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By *abioMan
over a year ago
Newcastle and Gateshead |
"Of covid19 is currently 98.5%..  "
so the mortality rate is 1.5%
next time anyone makes the "no more dangerous than the flu" comparison... remind them the flu has a mortality rate of 0.1% |
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By *abioMan
over a year ago
Newcastle and Gateshead |
the 1.5% rate is the same rate of that in the US by the way....
so the university of washington reckon in the us around 200,000 people a week will catch covid under the relaxed guidelines.. so thats around 3,000 deaths per week.....
basically a 9/11 a week.... puts it into some sort of perspective.. |
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"Of covid19 is currently 98.5%..
so the mortality rate is 1.5%
next time anyone makes the "no more dangerous than the flu" comparison... remind them the flu has a mortality rate of 0.1% "
Exactly Coronavirus looks to be 15 times more deadly than the flu and much much more contagious. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Also very interesting is if you look at the completed cases data i.e the number of people who recovered v the number of people who died.
It's also worth noting unlike other faster acting viruses it takes 14 days + on average to die. So in terms of the active cases many are on day 1, day 2, day 7, and so on hence the active case figures are as high as they are.
CLOSED CASES
1,572,950
Cases which had an outcome:
1,307,594 (83%)
Recovered / Discharged
265,356 (17%)
Deaths
Also keep in mind once this thing is finally over someday the final data left will be closed cases.
Food for thought.
KJ x
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"The mortality rate will decrease as the number of tests and cases identified increases?
"
Well mortality rate in the Uk based on confirmed cases vs confirmed deaths is 30,076 / 201101
Which is a mortality rate of 14.95%
So for that to be 1.5% it means there must be an extra 10 time’s as people have been infected than we know about meaning there must have been 2,000,000 people infected already. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"The mortality rate will decrease as the number of tests and cases identified increases?
"
Yes the more people tested the lower the mortality rate will drop. |
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"Of covid19 is currently 98.5%..
so the mortality rate is 1.5%
next time anyone makes the "no more dangerous than the flu" comparison... remind them the flu has a mortality rate of 0.1%
Exactly Coronavirus looks to be 15 times more deadly than the flu and much much more contagious. "
What death figures would we see if no body had a flu vaccination |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"The mortality rate will decrease as the number of tests and cases identified increases?
this. We truly dont know as we havent been tasting everyone eith symptoms. Let alone the asymptomatic "
Germany tested far more....including asymptomatic. Hence the lower apparent death rate. The 1.5% figure comes from worldwide. Not all countries testing at German rate so again seems higher and may be higher than actual rate of all cases including asymptomatic. Could be closer to rate from Germany. Here will be higher as we have higher BAME population and their fatality rate is over 4 times higher than the native population.
My "guess" is by the time it's over could pan out about 1%?? |
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"The mortality rate will decrease as the number of tests and cases identified increases?
this. We truly dont know as we havent been tasting everyone eith symptoms. Let alone the asymptomatic "
Iceland have tested something like 15% of their population and found 1799 cases with a death toll of 10. Which is a mortality rate of 0.55% which so still 5 times more deadly than the flu.
San Marino on the other hand have tested 8% of their population and found 608 cases with a death tole of 41. Which is a mortality rate of 6.7%
Who currently estimate mortality rate to be around 3%.
Anything above 1% and with the ease this virus spreads should be alarming to everyone. Because flu is 0.1%.
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This virus doesn't just kill, it can attack vital organs, leaving permanent damage. The survival, non-death rate, may seem like many are now very well but it is just that. It can attack the circulatory system and heart, kidneys, brain and other organs, including the lungs that we know about. This widespread breakdown of the body, potentially cognitive decline too, sets this virus apart from others that we're more familiar with.
With abysmal testing rates here, we're in the dark about the levels of damage to the population. Greater reason for a slower release of the restrictions. |
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"This virus doesn't just kill, it can attack vital organs, leaving permanent damage. The survival, non-death rate, may seem like many are now very well but it is just that. It can attack the circulatory system and heart, kidneys, brain and other organs, including the lungs that we know about. This widespread breakdown of the body, potentially cognitive decline too, sets this virus apart from others that we're more familiar with.
