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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago
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To begin with there were known to be 3 variants. The one from China, a different one in Europa and another in south america. Now we have more mutations - well that's how viruses survive, evolution in action- so now we have new Uk variants as well as south Africa and Brazil.
As at least one person has had two different variants how successful will the vaccination policy be in the long run.
I believe that this virus is here for the long term just as flu and common cold is and will mutate regularly.
Ultimately we will have to live with it and manage it like all other illnesses.
Unless someone has a magic bullet cure |
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The virus needs someone to replicate inside, which is when mutations can occur. These are random and it's likely that most will get lost along the way, as they confer no advantage, compared to the former dominant strain that competes with them.
As fewer people get infected, this reduces the likely mutation potential. We're currently in a position where many countries are seeing the greatest levels of infection, so we see the opposite - the increased potential for mutations to be occuring in many isolated countries, many at their peak infection levels.
If we had sustained high infection levels, a new mutation would have the potential to out-compete the former dominant strain, as happened with the Kent variant.
Higher infection levels equals higher likelihood of new mutations and variants..
The vaccines prime our bodies to be vigilant for characteristics of the virus. If the mutations have not differed to lose most of these, the immunity will still protect us.
Some of the vaccines can be tweaked quite easily and quickly, should any variants be found to not be subject to the immune response that the vaccines have formerly given. At present, most of the world population hasn't had any vaccine protection, so adjustments, if needed, may happen before they get their first dose.
The good news has been that the variants so far still would seem to be subject to the several vaccines' immunity that we get.
What's uncertain to date is how long any of the immunity that we gain from the different vaccines last - monitoring is ongoing.
This virus doesn't mutate as frequently as the flu viruses do, for example. The prominence of mutations is due to the high volumes of people getting infected. If we lower infection volumes, we will reduce the mutation volume too. This should reduce the potential for any to fall outside of the scope of our immunity.
When we find the immunity duration, we'll take a judgement based on the need for recurrent vaccinations. The subsequent vaccinations could be of adjusted vaccines, that counter any mutation. People are likely in my opinion to get repeat vaccines for some years to come, as we do with flu. Poorer countries may sadly be more subject to longer term higher infection levels than us and could be sources for seeding of new infections here and other richer countries.
That we are primed to be alert to new variants is a good thing. Globally we will need to continue our evaluation of testing done on newly infected people, to sample its make-up with sufficient frequency. |
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I was hoping the email I got earlier would come in useful. The list below are of known mutations in the spike protein gene (for reference, there are more genes on the viral genome too, all of which will exist in various mutant forms). Each 5 letter/digit code is a specific mutant.
Full List of SARS-CoV-2 Spike Mutants
P337S F338L V341I F342L A344S
A348S N354D A352S S359N V367F
N370S A372T A372S F377L K378N
K378R P384L T385A T393P V395I
E406Q R408I Q409E Q414R Q414E
K417N A435S W436R N439K N440K
K444R V445F G446V G446S L452R
Y453F F456L F456E K458R K458Q
E471Q I472V G476S S477R S477I
S477N T478I P479S N481D G482S
V483A V483I G485S F486S F490S
S494P P499R N501Y V503F Y505C
Y508H A520V A520S P521S P521R
A522V A522S D614G D405V Q414A
R683A, R685A, F817P, A892P, A899P, A942P, K 986P, V987P |
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"I was hoping the email I got earlier would come in useful. The list below are of known mutations in the spike protein gene (for reference, there are more genes on the viral genome too, all of which will exist in various mutant forms). Each 5 letter/digit code is a specific mutant.
Full List of SARS-CoV-2 Spike Mutants
P337S F338L V341I F342L A344S
A348S N354D A352S S359N V367F
N370S A372T A372S F377L K378N
K378R P384L T385A T393P V395I
E406Q R408I Q409E Q414R Q414E
K417N A435S W436R N439K N440K
K444R V445F G446V G446S L452R
Y453F F456L F456E K458R K458Q
E471Q I472V G476S S477R S477I
S477N T478I P479S N481D G482S
V483A V483I G485S F486S F490S
S494P P499R N501Y V503F Y505C
Y508H A520V A520S P521S P521R
A522V A522S D614G D405V Q414A
R683A, R685A, F817P, A892P, A899P, A942P, K 986P, V987P"
(tongue in cheek, intended to add a hint of levity to what is acknowledged as an awful situation)
Who's going to play covid Pokémon then? 151 kinds, Gotta catch 'em all! |
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For anyone thats interested have a look at COG UK, they are running lots of research projects which are quite interesting. w
Whether antibody treatments are helping viral evolution is quite a good read |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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There's actually quite a large number of variants already. Virus mutates all the time so that they can keep infecting as many hosts as possible.
There are about 2 variants at the moment that are causing concern, the Kent one and a Brazil one. Because they spread more easily x |
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"I think back in July last year they thought there was about 6 variants. So I'd imagine there are many more now "
It's been suggested that a typical virus produces a mutation every 10-20 cell divisions. This means there are literally millions of minor mutations. It is only an issue if a mutation becomes persistent and proves to be more "dangerous".
Cal |
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By *iki_lynnTV/TS
over a year ago
Thessaloniki, Greece |
There's actually quite a large number of variants already. Virus mutates all the time so that they can keep infecting as many hosts as possible.
There are about 2 variants at the moment that are causing concern, the Kent one and a Brazil one. Because they spread more easily
There seem to be concerns about the Brazil variant. Vaccine may be less effective. Interesting to observe that the bulk of vaccine testing was done in Brazil.
Could that mutation be a result of the virus having met it's enemy a few months ago?
Just a thought." |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"There's actually quite a large number of variants already. Virus mutates all the time so that they can keep infecting as many hosts as possible.
There are about 2 variants at the moment that are causing concern, the Kent one and a Brazil one. Because they spread more easily
There seem to be concerns about the Brazil variant. Vaccine may be less effective. Interesting to observe that the bulk of vaccine testing was done in Brazil.
Could that mutation be a result of the virus having met it's enemy a few months ago?
Just a thought." "
Your last point is a very interesting one and would raise my biggest concern. Multiple vaccines would seem to be the way forward,. But does that then just create a more difficult task going ahead of us too? |
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"There's actually quite a large number of variants already. Virus mutates all the time so that they can keep infecting as many hosts as possible.
There are about 2 variants at the moment that are causing concern, the Kent one and a Brazil one. Because they spread more easily
There seem to be concerns about the Brazil variant. Vaccine may be less effective. Interesting to observe that the bulk of vaccine testing was done in Brazil.
Could that mutation be a result of the virus having met it's enemy a few months ago?
Just a thought."
-------
Your last point is a very interesting one and would raise my biggest concern. Multiple vaccines would seem to be the way forward,. But does that then just create a more difficult task going ahead of us too?"
So far, the existing vaccines have been effective against every variant. The variation isn't different enough to effect the treatment.
Also, when the infection rate drops the number of new variants will reduce too.
Cal |
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