What percentage of the population would need to be vaccinated to greatly reduce/eradicate the virus?
Imagine a room of 100 people, half are vaccinated, half are not and one of them has the virus. The vaccinated don’t get infected, the other 49 do, but once they have ,surely the virus would die off?
Maybe I’m missing something?
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"What percentage of the population would need to be vaccinated to greatly reduce/eradicate the virus?
Imagine a room of 100 people, half are vaccinated, half are not and one of them has the virus. The vaccinated don’t get infected, the other 49 do, but once they have ,surely the virus would die off?
Maybe I’m missing something?
"
There are a lot of unknowns. We know that you can be reinfected. So far it seems quite a rare occurrence thankfully. We don't know how long immunity lasts. We don't know the amount of people who need to be immune at the same time to achieve "herd immunity" this protects the none immune population.. With measles you need almost 90% vaccination rates or you start to lose herd immunity and none vaccinated people have been increasely getting measles. I personally think it will be difficult for about half of the population to achieve natural immunity would take many years and the death and injury rates would be massive in the mean time. Herd immunity can only practically be achieved with a vaccine unless the % with immunity needed is very low. |
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As the other poster stated, it depends on a number of things. If the people vaccinated were the most likely to both get infected and to infect a disproportionately high number of people, then it would need a lower percentage of that population to drive infection levels down - which is good - though it would still be occurring.
You'd need to look at the latest calculations from experts. Probabilities and statistical analysis are what it boils down to. The virus will have a known infectivity potential, affected by our behaviour. Population level analysis will indicate the required levels of effective immunity required, which will be achieved by vaccination - though the effective levels of immunity won't be the same as the number of people vaccinated, as it won't provide 100% immunity, due to lags to establish as well as personal immune systems not providing immunity in every case. The vaccine trials will indicate the likely levels of immunity amongst the general population that it would be expected to achieve.
We currently know mumps, flu etc effectiveness from each vaccine but we don't have that yet, only the estimates of infectivity. I've seen requirements from about 40 - 80% quoted but these are probably fag packet numbers. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"What percentage of the population would need to be vaccinated to greatly reduce/eradicate the virus?
Imagine a room of 100 people, half are vaccinated, half are not and one of them has the virus. The vaccinated don’t get infected, the other 49 do, but once they have ,surely the virus would die off?
Maybe I’m missing something?
"
The amount of vaccination required is denominated by the infectiousness of the virus, measles has the most infectious r number at around 12 hence it requires a 94% vaccination rate, the r number for sars-cov2 is estimated at mean according to the Lancet at 3.28 meaning of the vaccine was perfect it would require around 45-55% vaccination rate. |
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The percentage of people vaccinated is not the only factor though, It is important WHO is vaccinated too. The expected vaccination schedule will target those who are most vulnerable and there have been suggestions that under 50s will not be vaccinated at all, however the people who will be keeping the virus active will be the most mobile ones, in my mind that would be the under 50s.
Cal |
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One of the world’s leading Covid-19 experimental vaccines produces an immune response in both older and young adults, raising hopes of a path out of the gloom and economic destruction wrought by the novel coronavirus.
The vaccine, developed by the University of Oxford, also triggers lower adverse responses among elderly people, said the British drug maker AstraZeneca, which is helping to manufacture the vaccine, on Monday. |
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By *ab jamesMan
over a year ago
ribble valley |
"Unfortunately the study released today showing immunity MAY not last very long is worrying for any vaccine.
Let's just hope it's wrong  "
Seems pretty airtight. 360000 people in it. Think people will forget about herd immunity now. Thank god nobody listened to the great Barrington declaration  |
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"What percentage of the population would need to be vaccinated to greatly reduce/eradicate the virus?
Imagine a room of 100 people, half are vaccinated, half are not and one of them has the virus. The vaccinated don’t get infected, the other 49 do, but once they have ,surely the virus would die off?
Maybe I’m missing something?
