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A little perspective
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"Bolton, last 7 days
Infections - 963
Hospitalisation - 11
Deaths - 3
From Gov uk website
Not exactly cause for panic"
About one and half percentish .. But that's just this week.. Data next week or the week after could prove interesting |
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"Bolton, last 7 days
Infections - 963
Hospitalisation - 11
Deaths - 3
From Gov uk website
Not exactly cause for panic"
We'd had zero Covid deaths for weeks and weeks before this new hotspot sprang up. I'd say more infections and deaths are not something to be pleased about. Every time a virus is able to replicate itself, we risk new, favourable mutations cropping up. |
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By *lda OP Couple
over a year ago
sutton Coldfield |
Not in any way pleased. But if you listen to the rhetoric from the media, you’d assume thousands of cases and hundreds of deaths. Any deaths are bad, but this is nothing like as bad as the winter |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
"Bolton, last 7 days
Infections - 963
Hospitalisation - 11
Deaths - 3
From Gov uk website
Not exactly cause for panic
We'd had zero Covid deaths for weeks and weeks before this new hotspot sprang up. I'd say more infections and deaths are not something to be pleased about. Every time a virus is able to replicate itself, we risk new, favourable mutations cropping up."
read a lot into this since first started last year if you watch a sifi film on tv and you see news casts showing mass destruction that looks real so how do we know the news we watch re covid is not fiction and made in a studio yes theres a virus but is it covid or plane flu and made too look more devistating by false news and figures |
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"Bolton, last 7 days
Infections - 963
Hospitalisation - 11
Deaths - 3
From Gov uk website
Not exactly cause for panic
We'd had zero Covid deaths for weeks and weeks before this new hotspot sprang up. I'd say more infections and deaths are not something to be pleased about. Every time a virus is able to replicate itself, we risk new, favourable mutations cropping up. read a lot into this since first started last year if you watch a sifi film on tv and you see news casts showing mass destruction that looks real so how do we know the news we watch re covid is not fiction and made in a studio yes theres a virus but is it covid or plane flu and made too look more devistating by false news and figures"
Oh I don't know. It might be the people with first hand experience of working on the Covid wards etc?
My Grandad, hooked up to oxygen, slowly fading away in front of me, while I was decked up to the nines in full PPE was certainly not a figment of my imagination, nor a TV studio mock up.
Covid is real and trying to suggest otherwise is pure nonsense. |
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"I'm sure if it was someone in your family you'd think differently"
If one of my family got blood clots or anaphylaxis died after having the vaccine I'd think differently about vaccine safety. Where does that line of argument leave us? |
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"Bolton, last 7 days
Infections - 963
Hospitalisation - 11
Deaths - 3
From Gov uk website
Not exactly cause for panic
We'd had zero Covid deaths for weeks and weeks before this new hotspot sprang up. I'd say more infections and deaths are not something to be pleased about. Every time a virus is able to replicate itself, we risk new, favourable mutations cropping up. read a lot into this since first started last year if you watch a sifi film on tv and you see news casts showing mass destruction that looks real so how do we know the news we watch re covid is not fiction and made in a studio yes theres a virus but is it covid or plane flu and made too look more devistating by false news and figures"
Are you seriously thinking it's a hoax?
To what end,by whom?
Amazingly every hospital and all the staff, community nurses, the fire service and police detached driving ambulances etc etc all in on the what..
Cunning plan?  |
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"I'm sure if it was someone in your family you'd think differently
If one of my family got blood clots or anaphylaxis died after having the vaccine I'd think differently about vaccine safety. Where does that line of argument leave us?"
My disability was caused by pregnancy, but I don't go round suggesting women don't get pregnant. I recognise I'm one of the incredibly rare cases.
Ditto for the blood clots linked to vaccines. |
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By *lda OP Couple
over a year ago
sutton Coldfield |
"I'm sure if it was someone in your family you'd think differently
If one of my family got blood clots or anaphylaxis died after having the vaccine I'd think differently about vaccine safety. Where does that line of argument leave us?"
