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A vaccine prediction for next week
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"Serious post, not intended to be humorous. Sections of the media have really not been helping this crisis, with hysterical headlines, misleading photos of crowds, or lack of, etc etc. Statistically speaking, with the vaccine first prioritised to over 80 year olds, the normal mortality rate without COVID is of course considerably higher than it would be for 20 year olds. My back of envelope calculations would be that, WITHOUT COVID, out of those given the vaccine from next week, (?200,000, not clear on the JCVI document today), we would expect 50 deaths per day. Assuming a two month roll out (unknown obviously), it seems to be statistically likely that one or more deaths a day will start to be observed almost immediately of those given the vaccine. Cue hysterical headlines next week, when they’ll be risible attempts by some of the media trying to link a natural death to a vaccine injection potentially taken hours beforehand. The government needs to get ahead of this and start preparing press releases ready for this event. A post to come back to in a couple of weeks." Took a little bit longer than my prediction and was in Spain, but here you go, hysterical irresponsible reporting: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9111311/Portuguese-health-worker-41-dies-two-days-getting-Pfizer-covid-vaccine.html | |||
"Serious post, not intended to be humorous. Sections of the media have really not been helping this crisis, with hysterical headlines, misleading photos of crowds, or lack of, etc etc. Statistically speaking, with the vaccine first prioritised to over 80 year olds, the normal mortality rate without COVID is of course considerably higher than it would be for 20 year olds. My back of envelope calculations would be that, WITHOUT COVID, out of those given the vaccine from next week, (?200,000, not clear on the JCVI document today), we would expect 50 deaths per day. Assuming a two month roll out (unknown obviously), it seems to be statistically likely that one or more deaths a day will start to be observed almost immediately of those given the vaccine. Cue hysterical headlines next week, when they’ll be risible attempts by some of the media trying to link a natural death to a vaccine injection potentially taken hours beforehand. The government needs to get ahead of this and start preparing press releases ready for this event. A post to come back to in a couple of weeks." But they make good test people and it has gone ok So just long term effects to look at. And no I'm serious not joking. | |||
