"Sky, Guardian, University of Bath
https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-real-world-analysis-of-vaccine-in-israel-raises-questions-about-uk-strategy-12192751"
Thanks, was checking it's the same as what I've read in Spanish and it is. The Israeli data doesn't say it's 33% effective after 1 dose. It shows a 33% decrease in rates of positive Covid tests, 14 days after the first dose. Pfizer/BioNTech's own data had around 52% reduction. The difference is probably that with the Israelis focusing on their very elderly population vs the study which had only a small cohort of over 75s (fewer than 800 in each of the placebo and vaccine cohorts), and older people make weaker immune responses, pulling the Israeli data down a bit.
This confirms my own view that the UK approach to delay the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine is crazy. Already, the older people we vaccinate will make a weaker immune response and probably won't get close to the 95% efficacy. Delaying the second jab of the Pfizer-BioNTech one risks wasting our time, because by 12 weeks post vaccination, it's very likely that 33-52% decrease in positive tests will decrease yet further.
It says something that we're the only country delaying. Yes, it looks good on paper that we've vaccinated X million people, but if it's only half a job and we waste some of the effort, why do it at all?
I'm so glad my Dad had two doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, with this latest data. |
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I've not seen the published medical study data but we will need to follow results from places like Israel, as they are moving very quickly to full population vaccination. And we need those in charge to change course very quickly, if the highest priority first vaccine group is to be kept protected. They are after all those to be prevented from getting infected and serious ill.
Getting out of restrictions etc needs effective vaccination, not a half baked measure.
This report may need some healthy scepticism as the vaccines are new and immunity takes time to develop. People are thus more vulnerable in the early stages post treatment |
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"Sky, Guardian, University of Bath
https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-real-world-analysis-of-vaccine-in-israel-raises-questions-about-uk-strategy-12192751
Thanks, was checking it's the same as what I've read in Spanish and it is. The Israeli data doesn't say it's 33% effective after 1 dose. It shows a 33% decrease in rates of positive Covid tests, 14 days after the first dose. Pfizer/BioNTech's own data had around 52% reduction. The difference is probably that with the Israelis focusing on their very elderly population vs the study which had only a small cohort of over 75s (fewer than 800 in each of the placebo and vaccine cohorts), and older people make weaker immune responses, pulling the Israeli data down a bit.
This confirms my own view that the UK approach to delay the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine is crazy. Already, the older people we vaccinate will make a weaker immune response and probably won't get close to the 95% efficacy. Delaying the second jab of the Pfizer-BioNTech one risks wasting our time, because by 12 weeks post vaccination, it's very likely that 33-52% decrease in positive tests will decrease yet further.
It says something that we're the only country delaying. Yes, it looks good on paper that we've vaccinated X million people, but if it's only half a job and we waste some of the effort, why do it at all?
I'm so glad my Dad had two doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, with this latest data."
It concerns me that we started this on those with the least strong immune systems too. |
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Sophie, the Pfizer-BioNTech paper is at the following reference:
Fernando P. Polack, M.D., Stephen J. Thomas, M.D., Nicholas Kitchin, M.D., Judith Absalon, M.D., et al.; (2020); Safety and Efficacy of the BNT162b2 mRNA Covid-19 Vaccine; New England Journal of Medicine; 383:2603-2615
DOI: 10.1056/NEJMoa2034577 |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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This is really interesting to read but I have absolutely no scientific expertise or interest really.
Could someone explain this to me in a simplified way please. |
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By *D835Man
over a year ago
London |
"Sky, Guardian, University of Bath
https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-real-world-analysis-of-vaccine-in-israel-raises-questions-about-uk-strategy-12192751
Thanks, was checking it's the same as what I've read in Spanish and it is. The Israeli data doesn't say it's 33% effective after 1 dose. It shows a 33% decrease in rates of positive Covid tests, 14 days after the first dose. Pfizer/BioNTech's own data had around 52% reduction. The difference is probably that with the Israelis focusing on their very elderly population vs the study which had only a small cohort of over 75s (fewer than 800 in each of the placebo and vaccine cohorts), and older people make weaker immune responses, pulling the Israeli data down a bit.
This confirms my own view that the UK approach to delay the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine is crazy. Already, the older people we vaccinate will make a weaker immune response and probably won't get close to the 95% efficacy. Delaying the second jab of the Pfizer-BioNTech one risks wasting our time, because by 12 weeks post vaccination, it's very likely that 33-52% decrease in positive tests will decrease yet further.
It says something that we're the only country delaying. Yes, it looks good on paper that we've vaccinated X million people, but if it's only half a job and we waste some of the effort, why do it at all?
I'm so glad my Dad had two doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, with this latest data."
|
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My sis and family live in Israel and they're doing an amazing job there. My 27yr old nephew for example has already had both doses. I believe over 65% of their population now received 1st dose. I understand there are pockets of the population where transmission is particularly high and people in these areas are refusing the vaccination |
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"This is really interesting to read but I have absolutely no scientific expertise or interest really.
