FabSwingers.com > Forums > Virus > Don't be negative think positive
Don't be negative think positive
Jump to: Newest in thread
 |
By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago
|
Recent reports of the number of positive cases have been highlighted in the media. What they haven't also highlighted is the increase in testing. So when they say the number of cases is now back to such and such a date, they don't also compare with the number of tests done on that date.
This is a point made by Prof Carl Heneghan, who heads the centre for evidence-based medicine at Oxford University.
He says it is essential to adjust for tests being done and is concerned about what he calls "poor interpretation" of data.
Covid cases, he says, simply aren't rising in any meaningful sense.
And even if you just look at the raw number of positive tests, it is worth remembering that the figures seen are way way below what was happening during the peak when an estimated 100,000 infections a day were being seen.
|
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
Whilst you are right that the infection rate is a lot lower than the peak. Randomised testing is done on a sample of the whole population so they have an idea of the actual infection rate regardless of the number of actual tests carried out. |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
|
By *ilth500Man
over a year ago
Merseyside |
"Recent reports of the number of positive cases have been highlighted in the media. What they haven't also highlighted is the increase in testing. So when they say the number of cases is now back to such and such a date, they don't also compare with the number of tests done on that date.
This is a point made by Prof Carl Heneghan, who heads the centre for evidence-based medicine at Oxford University.
He says it is essential to adjust for tests being done and is concerned about what he calls "poor interpretation" of data.
Covid cases, he says, simply aren't rising in any meaningful sense.
And even if you just look at the raw number of positive tests, it is worth remembering that the figures seen are way way below what was happening during the peak when an estimated 100,000 infections a day were being seen.
"
also the current death and hospitalisation rates are really positive too  |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
"Recent reports of the number of positive cases have been highlighted in the media. What they haven't also highlighted is the increase in testing. So when they say the number of cases is now back to such and such a date, they don't also compare with the number of tests done on that date.
This is a point made by Prof Carl Heneghan, who heads the centre for evidence-based medicine at Oxford University.
He says it is essential to adjust for tests being done and is concerned about what he calls "poor interpretation" of data.
Covid cases, he says, simply aren't rising in any meaningful sense.
And even if you just look at the raw number of positive tests, it is worth remembering that the figures seen are way way below what was happening during the peak when an estimated 100,000 infections a day were being seen.
"
Optimism good, ok, but
The positive tests have been increasing for 7 days in a row from a base around 500 a day to almost 1000
There's room for hope but certainly not room for complacency. |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
|
By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago
|
"Recent reports of the number of positive cases have been highlighted in the media. What they haven't also highlighted is the increase in testing. So when they say the number of cases is now back to such and such a date, they don't also compare with the number of tests done on that date.
This is a point made by Prof Carl Heneghan, who heads the centre for evidence-based medicine at Oxford University.
He says it is essential to adjust for tests being done and is concerned about what he calls "poor interpretation" of data.
Covid cases, he says, simply aren't rising in any meaningful sense.
And even if you just look at the raw number of positive tests, it is worth remembering that the figures seen are way way below what was happening during the peak when an estimated 100,000 infections a day were being seen.
Optimism good, ok, but
The positive tests have been increasing for 7 days in a row from a base around 500 a day to almost 1000
There's room for hope but certainly not room for complacency."
Again you are making the same mistake of just going off the number of positive tests without also including the number of tests. |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
"Recent reports of the number of positive cases have been highlighted in the media. What they haven't also highlighted is the increase in testing. So when they say the number of cases is now back to such and such a date, they don't also compare with the number of tests done on that date.
This is a point made by Prof Carl Heneghan, who heads the centre for evidence-based medicine at Oxford University.
He says it is essential to adjust for tests being done and is concerned about what he calls "poor interpretation" of data.
Covid cases, he says, simply aren't rising in any meaningful sense.
And even if you just look at the raw number of positive tests, it is worth remembering that the figures seen are way way below what was happening during the peak when an estimated 100,000 infections a day were being seen.
Optimism good, ok, but
The positive tests have been increasing for 7 days in a row from a base around 500 a day to almost 1000
There's room for hope but certainly not room for complacency.
Again you are making the same mistake of just going off the number of positive tests without also including the number of tests. "
Has the number of tests more than doubled in a week ??
Maybe that's the answer ... But ... |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
|
By *atEvolutionCouple
over a year ago
atlantisEVOLUTION Swingers Club. Stoke |
The infection rate has had spikes here and there all over the country. (indeed the World) But there is a double message here . . .
1. More people infected.
1a. The rise in infections may be that more people are being Tested or Lockdown Easing. More likely it's Both.
2. Less people dying.
2a Less people dying and regardless of how they are staying alive by good medicine or self-healing it's a double-positive in that and simply put . . .