I don’t think they are suggesting you shouldn’t have the vaccine |
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"I'm sure if it was someone in your family you'd think differently
If one of my family got blood clots or anaphylaxis died after having the vaccine I'd think differently about vaccine safety. Where does that line of argument leave us?"
If one of your family went into anaphylaxis and died due to a bee sting or something they ate, would you feel different about bees or food? |
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"Bolton, last 7 days
Infections - 963
Hospitalisation - 11
Deaths - 3
From Gov uk website
Not exactly cause for panic"
The R rate for this variant is unknown and it could have an R rate of in excess of 5 compared with the uk (kent) variant.
The potential for an exponential rise is real, hence why its being flagged at an early stage.
Its not scare mongering, its very clever scientists who know far more about the virus and transmission than anyone here, voicing concerns.
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
"Bolton, last 7 days
Infections - 963
Hospitalisation - 11
Deaths - 3
From Gov uk website
Not exactly cause for panic"
Bit insensitive. Im glad one of your family isn't one if 3 that died. Maybe you have a different perspective if it had. God forbid.
Tut tut |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"Bolton, last 7 days
Infections - 963
Hospitalisation - 11
Deaths - 3
From Gov uk website
Not exactly cause for panic"
You’re viewing the figures in quite a foolish manner to be honest.
The prime number within these is infections, importantly viewed over a period, is it increasing? at what rate?
People don’t contract covid and immediately need a hospital or die etc... 10 - 14 days from now new infections will recover or have complications, what will be the infection rate then?
All that can be said with Bolton is the figures need to be watched, we don’t want to see infections doubling in a matter of days, if that’s the case we are in trouble.
The hope is they won’t, the hop is even if dramatically increased admissions won’t start to rise... it’s Unkown currently though. |
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"Bolton, last 7 days
Infections - 963
Hospitalisation - 11
Deaths - 3
From Gov uk website
Not exactly cause for panic
We'd had zero Covid deaths for weeks and weeks before this new hotspot sprang up. I'd say more infections and deaths are not something to be pleased about. Every time a virus is able to replicate itself, we risk new, favourable mutations cropping up. read a lot into this since first started last year if you watch a sifi film on tv and you see news casts showing mass destruction that looks real so how do we know the news we watch re covid is not fiction and made in a studio yes theres a virus but is it covid or plane flu and made too look more devistating by false news and figures"
WHY ?
Having watched two friends die i wish it was fake ! |
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A little perspective- do you understand the difference between linear and exponential growth? Or how those governments in (insert favourite country name here) ignored the pandemic in the early days precisely because they thought it was not serious and no way it could spiral out of control? |
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"Bolton, last 7 days
Infections - 963
Hospitalisation - 11
Deaths - 3
From Gov uk website
Not exactly cause for panic
The R rate for this variant is unknown and it could have an R rate of in excess of 5 compared with the uk (kent) variant.
The potential for an exponential rise is real, hence why its being flagged at an early stage.
Its not scare mongering, its very clever scientists who know far more about the virus and transmission than anyone here, voicing concerns.
"
An R of 5 or higher? That's... really bad.
To make the arithmetic easy, lets round up that 936 infections last week to 1000. But we'll use just 5 as the R, not higher.
So one generation of infection onwards (and these will be people already infected but not yet showing positive) = 5000 cases. That's already happened, they've got it already, nothing we can do about that.
Next generation after = 25,000 cases. Some of these might be already infected, but if Bolton was put into hard lockdown now, most could be prevented. Let's assume that instead we carry on with opening up plans, don't know about you but I really need a pint down the pub.
So one further generation, taking us to maybe June 21st... = 125,000 new cases.
Then beginning of July it could be hitting 625,000 new cases a week...
Of course, if the current vaccines are still effective against India variant, and we get a full 80% of the population vaccinated, the R of 5 would be depressed to an effective R of 1. Giving case numbers holding steady, not going up, not going down.
Get 90% of the population jabbed (not going to happen when so many under 30's still think they are virus proof, but if we did somehow) then effective R goes down to 0.5, case numbers halve every week. Then just takes about 12 generations of virus to continually halve the 5000 (already locked in remember) down to 1 case.
