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Last weeks predictions - revisited
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Had another look at the predictions I posted seven days ago, 14th March.
"Number of diagnosed cases in UK now doubling every two days, according to latest official figures. At just over 200 cases today (saturday). So:
Monday - 400
Wednesday - 800
Friday - 1,600
Next Sunday - 3,200
Week on Tuesday - 6,400
Week on Thursday - 12,800
Week on Saturday - 25,600
Two weeks on Monday - 51,200
Two weeks on Wednesday - 102,400
Or thereabouts. Might reach the 100 thousand level a few days earlier or later, but it will get there unless the government does something very drastic like forced quarantine of cities and stopping all movement.
"
https://www.fabswingers.com/forum/politics/986901#message_22720753
It's now 21st March. Looks like although the trend was right, I underestimated the spread rate slightly. My prediction was 3200 cases in the UK tomorrow, we are actually just past 4000 cases today.
Nobody likes a smart arse. And I really do wish I had been completely wrong. |
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The thing to watch for now is whether the increasing awareness of the need for social distancing, and the other measures that the government has (belatedly in my opinion) put in place during this last week are having enough effect.
My figure for next saturday, 28th March, is 32,000 cases in the UK. If the numbers are significantly lower than that, it means that the measures are helping and that if we continue being even more careful, there is a chance of getting it under control.
If the actual number is significantly above 32,000 then things are going to get a lot worse. |
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"The thing to watch for now is whether the increasing awareness of the need for social distancing, and the other measures that the government has (belatedly in my opinion) put in place during this last week are having enough effect.
My figure for next saturday, 28th March, is 32,000 cases in the UK. If the numbers are significantly lower than that, it means that the measures are helping and that if we continue being even more careful, there is a chance of getting it under control.
If the actual number is significantly above 32,000 then things are going to get a lot worse."
I fear you might be right. |
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"The thing to watch for now is whether the increasing awareness of the need for social distancing, and the other measures that the government has (belatedly in my opinion) put in place during this last week are having enough effect.
My figure for next saturday, 28th March, is 32,000 cases in the UK. If the numbers are significantly lower than that, it means that the measures are helping and that if we continue being even more careful, there is a chance of getting it under control.
If the actual number is significantly above 32,000 then things are going to get a lot worse.
I fear you might be right."
The number of people confirmed shooting up is expected the government have massively increased the number of people tested. The number of deaths is a more accurate but equally worrying way of judging the spread. Although there will probably be a 2 week lag. |
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By *obka3Couple
over a year ago
bournemouth |
At some point 80 % need to catch it so the old and vulnerable are safer, the only stat that interests me is deaths, we need to keep that as low as possible by keeping those at high risk safe and isolated not the healthy but scared 50 and under hiding away self isolating for no reason. The more of us who are very low risk who catch it makes it safer for our mums and dads and grandparents and those suffering from cancer etc |
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"At some point 80 % need to catch it so the old and vulnerable are safer, the only stat that interests me is deaths, we need to keep that as low as possible by keeping those at high risk safe and isolated not the healthy but scared 50 and under hiding away self isolating for no reason. The more of us who are very low risk who catch it makes it safer for our mums and dads and grandparents and those suffering from cancer etc"
Some of the low risk will end up with life threatening versions of it. I understand what you're saying and have sympathy for it, but it's not quite that simple. |
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By *obka3Couple
over a year ago
bournemouth |
"At some point 80 % need to catch it so the old and vulnerable are safer, the only stat that interests me is deaths, we need to keep that as low as possible by keeping those at high risk safe and isolated not the healthy but scared 50 and under hiding away self isolating for no reason. The more of us who are very low risk who catch it makes it safer for our mums and dads and grandparents and those suffering from cancer etc
Some of the low risk will end up with life threatening versions of it. I understand what you're saying and have sympathy for it, but it's not quite that simple."
Nothing is ever simple but it's a fact that until a vaccine is available and in enough quantities to give to all who haven't had the virus and that point is a year away probably we have to try and keep the economy from failing completely and at the same time avoiding riots over food etc, some are going to die from the virus, maybe even me, it's a price I'm willing to pay for the future life of my grandkids,I dont want them living in conditions like we see in Syria etc |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"The thing to watch for now is whether the increasing awareness of the need for social distancing, and the other measures that the government has (belatedly in my opinion) put in place during this last week are having enough effect.
My figure for next saturday, 28th March, is 32,000 cases in the UK. If the numbers are significantly lower than that, it means that the measures are helping and that if we continue being even more careful, there is a chance of getting it under control.
If the actual number is significantly above 32,000 then things are going to get a lot worse."
Listen to Polly folks
She is possibly the most intelligent person Ive ever met
I poo pooed her theories
Saying " Corona virus is the least of my worries"
But so far she has been spot on |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"The thing to watch for now is whether the increasing awareness of the need for social distancing, and the other measures that the government has (belatedly in my opinion) put in place during this last week are having enough effect.
My figure for next saturday, 28th March, is 32,000 cases in the UK. If the numbers are significantly lower than that, it means that the measures are helping and that if we continue being even more careful, there is a chance of getting it under control.
If the actual number is significantly above 32,000 then things are going to get a lot worse."
If the figure is 32000 next Saturday, is still in the balance? |
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"The thing to watch for now is whether the increasing awareness of the need for social distancing, and the other measures that the government has (belatedly in my opinion) put in place during this last week are having enough effect.
My figure for next saturday, 28th March, is 32,000 cases in the UK. If the numbers are significantly lower than that, it means that the measures are helping and that if we continue being even more careful, there is a chance of getting it under control.
If the actual number is significantly above 32,000 then things are going to get a lot worse.
If the figure is 32000 next Saturday, is still in the balance? "
Would mean that the measures so far have done nothing to help, but at least not made it worse. Not at all good though. |
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"The thing to watch for now is whether the increasing awareness of the need for social distancing, and the other measures that the government has (belatedly in my opinion) put in place during this last week are having enough effect.
My figure for next saturday, 28th March, is 32,000 cases in the UK. If the numbers are significantly lower than that, it means that the measures are helping and that if we continue being even more careful, there is a chance of getting it under control.
If the actual number is significantly above 32,000 then things are going to get a lot worse.
If the figure is 32000 next Saturday, is still in the balance?
Would mean that the measures so far have done nothing to help, but at least not made it worse. Not at all good though."
We are over 5000. Terrifyingly and I argue blatantly avoidably... I fear that 'we've' f****d this up. Lockdown London if not actually, then an order of 12hrs notice by 6pm on Tuesday 25th? |
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We need instant decisions. Not locking down in a few days. Stuff needs doing immediately. Every day of delay means the final death toll rises by a factor of 1.5, cumulative. Doubles every two days. A factor of ten every week. The two weeks that government left football matches running, schools open, people going to the pub, means a hundred times more people dying than needed to. |
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By *obka3Couple
over a year ago
bournemouth |
"We need instant decisions. Not locking down in a few days. Stuff needs doing immediately. Every day of delay means the final death toll rises by a factor of 1.5, cumulative. Doubles every two days. A factor of ten every week. The two weeks that government left football matches running, schools open, people going to the pub, means a hundred times more people dying than needed to."
Ok so how long do you think the lockdown needs to last to remove this virus from the world ? |
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By *oggoneMan
over a year ago
Derry |
"We need instant decisions. Not locking down in a few days. Stuff needs doing immediately. Every day of delay means the final death toll rises by a factor of 1.5, cumulative. Doubles every two days. A factor of ten every week. The two weeks that government left football matches running, schools open, people going to the pub, means a hundred times more people dying than needed to.
