FabSwingers.com > Forums > Virus > Hoping for a wet summer
Hoping for a wet summer
Jump to: Newest in thread
Hear me out!
So we're currently in lock down, timescale unknown, and in the main we're conforming to social distancing. A lot of anxiety because we're sociable animals, worried about food and roof over our heads.
We may have several rounds of lock down before we can relax, but I suspect the rise in unemployment and not being able to plan ahead will lead to civil unrest.
We already see key workers being attacked, and my fear is riots.
You ask where does the rain come in? Very simple, you don't get riots in the rain.
|
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
Agree. Serious risk of riots the way this is going. Massive anti-police sentiment boiling under the surface, high street full of stock and nobody guarding it, boredom, people losing income, it's a recipe for disaster. |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
"Hear me out!
So we're currently in lock down, timescale unknown, and in the main we're conforming to social distancing. A lot of anxiety because we're sociable animals, worried about food and roof over our heads.
We may have several rounds of lock down before we can relax, but I suspect the rise in unemployment and not being able to plan ahead will lead to civil unrest.
We already see key workers being attacked, and my fear is riots.
You ask where does the rain come in? Very simple, you don't get riots in the rain.
"
I also predict civil unrest
I'm guessing it wont be long before
" fuck it let it loose" is the average response
Sadly my prediction (hunch based upon oak trees)
It's going to be hot and dry
People go crazy when
A. they are restricted
B. It gets hot
C .no one agrees
D. they are horny
E. They are frightened
Oh fucking shit
And regardless of any method used to deal with cov-sars2 it's a 12 month minimum period of restrictions |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
California couldn't hack it. It's hot, its drug deprived population can't get a joint or a fix.
They'd rather die of a desease and spread it to others. At least they'll go on high. A modern day Sodom and Gomorrah.
Freedom of choice I suppose. |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
Why has no-one mentioned a crap Tory government as being the main ingredient in the recipe for civil unrest yet? They certainly need to go.
When old societies are dying new ones are formed by those who are not afraid to be insecure. |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
"California couldn't hack it. It's hot, its drug deprived population can't get a joint or a fix.
They'd rather die of a desease and spread it to others. At least they'll go on high. A modern day Sodom and Gomorrah.
Freedom of choice I suppose.
"
California will see a major rise in new case 7 to 14 days
Then people will listen
Think the government has been fair next step would be the army out |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
It don't think there will be mass civil unrest.
Maybe isolated incidents in dense populated areas put not on the scale that you might be predicting.
This forum seems to cycle through the worst case scenarios which seems to be an accurate constant. |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
The irony is the UK government haven't done lockdown right at all? Its been no way strict enough at all. If anything it could be a waste of 3 weeks
There are videos doing the rounds of Westminster Bridge with a thousand people on it Thursday night clapping for carers. And police standing beside them car & paddy wagon sirens blaring and clapping??
Nice sentiment but the crowd should have been allowed to gather and the police in the video should be held accountable |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
"I said right at the start of this if lockdown goes on for very long extended period there would be civil unrest.
"
Oh if only people knew the real story about lockdown. May be different here than the mainland but 6 weeks won't be the end of it |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
"I said right at the start of this if lockdown goes on for very long extended period there would be civil unrest.
Oh if only people knew the real story about lockdown. May be different here than the mainland but 6 weeks won't be the end of it "
What’s the real story? |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
 |
By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
Already got some parts of the media starting if only slightly to rail against the lockdown, do not underestimate the power of the Daily Mail, will cause trouble if they manage to get it into peoples heads that its unjust and they are being "imprisoned". |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
"I said right at the start of this if lockdown goes on for very long extended period there would be civil unrest.
Oh if only people knew the real story about lockdown. May be different here than the mainland but 6 weeks won't be the end of it
What’s the real story? "
Pm'ed you |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
"Already got some parts of the media starting if only slightly to rail against the lockdown, do not underestimate the power of the Daily Mail, will cause trouble if they manage to get it into peoples heads that its unjust and they are being "imprisoned"."
But lockdown here has been pretty slack compared to other countries? There's no checkpoints here, no postcode shopping windows, no daily curfews etc |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
"Why has no-one mentioned a crap Tory government as being the main ingredient in the recipe for civil unrest yet? They certainly need to go.
When old societies are dying new ones are formed by those who are not afraid to be insecure. "
Didn’t take long.
Personally I’d blame the amount of leftie’s ranting and blowing hot air, not the government. |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
"Already got some parts of the media starting if only slightly to rail against the lockdown, do not underestimate the power of the Daily Mail, will cause trouble if they manage to get it into peoples heads that its unjust and they are being "imprisoned".
But lockdown here has been pretty slack compared to other countries? There's no checkpoints here, no postcode shopping windows, no daily curfews etc "
You dont think that would reduce the time we are in lock down do you ?