. . . 'Less people are dying from a greater number of Infections'
|
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
|
By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
"The infection rate has had spikes here and there all over the country. (indeed the World) But there is a double message here . . .
1. More people infected.
1a. The rise in infections may be that more people are being Tested or Lockdown Easing. More likely it's Both.
2. Less people dying.
2a Less people dying and regardless of how they are staying alive by good medicine or self-healing it's a double-positive in that and simply put . . .
. . . 'Less people are dying from a greater
number of Infections'
"
wise up! That would mean herd immunity!! |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
|
By *atEvolutionCouple
over a year ago
atlantisEVOLUTION Swingers Club. Stoke |
"The infection rate has had spikes here and there all over the country. (indeed the World) But there is a double message here . . .
1. More people infected.
1a. The rise in infections may be that more people are being Tested or Lockdown Easing. More likely it's Both.
2. Less people dying.
2a Less people dying and regardless of how they are staying alive by good medicine or self-healing it's a double-positive in that and simply put . . .
. . . 'Less people are dying from a greater
number of Infections'
wise up! That would mean herd immunity!!"
Wise up - think I know that already !!!  |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
|
By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
"The infection rate has had spikes here and there all over the country. (indeed the World) But there is a double message here . . .
1. More people infected.
1a. The rise in infections may be that more people are being Tested or Lockdown Easing. More likely it's Both.
2. Less people dying.
2a Less people dying and regardless of how they are staying alive by good medicine or self-healing it's a double-positive in that and simply put . . .
. . . 'Less people are dying from a greater
number of Infections'
wise up! That would mean herd immunity!!
Wise up - think I know that already !!! "
yeah but da experts said on the news one time that herd immunity......something something  |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
|
By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
Let’s look at some stats (all from gov.uk)
On 1st August the 7 day average of daily tests was 171692 And the 7 day average of new cases was 802 per day. That gives a positive test rate of 0.47%.
Two weeks early the rates were 142137 and 635 respectively giving a positive test rate of 0.45%.
All this shows is that the positive test rate has hardly changed (a couple of weeks earlier it was 0.7%).
What is does show is that more people are showing a positive test week on week. Whether that is due to more tests so more people being found or more people actually being infected is unknown. You could argue that with track and trace the tests are more focussed on likely infected people so it is good news that the rate isn’t rising but you could also argue that most of the tests are routing tests of the same people week after week so they should be negative.
If you want something more concrete take a look at the gov.uk Covid dashboard. There is a link to a map that shows actual cases in all areas over the latest week. You can’t change the date but there are more blue areas this week than previous weeks.
Basically more positive tests are occurring. Interpret that how you like but fact it’s still here.
Hospital admissions and deaths are a better indicator of how bad things are today. |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
|
By *eeleyWoman
over a year ago
Dudley |
"Recent reports of the number of positive cases have been highlighted in the media. What they haven't also highlighted is the increase in testing. So when they say the number of cases is now back to such and such a date, they don't also compare with the number of tests done on that date.
This is a point made by Prof Carl Heneghan, who heads the centre for evidence-based medicine at Oxford University.
He says it is essential to adjust for tests being done and is concerned about what he calls "poor interpretation" of data.
Covid cases, he says, simply aren't rising in any meaningful sense.
And even if you just look at the raw number of positive tests, it is worth remembering that the figures seen are way way below what was happening during the peak when an estimated 100,000 infections a day were being seen.
Optimism good, ok, but
The positive tests have been increasing for 7 days in a row from a base around 500 a day to almost 1000
There's room for hope but certainly not room for complacency."
Positive cases were always going to rise as more tests were done and lockdown was eased, the figures that are the most important are hospitalisations and deaths which are still heading in the right direction. The only solution to a virus like this is herd immunity via vaccine or natural immunity. |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
"Recent reports of the number of positive cases have been highlighted in the media. What they haven't also highlighted is the increase in testing. So when they say the number of cases is now back to such and such a date, they don't also compare with the number of tests done on that date.
This is a point made by Prof Carl Heneghan, who heads the centre for evidence-based medicine at Oxford University.
He says it is essential to adjust for tests being done and is concerned about what he calls "poor interpretation" of data.
Covid cases, he says, simply aren't rising in any meaningful sense.
And even if you just look at the raw number of positive tests, it is worth remembering that the figures seen are way way below what was happening during the peak when an estimated 100,000 infections a day were being seen.
Optimism good, ok, but
The positive tests have been increasing for 7 days in a row from a base around 500 a day to almost 1000
There's room for hope but certainly not room for complacency.
