FabSwingers.com > Forums > Virus > This time last year...
This time last year...
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"Something to have a think about... Compare the main numbers today with those of this time last year. We can see they are all ridiculously higher today... I mean humongously higher today. And yet we've delivered 130m vaccines... Got track and trace... Better treatments....makes you think... Well it made me think. Infections today 37314 Infections last year 1241 Hospitalisations today 858 Hoslitalisations last year 80 Deaths today 114 Deaths last year 8 wonder how much progress we've made. " dont forget alot of people have only just had the second jab, these things take time to work, and can you share where you got your information, but only if its a medical journal or something, otherwise im not believing it sorry | |||
"Something to have a think about... Compare the main numbers today with those of this time last year. We can see they are all ridiculously higher today... I mean humongously higher today. And yet we've delivered 130m vaccines... Got track and trace... Better treatments....makes you think... Well it made me think. Infections today 37314 Infections last year 1241 Hospitalisations today 858 Hoslitalisations last year 80 Deaths today 114 Deaths last year 8 wonder how much progress we've made. " That’s shocking | |||
"Something to have a think about... Compare the main numbers today with those of this time last year. We can see they are all ridiculously higher today... I mean humongously higher today. And yet we've delivered 130m vaccines... Got track and trace... Better treatments....makes you think... Well it made me think. Infections today 37314 Infections last year 1241 Hospitalisations today 858 Hoslitalisations last year 80 Deaths today 114 Deaths last year 8 wonder how much progress we've made. dont forget alot of people have only just had the second jab, these things take time to work, and can you share where you got your information, but only if its a medical journal or something, otherwise im not believing it sorry" The source of the data is the govt covid dashboard... https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ | |||
"How are Sweden doing… or are we not allowed to talk about them? " No idea how Sweden are faring or any other country. What struck me was just how the messages have changed in the course of the last year. 12 months ago... Messages were telling us It was all awful, 130m vaccine doses and 12 months later... The messages are generally... That we are defeating the blasted thing... And yet the official numbers today are so so much worse / higher than 12 months ago. Perception is reality... | |||
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"ok i will buy that, what about my first point, there are still millions who havnt been vaccinated yet, and spreading anti vax rumours without properly looking into the facts is not good for others, i was not sure to begin with about having the vaccine, did you know its basicly the same vaccine weve been taking for decades for other illness, with very few side effects, and had helped all but eradicate alot of virul infections glowbaly, do some reserch please" What would you like me to reasearch? I'm not anti vax at all. Nor am I spreading anti vax anything. Just comparing official govt statistics from today with a year ago.alongside the general tenor of the media messages. The point I'm trying to make is not vax nor anti vax. But the way the media messages have changed to be much more positive from where they were 12 months ago... And yet according to the official stats... We are in a much worse place. | |||
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"The link between hospitalisations and deaths has been weakened among the vaccinated, which is positive. I don't think letting it rip is a good idea for anyone, particularly the unvaccinated. It's also not clear whether vaccination protects against long Covid. The real test will be schools returning." I'm really not convinced... I was.. But I'm questioning... I mean we have 10 times as many hospitalisations and deaths today, than we had 12 months ago. Its a reasonable question to ask how that shows progressnhas been made. | |||
"ok i will buy that, what about my first point, there are still millions who havnt been vaccinated yet, and spreading anti vax rumours without properly looking into the facts is not good for others, i was not sure to begin with about having the vaccine, did you know its basicly the same vaccine weve been taking for decades for other illness, with very few side effects, and had helped all but eradicate alot of virul infections glowbaly, do some reserch please What would you like me to reasearch? I'm not anti vax at all. Nor am I spreading anti vax anything. Just comparing official govt statistics from today with a year ago.alongside the general tenor of the media messages. The point I'm trying to make is not vax nor anti vax. But the way the media messages have changed to be much more positive from where they were 12 months ago... And yet according to the official stats... We are in a much worse place. " all the information is out there, like i said i wasnt sure untill i reserched it, its not hard, and if i can anyone can | |||
"The link between hospitalisations and deaths has been weakened among the vaccinated, which is positive. I don't think letting it rip is a good idea for anyone, particularly the unvaccinated. It's also not clear whether vaccination protects against long Covid. The real test will be schools returning. I'm really not convinced... I was.. But I'm questioning... I mean we have 10 times as many hospitalisations and deaths today, than we had 12 months ago. Its a reasonable question to ask how that shows progressnhas been made. " Sure. If you can find figures of hospitalisation and death from before vaccinations, have a look at the relationship between cases, hospitalisations and deaths - that'll show what I mean. It's not perfect but it helps. There were numbers bandied about here recently which suggested that unvaccinated people were something like 11x more likely to be hospitalised. We also know that the oldest groups, most at risk, are overwhelmingly vaccinated. That suggests the protective effect of the vaccine (it's not perfect, but nothing is). | |||
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"The link between hospitalisations and deaths has been weakened among the vaccinated, which is positive. I don't think letting it rip is a good idea for anyone, particularly the unvaccinated. It's also not clear whether vaccination protects against long Covid. The real test will be schools returning. I'm really not convinced... I was.. But I'm questioning... I mean we have 10 times as many hospitalisations and deaths today, than we had 12 months ago. Its a reasonable question to ask how that shows progressnhas been made. Sure. If you can find figures of hospitalisation and death from before vaccinations, have a look at the relationship between cases, hospitalisations and deaths - that'll show what I mean. It's not perfect but it helps. There were numbers bandied about here recently which suggested that unvaccinated people were something like 11x more likely to be hospitalised. We also know that the oldest groups, most at risk, are overwhelmingly vaccinated. That suggests the protective effect of the vaccine (it's not perfect, but nothing is)." reminds me of the joke about the skydiver whos parashoot didnt open, yes he died of covid | |||
