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Are we now at the same rate
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"At the press conference today one of them said 100's of thousands could of been infected back then but not able to report it. So no, not quite."
Bit there are 100s of thousands currently infected !! |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"At the press conference today one of them said 100's of thousands could of been infected back then but not able to report it. So no, not quite.
Bit there are 100s of thousands currently infected !!"
They estimated 100,000 cases a day in March, they are estimating 19,000 a day at the moment. |
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"At the press conference today one of them said 100's of thousands could of been infected back then but not able to report it. So no, not quite.
Bit there are 100s of thousands currently infected !!
They estimated 100,000 cases a day in March, they are estimating 19,000 a day at the moment."
My estimate we are probably where we were at in mid march, using the daily deaths. So there definitely still time to turn this round so we don't reach the deaths and infeiction of april. As a country we all need to do our bit. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"At the press conference today one of them said 100's of thousands could of been infected back then but not able to report it. So no, not quite.
Bit there are 100s of thousands currently infected !!
They estimated 100,000 cases a day in March, they are estimating 19,000 a day at the moment.
My estimate we are probably where we were at in mid march, using the daily deaths. So there definitely still time to turn this round so we don't reach the deaths and infeiction of april. As a country we all need to do our bit. "
We are exactly at the same rate in deaths that we were just two days before lockdown in march... |
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By *ady LickWoman
over a year ago
Northampton Somewhere |
"At the press conference today one of them said 100's of thousands could of been infected back then but not able to report it. So no, not quite.
Bit there are 100s of thousands currently infected !!"
Sorry, I meant daily |
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"At the press conference today one of them said 100's of thousands could of been infected back then but not able to report it. So no, not quite.
Bit there are 100s of thousands currently infected !!
They estimated 100,000 cases a day in March, they are estimating 19,000 a day at the moment.
My estimate we are probably where we were at in mid march, using the daily deaths. So there definitely still time to turn this round so we don't reach the deaths and infeiction of april. As a country we all need to do our bit.
We are exactly at the same rate in deaths that we were just two days before lockdown in march..."
The period it is taking for daily deaths to double is longer though, I think a full national lockdown is a bit further than 2 weeks away, but looking invertible  . It will hurt more this time, compliance will be poorer and funding less generous. Buckle up it is going to be a tough winter. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"At the press conference today one of them said 100's of thousands could of been infected back then but not able to report it. So no, not quite.
Bit there are 100s of thousands currently infected !!
They estimated 100,000 cases a day in March, they are estimating 19,000 a day at the moment.
My estimate we are probably where we were at in mid march, using the daily deaths. So there definitely still time to turn this round so we don't reach the deaths and infeiction of april. As a country we all need to do our bit.
We are exactly at the same rate in deaths that we were just two days before lockdown in march...
The period it is taking for daily deaths to double is longer though, I think a full national lockdown is a bit further than 2 weeks away, but looking invertible . It will hurt more this time, compliance will be poorer and funding less generous. Buckle up it is going to be a tough winter."
I was just stating a fact...no predictions.. |
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"Of infections as we were in February ?
We didnt have a clue how many were infected until it was too late as we weren't testing for it.
"
It's fairly likely that early in the year the infection rate was much higher that we knew due to much less testing back then.
Cal |
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"At the press conference today one of them said 100's of thousands could of been infected back then but not able to report it. So no, not quite.
Bit there are 100s of thousands currently infected !!
They estimated 100,000 cases a day in March, they are estimating 19,000 a day at the moment."
I was suggesting we might be at a similar rate to early or mid February, the deaths could also have been similar but not attributed to Covid at that stage
Either way we need to take better precautions |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"At the press conference today one of them said 100's of thousands could of been infected back then but not able to report it. So no, not quite.
Bit there are 100s of thousands currently infected !!
They estimated 100,000 cases a day in March, they are estimating 19,000 a day at the moment.
My estimate we are probably where we were at in mid march, using the daily deaths. So there definitely still time to turn this round so we don't reach the deaths and infeiction of april. As a country we all need to do our bit.
We are exactly at the same rate in deaths that we were just two days before lockdown in march..."
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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Therefore it doesn’t really bode well?
We need to know the government strategy here , and the blurred lines are the biggest hindrance to the problems that face us ? |
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"At the press conference today one of them said 100's of thousands could of been infected back then but not able to report it. So no, not quite.
Bit there are 100s of thousands currently infected !!
They estimated 100,000 cases a day in March, they are estimating 19,000 a day at the moment.
My estimate we are probably where we were at in mid march, using the daily deaths. So there definitely still time to turn this round so we don't reach the deaths and infeiction of april. As a country we all need to do our bit. "
There is absolutely NO point in comparing cases and deaths in march to now. Here is why...
11.33% of the total cases in the under 64s were recorded last 7 days.