Could someone explain this to me in a simplified way please."
What is it you want simplifying, Lorna? |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"This is really interesting to read but I have absolutely no scientific expertise or interest really.
Could someone explain this to me in a simplified way please.
What is it you want simplifying, Lorna?"
So basically what I want to know is does this data show that the vaccine is as effective at preventing serious illness as we thought in a significant portion of the population. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"1st dose around 30 percent effective.
Looks like it will take a while for us to get that 2nd dose in"
Quick question when was the last time you used Israeli data to form an opinion?
I work in Data Analysis..... We can back up any slant on any subject matter... Full live Analysis is being carried out in the UK right now.   |
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"1st dose around 30 percent effective.
Looks like it will take a while for us to get that 2nd dose in
Quick question when was the last time you used Israeli data to form an opinion?
I work in Data Analysis..... We can back up any slant on any subject matter... Full live Analysis is being carried out in the UK right now. "
Why would Israeli scientists publish inaccurate data on the efficacy of one jab? Their data is reasonably close to that published by Pfizer-BioNTech and there's a clear explanation for why in a majority over 75s population, the efficacy with be a bit lower than the studies, which included only 800 over 75s in each of the cohorts (compared to almost 20,000 in each cohort in total). Over 75s made up less than 5% of the study participants but make up the overwhelming majority of the Israeli population vaccinated. Older people make weaker immune responses. This is why, for example, the influenza vaccine is different for older people vs younger people. |
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"1st dose around 30 percent effective.
Looks like it will take a while for us to get that 2nd dose in
Quick question when was the last time you used Israeli data to form an opinion?
I work in Data Analysis..... We can back up any slant on any subject matter... Full live Analysis is being carried out in the UK right now.
Why would Israeli scientists publish inaccurate data on the efficacy of one jab? Their data is reasonably close to that published by Pfizer-BioNTech and there's a clear explanation for why in a majority over 75s population, the efficacy with be a bit lower than the studies, which included only 800 over 75s in each of the cohorts (compared to almost 20,000 in each cohort in total). Over 75s made up less than 5% of the study participants but make up the overwhelming majority of the Israeli population vaccinated. Older people make weaker immune responses. This is why, for example, the influenza vaccine is different for older people vs younger people."
The Israeli study is based on over 60 not solely over 75s. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
"1st dose around 30 percent effective.
Looks like it will take a while for us to get that 2nd dose in
Quick question when was the last time you used Israeli data to form an opinion?
I work in Data Analysis..... We can back up any slant on any subject matter... Full live Analysis is being carried out in the UK right now.
Why would Israeli scientists publish inaccurate data on the efficacy of one jab? Their data is reasonably close to that published by Pfizer-BioNTech and there's a clear explanation for why in a majority over 75s population, the efficacy with be a bit lower than the studies, which included only 800 over 75s in each of the cohorts (compared to almost 20,000 in each cohort in total). Over 75s made up less than 5% of the study participants but make up the overwhelming majority of the Israeli population vaccinated. Older people make weaker immune responses. This is why, for example, the influenza vaccine is different for older people vs younger people."
Good question why would they?
Was it really Israeli scientists that released the data??
Drill down further, if you really want a balanced view.
Sorry, this sounds a little M15 now xx
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"1st dose around 30 percent effective.
Looks like it will take a while for us to get that 2nd dose in
Quick question when was the last time you used Israeli data to form an opinion?
I work in Data Analysis..... We can back up any slant on any subject matter... Full live Analysis is being carried out in the UK right now.
Why would Israeli scientists publish inaccurate data on the efficacy of one jab? Their data is reasonably close to that published by Pfizer-BioNTech and there's a clear explanation for why in a majority over 75s population, the efficacy with be a bit lower than the studies, which included only 800 over 75s in each of the cohorts (compared to almost 20,000 in each cohort in total). Over 75s made up less than 5% of the study participants but make up the overwhelming majority of the Israeli population vaccinated. Older people make weaker immune responses. This is why, for example, the influenza vaccine is different for older people vs younger people.
The Israeli study is based on over 60 not solely over 75s. "
And Pfizer-BioNTech data on efficacy is based on ages 16-91 but only 800 (ish) people over 75 were included in their studies. They don't break the ages down any more than 16-54; 55+ and 75+. What I'm getting at is the Pfizer-BioNTech data on efficacy includes a majority of people in the younger age ranges, who haven't yet been vaccinated here, Israel it anywhere else. This means that the efficacy in the Pfizer-BioNTech data is on the optimistic side for the eldest of the population, mostly the group making up the Israeli data.
It's totally unsurprising that a cohort of older people generated a lower efficacy rate after 1 dose than in the clinical studies. |
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"1st dose around 30 percent effective.
Looks like it will take a while for us to get that 2nd dose in
Quick question when was the last time you used Israeli data to form an opinion?
I work in Data Analysis..... We can back up any slant on any subject matter... Full live Analysis is being carried out in the UK right now.
