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Prediction.....
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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago
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Mondays figures for hospital deaths was lowest for a fortnight...though monday figures (for up to 5pm sunday) are often a little lower. Todays figures bounced back up, sadly, and any deaths are a tragedy.
Where do we think they could be tomorrow? Have we reached or passed peak? |
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"Mondays figures for hospital deaths was lowest for a fortnight...though monday figures (for up to 5pm sunday) are often a little lower. Todays figures bounced back up, sadly, and any deaths are a tragedy.
Where do we think they could be tomorrow? Have we reached or passed peak?"
We have a issue with how deaths are recorded, don't quote me on this but some of these deaths actually happened in march but wasn't registered, and the rest of them was over the last 5 days!!
So regards your question who knows !! How would they ever really actually know when the curve/peak would be based on it's not daily figures because they add on dates from 40days before.
Here's a thought or question virtual parliament.....today we had very few MPs in Westminster today and our government is currently thinking about lifting restrictions over time soy thought is this .......
We open back up as country or we are asked to return to work when every single MP sits in Westminster together and not apart, basically if it's good enough for us then it's good enough for them ..... discuss ?. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"Mondays figures for hospital deaths was lowest for a fortnight...though monday figures (for up to 5pm sunday) are often a little lower. Todays figures bounced back up, sadly, and any deaths are a tragedy.
Where do we think they could be tomorrow? Have we reached or passed peak?
We have a issue with how deaths are recorded, don't quote me on this but some of these deaths actually happened in march but wasn't registered, and the rest of them was over the last 5 days!!
So regards your question who knows !! How would they ever really actually know when the curve/peak would be based on it's not daily figures because they add on dates from 40days before.
Here's a thought or question virtual parliament.....today we had very few MPs in Westminster today and our government is currently thinking about lifting restrictions over time soy thought is this .......
We open back up as country or we are asked to return to work when every single MP sits in Westminster together and not apart, basically if it's good enough for us then it's good enough for them ..... discuss ?."
I really don't think we will be “open for business” as it were overnight , restrictions will be lifted slowly, people working in close proximity probably phased in depending on necessity of industry and possibility to work from home
But yeah when we are all fully back in the office i would expect them to all be back in parliament
That is if we ever go back to that, I think both companies and employees will have been forced to see some of the benefits of having capability for home working ... wouldnt surprise me at all if companies long term cut back on office space, start hotdesking with a less than once ratio with people rotating working from home periods to cut costs
Likewise if parliament finally see an opportunity to modernise away from that lets filter through a corridor for yes or no nonsense it wouldn’t be a bad thing |
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"This is like asking for a sweepstake on peoples deaths .... i prefer just to wait and find out the horrid number rather than pre guessing"
Totally agree I hate that time of the day when they release the figures, literally breaks my heart, all of these beautiful souls gone and all those families hurting, wish there was more people could do......hang in there is stay indoors. |
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"Mondays figures for hospital deaths was lowest for a fortnight...though monday figures (for up to 5pm sunday) are often a little lower. Todays figures bounced back up, sadly, and any deaths are a tragedy.
Where do we think they could be tomorrow? Have we reached or passed peak?
We have a issue with how deaths are recorded, don't quote me on this but some of these deaths actually happened in march but wasn't registered, and the rest of them was over the last 5 days!!
So regards your question who knows !! How would they ever really actually know when the curve/peak would be based on it's not daily figures because they add on dates from 40days before.
Here's a thought or question virtual parliament.....today we had very few MPs in Westminster today and our government is currently thinking about lifting restrictions over time soy thought is this .......
We open back up as country or we are asked to return to work when every single MP sits in Westminster together and not apart, basically if it's good enough for us then it's good enough for them ..... discuss ?.
