"Are we heading to another lock down will we be in one before christmas again. Talk is out there guys what you all think?"
Lets put it like this... daily casesare about 900 - 1000 per day and bed occupancy in the NHS is rising by 1000 in 10 days. Unless occupancy comes down then there will soon be pressure on the NHS. I worked out last year that the NHS beds available were 41,500 beds if you counted on Medical, surgical and orthopaedic beds. We ae currently about 20-25% full with covid. So at what point will there be an issue... Thats the big question which will determine a lockdown... Saying that I think potentially mid to late October is likely. An assessment will need to made by the NHS itself and they will need to ask for it as pressure rises. First sign will be operations cancelled due to lack of beds available. |
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"Are we heading to another lock down will we be in one before christmas again. Talk is out there guys what you all think?
Lets put it like this... daily casesare about 900 - 1000 per day and bed occupancy in the NHS is rising by 1000 in 10 days. Unless occupancy comes down then there will soon be pressure on the NHS. I worked out last year that the NHS beds available were 41,500 beds if you counted on Medical, surgical and orthopaedic beds. We ae currently about 20-25% full with covid. So at what point will there be an issue... Thats the big question which will determine a lockdown... Saying that I think potentially mid to late October is likely. An assessment will need to made by the NHS itself and they will need to ask for it as pressure rises. First sign will be operations cancelled due to lack of beds available."
Odd you saying you are 20/25% full. A report on the BBC states:
"Only around 7% of hospital beds are occupied by Covid patients, but if that keeps increasing along with the return of normal winter viruses, hospitals will have to start rationing other types of care more"
That was posted 3 days ago
Do you mean the hospital you personally work at are at that capacity? |
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There has been talk of a two week "firebreak" at the end of October to coincide with half term. I don't know what that will entail if it goes ahead.
I feel sorry for parents who don't know whether they're going to need to arrange child care |
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"There has been talk of a two week "firebreak" at the end of October to coincide with half term. I don't know what that will entail if it goes ahead.
I feel sorry for parents who don't know whether they're going to need to arrange child care"
Aye, like that 4 weeks to flatten the curve 18 month's ago lol |
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They have consistently not acted until too late, resulting in then having to take more drastic measures and for much longer each time. Is it likely that their long term pattern will be broken? And, after they have intimated that they are unlikely to lockdown again, unless absolutely essential. My guess is that England won't do it, if Wales and Scotland won't - Northern Ireland is probably viewed by them as less important  and visible.
We can't say, only really knowing their form. Announcements are proposed for this week, on the winter plan. Seemingly, boosters for a very at risk minority.
There perhaps should have been a minimum extra taxation announcement this past week, for the health and social care plan, that got voted through the next day. The plan was predominantly for some extra spending on the NHS, paid for by workers and a little by some employers. If it had been proposed that additional taxes would be needed, if the pandemic increases its devastating impact, it may have been a bit more realistic and prophetic.
What we don't know is whether if things got worse, more of the unvaxxed would go on to get vaccinated - that would pull down hospital admissions.
Anything could happen
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"If hospital numbers continue to rise at the current rate, I would have to say it's increasingly likely. "
I agree - and I'm so frustrated that it's come to this again. Not surprised, but frustrated. |
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"This is what happens, the rumours leak months/weeks in advance to soften the public up so that when its announced people just accept it."
Rumours? We can see the stats and use our judgement based on these. Whilst I have supported previous lockdowns, nothing I see makes me think that another lockdown is required. Here is Scotland cases have jumped since the schools went back. There is no sign of the same in England yet (comparing cases with Scotland vs England a week or 2 after the return of kids in each country).
However, if flu starts to impact plus covid, winter could be difficult so there may be a return of some restrictions but we're in a much better place than we were last year in terms of numbers of people with immunity either natural or from vaccine.
I think people need to chill a bit on both sides... |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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It surfaced this time sept Oct time last year about a “circuit breaker” and they denied it at the time, and then it happened, they’re denying it again but I don’t know what to believe. Time will tell I guess. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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Our nearest big hospital is in crisis already. Seriously unwell people are being sent home because there are no beds available. I know one such person, so I know it's definitely true. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"Are we heading to another lock down will we be in one before christmas again. Talk is out there guys what you all think?
I doubt it, as in no more Lock-Downs...It's called living with C19. The economy won't survive... Deaths are low... Vaccines have proven to be effective as in... Symptoms are quite mild & no terminal effects for many...  Really!!! Long Covid? That really scares me, they don’t even have a clue how long it could last for some. Possibly even the rest of their lives "
Long Covid. I had Covid back in January.. just getting a shed load of tests, bloods done to get diagnosed properly to see if i have long covid.. 9 months on.. completely ph-ucked...