Ok so how long do you think the lockdown needs to last to remove this virus from the world ? "
The truth is, we don't know and there's a few variables in the mix. A vaccine is still at best 12 months away, thats is the ultimate fix for CV19. But in the meantime, theres a lot that can be done, the first has to be stop or slow down the rate of new cases and thats is down to you. me and everyone else. Yes govt has a massive role in this but I think we have to prepare ourselves for much more disruption to our lives and not fight it.
The UK has been behind the curve in responding to this relative to other countries and unfortunately that is going to cost in terms of peoples lives.
It is heartening that some countries have stopped the spread of the virus, it shows that it can be done. Their societies haven't returned to normal but it won't be normal for a long time, realistically 12-18 months. It may never be the same again but we can come back from this. If there is a silver lining it might make us ask ourselves and each other about what sort of world we want. |
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"We need instant decisions. Not locking down in a few days. Stuff needs doing immediately. Every day of delay means the final death toll rises by a factor of 1.5, cumulative. Doubles every two days. A factor of ten every week. The two weeks that government left football matches running, schools open, people going to the pub, means a hundred times more people dying than needed to.
Ok so how long do you think the lockdown needs to last to remove this virus from the world ? "
Apparently there is a small town in the middle of the hot zone in italy who got it under control in 14 days. Very strict lockdown. Testing of everybody whether showing symptoms or not. Isolating all those testing positive and tracing their contacts. The town is maintaining a closed border but otherwise daily life is now starting to get back to some version of normal.
Conversely wales has shown a massive surge yesterday, one week after the stereophonics concerts with thousands packed together coming from all parts of wales.
Lockdown does not mean everybody going into isolation forever. It means a relatively short period to figure out who has it and get them past the infectious stage. Then a longer period of just keeping a bit of distance from each other and not allowing crowds. |
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By *obka3Couple
over a year ago
bournemouth |
"We need instant decisions. Not locking down in a few days. Stuff needs doing immediately. Every day of delay means the final death toll rises by a factor of 1.5, cumulative. Doubles every two days. A factor of ten every week. The two weeks that government left football matches running, schools open, people going to the pub, means a hundred times more people dying than needed to.
Ok so how long do you think the lockdown needs to last to remove this virus from the world ?
Apparently there is a small town in the middle of the hot zone in italy who got it under control in 14 days. Very strict lockdown. Testing of everybody whether showing symptoms or not. Isolating all those testing positive and tracing their contacts. The town is maintaining a closed border but otherwise daily life is now starting to get back to some version of normal.
Conversely wales has shown a massive surge yesterday, one week after the stereophonics concerts with thousands packed together coming from all parts of wales.
Lockdown does not mean everybody going into isolation forever. It means a relatively short period to figure out who has it and get them past the infectious stage. Then a longer period of just keeping a bit of distance from each other and not allowing crowds."
I'm glad you brought that study up, yes it was a total shut down, ie no one was involved in going shopping or the provision of power or water or any other sevice, that is just not possible except as a study area,and is certainly not the way the lockdown in the rest of Italy is enforced . however the interesting part was that for every person that tested positive and had shown symptoms another 10 that tested positve had no symptoms at all, which gives huge hope that A death rates arent going to be so awful as many fear and B far more have been exposed round the world than numbers suggest and higher than governments have calculated which imvho means that a very large number in the UK have had it or are currently in the process of being infected which makes keeping the vulnerable locked up the key to keeping deaths low.
Boris has said the worse could be over in 12 week's if the study in Italy is correct and transfers to elsewhere he could be basing his hopes on it, |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"At some point 80 % need to catch it so the old and vulnerable are safer, the only stat that interests me is deaths, we need to keep that as low as possible by keeping those at high risk safe and isolated not the healthy but scared 50 and under hiding away self isolating for no reason. The more of us who are very low risk who catch it makes it safer for our mums and dads and grandparents and those suffering from cancer etc"
You realise it only makes them safer in a new wave or a second season? Then they'll be as safe as anyone against the flu (ie they can still get the flu or covid 19 and die). And then you take into account availability of vaccines. |
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By *obka3Couple
over a year ago
bournemouth |
"At some point 80 % need to catch it so the old and vulnerable are safer, the only stat that interests me is deaths, we need to keep that as low as possible by keeping those at high risk safe and isolated not the healthy but scared 50 and under hiding away self isolating for no reason. The more of us who are very low risk who catch it makes it safer for our mums and dads and grandparents and those suffering from cancer etc
You realise it only makes them safer in a new wave or a second season? Then they'll be as safe as anyone against the flu (ie they can still get the flu or covid 19 and die). And then you take into account availability of vaccines. "
No it makes them safe from us visiting them when the test for checking who has had it, then they have to wait for the vaccine |
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By *litterbabeWoman
over a year ago
hiding from cock pics. |
"John Hopkins University has data continually updated."
I have been trying to use their site for data for over 2 days, but I find it impossible. It crashes continuously on me whether I use the app or desktop version. I'm sure it must just be me, but I really am having no luck with it. |
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I hope that I'm allowed to post this link:
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca
It's a good article that uses many graphs and relatively simple language to explain the spread of the virus. |
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By *hav02Man
over a year ago
Glasgow/London |
Frightening stats. Especially if it's that by next weekend the prevalence will be 10x this weekend 
When will people heed the warnings? People are destroying their lives and crippling our NHS. |
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"Polly I’m following your posts with interest - this seems to be the only thread with any decent information to follow amongst the plethora of misinformation out there 
Please keep us updated "
Thank you for the kind comment. I'm just posting the things that i feel driven to by the circumstances. Information and awareness, and their understanding by as many people as possible, are the only things that will help us minimise the fatalities through this crisis. |
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By *oi_LucyCouple
over a year ago
Barbados |
"I hope that I'm allowed to post this link:
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca
It's a good article that uses many graphs and relatively simple language to explain the spread of the virus."
Yup, that is a great link. I posted it when that twazzock Liverpool Lover was originally trying to dispute the maths. For some strange reason, despite the number of cases doubling every 3 days for the past month, he didn't think the numbers would double again in another 3 days.
It wouldn't be such a problem, but he was arguing for his right to go to the gym at the same time. As much as I hate rules and regulations, sometimes they are needed as we can't rely on some people to act in the best interests of the rest of their own accord.
We are 14 days behind Italy. They went into complete lock down what would be yesterday on our timeline. We are still fannying about.
-Matt |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"I hope that I'm allowed to post this link:
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca
It's a good article that uses many graphs and relatively simple language to explain the spread of the virus."
Tried link my browser warns me of suspicious script page loading in the background, we don't need predications it's upto date information with out people talking you news bulletin updates Graphical information and Internet sites that supply the information. Your link would of sent me to a medium, no disrespect, but at the moment we need to take slow steps day by day |
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By *oi_LucyCouple
over a year ago
Barbados |
"I hope that I'm allowed to post this link:
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca
It's a good article that uses many graphs and relatively simple language to explain the spread of the virus.
Tried link my browser warns me of suspicious script page loading in the background, we don't need predications it's upto date information with out people talking you news bulletin updates Graphical information and Internet sites that supply the information. Your link would of sent me to a medium, no disrespect, but at the moment we need to take slow steps day by day "
I can't quite understand what you are trying to say.
If we have predictions, then we have an idea of where we are going to end up. And when you have people saying "it's just the flu" or "I can go to the gym", it is a way to help explain the seriousness of the situation.