"The link between hospitalisations and deaths has been weakened among the vaccinated, which is positive. I don't think letting it rip is a good idea for anyone, particularly the unvaccinated. It's also not clear whether vaccination protects against long Covid. The real test will be schools returning. I'm really not convinced... I was.. But I'm questioning... I mean we have 10 times as many hospitalisations and deaths today, than we had 12 months ago. Its a reasonable question to ask how that shows progressnhas been made. " Work out the number of hospitalisations as a percentage of the infections now, and then compare it with the same calculation for last year - this will highlight the progress made. | |||
"The link between hospitalisations and deaths has been weakened among the vaccinated, which is positive. I don't think letting it rip is a good idea for anyone, particularly the unvaccinated. It's also not clear whether vaccination protects against long Covid. The real test will be schools returning. I'm really not convinced... I was.. But I'm questioning... I mean we have 10 times as many hospitalisations and deaths today, than we had 12 months ago. Its a reasonable question to ask how that shows progressnhas been made. Work out the number of hospitalisations as a percentage of the infections now, and then compare it with the same calculation for last year - this will highlight the progress made. " It's hard to make that comparison in testing though isn't it? Because it would be comparing apples and pears. Because now we have lft tests and testing more asymptomatic people. We weren't doing the same testing 12 months ago which were pretty much exclusively pcr tests for people who had symptoms (because you couldn't get a pcr without symptoms). So if there is data out there that shows symptomatic pcr test for today and for 12 months ago... I will have a root around tomorrow to see if I can find. Its sleepy time now. | |||
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"Something to have a think about... Compare the main numbers today with those of this time last year. We can see they are all ridiculously higher today... I mean humongously higher today. And yet we've delivered 130m vaccines... Got track and trace... Better treatments....makes you think... Well it made me think. Infections today 37314 Infections last year 1241 Hospitalisations today 858 Hoslitalisations last year 80 Deaths today 114 Deaths last year 8 wonder how much progress we've made. " Delta is the missing factor which whilst respecting the difficulty in doing so tends to make such comparisons pointless.. Each new variant is like ground hog day and this will be how we live with what's here and what's yet to come as the virus mutates.. | |||
"How are Sweden doing… or are we not allowed to talk about them? " nothing to see in Sweden; so move along please ! | |||
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"The vaccine does seem to be working. I work in a care home... last year if a resident got covid we were pretty sure we would lose them. This time around they are both annoyed at being locked in their rooms in isolation as basically fine. In fact the 2 staff members that have it are more poorly. But still not much more than if they had flu" I m not making any comment on the efficacy of any vaccines. That's been done many times over. But I was very surprised to see the comparisons to 12 months ago. I can well remember the general messages being... Be afraid.. Stay away from everyone.. Don't visit anyone.. Work from home if at all... Only shop in ones... And so on. Restaurants closed bars closed etc... Roll the clock forward 12 months where the three key measures that have been used by govt and media to derive policy and influence our behaviours... All 3 measures are significantly higher... And yet we are feeling less afraid, messages are... Go out and support the economy.. See your friends.. Jump on a flight... It's the disparity between the considerably higher infections / admissions /deaths numbers this year and the way our behaviours are being influenced and managed I found so interesting. | |||
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"The messaging is strange to me. Very strange." Like its being made up on the hoof? Or is it more sinister | |||
"The messaging is strange to me. Very strange. Like its being made up on the hoof? Or is it more sinister " I think the politics is being prioritised over the science and it'll come to bite us. The media are doing what they think will serve their interests as businesses. I'm ignoring them. | |||
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"And yet we are feeling less afraid, messages are... Go out and support the economy.. See your friends.. Jump on a flight…" This reminded me a facebook post made by a poor 63 year old guy (prominent South Carolina Republican politician). In his July 5 post, he was simply commenting “Yepper!” on a speech bubble he was sharing. The phrase inside the speech bubble was “Delta variant is just code for too many y’all aren’t scared anymore” Not long later this poor guy who was sharing images with sheep wearing masks, contacted covid. He spent 20 days in intensive care (the last seven on a ventilator. Covid caused him pneumonia, kidney failure and blood clots. He passed away yesterday. His wife who was also suffering from Parkinson’s got hospitalised with covid symptoms for a few days but luckily she survived. | |||
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"Things weren’t fully open this time last year, nor was the more transmissible Delta prevalent (or even in existence, if I recall correctly). " It was about this time last year that Manchester was put under the first regional restrictions. My local area is actually doing better at the moment than last August. | |||
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"Things weren’t fully open this time last year, nor was the more transmissible Delta prevalent (or even in existence, if I recall correctly). " Of course many things were different... We weren't doing lfts and we were only testing symptomatic PCRs 12 months ago... But numbers are numbers... They don't care if its one variant or another...the Facts that have been used throughout are infections / hospitalisations / deaths and they are all much much higher now. Yet it is OK now... Don't worry... Crack on is a very different message. | |||
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"One thing to note from this time to last year was, we spent majority of spring in lockdown last year and as a result infections fell a lot, after the summer months of little restrictions and eat out to help out we saw a huge spike in numbers, death and infections. Hopefully this time we won't see that big spike and the virus will continue to do its work but at a much lower rate. The time has come to get on with life now and live along side this virus. We have or the majority have put their faith in the government and science, so hopefully it will all pay off. " Perhaps.. I think there are a million different views of what "living alongside this virus" actually means to individuals lives and behaviours. How much, if at all they are willing to be mindful of their own and others well being. As for people putting faith in govt and science... That takes us full circle and back to my op... That the trust in govt and science has all three key metrics deaths / infections/admissions over 10 times higher than they were 12 months ago and on an upward trajectory. As general melchett said... "If nothing else works, a total pig-headed unwillingness to look facts in the face will see us through." | |||
It's not a good point at these levels, during summer. The Euros added 9,000 infections, which will have been passed on to others, who could otherwise have remained healthy.
