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By *etsome OP Man
over a year ago
birmingham |
Let's be optimistic and say this lockdown takes 5-10 years for the economy to recover from. If there is another lockdown in Jan of Feb next year we would then be looking at 10-15 years before a recovery. Is there a limit on the number of lockdown we can financially support? |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"Let's be optimistic and say this lockdown takes 5-10 years for the economy to recover from. If there is another lockdown in Jan of Feb next year we would then be looking at 10-15 years before a recovery. Is there a limit on the number of lockdown we can financially support? "
Well this includes and calls for a whole lot more speculation 
Who knows when this one is ending, what it will cost us snd how long it will take to recover let alone a second or third |
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"Let's be optimistic and say this lockdown takes 5-10 years for the economy to recover from. If there is another lockdown in Jan of Feb next year we would then be looking at 10-15 years before a recovery. Is there a limit on the number of lockdown we can financially support? "
Maybe we should come out of this lockdown at the right time before worrying about anything else. |
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By *eeleyWoman
over a year ago
Dudley |
"Fuck it, let's all just jump off a cliff now 
If we are jumping off the cliff anyway, can we have a big party first? I will bring the cake "
As long as we all adhere to the social distancing guidelines. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"Fuck it, let's all just jump off a cliff now
If we are jumping off the cliff anyway, can we have a big party first? I will bring the cake
As long as we all adhere to the social distancing guidelines. "
We wont need to social distance if at the end of the party we are throwing ourselves off the cliff ... i thought we had a suicide pact going here  |
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By *eeleyWoman
over a year ago
Dudley |
"Fuck it, let's all just jump off a cliff now
If we are jumping off the cliff anyway, can we have a big party first? I will bring the cake
As long as we all adhere to the social distancing guidelines.
We wont need to social distance if at the end of the party we are throwing ourselves off the cliff ... i thought we had a suicide pact going here "
Ah true, let's go all out and make it an orgy! |
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"I'm more optimistic than that. I think people will be falling over themselves to get out and spend their money "
Some how don’t think that’s going to happen. Lots of people are not getting paid anything so how can they spend. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"I'm more optimistic than that. I think people will be falling over themselves to get out and spend their money Some how don’t think that’s going to happen. Lots of people are not getting paid anything so how can they spend. "
We probably have a different definition of lots
Yes there are gaps in the funding package but these people are definitely in the minority |
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"I'm more optimistic than that. I think people will be falling over themselves to get out and spend their money Some how don’t think that’s going to happen. Lots of people are not getting paid anything so how can they spend.
We probably have a different definition of lots
Yes there are gaps in the funding package but these people are definitely in the minority "
About 2% of businesses have been able to access loans and frankly the banks are taking the piss with the terms being offered. Not aiming this at you, but a lot of people on this forum are not very switched on to how little cash companies will have to pay wages very soon and that only means one thing. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"I'm more optimistic than that. I think people will be falling over themselves to get out and spend their money Some how don’t think that’s going to happen. Lots of people are not getting paid anything so how can they spend.
We probably have a different definition of lots
Yes there are gaps in the funding package but these people are definitely in the minority
About 2% of businesses have been able to access loans and frankly the banks are taking the piss with the terms being offered. Not aiming this at you, but a lot of people on this forum are not very switched on to how little cash companies will have to pay wages very soon and that only means one thing. "
I work in finance and have a good grasp of both economics and business financing models
I totally agree about the cashflow thing and it only meaning one thing for businesses, was having a similar discussion on another thread about travel companies just not having the cash for all these refunds people want just now despite it looking like their balance sheet is worth millions
My comment however was in response to “people are not getting paid” ... my understanding was furlough cash was imminent (like before the end of april), and self employed payments due by june at the latest (i dont see full lockdown lifting before then though we might have easing of it ) so i don’t see why people would not be getting their wages by the time we are back out unless I am missing something |
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"I'm more optimistic than that. I think people will be falling over themselves to get out and spend their money Some how don’t think that’s going to happen. Lots of people are not getting paid anything so how can they spend.
We probably have a different definition of lots
Yes there are gaps in the funding package but these people are definitely in the minority
About 2% of businesses have been able to access loans and frankly the banks are taking the piss with the terms being offered. Not aiming this at you, but a lot of people on this forum are not very switched on to how little cash companies will have to pay wages very soon and that only means one thing.
I work in finance and have a good grasp of both economics and business financing models
I totally agree about the cashflow thing and it only meaning one thing for businesses, was having a similar discussion on another thread about travel companies just not having the cash for all these refunds people want just now despite it looking like their balance sheet is worth millions
My comment however was in response to “people are not getting paid” ... my understanding was furlough cash was imminent (like before the end of april), and self employed payments due by june at the latest (i dont see full lockdown lifting before then though we might have easing of it ) so i don’t see why people would not be getting their wages by the time we are back out unless I am missing something "
So some companies folded last month rather than pay their workforce 20% to do nothing. Those people are waiting to hear about universal credit. There are about 5m self employed people who kind of have a bunch of shitty choices, particularly if they are set up in a limited company and get a large chunk of their income as dividends. So that's where I see people falling through the cracks. But the longer lockdown goes on then the more businesses will just fold and more and more people will fall into these categories. |
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The government may or may not have a plan, so I view it as probably better to wait to evaluate what's going to happen, pending them telling us what it is. I'm assuming that unemployment will be rising, as some steps at present are delaying people from likely becoming categorised that way. |
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"Let's be optimistic and say this lockdown takes 5-10 years for the economy to recover from. If there is another lockdown in Jan of Feb next year we would then be looking at 10-15 years before a recovery. Is there a limit on the number of lockdown we can financially support? "
What's the timescale for pessimists? |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"I'm more optimistic than that. I think people will be falling over themselves to get out and spend their money Some how don’t think that’s going to happen. Lots of people are not getting paid anything so how can they spend.
We probably have a different definition of lots
Yes there are gaps in the funding package but these people are definitely in the minority
About 2% of businesses have been able to access loans and frankly the banks are taking the piss with the terms being offered. Not aiming this at you, but a lot of people on this forum are not very switched on to how little cash companies will have to pay wages very soon and that only means one thing.
I work in finance and have a good grasp of both economics and business financing models
I totally agree about the cashflow thing and it only meaning one thing for businesses, was having a similar discussion on another thread about travel companies just not having the cash for all these refunds people want just now despite it looking like their balance sheet is worth millions
My comment however was in response to “people are not getting paid” ... my understanding was furlough cash was imminent (like before the end of april), and self employed payments due by june at the latest (i dont see full lockdown lifting before then though we might have easing of it ) so i don’t see why people would not be getting their wages by the time we are back out unless I am missing something "
I think the greater hardship is still to come. Right now the government is holding a lot of people’s hands but that can’t go on indefinitely. When the job retention scheme finally ends I think you will find a huge huge amount of people are made redundant. I am expecting record levels of unemployment, and I predict it will come quickly once employers can no longer access the job retention money. So in answer to the previous posters claim that a lot of people will be desperate to spend money, I agree and disagree. Yes that will be true for some, but also it will be balanced by the huge amount of people in dire straits. |
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