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COVID-19: the economic fallout
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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago
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This may be too much for a Sunday morning, but...
Government borrowing figures are at 'wartime' levels, economy shrinks to unprecedented level, sluggish growth, end of the transition period.
There's a general sense of we have to get through this - i.e., protect health and the NHS, and the economy to an extent, but where do people see the state economy in 1-2 years time, when a vaccine has been fully rolled out (and hopefully successfully) and things have returned to some normality?
Mass unemployment? Particularly, among your people and women.
Winters of discontent?
Strikes?
Or...Boom. |
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Strikes are unlikely because they wouldnt be effective and have public support. The public sector is about to be hammered again though with pay suppression over the last 10 years meaning im paid 6.5k a year less than i would have been. The way the gov says in these times we need tonshare the pain but when the private sector is getting more wealthy wages in both public and private sector dont go up. I think the public are , in general, too polarized for widespread action to garner any support. The next election could potentially change a lot if the conditions at the time are right.
Sorry for rambling |
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It’s not going to be pretty, tax or cuts have to total 46 billion by 2025 , 2 Trillion in debt now forecast to go to 2.8 in 3 years time , ,borrowing alone this year forecast to be 395 Billion , worst economy for 300 years |
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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago
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Yes, you're right - I also don't see a real likelihood for strikes among public sector workers ...people are exhausted as well. All that clapping has tired them out...
The pay freeze is disgraceful, in my opinion.
As a reasonably well-off private sector worker, the pandemic has left me better off, so far. I've been able to save more, invest whilst the markets are down etc... Seems to be the way the country is set up.
I'm concerned for the future though - not my own future, my job is pretty secure - but for my daughter and so on - people who are just starting out, small business owners etc...
It all seems a bit abstract, but I think it will all bite next year. |
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i maybe wrong but i think the u.s. financed us after the war and we only paid them back a few years ago. but we also had a lack of men coming after the war, and masses with ptsd. but we had a big building requirement and i think we just built our way out of it, but i think rationing went on well after the war.
its gonna be tough particarly those that want their old lifestyle and can't adapt |
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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago
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"i maybe wrong but i think the u.s. financed us after the war and we only paid them back a few years ago. but we also had a lack of men coming after the war, and masses with ptsd. but we had a big building requirement and i think we just built our way out of it, but i think rationing went on well after the war.
its gonna be tough particarly those that want their old lifestyle and can't adapt"
Your history is good and you're right I think - no one is getting their old lifestyle back completely. Apparently, times of crisis vastly speed up the advance of trends. In this case, the move to online working and communication. It was happening slowly before, but now it's commonplace. For an economy built on services, it's bitter-sweet. For companies labour becomes cheaper and easier to source - people can 'dial in' and thus work, from anywhere in the world. For employees, you are now competing for jobs with the rest of world. |
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The government paid 10 million people’s wages for 6 months, add the support for business and its a whopping bill
The good news is interest rates are zero. Uk 50 year gilts pay 0.72% meaning savers will get nothing for the rest of their lives
Good time to borrow and invest, 1.1 million people on council house waiting lists is a good place to start. People need homes and the state can borrow for virtually nothing, and construction jobs and training would make a significant contribution to unemployment. |
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Loving this thread btw. Some really insightful comments.
I definitely agree that if you have money you probably have made money through this (though a lot of mega rich will be down in the short term and are HODL'ing).