2.88% of the total cases in the 65 and over were records last 7 days.
This shows very clearly that those at most risk of death are not catching it at the same rate they were. Therefore deaths will be far lower when comparing cases.
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By *orny PTMan
over a year ago
Peterborough |
We need to watch the figures for October's half term and Thanksgiving (Stateside), as this will be a high risk time, causing numbers to spike again, if not careful. This will predict what Christmas will be like. |
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"Therefore it doesn’t really bode well?
We need to know the government strategy here , and the blurred lines are the biggest hindrance to the problems that face us ? "
Strategy is simple, try to suppress the virus and buy time for a vaccine whilst inflicting as little damage on the economy as possible. Also known as trying to hammer a square peg in a triangular hole.. the tools available are a wet fish, a sweaty flannel and some dog faeces. It’s difficult, messy and generally very unpleasant whatever tools they choose. |
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"At the press conference today one of them said 100's of thousands could of been infected back then but not able to report it. So no, not quite.
Bit there are 100s of thousands currently infected !!
They estimated 100,000 cases a day in March, they are estimating 19,000 a day at the moment.
My estimate we are probably where we were at in mid march, using the daily deaths. So there definitely still time to turn this round so we don't reach the deaths and infeiction of april. As a country we all need to do our bit.
There is absolutely NO point in comparing cases and deaths in march to now. Here is why...
11.33% of the total cases in the under 64s were recorded last 7 days.
2.88% of the total cases in the 65 and over were records last 7 days.
This shows very clearly that those at most risk of death are not catching it at the same rate they were. Therefore deaths will be far lower when comparing cases.
"
You missed an important word YET |
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"At the press conference today one of them said 100's of thousands could of been infected back then but not able to report it. So no, not quite.
Bit there are 100s of thousands currently infected !!
They estimated 100,000 cases a day in March, they are estimating 19,000 a day at the moment.
My estimate we are probably where we were at in mid march, using the daily deaths. So there definitely still time to turn this round so we don't reach the deaths and infeiction of april. As a country we all need to do our bit.
There is absolutely NO point in comparing cases and deaths in march to now. Here is why...
11.33% of the total cases in the under 64s were recorded last 7 days.
2.88% of the total cases in the 65 and over were records last 7 days.
This shows very clearly that those at most risk of death are not catching it at the same rate they were. Therefore deaths will be far lower when comparing cases.
You missed an important word YET"
I was demonstrating that comparing cases and deaths now to those in March is pointless.
The word 'yet' suggests the future. Therefore I didn't miss the word 'yet'.. |
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I've not seen the figures but the rate that infections are increasing is the cause for concern. It didn't appear to be the case that we were at levels anything like the spring levels from a brief radio piece I heard.
I think we can only rely on estimates for spring, as people were just told to stay home, unless needing hospital treatment. Our levels seem more even throughout age groups now.
I'm guessing in a small number of weeks we could get to the spring levels, if insufficient action is taken. We had numbers doubling every 3 days or so back then, currently about every week? |
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"I've not seen the figures but the rate that infections are increasing is the cause for concern. It didn't appear to be the case that we were at levels anything like the spring levels from a brief radio piece I heard.
I think we can only rely on estimates for spring, as people were just told to stay home, unless needing hospital treatment. Our levels seem more even throughout age groups now.
I'm guessing in a small number of weeks we could get to the spring levels, if insufficient action is taken. We had numbers doubling every 3 days or so back then, currently about every week? "
Doubling every 3 days with limited testing. It could also be that back then, people who were showing symptoms panicked because they were concerned about dying so they got tested whereas now, many in certain age groups know they will be fine so don't bother getting tested. However, school kids with colds are told to get tested before they are allowed back in school.
We can't compare cases , deaths or rates now to those back in March. |
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"I've not seen the figures but the rate that infections are increasing is the cause for concern. It didn't appear to be the case that we were at levels anything like the spring levels from a brief radio piece I heard.
I think we can only rely on estimates for spring, as people were just told to stay home, unless needing hospital treatment. Our levels seem more even throughout age groups now.
I'm guessing in a small number of weeks we could get to the spring levels, if insufficient action is taken. We had numbers doubling every 3 days or so back then, currently about every week?
Doubling every 3 days with limited testing. It could also be that back then, people who were showing symptoms panicked because they were concerned about dying so they got tested whereas now, many in certain age groups know they will be fine so don't bother getting tested. However, school kids with colds are told to get tested before they are allowed back in school.
We can't compare cases , deaths or rates now to those back in March."