-Matt |
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"Frightening stats. Especially if it's that by next weekend the prevalence will be 10x this weekend
When will people heed the warnings? People are destroying their lives and crippling our NHS."
It is. Every week that goes past without proper control of infection causes a times ten in the numbers. Times a hundred in two weeks. Times a thousand in three weeks. Times a million in six weeks.
Eight weeks to go from first infected person entering the united kingdom, until every single person could have been exposed to it.
Or if moderate social distancing had been carried out from day one, cancelling football matches and stadium concerts, stopping people congregating in crowds, keeping schools open but limiting interaction of children - the times ten period could easily have been extended to a month or even two months. Giving far longer to find effective treatments, to increase health service facilities, possibly even to have a vaccine available.
This is the tragedy, the damage to the economy, the cost in human lives. It all could have been avoided but nobody would accept the information that was already available from China. |
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"I hope that I'm allowed to post this link:
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca
It's a good article that uses many graphs and relatively simple language to explain the spread of the virus.
Tried link my browser warns me of suspicious script page loading in the background, we don't need predications it's upto date information with out people talking you news bulletin updates Graphical information and Internet sites that supply the information. Your link would of sent me to a medium, no disrespect, but at the moment we need to take slow steps day by day "
We do not need slow steps, we need harsh decisions making yesterday. This is a problem that doubles, and doubles, and doubles in size while it is being talked about. Any "slow step" that is taken as a "proportionate response" to the appearance of the situation is already out of date, it is already too late. When you are careering down a really steep hill, that gets steeper by the moment, with a cliff edge just ahead, you don't gently press the brake to see how it goes, worrying that you might burn up your brake pads a bit. That might have worked nearer the top of the hill. You press as hard as you can, you pull the hand brake, you steer to deliberately hit the wall away from the cliff. Every moment you delay the decision, every moment you think about it, means that the only chance you've got is disappearing. Bang. You live through it because you're young and strong and the hospital patches you up. Grandma in the back seat is dead though. Everyone is dead in the other car you hit on the way down the hill. Because of the pile up you caused the local hospital is overloaded and a guy needing attention for an unrelated heart problem has died. An ambulance isn't available and a mother dies in childbirth at home because she can't get to the hospital (yes, there's some of those happening this minute in italy - the mother is dead, the baby is dead, the father who tried to deliver the child unaided will never forgive himself and commit suicide at Christmas when he realises that his trip to the football match helped increase the problem).
It's too late for slow steps. |
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By *oi_LucyCouple
over a year ago
Barbados |
This.
Currently the number of deaths worldwide is doubling every 5 days, but that period is shortening. National health systems around the globe will all be reaching capacity in the next few weeks. And then the death rate will rocket as we simply won’t be able to treat anyone. For whatever issue they have. Eg my son needs brain surgery every 3-5 years. His last was 3 years ago. If he needs that if the next few months.... yeah. Not good.
-Matt |
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Most of it could have been avoided back in early February, even earlier if government insisted on refusing people flights to the UK without first being quarantined. But because they didnt issue the restrictions people were made to lose out or fly.
Same with people being forced to work because he didn't restrict people attending work while sick only a guideline which meant employers and insurance companies win again.
The government could have done a hell of a lot more than they did.
But all the conservative supporters were "what do you expect him do?"
If it weren't for greed and Boris saying the UK can "take it on the chin"
UK wouldn't have got into this situation as sick people could have stayed home and not worry about losing their job or having no income.
Now his decisions threaten businesses across the country and many of the population risk being unemployed. If he supported the few in the first place this wouldn't have happened.
People still have to work and people still have to do shopping. They say there's the support service for vulnerable people. Isn't here so yeah what are people to do?
You've got people chucking judgements about and being abusive and people assaulting others over fucking toilet paper! BBC lying over death rates when compared to WHO which are on top of every infected and death count causing more panic!
People not understanding how the virus works to spread the 2m distancing isn't based on touch but contamination from breaths. The fact on surfaces it remains contagious for varying lengths of time depending on surface. The fact droplets remain suspended in the air for 3hrs! Yet people still panic buying in shops and getting on public transport. But people are losing their shit if people have 1 on 1 meets on here. If you go to the supermarkets you're worse than someone who goes to a person's private residence.
Then the key workers sending their kids to school and then you have social services sending kids to school even though they don't need to be there. Spreading this virus from key worker to child to more children who will then spread it to everyone they have contact with. Then have the kids running around in the streets playing when they aren't at school.
So why do people feel validated to judge someone meeting another person. If you do the above you're all part of the distribution of the virus.
I'm sick of the misinformation passed around, I'm sick of the people panic buying, I'm sick of the judgements people keep hurling about especially when people are being hypocritics.
All the be kind agenda out the window real quick. People haven't a clue about mental health issues and isolation issues people face.
Welcome to my world and people wonder why I'm so fucked up. Isolation is a bitch. Give it a few days you'll understand what isolated people feel like. When you crave human connection not a screen come by and tell me how long before you see someone even if it's company sitting across a table.
But it's ok for most of you, you have loved ones and friends who you'll still see because you trust them to stay away if they are sick.
So I beg of people stop judging and be more supportive you don't know what people are going through. Think before you cast that stone. Either practice what you preach and don't be a hypocrit or change how you wish to publicly judge people. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"I hope that I'm allowed to post this link:
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca
It's a good article that uses many graphs and relatively simple language to explain the spread of the virus.
Tried link my browser warns me of suspicious script page loading in the background, we don't need predications it's upto date information with out people talking you news bulletin updates Graphical information and Internet sites that supply the information. Your link would of sent me to a medium, no disrespect, but at the moment we need to take slow steps day by day
I can't quite understand what you are trying to say.
If we have predictions, then we have an idea of where we are going to end up. And when you have people saying "it's just the flu" or "I can go to the gym", it is a way to help explain the seriousness of the situation.
-Matt"
Please this site is a live world pandemic count from top sources online, royal labs started the count in China as it spread.. It's not a Youtube video here it is last I'm saying on this issue it works for me and 32000 viewers through uk night time and upto 80000 viewers during the day |
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"
We do not need slow steps, we need harsh decisions making yesterday. This is a problem that doubles, and doubles, and doubles in size while it is being talked about. Any "slow step" that is taken as a "proportionate response" to the appearance of the situation is already out of date, it is already too late. When you are careering down a really steep hill, that gets steeper by the moment, with a cliff edge just ahead, you don't gently press the brake to see how it goes, worrying that you might burn up your brake pads a bit. That might have worked nearer the top of the hill. You press as hard as you can, you pull the hand brake, you steer to deliberately hit the wall away from the cliff. Every moment you delay the decision, every moment you think about it, means that the only chance you've got is disappearing. Bang. You live through it because you're young and strong and the hospital patches you up. Grandma in the back seat is dead though. Everyone is dead in the other car you hit on the way down the hill. Because of the pile up you caused the local hospital is overloaded and a guy needing attention for an unrelated heart problem has died. An ambulance isn't available and a mother dies in childbirth at home because she can't get to the hospital (yes, there's some of those happening this minute in italy - the mother is dead, the baby is dead, the father who tried to deliver the child unaided will never forgive himself and commit suicide at Christmas when he realises that his trip to the football match helped increase the problem).
It's too late for slow steps. "
Brilliant, brilliant post! |
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"We need instant decisions. Not locking down in a few days. Stuff needs doing immediately. Every day of delay means the final death toll rises by a factor of 1.5, cumulative. Doubles every two days. A factor of ten every week. The two weeks that government left football matches running, schools open, people going to the pub, means a hundred times more people dying than needed to."
