I can’t be the only one that’s confused regarding the R number?
We are at 0.8-1.1 or whatever it was this week and every couple of weeks this rises and falls slightly.
So how does the infection rate stay the same each week if the positive number of cases are falling and the number of vaccinated people continues to rise? |
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"I can’t be the only one that’s confused regarding the R number?
We are at 0.8-1.1 or whatever it was this week and every couple of weeks this rises and falls slightly.
So how does the infection rate stay the same each week if the positive number of cases are falling and the number of vaccinated people continues to rise?"
The R rate is the estimate of how many people an infected person will infect. If it's less than one then the number of infected people will go down. But if you have 2000 infected people and the r is 1.1 then the increase in the number infections will be high than if 100 people were infected and the r rate was 1.2. |
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The fewer people who have the virus, the greater the effect of a few new cases on the R number.
So with the current low level of infection, a few selfish people having parties can markedly affect the statistics. |
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"If R is below 1, the infection rates will drop. R can remain at 0.8 and rates will continue to drop because each infected person passes the virus onto less than one other on average."
I understand what the r rate is, I’m just wondering why it isn’t falling as the number of unvaccinated people is falling every day and the latest ONS recorded 7/10 people showing antibodies.
I know the vaccine doesn’t stop you catching it, but it massively reduces the chance. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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As I said previously on another thread a while ago.
If the vaccine of 45+ doesn't go to plan. A new variant will emerge. We will ease restrictions for enough time for businesses to rake in some cash, then go into lockdown for the summer holidays.
Already we have reports of a "showing down of vaccine uptake"
A tripling of the "Indian variant"
Seriously. Is anyone seeing a pattern here?
Most of the people involved in the decision making are heavily invested in the vaccines and ppe.
You can find that out easily with a bit of research.
For the love of God. Follow the money if you want the truth.
Not trying to convince anyone.
Just concerned for everyone who really thinks this is about a bloody coronavirus that a retired expert in pathology explains. Between 40 to 60 percent of people in the UK are already immune to SarsCov2.
Don't mock the messenger.
Do the research.
Find out for yourself.
Your future Seriously depends on it.
Much love.
X |
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"If R is below 1, the infection rates will drop. R can remain at 0.8 and rates will continue to drop because each infected person passes the virus onto less than one other on average.
I understand what the r rate is, I’m just wondering why it isn’t falling as the number of unvaccinated people is falling every day and the latest ONS recorded 7/10 people showing antibodies.
I know the vaccine doesn’t stop you catching it, but it massively reduces the chance. "
As pointed out above at lower infection levels a super spreader or small group of spreaders can have a big on the r numbers. Also its only about 70% of adults have anti bodies, the total population is around 50%. So I guess the r number not coming down is a combo of releasing lockdown and international variants being added to the mix. |
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Completely agree, I called this months ago.
New variants are coming.
I'm being told to get a vaccine even though no one under 60 has died within 28 days of a positve test (don't get me started on that one) for months now.
"Oh, but you should do it then to protect others...
You mean the others that have been vaccinated already?
There's more money in it - keeping people sick. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"Completely agree, I called this months ago.
New variants are coming.
I'm being told to get a vaccine even though no one under 60 has died within 28 days of a positve test (don't get me started on that one) for months now.
"Oh, but you should do it then to protect others...
You mean the others that have been vaccinated already?
There's more money in it - keeping people sick."
Thats not true!
My friends father died of Covid 5 weeks ago and was 56.
Would you please show proof of your claims please and also you seem to be suggesting the lives of those over 60 don't matter. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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Average age of death from Covid-19
82
Average age of death from all causes.
81
Don't have to believe me.
Go look.
Obviously people with underlying health issues may be susceptible.
Saying "oh they were perfectly healthy" is a very very weak argument. Maybe they had a condition they didn't know about? |
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The government data.
When did I suggest that the lives of people over 60 didn't matter?
I suggested that those who should (and have chosen to) have the vaccine - have done. Chances of them getting Covid 19 after this is 0.0005% and dying from it 0.0001%
Keep watching the mainstream media and believing people who have been proven as liars. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"The government data.
When did I suggest that the lives of people over 60 didn't matter?
I suggested that those who should (and have chosen to) have the vaccine - have done. Chances of them getting Covid 19 after this is 0.0005% and dying from it 0.0001%
Keep watching the mainstream media and believing people who have been proven as liars."
What government data says nobody of the 60 has died of covid for months please?
My friend who's dad died 5 weeks ago is no proven lier. |
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In a thought experiment.
1000 people have a disease. Its R number is 0.8.
Those 1000 people infect 800 people, because 1000 x 0.8 is 800.
So if we have 800 infected people and the R number is 0.8, they then infect 640 people.
640 people infect 512 people at a rate of 0.8.
... Etc.
The number of vaccinated people means that those who cannot be infected goes up, but there are people still to infect. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"The government data.
When did I suggest that the lives of people over 60 didn't matter?
I suggested that those who should (and have chosen to) have the vaccine - have done. Chances of them getting Covid 19 after this is 0.0005% and dying from it 0.0001%
Keep watching the mainstream media and believing people who have been proven as liars.
What government data says nobody of the 60 has died of covid for months please?
My friend who's dad died 5 weeks ago is no proven lier. "
Sorry for your friend's loss.
I've lost two uncles to covid.
1 was in very poor health. 56.
1 broke his hip. Caught sepsis. Died. Covid put as Cause of death. Family are taking legal action. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"Because it’s all made up ... and the numbers suit the agenda ....
Source, please. Peer reviewed and published."
I trust you'll provide your evidence to the opposite. |
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"If R is below 1, the infection rates will drop. R can remain at 0.8 and rates will continue to drop because each infected person passes the virus onto less than one other on average.
I understand what the r rate is, I’m just wondering why it isn’t falling as the number of unvaccinated people is falling every day and the latest ONS recorded 7/10 people showing antibodies.
I know the vaccine doesn’t stop you catching it, but it massively reduces the chance. "
I think the latest variant of covid is doing the rounds, so there is an increase in infections being recorded. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"As I said previously on another thread a while ago.
If the vaccine of 45+ doesn't go to plan. A new variant will emerge. We will ease restrictions for enough time for businesses to rake in some cash, then go into lockdown for the summer holidays.
Already we have reports of a "showing down of vaccine uptake"
A tripling of the "Indian variant"
Seriously. Is anyone seeing a pattern here?
Most of the people involved in the decision making are heavily invested in the vaccines and ppe.
You can find that out easily with a bit of research.
For the love of God. Follow the money if you want the truth.
Not trying to convince anyone.
Just concerned for everyone who really thinks this is about a bloody coronavirus that a retired expert in pathology explains. Between 40 to 60 percent of people in the UK are already immune to SarsCov2.
Don't mock the messenger.
Do the research.
Find out for yourself.
Your future Seriously depends on it.
Much love.
X"
Youre in danger of frightening the sheep. |
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