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Antibodies found in blood samples from 2019
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By *adet OP Man
over a year ago
South of Ipswich |
Italian researchers who took blood samples from across Italy in 2019 have found antibodies to covid SARS 2 as far back as September 2019. This means the virus was likely there as far back as August 2019 with particularly high levels found in the Lombardy region
Out of 900 samples they found that over 100 tested positive for antibodies |
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By *indergirlWoman
over a year ago
somewhere, someplace |
I'm not surprised at all, Dec 2019 onwards I was awfully ill with what we now know as covid symptoms, and so were a lot of my colleagues, we just put it down to normal winter bugs and just got on with it. |
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By *adet OP Man
over a year ago
South of Ipswich |
"
I'm not surprised at all, Dec 2019 onwards I was awfully ill with what we now know as covid symptoms, and so were a lot of my colleagues, we just put it down to normal winter bugs and just got on with it."
Yes, and Italian doctors recorded a number of respiratory infections and marked it up as a particularly aggressive strain of influenza |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"
I'm not surprised at all, Dec 2019 onwards I was awfully ill with what we now know as covid symptoms, and so were a lot of my colleagues, we just put it down to normal winter bugs and just got on with it."
Same, December 2019. I had a bad cough for months.
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By *adet OP Man
over a year ago
South of Ipswich |
"Could this mean that the virus didn't come from China ?"
Apparently there are quite a high number of seasonal workers from China in Lombardy and most of the evidence does point to it originating in China |
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"Could this mean that the virus didn't come from China ?"
But that August organisation, the who have thoroughly investigated and concluded.... It came from china but not a lab.?
If this is true... And as we have seen in all countries without behaviour modification, numbers take off like crazy from first infections. So if this is true, why wasn't there a massive spike of cases (wave) in Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb?
|
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"Could this mean that the virus didn't come from China ?
But that August organisation, the who have thoroughly investigated and concluded.... It came from china but not a lab.?
If this is true... And as we have seen in all countries without behaviour modification, numbers take off like crazy from first infections. So if this is true, why wasn't there a massive spike of cases (wave) in Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb?
"
We weren't looking is the easy answer. Otherwise I don't know.
The genetic sampling of viruses in the area suggests an ultimate origin of the virus in that region - other bat viruses are pretty close. |
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By *69BANMan
over a year ago
Reading |
None of you had COVID before 23Jan last year, if you did you would be the index case A, and we know that not to be the case 
There is a large possibility of false positives from the tests the study used and I cannot find anything to say further testing has confirmed the initial findings. It's not beyond possible for the virus to be circulating earlier but if it was then it could be expected that what we saw happen in northern Italy would have happened earlier... unless the variant at that stage was not as infectious as that in Dec2019. |
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"Could this mean that the virus didn't come from China ?
But that August organisation, the who have thoroughly investigated and concluded.... It came from china but not a lab.?
If this is true... And as we have seen in all countries without behaviour modification, numbers take off like crazy from first infections. So if this is true, why wasn't there a massive spike of cases (wave) in Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb?
We weren't looking is the easy answer. Otherwise I don't know.
The genetic sampling of viruses in the area suggests an ultimate origin of the virus in that region - other bat viruses are pretty close."
So... Because we weren't looking it didn't happen? It's a bit like that existential saying about the tree falling in the forest... If nobody sees it, did it really happen.? Cases have rocketed in Brazil, UK, Spain, Italy, Belgium, USA within weeks of finding infections for waves 1 2 and 3. And yet case 1 was apparently lying dormant in lombardy 6 months before we have all been told, with no explosion in cases? Seems a bit out of character with its behaviour since March 2020 no? |
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By *ubal1Man
over a year ago
Newry Down |
This is unsurprising. This virus has been in the UK and Ireland from late-2019.
Many people I have spoken to are convinced they had worrying symptoms from that time; I developed a cough, increasing fatigue and breathing problems in 2020, especially at night, that got progressively worse, with joint pain, but no loss of taste or smell.
Mercifully, I slowly recovered and unlike thousands of others, survived. |
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I caught it in dec 2019 at Wembley arena when Giggs and ms banks performed & I was really fucked for around 2-3 weeks and didn’t feel right until around feb 2020 so yes it was here long before they say |
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"Could this mean that the virus didn't come from China ?
But that August organisation, the who have thoroughly investigated and concluded.... It came from china but not a lab.?
If this is true... And as we have seen in all countries without behaviour modification, numbers take off like crazy from first infections. So if this is true, why wasn't there a massive spike of cases (wave) in Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb?
We weren't looking is the easy answer. Otherwise I don't know.
The genetic sampling of viruses in the area suggests an ultimate origin of the virus in that region - other bat viruses are pretty close.
So... Because we weren't looking it didn't happen? It's a bit like that existential saying about the tree falling in the forest... If nobody sees it, did it really happen.? Cases have rocketed in Brazil, UK, Spain, Italy, Belgium, USA within weeks of finding infections for waves 1 2 and 3. And yet case 1 was apparently lying dormant in lombardy 6 months before we have all been told, with no explosion in cases? Seems a bit out of character with its behaviour since March 2020 no? "
... No. There were cases before the first detected case of HIV, for example. We didn't know. The index case was the first we found.
So if it was working its way around Italy, there would have been some people with unexplained pneumonia and others with a bit of a bug with some weird symptoms. (Obviously Covid but we weren't to know then)
I don't know why cases didn't explode then - that's a question for a scientist not a concerned amateur  |
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By *errysMan
over a year ago
milton keynes and kent |
I think the reason for a possible initial virus spreading slow is well advertised covid as we first knew was very contagious... then came the kent variant.
A virus can become more infectious and more severe. |
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"I think the reason for a possible initial virus spreading slow is well advertised covid as we first knew was very contagious... then came the kent variant.
A virus can become more infectious and more severe."
There was a new variant in I think Singapore in the middle of the year last year - it predominated before the Kent variant and the others, over the original. Something like that is certainly possible. |
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"I have known 2 relatives to be ill with bovid symptoms prior to Christmas 2019"
I know I had it in December 2019. I had been in Milan for a holiday at the end of November, beginning of December I got a none descript viral infection ( as they didnt even really know about covid )
.I was still testing positive for antibodies just before I had my vaccine on the research project I was part of.