Get 95% vaccinations (not a hope in hell) and the virus would be wiped out in just 6 generations...
Anyway, cancel those summer plans, looks like it's going to be a covid July and August...
|
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"Bolton, last 7 days
Infections - 963
Hospitalisation - 11
Deaths - 3
From Gov uk website
Not exactly cause for panic
The R rate for this variant is unknown and it could have an R rate of in excess of 5 compared with the uk (kent) variant.
The potential for an exponential rise is real, hence why its being flagged at an early stage.
Its not scare mongering, its very clever scientists who know far more about the virus and transmission than anyone here, voicing concerns.
An R of 5 or higher? That's... really bad.
To make the arithmetic easy, lets round up that 936 infections last week to 1000. But we'll use just 5 as the R, not higher.
So one generation of infection onwards (and these will be people already infected but not yet showing positive) = 5000 cases. That's already happened, they've got it already, nothing we can do about that.
Next generation after = 25,000 cases. Some of these might be already infected, but if Bolton was put into hard lockdown now, most could be prevented. Let's assume that instead we carry on with opening up plans, don't know about you but I really need a pint down the pub.
So one further generation, taking us to maybe June 21st... = 125,000 new cases.
Then beginning of July it could be hitting 625,000 new cases a week...
Of course, if the current vaccines are still effective against India variant, and we get a full 80% of the population vaccinated, the R of 5 would be depressed to an effective R of 1. Giving case numbers holding steady, not going up, not going down.
Get 90% of the population jabbed (not going to happen when so many under 30's still think they are virus proof, but if we did somehow) then effective R goes down to 0.5, case numbers halve every week. Then just takes about 12 generations of virus to continually halve the 5000 (already locked in remember) down to 1 case.
Get 95% vaccinations (not a hope in hell) and the virus would be wiped out in just 6 generations...
Anyway, cancel those summer plans, looks like it's going to be a covid July and August...
"
I hope it's not 5. 2-3 has been bad enough  |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"I'm sure if it was someone in your family you'd think differently
If one of my family got blood clots or anaphylaxis died after having the vaccine I'd think differently about vaccine safety. Where does that line of argument leave us?
If one of your family went into anaphylaxis and died due to a bee sting or something they ate, would you feel different about bees or food? "
If one of your family (heaven forbid) get hit by a bus....would you avoid public transport? |
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"I'm sure if it was someone in your family you'd think differently
If one of my family got blood clots or anaphylaxis died after having the vaccine I'd think differently about vaccine safety. Where does that line of argument leave us?
If one of your family went into anaphylaxis and died due to a bee sting or something they ate, would you feel different about bees or food?
If one of your family (heaven forbid) get hit by a bus....would you avoid public transport? "
I'm sure a lot of people would.. And still do..
Trauma is a shocking thing |
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"I'm sure if it was someone in your family you'd think differently
If one of my family got blood clots or anaphylaxis died after having the vaccine I'd think differently about vaccine safety. Where does that line of argument leave us?
If one of your family went into anaphylaxis and died due to a bee sting or something they ate, would you feel different about bees or food?
If one of your family (heaven forbid) get hit by a bus....would you avoid public transport? "
Apparently only people who test positive have any chance of getting hit by a bus. But that’s only within 28 days of testing positive |
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Good 'perspective' of where we've been coming from. We had made substantial reductions in our infection levels by the dedication of millions of people to strict restrictions.
Then our 'leaders' learned of the awful situation in India and decided to let tens of thousands of people travel from there before deciding to impose some control after an extra delay.
No surprises that those tens of thousands of extra people coming from India that was already overwhelmed with the new variant of the virus included people who escaped to here.
They're not all in Bolton but people who have been in contact further down the chains of infection with those who flew in, are around Bolton.
This Indian variant is at least doubling in infection numbers every week. Contrast that with the rapid reductions we'd all invested so much in achieving.