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Would be a good idea except every person who takes one of those retirees jobs directly pays for their state pension. One in one out
The problem of funding state pensions is huge, the UK has an ageing population where by 2040 a quarter of the UK (17 million ppl) will be aged 65 and over. |
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"I started a thread on here at the start of the first lockdown in March , regarding the economics and financial losses , a lot of people just scoffed, "
I certainly didn't scoff.. People have been running scared with this pandemic. The truth is... There is worse to come. Bet those, who scoffed will be among the very first to moan when its payback time. This country has no backbone
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"I started a thread on here at the start of the first lockdown in March , regarding the economics and financial losses , a lot of people just scoffed, "
A lot did we was always saying there’s going to be such a huge Economic downturn
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"The government paid 10 million people’s wages for 6 months, add the support for business and its a whopping bill
The good news is interest rates are zero. Uk 50 year gilts pay 0.72% meaning savers will get nothing for the rest of their lives
Good time to borrow and invest, 1.1 million people on council house waiting lists is a good place to start. People need homes and the state can borrow for virtually nothing, and construction jobs and training would make a significant contribution to unemployment. "
Don’t forget thou interest rates can and most probably will go up |
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"The government paid 10 million people’s wages for 6 months, add the support for business and its a whopping bill
The good news is interest rates are zero. Uk 50 year gilts pay 0.72% meaning savers will get nothing for the rest of their lives
Good time to borrow and invest, 1.1 million people on council house waiting lists is a good place to start. People need homes and the state can borrow for virtually nothing, and construction jobs and training would make a significant contribution to unemployment. Don’t forget thou interest rates can and most probably will go up"
i have investments and performance had t been affected up to yet the same as my pension fund , after a chat with my financial advisor he said most people affected will be those with savings in the bank
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"The government paid 10 million people’s wages for 6 months, add the support for business and its a whopping bill
The good news is interest rates are zero. Uk 50 year gilts pay 0.72% meaning savers will get nothing for the rest of their lives
Good time to borrow and invest, 1.1 million people on council house waiting lists is a good place to start. People need homes and the state can borrow for virtually nothing, and construction jobs and training would make a significant contribution to unemployment. Don’t forget thou interest rates can and most probably will go upi have investments and performance had t been affected up to yet the same as my pension fund , after a chat with my financial advisor he said most people affected will be those with savings in the bank
"
Pension pots will dip in the short term but moving money was something many were doing 5 months ago. Safe haven assets until things settle |
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"Strikes are unlikely because they wouldnt be effective and have public support. The public sector is about to be hammered again though with pay suppression over the last 10 years meaning im paid 6.5k a year less than i would have been. The way the gov says in these times we need tonshare the pain but when the private sector is getting more wealthy wages in both public and private sector dont go up. I think the public are , in general, too polarized for widespread action to garner any support. The next election could potentially change a lot if the conditions at the time are right.
Sorry for rambling"
I think there will be à few public sector strikes next year
There is widespread discontent and anger. |
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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago
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"The government paid 10 million people’s wages for 6 months, add the support for business and its a whopping bill
The good news is interest rates are zero. Uk 50 year gilts pay 0.72% meaning savers will get nothing for the rest of their lives
Good time to borrow and invest, 1.1 million people on council house waiting lists is a good place to start. People need homes and the state can borrow for virtually nothing, and construction jobs and training would make a significant contribution to unemployment. Don’t forget thou interest rates can and most probably will go upi have investments and performance had t been affected up to yet the same as my pension fund , after a chat with my financial advisor he said most people affected will be those with savings in the bank
"
There hasn't been good reason to keep savings in the bank for more than a decade. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"Bring the state pension age back down to 60/65 and thereby open up job opportunities to the younger generation.All these people then have to be given a pension that is the problem"
Equally, you pay all you're working life towards you're state pension, a good many never actually living long enough after pension age to draw back what was paid in. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"The government paid 10 million people’s wages for 6 months, add the support for business and its a whopping bill
The good news is interest rates are zero. Uk 50 year gilts pay 0.72% meaning savers will get nothing for the rest of their lives
Good time to borrow and invest, 1.1 million people on council house waiting lists is a good place to start. People need homes and the state can borrow for virtually nothing, and construction jobs and training would make a significant contribution to unemployment. "
build on what land? we need to strip back people’s expectations of having 2 spare bedrooms etc etc as part of the housing crisis... most of us take up (and feel entitled to) much more space than we need, we cant just keep building infinitely to keep up |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"Bring the state pension age back down to 60/65 and thereby open up job opportunities to the younger generation.All these people then have to be given a pension that is the problem
Equally, you pay all you're working life towards you're state pension, a good many never actually living long enough after pension age to draw back what was paid in."