The Delta variant is our problem this year, compared to last summer, because the Johnson decided to keep travel open from India. That's why we are so deeply in the shite now. The vaccines and restrictions have been overridden by policy and choice. And some would vote the same again.
The vaccines are doing an incredible job, despite the policies and selfish behaviour out there. We're getting vastly reduced hospitalisations and deaths. It would be much worse carnage otherwise.
Natural herd immunity last year was the plan, at the height of the first wave . This should tell you all that you need to know about the levels of protection and care that you are given by those we entrusted with power to keep us safe. And now in England, mask wearing choice is devolved to the ignorant. | |||
"How are Sweden doing… or are we not allowed to talk about them? " False equivalence that as always, makes your contribution to the conversation pointless. Whataboutisum is a method of debate used by children getting told off. Pointing out a country doing worse than us doesn't change the fact that our government responses are less than adequate. If you think, as so many of you do, that Britain truly is the Great country it has spent my entire life failing to prove it to be, then anything less than exceptional is failure. We speak of our superiority and yet accept mediocrity at every level. But sure, what about them over there is better than asking why have we let 130000 people die. | |||
"How are Sweden doing… or are we not allowed to talk about them? False equivalence that as always, makes your contribution to the conversation pointless. Whataboutisum is a method of debate used by children getting told off. Pointing out a country doing worse than us doesn't change the fact that our government responses are less than adequate. If you think, as so many of you do, that Britain truly is the Great country it has spent my entire life failing to prove it to be, then anything less than exceptional is failure. We speak of our superiority and yet accept mediocrity at every level. But sure, what about them over there is better than asking why have we let 130000 people die." Oh dear, how spectacularly you missed the point. For the record I mentioned Sweden because this time last year the ‘experts’ were busy telling us how everyone in Sweden would die due to their reckless approach and that their way couldn’t possibly be applied here. As it is businesses didn’t close, children went to school, the vulnerable stayed home and they’re averaging less than 1 death a day over the past month. I might also suggest that you take a look at their excess death rates too…and that’s why we don’t mention Sweden | |||
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"The vaccine does seem to be working. I work in a care home... last year if a resident got covid we were pretty sure we would lose them. This time around they are both annoyed at being locked in their rooms in isolation as basically fine. In fact the 2 staff members that have it are more poorly. But still not much more than if they had flu I m not making any comment on the efficacy of any vaccines. That's been done many times over. But I was very surprised to see the comparisons to 12 months ago. I can well remember the general messages being... Be afraid.. Stay away from everyone.. Don't visit anyone.. Work from home if at all... Only shop in ones... And so on. Restaurants closed bars closed etc... Roll the clock forward 12 months where the three key measures that have been used by govt and media to derive policy and influence our behaviours... All 3 measures are significantly higher... And yet we are feeling less afraid, messages are... Go out and support the economy.. See your friends.. Jump on a flight... It's the disparity between the considerably higher infections / admissions /deaths numbers this year and the way our behaviours are being influenced and managed I found so interesting. " Herd | |||
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"PS, my GP is still barricaded in, they don't seem to have got the memo of it being safe to open up" Same as mine. I can't fathom why access to gp services has become like searching for the holy grail. It used to be so simple.. Call.. Make an appt... See Dr... Next please....I've just turned into my dad. | |||
"PS, my GP is still barricaded in, they don't seem to have got the memo of it being safe to open up Same as mine. I can't fathom why access to gp services has become like searching for the holy grail. It used to be so simple.. Call.. Make an appt... See Dr... Next please....I've just turned into my dad. " Our GP is same the receptionist's are like Hannibal lector hiding behind 4ft of Perspex. | |||
"PS, my GP is still barricaded in, they don't seem to have got the memo of it being safe to open up Same as mine. I can't fathom why access to gp services has become like searching for the holy grail. It used to be so simple.. Call.. Make an appt... See Dr... Next please....I've just turned into my dad. Our GP is same the receptionist's are like Hannibal lector hiding behind 4ft of Perspex." I don't even know if they have a screen, you can't get into the surgery for love nor money  | |||
"PS, my GP is still barricaded in, they don't seem to have got the memo of it being safe to open up Same as mine. I can't fathom why access to gp services has become like searching for the holy grail. It used to be so simple.. Call.. Make an appt... See Dr... Next please....I've just turned into my dad. " Haha It is true though, although I don't use the GP's much but for people who do they have no chance of seeing anyone face to face. My yearly check was done by a phone call from a pharmacist. I was sitting wondering how the blood pressure check was going to work, but it was OK, he just said take your own  | |||