I really don't think we will be “open for business” as it were overnight , restrictions will be lifted slowly, people working in close proximity probably phased in depending on necessity of industry and possibility to work from home
But yeah when we are all fully back in the office i would expect them to all be back in parliament
That is if we ever go back to that, I think both companies and employees will have been forced to see some of the benefits of having capability for home working ... wouldnt surprise me at all if companies long term cut back on office space, start hotdesking with a less than once ratio with people rotating working from home periods to cut costs
Likewise if parliament finally see an opportunity to modernise away from that lets filter through a corridor for yes or no nonsense it wouldn’t be a bad thing "
Again totally agree with you there's not a chance in hell we'll be business as usual for a long long time and your idea about offices is great, have different opening times so certain floors in offices finish at different times and work from home more etc
Glad you see the same as I do regarding them in Westminster  |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"Glad you see the same as I do regarding them in Westminster "
Think of all the extra stuff they could talk about if they didnt need to waste their time wandering single file to be counted at the end of each motion  . That button press technology has been knocking about for donkeys years ... they used it every weekend on who wants to be a millionaire ask the audience haha  |
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"Glad you see the same as I do regarding them in Westminster
Think of all the extra stuff they could talk about if they didnt need to waste their time wandering single file to be counted at the end of each motion . That button press technology has been knocking about for donkeys years ... they used it every weekend on who wants to be a millionaire ask the audience haha "
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"Yes we’ve reached the peak and gone past it. "
We're past the peak, NHS isn't overwhelmed, but the government has massively failed to prepare us for living with the virus. We need mass testing and contact tracing, vaccine is pie in the sky as a solution. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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Contact tracing can't really work once you've hit these sorts of numbers with a population that isn't fully on-board. It's just not feasible, unless you start mandating people's actions and the government isn't making any noises that they want to impose conditions like that. |
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"Contact tracing can't really work once you've hit these sorts of numbers with a population that isn't fully on-board. It's just not feasible, unless you start mandating people's actions and the government isn't making any noises that they want to impose conditions like that."
I fear you are right. Putting millions of people out of work is apparently fine but forcing them to download an app apparently crosses the line. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"Er, we've not gone past the peak at all!
Maybe in London yes, but not up here in the North West.
Where do you see the figures broken down by region? "
Every day on the briefing... first slide |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"forcing them to download an app apparently crosses the line. "
The issue isn't with the mandating element, its the practical side... like with vaccines, unless you have near 100% coverage, contact tracing won't be effective. Telling someone they need to go to their app store and download this might get to 40% ... maybe...
Really Gov needs to get Apple + Google to FORCE the installation of this software. I genuinely don't know if this is possible
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"Er, we've not gone past the peak at all!
Maybe in London yes, but not up here in the North West.
Where do you see the figures broken down by region?
Every day on the briefing... first slide"
Can't see the trend by see the totals now. London first, makes sense. I guess Midlands is driven by Birmingham, our second largest city. How are you northerns getting more cases than the south east. London sneezes and it blows here  |
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"What is contact tracing? "
In China and Singapore, an app traces where you've been. So if you went to the post office and little old Doris on the desk tests positive, you'll get a text or whatever to come in for a test. That way, you don't infect others whilst you are oblivious to any symptoms. In Singapore they target 2 hours to trace the contacts of a positive case. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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Without context it is difficult to know.... We've got super urban, regional towns that really haven't had much and plenty of rural.... so mixed bag really... What I think is traffic returning to normal might be different to down there....
Although.. anecdotally.... I needed to go to A&E on Sunday (yes..perfect timing... ~4 medical encounters in 10 years.. and i manage to stab my own hand!).... infection control really needs work up here! Good process engineering session would sort them out! ... like the COVID PPE changing room right in the middle of the Urgent care waiting room .. and the Doc has to walk right next to the chairs... |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"What is contact tracing?
In China and Singapore, an app traces where you've been. So if you went to the post office and little old Doris on the desk tests positive, you'll get a text or whatever to come in for a test. That way, you don't infect others whilst you are oblivious to any symptoms. In Singapore they target 2 hours to trace the contacts of a positive case. "
In the early stages of the outbreak... they posted online the transport routes people took with timing.... got to love the data there! |
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"Without context it is difficult to know.... We've got super urban, regional towns that really haven't had much and plenty of rural.... so mixed bag really... What I think is traffic returning to normal might be different to down there....