Surely you dont think it could have been be erased from the UK (no hidden cases) and we would not have to lock down afterwards?
A tighter lockdown would only reduce icu cases
As it seems we have capacity the sooner we can become immune the better
More severe lock down means more vulnerable after the first and the more subsequent ones required
|
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
|
By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
"Already got some parts of the media starting if only slightly to rail against the lockdown, do not underestimate the power of the Daily Mail, will cause trouble if they manage to get it into peoples heads that its unjust and they are being "imprisoned".
But lockdown here has been pretty slack compared to other countries? There's no checkpoints here, no postcode shopping windows, no daily curfews etc "
Yeah I agree its really lax here, I honestly think that the government might have thought it was all we could handle, we arent used to the policing tactics of other countries, even those of our European neighbors, thoughts? |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
"
Yeah I agree its really lax here, I honestly think that the government might have thought it was all we could handle, we arent used to the policing tactics of other countries, even those of our European neighbors, thoughts? "
Exactly.
That’s why I roll my eyes every time I read another rant about how the government didn’t act soon enough, if they had, the same people moaning about them not acting soon enough would have been moaning about it being too soon. |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
"Graphs are starting to show a downturn and yet people are still calling for tighter lockdowns?
George Orwell must be turning in his grave. "
The number of new cases per day isn't going down. That's what you nees to be looking at, not the death rate. The high number of new cases are potential deaths in 2-3 weeks time. As this lockdown is to protect the NHS and not stop the virus, then this means that the current lockdown isn't tight enough as new cases are still rising or if you like, not going down quick enough. You've only got to look at countries with a strict lockdown from day 1 like Cyprus to see that the proof is in the pudding. |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
|
By *ty31Man
over a year ago
NW London |
"Already got some parts of the media starting if only slightly to rail against the lockdown, do not underestimate the power of the Daily Mail, will cause trouble if they manage to get it into peoples heads that its unjust and they are being "imprisoned".
But lockdown here has been pretty slack compared to other countries? There's no checkpoints here, no postcode shopping windows, no daily curfews etc "
Good. It's nice that we've been able to retain a few basic freedoms that other countries haven't. A tighter lockdown would have the potential to cause greater social problems. As it stands the vast majority have obeyed the regulations very closely. The minority that have not are not a large enough demographic to negatively affect the downward trend expected.
In my opion, there's no evidence that a stricter lockdown would be more effective. |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
"Graphs are starting to show a downturn and yet people are still calling for tighter lockdowns?
George Orwell must be turning in his grave.
The number of new cases per day isn't going down. That's what you nees to be looking at, not the death rate. The high number of new cases are potential deaths in 2-3 weeks time. As this lockdown is to protect the NHS and not stop the virus, then this means that the current lockdown isn't tight enough as new cases are still rising or if you like, not going down quick enough. You've only got to look at countries with a strict lockdown from day 1 like Cyprus to see that the proof is in the pudding. "
The case numbers are meaningless since we don't test enough people. We have a 13% fatality rate compared to 3% in Germany, the only difference being they tested more people. Italy had a tighter lockdown than us and it didn't get them anywhere. Lockdown is just one tool in the box and not even a good one. |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
"Graphs are starting to show a downturn and yet people are still calling for tighter lockdowns?
George Orwell must be turning in his grave.
The number of new cases per day isn't going down. That's what you nees to be looking at, not the death rate. The high number of new cases are potential deaths in 2-3 weeks time. As this lockdown is to protect the NHS and not stop the virus, then this means that the current lockdown isn't tight enough as new cases are still rising or if you like, not going down quick enough. You've only got to look at countries with a strict lockdown from day 1 like Cyprus to see that the proof is in the pudding.
The case numbers are meaningless since we don't test enough people. We have a 13% fatality rate compared to 3% in Germany, the only difference being they tested more people. Italy had a tighter lockdown than us and it didn't get them anywhere. Lockdown is just one tool in the box and not even a good one. "
We know that the daily cases are higher than reported but the government are looking at the new cases as a measure of how well lock down is working. So if these reported new cases are still going up, then the lockdown isn't working as effitively as they hoped it would |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
"Graphs are starting to show a downturn and yet people are still calling for tighter lockdowns?
George Orwell must be turning in his grave.
The number of new cases per day isn't going down. That's what you nees to be looking at, not the death rate. The high number of new cases are potential deaths in 2-3 weeks time. As this lockdown is to protect the NHS and not stop the virus, then this means that the current lockdown isn't tight enough as new cases are still rising or if you like, not going down quick enough. You've only got to look at countries with a strict lockdown from day 1 like Cyprus to see that the proof is in the pudding.