"PS, my GP is still barricaded in, they don't seem to have got the memo of it being safe to open up Same as mine. I can't fathom why access to gp services has become like searching for the holy grail. It used to be so simple.. Call.. Make an appt... See Dr... Next please....I've just turned into my dad. Haha It is true though, although I don't use the GP's much but for people who do they have no chance of seeing anyone face to face. My yearly check was done by a phone call from a pharmacist. I was sitting wondering how the blood pressure check was going to work, but it was OK, he just said take your own "I'm over a year overdue for some blood tests. They normally chase me if I'm more than two weeks overdue  | |||
"PS, my GP is still barricaded in, they don't seem to have got the memo of it being safe to open up Same as mine. I can't fathom why access to gp services has become like searching for the holy grail. It used to be so simple.. Call.. Make an appt... See Dr... Next please....I've just turned into my dad. Haha It is true though, although I don't use the GP's much but for people who do they have no chance of seeing anyone face to face. My yearly check was done by a phone call from a pharmacist. I was sitting wondering how the blood pressure check was going to work, but it was OK, he just said take your own "You sure we don't have the same gp? Mine said the same. I asked if it mattered what equipment I measured my blood pressure with.... He said... No anything that works... Just write it down for a week and email them to me. | |||
"PS, my GP is still barricaded in, they don't seem to have got the memo of it being safe to open up Same as mine. I can't fathom why access to gp services has become like searching for the holy grail. It used to be so simple.. Call.. Make an appt... See Dr... Next please....I've just turned into my dad. Haha It is true though, although I don't use the GP's much but for people who do they have no chance of seeing anyone face to face. My yearly check was done by a phone call from a pharmacist. I was sitting wondering how the blood pressure check was going to work, but it was OK, he just said take your own
You sure we don't have the same gp? Mine said the same. I asked if it mattered what equipment I measured my blood pressure with.... He said... No anything that works... Just write it down for a week and email them to me. "Apologies... I digress | |||
"PS, my GP is still barricaded in, they don't seem to have got the memo of it being safe to open up Same as mine. I can't fathom why access to gp services has become like searching for the holy grail. It used to be so simple.. Call.. Make an appt... See Dr... Next please....I've just turned into my dad. Haha It is true though, although I don't use the GP's much but for people who do they have no chance of seeing anyone face to face. My yearly check was done by a phone call from a pharmacist. I was sitting wondering how the blood pressure check was going to work, but it was OK, he just said take your own
I'm over a year overdue for some blood tests. They normally chase me if I'm more than two weeks overdue "You might be in for a longer wait there is a shortage of bottles for blood tests | |||
"How are Sweden doing… or are we not allowed to talk about them? " If you want to talk about Sweden, it makes more sense to compare them with Norway, Denmark or Finland. | |||
"PS, my GP is still barricaded in, they don't seem to have got the memo of it being safe to open up Same as mine. I can't fathom why access to gp services has become like searching for the holy grail. It used to be so simple.. Call.. Make an appt... See Dr... Next please....I've just turned into my dad. Haha It is true though, although I don't use the GP's much but for people who do they have no chance of seeing anyone face to face. My yearly check was done by a phone call from a pharmacist. I was sitting wondering how the blood pressure check was going to work, but it was OK, he just said take your own
I'm over a year overdue for some blood tests. They normally chase me if I'm more than two weeks overdue
You might be in for a longer wait there is a shortage of bottles for blood tests"I didn't know that. I'm fine. I know my condition pretty well. | |||
"The difference is that we are currently in the grip of the third wave, being driven by the delta variant. This time last year we were in the gap between first and second waves. The waves are not particularly driven by the season of the year. If you look at the worldometer graph since the whole thing started, then check your memory of the preventative measures that were being taken, it is completely obvious that the numbers go down when masking, social distancing, and restrictions on movement were in place, and go up again as soon as those restrictions are removed. It's as simple as that. Some of us said that the government would balls everything up when they removed restrictions in July, while the numbers were already going up. There was a glitch in the numbers then for a few weeks that looked like there had been a miraculous reduction exactly on freedom day, but I said at the time "how the fuck can removing all the regulations cause the infection rate to drop?". Obviously now it was mainly caused by many people throwing away their lft kits and dumping the covid app from their phones; the infections didn't reduce, it's just that the numbers went into hiding. The vaccines are helping, without them the infection rate would be sky high now. But herd immunity has not been reached by either vaccine or by prior infection, people are still getting ill (but most of the vaccinated not as ill as they would have been), people are still dying (but mostly the unvaccinated or the ones with extreme vulnerabilities). The huge problem is that because the government as good as told everyone that covid is over and precautions are no longer necessary, far too many people are just allowing the spread to continue unabated. Those of us who still see it as being serious are continually told that we are frightened and hiding under the bed! Covid is nowhere near over. The numbers will inevitably keep rising until either we have at least 90% vaccination across the whole population - which is impossible without jabbing kids as well - or we go back to mask mandates and distancing regulations and travel limitations. Which nobody wants. The only other way it ends is when pretty well every single person in the country has caught it; even then it'll probably carry on with new variants coming up. We will get some people who survived their first dose of covid but have been weakened by it, who will get worse second time around and die the third time. Deaths will continue, until every person that is going to die has gone. Could be that we just have to get used to nobody living past 50. (So that's at least half of us on here gone). Or we develop better vaccines, that more people take. We get used to some permanent changes in social behaviour. Covid is going nowhere soon, so we have to either learn to live with it - which means at least some changes to our behaviour - or learn to die with it."  | |||