Now they are looking at how the vaccine affects the antibodies too x |
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"None of you had COVID before 23Jan last year, if you did you would be the index case A, and we know that not to be the case
There is a large possibility of false positives from the tests the study used and I cannot find anything to say further testing has confirmed the initial findings. It's not beyond possible for the virus to be circulating earlier but if it was then it could be expected that what we saw happen in northern Italy would have happened earlier... unless the variant at that stage was not as infectious as that in Dec2019. "
Italy and the Lombardi region was in the grips or the worst pneumonia epidemic they had seen when I was there in Nov 2019. I had it in December 2019. I think it was perhaps less virulent than it later mutated to be. But I know plenty of people that late Dec, early jan working in hospitals that saw admissions which mimic covid but obviously wasnt linked at that time. They are now looking into it. |
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Yea I believe it 100% I caught it the night I went to Wembley arena and there were thousands of people there so loads would of had it but it was cold and flu season anyway So many would of thought that. For most it is like a very bad flu Or a slight cold although I had some mad heart rates and did struggle getting my breath at times For the first few weeks . From what I read and see the people it really messes up are generally people over weight or very old . |
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Is this new research evidence?
The fact that International travel wasn't particularly restricted until fairly recently and that the virus had probably been silently spreading in its country of origin and leaking through borders, should be no surprise. If it had established itself somewhere that has fewer controls over open public communication than China, then it hints at the limitations of those countries medical investigations and analysis. |
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"Is this new research evidence?
The fact that International travel wasn't particularly restricted until fairly recently and that the virus had probably been silently spreading in its country of origin and leaking through borders, should be no surprise. If it had established itself somewhere that has fewer controls over open public communication than China, then it hints at the limitations of those countries medical investigations and analysis. "
Thank goodness China picked it up.
There's a research paper in Sage Open by G Apolone- hopefully that's enough to Google it. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"Could this mean that the virus didn't come from China ?"
i wonder if it means it was about longer but a much less contagious version so just being written off as flu (its not like we had a widespread flu testing programme) , and like we are now getting kent strains and brazil strains, possibly the strain that went crazy contagious originated in china as it certainly seems evident that the first bad outbreak was there - just perhaps we thought it was a new virus when it was actually a new mutation of an existing virus
all just surmising of course |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"Could this mean that the virus didn't come from China ?
i wonder if it means it was about longer but a much less contagious version so just being written off as flu (its not like we had a widespread flu testing programme) , and like we are now getting kent strains and brazil strains, possibly the strain that went crazy contagious originated in china as it certainly seems evident that the first bad outbreak was there - just perhaps we thought it was a new virus when it was actually a new mutation of an existing virus
all just surmising of course "
just realised it must also have been a more deadly strain rather than just more contagious or we would have noticed the increased hospitalisation and deaths earlier |
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It's possible that it was around in 2019, one scientist has claimed that his research suggests the original virus has been altered to be more "effective".... Maybe the Chinese were experimenting with it as a possible weapon, and it escaped by accident? |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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My mother came back from a cruise in October 2018, she thought she had pneumonia, hospitals said it wasn't, scared lung tissue and really ill for 6 months took 12 months to recover.
Chinese staff on the cruise. |
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"It's possible that it was around in 2019, one scientist has claimed that his research suggests the original virus has been altered to be more "effective".... Maybe the Chinese were experimenting with it as a possible weapon, and it escaped by accident?"
I don't any decent scientist has suggested the virus was "altered" by humans. Could it have escaped from a Chinese lab that was studying it? Possible but very very unlikely. Chinese using it as a biological weapon absolute guff. |
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"My mother came back from a cruise in October 2018, she thought she had pneumonia, hospitals said it wasn't, scared lung tissue and really ill for 6 months took 12 months to recover.
Chinese staff on the cruise. "
What did the docs say it was. If they said it was covid 19 then she would be the world's first recorded case. |
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"I know little of the workings of the who. But wouldn't you have hoped that this might have been at least looked at by the who when they spent a year trying to track its origins? "
I do know work has been done to try to establish the date of bat to human jump, based on how many generations of virus it goes back. Estimates say no earlier than August 2019 if I recall correctly. |
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"I know little of the workings of the who. But wouldn't you have hoped that this might have been at least looked at by the who when they spent a year trying to track its origins?
I do know work has been done to try to establish the date of bat to human jump, based on how many generations of virus it goes back. Estimates say no earlier than August 2019 if I recall correctly."
Have they not completed their investigations though? I wonder what they investigated and where.... |
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"I know little of the workings of the who. But wouldn't you have hoped that this might have been at least looked at by the who when they spent a year trying to track its origins?
I do know work has been done to try to establish the date of bat to human jump, based on how many generations of virus it goes back. Estimates say no earlier than August 2019 if I recall correctly.
Have they not completed their investigations though? I wonder what they investigated and where...."
It's not just WHO investigating. I think (heard it ages ago) this might have been Eco Health alliance. I know I heard it on This Week in Virology. They were able to look at the earliest known samples of SARS-CoV-2 and estimate how many ancestors it had, or something like that. (Help I need a scientist. Bat signal for a scientist ) |
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"I know little of the workings of the who. But wouldn't you have hoped that this might have been at least looked at by the who when they spent a year trying to track its origins?
I do know work has been done to try to establish the date of bat to human jump, based on how many generations of virus it goes back. Estimates say no earlier than August 2019 if I recall correctly.
Have they not completed their investigations though? I wonder what they investigated and where....
It's not just WHO investigating. I think (heard it ages ago) this might have been Eco Health alliance. I know I heard it on This Week in Virology. They were able to look at the earliest known samples of SARS-CoV-2 and estimate how many ancestors it had, or something like that. (Help I need a scientist. Bat signal for a scientist )"
No I understand... Youre much better informed but I guess what Im trying to say is... I've always been sceptical if what the who actually does and for whom and the accuracy and independence of the things it states as scientific facts. Trump was given a kicking for saying what others were scared to. And then along came covid and Im not sure if they have added much value to our responses. And then a year after a nominal start date they performed an investigation into the origins.... And concluded it was a wet market in downtown Wuhan...id have thought with something that has fucked the world up the arse like this... They may have been a bit more thorough and diligent. Or concluded.... "we don't have a clue but are investigating all regions firts cases"... Let's hope its helpful one way or another. |
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"I know little of the workings of the who. But wouldn't you have hoped that this might have been at least looked at by the who when they spent a year trying to track its origins?
I do know work has been done to try to establish the date of bat to human jump, based on how many generations of virus it goes back. Estimates say no earlier than August 2019 if I recall correctly.
Have they not completed their investigations though? I wonder what they investigated and where....