The case numbers are meaningless since we don't test enough people. We have a 13% fatality rate compared to 3% in Germany, the only difference being they tested more people. Italy had a tighter lockdown than us and it didn't get them anywhere. Lockdown is just one tool in the box and not even a good one.
We know that the daily cases are higher than reported but the government are looking at the new cases as a measure of how well lock down is working. So if these reported new cases are still going up, then the lockdown isn't working as effitively as they hoped it would"
I thought they would be looking at the death toll, those are the trends I've seen attention focussed on but I can't say I watch everything. The actual death rate of coronavirus is closer to 0.6% so they will just find more cases, the more they test. |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
|
By *mmabluTV/TS
over a year ago
upton wirral |
"Agree. Serious risk of riots the way this is going. Massive anti-police sentiment boiling under the surface, high street full of stock and nobody guarding it, boredom, people losing income, it's a recipe for disaster. "
People are not as thick as you think,thdey realise what is happening even most morons,this riot talk is plain silly to be honest
|
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
"Already got some parts of the media starting if only slightly to rail against the lockdown, do not underestimate the power of the Daily Mail, will cause trouble if they manage to get it into peoples heads that its unjust and they are being "imprisoned".
But lockdown here has been pretty slack compared to other countries? There's no checkpoints here, no postcode shopping windows, no daily curfews etc
Good. It's nice that we've been able to retain a few basic freedoms that other countries haven't. A tighter lockdown would have the potential to cause greater social problems. As it stands the vast majority have obeyed the regulations very closely. The minority that have not are not a large enough demographic to negatively affect the downward trend expected.
In my opion, there's no evidence that a stricter lockdown would be more effective."
Look at the Republic of Ireland, Cyprus, Germany death per capita ratio and try tell me stricter lockdown didn't work?
Lockdown isn't to reduce the deaths its to reduce the number of infected? The infected numbers aren't going down at all? Yesterday's deaths dropped by approx 300 but they admitted on their daily briefing that was because not all data had come forward as it was the weekend? |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
"Graphs are starting to show a downturn and yet people are still calling for tighter lockdowns?
George Orwell must be turning in his grave.
The number of new cases per day isn't going down. That's what you nees to be looking at, not the death rate. The high number of new cases are potential deaths in 2-3 weeks time. As this lockdown is to protect the NHS and not stop the virus, then this means that the current lockdown isn't tight enough as new cases are still rising or if you like, not going down quick enough. You've only got to look at countries with a strict lockdown from day 1 like Cyprus to see that the proof is in the pudding.
The case numbers are meaningless since we don't test enough people. We have a 13% fatality rate compared to 3% in Germany, the only difference being they tested more people. Italy had a tighter lockdown than us and it didn't get them anywhere. Lockdown is just one tool in the box and not even a good one.
We know that the daily cases are higher than reported but the government are looking at the new cases as a measure of how well lock down is working. So if these reported new cases are still going up, then the lockdown isn't working as effitively as they hoped it would
I thought they would be looking at the death toll, those are the trends I've seen attention focussed on but I can't say I watch everything. The actual death rate of coronavirus is closer to 0.6% so they will just find more cases, the more they test."
I watch it closely as I need a plan of how long my business will be closed lol
They look at daily new cases as that is an indicator of how well the lock down is working. If the new cases go down, then people are staying in and not passing the virus on. They look at the new cases, as these are the potential ICU cases that they need to plan for. Remember that this lock down isn't to stop the virus, it's to stop the NHS getting to breaking point with too many critical cases. So the more new cases we have, the more chance we have of the NHS struggling. They know that those admitted to hospital are those who need additional support and those who lose their battle will do so within 2 weeks. So the new cases reported is a good forecast of how stretched our services will be in the future. So it's the new cases that we need to get down and this will have a knock on effect on the death rate. |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
"Lets have lots of long hot sunny days so we can sunbathe and relax.
A few idiots rioting is not likely but if it does just shoot them"
Agree with you totally! Need to enjoy life as much as we can! |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
"Already got some parts of the media starting if only slightly to rail against the lockdown, do not underestimate the power of the Daily Mail, will cause trouble if they manage to get it into peoples heads that its unjust and they are being "imprisoned".
But lockdown here has been pretty slack compared to other countries? There's no checkpoints here, no postcode shopping windows, no daily curfews etc
Good. It's nice that we've been able to retain a few basic freedoms that other countries haven't. A tighter lockdown would have the potential to cause greater social problems. As it stands the vast majority have obeyed the regulations very closely. The minority that have not are not a large enough demographic to negatively affect the downward trend expected.
In my opion, there's no evidence that a stricter lockdown would be more effective.
Look at the Republic of Ireland, Cyprus, Germany death per capita ratio and try tell me stricter lockdown didn't work?