Our government don’t really have the legislation or resources to enforce a lockdown  . Sadly people will continue to miss understand the dangers until people they know have died. I was all for isolating vulnerable and the rest carry on, but no more. Case numbers increasing too fast. Anyone can have serious illness from CV19 and NHS will reach critical saturation in 2 weeks. If me of you get infected in the next month, someone may have to choose who gets the resources to stay alive.  |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"Had another look at the predictions I posted seven days ago, 14th March.
Number of diagnosed cases in UK now doubling every two days, according to latest official figures. At just over 200 cases today (saturday). So:
Monday - 400
Wednesday - 800
Friday - 1,600
Next Sunday - 3,200
Week on Tuesday - 6,400
Week on Thursday - 12,800
Week on Saturday - 25,600
Two weeks on Monday - 51,200
Two weeks on Wednesday - 102,400
Or thereabouts. Might reach the 100 thousand level a few days earlier or later, but it will get there unless the government does something very drastic like forced quarantine of cities and stopping all movement.
https://www.fabswingers.com/forum/politics/986901#message_22720753
It's now 21st March. Looks like although the trend was right, I underestimated the spread rate slightly. My prediction was 3200 cases in the UK tomorrow, we are actually just past 4000 cases today.
Nobody likes a smart arse. And I really do wish I had been completely wrong."
I’ve just posted in the “virus” forum about a similar thing |
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"We need instant decisions. Not locking down in a few days. Stuff needs doing immediately. Every day of delay means the final death toll rises by a factor of 1.5, cumulative. Doubles every two days. A factor of ten every week. The two weeks that government left football matches running, schools open, people going to the pub, means a hundred times more people dying than needed to.
Our government don’t really have the legislation or resources to enforce a lockdown . Sadly people will continue to miss understand the dangers until people they know have died. I was all for isolating vulnerable and the rest carry on, but no more. Case numbers increasing too fast. Anyone can have serious illness from CV19 and NHS will reach critical saturation in 2 weeks. If me of you get infected in the next month, someone may have to choose who gets the resources to stay alive. "
Our government IS the legislation. If they tell us to stay in, that's what we will have to do |
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"Had another look at the predictions I posted seven days ago, 14th March.
Number of diagnosed cases in UK now doubling every two days, according to latest official figures. At just over 200 cases today (saturday). So:
Monday - 400
Wednesday - 800
Friday - 1,600
Next Sunday - 3,200
Week on Tuesday - 6,400
Week on Thursday - 12,800
Week on Saturday - 25,600
Two weeks on Monday - 51,200
Two weeks on Wednesday - 102,400
Or thereabouts. Might reach the 100 thousand level a few days earlier or later, but it will get there unless the government does something very drastic like forced quarantine of cities and stopping all movement.
https://www.fabswingers.com/forum/politics/986901#message_22720753
It's now 21st March. Looks like although the trend was right, I underestimated the spread rate slightly. My prediction was 3200 cases in the UK tomorrow, we are actually just past 4000 cases today.
Nobody likes a smart arse. And I really do wish I had been completely wrong."
I downloaded the data and had a quick poke at the numbers[1]. I looked at a 7 day running average since the 5th of March (the day the number of cases went above 100), which means I have figures from the 12th of March (7 days later, so that the running average makes sense).
The doubling time of *confirmed case numbers* has hovered around 3 days + or - 0.2 for most of that time, apart from the latest calculated doubling time, which is 3.5 days. Of course only confirmed cases are reported in those numbers and not everyone gets tested and the testing strategy changed recently to test under fewer circumstances, so the numbers here are almost certainly under-reported. The government's scientific adviser last week suggested that a better guestimate for infections during the exponential growth phase is about 1000 x the number of deaths - so in the order of 300,000 at the moment.
Deaths are much less likely to be under-reported. Looking at those, the doubling rate has been about 1.8 days + or - 0.2 most of last week. On Saturday (21st March) it was 2.3 days and yesterday it was 2.6. Perhaps some signs of progress (higher doubling times mean slower disease spread) but I would think that we need the doubling rate to be below the average length of infection (5.1 days) as a rule of thumb, or else see exponentially growing numbers of people needing care.
[1] For those who are interested, you can download the UK figures in CSV format from this site:
https://coronainfo.uk
To get the doubling time: take the log (base 2) of the case numbers; subtract the previous day's case number from the current one's (this is the slope of the days vs log2(cases) graph); the daily doubling rate is 1 / slope. I did that with a 7 day running average of case numbers to smooth out the jittery variation.
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"The thing to watch for now is whether the increasing awareness of the need for social distancing, and the other measures that the government has (belatedly in my opinion) put in place during this last week are having enough effect.
My figure for next saturday, 28th March, is 32,000 cases in the UK. If the numbers are significantly lower than that, it means that the measures are helping and that if we continue being even more careful, there is a chance of getting it under control.
If the actual number is significantly above 32,000 then things are going to get a lot worse."
It'll take two weeks for anything we do this week to effect the figures. If the figures next week is significantly below 32,000 then it'll be because of measures taken before the start of last week.
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"There ya go Polly .... hopefully that should start to slow things down "
Imho Polly should be running this country.
She is a pretty bloody special human |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"There ya go Polly .... hopefully that should start to slow things down
Imho Polly should be running this country.
She is a pretty bloody special human"
 |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"There ya go Polly .... hopefully that should start to slow things down
Imho Polly should be running this country.
She is a pretty bloody special human"
Careful, bit of brown stuff on
the end of your nose there.  |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"There ya go Polly .... hopefully that should start to slow things down
Imho Polly should be running this country.
She is a pretty bloody special human
Careful, bit of brown stuff on
the end of your nose there. "
I'm sure I'll cope my lovely |
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"There ya go Polly .... hopefully that should start to slow things down
Imho Polly should be running this country.
She is a pretty bloody special human"
This is the only post in this section of the forums I’m following because it’s valid |
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Tomorrow's (today's, Tuesday anyway) job for government is to figure out a way to get money to all those who really need it. Thousands have been thrown out of jobs in the hospitality/tourism/entertainment and other industries in just the last few days. Thousands on zero hours contracts now have no work, no pay, no benefits. It is utterly impossible for these to go through the nightmare of the universal credit system, to wait weeks before getting any money. Many have no savings, nothing to fall back on. Everybody has been told to stay home for the good of the country, but these people need help immediately or there is a certainty of civil unrest.
I have no idea what the best way of fixing this would be, a few ideas have been suggested. Maybe universal basic income? Very urgent that this is solved though. |
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By *litterbabeWoman
over a year ago
hiding from cock pics. |
There is talk, I believe, if something similar to the system being implemented for employed people who are being retained and getting 80% of their wages for the self employed workers.
I believe it's in discussion that their profit for the past 3 years would be averaged and potentially they would receive 80% of it up to a maximum of just under £3,000 a month.
That doesn't cater for everybody though in the various situations you mentioned. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"Had another look at the predictions I posted seven days ago, 14th March.
Number of diagnosed cases in UK now doubling every two days, according to latest official figures. At just over 200 cases today (saturday). So:
Monday - 400
Wednesday - 800
Friday - 1,600
Next Sunday - 3,200
Week on Tuesday - 6,400
Week on Thursday - 12,800
Week on Saturday - 25,600
Two weeks on Monday - 51,200
Two weeks on Wednesday - 102,400
Or thereabouts. Might reach the 100 thousand level a few days earlier or later, but it will get there unless the government does something very drastic like forced quarantine of cities and stopping all movement.
https://www.fabswingers.com/forum/politics/986901#message_22720753
It's now 21st March. Looks like although the trend was right, I underestimated the spread rate slightly. My prediction was 3200 cases in the UK tomorrow, we are actually just past 4000 cases today.