It's not just WHO investigating. I think (heard it ages ago) this might have been Eco Health alliance. I know I heard it on This Week in Virology. They were able to look at the earliest known samples of SARS-CoV-2 and estimate how many ancestors it had, or something like that. (Help I need a scientist. Bat signal for a scientist )
No I understand... Youre much better informed but I guess what Im trying to say is... I've always been sceptical if what the who actually does and for whom and the accuracy and independence of the things it states as scientific facts. Trump was given a kicking for saying what others were scared to. And then along came covid and Im not sure if they have added much value to our responses. And then a year after a nominal start date they performed an investigation into the origins.... And concluded it was a wet market in downtown Wuhan...id have thought with something that has fucked the world up the arse like this... They may have been a bit more thorough and diligent. Or concluded.... "we don't have a clue but are investigating all regions firts cases"... Let's hope its helpful one way or another. "
I think it's unfortunate it's been turned into a political football. WHO should be an organisation we can all rely on: our lives may depend on it. |
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"I know little of the workings of the who. But wouldn't you have hoped that this might have been at least looked at by the who when they spent a year trying to track its origins?
I do know work has been done to try to establish the date of bat to human jump, based on how many generations of virus it goes back. Estimates say no earlier than August 2019 if I recall correctly.
Have they not completed their investigations though? I wonder what they investigated and where....
It's not just WHO investigating. I think (heard it ages ago) this might have been Eco Health alliance. I know I heard it on This Week in Virology. They were able to look at the earliest known samples of SARS-CoV-2 and estimate how many ancestors it had, or something like that. (Help I need a scientist. Bat signal for a scientist )
No I understand... Youre much better informed but I guess what Im trying to say is... I've always been sceptical if what the who actually does and for whom and the accuracy and independence of the things it states as scientific facts. Trump was given a kicking for saying what others were scared to. And then along came covid and Im not sure if they have added much value to our responses. And then a year after a nominal start date they performed an investigation into the origins.... And concluded it was a wet market in downtown Wuhan...id have thought with something that has fucked the world up the arse like this... They may have been a bit more thorough and diligent. Or concluded.... "we don't have a clue but are investigating all regions firts cases"... Let's hope its helpful one way or another.
I think it's unfortunate it's been turned into a political football. WHO should be an organisation we can all rely on: our lives may depend on it."
They should absolutely be fearlessly apolitical and unencumbered by associations with big pharma or big business. |
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"I know little of the workings of the who. But wouldn't you have hoped that this might have been at least looked at by the who when they spent a year trying to track its origins?
I do know work has been done to try to establish the date of bat to human jump, based on how many generations of virus it goes back. Estimates say no earlier than August 2019 if I recall correctly.
Have they not completed their investigations though? I wonder what they investigated and where....
It's not just WHO investigating. I think (heard it ages ago) this might have been Eco Health alliance. I know I heard it on This Week in Virology. They were able to look at the earliest known samples of SARS-CoV-2 and estimate how many ancestors it had, or something like that. (Help I need a scientist. Bat signal for a scientist )
No I understand... Youre much better informed but I guess what Im trying to say is... I've always been sceptical if what the who actually does and for whom and the accuracy and independence of the things it states as scientific facts. Trump was given a kicking for saying what others were scared to. And then along came covid and Im not sure if they have added much value to our responses. And then a year after a nominal start date they performed an investigation into the origins.... And concluded it was a wet market in downtown Wuhan...id have thought with something that has fucked the world up the arse like this... They may have been a bit more thorough and diligent. Or concluded.... "we don't have a clue but are investigating all regions firts cases"... Let's hope its helpful one way or another.
I think it's unfortunate it's been turned into a political football. WHO should be an organisation we can all rely on: our lives may depend on it.
They should absolutely be fearlessly apolitical and unencumbered by associations with big pharma or big business."
Yes. But then money comes from government - and they all need to play nice together. Which is the problem. (Not picking on any country. Any country) |
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"I know little of the workings of the who. But wouldn't you have hoped that this might have been at least looked at by the who when they spent a year trying to track its origins?
I do know work has been done to try to establish the date of bat to human jump, based on how many generations of virus it goes back. Estimates say no earlier than August 2019 if I recall correctly.
Have they not completed their investigations though? I wonder what they investigated and where....
It's not just WHO investigating. I think (heard it ages ago) this might have been Eco Health alliance. I know I heard it on This Week in Virology. They were able to look at the earliest known samples of SARS-CoV-2 and estimate how many ancestors it had, or something like that. (Help I need a scientist. Bat signal for a scientist )
No I understand... Youre much better informed but I guess what Im trying to say is... I've always been sceptical if what the who actually does and for whom and the accuracy and independence of the things it states as scientific facts. Trump was given a kicking for saying what others were scared to. And then along came covid and Im not sure if they have added much value to our responses. And then a year after a nominal start date they performed an investigation into the origins.... And concluded it was a wet market in downtown Wuhan...id have thought with something that has fucked the world up the arse like this... They may have been a bit more thorough and diligent. Or concluded.... "we don't have a clue but are investigating all regions firts cases"... Let's hope its helpful one way or another.
I think it's unfortunate it's been turned into a political football. WHO should be an organisation we can all rely on: our lives may depend on it.
They should absolutely be fearlessly apolitical and unencumbered by associations with big pharma or big business.
Yes. But then money comes from government - and they all need to play nice together. Which is the problem. (Not picking on any country. Any country)"
I think we agree. Whatever and wherever it is funded should not impact on its ability to discharge its role. Whatever that may be. Which is not clear to me. Is it an advisory Council, does it have executive powers and ability to intervene or influence or is it a glorified Facebook page. |
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"I know little of the workings of the who. But wouldn't you have hoped that this might have been at least looked at by the who when they spent a year trying to track its origins?
I do know work has been done to try to establish the date of bat to human jump, based on how many generations of virus it goes back. Estimates say no earlier than August 2019 if I recall correctly.
Have they not completed their investigations though? I wonder what they investigated and where....
It's not just WHO investigating. I think (heard it ages ago) this might have been Eco Health alliance. I know I heard it on This Week in Virology. They were able to look at the earliest known samples of SARS-CoV-2 and estimate how many ancestors it had, or something like that. (Help I need a scientist. Bat signal for a scientist )
No I understand... Youre much better informed but I guess what Im trying to say is... I've always been sceptical if what the who actually does and for whom and the accuracy and independence of the things it states as scientific facts. Trump was given a kicking for saying what others were scared to. And then along came covid and Im not sure if they have added much value to our responses. And then a year after a nominal start date they performed an investigation into the origins.... And concluded it was a wet market in downtown Wuhan...id have thought with something that has fucked the world up the arse like this... They may have been a bit more thorough and diligent. Or concluded.... "we don't have a clue but are investigating all regions firts cases"... Let's hope its helpful one way or another.
I think it's unfortunate it's been turned into a political football. WHO should be an organisation we can all rely on: our lives may depend on it.
They should absolutely be fearlessly apolitical and unencumbered by associations with big pharma or big business.
Yes. But then money comes from government - and they all need to play nice together. Which is the problem. (Not picking on any country. Any country)
I think we agree. Whatever and wherever it is funded should not impact on its ability to discharge its role. Whatever that may be. Which is not clear to me. Is it an advisory Council, does it have executive powers and ability to intervene or influence or is it a glorified Facebook page. "
Yes, we do agree  |
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"Could this mean that the virus didn't come from China ?
