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Where would you like the numbers to be to start redusing restrictions
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I'd want stricter safety measures in schools, funded by the government. I'd want better enforcement of isolation and payment to do so in more cases. I'd want hotel quarantine broader and better organised. I'd want test and trace to be functional.
Hospitalised patients half of April peak or less. Cases at or under 100/100k, with a binding step down (or up) at certain case rates. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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I think once the numbers are at a level where we are able to operate the NHS to a near normal level and when the first 9 groups have had their first jab and those in the first 4 groups their second we should be seriously lifting as many restrictions as possible. |
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It's got to be zero on all counts.
Plus the you need the rest of the world to catch up.Plus there are foreign and British diplomats and CEO's flitting in and out of the country in private jets on the sly, no hotel quarantine there, not to mention all the boat people coming in from the channel.
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"It's got to be zero on all counts.
Plus the you need the rest of the world to catch up.Plus there are foreign and British diplomats and CEO's flitting in and out of the country in private jets on the sly, no hotel quarantine there, not to mention all the boat people coming in from the channel.
"
This will be impossible to achieve, counting there are too many people in the U.K. borders are still open anyway and people are still meeting for work, etc
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By *atEvolutionCouple
over a year ago
atlantisEVOLUTION Swingers Club. Stoke |
"Posertive tests down to 1000 per day and an R number under 0.5. Or will that take to long to get to.
If Boris wants to do it buy the numbers what do you think the numbers should be.
"
I would like 75% of the Adult population to have had a vaccination. |
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"It's got to be zero on all counts.
Plus the you need the rest of the world to catch up.Plus there are foreign and British diplomats and CEO's flitting in and out of the country in private jets on the sly, no hotel quarantine there, not to mention all the boat people coming in from the channel.
"
Yes it would be interesting to know how many flights and boat journeys are taking place and how many are on them that are avoiding any form of restriction. The elite sports are an example. The Rita ora brigade another. |
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"Posertive tests down to 1000 per day and an R number under 0.5. Or will that take to long to get to.
If Boris wants to do it buy the numbers what do you think the numbers should be.
"
Lock down or... As it was labelled lock down is pretty much over already. I think the numbers are an irrelevance to the population. Many of whom are doing their own thing. Albeit with modified behaviour. Govt can make any policy it wants but without the population Adopting them its not relevant. I imagine in another months time once the spring is here people will just be going cautiously about their business whatever govt say. The numbers are still incredibly high... My biggest concern is high community infection rates mean there is opportunity for mutation and that with a small shift in R number things can get out of control again very very quickly. |
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"Posertive tests down to 1000 per day and an R number under 0.5. Or will that take to long to get to.
If Boris wants to do it buy the numbers what do you think the numbers should be.
Lock down or... As it was labelled lock down is pretty much over already. I think the numbers are an irrelevance to the population. Many of whom are doing their own thing. Albeit with modified behaviour. Govt can make any policy it wants but without the population Adopting them its not relevant. I imagine in another months time once the spring is here people will just be going cautiously about their business whatever govt say. The numbers are still incredibly high... My biggest concern is high community infection rates mean there is opportunity for mutation and that with a small shift in R number things can get out of control again very very quickly. "
And it dose seem to be have like a fire as in it spreads very quickly but can take so long to get it back under control. |
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"It will never be zero as it will keep mutating, it is here to stay but hopefully at a manageable level"
You're assuming that the mutations will prevent the vaccine from working. The vaccine is still very effective against the mutations so far.
If the vaccine can keep the R Number below 1 the virus will eventually die out. The more who have the vaccine and the quicker they get it, the nearer to zero we will get. |
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"1000 is not possible.
With ANY test you have a false positve rate.. Even the PCR one is at a conservative estimate 0.3 %.. So test 700k a day and you have 2100 false results. "
Why do the false positive rates not show up in Australia or New Zealand, if that kind of false positive rate is baked in? |
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"It will never be zero as it will keep mutating, it is here to stay but hopefully at a manageable level
You're assuming that the mutations will prevent the vaccine from working. The vaccine is still very effective against the mutations so far.
If the vaccine can keep the R Number below 1 the virus will eventually die out. The more who have the vaccine and the quicker they get it, the nearer to zero we will get."
If we can get R to 0.5 and hold it we will be wining to me 1 is like a draw it's not going any where but 1.2 and you are lossing the battle and are looking at lockdown
Or is this just to simple to a complex problem. |
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"It will never be zero as it will keep mutating, it is here to stay but hopefully at a manageable level
You're assuming that the mutations will prevent the vaccine from working. The vaccine is still very effective against the mutations so far.
If the vaccine can keep the R Number below 1 the virus will eventually die out. The more who have the vaccine and the quicker they get it, the nearer to zero we will get.
If we can get R to 0.5 and hold it we will be wining to me 1 is like a draw it's not going any where but 1.2 and you are lossing the battle and are looking at lockdown
Or is this just to simple to a complex problem."
That's essentially it. 1 is maintaining transmission, less will quell outbreaks |
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"1000 is not possible.
With ANY test you have a false positve rate.. Even the PCR one is at a conservative estimate 0.3 %.. So test 700k a day and you have 2100 false results.