Nobody likes a smart arse. And I really do wish I had been completely wrong.
I’ve just posted in the “virus” forum about a similar thing "
I predict that be talking out the Uranus.
It's an organism not orgasm,
I like to use projected infection cases than prediction, there is things to consider how the community is with health and lifestyle statics, and location
I try explain why
Day 1 Blackpool, 100 people infected remains in area people are healthy virus doesn't gain any additional infection cases, lifestyle night clubs, rides, sex, virus infects 80 infection cases
Day 1 180 cases
Day 2 80 infected people travel to London 20 more infections heading other places, 80 infected now in London health hygiene gives 80 more, lifestyle major city bonus 100 infections so a statical table looks like this
Day 1 180
Day 2 440 - 280 actual cases as 180 where already infected, you can see a increase of 100.
Day 3
Blackpool 50 infection cases severe in hospital so you only start with 50 which can infect blackpool
In London 80 fly to France and 100 to America
The 20 from the train ended in Birmingham, you follow the pattern where they will be a explosion of cases the day after returns you expect another 1000 but less.
I made the mistake I was right till Saturday when over 1000 cases increased when the next day come I was upset I thought Uk wasn't given Royallab information it was shock of how many it jumped too.
All I'm saying is call it something else prediction/ forecast is like prediction.
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"Had another look at the predictions I posted seven days ago, 14th March.
Number of diagnosed cases in UK now doubling every two days, according to latest official figures. At just over 200 cases today (saturday). So:
Monday - 400
Wednesday - 800
Friday - 1,600
Next Sunday - 3,200
Week on Tuesday - 6,400
Week on Thursday - 12,800
Week on Saturday - 25,600
Two weeks on Monday - 51,200
Two weeks on Wednesday - 102,400
Or thereabouts. Might reach the 100 thousand level a few days earlier or later, but it will get there unless the government does something very drastic like forced quarantine of cities and stopping all movement.
https://www.fabswingers.com/forum/politics/986901#message_22720753
It's now 21st March. Looks like although the trend was right, I underestimated the spread rate slightly. My prediction was 3200 cases in the UK tomorrow, we are actually just past 4000 cases today.
Nobody likes a smart arse. And I really do wish I had been completely wrong.
I’ve just posted in the “virus” forum about a similar thing
I predict that be talking out the Uranus.
It's an organism not orgasm,
I like to use projected infection cases than prediction, there is things to consider how the community is with health and lifestyle statics, and location
I try explain why
Day 1 Blackpool, 100 people infected remains in area people are healthy virus doesn't gain any additional infection cases, lifestyle night clubs, rides, sex, virus infects 80 infection cases
Day 1 180 cases
Day 2 80 infected people travel to London 20 more infections heading other places, 80 infected now in London health hygiene gives 80 more, lifestyle major city bonus 100 infections so a statical table looks like this
Day 1 180
Day 2 440 - 280 actual cases as 180 where already infected, you can see a increase of 100.
Day 3
Blackpool 50 infection cases severe in hospital so you only start with 50 which can infect blackpool
In London 80 fly to France and 100 to America
The 20 from the train ended in Birmingham, you follow the pattern where they will be a explosion of cases the day after returns you expect another 1000 but less.
I made the mistake I was right till Saturday when over 1000 cases increased when the next day come I was upset I thought Uk wasn't given Royallab information it was shock of how many it jumped too.
All I'm saying is call it something else prediction/ forecast is like prediction.
"
Nit picking at this point in time is neither helpful nor charitable. Please don’t do it |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"I hope that I'm allowed to post this link:
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca
It's a good article that uses many graphs and relatively simple language to explain the spread of the virus.
Yup, that is a great link. I posted it when that twazzock Liverpool Lover was originally trying to dispute the maths. For some strange reason, despite the number of cases doubling every 3 days for the past month, he didn't think the numbers would double again in another 3 days.
It wouldn't be such a problem, but he was arguing for his right to go to the gym at the same time. As much as I hate rules and regulations, sometimes they are needed as we can't rely on some people to act in the best interests of the rest of their own accord.
We are 14 days behind Italy. They went into complete lock down what would be yesterday on our timeline. We are still fannying about.
-Matt"
I might be wrong due to multitasking, but a Dr on the news last night said every five days. |
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By *oi_LucyCouple
over a year ago
Barbados |
"
I like to use projected infection cases than prediction, there is things to consider how the community is with health and lifestyle statics, and location
I try explain why
Day 1 Blackpool, 100 people infected remains in area people are healthy virus doesn't gain any additional infection cases, lifestyle night clubs, rides, sex, virus infects 80 infection cases
Day 1 180 cases
Day 2 80 infected people travel to London 20 more infections heading other places, 80 infected now in London health hygiene gives 80 more, lifestyle major city bonus 100 infections so a statical table looks like this
Day 1 180
Day 2 440 - 280 actual cases as 180 where already infected, you can see a increase of 100.
Day 3
Blackpool 50 infection cases severe in hospital so you only start with 50 which can infect blackpool
In London 80 fly to France and 100 to America
The 20 from the train ended in Birmingham, you follow the pattern where they will be a explosion of cases the day after returns you expect another 1000 but less.
I made the mistake I was right till Saturday when over 1000 cases increased when the next day come I was upset I thought Uk wasn't given Royallab information it was shock of how many it jumped too.
All I'm saying is call it something else prediction/ forecast is like prediction.
"
That makes no real difference in the grand scheme of things. The numbers reported are for the UK as a whole. ie they are average over the whole UK. The rate of spread (R0) will be higher in some areas and lower in others.
-Matt |
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By *oi_LucyCouple
over a year ago
Barbados |
"I hope that I'm allowed to post this link:
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca
It's a good article that uses many graphs and relatively simple language to explain the spread of the virus.
Yup, that is a great link. I posted it when that twazzock Liverpool Lover was originally trying to dispute the maths. For some strange reason, despite the number of cases doubling every 3 days for the past month, he didn't think the numbers would double again in another 3 days.
It wouldn't be such a problem, but he was arguing for his right to go to the gym at the same time. As much as I hate rules and regulations, sometimes they are needed as we can't rely on some people to act in the best interests of the rest of their own accord.
We are 14 days behind Italy. They went into complete lock down what would be yesterday on our timeline. We are still fannying about.
-Matt
I might be wrong due to multitasking, but a Dr on the news last night said every five days. "
The rate has showed an ever so slight sign of slowing down, but still it is about 3 days on average at the moment.
-Matt |
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"
I might be wrong due to multitasking, but a Dr on the news last night said every five days.
The rate has showed an ever so slight sign of slowing down, but still it is about 3 days on average at the moment.
"
Looking over a 7 day average, I get a doubling time for reported cases of 3.6 yesterday. It was 3.5 the day before that, and 3.45 the day before that. So improving, at least on the confirmed cases count. We haven't been doing social distancing for long enough to see how that will affect the figures. Lockdown for even less time.
We've been doubling faster in terms of deaths but thankfully that's improving too. 3.0 yesterday, 2.6 the day before that, 2.3 the day before that. |
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"
I might be wrong due to multitasking, but a Dr on the news last night said every five days.
The rate has showed an ever so slight sign of slowing down, but still it is about 3 days on average at the moment.