Lockdown isn't to reduce the deaths its to reduce the number of infected? The infected numbers aren't going down at all? Yesterday's deaths dropped by approx 300 but they admitted on their daily briefing that was because not all data had come forward as it was the weekend? "
Look at south Korea, sweden and Singapore, see I can cherry pick countries too. Case numbers mean nothing, we wouldn't have a 13% death rate if we had identified anything like the real case numbers. Case numbers are going up because we're testing more. Lockdown is one tool, other countries have achieved better results with other tools. |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
Bit of a quandary, acted too late, not enough resources for a service cut back, brought in a lockdown and the numbers of infections are still not low enough..
Can't really impose a stricter lockdown Lest one look like you didn't listen or want to be seen to follow those foreign types who did with the numbers to show..
Can't lift it as the numbers are still high, not enough masks etc to give to those who go back now..
So keep patronising the country with daily nonsense whilst ignoring the front line staffs concerns over ppe and hope for the best..
File the lack of preparedness report with the one on the Russians influence on the party.. |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
"Graphs are starting to show a downturn and yet people are still calling for tighter lockdowns?
George Orwell must be turning in his grave.
The number of new cases per day isn't going down. That's what you nees to be looking at, not the death rate. The high number of new cases are potential deaths in 2-3 weeks time. As this lockdown is to protect the NHS and not stop the virus, then this means that the current lockdown isn't tight enough as new cases are still rising or if you like, not going down quick enough. You've only got to look at countries with a strict lockdown from day 1 like Cyprus to see that the proof is in the pudding.
The case numbers are meaningless since we don't test enough people. We have a 13% fatality rate compared to 3% in Germany, the only difference being they tested more people. Italy had a tighter lockdown than us and it didn't get them anywhere. Lockdown is just one tool in the box and not even a good one.
We know that the daily cases are higher than reported but the government are looking at the new cases as a measure of how well lock down is working. So if these reported new cases are still going up, then the lockdown isn't working as effitively as they hoped it would
I thought they would be looking at the death toll, those are the trends I've seen attention focussed on but I can't say I watch everything. The actual death rate of coronavirus is closer to 0.6% so they will just find more cases, the more they test.
I watch it closely as I need a plan of how long my business will be closed lol
They look at daily new cases as that is an indicator of how well the lock down is working. If the new cases go down, then people are staying in and not passing the virus on. They look at the new cases, as these are the potential ICU cases that they need to plan for. Remember that this lock down isn't to stop the virus, it's to stop the NHS getting to breaking point with too many critical cases. So the more new cases we have, the more chance we have of the NHS struggling. They know that those admitted to hospital are those who need additional support and those who lose their battle will do so within 2 weeks. So the new cases reported is a good forecast of how stretched our services will be in the future. So it's the new cases that we need to get down and this will have a knock on effect on the death rate. "
Well the good news would be that Italy and Spain are clearly over their peak now. We're probably over ours. Second waves are a theory and not a fact. There's no second wave in China yet. America is getting back to work and the government will soon realise that if American companies keep working and British ones don't, there won't be much of an economy left to ever open up. There is of course bad news out there too.
By the way, we're you ever on a channel 4 show about prejudice? |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
|
By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
"Graphs are starting to show a downturn and yet people are still calling for tighter lockdowns?
George Orwell must be turning in his grave.
The number of new cases per day isn't going down. That's what you nees to be looking at, not the death rate. The high number of new cases are potential deaths in 2-3 weeks time. As this lockdown is to protect the NHS and not stop the virus, then this means that the current lockdown isn't tight enough as new cases are still rising or if you like, not going down quick enough. You've only got to look at countries with a strict lockdown from day 1 like Cyprus to see that the proof is in the pudding.
The case numbers are meaningless since we don't test enough people. We have a 13% fatality rate compared to 3% in Germany, the only difference being they tested more people. Italy had a tighter lockdown than us and it didn't get them anywhere. Lockdown is just one tool in the box and not even a good one. "
If we don't have an accurate number of persons infected how did you come up with a death rate of 13% |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
"Graphs are starting to show a downturn and yet people are still calling for tighter lockdowns?
George Orwell must be turning in his grave.
The number of new cases per day isn't going down. That's what you nees to be looking at, not the death rate. The high number of new cases are potential deaths in 2-3 weeks time. As this lockdown is to protect the NHS and not stop the virus, then this means that the current lockdown isn't tight enough as new cases are still rising or if you like, not going down quick enough. You've only got to look at countries with a strict lockdown from day 1 like Cyprus to see that the proof is in the pudding.
The case numbers are meaningless since we don't test enough people. We have a 13% fatality rate compared to 3% in Germany, the only difference being they tested more people. Italy had a tighter lockdown than us and it didn't get them anywhere. Lockdown is just one tool in the box and not even a good one.