But that August organisation, the who have thoroughly investigated and concluded.... It came from china but not a lab.?
If this is true... And as we have seen in all countries without behaviour modification, numbers take off like crazy from first infections. So if this is true, why wasn't there a massive spike of cases (wave) in Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb?
"
I do recall that prior to the first cases of what we now know to be COVID-19, Nothern Italy bad been plagued by many cases of a 'strange pneumonia' - it is often a case of you find what you are looking for and sometimes what you are not. In common with a few people in this thread Ms Bicpl and I are pretty sure that we both had Covid - with the benefit of hindsight, granted - in Sheffield in December 2019. One of us is an infectious diseases person, so quite confident in what we are saying |
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"Could this mean that the virus didn't come from China ?
But that August organisation, the who have thoroughly investigated and concluded.... It came from china but not a lab.?
If this is true... And as we have seen in all countries without behaviour modification, numbers take off like crazy from first infections. So if this is true, why wasn't there a massive spike of cases (wave) in Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb?
I do recall that prior to the first cases of what we now know to be COVID-19, Nothern Italy bad been plagued by many cases of a 'strange pneumonia' - it is often a case of you find what you are looking for and sometimes what you are not. In common with a few people in this thread Ms Bicpl and I are pretty sure that we both had Covid - with the benefit of hindsight, granted - in Sheffield in December 2019. One of us is an infectious diseases person, so quite confident in what we are saying "
there was in certain parts of Italy. They did trace a group that had traveled from wuhan to Milan in November but while I was there there was a lot of coverage on the news about this " pneumonia ". I then was floored by a viral infection that matches the covid 19 symptoms a week later although I had what I thought was a cold/ flu like thing for a couple of days before it floored me |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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What i dont understand is why people weren't dying from it before December?
We and other other countries would have noticed the excess hospital admissions and deaths.
Covid is not new its the covid 19 strain that's new. |
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By *ucka39Man
over a year ago
Newcastle |
This explains why not only myself but a wide majority of people felt like shit from September onwards yet as I recall on a thread back last year people were saying not possible like they know everything duh everyone is different and body functions differently same as development of the immune system to fight against viruses some people have a weak ratio to build up but not everyone has the same lifestyle choices diet and so on some do have a healthy immune system and never know how it will react to something new and the response |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"This explains why not only myself but a wide majority of people felt like shit from September onwards yet as I recall on a thread back last year people were saying not possible like they know everything duh everyone is different and body functions differently same as development of the immune system to fight against viruses some people have a weak ratio to build up but not everyone has the same lifestyle choices diet and so on some do have a healthy immune system and never know how it will react to something new and the response "
its not possible that it was the virus in the current state we know it - hospitals would have noticed the increased admissions, icu cases and deaths
everyone is different sure, but are you suggesting its possible that only people with fantastic immune systems got it early and thats why we didn’t notice because that is just ridiculous |
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"This explains why not only myself but a wide majority of people felt like shit from September onwards yet as I recall on a thread back last year people were saying not possible like they know everything duh everyone is different and body functions differently same as development of the immune system to fight against viruses some people have a weak ratio to build up but not everyone has the same lifestyle choices diet and so on some do have a healthy immune system and never know how it will react to something new and the response
its not possible that it was the virus in the current state we know it - hospitals would have noticed the increased admissions, icu cases and deaths
everyone is different sure, but are you suggesting its possible that only people with fantastic immune systems got it early and thats why we didn’t notice because that is just ridiculous "
Definitely if covid 19 had been widespread at the end of 2019 we would have seen far more people in icu and sadly deaths. There could have been isolated cases but it did not start spread in the UK til probably end of January at the earliest. |
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I know loads of office workers and they all said around nov dec 2019 there was a flu like illness that was working it’s way through offices but same again cz it was so early most just put it down to flu season . Looking back on it makes you wonder just how early it was going about |
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By *ucka39Man
over a year ago
Newcastle |
"This explains why not only myself but a wide majority of people felt like shit from September onwards yet as I recall on a thread back last year people were saying not possible like they know everything duh everyone is different and body functions differently same as development of the immune system to fight against viruses some people have a weak ratio to build up but not everyone has the same lifestyle choices diet and so on some do have a healthy immune system and never know how it will react to something new and the response
its not possible that it was the virus in the current state we know it - hospitals would have noticed the increased admissions, icu cases and deaths
everyone is different sure, but are you suggesting its possible that only people with fantastic immune systems got it early and thats why we didn’t notice because that is just ridiculous "
How long does the growth of a typical virus take before it is able to have full growth causing an infectious infection or disease to clog organs within the human body before the bodies immune response is able to act remember everyone is different so a healthy person who is able to miss several years without a common cold has a greater chance but what do I know because I know myself better and don't rely on online chit chat with pros and cons which is based on speculation |
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By *ucka39Man
over a year ago
Newcastle |
"This explains why not only myself but a wide majority of people felt like shit from September onwards yet as I recall on a thread back last year people were saying not possible like they know everything duh everyone is different and body functions differently same as development of the immune system to fight against viruses some people have a weak ratio to build up but not everyone has the same lifestyle choices diet and so on some do have a healthy immune system and never know how it will react to something new and the response
its not possible that it was the virus in the current state we know it - hospitals would have noticed the increased admissions, icu cases and deaths
everyone is different sure, but are you suggesting its possible that only people with fantastic immune systems got it early and thats why we didn’t notice because that is just ridiculous
Definitely if covid 19 had been widespread at the end of 2019 we would have seen far more people in icu and sadly deaths. There could have been isolated cases but it did not start spread in the UK til probably end of January at the earliest. "
Not necessarily because a virus I believe needs to survive and if able to hence attached to humans became carriers similar things happen with animals |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"This explains why not only myself but a wide majority of people felt like shit from September onwards yet as I recall on a thread back last year people were saying not possible like they know everything duh everyone is different and body functions differently same as development of the immune system to fight against viruses some people have a weak ratio to build up but not everyone has the same lifestyle choices diet and so on some do have a healthy immune system and never know how it will react to something new and the response
its not possible that it was the virus in the current state we know it - hospitals would have noticed the increased admissions, icu cases and deaths
everyone is different sure, but are you suggesting its possible that only people with fantastic immune systems got it early and thats why we didn’t notice because that is just ridiculous
How long does the growth of a typical virus take before it is able to have full growth causing an infectious infection or disease to clog organs within the human body before the bodies immune response is able to act remember everyone is different so a healthy person who is able to miss several years without a common cold has a greater chance but what do I know because I know myself better and don't rely on online chit chat with pros and cons which is based on speculation"
and yet here you are speculating that covid 19 was about in the uk in the late summer/ autumn of 2019 which is against all the medical and scientific evidence |
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"What i dont understand is why people weren't dying from it before December?