Looking over a 7 day average, I get a doubling time for reported cases of 3.6 yesterday. It was 3.5 the day before that, and 3.45 the day before that. So improving, at least on the confirmed cases count. We haven't been doing social distancing for long enough to see how that will affect the figures. Lockdown for even less time.
We've been doubling faster in terms of deaths but thankfully that's improving too. 3.0 yesterday, 2.6 the day before that, 2.3 the day before that."
The last few days of people treating closures as an excuse for extra jolly holidays will have a detrimental effect two weeks down the line, but hopefully after that we should see the strict lockdown start to improve things. I just hope that it has happened in time. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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Please please be cautious with these figures. This country is only testing patients that have been hospitalised ( Prince Charles apart) and not chasing up in contacts therefore we are basing predications on a very small but probably more vulnerable portion of the country’s population in comparison to other countries.
We desperately need more testing , both PCR and antibody, to see where we stand with what sort of effect this is having on the population |
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"Please please be cautious with these figures. This country is only testing patients that have been hospitalised ( Prince Charles apart) and not chasing up in contacts therefore we are basing predications on a very small but probably more vulnerable portion of the country’s population in comparison to other countries.
We desperately need more testing , both PCR and antibody, to see where we stand with what sort of effect this is having on the population "
Yes, any figures are likely an underestimate due to mild symptoms plus lack of testing. |
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"Please please be cautious with these figures. This country is only testing patients that have been hospitalised ( Prince Charles apart) and not chasing up in contacts
"
Very true. And testing/reporting rates for cases may vary from region to region as well as, as far as I can see in the data, greater under-reporting on weekend days.
On the other hand the deaths are much more likely to be reported accurately.
Some back-tracing that the Chinese authorities did for the Wuhan cases, and some maths to do with doubling times[1], and a statement or two by our Chief Medical Officer and our Chief Science Adviser all suggest that, while number of deaths is doubling at about the rate ours is, a good guess for the true number of active cases is between 500 and 1000 times the number of reported deaths. So for the UK using the figures from yesterday (25/03/2020) that would be somewhere between 200,000 and 400,000.
[1] There's quite a good explanation of using the doubling time of deaths to reverse engineer the true active case load here:
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca
"
We desperately need more testing , both PCR and antibody, to see where we stand with what sort of effect this is having on the population "
Yes. Even the government is officially with you on that one - they have called the immanent (I hope) introduction of much scaled up testing - including PCR test - a "game changer". Reading between the lines, I think that the slightly strange criteria for testing have been the result of trying to ration a short supply of testing capacity. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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What is needed is just a small scale study of testing for antibody just to see what percentage of the population already have been exposed... probably if well selected only 2-3000 people. There are enough tests to do this now.
Everyone is concentrating on PCR testing but antibody testing is equally useful |
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"What is needed is just a small scale study of testing for antibody just to see what percentage of the population already have been exposed... probably if well selected only 2-3000 people. There are enough tests to do this now.
Everyone is concentrating on PCR testing but antibody testing is equally useful"
Oops - I reread my post and realised I wrote PCR test but I meant antibody test. |
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By *obka3Couple
over a year ago
bournemouth |
"What is needed is just a small scale study of testing for antibody just to see what percentage of the population already have been exposed... probably if well selected only 2-3000 people. There are enough tests to do this now.
Everyone is concentrating on PCR testing but antibody testing is equally useful"
Saw a headline from a report by oxford uni saying up to half could be infected. We have heard of 5 confirmed cases today |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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https://www.biopanda.co.uk/php/products/rapid/infectious_diseases/covid19.php
This company were exporting kits until recently - now that’s stopped.
This government is acting now but it’s maddening to this these kits have been exported rather than be stocked up for UK use. |
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Financial Times website has been posting a graph each day showing the comparitive death rates from the top twenty or so affected countries. Each line is started at an equivalent point in time, when ten deaths have occurred, and is plotted with a logarithmic vertical scale of total number of deaths. This gives a direct comparison of just how bad it is for each country, shows the future trend, demonstrates which countries have managed to put in place effective control measures.
You should be able to find it easily if you google financial times covid graph.
The line for the UK appears to be following the same trajectory as italy but a couple of weeks behind. If the current measures to reduce social contact are effective, i would expect to see our line starting to get less steep in a week or so. By that time there will have been at least 10,000 deaths here. And the slope of the line getting less steep does not mean the deaths stop at that point, deaths will continue, and the number of deaths each day will probably still be increasing, but just not running away quite as fast. The crisis here will only be over when we see the death rate diminish, and we have something like two clear weeks with no new deaths due to covid-19 and it's complications. |
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this is an interesting page to check: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1eTKeK
9vRxgw0KhvKxPCaDrfaHnxQP-n9TsLzsEymviY/htmlview
but all without spaces for some reason k and 9 cannot be posted sidebyside |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"Financial Times website has been posting a graph each day showing the comparitive death rates from the top twenty or so affected countries. Each line is started at an equivalent point in time, when ten deaths have occurred, and is plotted with a logarithmic vertical scale of total number of deaths. This gives a direct comparison of just how bad it is for each country, shows the future trend, demonstrates which countries have managed to put in place effective control measures.
You should be able to find it easily if you google financial times covid graph.
The line for the UK appears to be following the same trajectory as italy but a couple of weeks behind. If the current measures to reduce social contact are effective, i would expect to see our line starting to get less steep in a week or so. By that time there will have been at least 10,000 deaths here. And the slope of the line getting less steep does not mean the deaths stop at that point, deaths will continue, and the number of deaths each day will probably still be increasing, but just not running away quite as fast. The crisis here will only be over when we see the death rate diminish, and we have something like two clear weeks with no new deaths due to covid-19 and it's complications."
Is this not the law of diminishing returns?
Those who don't isolate will either get infected and recover or get infected and expire.
Those who do isolate won't spread the virus.
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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We know the infection rate reports are incorrect because not everyone is being tested.
Now a report on the number of deaths...
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/04/why-what-we-think-we-know-about-the-uks-coronavirus-death-toll-is-wrong |
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"Financial Times website has been posting a graph each day showing the comparitive death rates from the top twenty or so affected countries. Each line is started at an equivalent point in time, when ten deaths have occurred, and is plotted with a logarithmic vertical scale of total number of deaths. This gives a direct comparison of just how bad it is for each country, shows the future trend, demonstrates which countries have managed to put in place effective control measures.
You should be able to find it easily if you google financial times covid graph.
The line for the UK appears to be following the same trajectory as italy but a couple of weeks behind. If the current measures to reduce social contact are effective, i would expect to see our line starting to get less steep in a week or so. By that time there will have been at least 10,000 deaths here. And the slope of the line getting less steep does not mean the deaths stop at that point, deaths will continue, and the number of deaths each day will probably still be increasing, but just not running away quite as fast. The crisis here will only be over when we see the death rate diminish, and we have something like two clear weeks with no new deaths due to covid-19 and it's complications."
Erudite posting as usual polly |
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"this is an interesting page to check: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1eTKeK
9vRxgw0KhvKxPCaDrfaHnxQP-n9TsLzsEymviY/htmlview
but all without spaces for some reason k and 9 cannot be posted sidebyside"
Think about it...  |
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"We know the infection rate reports are incorrect because not everyone is being tested.
Now a report on the number of deaths...
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/04/why-what-we-think-we-know-about-the-uks-coronavirus-death-toll-is-wrong"
Cheers..
Interesting when you look at the day (29th Mar) they highlight where reported deaths via the daily government briefing was 159 and since been corrected up to 460..