With abysmal testing rates here, we're in the dark about the levels of damage to the population. Greater reason for a slower release of the restrictions. "
Exactly. There may be horrific long term effects for everyone that has been infected symptomatic or not. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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As a nurse I've worked on a covid ward I've seen more people die in the space of two months than I have in my career. I wish people would just stay at home. The more people stay at home the sooner the lockdown will end. I still see alot of young people out and about in groups and unfortunately these people are spreading the virus. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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To be a buzzkill...you know what has a 100% mortality rate...life does..
It's all a question of when not if...and I'd like that to be as far into the future as possible..and there same for all my family members.. |
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"Of covid19 is currently 98.5%..
so the mortality rate is 1.5%
next time anyone makes the "no more dangerous than the flu" comparison... remind them the flu has a mortality rate of 0.1% "
Studies are showing that between 50% and 75% show no symptoms at all. So the mortality rate will be a lot lower than 1.5% |
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"Of covid19 is currently 98.5%..
so the mortality rate is 1.5%
next time anyone makes the "no more dangerous than the flu" comparison... remind them the flu has a mortality rate of 0.1%
Studies are showing that between 50% and 75% show no symptoms at all. So the mortality rate will be a lot lower than 1.5%"
Show me a single creditable large sample study that shows this. |
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"Of covid19 is currently 98.5%..
so the mortality rate is 1.5%
next time anyone makes the "no more dangerous than the flu" comparison... remind them the flu has a mortality rate of 0.1%
Studies are showing that between 50% and 75% show no symptoms at all. So the mortality rate will be a lot lower than 1.5%
Show me a single creditable large sample study that shows this."
The German sample, I posted the link towards the top, shows 20% show no signs of the disease, but I assume things are evolving every day |
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By *69BANMan
over a year ago
Reading |
"Of covid19 is currently 98.5%..
so the mortality rate is 1.5%
next time anyone makes the "no more dangerous than the flu" comparison... remind them the flu has a mortality rate of 0.1%
Exactly Coronavirus looks to be 15 times more deadly than the flu and much much more contagious. "
That's not quite a correct comparison as the flu numbers are based on much greater knowledge and understanding of numbers infected, whereas with SARS-2 we only know positive cases from those tested. Once antibody testing ramps up alongside the current testing, then we will have a similar understanding of percentages for this virus. |
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"Of covid19 is currently 98.5%..
so the mortality rate is 1.5%
next time anyone makes the "no more dangerous than the flu" comparison... remind them the flu has a mortality rate of 0.1%
Studies are showing that between 50% and 75% show no symptoms at all. So the mortality rate will be a lot lower than 1.5%
Show me a single creditable large sample study that shows this.
The German sample, I posted the link towards the top, shows 20% show no signs of the disease, but I assume things are evolving every day "
I’ve read that, they where asymptotic at the time of the test, was there a follow up to assess if any of those asymptotic cases developed into symptomatic? Because detection early may transpire to symptomatic later down the line. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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I wonder why the survival rates doesnt make the headlines news as much, if you compare on what they report on it it doesnt get talked aboit the same way there. |
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By *sGivesWoodWoman
over a year ago
ST. AUSTELL, CORNWALL |
"The mortality rate will decrease as the number of tests and cases identified increases?
this. We truly dont know as we havent been tasting everyone eith symptoms. Let alone the asymptomatic
Iceland have tested something like 15% of their population and found 1799 cases with a death toll of 10. Which is a mortality rate of 0.55% which so still 5 times more deadly than the flu.
San Marino on the other hand have tested 8% of their population and found 608 cases with a death tole of 41. Which is a mortality rate of 6.7%
Who currently estimate mortality rate to be around 3%.
Anything above 1% and with the ease this virus spreads should be alarming to everyone. Because flu is 0.1%.
"
Sars had a far higher mortality rate. No lockdown then. Why? |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"Sars had a far higher mortality rate. No lockdown then. Why? "
Well 1..it wasn't as contagious..so harder to go from person to person.. compared to Covid19... 2..SARS has a shorter contagious period..again limiting it's impact..
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"Sars had a far higher mortality rate. No lockdown then. Why?
Well 1..it wasn't as contagious..so harder to go from person to person.. compared to Covid19... 2..SARS has a shorter contagious period..again limiting it's impact..
"
Maybe the Chinese Wuhan lab got the formula right this time round |
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By *sGivesWoodWoman
over a year ago
ST. AUSTELL, CORNWALL |
"Sars had a far higher mortality rate. No lockdown then. Why?
