I think the R number was just publicity nonsense anyway.
Although the formula is correct, you have to put accurate numbers into it to get a meaningful number out of it, and accuracy has repeatedly been shown to be lacking. |
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When the USA had 1000+ deaths a day their new cases were 30-35,000 a day
With lockdowns eased US new cases in last week have been 40k plus a day, 47K yesterday alone and now their retracting on easing lockdowns
Crowded beaches and pubs open next week UK can look forward to mirroring USA and we will be back on lockdown by September.
Thank you Boris ‘ I visited a hospital ward of covid patients and shook hands with everyone’ before catching it himself. |
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By *arksxMan
over a year ago
Leicester / London |
"I think the R number was just publicity nonsense anyway.
Although the formula is correct, you have to put accurate numbers into it to get a meaningful number out of it, and accuracy has repeatedly been shown to be lacking."
No surprise the government would turn trustrd science into political spin.
They abandoned the idea of track and trace that is required to measure ro accurately before they even implemented it.
Vietnam a third world country....thars I spitting distance of China and infrastructure was bombed to shit less than 40 years ago has a had a better track and trace system than the UK.
Let that sink in
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When you get to low levels the R number is a bit meaningless - outbreaks in small geographical areas eg the factory in Germany, can make it shoot up and then drop like a stone afterwards when the national picture remains the same
Trends in your things like hospital admissions, in patient numbers, average positive tests per week etc are probably the best real life picture of what the R was a week to 10 days ago |
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"I dont even know what the R value means.
Yep Ive buried myhead in the sand.
But stayed 2mtrs apart only gone out when needed .. Its a pity that more people in liverpool are not like you,seems the dickheads managed to set fire to the liver building last night and they were supposed to be celebrating.  "
I'm sure that was Boris's fault wasn't it? Or was it Cummings... |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"I think the R number was just publicity nonsense anyway.
Although the formula is correct, you have to put accurate numbers into it to get a meaningful number out of it, and accuracy has repeatedly been shown to be lacking.
No surprise the government would turn trustrd science into political spin.
They abandoned the idea of track and trace that is required to measure ro accurately before they even implemented it.
Vietnam a third world country....thars I spitting distance of China and infrastructure was bombed to shit less than 40 years ago has a had a better track and trace system than the UK.
Let that sink in
"
Also a communist country in a part of the world that is very used to dealing with virulent forms of coronavirus.
That foes not detract from UK or US being appalling though. |
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Whilst we are better for testing than at the beginning for testing and also have some random testing underway to measure the levels of infection amongst people picked randomly from the population, we're still not in the strongest position to know precise infection. But we're improved and so can evaluate how things are changing. The lag from getting an infection until showing symptoms and the large numbers of people who never show symptoms means we won't get very fast numbers. But we can see from several data sets how things are progressing, we don't have to stay incredibly pessimistic.
What helped the UK stop the problem from being a fast overload of our health and other services was the control and limitations of people getting together en masse and for extended periods. Pubs and restaurants amongst other changes, will undo that and we are right to be cautious.
After wasting £millions on the track and trace app we'll have less information on where people are starting to acquire new infections over coming weeks  |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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I think everybody has forgotten the reason for lockdown. This virus is not going away. We may get a vaccine. We may not. There is no vaccine for SARS or MERS. Or indeed any other coronavirus that circulates every year. We will get another deadly coronavirus every few years due to an over populated planet.
The whole point was to slow the rate to get hospitals ready. At the same time, get the country ready for a new normal where we have to go about our lives as normal as possible. So going to beaches, going to work, going shopping is all OK. Look at Hong Kong. Very few deaths, low number of cases, life has carried on with minimal lockdown. Same is largely true for South Korea.
BUT. Face masks have to be made law. Track and trace has to work. We have to give up some civil liberties for the greater good. Without these things we will never get back to being close to normal. People have to be responsible.
Our government has failed us. Partly because the west has not dealt with anything similar for a very long time. Mostly because everybody in power is too worried about themselves being in power rather than the people they serve.
Also. Can you imagine vast numbers of the UK adhering to the new normal? We have a massive lack of respect problem in this country. Forget the litter issues in Dorset this week. Too many people in this country are like it all the time. Selfish slobs. I live in a national park and litter is a problem all year round.
Can you imagine civil liberties groups allowing even basic restrictions to become law? Even if it saves lives they dont care. You even had a top civil rights judge fighting for no lockdown due to restrictions on civil liberties. He was not alone. He would rather millions die to ensure no lockdown. |
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By *atEvolutionCouple
over a year ago
atlantisEVOLUTION Swingers Club. Stoke |
"
Can you imagine civil liberties groups allowing even basic restrictions to become law? Even if it saves lives they dont care. You even had a top civil rights judge fighting for no lockdown due to restrictions on civil liberties. He was not alone. He would rather millions die to ensure no lockdown."
We have always had Public Health Restriction Powers . . .
Public Health Act 1936
Allows any authorised officer or authority to quarantine anyone, and building or vessel thought to have a communicable disease.
The current new law just added particular emergency needs.
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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People don't know how to manage uncertainty.