"
I think the experts are of the opinion that it won't die off, at least anytime soon.
Probably too early to tell what's going to happen in the future as we don't fully understand what's happening today. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"Unfortunately the study released today showing immunity MAY not last very long is worrying for any vaccine.
Let's just hope it's wrong
Seems pretty airtight. 360000 people in it. Think people will forget about herd immunity now. Thank god nobody listened to the great Barrington declaration "
Natural herd immunity or vaccinated immunity both rely on a lasting immunity.
It's not good news for anybody |
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"Unfortunately the study released today showing immunity MAY not last very long is worrying for any vaccine.
Let's just hope it's wrong
Seems pretty airtight. 360000 people in it. Think people will forget about herd immunity now. Thank god nobody listened to the great Barrington declaration
Natural herd immunity or vaccinated immunity both rely on a lasting immunity.
It's not good news for anybody "
But not necessarily a long lasting presence of anti bodies.
The glass is still half full  |
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By *ab jamesMan
over a year ago
ribble valley |
"Unfortunately the study released today showing immunity MAY not last very long is worrying for any vaccine.
Let's just hope it's wrong
Seems pretty airtight. 360000 people in it. Think people will forget about herd immunity now. Thank god nobody listened to the great Barrington declaration
Natural herd immunity or vaccinated immunity both rely on a lasting immunity.
It's not good news for anybody
But not necessarily a long lasting presence of anti bodies.
The glass is still half full "
Definitely. Everything learned about covid is a good thing |
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"Unfortunately the study released today showing immunity MAY not last very long is worrying for any vaccine.
Let's just hope it's wrong
Seems pretty airtight. 360000 people in it. Think people will forget about herd immunity now. Thank god nobody listened to the great Barrington declaration
Natural herd immunity or vaccinated immunity both rely on a lasting immunity.
It's not good news for anybody "
The trick is to make everyone immune at the same time, then we would get the treat of the virus dying out.
Cal |
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By *arry247Couple
over a year ago
Wakefield |
"What percentage of the population would need to be vaccinated to greatly reduce/eradicate the virus?
Imagine a room of 100 people, half are vaccinated, half are not and one of them has the virus. The vaccinated don’t get infected, the other 49 do, but once they have ,surely the virus would die off?
Maybe I’m missing something?
"
What you are missing is it is not straight forward like that.
Look at it in the same way as a woman getting pregnant, some will get pregnant the first time they have sex, some may take years for their first pregnancy then fall pregnant again almost as soon as the baby is born and others may never get pregnant. |
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"Unfortunately the study released today showing immunity MAY not last very long is worrying for any vaccine.
Let's just hope it's wrong
Seems pretty airtight. 360000 people in it. Think people will forget about herd immunity now. Thank god nobody listened to the great Barrington declaration
Natural herd immunity or vaccinated immunity both rely on a lasting immunity.
It's not good news for anybody "
As far as I can see this was a study based on people who had had covid 19 infection and does not necessarily reflect on the effectiveness or longevity of a vaccine. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"One of the world’s leading Covid-19 experimental vaccines produces an immune response in both older and young adults, raising hopes of a path out of the gloom and economic destruction wrought by the novel coronavirus.
The vaccine, developed by the University of Oxford, also triggers lower adverse responses among elderly people, said the British drug maker AstraZeneca, which is helping to manufacture the vaccine, on Monday."
I read that somewhere. That the vaccines aren't necessarily to make people immune, but that they will have a lower adverse response. So then hopefully it would just be like a bad cold. Hope so. |
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"Unfortunately the study released today showing immunity MAY not last very long is worrying for any vaccine.
Let's just hope it's wrong
Seems pretty airtight. 360000 people in it. Think people will forget about herd immunity now. Thank god nobody listened to the great Barrington declaration
Natural herd immunity or vaccinated immunity both rely on a lasting immunity.
It's not good news for anybody "
If everyone gets vaccinated within a short period then surely the virus won't be able to survive? |
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