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Ferguson’s model seems out by a factor of 13 in Sweden
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By *etsome OP Man
over a year ago
birmingham |
it seems that Ferguson’s model and his team are out by a factor of 13 - as pointed out by Toby Young - Uppsala University ran his model on their own country’s situation. It predicted 40,000 deaths - today there is about 3,000.......and that is with only a minimal lockdown don’t forget |
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I presume his model was if no lockdown restrictions or social distancing or hygiene measures were implemented. Sweden still has quite a lot of shutdown measures such as universities. The swedes have pretty much locked themselves down without the government forcing them. That said their death rates is much much higher than other Scandinavian countries. |
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I've not seen the report nor run the model. The model should have some aspects that can cross environments but it should also have specific local aspects that will vary by culture. The r value is of course critical |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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It's a good job he modelled it on the uk as 30000 deaths is far too many and I dread to think how high it would have been without the lockdown of pubs and sporting arena when it was really getting a hold... |
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By *abioMan
over a year ago
Newcastle and Gateshead |
"it seems that Ferguson’s model and his team are out by a factor of 13 - as pointed out by Toby Young - Uppsala University ran his model on their own country’s situation. It predicted 40,000 deaths - today there is about 3,000.......and that is with only a minimal lockdown don’t forget"
i think it is interesting that some people want to compare sweden to us to try and make the point.... when the more relatable comparison to make would be to compare sweden to its neighbours... norway, denmark, finland and iceland...
when you do that? how does sweden fair then?  |
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"it seems that Ferguson’s model and his team are out by a factor of 13 - as pointed out by Toby Young - Uppsala University ran his model on their own country’s situation. It predicted 40,000 deaths - today there is about 3,000.......and that is with only a minimal lockdown don’t forget"
The same Toby young who said spending money on saving the lives of old people was irresponsible? |
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"it seems that Ferguson’s model and his team are out by a factor of 13 - as pointed out by Toby Young - Uppsala University ran his model on their own country’s situation. It predicted 40,000 deaths - today there is about 3,000.......and that is with only a minimal lockdown don’t forget
i think it is interesting that some people want to compare sweden to us to try and make the point.... when the more relatable comparison to make would be to compare sweden to its neighbours... norway, denmark, finland and iceland...
when you do that? how does sweden fair then? "
Is that because of higher European percentage populations?
Sweden has far higher non white immigration than its neighbours.
But obviously lower than ours. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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His entire career is defined by ineptitude. Caused mayhem over foot and mouth, got SARS wrong and will be proved to have got this completely wrong also. Not a fan. |
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"it seems that Ferguson’s model and his team are out by a factor of 13 - as pointed out by Toby Young - Uppsala University ran his model on their own country’s situation. It predicted 40,000 deaths - today there is about 3,000.......and that is with only a minimal lockdown don’t forget
i think it is interesting that some people want to compare sweden to us to try and make the point.... when the more relatable comparison to make would be to compare sweden to its neighbours... norway, denmark, finland and iceland...
when you do that? how does sweden fair then? "
I am one of those people who likes to compare us and sweden but that is due to my scientific curiosity, I'm not looking at death numbers I'm looking at the infection graph, which is rather similar to us, it is a big experiment and people are more hardened to the fact so many people have and are dying, which is very sad but alas also human nature, we forget more than we remember, this weekend is a perfect example of that  |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"it seems that Ferguson’s model and his team are out by a factor of 13 - as pointed out by Toby Young - Uppsala University ran his model on their own country’s situation. It predicted 40,000 deaths - today there is about 3,000.......and that is with only a minimal lockdown don’t forget
i think it is interesting that some people want to compare sweden to us to try and make the point.... when the more relatable comparison to make would be to compare sweden to its neighbours... norway, denmark, finland and iceland...
when you do that? how does sweden fair then?
Is that because of higher European percentage populations?
Sweden has far higher non white immigration than its neighbours.
But obviously lower than ours. "
Why 'obviously'? |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"it seems that Ferguson’s model and his team are out by a factor of 13 - as pointed out by Toby Young - Uppsala University ran his model on their own country’s situation. It predicted 40,000 deaths - today there is about 3,000.......and that is with only a minimal lockdown don’t forget"
I wasn't aware he modelled Sweden, I thought he'd done the UK? |
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I really don't understand how people can blame someone for being wrong about the deaths.
Surely if he predicted A and the result was B and B turns out to be lower then that's a win right?
Ultimately it's not possible to completely control the virus it's not a clinical environment where it can be controlled, a new unknown virus that's proving to be tough and resilient saying someone predicted it's outcome wrong is not helpful at all.
I am sure that all the pandemics over the centuries mistakes have been made , one's which we hopefully learn from.
As for comparing UK to Sweden totally different and ridiculous, Sweden's geography,size, population and climate play's a part.
But what the fuck do I know I'm a shit for brain's carpenter. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"I really don't understand how people can blame someone for being wrong about the deaths.
Surely if he predicted A and the result was B and B turns out to be lower then that's a win right?
Ultimately it's not possible to completely control the virus it's not a clinical environment where it can be controlled, a new unknown virus that's proving to be tough and resilient saying someone predicted it's outcome wrong is not helpful at all.
I am sure that all the pandemics over the centuries mistakes have been made , one's which we hopefully learn from.
As for comparing UK to Sweden totally different and ridiculous, Sweden's geography,size, population and climate play's a part.
But what the fuck do I know I'm a shit for brain's carpenter."
It’s the fact that he has form for over doing things massively, and also that he has (or did have) massive influence. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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The swedes are far better at obeying rules than the UK so no surprise. That's why they haven't needed a full lockdown (which a lot of people are breaking rules of here anyway) |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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This whole Sweden thing is a bit odd. The Swedes tend to do what the government advises. We have this sort of faux rebelliousness against authority. I think it combines with the odd exceptionalism, probably a hangover from Empire and the thinking that we beat the Germans on our own. The result is people probably flocking out this weekend and a second wave. Might be wrong but that's how I've always viewed it. |
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By *asyukMan
over a year ago
West London |
"it seems that Ferguson’s model and his team are out by a factor of 13 - as pointed out by Toby Young - Uppsala University ran his model on their own country’s situation. It predicted 40,000 deaths - today there is about 3,000.......and that is with only a minimal lockdown don’t forget"
It's a UK model based on population densities and behaviours with no change in policy.
Why would it work in Sweden at all let alone after having changed policy and behaviour? |
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