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Indian nightmare scenario
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By *ubal1 OP Man
over a year ago
Newry Down |
I have long suspected that the rate of viral infection on the Indian subcontinent is much worse than was previously being reported.
With a population approaching 1.5 billion, packed into a relatively small landmass the Indian authorities will probably prohibit export of vaccines in order to tackle their domestic problems, which are immense.
Lockdowns and social distancing would be almost impossible in India; until such time as India's population is vaccinated international travel needs to be banned, immediately.
The world cannot permit mutations that will arise in India to be exported to other jurisdictions.
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"I have long suspected that the rate of viral infection on the Indian subcontinent is much worse than was previously being reported.
With a population approaching 1.5 billion, packed into a relatively small landmass the Indian authorities will probably prohibit export of vaccines in order to tackle their domestic problems, which are immense.
Lockdowns and social distancing would be almost impossible in India; until such time as India's population is vaccinated international travel needs to be banned, immediately.
The world cannot permit mutations that will arise in India to be exported to other jurisdictions.
"
Do you mean like the Kent variant that has caused so many problems around the world. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"I have long suspected that the rate of viral infection on the Indian subcontinent is much worse than was previously being reported.
With a population approaching 1.5 billion, packed into a relatively small landmass the Indian authorities will probably prohibit export of vaccines in order to tackle their domestic problems, which are immense.
Lockdowns and social distancing would be almost impossible in India; until such time as India's population is vaccinated international travel needs to be banned, immediately.
The world cannot permit mutations that will arise in India to be exported to other jurisdictions.
Do you mean like the Kent variant that has caused so many problems around the world."
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"I have long suspected that the rate of viral infection on the Indian subcontinent is much worse than was previously being reported.
With a population approaching 1.5 billion, packed into a relatively small landmass the Indian authorities will probably prohibit export of vaccines in order to tackle their domestic problems, which are immense.
Lockdowns and social distancing would be almost impossible in India; until such time as India's population is vaccinated international travel needs to be banned, immediately.
The world cannot permit mutations that will arise in India to be exported to other jurisdictions.
Do you mean like the Kent variant that has caused so many problems around the world."
Caused by high infection rates in Kent. So yes. Exactly like that. And.... Could it be possible that we can learn from our mistakes and be better.? |
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I think the notion of retricting or ideally ceasing any travel in or out of areas... Be they nations, regions, counties to manage the spread of this infection is a crucial part of ongoing management of the pandemic, as has been said by many wiser heads than mine already... Nobodies safe until we are all safe (unless you live on an island surrounded by water and can easily restrict travel). |
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"I think the notion of retricting or ideally ceasing any travel in or out of areas... Be they nations, regions, counties to manage the spread of this infection is a crucial part of ongoing management of the pandemic, as has been said by many wiser heads than mine already... Nobodies safe until we are all safe (unless you live on an island surrounded by water and can easily restrict travel). "
*restricting |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"I think the notion of retricting or ideally ceasing any travel in or out of areas... Be they nations, regions, counties to manage the spread of this infection is a crucial part of ongoing management of the pandemic, as has been said by many wiser heads than mine already... Nobodies safe until we are all safe (unless you live on an island surrounded by water and can easily restrict travel). "
International travel could possibly be restricted. Local county/ town etc travel can't be.
Too many industries will go bust. |
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By *ubal1 OP Man
over a year ago
Newry Down |
The mutational potential of India and densely populated parts of Africa is almost limitless.
Vaccination rollout within the UK has been a major success, but could potentially be undone and very rapidly by an exotic mutation from abroad.
I suspect the degree of immunity from mutations that UK vaccines currently provide is not 100%; a cascade is possible.
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"I think the notion of retricting or ideally ceasing any travel in or out of areas... Be they nations, regions, counties to manage the spread of this infection is a crucial part of ongoing management of the pandemic, as has been said by many wiser heads than mine already... Nobodies safe until we are all safe (unless you live on an island surrounded by water and can easily restrict travel).
International travel could possibly be restricted. Local county/ town etc travel can't be.
Too many industries will go bust. "
Regions / counties of larger countries... Not the UK.. Although... Isolating / quarantining is doing / should be doing exactly that. Its just being proactive and crustal clear about it.