absolute nonsense, the average uk life expectancy is 81 at the moment
for every one dying before they can claim there are others living 30 years on the pension... thats how averages work |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"Bring the state pension age back down to 60/65 and thereby open up job opportunities to the younger generation.All these people then have to be given a pension that is the problem
Equally, you pay all you're working life towards you're state pension, a good many never actually living long enough after pension age to draw back what was paid in.
absolute nonsense, the average uk life expectancy is 81 at the moment
for every one dying before they can claim there are others living 30 years on the pension... thats how averages work "
Interesting view given the ONS show that the percentage 65 and over is 18% and 85 and over is 2.4% |
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"build on what land? we need to strip back people’s expectations of having 2 spare bedrooms etc etc as part of the housing crisis... most of us take up (and feel entitled to) much more space than we need, we cant just keep building infinitely to keep up "
No shortage of land, depending on the narrative we choose to belief 6-10% of land is developed. The English housing survey shows 23 million empty bedrooms - as you say under occupation. Add empty retail and office space for reuse. And cheap money to build. |
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"build on what land? we need to strip back people’s expectations of having 2 spare bedrooms etc etc as part of the housing crisis... most of us take up (and feel entitled to) much more space than we need, we cant just keep building infinitely to keep up
No shortage of land, depending on the narrative we choose to belief 6-10% of land is developed. The English housing survey shows 23 million empty bedrooms - as you say under occupation. Add empty retail and office space for reuse. And cheap money to build. "
I thought we had an housing shortage?
Doesnt The royal family own half those empty bedrooms? |
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"build on what land? we need to strip back people’s expectations of having 2 spare bedrooms etc etc as part of the housing crisis... most of us take up (and feel entitled to) much more space than we need, we cant just keep building infinitely to keep up
No shortage of land, depending on the narrative we choose to belief 6-10% of land is developed. The English housing survey shows 23 million empty bedrooms - as you say under occupation. Add empty retail and office space for reuse. And cheap money to build.
I thought we had an housing shortage?
Doesnt The royal family own half those empty bedrooms?"
The Royal family own 11.5 million bedrooms? |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"Bring the state pension age back down to 60/65 and thereby open up job opportunities to the younger generation.All these people then have to be given a pension that is the problem
Equally, you pay all you're working life towards you're state pension, a good many never actually living long enough after pension age to draw back what was paid in.
absolute nonsense, the average uk life expectancy is 81 at the moment
for every one dying before they can claim there are others living 30 years on the pension... thats how averages work
Interesting view given the ONS show that the percentage 65 and over is 18% and 85 and over is 2.4%"
and the percentage of paid in their whole life and died just before 65 is what? |
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Slow economic response, after Brexit hit. Unemployment poor.
Government should be investing for growth but probably don't do enough in the short term, preferring talking about big numbers, though they will typically not all get invested for several more years. You'll think it was happening but largely just HS2 gets the money as usual. Too much talk. |
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"I started a thread on here at the start of the first lockdown in March , regarding the economics and financial losses , a lot of people just scoffed, "
I have always been outspoken about looking past the virus. And have been scoffed at, as this whole episode has carried on and gotten even more ludicrous I am still fabergasted that the populous can't see past the end of there pretty useless and most cases badly worn masks.
This is not about saving Granny or the NHS. We are being fucked over, do your research about the Great reset and the WEF's very own living Bond villain Klaus Schwabb.
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By *reyyaMan
over a year ago
North Yorkshire |
"It’s not going to be pretty, tax or cuts have to total 46 billion by 2025 , 2 Trillion in debt now forecast to go to 2.8 in 3 years time , ,borrowing alone this year forecast to be 395 Billion , worst economy for 300 years "
And foreign aid
To China |
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