If we don't have an accurate number of persons infected how did you come up with a death rate of 13%"
16,060 / 120,067 = 13%. The governments figures taken at face value. Real death rate is probably 0.6%. |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
"Graphs are starting to show a downturn and yet people are still calling for tighter lockdowns?
George Orwell must be turning in his grave.
The number of new cases per day isn't going down. That's what you nees to be looking at, not the death rate. The high number of new cases are potential deaths in 2-3 weeks time. As this lockdown is to protect the NHS and not stop the virus, then this means that the current lockdown isn't tight enough as new cases are still rising or if you like, not going down quick enough. You've only got to look at countries with a strict lockdown from day 1 like Cyprus to see that the proof is in the pudding.
The case numbers are meaningless since we don't test enough people. We have a 13% fatality rate compared to 3% in Germany, the only difference being they tested more people. Italy had a tighter lockdown than us and it didn't get them anywhere. Lockdown is just one tool in the box and not even a good one.
We know that the daily cases are higher than reported but the government are looking at the new cases as a measure of how well lock down is working. So if these reported new cases are still going up, then the lockdown isn't working as effitively as they hoped it would
I thought they would be looking at the death toll, those are the trends I've seen attention focussed on but I can't say I watch everything. The actual death rate of coronavirus is closer to 0.6% so they will just find more cases, the more they test.
I watch it closely as I need a plan of how long my business will be closed lol
They look at daily new cases as that is an indicator of how well the lock down is working. If the new cases go down, then people are staying in and not passing the virus on. They look at the new cases, as these are the potential ICU cases that they need to plan for. Remember that this lock down isn't to stop the virus, it's to stop the NHS getting to breaking point with too many critical cases. So the more new cases we have, the more chance we have of the NHS struggling. They know that those admitted to hospital are those who need additional support and those who lose their battle will do so within 2 weeks. So the new cases reported is a good forecast of how stretched our services will be in the future. So it's the new cases that we need to get down and this will have a knock on effect on the death rate.
Well the good news would be that Italy and Spain are clearly over their peak now. We're probably over ours. Second waves are a theory and not a fact. There's no second wave in China yet. America is getting back to work and the government will soon realise that if American companies keep working and British ones don't, there won't be much of an economy left to ever open up. There is of course bad news out there too.
By the way, we're you ever on a channel 4 show about prejudice? "
Isnt our mortality rate still going up? |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
"Graphs are starting to show a downturn and yet people are still calling for tighter lockdowns?
George Orwell must be turning in his grave.
The number of new cases per day isn't going down. That's what you nees to be looking at, not the death rate. The high number of new cases are potential deaths in 2-3 weeks time. As this lockdown is to protect the NHS and not stop the virus, then this means that the current lockdown isn't tight enough as new cases are still rising or if you like, not going down quick enough. You've only got to look at countries with a strict lockdown from day 1 like Cyprus to see that the proof is in the pudding.
The case numbers are meaningless since we don't test enough people. We have a 13% fatality rate compared to 3% in Germany, the only difference being they tested more people. Italy had a tighter lockdown than us and it didn't get them anywhere. Lockdown is just one tool in the box and not even a good one.
We know that the daily cases are higher than reported but the government are looking at the new cases as a measure of how well lock down is working. So if these reported new cases are still going up, then the lockdown isn't working as effitively as they hoped it would
I thought they would be looking at the death toll, those are the trends I've seen attention focussed on but I can't say I watch everything. The actual death rate of coronavirus is closer to 0.6% so they will just find more cases, the more they test.
I watch it closely as I need a plan of how long my business will be closed lol
They look at daily new cases as that is an indicator of how well the lock down is working. If the new cases go down, then people are staying in and not passing the virus on. They look at the new cases, as these are the potential ICU cases that they need to plan for. Remember that this lock down isn't to stop the virus, it's to stop the NHS getting to breaking point with too many critical cases. So the more new cases we have, the more chance we have of the NHS struggling. They know that those admitted to hospital are those who need additional support and those who lose their battle will do so within 2 weeks. So the new cases reported is a good forecast of how stretched our services will be in the future. So it's the new cases that we need to get down and this will have a knock on effect on the death rate.
Well the good news would be that Italy and Spain are clearly over their peak now. We're probably over ours. Second waves are a theory and not a fact. There's no second wave in China yet. America is getting back to work and the government will soon realise that if American companies keep working and British ones don't, there won't be much of an economy left to ever open up. There is of course bad news out there too.
By the way, we're you ever on a channel 4 show about prejudice? "
If there is no second wave after a lockdown we have not been told the truth
The virus spread amongst 65 million people in the UK from a mere handful of infected
After a lockdown
63 million will still not have had it
More than a handful will still have it
Go compute ! |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
|
By *arkb73Man
over a year ago
Cheshire/Staffs |
"Hear me out!