But some still think it doesnt exist.. |
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Its difficult to tell, it is incredibly frustrating that we have gone this way again, we are all perfectly capable of keeping this low but we choose not to, we need to be told to do stuff rather than do it for ourselves, if we had kept mass social distancing, face coverings and sanitising things would be different...
Instead we wait for govt to tell us what to do when the shit hits the fan
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"Sunday Times tomorrow: Vaccine Passports to be scrapped
Also being reported tonight, many of the emergency covid powers will not be extended
"
There's conflicting messages coming out Re vaccine passports
It's almost as if the government is purposefully muddying the water's so the public don't know what's going on
But no, they're completely trustworthy and any idea that they're anything other is dangerous right wing conspiracy talk
Don't forget the basics. How can you tell of a politician is lying? Their lips are moving |
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"Its difficult to tell, it is incredibly frustrating that we have gone this way again, we are all perfectly capable of keeping this low but we choose not to, we need to be told to do stuff rather than do it for ourselves, if we had kept mass social distancing, face coverings and sanitising things would be different...
Instead we wait for govt to tell us what to do when the shit hits the fan
"
Yes, we were at an event on Friday and literally nobody but us was taking any precautions at all.
I went to the loo. It clearly said on the door "one in, one out". A woman opened the door as I was washing my hands, called to her friend that there were two cubicles and they both came in , blocking my exit  . I just stood and looked at them, speechless. They then sort of milled about in a tiny space so that I had to sort of squeeze past them to get out. These women and their ilk are a major part of the reason covid continues to spread. |
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Our eldest daughter works in the NHS so this time isn’t a criticism of them, but it’s obvious that despite 80% of the population being jabbed that this thing isn’t going away.
If we keep having lockdowns because the NHS can’t cope then we should have been having them for the past 30 years then !
At some stage we have to live with this virus and start living our lives, my mum died during the bad flu year a couple of years ago when there was 50,000 excess flu deaths and it was claimed the NHS was falling over then !
It’s the 5th biggest employer in the world and absorbs 20% of the income tax we pay, the NHS does a good job on the whole but can we stop ‘lording’ a service that we keep pumping more and more more into like a black hole not to perform ! |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"Our eldest daughter works in the NHS so this time isn’t a criticism of them, but it’s obvious that despite 80% of the population being jabbed that this thing isn’t going away.
If we keep having lockdowns because the NHS can’t cope then we should have been having them for the past 30 years then !
At some stage we have to live with this virus and start living our lives, my mum died during the bad flu year a couple of years ago when there was 50,000 excess flu deaths and it was claimed the NHS was falling over then !
It’s the 5th biggest employer in the world and absorbs 20% of the income tax we pay, the NHS does a good job on the whole but can we stop ‘lording’ a service that we keep pumping more and more more into like a black hole not to perform !"
agreed but dont forget, the tory government stripped alot of the funding for the nhs, sold contracts off to their mates. is it covid to blame or governments lack of responsibility and competency to keep the nhs in good shape? is it covid to blame or vaccine mandates causing a lot of the nueses and doctors to quit working because they dont want a jab forced on them? people need to look at other factors and see the whole puzzle. |
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"Our eldest daughter works in the NHS so this time isn’t a criticism of them, but it’s obvious that despite 80% of the population being jabbed that this thing isn’t going away.
If we keep having lockdowns because the NHS can’t cope then we should have been having them for the past 30 years then !
At some stage we have to live with this virus and start living our lives, my mum died during the bad flu year a couple of years ago when there was 50,000 excess flu deaths and it was claimed the NHS was falling over then !
It’s the 5th biggest employer in the world and absorbs 20% of the income tax we pay, the NHS does a good job on the whole but can we stop ‘lording’ a service that we keep pumping more and more more into like a black hole not to perform !"
The people clamouring for protection from Covid didn't care about people dying from flu because they didn't think they were at risk |
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"Our eldest daughter works in the NHS so this time isn’t a criticism of them, but it’s obvious that despite 80% of the population being jabbed that this thing isn’t going away.
If we keep having lockdowns because the NHS can’t cope then we should have been having them for the past 30 years then !
At some stage we have to live with this virus and start living our lives, my mum died during the bad flu year a couple of years ago when there was 50,000 excess flu deaths and it was claimed the NHS was falling over then !