Why would Israeli scientists publish inaccurate data on the efficacy of one jab? Their data is reasonably close to that published by Pfizer-BioNTech and there's a clear explanation for why in a majority over 75s population, the efficacy with be a bit lower than the studies, which included only 800 over 75s in each of the cohorts (compared to almost 20,000 in each cohort in total). Over 75s made up less than 5% of the study participants but make up the overwhelming majority of the Israeli population vaccinated. Older people make weaker immune responses. This is why, for example, the influenza vaccine is different for older people vs younger people.
Good question why would they?
Was it really Israeli scientists that released the data??
Drill down further, if you really want a balanced view.
Sorry, this sounds a little M15 now xx
"
If it's so blindingly obvious, you can explain here. The Israeli data supports the Pfizer-BioNTech data, just shows slightly reduced efficacy after 14 days post first dose. This is hardly the shock of the century.
Giving one dose of Pfizer-BioNTech and waiting more than 21 days, especially in the oldest people, is a crazy strategy that isn't supported by any data from any country. Mossad or not.
Anyway, I'm keen to hear why the Israelis want the Pfizer-BioNTech jab to appear less effective... |
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"The uk government pointed out that the studies showed those who caught covid after one dose of the vaccine did not need hospital treatment. That is the basis of delaying the second jab. "
I'm not sure what the UK Government have read in the Pfizer-BioNTech data, but it doesn't say that anywhere. For reference, the following paragraph is the only one in the whole study report that refers to the effect of one dose:
"The cumulative incidence of Covid-19 cases over time among placebo and vaccine recipients begins to diverge by 12 days after the first dose, 7 days after the estimated median viral incubation period of 5 days, indicating the early onset of a partially protective effect of immunization. The study was not designed to assess the efficacy of a single-dose regimen. Nevertheless, in the interval between the first and second doses, the observed vaccine efficacy against Covid-19 was 52%, and in the first 7 days after dose 2, it was 91%, reaching full efficacy against disease with onset at least 7 days after dose 2. Of the 10 cases of severe Covid-19 that were observed after the first dose, only 1 occurred in the vaccine group. This finding is consistent with overall high efficacy against all Covid-19 cases. The severe case split provides preliminary evidence of vaccine-mediated protection against severe disease, alleviating many of the theoretical concerns over vaccine-mediated disease enhancement." |
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By *D835Man
over a year ago
London |
"The uk government pointed out that the studies showed those who caught covid after one dose of the vaccine did not need hospital treatment. That is the basis of delaying the second jab. "
Did the study say how long you should delay the second jab ? |
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"The uk government pointed out that the studies showed those who caught covid after one dose of the vaccine did not need hospital treatment. That is the basis of delaying the second jab. "
Were any of the study group over 80 ? Or over 90 ? |
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" Older people make weaker immune responses. This is why, for example, the influenza vaccine is different for older people vs younger people."
Interesting. Yet the Covid vaccine is the same for everyone |
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"The uk government pointed out that the studies showed those who caught covid after one dose of the vaccine did not need hospital treatment. That is the basis of delaying the second jab.
Were any of the study group over 80 ? Or over 90 ?"
It's not broken down so much. For the Pfizer-BioNTech one, just under 800 people over 75 (out of 20,000 in each of the cohorts) were included in each cohort (vaccine vs placebo). The age range went up to 89 in the vaccine treatment group and 91 in the placebo group. |
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" Older people make weaker immune responses. This is why, for example, the influenza vaccine is different for older people vs younger people.
Interesting. Yet the Covid vaccine is the same for everyone"
Yes. Not all vaccines are different for the different age groups, but the seasonal flu vaccine is.
The NHS page on flu jabs explains:
"There are several types of injected flu vaccine. None of them contains live viruses so they cannot give you flu.
If you're eligible for the flu vaccine on the NHS, you'll be offered one that's most effective for you, depending on your age:
adults aged 18 to 64 – there are different types, including low-egg and egg-free ones
adults aged 65 and over – the most common one contains an extra ingredient to help your immune system make a stronger response to the vaccine
adults aged 50 to 64 – the most common vaccine is Flublok, which has been used in the USA for several years and is offered in the UK under special authorisation"
https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vaccinations/flu-influenza-vaccine/ |
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By *mmabluTV/TS
over a year ago
upton wirral |
"I've not seen the published medical study data but we will need to follow results from places like Israel, as they are moving very quickly to full population vaccination. And we need those in charge to change course very quickly, if the highest priority first vaccine group is to be kept protected. They are after all those to be prevented from getting infected and serious ill.
Getting out of restrictions etc needs effective vaccination, not a half baked measure.
This report may need some healthy scepticism as the vaccines are new and immunity takes time to develop. People are thus more vulnerable in the early stages post treatment "
I believe that these results are two weeks after vaccination and with any vaccine they take up to 4 weeks to be effective I believe.I did read this but cannot remember the site |
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