We and other other countries would have noticed the excess hospital admissions and deaths.
Covid is not new its the covid 19 strain that's new. "
they were in Italy at least... but it was being put down to pneumonia |
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I'm pretty sure my Dad's severe pneumonia in January 2020 was Covid. He had the silent hypoxia and other symptoms and it's left him with permanently damaged lungs and heart. Possibly impacted his dementia and escalated it too. Before the pandemic, he was working with tourists in Liverpool and so came into contact with people from all over the world. I'd like his sputum samples from the time to be tested because he tested negative for the usual bacteria and viral causes... |
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By *ucka39Man
over a year ago
Newcastle |
"This explains why not only myself but a wide majority of people felt like shit from September onwards yet as I recall on a thread back last year people were saying not possible like they know everything duh everyone is different and body functions differently same as development of the immune system to fight against viruses some people have a weak ratio to build up but not everyone has the same lifestyle choices diet and so on some do have a healthy immune system and never know how it will react to something new and the response
its not possible that it was the virus in the current state we know it - hospitals would have noticed the increased admissions, icu cases and deaths
everyone is different sure, but are you suggesting its possible that only people with fantastic immune systems got it early and thats why we didn’t notice because that is just ridiculous
How long does the growth of a typical virus take before it is able to have full growth causing an infectious infection or disease to clog organs within the human body before the bodies immune response is able to act remember everyone is different so a healthy person who is able to miss several years without a common cold has a greater chance but what do I know because I know myself better and don't rely on online chit chat with pros and cons which is based on speculation
and yet here you are speculating that covid 19 was about in the uk in the late summer/ autumn of 2019 which is against all the medical and scientific evidence"
September onwards I know my body very well when I get Ill at all and to be Ill 6 weeks and week later recover then back Ill isn't normal in myself I can miss 4,5 years without the common cold which says that I have a very strong immune system |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"This explains why not only myself but a wide majority of people felt like shit from September onwards yet as I recall on a thread back last year people were saying not possible like they know everything duh everyone is different and body functions differently same as development of the immune system to fight against viruses some people have a weak ratio to build up but not everyone has the same lifestyle choices diet and so on some do have a healthy immune system and never know how it will react to something new and the response
its not possible that it was the virus in the current state we know it - hospitals would have noticed the increased admissions, icu cases and deaths
everyone is different sure, but are you suggesting its possible that only people with fantastic immune systems got it early and thats why we didn’t notice because that is just ridiculous
How long does the growth of a typical virus take before it is able to have full growth causing an infectious infection or disease to clog organs within the human body before the bodies immune response is able to act remember everyone is different so a healthy person who is able to miss several years without a common cold has a greater chance but what do I know because I know myself better and don't rely on online chit chat with pros and cons which is based on speculation
and yet here you are speculating that covid 19 was about in the uk in the late summer/ autumn of 2019 which is against all the medical and scientific evidence
September onwards I know my body very well when I get Ill at all and to be Ill 6 weeks and week later recover then back Ill isn't normal in myself I can miss 4,5 years without the common cold which says that I have a very strong immune system"
yes but to decide its covid without a test - thats speculation , and it goes against the current medical and scientific evidence
i also never really get a cold, i just spent 2 full weeks in bed , week 3 i am up now but still knackered, i still have a cough ...
i also had a covid test and it was negative - other viruses and illnesses exist and like you already admit even the healthiest bodies can react differently to different viruses |
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"Could this mean that the virus didn't come from China ?
But that August organisation, the who have thoroughly investigated and concluded.... It came from china but not a lab.?
If this is true... And as we have seen in all countries without behaviour modification, numbers take off like crazy from first infections. So if this is true, why wasn't there a massive spike of cases (wave) in Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb?
I do recall that prior to the first cases of what we now know to be COVID-19, Nothern Italy bad been plagued by many cases of a 'strange pneumonia' - it is often a case of you find what you are looking for and sometimes what you are not. In common with a few people in this thread Ms Bicpl and I are pretty sure that we both had Covid - with the benefit of hindsight, granted - in Sheffield in December 2019. One of us is an infectious diseases person, so quite confident in what we are saying "
OK, so... Not to how can I say this.. Question your significance... But if you have knowledge of ".... Nothern Italy bad been plagued by many cases of a 'strange pneumonia'" one might reasonably expect the global organisation which we fund, when conducting an investigation into the origins of a pandemic that has turned the world on its head for 16 months so far... That their experts might be aware of such goings on and investigate them and establish its veracity? Or is that unreasonable? |
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"This explains why not only myself but a wide majority of people felt like shit from September onwards yet as I recall on a thread back last year people were saying not possible like they know everything duh everyone is different and body functions differently same as development of the immune system to fight against viruses some people have a weak ratio to build up but not everyone has the same lifestyle choices diet and so on some do have a healthy immune system and never know how it will react to something new and the response "
Trouble is I think people were saying "it's not possible" (I was probably one of them) based on what the scientists of the who and others were reported to be saying at the time..... |
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"This explains why not only myself but a wide majority of people felt like shit from September onwards yet as I recall on a thread back last year people were saying not possible like they know everything duh everyone is different and body functions differently same as development of the immune system to fight against viruses some people have a weak ratio to build up but not everyone has the same lifestyle choices diet and so on some do have a healthy immune system and never know how it will react to something new and the response
Trouble is I think people were saying "it's not possible" (I was probably one of them) based on what the scientists of the who and others were reported to be saying at the time..... "
I said it.
I'm surprised this paper hasn't had more traction, from a cursory glance at the citations. I'm not sure why that is and am hoping that some of the sources I go to discuss it. |
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"This explains why not only myself but a wide majority of people felt like shit from September onwards yet as I recall on a thread back last year people were saying not possible like they know everything duh everyone is different and body functions differently same as development of the immune system to fight against viruses some people have a weak ratio to build up but not everyone has the same lifestyle choices diet and so on some do have a healthy immune system and never know how it will react to something new and the response
Trouble is I think people were saying "it's not possible" (I was probably one of them) based on what the scientists of the who and others were reported to be saying at the time.....
I said it.
I'm surprised this paper hasn't had more traction, from a cursory glance at the citations. I'm not sure why that is and am hoping that some of the sources I go to discuss it."
