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Cases dropping too quick for vaccine
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"Is this a wind up?  "
Nope. If there aren't enough people being infected, they won't know if the ones receiving the vaccine aren't getting it because of the vaccine, or because no one is infecting them. |
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There are options to facilitate trial patticipants getting the vaccine, which may only be done for those with impeccable health and who are younger. This can avoid the higher likelihood of anyone who did acquire the virus from having severe symptoms or possible death. It doesn't eradicate the possibility of death but reduces the risk levels.
It may seem unorthodox and totally inappropriate, not to mention inhumane but will be considered. Participants would also be given comprehensive medical supervision.
Many volunteers would be willing, I'd assume.
Obviously participants could be relocated to higher risk areas but the UK isn't a really low risk place today - though we hope it improves by the time trials develop further. |
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By *69BANMan
over a year ago
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"Apparently because cases are dropping rapidly they might not have enough people to test the vaccine on."
That's not how vaccines work! You don't need SARS-2 positive people to test it as vaccines are one of the few medical treatments given to healthy people. You're monitoring the immune response and whether it works consistently, then once into phase III looking at whether the vaccine generates a level of immunity that would prevent disease, and provide evidence that the vaccine can actually reduce the number of cases. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"Apparently because cases are dropping rapidly they might not have enough people to test the vaccine on.
That's not how vaccines work! You don't need SARS-2 positive people to test it as vaccines are one of the few medical treatments given to healthy people. You're monitoring the immune response and whether it works consistently, then once into phase III looking at whether the vaccine generates a level of immunity that would prevent disease, and provide evidence that the vaccine can actually reduce the number of cases."
Lets say 1000 volunteers for trial. 500 get vaccine, 500 placebo. 3 months later check how many of each group have caught virus. If numbers much lower or zero in vaccine group and much higher in placebo group then it works.
If the infection level in the country drops too low then the statistical difference between tge two groups will not be enough to come to a conclusion. Maybe none of the 1000 get it at all.
All that has done is wasted 3 months. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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It's probably all the dry hot weather we are getting. The virus droplets in our bodily fluids are not surviving for long enough. Just a though. Forecast for next couple of weeks looks good too, My hunch is it is at best on it's way out or at worst subdued while we are all outdoors enjoying the fresh air. |
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By *69BANMan
over a year ago
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"Apparently because cases are dropping rapidly they might not have enough people to test the vaccine on.
That's not how vaccines work! You don't need SARS-2 positive people to test it as vaccines are one of the few medical treatments given to healthy people. You're monitoring the immune response and whether it works consistently, then once into phase III looking at whether the vaccine generates a level of immunity that would prevent disease, and provide evidence that the vaccine can actually reduce the number of cases.
Lets say 1000 volunteers for trial. 500 get vaccine, 500 placebo. 3 months later check how many of each group have caught virus. If numbers much lower or zero in vaccine group and much higher in placebo group then it works.
If the infection level in the country drops too low then the statistical difference between tge two groups will not be enough to come to a conclusion. Maybe none of the 1000 get it at all.
All that has done is wasted 3 months."
That's far too simplistic. You never wait to check data, esp in these circumstances. And clinical trials never look for just one outcome, they look at many. Your assumptions on what a trial involves are too far removed from what actually takes place. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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There is a delay between lage gatherings and potential rises in cases.
But lets face it a lot will get it and not really feel it that much but the imune compromised are the ones who have to be careful.
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"Is this a wind up?
Nope. If there aren't enough people being infected, they won't know if the ones receiving the vaccine aren't getting it because of the vaccine, or because no one is infecting them."
this is what the guy doing the vaccine was saying. |
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