Now admittedly in the UK right now.. (Although vaccines have slowed right down..) Our numbers are encouraging... Pretty much most other places near us are pretty fucked and heading in the wrong direction. Unless we manage things better than the last 16 months we are a new variant and a few weeeks of slow decision making away from a repeat. |
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"The mutational potential of India and densely populated parts of Africa is almost limitless.
Vaccination rollout within the UK has been a major success, but could potentially be undone and very rapidly by an exotic mutation from abroad.
I suspect the degree of immunity from mutations that UK vaccines currently provide is not 100%; a cascade is possible.
"
Our home grown kent one could easily mutate again it only takes one roll of the dice when it's allowed to replicate and boom off we go again, social distancing, frequent hand washing, face coverings are the strongest weapons we have against this virus, we need to prevent transmission |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"I think the notion of retricting or ideally ceasing any travel in or out of areas... Be they nations, regions, counties to manage the spread of this infection is a crucial part of ongoing management of the pandemic, as has been said by many wiser heads than mine already... Nobodies safe until we are all safe (unless you live on an island surrounded by water and can easily restrict travel). "
i agree , and didn’t people have plenty to say about them not closing the border fast enough to contain the virus in china in the first place, really in that sense how are any new and as yet unstudied variants any different |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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I was listening to R4 "From our own Correspondent" last Sat morning and it was reported that not too long ago there was a wide spread belief in India that somehow Indians were naturally immune from Coronavirus! Presumably some idiot politicians idea. But it's hard to condem people who believe such rubbish... Afterall some seemingly intelligent people in UK voted for Brexit after believing politicians lies. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"I think the notion of retricting or ideally ceasing any travel in or out of areas... Be they nations, regions, counties to manage the spread of this infection is a crucial part of ongoing management of the pandemic, as has been said by many wiser heads than mine already... Nobodies safe until we are all safe (unless you live on an island surrounded by water and can easily restrict travel).
International travel could possibly be restricted. Local county/ town etc travel can't be.
Too many industries will go bust.
Regions / counties of larger countries... Not the UK.. Although... Isolating / quarantining is doing / should be doing exactly that. Its just being proactive and crustal clear about it.
Now admittedly in the UK right now.. (Although vaccines have slowed right down..) Our numbers are encouraging... Pretty much most other places near us are pretty fucked and heading in the wrong direction. Unless we manage things better than the last 16 months we are a new variant and a few weeeks of slow decision making away from a repeat. "
I wouldn't say vaccines have slowed down at all bar a small dip at the start of April that lasted a few days. For some reason people seem to think it continued / and is relevant now? This seems to be a common bit of misinformation atm.
We have been doing almost half a million 2nd jabs a day steadily for a while and about 150 thousand 1st jabs a day as well.
All that's happened is we have flipped the numbers around for 1st and 2nd jabs.
Take a look at the figures on the goverments trackers
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/vaccinations
KJ
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By *irldnCouple
over a year ago
Brighton |
One of the cornerstones of the whole Brexit Leave campaign was about “taking back control of our borders”
Well this absolute shambles of a Govt certainly failed on that. The number of people who have entered the UK, untested, unquarantined since March 2020 runs into the millions. 10,000 a day were arriving at Heathrow alone EVERY SINGLE DAY with no checks.
Look at the delay in adding India to the Red List. It quite simply beggars belief (and yet there will still be people saying “Boris [et al] doing a good job” - no they haven’t!
The only thing they have done well (and they have done this VERY well) is find ways to monetise the pandemic to enrich themselves, their cronies and Tory party donors. With YOUR money.
Bunch of criminals.
Rant over. Need a cuppa! |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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And yet we still have travel ongoing people leaving and coming into the country, my line of work has become pandemic focused and the amount of cases exposed on a flight is beyond belief.
I'm not a crazy conspiracy theorist, but this pandemic isn't just what we have all been made to believe. |
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"One of the cornerstones of the whole Brexit Leave campaign was about “taking back control of our borders”
Well this absolute shambles of a Govt certainly failed on that. The number of people who have entered the UK, untested, unquarantined since March 2020 runs into the millions. 10,000 a day were arriving at Heathrow alone EVERY SINGLE DAY with no checks.
Look at the delay in adding India to the Red List. It quite simply beggars belief (and yet there will still be people saying “Boris [et al] doing a good job” - no they haven’t!
The only thing they have done well (and they have done this VERY well) is find ways to monetise the pandemic to enrich themselves, their cronies and Tory party donors. With YOUR money.