Well my sources are Bob at the esso garage and the BBC so when you find out more... Do share. |
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By *ucka39Man
over a year ago
Newcastle |
"This explains why not only myself but a wide majority of people felt like shit from September onwards yet as I recall on a thread back last year people were saying not possible like they know everything duh everyone is different and body functions differently same as development of the immune system to fight against viruses some people have a weak ratio to build up but not everyone has the same lifestyle choices diet and so on some do have a healthy immune system and never know how it will react to something new and the response
its not possible that it was the virus in the current state we know it - hospitals would have noticed the increased admissions, icu cases and deaths
everyone is different sure, but are you suggesting its possible that only people with fantastic immune systems got it early and thats why we didn’t notice because that is just ridiculous
How long does the growth of a typical virus take before it is able to have full growth causing an infectious infection or disease to clog organs within the human body before the bodies immune response is able to act remember everyone is different so a healthy person who is able to miss several years without a common cold has a greater chance but what do I know because I know myself better and don't rely on online chit chat with pros and cons which is based on speculation
and yet here you are speculating that covid 19 was about in the uk in the late summer/ autumn of 2019 which is against all the medical and scientific evidence
September onwards I know my body very well when I get Ill at all and to be Ill 6 weeks and week later recover then back Ill isn't normal in myself I can miss 4,5 years without the common cold which says that I have a very strong immune system
yes but to decide its covid without a test - thats speculation , and it goes against the current medical and scientific evidence
i also never really get a cold, i just spent 2 full weeks in bed , week 3 i am up now but still knackered, i still have a cough ...
i also had a covid test and it was negative - other viruses and illnesses exist and like you already admit even the healthiest bodies can react differently to different viruses "
I would classify as unexplained hence no test but never as Ill ever and as I was advised by a nurse in person i wasn't alone with the symptoms I had given September is early for cold symptoms to be present but also last as long as it did and the virus came from the sea brought to land.
Now I'm not basing on the movie contagion which came out few years ago but strangely it is exactly what we have present time now that is unexplained down to location and detail  |
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A coroner agreed last year that, through retrospective testing of lung samples, a UK man died of Covid-19 on 30th January 2020, a good six weeks before the first presumed death on 5th March. The key thing is that the man initially fell ill in December 2019
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-daughter-of-uk-man-who-died-from-covid-19-in-january-attacks-china-for-cover-up-12067060
There have also been samples from December 2019 in France that tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 retrospectively.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52526554 |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
"This explains why not only myself but a wide majority of people felt like shit from September onwards yet as I recall on a thread back last year people were saying not possible like they know everything duh everyone is different and body functions differently same as development of the immune system to fight against viruses some people have a weak ratio to build up but not everyone has the same lifestyle choices diet and so on some do have a healthy immune system and never know how it will react to something new and the response
Trouble is I think people were saying "it's not possible" (I was probably one of them) based on what the scientists of the who and others were reported to be saying at the time.....
I said it.
I'm surprised this paper hasn't had more traction, from a cursory glance at the citations. I'm not sure why that is and am hoping that some of the sources I go to discuss it.
Well my sources are Bob at the esso garage and the BBC so when you find out more... Do share. "
well apparently the movie contagion is a reliable source now so maybe we should watch that tonight |
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"This explains why not only myself but a wide majority of people felt like shit from September onwards yet as I recall on a thread back last year people were saying not possible like they know everything duh everyone is different and body functions differently same as development of the immune system to fight against viruses some people have a weak ratio to build up but not everyone has the same lifestyle choices diet and so on some do have a healthy immune system and never know how it will react to something new and the response
Trouble is I think people were saying "it's not possible" (I was probably one of them) based on what the scientists of the who and others were reported to be saying at the time.....
I said it.
I'm surprised this paper hasn't had more traction, from a cursory glance at the citations. I'm not sure why that is and am hoping that some of the sources I go to discuss it.
Well my sources are Bob at the esso garage and the BBC so when you find out more... Do share.
well apparently the movie contagion is a reliable source now so maybe we should watch that tonight "
Yes I'll add amazon prime to my sources list thank you.
I was discussing Jason and the argonauts with my son earlier. I didn't realise it was a true story. Everydays a school day |
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"This explains why not only myself but a wide majority of people felt like shit from September onwards yet as I recall on a thread back last year people were saying not possible like they know everything duh everyone is different and body functions differently same as development of the immune system to fight against viruses some people have a weak ratio to build up but not everyone has the same lifestyle choices diet and so on some do have a healthy immune system and never know how it will react to something new and the response
Trouble is I think people were saying "it's not possible" (I was probably one of them) based on what the scientists of the who and others were reported to be saying at the time.....
I said it.
I'm surprised this paper hasn't had more traction, from a cursory glance at the citations. I'm not sure why that is and am hoping that some of the sources I go to discuss it.
Well my sources are Bob at the esso garage and the BBC so when you find out more... Do share. "
Lol. I looked at the paper on Google scholar and clicked through to the citations. |
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By *ucka39Man
over a year ago
Newcastle |
"This explains why not only myself but a wide majority of people felt like shit from September onwards yet as I recall on a thread back last year people were saying not possible like they know everything duh everyone is different and body functions differently same as development of the immune system to fight against viruses some people have a weak ratio to build up but not everyone has the same lifestyle choices diet and so on some do have a healthy immune system and never know how it will react to something new and the response
Trouble is I think people were saying "it's not possible" (I was probably one of them) based on what the scientists of the who and others were reported to be saying at the time.....
I said it.
I'm surprised this paper hasn't had more traction, from a cursory glance at the citations. I'm not sure why that is and am hoping that some of the sources I go to discuss it.
Well my sources are Bob at the esso garage and the BBC so when you find out more... Do share.
well apparently the movie contagion is a reliable source now so maybe we should watch that tonight "
Well I wouldn't say as much as reliable because I don't think it ended with them having a vaccine I think I just spoiled your lovely ending  and I wasn't sure whether this we was an invitation  |
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By *ucka39Man
over a year ago
Newcastle |
As people's opinions are so high and don't believe it's possible for a human being to have a strangely weird immune system specific to not getting Ill from the virus you only need to look at the younger generation and why either those at a higher age group hence weak immune system were more at risk has the movie started yet I take my information from my forefathers not Amazon Google Facebook Instagram Twitter Pinterest or fab |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
"As people's opinions are so high and don't believe it's possible for a human being to have a strangely weird immune system specific to not getting Ill from the virus you only need to look at the younger generation and why either those at a higher age group hence weak immune system were more at risk has the movie started yet I take my information from my forefathers not Amazon Google Facebook Instagram Twitter Pinterest or fab "
i actually dont think anyone is disagreeing that some immune systems are more able to fight it , that is pretty clear by the fact not everyone gets hospitalised and some people are actually even asymptomatic
my point was for it to have been around when you say , with no evidence of it impacting hospitals or deaths , pretty much everyone catching it would need to have this really good immune system which with the laws of probability is just totally unrealistic , also you don’t really have any evidence, just a hunch because you were ill
looking at the rate it spread and hospitalisations and deaths rose after it was clear it covid reached the uk , we would have been very aware of the virus much much sooner if it had actually been around the uk in its current form as early as you say - those types of number of hospitalisation, icu requirements and deaths don’t just go unnoticed globally for 6 months and then appear from nowhere overnight for the same virus - at the very least there has to have been some dramatic mutation and like others have said coronaviruses aren’t actually new - covid 19 was just a discovery of new version of it and what you had came significantly before that outbreak and discovery
its just much more likely that you had another unnamed nasty bug |
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I've had suspicions that it was here long before they say it was .