Thread title is about Feb not march |
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While the numbers are rising we have to look at the bigger picture here. As we go into the colder months people do die more on average to seasonal flu, pneumonia etc. What is need is the government to look at all sources from all professors and not just the advisers on the government pay roll. The quicker the doom merchants in Whitey (looks like the Death from Bill & Ted weirdly) and Vallance are sacked and we get a decent advisory board with differing points on how to deal with this and take all the the points and learn from other countries ways of handling this then plan accordingly. Until that hopefully happens stay safe and be careful. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"Of infections as we were in February ?
We didnt have a clue how many were infected until it was too late as we weren't testing for it.
"
That's why you should look at the percentage of tests that are positive and not totality.
The percentage today is far lower. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"I've not seen the figures but the rate that infections are increasing is the cause for concern. It didn't appear to be the case that we were at levels anything like the spring levels from a brief radio piece I heard.
I think we can only rely on estimates for spring, as people were just told to stay home, unless needing hospital treatment. Our levels seem more even throughout age groups now.
I'm guessing in a small number of weeks we could get to the spring levels, if insufficient action is taken. We had numbers doubling every 3 days or so back then, currently about every week? "
.
There is no exponential curve, it's linear, it doubles, it goes up a bit, it flattens out, it goes up a bit.
It's not exponential. |
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"I've not seen the figures but the rate that infections are increasing is the cause for concern. It didn't appear to be the case that we were at levels anything like the spring levels from a brief radio piece I heard.
I think we can only rely on estimates for spring, as people were just told to stay home, unless needing hospital treatment. Our levels seem more even throughout age groups now.
I'm guessing in a small number of weeks we could get to the spring levels, if insufficient action is taken. We had numbers doubling every 3 days or so back then, currently about every week? .
There is no exponential curve, it's linear, it doubles, it goes up a bit, it flattens out, it goes up a bit.
It's not exponential."
Exponential growth is a specific way that a quantity may increase over time. It occurs when the instantaneous rate of change of a quantity with respect to time is proportional to the quantity itself. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"I've not seen the figures but the rate that infections are increasing is the cause for concern. It didn't appear to be the case that we were at levels anything like the spring levels from a brief radio piece I heard.
I think we can only rely on estimates for spring, as people were just told to stay home, unless needing hospital treatment. Our levels seem more even throughout age groups now.
I'm guessing in a small number of weeks we could get to the spring levels, if insufficient action is taken. We had numbers doubling every 3 days or so back then, currently about every week? .
There is no exponential curve, it's linear, it doubles, it goes up a bit, it flattens out, it goes up a bit.
It's not exponential.
Exponential growth is a specific way that a quantity may increase over time. It occurs when the instantaneous rate of change of a quantity with respect to time is proportional to the quantity itself."
You can go and look at the graph yourself, it's on the government website, it's linear  |
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"I've not seen the figures but the rate that infections are increasing is the cause for concern. It didn't appear to be the case that we were at levels anything like the spring levels from a brief radio piece I heard.
I think we can only rely on estimates for spring, as people were just told to stay home, unless needing hospital treatment. Our levels seem more even throughout age groups now.
I'm guessing in a small number of weeks we could get to the spring levels, if insufficient action is taken. We had numbers doubling every 3 days or so back then, currently about every week? .
There is no exponential curve, it's linear, it doubles, it goes up a bit, it flattens out, it goes up a bit.
It's not exponential.
Exponential growth is a specific way that a quantity may increase over time. It occurs when the instantaneous rate of change of a quantity with respect to time is proportional to the quantity itself.
You can go and look at the graph yourself, it's on the government website, it's linear "
I'm not disagreeing with you, but the goverment said it's doubling every nine days, if that's true, its exponential growth so either they or their graph is wrong |
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"Of infections as we were in February ?
We didnt have a clue how many were infected until it was too late as we weren't testing for it.
"
We're still not testing properly so how would anyone know?
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"Of infections as we were in February ?
We didnt have a clue how many were infected until it was too late as we weren't testing for it.
We're still not testing properly so how would anyone know?
"
Agreed
We are at the same level as we where in June....they squandered the summer.
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"I've not seen the figures but the rate that infections are increasing is the cause for concern. It didn't appear to be the case that we were at levels anything like the spring levels from a brief radio piece I heard.
I think we can only rely on estimates for spring, as people were just told to stay home, unless needing hospital treatment. Our levels seem more even throughout age groups now.
I'm guessing in a small number of weeks we could get to the spring levels, if insufficient action is taken. We had numbers doubling every 3 days or so back then, currently about every week?
Doubling every 3 days with limited testing. It could also be that back then, people who were showing symptoms panicked because they were concerned about dying so they got tested whereas now, many in certain age groups know they will be fine so don't bother getting tested. However, school kids with colds are told to get tested before they are allowed back in school.
We can't compare cases , deaths or rates now to those back in March.
Thread title is about Feb not march"
Really? Is that the best reply you have? No wonder we're f**ked up in this country... |
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