Bunch of criminals.
Rant over. Need a cuppa!"
That's the bit I find so perplexing. I mean why haven't the press gone after the daily arrivals... At all?
We get wall to wall coverage of what pep guardiola eats for breakfast and how the police raised a student party of 30 in Nottingham.... Yet every day for 16 months we've had unchecked arrivals in the 10s of thousands at airports and every week 20k plus hauliers crossing the Channel. And yet not even a bye line in the press. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"I was listening to R4 "From our own Correspondent" last Sat morning and it was reported that not too long ago there was a wide spread belief in India that somehow Indians were naturally immune from Coronavirus! Presumably some idiot politicians idea. But it's hard to condem people who believe such rubbish... Afterall some seemingly intelligent people in UK voted for Brexit after believing politicians lies. "
Radio 4,the beacon of truth.(my arse). |
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"I was listening to R4 "From our own Correspondent" last Sat morning and it was reported that not too long ago there was a wide spread belief in India that somehow Indians were naturally immune from Coronavirus! Presumably some idiot politicians idea. But it's hard to condem people who believe such rubbish... Afterall some seemingly intelligent people in UK voted for Brexit after believing politicians lies. "
Presumably they also used the crutch that all media and politicians like to use now as well... "The science tells us" ... And that the scientists are only too happy to have their 15 minutes in the twittersphere. |
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"I was listening to R4 "From our own Correspondent" last Sat morning and it was reported that not too long ago there was a wide spread belief in India that somehow Indians were naturally immune from Coronavirus! Presumably some idiot politicians idea. But it's hard to condem people who believe such rubbish... Afterall some seemingly intelligent people in UK voted for Brexit after believing politicians lies.
Presumably they also used the crutch that all media and politicians like to use now as well... "The science tells us" ... And that the scientists are only too happy to have their 15 minutes in the twittersphere."
There was a hypothesis early on that some people might have immunity due to infection with related viruses. But any effect, if it exists, is clearly minimal. |
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"I was listening to R4 "From our own Correspondent" last Sat morning and it was reported that not too long ago there was a wide spread belief in India that somehow Indians were naturally immune from Coronavirus! Presumably some idiot politicians idea. But it's hard to condem people who believe such rubbish... Afterall some seemingly intelligent people in UK voted for Brexit after believing politicians lies.
Presumably they also used the crutch that all media and politicians like to use now as well... "The science tells us" ... And that the scientists are only too happy to have their 15 minutes in the twittersphere.
There was a hypothesis early on that some people might have immunity due to infection with related viruses. But any effect, if it exists, is clearly minimal."
Esteeemed epidemiologists, virologist, and other ists...
So... The only was we've had to manage this infection has been to isolate and not catch or spread it. And yet our immune system develops by exposure to infections and responding and remembering...
It seems there's a balance to be had between..."woahhh there cowboy, avoid that ebola, Spanish flu, covid, plague.... Like the... Well plague... But go and lick eachother for Chickenpox and colds and so on..." |
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"I was listening to R4 "From our own Correspondent" last Sat morning and it was reported that not too long ago there was a wide spread belief in India that somehow Indians were naturally immune from Coronavirus! Presumably some idiot politicians idea. But it's hard to condem people who believe such rubbish... Afterall some seemingly intelligent people in UK voted for Brexit after believing politicians lies.
Presumably they also used the crutch that all media and politicians like to use now as well... "The science tells us" ... And that the scientists are only too happy to have their 15 minutes in the twittersphere.
There was a hypothesis early on that some people might have immunity due to infection with related viruses. But any effect, if it exists, is clearly minimal.
Esteeemed epidemiologists, virologist, and other ists...
So... The only was we've had to manage this infection has been to isolate and not catch or spread it. And yet our immune system develops by exposure to infections and responding and remembering...
It seems there's a balance to be had between..."woahhh there cowboy, avoid that ebola, Spanish flu, covid, plague.... Like the... Well plague... But go and lick eachother for Chickenpox and colds and so on...""
Sure.
Back in the day we had no choice. Now we have more choices. Those choices aren't always easy - diseases spread from natural human behaviour.
Some immunity is good, some is better off gained early (measles or chicken pox parties are or were things).
Some... The risks are incredibly high, too high.
I think we forget how fortunate we are, given vaccines. |
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