I returned from a trip to Mexico begining of September.
I took ill on my flight home Saturday into Sunday .
Still was very ill on the Tuesday so saw my gp who thought I had a chest infection & prescribed antibiotics which didn't help and I was hospitalised on the Friday and diagnosed with pneumonia.
I've had my suspicions it might now have been covid .
it took me 4/5 Months to finally feel well. |
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By *ucka39Man
over a year ago
Newcastle |
"As people's opinions are so high and don't believe it's possible for a human being to have a strangely weird immune system specific to not getting Ill from the virus you only need to look at the younger generation and why either those at a higher age group hence weak immune system were more at risk has the movie started yet I take my information from my forefathers not Amazon Google Facebook Instagram Twitter Pinterest or fab
i actually dont think anyone is disagreeing that some immune systems are more able to fight it , that is pretty clear by the fact not everyone gets hospitalised and some people are actually even asymptomatic
my point was for it to have been around when you say , with no evidence of it impacting hospitals or deaths , pretty much everyone catching it would need to have this really good immune system which with the laws of probability is just totally unrealistic , also you don’t really have any evidence, just a hunch because you were ill
looking at the rate it spread and hospitalisations and deaths rose after it was clear it covid reached the uk , we would have been very aware of the virus much much sooner if it had actually been around the uk in its current form as early as you say - those types of number of hospitalisation, icu requirements and deaths don’t just go unnoticed globally for 6 months and then appear from nowhere overnight for the same virus - at the very least there has to have been some dramatic mutation and like others have said coronaviruses aren’t actually new - covid 19 was just a discovery of new version of it and what you had came significantly before that outbreak and discovery
its just much more likely that you had another unnamed nasty bug "
Now a virus mutates which I'm sure everyone agrees on, so what if at the time it wasn't fully grown before it became a danger to human life causing an infectious disease |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"They didn't know, just said it was viral"
yeah but that doesn’t mean covid
ive just been told the exact same, ill for 3 weeks now , “its viral, it can take a while to recover from anything viral” says the doctor , and i have confirmation from negative test that i didn’t have covid
other viruses existed before covid and will still exist after |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"My mother came back from a cruise in October 2018, she thought she had pneumonia, hospitals said it wasn't, scared lung tissue and really ill for 6 months took 12 months to recover.
Chinese staff on the cruise.
What did the docs say it was. If they said it was covid 19 then she would be the world's first recorded case."
No they didn't know what it was, just said it was viral. But when we knew about Covid 12months later it was a scary conversation we had, as her symptoms were so similar. |
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By *ucka39Man
over a year ago
Newcastle |
Basically it's like this because China said and later reports it people believed but what is the precise time of day night week month the infection started is an answer you'll never get because it was reported late to notify rest of the countries as they assumed it was their own doing and thought without notifying anyone would have it under control but unaware things were already happening in other countries... |
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"It's possible that it was around in 2019, one scientist has claimed that his research suggests the original virus has been altered to be more "effective".... Maybe the Chinese were experimenting with it as a possible weapon, and it escaped by accident?"
Weaponising viruses would be batshit crazy (excuse the pun). You could inoculate your own population against the disease but once in the wild you have no control over what mutations might occur. It would be like spinning round in a narrow street blindfolded with a grenade then throwing it out and hoping it travels and doesn't bounce off a wall and land back at your feet! |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"My mother came back from a cruise in October 2018, she thought she had pneumonia, hospitals said it wasn't, scared lung tissue and really ill for 6 months took 12 months to recover.
Chinese staff on the cruise.
What did the docs say it was. If they said it was covid 19 then she would be the world's first recorded case.
No they didn't know what it was, just said it was viral. But when we knew about Covid 12months later it was a scary conversation we had, as her symptoms were so similar. "
There are lots of virus's that are similar. |
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"My mother came back from a cruise in October 2018, she thought she had pneumonia, hospitals said it wasn't, scared lung tissue and really ill for 6 months took 12 months to recover.
Chinese staff on the cruise. "
I know people who have suffered serious long term illness from unidentified infections.. doesn’t mean Covid was circulating back in 1998... there are many many other pathogens quietly. circulating in the wild |
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My dad died eight years ago had all the symptoms of COVID-19 obviously he didn’t have it work it out for yourselves if it had been in this country 3/4 months earlier then reported The hospitals would have been filling up and that did not happen |
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By *amish SMan
over a year ago
Eastleigh |
"None of you had COVID before 23Jan last year, if you did you would be the index case A, and we know that not to be the case
There is a large possibility of false positives from the tests the study used and I cannot find anything to say further testing has confirmed the initial findings. It's not beyond possible for the virus to be circulating earlier but if it was then it could be expected that what we saw happen in northern Italy would have happened earlier... unless the variant at that stage was not as infectious as that in Dec2019. "
To say none had it prior to that date is very wrong. That date is 'of those tested' the statement can only be correct if the whole population was tested.
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By *ucka39Man
over a year ago
Newcastle |
"None of you had COVID before 23Jan last year, if you did you would be the index case A, and we know that not to be the case
There is a large possibility of false positives from the tests the study used and I cannot find anything to say further testing has confirmed the initial findings. It's not beyond possible for the virus to be circulating earlier but if it was then it could be expected that what we saw happen in northern Italy would have happened earlier... unless the variant at that stage was not as infectious as that in Dec2019.
To say none had it prior to that date is very wrong. That date is 'of those tested' the statement can only be correct if the whole population was tested.
"
Plus a virus could be dormant weak enough to make others unwell before creating havoc so technically no body can say not possible because people were unwell before the virus became active enough in growth to cause damage to human life |
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"A coroner agreed last year that, through retrospective testing of lung samples, a UK man died of Covid-19 on 30th January 2020, a good six weeks before the first presumed death on 5th March. The key thing is that the man initially fell ill in December 2019
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-daughter-of-uk-man-who-died-from-covid-19-in-january-attacks-china-for-cover-up-12067060
There have also been samples from December 2019 in France that tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 retrospectively.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52526554"
I can't find it now but in Italy ( Milan) they traced some cases that originated back on November 2019. I was staying close to where the group found to have had it were. Used the same metro station etc... I think If the retrospectively tested many of the " pneumonia " deaths around that time they may find more cases.