The OP posted numbers that hinted there's no problem. Accepting the reality allows us to realistically progress from there. Our vaccination levels will help us to keep things restrained back from how bad they would have been otherwise. We only have restrictions or the vaccines to help us to get out of this mess. Pretence doesn't help. |
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"Bolton, last 7 days
Infections - 963
Hospitalisation - 11
Deaths - 3
From Gov uk website
Not exactly cause for panic
We'd had zero Covid deaths for weeks and weeks before this new hotspot sprang up. I'd say more infections and deaths are not something to be pleased about. Every time a virus is able to replicate itself, we risk new, favourable mutations cropping up. read a lot into this since first started last year if you watch a sifi film on tv and you see news casts showing mass destruction that looks real so how do we know the news we watch re covid is not fiction and made in a studio yes theres a virus but is it covid or plane flu and made too look more devistating by false news and figures"
You've 'read a lot' into this, you say. I suggest you exercise some greater self-control over managing your attention in future There's copious amounts of reputable scientific evidence and data that would obviously be better than some of the things that you hint you've invested all of that time and energy into. |
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By *lda OP Couple
over a year ago
sutton Coldfield |
There have been suggestions, no more, that it may be up to 50% more infectious.
There is no evidence that it is resistant to the vaccine.
The numbers of hospitalisations and deaths are low..
Caution, I understand.
But this, we’ll be in lockdown in June, it has an R rate of 5, panic, I do not |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"I'm sure if it was someone in your family you'd think differently"
Think this misses the OPs point. They didn’t say it wasn’t sad people died they said 3 deaths doesn’t need such a panic. |
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"I'm sure if it was someone in your family you'd think differently
Think this misses the OPs point. They didn’t say it wasn’t sad people died they said 3 deaths doesn’t need such a panic. "
If it was just a statistical wobble with no evidence of underlying trend, then there would be no need for panic. If the numbers of infections and hospitalisations drop to near zero next week then probably no cause for panic.
However if there is evidence of any climb in numbers, then this could be very serious indeed. The problem with predicting this all the way through has been the way that exponential growth works, and the lag between actual date of the contact causing infection and virus multiplication in the body to the point where it can show as a test result or give symptoms. By the time that measurable numbers are dying, there are at least two further generations of infection that have actually occurred. Effectively, when on the upward slope of the exponential path, whatever number of people are showing infection one week, there are already five or ten times that number of people who have already contracted the disease and will be showing it in about two weeks. And out of those people, there are a number that are "walking dead", it doesn't matter what they do now about being more diligent at wearing masks and washing hands, going for a jab now won't make the slightest difference. They don't know who they are, but in a week they will feel poorly, in two weeks they might be in hospital...
With an exponentially spreading disease, there is no place for "the numbers are low, it's silly to panic". Three times the government have fallen into that trap. Three times they have promised that there will be no problem. Twice already everything has gone wrong, and unless we are unbelievably lucky this time now may be no different. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"Bolton, last 7 days
Infections - 963
Hospitalisation - 11
Deaths - 3
From Gov uk website
Not exactly cause for panic
You’re viewing the figures in quite a foolish manner to be honest.
The prime number within these is infections, importantly viewed over a period, is it increasing? at what rate?
People don’t contract covid and immediately need a hospital or die etc... 10 - 14 days from now new infections will recover or have complications, what will be the infection rate then?
All that can be said with Bolton is the figures need to be watched, we don’t want to see infections doubling in a matter of days, if that’s the case we are in trouble.
The hope is they won’t, the hop is even if dramatically increased admissions won’t start to rise... it’s Unkown currently though."
So Charlie knows what she is talking about.
There is a lot more to the figures than blanket hospitalisations. What is the age range. How many have been hospitalised after 10 days of infection. How many of those 900+ have been vaccinated. We need to watch all this data and make a decision Monday as what to do next |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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What this pandemic has reminded me about was the time i was recovering from a rare form of cancer in my early twenties. My immune system was very low for a long time, i couldn't balance, i had limited mobility. I would dream of the day i could do things that everyone else could and promise myself to not take life for granted. Live it well. I have always wanted to run in marathons for cancer charities and once we get past this pandemic, i'm going to run for good causes, travel, live a self less life helping others. it took this insane awful virus to remind me of that. Take nothing for granted. |
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