"Something to have a think about... Compare the main numbers today with those of this time last year. We can see they are all ridiculously higher today... I mean humongously higher today. And yet we've delivered 130m vaccines... Got track and trace... Better treatments....makes you think... Well it made me think. Infections today 37314 Infections last year 1241 Hospitalisations today 858 Hoslitalisations last year 80 Deaths today 114 Deaths last year 8 wonder how much progress we've made. " Yes the figures don't look good, however, without the vaccine the current figures on hospitalisation and deaths would have been much higher. | |||
"Something to have a think about... Compare the main numbers today with those of this time last year. We can see they are all ridiculously higher today... I mean humongously higher today. And yet we've delivered 130m vaccines... Got track and trace... Better treatments....makes you think... Well it made me think. Infections today 37314 Infections last year 1241 Hospitalisations today 858 Hoslitalisations last year 80 Deaths today 114 Deaths last year 8 wonder how much progress we've made. " Yes its very easy to compare figures from a year ago but shows nothing in reality. As infections are coming in waves due to new variants its very easy to quote figures from a year ago when that wave was ending, try posting the same figures from when in was in the same place as the current one and see how hospitalizations pan out. | |||
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"I think the point being made is...if we were told to have mitigations when we had low cases, why are the mitigations not being asked for when we have more cases or indeed a wave" Because of the vaccine roll out success. | |||
"Something to have a think about... Compare the main numbers today with those of this time last year. We can see they are all ridiculously higher today... I mean humongously higher today. And yet we've delivered 130m vaccines... Got track and trace... Better treatments....makes you think... Well it made me think. Infections today 37314 Infections last year 1241 Hospitalisations today 858 Hoslitalisations last year 80 Deaths today 114 Deaths last year 8 wonder how much progress we've made. Yes the figures don't look good, however, without the vaccine the current figures on hospitalisation and deaths would have been much higher." Missing my point really. Its not with or without vax. Just simply ... If the numbers are over 10 times as high as they were 12 months ago. And 12 months ago we were being told in no uncertain terms to be restricted in movement and contact and offices and schools and bars and.... Then why when the numbers are over 10 times higher (even if they have been suppressed by a vaccine) is the messaging now... Go and crack on? | |||
"Something to have a think about... Compare the main numbers today with those of this time last year. We can see they are all ridiculously higher today... I mean humongously higher today. And yet we've delivered 130m vaccines... Got track and trace... Better treatments....makes you think... Well it made me think. Infections today 37314 Infections last year 1241 Hospitalisations today 858 Hoslitalisations last year 80 Deaths today 114 Deaths last year 8 wonder how much progress we've made. Yes the figures don't look good, however, without the vaccine the current figures on hospitalisation and deaths would have been much higher. Missing my point really. Its not with or without vax. Just simply ... If the numbers are over 10 times as high as they were 12 months ago. And 12 months ago we were being told in no uncertain terms to be restricted in movement and contact and offices and schools and bars and.... Then why when the numbers are over 10 times higher (even if they have been suppressed by a vaccine) is the messaging now... Go and crack on? " If you're vaccinated, the effects are probably less severe. Is part of the reasoning. I don't think it's fair on those who can't be vaccinated or haven't been fully vaccinated yet. And I fear we underestimate long Covid. But it is what it is. | |||
"Something to have a think about... Compare the main numbers today with those of this time last year. We can see they are all ridiculously higher today... I mean humongously higher today. And yet we've delivered 130m vaccines... Got track and trace... Better treatments....makes you think... Well it made me think. Infections today 37314 Infections last year 1241 Hospitalisations today 858 Hoslitalisations last year 80 Deaths today 114 Deaths last year 8 wonder how much progress we've made. Yes its very easy to compare figures from a year ago but shows nothing in reality. As infections are coming in waves due to new variants its very easy to quote figures from a year ago when that wave was ending, try posting the same figures from when in was in the same place as the current one and see how hospitalizations pan out." Not sure i understand your point... Last August was a year ago and just about kicking off the autumn wave. We don't have an autumn wave yet as it's not autumn yet. No idea where we are in any wave now and I'm not sure any scientist is saying so either. ...we are certainly trending upwards as we head into autumn and winter, where numbers are not going to get smaller as we move indoors. I find it interesting that there's barely a mention of numbers now in the news. Which on the one hand is actually a quite nice change.. But on the other is conspicuous by their absence. | |||