Positive cases were always going to rise as more tests were done and lockdown was eased, the figures that are the most important are hospitalisations and deaths which are still heading in the right direction. The only solution to a virus like this is herd immunity via vaccine or natural immunity. "
The government have access to random tests, not the testing data published, in the population so they know more accurately the infection rate. They are saying that the infection rate is slowly increasing. This is backed up by the published data too, as yes testing has increased from maybe a couple of months ago but testing is not at its peak. Testing over the last couple of weeks has been pretty constant so increased tests are not the cause of the slight increase in infections. Its is still pretty low so that is good news but no one should be complacent. |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
They set up extra testing centres where they think there is a spike meaning more testing takes place in that area. They then get more positive tests in that area and call it a spike. It's a self fulfilling prophecy. |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
As the saying goes 'There are lies, bloody lies and statistics'.
There are so many different numbers and different ways of interpreting what they mean. I think two facts are clear-
1. We went into lockdown too late and many lives were lost unneccesarily.
2. Due to economic pressures, we did not come gradually out of lockdown risking an increase in cases.
While we are seeing some spikes, it's far from a second wave. But there are risks of escalation - people are on summer holidays and may not be distancing, leading to additional transmission. Schools and universities will be opening in September and they're another potential flash point. |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
|
By *eeleyWoman
over a year ago
Dudley |
"As the saying goes 'There are lies, bloody lies and statistics'.
There are so many different numbers and different ways of interpreting what they mean. I think two facts are clear-
1. We went into lockdown too late and many lives were lost unneccesarily.
2. Due to economic pressures, we did not come gradually out of lockdown risking an increase in cases.
While we are seeing some spikes, it's far from a second wave. But there are risks of escalation - people are on summer holidays and may not be distancing, leading to additional transmission. Schools and universities will be opening in September and they're another potential flash point. "
Opinions aren't facts.
If we had gone into lockdown earlier there would have been even more economic pressure on the country, we also have been coming out of lockdown gradually, if we weren't, everything would have opened up in one go. One thing I think they should have done earlier is close our borders, we should have done that as soon as covid started spreading outside China. |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
|
By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago
|
Apparently if you point out facts from Oxford university then you are not taking this seriously and taking risks according to some who message me.
I’ve been in a supermarket once since lockdown and wore a mask. I have kept my distance and practiced good hand hygiene as I always have.
Welcome to the internet where apparently some think they know how you live your life. |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
|
By *eeleyWoman
over a year ago
Dudley |
"Don't need numbers to know this is, a mess
It's improving, that's positive.
Just curious about daily hospital admissions...
Government dashboard hasn't updated since July 22nd that I can see"
https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/ |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
|
By *eeleyWoman
over a year ago
Dudley |
"Don't need numbers to know this is, a mess
It's improving, that's positive.
Just curious about daily hospital admissions...
Government dashboard hasn't updated since July 22nd that I can see
https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/"
That is only up to the 5th July. |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
"Recent reports of the number of positive cases have been highlighted in the media. What they haven't also highlighted is the increase in testing. So when they say the number of cases is now back to such and such a date, they don't also compare with the number of tests done on that date.
This is a point made by Prof Carl Heneghan, who heads the centre for evidence-based medicine at Oxford University.
He says it is essential to adjust for tests being done and is concerned about what he calls "poor interpretation" of data.
Covid cases, he says, simply aren't rising in any meaningful sense.
And even if you just look at the raw number of positive tests, it is worth remembering that the figures seen are way way below what was happening during the peak when an estimated 100,000 infections a day were being seen.
"
Sounds like the article I read on the BBC earlier today. He also points out that not only are the tests carried out much higher but now they are targeted to places that are having outbreaks so higher positive tests are highly likely. Although of course we all want no positive tests its worth saying that its better to find as many positive people as possible to get them isolated rather than spreading it |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
|
By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago
|
"Recent reports of the number of positive cases have been highlighted in the media. What they haven't also highlighted is the increase in testing. So when they say the number of cases is now back to such and such a date, they don't also compare with the number of tests done on that date.
This is a point made by Prof Carl Heneghan, who heads the centre for evidence-based medicine at Oxford University.
He says it is essential to adjust for tests being done and is concerned about what he calls "poor interpretation" of data.
Covid cases, he says, simply aren't rising in any meaningful sense.
And even if you just look at the raw number of positive tests, it is worth remembering that the figures seen are way way below what was happening during the peak when an estimated 100,000 infections a day were being seen.
Sounds like the article I read on the BBC earlier today. He also points out that not only are the tests carried out much higher but now they are targeted to places that are having outbreaks so higher positive tests are highly likely. Although of course we all want no positive tests its worth saying that its better to find as many positive people as possible to get them isolated rather than spreading it"
I’ve been impressed with Carl Heneghan from the beginning of this pandemic.
|
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
» Add a new message to this topic