So we're currently in lock down, timescale unknown, and in the main we're conforming to social distancing. A lot of anxiety because we're sociable animals, worried about food and roof over our heads.
We may have several rounds of lock down before we can relax, but I suspect the rise in unemployment and not being able to plan ahead will lead to civil unrest.
We already see key workers being attacked, and my fear is riots.
You ask where does the rain come in? Very simple, you don't get riots in the rain.
"
1981 was a very wet summer and there were plenty of riots! |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
|
By *arkb73Man
over a year ago
Cheshire/Staffs |
Lockdown is the most blunt instrument there is to deal with a pandemic.
Due to a lack of preparation, however, it is all we have at present.
It only buys us time, it does not cure or solve a thing. It just kicks the can down the road.
During the bought time, any decent government would have our economy fully focused on producing tests. Millions of them. Every factory dedicated to it.
Not sure that is happening, but it should be.
Once we have sufficient tests, we ease the lockdown. We then test everyone. Every day. Those testing positive go home and isolate. Those who do not carry on with their normal lives.
When/if a vaccine turns up, we move towards that as well as testing.
That’s the way out. |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
"Graphs are starting to show a downturn and yet people are still calling for tighter lockdowns?
George Orwell must be turning in his grave.
The number of new cases per day isn't going down. That's what you nees to be looking at, not the death rate. The high number of new cases are potential deaths in 2-3 weeks time. As this lockdown is to protect the NHS and not stop the virus, then this means that the current lockdown isn't tight enough as new cases are still rising or if you like, not going down quick enough. You've only got to look at countries with a strict lockdown from day 1 like Cyprus to see that the proof is in the pudding.
The case numbers are meaningless since we don't test enough people. We have a 13% fatality rate compared to 3% in Germany, the only difference being they tested more people. Italy had a tighter lockdown than us and it didn't get them anywhere. Lockdown is just one tool in the box and not even a good one.
We know that the daily cases are higher than reported but the government are looking at the new cases as a measure of how well lock down is working. So if these reported new cases are still going up, then the lockdown isn't working as effitively as they hoped it would
I thought they would be looking at the death toll, those are the trends I've seen attention focussed on but I can't say I watch everything. The actual death rate of coronavirus is closer to 0.6% so they will just find more cases, the more they test.
I watch it closely as I need a plan of how long my business will be closed lol
They look at daily new cases as that is an indicator of how well the lock down is working. If the new cases go down, then people are staying in and not passing the virus on. They look at the new cases, as these are the potential ICU cases that they need to plan for. Remember that this lock down isn't to stop the virus, it's to stop the NHS getting to breaking point with too many critical cases. So the more new cases we have, the more chance we have of the NHS struggling. They know that those admitted to hospital are those who need additional support and those who lose their battle will do so within 2 weeks. So the new cases reported is a good forecast of how stretched our services will be in the future. So it's the new cases that we need to get down and this will have a knock on effect on the death rate.
Well the good news would be that Italy and Spain are clearly over their peak now. We're probably over ours. Second waves are a theory and not a fact. There's no second wave in China yet. America is getting back to work and the government will soon realise that if American companies keep working and British ones don't, there won't be much of an economy left to ever open up. There is of course bad news out there too.
By the way, we're you ever on a channel 4 show about prejudice? "
I've been on quite a lot of media outlets and podcasts but never channel 4. I have doppelgangers as people are always saying they have seen me here and there lol xx |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
"Hear me out!
So we're currently in lock down, timescale unknown, and in the main we're conforming to social distancing. A lot of anxiety because we're sociable animals, worried about food and roof over our heads.
We may have several rounds of lock down before we can relax, but I suspect the rise in unemployment and not being able to plan ahead will lead to civil unrest.
We already see key workers being attacked, and my fear is riots.
You ask where does the rain come in? Very simple, you don't get riots in the rain.
1981 was a very wet summer and there were plenty of riots! "
There certainly were!! I lived through the Toxteth Riots in Liverpool in that very year! I'll never forget that the bright orange sky at night due to the raging fires. |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
"Lockdown is the most blunt instrument there is to deal with a pandemic.
Due to a lack of preparation, however, it is all we have at present.
It only buys us time, it does not cure or solve a thing. It just kicks the can down the road.
During the bought time, any decent government would have our economy fully focused on producing tests. Millions of them. Every factory dedicated to it.
Not sure that is happening, but it should be.
Once we have sufficient tests, we ease the lockdown. We then test everyone. Every day. Those testing positive go home and isolate. Those who do not carry on with their normal lives.
When/if a vaccine turns up, we move towards that as well as testing.