Politics knows even less how to deal with it due to decisive decisions being demanded from ignorant, often incompetent politicians who've ignored the various warnings given to them
The scientists are then expected to provide magical instant and accurate data on something that's never been seen before, make assumptions they don't want to, and policy is then enacted.
Now to their credit the government has tried to take a tentative stance by saying they'll change policy as the data changes, but that hardly avoids any bias toward 'kickstarting the economy' over making any real rational risk assesments.
But because some people see uncertainty as weakness, they use that as an excuse to make broad, conpiratorial, dismissive,ignorant claims about the facts and usually get their information from blogs and right-wing news sources.
I'm sure you've seen a few of THOSE people trotting out their cynicsm continually at every chance in here.
The r0 number is going to be relatively accurate, but ultimately it's as accurate as we can probably make it, and regardless it's the only thing we've got to go on in terms of any measure of r0.
So with literally thousands swamping the various beaches, sharing toilets, queuing for ice creams, touching all manner of things and generally acting as if nothing is wrong, you'll see the result of that in about 2 weeks if the data spikes again.
Again the numbers we have, are for a country that has mostly been in constant lockdown. So for all the talk of "over reacting", just remember this was the MINIMUM outcome from all of this and the way we chose to deal with it.
There is no reason to think it wouldn't have been worse if we'd let everyone visit the pubs/clubs/cinemas without any controls.
No-one knew how bad it might get, no-one still knows the full ecology of the virus. It's not and never will be #justtheflu. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"I think the R number was just publicity nonsense anyway.
Although the formula is correct, you have to put accurate numbers into it to get a meaningful number out of it, and accuracy has repeatedly been shown to be lacking."
 |
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By *estivalMan
over a year ago
borehamwood |
"I think the R number was just publicity nonsense anyway.
Although the formula is correct, you have to put accurate numbers into it to get a meaningful number out of it, and accuracy has repeatedly been shown to be lacking.
No surprise the government would turn trustrd science into political spin.
They abandoned the idea of track and trace that is required to measure ro accurately before they even implemented it.
Vietnam a third world country....thars I spitting distance of China and infrastructure was bombed to shit less than 40 years ago has a had a better track and trace system than the UK.
Let that sink in
"
probably because vietnam is so close to china they have been dealing with the shit coming out of there for years.most of em round china were on tip of it straight away.and wasnt vietnam one of the countrys that done there own thing and ignored the W.H.O |
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By *exy7Man
over a year ago
Bristol |
"I suppose now the daily prime minister's questions has finished we'll have to find out for ourselves. Germanies has gone up to 2. something someone said the other day  "
Has it, really? Or is it in some specific areas? |
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WHO puts the UK R value at 0.92 as of yesterday. Its hovered between 0.88 and 0.94 in the last week.
A look at the graph of new cases in the US vs a similar graph for any European country including Britain shows how bad the US is doing. Probably because their president is insane. |
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By *exy7Man
over a year ago
Bristol |
"I suspect that the community R value is a lot less than the gov are saying or July 4th wouldn't be going ahead, they won't give the community R rate in an attempt of people control. "
I’d be surprised. This gvt never lies. |
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"WHO puts the UK R value at 0.92 as of yesterday. Its hovered between 0.88 and 0.94 in the last week.
A look at the graph of new cases in the US vs a similar graph for any European country including Britain shows how bad the US is doing. Probably because their president is insane. "
Much of the US problem driven from on high has been arising from the frantic push to get businesses and public life open again. Many states, including Texas, have realised that the virus spirals out of control when large numbers of people get back together again. Often relaxed environments, such as work places, including meat and food processing plants, bars, beach and holiday venues are spurring growth, if prevention measures are poor or near impossible.
4th July we have lots of things occurred in quick succession. It's natural to assume that many will pass this on without knowing they had it. Younger people especially often get no symptoms but want to socialise naturally  |
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"I think the R number was just publicity nonsense anyway.
Although the formula is correct, you have to put accurate numbers into it to get a meaningful number out of it, and accuracy has repeatedly been shown to be lacking."
Totally agree. Without an accurate representation of how many are infected nationwide (numbers currently only include those who tested positive) it would be impossible to calculate.
If i get infected but stay at home isolating with 3 others in my home, that's 4 cases never logged if they were all consequently infected too.
On the other hand, some are told they're infected without having been tested (happened to my friend and her family). If such 'cases' are added to the count, again the R score becomes inaccurate. |
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By *mmabluTV/TS
over a year ago
upton wirral |
"I think the R number was just publicity nonsense anyway.
Although the formula is correct, you have to put accurate numbers into it to get a meaningful number out of it, and accuracy has repeatedly been shown to be lacking."
For me it is the R value that will decide when I can meet again,it is the best guide there is in my view |
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There's a lot of misinformation about the states, per capita deaths are 7th in the world.
Case numbers are going up because basically they are giving out two test kits with every box of cereal,and it seems to be the Young ones having it with no symptoms, deaths are going down, covid ICU are down, Texas ICUs are 80% other than covid, Fauci conveniently went MIA for 3 weeks to facilitate the BLM riots, now he's back grandstanding again.... politics101 |
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"I suppose now the daily prime minister's questions has finished we'll have to find out for ourselves."
Most of the time it was just confirming what the press had already announced he was going to say.
What started as informative just descended into tedious repetition. |
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