"Something to have a think about... Compare the main numbers today with those of this time last year. We can see they are all ridiculously higher today... I mean humongously higher today. And yet we've delivered 130m vaccines... Got track and trace... Better treatments....makes you think... Well it made me think. Infections today 37314 Infections last year 1241 Hospitalisations today 858 Hoslitalisations last year 80 Deaths today 114 Deaths last year 8 wonder how much progress we've made. Yes its very easy to compare figures from a year ago but shows nothing in reality. As infections are coming in waves due to new variants its very easy to quote figures from a year ago when that wave was ending, try posting the same figures from when in was in the same place as the current one and see how hospitalizations pan out. Not sure i understand your point... Last August was a year ago and just about kicking off the autumn wave. We don't have an autumn wave yet as it's not autumn yet. No idea where we are in any wave now and I'm not sure any scientist is saying so either. ...we are certainly trending upwards as we head into autumn and winter, where numbers are not going to get smaller as we move indoors. I find it interesting that there's barely a mention of numbers now in the news. Which on the one hand is actually a quite nice change.. But on the other is conspicuous by their absence. " I think the point here is supposed to be, we can't compare August 2020 to August 2021, because we weren't in a wave then. Ok. But why are we in a wave? Did the magic wave fairies dump a wave on it? Or did the government remove restrictions and ignore rising cases? Did people listen to the government and start failing to give a shit? | |||
"I think the point being made is...if we were told to have mitigations when we had low cases, why are the mitigations not being asked for when we have more cases or indeed a waveBecause of the vaccine roll out success. Which brings us back to the OP" Which brings us back to the OP of how much progress have we indeed made | |||
"Something to have a think about... Compare the main numbers today with those of this time last year. We can see they are all ridiculously higher today... I mean humongously higher today. And yet we've delivered 130m vaccines... Got track and trace... Better treatments....makes you think... Well it made me think. Infections today 37314 Infections last year 1241 Hospitalisations today 858 Hoslitalisations last year 80 Deaths today 114 Deaths last year 8 wonder how much progress we've made. Yes the figures don't look good, however, without the vaccine the current figures on hospitalisation and deaths would have been much higher. Missing my point really. Its not with or without vax. Just simply ... If the numbers are over 10 times as high as they were 12 months ago. And 12 months ago we were being told in no uncertain terms to be restricted in movement and contact and offices and schools and bars and.... Then why when the numbers are over 10 times higher (even if they have been suppressed by a vaccine) is the messaging now... Go and crack on? " I understand your point, which is why I started by saying 'the figures don't look good.' The reason I mentioned the vaccine, is because the government is relying on the vaccine to get us out of the pandemic. So if the vaccine has proven to reduce hospitalisations and deaths, then that's the reason and rational for them telling us to 'Go and crack on'. BTW I'm not suggesting that I follow the 'Go and crack on'. I am double jabbed, but I'm still taking similar precautions as I did last summer. | |||
"Something to have a think about... Compare the main numbers today with those of this time last year. We can see they are all ridiculously higher today... I mean humongously higher today. And yet we've delivered 130m vaccines... Got track and trace... Better treatments....makes you think... Well it made me think. Infections today 37314 Infections last year 1241 Hospitalisations today 858 Hoslitalisations last year 80 Deaths today 114 Deaths last year 8 wonder how much progress we've made. " The virus is making progress as well, it's evolutionary biology, in fact if anything you could make an argument in all of our intervention speeding it's evolution up, all life when pushed will cling on to the very end and cause it to find every single crack in our natural defences. It's just a matter of time before it circumvents this vaccine and a new one will be needed or it will be evolutionarily forced to infect younger and younger people who clearly had innate immunity last year as it's new susceptible hosts. Every intervention causes evolution and every new variant causes the complete extinction of the old variant. As they say, that's life! | |||
"Something to have a think about... Compare the main numbers today with those of this time last year. We can see they are all ridiculously higher today... I mean humongously higher today. And yet we've delivered 130m vaccines... Got track and trace... Better treatments....makes you think... Well it made me think. Infections today 37314 Infections last year 1241 Hospitalisations today 858 Hoslitalisations last year 80 Deaths today 114 Deaths last year 8 wonder how much progress we've made. Yes the figures don't look good, however, without the vaccine the current figures on hospitalisation and deaths would have been much higher. Missing my point really. Its not with or without vax. Just simply ... If the numbers are over 10 times as high as they were 12 months ago. And 12 months ago we were being told in no uncertain terms to be restricted in movement and contact and offices and schools and bars and.... Then why when the numbers are over 10 times higher (even if they have been suppressed by a vaccine) is the messaging now... Go and crack on? " These are Scottish figures (I know where to find them) but I am sure they reflect across the