It’s the 5th biggest employer in the world and absorbs 20% of the income tax we pay, the NHS does a good job on the whole but can we stop ‘lording’ a service that we keep pumping more and more more into like a black hole not to perform !
agreed but dont forget, the tory government stripped alot of the funding for the nhs, sold contracts off to their mates. is it covid to blame or governments lack of responsibility and competency to keep the nhs in good shape? is it covid to blame or vaccine mandates causing a lot of the nueses and doctors to quit working because they dont want a jab forced on them? people need to look at other factors and see the whole puzzle. "
But you can’t blame any political party for the incompetence of the NHS !
For example it’s well documented that last summer the NHS spent £400 million a month block booking private beds for non-Covid19 patents that 2/3rd’s were never used.
Of the new funding being subsidised by the increases in NI, £9 million is earmarked for executives that will champion ‘diversion, inclusion and equality’ on salaries up to £270K !
The biggest problem with the NHS is the amount of non-clinical and executive staff it employs and I’m afraid the correct balance is struck between clinical and non-clinical staff then you might as well dig a big hole and chuck your money down it !
Also, don’t forget it was the Labour Party when they were last in government that privatised the first hospital in Hitchingbrooke, that actually failed !
The NHS is such a great system that no other country in the world has copied its model and the financial failure of Hitchingbrooke Hospital is a classic example why !
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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I’m hoping not but I wonder if there will be restrictions introduced… the health Secretary seemed a bit shifty to me at times in the way he was trying to reassure it wasn’t gonna happen… |
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"Our eldest daughter works in the NHS so this time isn’t a criticism of them, but it’s obvious that despite 80% of the population being jabbed that this thing isn’t going away.
If we keep having lockdowns because the NHS can’t cope then we should have been having them for the past 30 years then !
At some stage we have to live with this virus and start living our lives, my mum died during the bad flu year a couple of years ago when there was 50,000 excess flu deaths and it was claimed the NHS was falling over then !
It’s the 5th biggest employer in the world and absorbs 20% of the income tax we pay, the NHS does a good job on the whole but can we stop ‘lording’ a service that we keep pumping more and more more into like a black hole not to perform !
agreed but dont forget, the tory government stripped alot of the funding for the nhs, sold contracts off to their mates. is it covid to blame or governments lack of responsibility and competency to keep the nhs in good shape? is it covid to blame or vaccine mandates causing a lot of the nueses and doctors to quit working because they dont want a jab forced on them? people need to look at other factors and see the whole puzzle.
But you can’t blame any political party for the incompetence of the NHS !
For example it’s well documented that last summer the NHS spent £400 million a month block booking private beds for non-Covid19 patents that 2/3rd’s were never used.
Of the new funding being subsidised by the increases in NI, £9 million is earmarked for executives that will champion ‘diversion, inclusion and equality’ on salaries up to £270K !
The biggest problem with the NHS is the amount of non-clinical and executive staff it employs and I’m afraid the correct balance is struck between clinical and non-clinical staff then you might as well dig a big hole and chuck your money down it !
Also, don’t forget it was the Labour Party when they were last in government that privatised the first hospital in Hitchingbrooke, that actually failed !
The NHS is such a great system that no other country in the world has copied its model and the financial failure of Hitchingbrooke Hospital is a classic example why !
"
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There is no perfect system though.
Having visited the USA many times health care is great there if you have money.
If you don't you are screwed.
If you have a salary of say £30k you would pay roughly £5,936 in tax.
So that is £1200 spent from your tax on health care..
The average annual cost of health insurance in the USA is $7,470 for an individual and $21,342 for a family as of July 2020
So if we moved to an American model then most people could not afford health insurance for their family and it would make a huge dent in living standards to even afford it as an individual. |
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As for the OPs question I would hope not.
Looking at the figures the death rate seems to have stabilised over the last few weeks.
Without a big advance in the next vaccine update it is likely that this is as good as it gets.
I would be in favour of a lockdown if it was for health reasons, but this feels more like a capacity issue.
If that is the case then reopen the nightingale centres and increase bed capacity.
It is not that simple as yes we need nurses and doctors to monitor those beds, but I don't see locking down a nation as a viable solution to reduce bed occupancy either...
I doubt it would happen as the mood music is more towards a continuing lifting of restrictions and not imposing new ones.
Would not make sense to not bring in a pass for night clubs but then shut those night clubs a month later. |
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I suspect a wider appetite for playing by the rules may be diminished after life has come back to almost normal. Especially after last Christmas 