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R Number is officially above 1
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Reported this morning on bbc news
Infections are doubling every 7 to 10 days
New scientist reports that with the time lag, the R number looks more like 1.7, we were at 3 before lockdown started in march.
Social distance, wash your hands and wear a face coverings indoors (if not exempt)
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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The numbers for in and around where i live are still low however at weekends in particular a seaside town such as (for example) Whitstable is more tightly packed than a can of sardines.
Any spike around here is going to come from DFL’s and other migratory numpties.
There needs to be a countrywide travel limit of (for example) 30 miles from your own main residence. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"The numbers for in and around where i live are still low however at weekends in particular a seaside town such as (for example) Whitstable is more tightly packed than a can of sardines.
Any spike around here is going to come from DFL’s and other migratory numpties.
There needs to be a countrywide travel limit of (for example) 30 miles from your own main residence."
That would work for all the people who work away from home  |
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"Those nightingale hospitals some slated here a few weeks ago are preparing to reopen
Makes you think .... Or it bloody well should."
They weren't needed in March so this just sounds like government scaremongering. |
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It would be easy for the doubling to become more frequent as, presumably most of the drivers for it are still around and possibly unlikely to stop just because of the rule of 6.
The key measures they are introducing - 6 people max - won't apply in pubs, work places and who is counting how many are visiting a home? Plus there's likely to be minimal enforcement, except for the raves and gatherings like those, of very high volumes of people.
We're a long way from March but could easily regain a rapidly escalating infection level, whilst people perceive themselves as beyond the dangerous stages of the crisis.
The measure that worked most was lockdown and the local lighter lockdowns are still quite relaxed.
I sense it's difficult to know at present how it's going to develop in the shorter term, whilst we probably know it's going to be higher volumes in winter. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"The numbers for in and around where i live are still low however at weekends in particular a seaside town such as (for example) Whitstable is more tightly packed than a can of sardines.
Any spike around here is going to come from DFL’s and other migratory numpties.
There needs to be a countrywide travel limit of (for example) 30 miles from your own main residence."
What's dfl? |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"Those nightingale hospitals some slated here a few weeks ago are preparing to reopen
Makes you think .... Or it bloody well should."
 
I think the tin foil hat brigade will only be happy when all the Nightingales are full. |
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By *aver999Couple
over a year ago
East Mids |
"Those nightingale hospitals some slated here a few weeks ago are preparing to reopen
Makes you think .... Or it bloody well should.
They weren't needed in March so this just sounds like government scaremongering. "
Maybe but the annual nhs winter crises hasn't kicked in yet ... |
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We have a massive problem with the false positive rate (FPR) of COVID-19 tests. The authorities acknowledge no FPR, so the positive test results are not corrected for false positives and that is proving to be a big problem.
Because professor Ferguson’s original model assumed no natural immunity (there is) and that all socialisation is homogenous (it isn’t), his model doesn’t get to herd immunity until 81% of the population has been infected. All the evidence since as far back as February and the Diamond Princess cruise ship study indicated that effective herd immunity is occurring around a 20-25% infection rate; but the models have not been updated to any of the real world data yet. This is also why these models continue to report an R of = 1.0 (growth) when the data on hospital admissions and deaths, suggest the R has been 0.3-0.6 (steadily declining) since March.
In fact as illogical as it sounds, it can be argued scientifically, the more young people who now get CV19 before the winter season to build up immunity in the younger population (who are mostly unaffected) the better. As this will stop the spread throughout the rest of the elderly population.
For the umpteenth time cases do not matter.
There are now, on any average day, far more deaths from suicide than CV19. |
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By *litterbabeWoman
over a year ago
hiding from cock pics. |
"We have a massive problem with the false positive rate (FPR) of COVID-19 tests. The authorities acknowledge no FPR, so the positive test results are not corrected for false positives and that is proving to be a big problem.
Because professor Ferguson’s original model assumed no natural immunity (there is) and that all socialisation is homogenous (it isn’t), his model doesn’t get to herd immunity until 81% of the population has been infected. All the evidence since as far back as February and the Diamond Princess cruise ship study indicated that effective herd immunity is occurring around a 20-25% infection rate; but the models have not been updated to any of the real world data yet. This is also why these models continue to report an R of = 1.0 (growth) when the data on hospital admissions and deaths, suggest the R has been 0.3-0.6 (steadily declining) since March.
In fact as illogical as it sounds, it can be argued scientifically, the more young people who now get CV19 before the winter season to build up immunity in the younger population (who are mostly unaffected) the better. As this will stop the spread throughout the rest of the elderly population.
For the umpteenth time cases do not matter.
There are now, on any average day, far more deaths from suicide than CV19."
that certainly is very interesting reading and has brought points to my attention that I was unaware of. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
"The numbers for in and around where i live are still low however at weekends in particular a seaside town such as (for example) Whitstable is more tightly packed than a can of sardines.
Any spike around here is going to come from DFL’s and other migratory numpties.
There needs to be a countrywide travel limit of (for example) 30 miles from your own main residence."
Hence I don't venture out. Not even to Sundowners a popular place for many to gather. Nor the beach unless it's to pick up the rubbish even that is riddled with covid droplets left on our beaches. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"The numbers for in and around where i live are still low however at weekends in particular a seaside town such as (for example) Whitstable is more tightly packed than a can of sardines.
Any spike around here is going to come from DFL’s and other migratory numpties.
There needs to be a countrywide travel limit of (for example) 30 miles from your own main residence.
Hence I don't venture out. Not even to Sundowners a popular place for many to gather. Nor the beach unless it's to pick up the rubbish even that is riddled with covid droplets left on our beaches. "
Your beaches ? |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
"We have a massive problem with the false positive rate (FPR) of COVID-19 tests. The authorities acknowledge no FPR, so the positive test results are not corrected for false positives and that is proving to be a big problem.
Because professor Ferguson’s original model assumed no natural immunity (there is) and that all socialisation is homogenous (it isn’t), his model doesn’t get to herd immunity until 81% of the population has been infected. All the evidence since as far back as February and the Diamond Princess cruise ship study indicated that effective herd immunity is occurring around a 20-25% infection rate; but the models have not been updated to any of the real world data yet. This is also why these models continue to report an R of = 1.0 (growth) when the data on hospital admissions and deaths, suggest the R has been 0.3-0.6 (steadily declining) since March.
In fact as illogical as it sounds, it can be argued scientifically, the more young people who now get CV19 before the winter season to build up immunity in the younger population (who are mostly unaffected) the better. As this will stop the spread throughout the rest of the elderly population.
For the umpteenth time cases do not matter.
There are now, on any average day, far more deaths from suicide than CV19."
Correct. |
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