Although.. anecdotally.... I needed to go to A&E on Sunday (yes..perfect timing... ~4 medical encounters in 10 years.. and i manage to stab my own hand!).... infection control really needs work up here! Good process engineering session would sort them out! ... like the COVID PPE changing room right in the middle of the Urgent care waiting room .. and the Doc has to walk right next to the chairs... "
Fuck all traffic here in the shires... |
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The government has only been releasing daily hospital death totals, albeit with delays often incurred. Many other deaths are omitted, which shields us from the full picture. Naively I assume that some reflection of the distancing measures are now in the hospital admissions numbers. Sadly, the lack of PPE etc is exposing hospital staff and patients to greater risks of infection. Likewise in care homes and carers. |
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The thing with these deaths is if covid-19 is mentioned any where on a death certificate it goes down as covid-19 death. So if someone was gravely ill and just so happened to contract covid19 then those deaths are added to the figures regardless if covid was or was not the main factor in their death. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"The thing with these deaths is if covid-19 is mentioned any where on a death certificate it goes down as covid-19 death. So if someone was gravely ill and just so happened to contract covid19 then those deaths are added to the figures regardless if covid was or was not the main factor in their death."
If they were gravely ill but ALIVE Then got covid and DIED , guess what killed them 
Cause of death is still cause of death no matter what underlying issues there are |
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"The thing with these deaths is if covid-19 is mentioned any where on a death certificate it goes down as covid-19 death. So if someone was gravely ill and just so happened to contract covid19 then those deaths are added to the figures regardless if covid was or was not the main factor in their death.
If they were gravely ill but ALIVE Then got covid and DIED , guess what killed them
Cause of death is still cause of death no matter what underlying issues there are "
Thats simply not true. Covid19 doesn't mean death in the majority of cases. Its not guaranteed to kill you or the ones with underlying health issues. Here is a cut and paste from channel 4 website on fact checking:-
Registered deaths where coronavirus is mentioned
Tells us: about deaths that happen in hospitals and outside; not contingent on a positive test
Published by: Office for National Statistics: National Records of Scotland, Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency
Covers: England and Wales; Scotland; Northern Ireland
Limitations: significant time-lag; relies on doctors mentioning Covid-19 on death certificates
National statistics bodies covering the whole of the UK are now publishing data based on death certificates which mention Covid-19 (not necessarily as the main cause of death).
This includes people who die in hospital and elsewhere, so it inevitably gives us a larger number of deaths.
The system relies on doctors filling in death certificates (technically a “medical certificate of cause of death”), which raises some problems, given the lack of coronavirus testing in the community.
According to the Royal College of GPs, doctors can “register COVID-19 as the patient’s cause of death on the basis of a reasoned clinical assessment, whether or not they have been tested for the virus”.
But we can’t be sure that every coronavirus death will be correctly diagnosed and indicated on a death certificate.
The Care Quality Commission has announced that it will begin a new reporting regime covering deaths in care homes in England, which might be an improvement, but we haven’t seen the detail yet.
There’s also another time-lag in these death certificate stats. The ONS figures covering England and Wales were published on Tuesday (April 14) but only cover a period ending on April 3.
Confusingly, the different national statistics bodies are not publishing figures for the same time-period on the same day, with Scotland putting out the most up-to-date figures.
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"The thing with these deaths is if covid-19 is mentioned any where on a death certificate it goes down as covid-19 death. So if someone was gravely ill and just so happened to contract covid19 then those deaths are added to the figures regardless if covid was or was not the main factor in their death.
If they were gravely ill but ALIVE Then got covid and DIED , guess what killed them
Cause of death is still cause of death no matter what underlying issues there are
Thats simply not true. Covid19 doesn't mean death in the majority of cases. Its not guaranteed to kill you or the ones with underlying health issues.
"
I am not sure where i suggested it was guaranteed to kill you?
I said IF you were ill but alive then IF you get covid and die, covid is your cause of death... maybe a straw that broke the camels back but the cause none the less
Deaths have always been recorded that way, I know someone who sadly passed of pneumonia (not recently) following the end of a difficult fight with leukaemia, yes the leukaemia weakened their body but their cause of death was pneumonia
If i have ms or cycstic fibrosis and then i get stabbed, cause of death is murder... the fact i was gravely ill before that doesn’t change it |
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"The thing with these deaths is if covid-19 is mentioned any where on a death certificate it goes down as covid-19 death. So if someone was gravely ill and just so happened to contract covid19 then those deaths are added to the figures regardless if covid was or was not the main factor in their death.
If they were gravely ill but ALIVE Then got covid and DIED , guess what killed them
Cause of death is still cause of death no matter what underlying issues there are
Thats simply not true. Covid19 doesn't mean death in the majority of cases. Its not guaranteed to kill you or the ones with underlying health issues.
I am not sure where i suggested it was guaranteed to kill you?