Why do the false positive rates not show up in Australia or New Zealand, if that kind of false positive rate is baked in?"
On the other hemisphere the polarity switches so false positives would be false negatives? Water goes the wrong way down the plug hole down there too. |
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"1000 is not possible.
With ANY test you have a false positve rate.. Even the PCR one is at a conservative estimate 0.3 %.. So test 700k a day and you have 2100 false results.
Why do the false positive rates not show up in Australia or New Zealand, if that kind of false positive rate is baked in?
On the other hemisphere the polarity switches so false positives would be false negatives? Water goes the wrong way down the plug hole down there too. "
 |
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"1000 is not possible.
With ANY test you have a false positve rate.. Even the PCR one is at a conservative estimate 0.3 %.. So test 700k a day and you have 2100 false results.
Why do the false positive rates not show up in Australia or New Zealand, if that kind of false positive rate is baked in?
On the other hemisphere the polarity switches so false positives would be false negatives? Water goes the wrong way down the plug hole down there too.
"
Got to love that and it not even the same day down there. As night is day as up hear day is night  |
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"1000 is not possible.
With ANY test you have a false positve rate.. Even the PCR one is at a conservative estimate 0.3 %.. So test 700k a day and you have 2100 false results.
Why do the false positive rates not show up in Australia or New Zealand, if that kind of false positive rate is baked in?
On the other hemisphere the polarity switches so false positives would be false negatives? Water goes the wrong way down the plug hole down there too.
Got to love that and it not even the same day down there. As night is day as up hear day is night "
Might be up to 13 hours ahead (New Zealand, this time of year), but people are people and PCR tests are PCR tests |
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"Posertive tests down to 1000 per day and an R number under 0.5. Or will that take to long to get to.
If Boris wants to do it buy the numbers what do you think the numbers should be.
"
I think that is about right. By then most vulnerable groups will have received their first vaccine too. |
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"Posertive tests down to 1000 per day and an R number under 0.5. Or will that take to long to get to.
If Boris wants to do it buy the numbers what do you think the numbers should be.
I think that is about right. By then most vulnerable groups will have received their first vaccine too."
Can only thank you for that... |
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"1000 is not possible.
With ANY test you have a false positve rate.. Even the PCR one is at a conservative estimate 0.3 %.. So test 700k a day and you have 2100 false results.
Why do the false positive rates not show up in Australia or New Zealand, if that kind of false positive rate is baked in?"
They are not hyper testing 750K a day.. |
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"I'm really not sure why folk that cannot spell are offering up medical or expert opinion on this matter. "
So because people aren’t perfect at spelling they’re not allowed to have a conversation about what they think is going to happen? You do know they’re not actually advising the government don’t you? |
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By *odgerMan
over a year ago
Coventry(ish)London |
"I'm really not sure why folk that cannot spell are offering up medical or expert opinion on this matter.
So because people aren’t perfect at spelling they’re not allowed to have a conversation about what they think is going to happen? You do know they’re not actually advising the government don’t you? "
Looks like England will be opening schools up this has to be to much to soon
Of course they're allowed to have a conversation. I'm merely wondering what qualifications the poster has to back up this particular view. |
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By *ikeC81Man
over a year ago
harrow |
Personally keep everything locked down to Easter (current rules) - I don’t want that at all but if it allows the virus to reduce as much as possible then so be it
I would say primary schools back first then secondary schools a couple of weeks later
In the mean time get 50% of population first jab with the first 4 bands on 2nd jab
Reasonable I think |
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By *odgerMan
over a year ago
Coventry(ish)London |
"Personally keep everything locked down to Easter (current rules) - I don’t want that at all but if it allows the virus to reduce as much as possible then so be it
I would say primary schools back first then secondary schools a couple of weeks later
In the mean time get 50% of population first jab with the first 4 bands on 2nd jab
Reasonable I think "
Qualifications Mike? |
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"Personally keep everything locked down to Easter (current rules) - I don’t want that at all but if it allows the virus to reduce as much as possible then so be it
I would say primary schools back first then secondary schools a couple of weeks later
In the mean time get 50% of population first jab with the first 4 bands on 2nd jab
Reasonable I think "
And you think 1000 kids in one school there is no chance of increased transmission it would only take 1 and then what
Got to be less chance of transmission in small shops and gyms. I get the kids don't get so I'll but the all go home to parents ho might? No |
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"I wonder how many people have seen inside a school in the last 6 months or understand how they are set up in covid times? "
I haven't been in a school in over six years (or more), but I've kept an eye on things like the Indie Sage broadcasts, who discuss schools regularly.
An easy fix would be making masks mandatory in classrooms |
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"I wonder how many people have seen inside a school in the last 6 months or understand how they are set up in covid times? "
No I haven't but I live near 3 and lots go through the gate together and then mix in a crowded play ground befor going in and with junior schools the mums still get round for a chat.
As for the older ones well boys will be boys right was like when I was at school groups together boys and girls kissing then the mask gose on as the go in.
But like supermarkets I but my mask on in the car but lots wait till the car last minute don't know why? |
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Most schools have been operating at between 30 and 50% occupation since this lockdown started. There is nothing to suggest those children are driving infections at all, it is very unlikely putting the other 50% back in will have very much impact on infections rates. |
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