That’s the way out. "
This..
Were being asked to swallow the jingoistic language about being at war with all the elements one might associate with that..
But the reality is something far different.. |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
"Graphs are starting to show a downturn and yet people are still calling for tighter lockdowns?
George Orwell must be turning in his grave.
The number of new cases per day isn't going down. That's what you nees to be looking at, not the death rate. The high number of new cases are potential deaths in 2-3 weeks time. As this lockdown is to protect the NHS and not stop the virus, then this means that the current lockdown isn't tight enough as new cases are still rising or if you like, not going down quick enough. You've only got to look at countries with a strict lockdown from day 1 like Cyprus to see that the proof is in the pudding.
The case numbers are meaningless since we don't test enough people. We have a 13% fatality rate compared to 3% in Germany, the only difference being they tested more people. Italy had a tighter lockdown than us and it didn't get them anywhere. Lockdown is just one tool in the box and not even a good one.
We know that the daily cases are higher than reported but the government are looking at the new cases as a measure of how well lock down is working. So if these reported new cases are still going up, then the lockdown isn't working as effitively as they hoped it would
I thought they would be looking at the death toll, those are the trends I've seen attention focussed on but I can't say I watch everything. The actual death rate of coronavirus is closer to 0.6% so they will just find more cases, the more they test.
I watch it closely as I need a plan of how long my business will be closed lol
They look at daily new cases as that is an indicator of how well the lock down is working. If the new cases go down, then people are staying in and not passing the virus on. They look at the new cases, as these are the potential ICU cases that they need to plan for. Remember that this lock down isn't to stop the virus, it's to stop the NHS getting to breaking point with too many critical cases. So the more new cases we have, the more chance we have of the NHS struggling. They know that those admitted to hospital are those who need additional support and those who lose their battle will do so within 2 weeks. So the new cases reported is a good forecast of how stretched our services will be in the future. So it's the new cases that we need to get down and this will have a knock on effect on the death rate.
Well the good news would be that Italy and Spain are clearly over their peak now. We're probably over ours. Second waves are a theory and not a fact. There's no second wave in China yet. America is getting back to work and the government will soon realise that if American companies keep working and British ones don't, there won't be much of an economy left to ever open up. There is of course bad news out there too.
By the way, we're you ever on a channel 4 show about prejudice?
If there is no second wave after a lockdown we have not been told the truth
The virus spread amongst 65 million people in the UK from a mere handful of infected
After a lockdown
63 million will still not have had it
More than a handful will still have it
Go compute ! "
Nice confirmation bias. How many people do you know in China by the way? |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
"Graphs are starting to show a downturn and yet people are still calling for tighter lockdowns?
George Orwell must be turning in his grave.
The number of new cases per day isn't going down. That's what you nees to be looking at, not the death rate. The high number of new cases are potential deaths in 2-3 weeks time. As this lockdown is to protect the NHS and not stop the virus, then this means that the current lockdown isn't tight enough as new cases are still rising or if you like, not going down quick enough. You've only got to look at countries with a strict lockdown from day 1 like Cyprus to see that the proof is in the pudding.
The case numbers are meaningless since we don't test enough people. We have a 13% fatality rate compared to 3% in Germany, the only difference being they tested more people. Italy had a tighter lockdown than us and it didn't get them anywhere. Lockdown is just one tool in the box and not even a good one.
We know that the daily cases are higher than reported but the government are looking at the new cases as a measure of how well lock down is working. So if these reported new cases are still going up, then the lockdown isn't working as effitively as they hoped it would
I thought they would be looking at the death toll, those are the trends I've seen attention focussed on but I can't say I watch everything. The actual death rate of coronavirus is closer to 0.6% so they will just find more cases, the more they test.
I watch it closely as I need a plan of how long my business will be closed lol
They look at daily new cases as that is an indicator of how well the lock down is working. If the new cases go down, then people are staying in and not passing the virus on. They look at the new cases, as these are the potential ICU cases that they need to plan for. Remember that this lock down isn't to stop the virus, it's to stop the NHS getting to breaking point with too many critical cases. So the more new cases we have, the more chance we have of the NHS struggling. They know that those admitted to hospital are those who need additional support and those who lose their battle will do so within 2 weeks. So the new cases reported is a good forecast of how stretched our services will be in the future. So it's the new cases that we need to get down and this will have a knock on effect on the death rate.
Well the good news would be that Italy and Spain are clearly over their peak now. We're probably over ours. Second waves are a theory and not a fact. There's no second wave in China yet. America is getting back to work and the government will soon realise that if American companies keep working and British ones don't, there won't be much of an economy left to ever open up. There is of course bad news out there too.
By the way, we're you ever on a channel 4 show about prejudice?