I said IF you were ill but alive then IF you get covid and die, covid is your cause of death... maybe a straw that broke the camels back but the cause none the less
Deaths have always been recorded that way, I know someone who sadly passed of pneumonia (not recently) following the end of a difficult fight with leukaemia, yes the leukaemia weakened their body but their cause of death was pneumonia
If i have ms or cycstic fibrosis and then i get stabbed, cause of death is murder... the fact i was gravely ill before that doesn’t change it"
If the cause of death is internal bleeding and you just so happen to have covid19 its recorded on your death certificate. It also goes down as government figures.
If you die of covid-19 or die with covid-19 then they are both included in the government figures. Big difference. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"The thing with these deaths is if covid-19 is mentioned any where on a death certificate it goes down as covid-19 death. So if someone was gravely ill and just so happened to contract covid19 then those deaths are added to the figures regardless if covid was or was not the main factor in their death.
If they were gravely ill but ALIVE Then got covid and DIED , guess what killed them
Cause of death is still cause of death no matter what underlying issues there are
Thats simply not true. Covid19 doesn't mean death in the majority of cases. Its not guaranteed to kill you or the ones with underlying health issues.
I am not sure where i suggested it was guaranteed to kill you?
I said IF you were ill but alive then IF you get covid and die, covid is your cause of death... maybe a straw that broke the camels back but the cause none the less
Deaths have always been recorded that way, I know someone who sadly passed of pneumonia (not recently) following the end of a difficult fight with leukaemia, yes the leukaemia weakened their body but their cause of death was pneumonia
If i have ms or cycstic fibrosis and then i get stabbed, cause of death is murder... the fact i was gravely ill before that doesn’t change it
If the cause of death is internal bleeding and you just so happen to have covid19 its recorded on your death certificate. It also goes down as government figures.
If you die of covid-19 or die with covid-19 then they are both included in the government figures. Big difference."
Internal bleeding isn’t really a pre existing condition you could have been surviving with for any period of time let alone enough to incubate covid to show positive on a test... so is this just a hypothetical that doesn’t work or are you meaning covid caused internal damage that caused internal bleeding? (I don’t think its one of the symptoms as far as i am aware)
To me someone who dies from internal bleeding has probably just been in an accident or something and if someone comes in from a car crash , dies and is then tested for covid to record it on a death certificate then yes i agree that is just plain stupid, however i really doubt that is what is happening |
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"The thing with these deaths is if covid-19 is mentioned any where on a death certificate it goes down as covid-19 death. So if someone was gravely ill and just so happened to contract covid19 then those deaths are added to the figures regardless if covid was or was not the main factor in their death.
If they were gravely ill but ALIVE Then got covid and DIED , guess what killed them
Cause of death is still cause of death no matter what underlying issues there are
Thats simply not true. Covid19 doesn't mean death in the majority of cases. Its not guaranteed to kill you or the ones with underlying health issues.
I am not sure where i suggested it was guaranteed to kill you?
I said IF you were ill but alive then IF you get covid and die, covid is your cause of death... maybe a straw that broke the camels back but the cause none the less
Deaths have always been recorded that way, I know someone who sadly passed of pneumonia (not recently) following the end of a difficult fight with leukaemia, yes the leukaemia weakened their body but their cause of death was pneumonia
If i have ms or cycstic fibrosis and then i get stabbed, cause of death is murder... the fact i was gravely ill before that doesn’t change it
If the cause of death is internal bleeding and you just so happen to have covid19 its recorded on your death certificate. It also goes down as government figures.
If you die of covid-19 or die with covid-19 then they are both included in the government figures. Big difference.
Internal bleeding isn’t really a pre existing condition you could have been surviving with for any period of time let alone enough to incubate covid to show positive on a test... so is this just a hypothetical that doesn’t work or are you meaning covid caused internal damage that caused internal bleeding? (I don’t think its one of the symptoms as far as i am aware)
To me someone who dies from internal bleeding has probably just been in an accident or something and if someone comes in from a car crash , dies and is then tested for covid to record it on a death certificate then yes i agree that is just plain stupid, however i really doubt that is what is happening"
It was used as an example, just like your "murder" logic.
And yes that is exactly what is happening.
People who are suspected of death from covid-19 are not even being tested or have an inquest.