UK: Test Conducted now (7 day avg) - 29,080 Test Conducted 21/08/21 (7 day avg) - 14,388 So, twice the amount of testing going on. Delta variant is much more transmissible. The r0 for Alpha was about 3. Delta is about 7. This shows how much quicker the delta variant spreads vs alpha 1 3 9 27 81 243 1 7 49 147 441 3087 After just 6 cycles: Alpha 324 cases Delta 3732 cases Over 10x more cases. With regards to you stats on cases and hospitalisations, 30x more cases today than hospitalisations. Last year, 8x more cases than hospitalisations. If we look back to January peak when there was 60k cases there were about 900 deaths (1 in 66) . Now, with 30k cases, there are just 114 deaths (1 in 263). One of the reason why deaths and hospitalisations were relatively low last summer is that those most vulneralbe were still in lockdowns. No nursing home visits and the elderly generally stayed in their homes. Now, with the vaccine, they are less as risk but are much more exposed as restrictions are lifted. | |||
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"There a hell of W lot more testing now compared to this time last year so no surprises there really " How do the positivity rates and hospitalisations compare? Hospitalisations for Covid are never going to be an artefact of testing | |||
"There a hell of W lot more testing now compared to this time last year so no surprises there really How do the positivity rates and hospitalisations compare? Hospitalisations for Covid are never going to be an artefact of testing" And how many actually dying compared to this time last year ? | |||
"There a hell of W lot more testing now compared to this time last year so no surprises there really " Testing is very different now. 12 months ago we only tested symptomatic people and did 181k pcr tests. 12 months on 380k pcr tests. | |||
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"There a hell of W lot more testing now compared to this time last year so no surprises there really How do the positivity rates and hospitalisations compare? Hospitalisations for Covid are never going to be an artefact of testing And how many actually dying compared to this time last year ?" Well that's really easy as it's the purpose of the op. Yesterday deaths 104. 13 months ago...it was 8. So over 10 times as many. Or Compare those who need ventilation beds... Yesterday 928 A year ago.. 70 | |||
"There a hell of W lot more testing now compared to this time last year so no surprises there really How do the positivity rates and hospitalisations compare? Hospitalisations for Covid are never going to be an artefact of testing And how many actually dying compared to this time last year ?" More people | |||
"There a hell of W lot more testing now compared to this time last year so no surprises there really How do the positivity rates and hospitalisations compare? Hospitalisations for Covid are never going to be an artefact of testing And how many actually dying compared to this time last year ? Well that's really easy as it's the purpose of the op. Yesterday deaths 104. 13 months ago...it was 8. So over 10 times as many. Or Compare those who need ventilation beds... Yesterday 928 A year ago.. 70 " *12 months ago that should say | |||
"There a hell of W lot more testing now compared to this time last year so no surprises there really How do the positivity rates and hospitalisations compare? Hospitalisations for Covid are never going to be an artefact of testing And how many actually dying compared to this time last year ? Well that's really easy as it's the purpose of the op. Yesterday deaths 104. 13 months ago...it was 8. So over 10 times as many. Or Compare those who need ventilation beds... Yesterday 928 A year ago.. 70 " What would also be interesting would be to take the comparable point in time for waves 1, 2 and 3 and see how the stats compare. I guess the problem with that is defining a date for the start of each wave? | |||
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"98% of hospitalisations/deaths are non-vaccinated people so what does that tell you? " That's not accurate. 60 percent of hospitalisations are unvaccinated as per Patrick vallance... https://news.sky.com/story/amp/covid-19-vallance-corrects-mistake-to-say-60-of-people-being-admitted-to-hospital-with-coronavirus-are-unvaccinated-12359317 https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/coronavirus-news-covid-vaccine-jab-delta-variant-cases-test/ 2 thirds of under 50s who died with delta variant were unvaccinated. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/coronavirus-news-covid-vaccine-uk-cases-deaths-delta-variant/ | |||
"98% of hospitalisations/deaths are non-vaccinated people so what does that tell you? That's not accurate. 60 percent of hospitalisations are unvaccinated as per Patrick vallance... https://news.sky.com/story/amp/covid-19-vallance-corrects-mistake-to-say-60-of-people-being-admitted-to-hospital-with-coronavirus-are-unvaccinated-12359317 https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/coronavirus-news-covid-vaccine-jab-delta-variant-cases-test/ 2 thirds of under 50s who died with delta variant were unvaccinated. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/coronavirus-news-covid-vaccine-uk-cases-deaths-delta-variant/ " I've seen that kind of figure being quoted for the US. I haven't verified it. Severe disease is disproportionately hitting the unvaccinated, certainly. | |||
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"There a hell of W lot more testing now compared to this time last year so no surprises there really How do the positivity rates and hospitalisations compare? Hospitalisations for Covid are never going to be an artefact of testing And how many actually dying compared to this time last year ? Well that's really easy as it's the purpose of the op. Yesterday deaths 104. 13 months ago...it was 8. So over 10 times as many. Or Compare those who need ventilation beds... Yesterday 928 A year ago.. 70 What would also be interesting would be to take the comparable point in time for waves 1, 2 and 3 and see how the stats compare. I guess the problem with that is defining a date for the start of each wave?" A wave being measured by the increase, peak and decrease in the number of infections ? | |||