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"Italian researchers who took blood samples from across Italy in 2019 have found antibodies to covid SARS 2 as far back as September 2019. This means the virus was likely there as far back as August 2019 with particularly high levels found in the Lombardy region
Out of 900 samples they found that over 100 tested positive for antibodies"
How surprisng seeing as Lombardy is an area that China has been involved in with the Belt and Road Initiative
They basically moved in chinese sweat shops to make clothes ect so they could put the "Made in Italy" label on it |
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"Could this mean that the virus didn't come from China ?
But that August organisation, the who have thoroughly investigated and concluded.... It came from china but not a lab.?
If this is true... And as we have seen in all countries without behaviour modification, numbers take off like crazy from first infections. So if this is true, why wasn't there a massive spike of cases (wave) in Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb?
I do recall that prior to the first cases of what we now know to be COVID-19, Nothern Italy bad been plagued by many cases of a 'strange pneumonia' - it is often a case of you find what you are looking for and sometimes what you are not. In common with a few people in this thread Ms Bicpl and I are pretty sure that we both had Covid - with the benefit of hindsight, granted - in Sheffield in December 2019. One of us is an infectious diseases person, so quite confident in what we are saying
OK, so... Not to how can I say this.. Question your significance... But if you have knowledge of ".... Nothern Italy bad been plagued by many cases of a 'strange pneumonia'" one might reasonably expect the global organisation which we fund, when conducting an investigation into the origins of a pandemic that has turned the world on its head for 16 months so far... That their experts might be aware of such goings on and investigate them and establish its veracity? Or is that unreasonable? "
You make a fair point...but the WHO has not exactly covered itself in glory through this episode! The 'strange pneumonia' is not my speculation, but was reported in the press at the time - and of course, no-one made the SARS-COV-2 connection...because there was no awareness of the new virus.
I think it will take several years to unpick the origin of the virus and there will inevitably be a lot of finger-pointing...which is unfortunate as what is really needed is that we all get past this and get our lives back
Mr BiCpl |
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"None of you had COVID before 23Jan last year, if you did you would be the index case A, and we know that not to be the case
There is a large possibility of false positives from the tests the study used and I cannot find anything to say further testing has confirmed the initial findings. It's not beyond possible for the virus to be circulating earlier but if it was then it could be expected that what we saw happen in northern Italy would have happened earlier... unless the variant at that stage was not as infectious as that in Dec2019.
To say none had it prior to that date is very wrong. That date is 'of those tested' the statement can only be correct if the whole population was tested.
Plus a virus could be dormant weak enough to make others unwell before creating havoc so technically no body can say not possible because people were unwell before the virus became active enough in growth to cause damage to human life"
What is possible, is that the virus mutated from essentially a low-transmission, low-infectivity, low-mortality item into something a lot more dangerous - so that's one THEORY (capitalising that just to make it clear I'm not being definitive) that could explain a virus circulating but not doing much and crucially, therefore, not coming to the attention of the authorities... |
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"None of you had COVID before 23Jan last year, if you did you would be the index case A, and we know that not to be the case
There is a large possibility of false positives from the tests the study used and I cannot find anything to say further testing has confirmed the initial findings. It's not beyond possible for the virus to be circulating earlier but if it was then it could be expected that what we saw happen in northern Italy would have happened earlier... unless the variant at that stage was not as infectious as that in Dec2019.
To say none had it prior to that date is very wrong. That date is 'of those tested' the statement can only be correct if the whole population was tested.
Plus a virus could be dormant weak enough to make others unwell before creating havoc so technically no body can say not possible because people were unwell before the virus became active enough in growth to cause damage to human life
What is possible, is that the virus mutated from essentially a low-transmission, low-infectivity, low-mortality item into something a lot more dangerous - so that's one THEORY (capitalising that just to make it clear I'm not being definitive) that could explain a virus circulating but not doing much and crucially, therefore, not coming to the attention of the authorities..."
^^^What he said  |
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By *69BANMan
over a year ago
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"None of you had COVID before 23Jan last year, if you did you would be the index case A, and we know that not to be the case
There is a large possibility of false positives from the tests the study used and I cannot find anything to say further testing has confirmed the initial findings. It's not beyond possible for the virus to be circulating earlier but if it was then it could be expected that what we saw happen in northern Italy would have happened earlier... unless the variant at that stage was not as infectious as that in Dec2019.
To say none had it prior to that date is very wrong. That date is 'of those tested' the statement can only be correct if the whole population was tested.
Plus a virus could be dormant weak enough to make others unwell before creating havoc so technically no body can say not possible because people were unwell before the virus became active enough in growth to cause damage to human life
What is possible, is that the virus mutated from essentially a low-transmission, low-infectivity, low-mortality item into something a lot more dangerous - so that's one THEORY (capitalising that just to make it clear I'm not being definitive) that could explain a virus circulating but not doing much and crucially, therefore, not coming to the attention of the authorities..."
That is not possible for this virus. Our best understanding is it was from zoonotic transmission, so once it makes the jump from animals to humans then it's going to be like MERS or SARS, or be like this one. It won't make the jump to humans if it's low transmission and low infectivity because of those two reasons.
And to the other comment, yes viruses can show latency but Coronaviruses do not show latency (along other respiratory viruses). You're confusing this with HSV, HIV, etc. |
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We have to rely on the research evidence, for whatever good it may do. The full genome sequence was published by China c. 8th January 2020. I think we may as well give up expecting full transparency and honesty from the Chinese government in the near future.
The Italian data seems somewhat limited, with more recent statistical analysis of the likely starting points in Italy and China, seeming to disagree with Italy in 2019 but being strongly likely for China then. The virus only exists if it's passed between animals or people via the methods of infection that we know about. It's not that plausible that a virus with low infectivity as well as not really causing illness mutated in 2 different places at around the same time, whilst it just existed in a handful of peoples' bodies. It seems more likely that the mutation occurred in 1 place if anywhere, of a very low prevalence virus, that was then transported to others. In that scenario, 1 place would see the hospital cases etc first, before the others. This is similar to Wuhan/China, then Italy and other countries.
As Swing noted, the genetic heritage of Sars-Cov-2 appears to show a novel virus, likely from 2019. The data from multiple countries points to China to 2019 and other countries in 2020, that were each country's patient zero points of all of the subsequent chains of infection onwards. When we have stronger evidence, then it would be right to reassess but much other than this seems not to have such strength.
Overall, we must stay alert to the risks of future deadly viruses crossing from animals to humans and do as much as possible to prevent them, as well as staying prepared for when it next happens. We should look back to learn, where we can use that to guide us in the future. |
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