Like i mentioned, the figures released daily are people who have died as a direct result of covid-19, died with covid-19 through other causes or suspected death by covid-19. Look it up. |
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"The thing with these deaths is if covid-19 is mentioned any where on a death certificate it goes down as covid-19 death. So if someone was gravely ill and just so happened to contract covid19 then those deaths are added to the figures regardless if covid was or was not the main factor in their death.
If they were gravely ill but ALIVE Then got covid and DIED , guess what killed them
Cause of death is still cause of death no matter what underlying issues there are
Thats simply not true. Covid19 doesn't mean death in the majority of cases. Its not guaranteed to kill you or the ones with underlying health issues.
I am not sure where i suggested it was guaranteed to kill you?
I said IF you were ill but alive then IF you get covid and die, covid is your cause of death... maybe a straw that broke the camels back but the cause none the less
Deaths have always been recorded that way, I know someone who sadly passed of pneumonia (not recently) following the end of a difficult fight with leukaemia, yes the leukaemia weakened their body but their cause of death was pneumonia
If i have ms or cycstic fibrosis and then i get stabbed, cause of death is murder... the fact i was gravely ill before that doesn’t change it
If the cause of death is internal bleeding and you just so happen to have covid19 its recorded on your death certificate. It also goes down as government figures.
If you die of covid-19 or die with covid-19 then they are both included in the government figures. Big difference.
Internal bleeding isn’t really a pre existing condition you could have been surviving with for any period of time let alone enough to incubate covid to show positive on a test... so is this just a hypothetical that doesn’t work or are you meaning covid caused internal damage that caused internal bleeding? (I don’t think its one of the symptoms as far as i am aware)
To me someone who dies from internal bleeding has probably just been in an accident or something and if someone comes in from a car crash , dies and is then tested for covid to record it on a death certificate then yes i agree that is just plain stupid, however i really doubt that is what is happening
It was used as an example, just like your "murder" logic.
And yes that is exactly what is happening.
People who are suspected of death from covid-19 are not even being tested or have an inquest.
Like i mentioned, the figures released daily are people who have died as a direct result of covid-19, died with covid-19 through other causes or suspected death by covid-19. Look it up."
Also doesn't include deaths in care homes. |
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By *abs..Woman
over a year ago
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"The thing with these deaths is if covid-19 is mentioned any where on a death certificate it goes down as covid-19 death. So if someone was gravely ill and just so happened to contract covid19 then those deaths are added to the figures regardless if covid was or was not the main factor in their death.
If they were gravely ill but ALIVE Then got covid and DIED , guess what killed them
Cause of death is still cause of death no matter what underlying issues there are
Thats simply not true. Covid19 doesn't mean death in the majority of cases. Its not guaranteed to kill you or the ones with underlying health issues.
I am not sure where i suggested it was guaranteed to kill you?
I said IF you were ill but alive then IF you get covid and die, covid is your cause of death... maybe a straw that broke the camels back but the cause none the less
Deaths have always been recorded that way, I know someone who sadly passed of pneumonia (not recently) following the end of a difficult fight with leukaemia, yes the leukaemia weakened their body but their cause of death was pneumonia
If i have ms or cycstic fibrosis and then i get stabbed, cause of death is murder... the fact i was gravely ill before that doesn’t change it
If the cause of death is internal bleeding and you just so happen to have covid19 its recorded on your death certificate. It also goes down as government figures.
If you die of covid-19 or die with covid-19 then they are both included in the government figures. Big difference.
Internal bleeding isn’t really a pre existing condition you could have been surviving with for any period of time let alone enough to incubate covid to show positive on a test... so is this just a hypothetical that doesn’t work or are you meaning covid caused internal damage that caused internal bleeding? (I don’t think its one of the symptoms as far as i am aware)
To me someone who dies from internal bleeding has probably just been in an accident or something and if someone comes in from a car crash , dies and is then tested for covid to record it on a death certificate then yes i agree that is just plain stupid, however i really doubt that is what is happening
It was used as an example, just like your "murder" logic.
And yes that is exactly what is happening.
People who are suspected of death from covid-19 are not even being tested or have an inquest.
Like i mentioned, the figures released daily are people who have died as a direct result of covid-19, died with covid-19 through other causes or suspected death by covid-19. Look it up.
Also doesn't include deaths in care homes. "
The ONS figures include them though. |
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