Are they still only giving the reported deaths (albeit to be corrected later) from hospitals? |
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By *hav02Man
over a year ago
Glasgow/London |
I heard that a current trajectory for deaths will hit 10k by mid/end of the week... That's frightening though.
Yesterday was a huge leap.
I wonder if this is because of ITU capacity, or natural course of the virus. |
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"...when we see the death rate diminish, and we have something like two clear weeks with no new deaths due to covid-19 and it's complications.
Is this not the law of diminishing returns?
Those who don't isolate will either get infected and recover or get infected and expire.
Those who do isolate won't spread the virus.
"
Not the law of diminishing returns: that would be when something grows less than linearly in the face of some constraint. It is similar though: something makes it more difficult for the virus to propagate (self isolation leading to fewer interactions, fewer uninfected hosts, or something like that) leading to less than exponential growth.
For an otherwise unimpeded virus, the main thing that eventually slows it down is a decreasing number of infectable hosts. This leads to a sort of elongated 's' shaped curve in a graph of infections which I recently found out is called a logistic curve. |
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"At some point 80 % need to catch it so the old and vulnerable are safer, the only stat that interests me is deaths, we need to keep that as low as possible by keeping those at high risk safe and isolated not the healthy but scared 50 and under hiding away self isolating for no reason. The more of us who are very low risk who catch it makes it safer for our mums and dads and grandparents and those suffering from cancer etc
Some of the low risk will end up with life threatening versions of it. I understand what you're saying and have sympathy for it, but it's not quite that simple.
Nothing is ever simple but it's a fact that until a vaccine is available and in enough quantities to give to all who haven't had the virus and that point is a year away probably we have to try and keep the economy from failing completely and at the same time avoiding riots over food etc, some are going to die from the virus, maybe even me, it's a price I'm willing to pay for the future life of my grandkids,I dont want them living in conditions like we see in Syria etc "
That clearly will not happen
We are not a 3rd world country.
I disagree completely it's a price worth paying..I wouldnt sacrifice my parent for some hypopethical situation. |
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"Most of it could have been avoided back in early February, even earlier if government insisted on refusing people flights to the UK without first being quarantined. But because they didnt issue the restrictions people were made to lose out or fly.
Same with people being forced to work because he didn't restrict people attending work while sick only a guideline which meant employers and insurance companies win again.
The government could have done a hell of a lot more than they did.
But all the conservative supporters were "what do you expect him do?"
If it weren't for greed and Boris saying the UK can "take it on the chin"
UK wouldn't have got into this situation as sick people could have stayed home and not worry about losing their job or having no income.
Now his decisions threaten businesses across the country and many of the population risk being unemployed. If he supported the few in the first place this wouldn't have happened.
People still have to work and people still have to do shopping. They say there's the support service for vulnerable people. Isn't here so yeah what are people to do?
You've got people chucking judgements about and being abusive and people assaulting others over fucking toilet paper! BBC lying over death rates when compared to WHO which are on top of every infected and death count causing more panic!
People not understanding how the virus works to spread the 2m distancing isn't based on touch but contamination from breaths. The fact on surfaces it remains contagious for varying lengths of time depending on surface. The fact droplets remain suspended in the air for 3hrs! Yet people still panic buying in shops and getting on public transport. But people are losing their shit if people have 1 on 1 meets on here. If you go to the supermarkets you're worse than someone who goes to a person's private residence.
Then the key workers sending their kids to school and then you have social services sending kids to school even though they don't need to be there. Spreading this virus from key worker to child to more children who will then spread it to everyone they have contact with. Then have the kids running around in the streets playing when they aren't at school.
So why do people feel validated to judge someone meeting another person. If you do the above you're all part of the distribution of the virus.
I'm sick of the misinformation passed around, I'm sick of the people panic buying, I'm sick of the judgements people keep hurling about especially when people are being hypocritics.
All the be kind agenda out the window real quick. People haven't a clue about mental health issues and isolation issues people face.
Welcome to my world and people wonder why I'm so fucked up. Isolation is a bitch. Give it a few days you'll understand what isolated people feel like. When you crave human connection not a screen come by and tell me how long before you see someone even if it's company sitting across a table.
But it's ok for most of you, you have loved ones and friends who you'll still see because you trust them to stay away if they are sick.
So I beg of people stop judging and be more supportive you don't know what people are going through. Think before you cast that stone. Either practice what you preach and don't be a hypocrit or change how you wish to publicly judge people. "
There needs to big questions asked once this is over. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"We know the infection rate reports are incorrect because not everyone is being tested.
Now a report on the number of deaths...
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/04/why-what-we-think-we-know-about-the-uks-coronavirus-death-toll-is-wrong
Cheers..
Interesting when you look at the day (29th Mar) they highlight where reported deaths via the daily government briefing was 159 and since been corrected up to 460..
Are they still only giving the reported deaths (albeit to be corrected later) from hospitals? "
They are giving deaths of those who had tested positive prior to death.
This is an incorrect figure for two reasons.
It is too low because people are dying in places other than hospitals and/or without being tested.
It is too high because some of the deaths are due to other causes but they just happened to have the virus.
Maybe these under/over estimates balance out...maybe not....who knows? The finally reported figures are all we can go on. |
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"We know the infection rate reports are incorrect because not everyone is being tested.
Now a report on the number of deaths...
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/04/why-what-we-think-we-know-about-the-uks-coronavirus-death-toll-is-wrong
Cheers..
Interesting when you look at the day (29th Mar) they highlight where reported deaths via the daily government briefing was 159 and since been corrected up to 460..
Are they still only giving the reported deaths (albeit to be corrected later) from hospitals?
They are giving deaths of those who had tested positive prior to death.
This is an incorrect figure for two reasons.
It is too low because people are dying in places other than hospitals and/or without being tested.
It is too high because some of the deaths are due to other causes but they just happened to have the virus.
Maybe these under/over estimates balance out...maybe not....who knows? The finally reported figures are all we can go on."
This, from today’s Guardian:
“Every day we get one big figure for deaths occurring in the UK. Everyone jumps on this number, taking it to be the latest toll. However NHS England figures – which currently make up the bulk of UK deaths – in fact reflect the day on which the death was reported, not the actual date of death, which is usually days, sometimes weeks, before it appears in the figures.
The truth is we don’t know how many deaths have taken place the previous day. In fact the headline figure is likely to under-report the number of deaths that actually happened the previous day.
The number we hear about usually counts deaths which took place at an earlier date. The difference matters because by undercounting the number of deaths we are skewing the curve.
————
On 30 March, NHS England reported 159 deaths in the 24 hours to 5pm on Sunday 29 March. However, the actual number of people who died in that 24-hour period was revised up to 401 in Thursday’s report and again to 463 on Friday as more deaths which occurred on that date were reported. And this figure could be revised up again as more deaths come to light.” |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"Can someone explain Swedish example?
Is it because whatever we do is irrelevant?"
No bar/pub/restaurant closures there yet. Growth curve quite low.
No explanation....younger/fitter population?? |
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"They’ll be a blackout, your internet and electric will be down, while some very high profile people are arrested for crimes against humanity.  "
Not bothered about electricity, internet or blackouts. I just want to see my mum who is 80 and lives alone but i am not allowed to visit her |
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I do wonder how many more deaths there are in the UK above the usual 10,000 a week
Surely we need these figures to give a comparative judgement on the pandemic
Maybe the same numbers just different causes? |
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"I do wonder how many more deaths there are in the UK above the usual 10,000 a week
Surely we need these figures to give a comparative judgement on the pandemic
Maybe the same numbers just different causes?"