"There a hell of W lot more testing now compared to this time last year so no surprises there really How do the positivity rates and hospitalisations compare? Hospitalisations for Covid are never going to be an artefact of testing And how many actually dying compared to this time last year ? Well that's really easy as it's the purpose of the op. Yesterday deaths 104. 13 months ago...it was 8. So over 10 times as many. Or Compare those who need ventilation beds... Yesterday 928 A year ago.. 70 What would also be interesting would be to take the comparable point in time for waves 1, 2 and 3 and see how the stats compare. I guess the problem with that is defining a date for the start of each wave?" It would be interesting. And a job for a proper scientist as opposed to a keyboard warrior like me. I mean each wave had so many differences that finding consistent data points across the 3 or even 2 is impossible. What we can compare are the numbers that have been consistent and important all the way through and the policy decisions that have been taken off the back of them and what has subsequently happened to those numbers. | |||
"Ffs Take a day aff ?? " That isn't very pleasant. Maybe just skim past peoples posts that you don't like instead | |||
"Ffs Take a day aff ?? That isn't very pleasant. Maybe just skim past peoples posts that you don't like instead" When and why did you change your username ? | |||
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"Ffs Take a day aff ?? That isn't very pleasant. Maybe just skim past peoples posts that you don't like instead" Might just be sick of yet another vaccine denier clogging up these forums. | |||
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"Ffs Take a day aff ?? That isn't very pleasant. Maybe just skim past peoples posts that you don't like instead When and why did you change your username ?" Errmm is the answer because we wanted to? | |||
"Ffs Take a day aff ?? That isn't very pleasant. Maybe just skim past peoples posts that you don't like instead Might just be sick of yet another vaccine denier clogging up these forums." Maybe just skim past peoples posts that you don't like instead | |||
"Ffs Take a day aff ?? That isn't very pleasant. Maybe just skim past peoples posts that you don't like instead When and why did you change your username ? Errmm is the answer because we wanted to? " | |||
"The link between hospitalisations and deaths has been weakened among the vaccinated, which is positive. I don't think letting it rip is a good idea for anyone, particularly the unvaccinated. It's also not clear whether vaccination protects against long Covid. The real test will be schools returning. I'm really not convinced... I was.. But I'm questioning... I mean we have 10 times as many hospitalisations and deaths today, than we had 12 months ago. Its a reasonable question to ask how that shows progressnhas been made. Work out the number of hospitalisations as a percentage of the infections now, and then compare it with the same calculation for last year - this will highlight the progress made. It's hard to make that comparison in testing though isn't it? Because it would be comparing apples and pears. Because now we have lft tests and testing more asymptomatic people. We weren't doing the same testing 12 months ago which were pretty much exclusively pcr tests for people who had symptoms (because you couldn't get a pcr without symptoms). So if there is data out there that shows symptomatic pcr test for today and for 12 months ago... I will have a root around tomorrow to see if I can find. Its sleepy time now. " Good point. Comparing infection and hospitalisation rates during wave 2( winter) vs wave 3 (summer) is also like comparing apples and oranges. We won't really know how effective these vaccines are until winter this year. Although we are bound to be onto another variant by then. | |||
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"The link between hospitalisations and deaths has been weakened among the vaccinated, which is positive. I don't think letting it rip is a good idea for anyone, particularly the unvaccinated. It's also not clear whether vaccination protects against long Covid. The real test will be schools returning. I'm really not convinced... I was.. But I'm questioning... I mean we have 10 times as many hospitalisations and deaths today, than we had 12 months ago. Its a reasonable question to ask how that shows progressnhas been made. Work out the number of hospitalisations as a percentage of the infections now, and then compare it with the same calculation for last year - this will highlight the progress made. It's hard to make that comparison in testing though isn't it? Because it would be comparing apples and pears. Because now we have lft tests and testing more asymptomatic people. We weren't doing the same testing 12 months ago which were pretty much exclusively pcr tests for people who had symptoms (because you couldn't get a pcr without symptoms). So if there is data out there that shows symptomatic pcr test for today and for 12 months ago... I will have a root around tomorrow to see if I can find. Its sleepy time now. " Look at similar day infections in past say 30k compare hospitalisation on that day and deaths. Not rocket science. We all need to get vaccinated. That sort biggest risk to health sack this goverment they are biggest risk to health. I don't care care if it's tories lab or lib. As long as this cabinet all cleared out. Boris is a Hugh rusk to us all and I voted for him I got it so wrong | |||
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"Huge " Presumably you meant “risk” not “rusk” 
Had visions of babies eating a massive Boris Rusk uuurrgghh! | |||
"Huge Presumably you meant “risk” not “rusk”
Had visions of babies eating a massive Boris Rusk uuurrgghh!"I can imagine Boris as a huge rusk eater. I bet he's into age play. | |||