Well 1..it wasn't as contagious..so harder to go from person to person.. compared to Covid19... 2..SARS has a shorter contagious period..again limiting it's impact..
Maybe the Chinese Wuhan lab got the formula right this time round "
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"Survival rate here in Fuerteventura is 100%. Around 125,000 inhabitants and no one has died. That deserves a headline, but media aren't interested in good news."
That is right it does. I guess such news doesnt sell as much as it should be.
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"Of covid19 is currently 98.5%.. "
So as a population of what 65 million people can someone please do the math.
If 98.5% die how many deaths will that be and over what timescale and what about re infection they still don't know.
Also secondary death's as a result of becoming sick recovering but contracting something else as a direct result.
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"Survival rate here in Fuerteventura is 100%. Around 125,000 inhabitants and no one has died. That deserves a headline, but media aren't interested in good news."
Question.
Has tourism stopped completely are they still allowing people to visit on holiday.
Also is this figure based on permanent residents?
Doesn't the island have a large transient workforce who are not permanent residents with the hotel industry,how many who have returned home have died?
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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The death rate average is 3.4% globally. The problem is that it average but it doesn't reflect based on age. The death rate for young people is below 1% then around 50 it goes above 1% then as you get to 60 it's almost 4% then as you get closer to 80 its around 15%. Another thing there no statistic of those who recovered who have now got permanent health damage. |
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"Survival rate here in Fuerteventura is 100%. Around 125,000 inhabitants and no one has died. That deserves a headline, but media aren't interested in good news.
Question.
Has tourism stopped completely are they still allowing people to visit on holiday.
Also is this figure based on permanent residents?
Doesn't the island have a large transient workforce who are not permanent residents with the hotel industry,how many who have returned home have died?
"
Tourism has stopped completely. Next week some hotels will open, but only for inhabitants of the island ( yes, some who live here, holiday here too!).
The number quoted is permanent residents and second home owners with names registered on Padron Municipal.
I doubt very much if any foreign workers have died after being here as there have only been 44 cases in total, most of those in the capital Puerto del Rosario which is not really a big tourist place, apart from cruise day trippers. Some sadly may have died after returning to their own country and catching it there. We have been extremely lucky here. |
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"Of covid19 is currently 98.5%..
So as a population of what 65 million people can someone please do the math.
If 98.5% die how many deaths will that be and over what timescale and what about re infection they still don't know.
Also secondary death's as a result of becoming sick recovering but contracting something else as a direct result.
"
1.5% of 65,000,000 is 975,000.
So if you if everyone was infected almost a million people would die if the mortality rate was 1.5% |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"Of covid19 is currently 98.5%..
so the mortality rate is 1.5%
next time anyone makes the "no more dangerous than the flu" comparison... remind them the flu has a mortality rate of 0.1% "
1.5% is 100,000 deaths in the UK when will we reach this number. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"1.5% of 65,000,000 is 975,000.
So if you if everyone was infected almost a million people would die if the mortality rate was 1.5%"
Think you'll find that if lockdown wasn't put in place the death toll would be well over 1 million..just by the fact the volume of cases would swamp the NHS.. meaning some that currently have been given the chance to recover..by ITU actions would get in to the rooms/wards.. resulting in death..plus all the other people blocked from accessing the hospital's by the volume of patients.. |
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"1.5% of 65,000,000 is 975,000.
So if you if everyone was infected almost a million people would die if the mortality rate was 1.5%
Think you'll find that if lockdown wasn't put in place the death toll would be well over 1 million..just by the fact the volume of cases would swamp the NHS.. meaning some that currently have been given the chance to recover..by ITU actions would get in to the rooms/wards.. resulting in death..plus all the other people blocked from accessing the hospital's by the volume of patients.."
I agree. I was just doing the maths for someone who asked. COVID is a truly horrible disease. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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Let's put it this way.....I'm a nurse....where I work it's almost a 50/50 chance of leaving the hospital alive if you're unwell enough with it to be admitted....why risk that!??? |
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"Of covid19 is currently 98.5%..
so the mortality rate is 1.5%
next time anyone makes the "no more dangerous than the flu" comparison... remind them the flu has a mortality rate of 0.1% 1.5% is 100,000 deaths in the UK when will we reach this number."
Where did you get 100,000 from? You are a factor of 10 out. |
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