Look at the ONS data released earlier this week. Very interesting reading on the 5yr average deaths vs the current. For the month of March, deaths were marginally below the 5yr average. |
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"I do wonder how many more deaths there are in the UK above the usual 10,000 a week
Surely we need these figures to give a comparative judgement on the pandemic
Maybe the same numbers just different causes?
Look at the ONS data released earlier this week. Very interesting reading on the 5yr average deaths vs the current. For the month of March, deaths were marginally below the 5yr average. "
I have
Thats what I noticed..
It does seem project fear from the figures so far ..
Maybe change over time? |
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"I do wonder how many more deaths there are in the UK above the usual 10,000 a week
Surely we need these figures to give a comparative judgement on the pandemic
Maybe the same numbers just different causes?
Look at the ONS data released earlier this week. Very interesting reading on the 5yr average deaths vs the current. For the month of March, deaths were marginally below the 5yr average.
I have
Thats what I noticed..
It does seem project fear from the figures so far ..
Maybe change over time?"
I think deaths per week/month are generally lower in the late spring/summer, so it's possible that we will experience excess deaths than average in future months, yes. But even that might not bring it above the 5yr average annual total? No one knows until its over and we can look back at the data and compare. The ONS data was certainly interesting for me, anyway. |
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By *xycpl699Couple
over a year ago
kilmarnock |
"Polly I’m following your posts with interest - this seems to be the only thread with any decent information to follow amongst the plethora of misinformation out there
Please keep us updated yes please do "
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"Also why arent the media reporting on the Swedish example ,when so far their numbers are comparable ?"
There are some articles, although generally on news outlets behind paywalls that I wasn't willing to enter so I'm afraid I can't bring much in the way of insight from them.
What I can say is that:
1. Perhaps one might expect a slower spread in Sweden relative to many other European countries (and the UK!) because they have a lower population density than most - meaning that keeping a physical distance from one another is easier and more natural, even in the absence of lockdown.
2. The UK's lockdown hasn't been going on long enough to have much of an effect yet. Thus "their numbers are comparable" to ours just means that their numbers (by which I mean growth rates and infection rate per head) under not many restrictions are similar to our numbers under not many restrictions, which is not that surprising really.
3. From what I could read, Sweden are still doing test, trace and isolate, which is recommended by the WHO as an extremely effective infection control mechanism so it's not as if they're doing nothing. Reading between the lines, I think our government would have liked to be doing that too but the level of infection outstripped our very limited testing capacity forcing us to abandon that tactic.
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"I do wonder how many more deaths there are in the UK above the usual 10,000 a week
Surely we need these figures to give a comparative judgement on the pandemic
Maybe the same numbers just different causes?"
The number of people affected by coronavirus was hardly any last month when compared to these national numbers - you'd hardly notice a blip in the graphs. This month I would expect it to be a different story.
Working on the reported numbers for today (which is the best we have right now), we'd be at approximately 5,000 covid-19 deaths per week if the same number per day died every day for the week. Of course the number of deaths per day isn't sitting still: it's still rising. In fact it's doubling every 3 days at the moment, or more than quadrupling every week. If that continued we'd expect to be at about 3,000 deaths per day (~20,000 per week) in a week's time. And then about 80,000 - 100,000 per week the week after that.
So, comparing to our usual death rate, coronavirus should bump us up to about 1.5 to 2 times our usual rate this week, then about 10 times our usual death rate the week after that. So certainly something significant.
Of course the exponential increase (doubling every 3 days) won't last forever and I think we all hope that the social distancing measures will start "flattening the curve" soon - and *well before* we reach those sorts of weekly death rates. The expectation is that we should see an effect from 2 - 3 weeks after starting. Which I think means from next week - although I'm pretty sure a lot of people started being a lot more careful than usual some time before lockdown officially started.
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By *eeBee67Man
over a year ago
Masked and Distant |
Be careful taking individual days to support your quadrupling figures. Individual days should not be taken to support the calculation, but the mean /
average curve. A high increase yes but not quadrupling, from what I see. |
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"Be careful taking individual days to support your quadrupling figures. Individual days should not be taken to support the calculation, but the mean /
average curve. A high increase yes but not quadrupling, from what I see."
Actually the doubling time of around 3 days was from a rolling 3 day average. I did make the mistake of judging it as just under 3 days when it is, in fact, just over. Which isn't as bad but still not good - still roughly quadrupling every week.
And we've been on that kind of growth rate (apart from the odd daily wobble) or higher since we had 10 deaths, which was three and a half weeks ago.
There's a good graph of it here:
https://blog.datawrapper.de/coronaviruscharts/
(Scroll down to get there).
I should be clear that I don't actually expect this kind of growth for much longer: we should end up similar to Italy, Spain and France, who all locked down at a similar time in terms of number of deaths, and ended up peaking at 1,000 - 1,500 deaths per day.
Which is roughly the same as doubling the average weekly death rate for a few weeks, according to the 10,000 per week figure above.
If we didn't do anything to try to slow the virus, I think it reasonably likely that we would have hit tens of thousands of deaths per day before the virus became self limiting due to the probability of encountering infected or immune people. |
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By *lan MCouple
over a year ago
southampton |
Its all got out of control this virus..govt should have taken steps to isolate people coming into this country way back in Jan after seeing what was happening in China...so many experts appearing daily on the news saying what we should do...but were were they 2 months ago ?... |
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"Its all got out of control this virus..govt should have taken steps to isolate people coming into this country way back in Jan after seeing what was happening in China...so many experts appearing daily on the news saying what we should do...but were were they 2 months ago ?... "
Two months ago epidemiologists, doctors, mathematicians, scientists of all types were flagging up that there was a problem and trying to get government to prepare. Two months ago the highest levels of government were ignoring advice and deciding amongst themselves that it was far cheaper to let a few people die. Two months ago most of the members of the public were saying "it's only a bit of flu", "these foreigners have got rubbish hospitals, not like us", "nothing is going to stop me going to my football matches", and mocking everyone that was trying to raise alarm. |
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"Its all got out of control this virus..govt should have taken steps to isolate people coming into this country way back in Jan after seeing what was happening in China...so many experts appearing daily on the news saying what we should do...but were were they 2 months ago ?... "
Boris was too busy celebrating brexit. |
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By *lan MCouple
over a year ago
southampton |
Add to it the flood crises..bad decision not acting earlier isolating people bringing it in...espec after the warning from the problems caused is Salisbury after the Novichok disaster ! |
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By *hav02Man
over a year ago
Glasgow/London |
"Its all got out of control this virus..govt should have taken steps to isolate people coming into this country way back in Jan after seeing what was happening in China...so many experts appearing daily on the news saying what we should do...but were were they 2 months ago ?...
Two months ago epidemiologists, doctors, mathematicians, scientists of all types were flagging up that there was a problem and trying to get government to prepare. Two months ago the highest levels of government were ignoring advice and deciding amongst themselves that it was far cheaper to let a few people die. Two months ago most of the members of the public were saying "it's only a bit of flu", "these foreigners have got rubbish hospitals, not like us", "nothing is going to stop me going to my football matches", and mocking everyone that was trying to raise alarm."
Do you think the British people would have listened and obeyed if lock down was initiated 2 weeks earlier? There was a huuuuge level of apathy and denial.. And if it was more successful, people would probably complain that lockdown was unnecessary and OTT.... |
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By *lan MCouple
over a year ago
southampton |
We all seen what was happening in China on the news...maybe the Army should have been brought in..that certainly brings it home how bad it can get..like France..lots of armed troops on show.!. |
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