said. I don't think you did. He made 2 estimate. One before lockdown and one after lockdown. Of course the lockdown is expected to have a good effect. That is the whole point of it. |
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I have read it, why would I know about it? (Stupid question)
Have you just read one article or have you read a few. The first prediction was done with minimal clinical evidence, not taking in to account certain aspects. Second was done with more widely available information.
What are you trying to argue here?
What was the second verdict?....hmmmmm
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"Have you read the articles about Neil Ferguson? He was one of two people advising on the pandemic, he screwed the numbers. He predicted over 500,000 deaths, however last week he back tracked and said under new light the deaths will be much lower, under 20,000.
Also not saying their playing cards! But there not over flowing are they? I am actually in the industry, the patient case load pressures is not currently from Covid-19, it’s from the nurses having to self isolate, which before the pandemic ,Trusts was already working between 104-110% capacity. So now they have to manage the same case load with less staff. Which before this was already ridiculous.
The NHS have less traffic in ITUs/CCU, as people are now taking less risks in daily life for example less RTC’s, Less work related injuries which took up a lot of resource. "
Not true, most if not all routine and elective has been cancelled a lot of hospitals are very quiet waiting for the onslaught that hopefully won't come. |
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Your saying it’s not true, but then you say they are quiet?
Do you not think less Traffic means less accidents?
There were 27,820 people killed or seriously injured (KSI) reported to the police in the year ending June 2019. This compares to 26,724 in the year ending June 2018 and is a statistically significant increase of 4%, at the 95% confidence level.
• There were 157,630 casualties of all severities in the year ending June 2019,”
Do you not think that impacts hospitals?
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/848485/road-casualties-year-ending-june-2019.pdf
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"I have read it, why would I know about it? (Stupid question)
Have you just read one article or have you read a few. The first prediction was done with minimal clinical evidence, not taking in to account certain aspects. Second was done with more widely available information.
What are you trying to argue here?
What was the second verdict?....hmmmmm
"
I read the actual paper by Ferguson. Not some conspiracy-related website.
He never said the the first prediction was wrong or inaccurate. He just adjusted the estimate considering the lockdown currently in place. Actually in the new paper COVID-19 is considered more 'infective' than they initially thought, but this is mitigated by social distancing. |
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Ok lets put it this way. I watched a really interesting video interviewing a south Korean doctor who specialises in deadly disease. He had 30 years experience of previous diseases like Aids, SARS, MURS and Swine flu... He said this has been the most challenging disease he's come across. It has affected 195 countries so don't be too relaxed about it which leads to behaviour where you can easily spread the virus and cripple our NHS. I personally know people who been affected by this disease. I may have contracted it by working closely with affected people, being a key worker. So I take this pendamenic seriously |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/
Here is my source of information regarding what Ferguson says. Now there are newer reports, but the previous are still available for download.
I'm not trying to insult anyone. But if you post bullshit on the Internet on such an important topic you must expect criticism.
Especially if, to prove your point, you post articles that prove you wrong. |
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Jasminegirthlover, the original point of this thread was not to take the pandemic lightly.
It was that the media is causing unnecessary panic. They are creating panic and will continue to create panic because ratings go up, which leads to profit.
If you do look further into this, the picture changers, yes people are at risk of death. No one has said people are not.
However the public has become to reliant on the media, which creates an incorrect picture.
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
If we let them control our lives for something that kills less than hunger(8 million) and tuberculosis (1.18 million), suicide(794000), malaria(619000), diarrhea(1.57 million), meningitis(288000), cancer(9 milion), HIV/AIDS(418000), alcohol abuse(185000), cardiovascular diseasis(17 million)...per year (2017).
2.7 million this year died of hunger alone... And we here locked down to wait bill gates for digitalise our lives and get his vaccinations? Ye wake up... |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
"
The statistics are here.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Don’t panic too much read what the government has said.
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/high-consequence-infectious-diseases-hcid#status-of-covid-19
Covid-19 has a low mortality rate, hence why the government has taken it off the HCID list.
Don’t panic, listen to the advice of the NHS but stay calm,
Fear sales, so don’t listen to much to the media, imagine the profit/ratings the media are getting from this, they haven’t offered a donation to the NHS due the increase in sales of papers and ratings due the Corona virus.
Do some real research yourself, if you have no underlying issues you’ll be ok, you have more of a chance of mild symptoms, than serious ones.
Don’t be worried that’s all I am saying, if you listen too much to the media you’ll have anxiety soon enough"
More clicks = more profit = investors get dividends and public attention = dog eat dog |
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May I suggest the recent ONS data on Covid-19 deaths as interesting reading? It is for week ending 20th March and is linked from this BBC article - Coronavirus: Why the UK death count is an inexact science
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52103808 |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
"Alpha Diamond..good point "
I am regretting not being a cyberpunk(I still can learn), it will a very well/useful skill to have when they digitalise our lives soon... = Old farts vulnerable billionaires to the virus and politicians and gangsters are protecting themselves = more business = reseting rules = new ideas = reseting stock market = loads of profit |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"Alpha Diamond..good point
I am regretting not being a cyberpunk(I still can learn), it will a very well/useful skill to have when they digitalise our lives soon... = Old farts vulnerable billionaires to the virus and politicians and gangsters are protecting themselves = more business = reseting rules = new ideas = reseting stock market = loads of profit"
Will be* |
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