I've been on quite a lot of media outlets and podcasts but never channel 4. I have doppelgangers as people are always saying they have seen me here and there lol xx"
They were such cunts, I don't know how you kept your cool. Probably better you did but not sure I would have. |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
|
By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
For so long the government have cut funding to the NHS and other essential areas like Mental Health etc. Without being disrespectful to anyone but the millennial generation doesn’t have the ability to hack it like the older generation did during the war.
Now wether you agree or not a lot of Europe are lifting restrictions and I think that if they don’t go to extend this Lockdown again in May that will be the match to light the powder keg.
Not everywhere had to close. Restaurants could have stayed open if they could offer a Takeaway facility so places like Maccies could have if they wanted to stayed open and just did Drive Through. It does sound daft but small things like that mean a lot to people and it would given a sense of normality for people to cope |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
"For so long the government have cut funding to the NHS and other essential areas like Mental Health etc. Without being disrespectful to anyone but the millennial generation doesn’t have the ability to hack it like the older generation did during the war.
Now wether you agree or not a lot of Europe are lifting restrictions and I think that if they don’t go to extend this Lockdown again in May that will be the match to light the powder keg.
Not everywhere had to close. Restaurants could have stayed open if they could offer a Takeaway facility so places like Maccies could have if they wanted to stayed open and just did Drive Through. It does sound daft but small things like that mean a lot to people and it would given a sense of normality for people to cope "
Not my food of choice but Look at the queues on McDonald's on their last day. And then an April Fool that they were opening again. Maybe it isn't economically viable for them to do just drive through? There's an Indian a few miles from me doing van deliveries with a very limited menu. I was told order by 3.00 for 8.30 delivery! There's now going to be a traffic lights scheme to come out of lockdown. Hopefully more of this will come back. I agree with you that it'll make a difference to the way things are. |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
"For so long the government have cut funding to the NHS and other essential areas like Mental Health etc. Without being disrespectful to anyone but the millennial generation doesn’t have the ability to hack it like the older generation did during the war.
Now wether you agree or not a lot of Europe are lifting restrictions and I think that if they don’t go to extend this Lockdown again in May that will be the match to light the powder keg.
Not everywhere had to close. Restaurants could have stayed open if they could offer a Takeaway facility so places like Maccies could have if they wanted to stayed open and just did Drive Through. It does sound daft but small things like that mean a lot to people and it would given a sense of normality for people to cope "
I'm not sure about the mainland but over here McDonald's chose to shutdown. They ran drive-thru only for a while but wasn't feasible |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
"Already got some parts of the media starting if only slightly to rail against the lockdown, do not underestimate the power of the Daily Mail, will cause trouble if they manage to get it into peoples heads that its unjust and they are being "imprisoned".
But lockdown here has been pretty slack compared to other countries? There's no checkpoints here, no postcode shopping windows, no daily curfews etc "
In Spain you get find €3000, for going out on a non essential journey.
France you have to fill out a form everytime you venture, more than 1k from your property. There is an increase of fines, up to €4000, a tag, and possibly a stay in prison.
In my opinion, things were handled awfully as usual for this country. |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
"For so long the government have cut funding to the NHS and other essential areas like Mental Health etc. Without being disrespectful to anyone but the millennial generation doesn’t have the ability to hack it like the older generation did during the war.
Now wether you agree or not a lot of Europe are lifting restrictions and I think that if they don’t go to extend this Lockdown again in May that will be the match to light the powder keg.
Not everywhere had to close. Restaurants could have stayed open if they could offer a Takeaway facility so places like Maccies could have if they wanted to stayed open and just did Drive Through. It does sound daft but small things like that mean a lot to people and it would given a sense of normality for people to cope
I'm not sure about the mainland but over here McDonald's chose to shutdown. They ran drive-thru only for a while but wasn't feasible "
maybe McDonalds closed due to it being impossible for their workers not to be in extremely close contact. |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
|
By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
A death rate as a % of infected people will never be accurate unless everyone who is symptomatic is tested. There are (insert unknown figure here) people who have had the virus, never been hospitalised and recovered perfectly fine who will never be included so the death rate will always be falsely high (as a %) even when you take into account un-tested deaths such as care homes which haven't been included in the statistics   |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
"
In my opinion, things were handled awfully as usual for this country. "
They have - the incompetence and arrogance of the Johnson government helps to create the fuel for civil unrest.
Those becoming frustrated, bored and hungry see a shambolic approach to tackling this virus.
They will begin to believe it makes no difference if you start going out next week or next year.
Months into this pandemic and we have an administration that can't find a way to buy and distribute face masks.
Those inclined to rebel have been given no reason to do otherwise.
|
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
"Already got some parts of the media starting if only slightly to rail against the lockdown, do not underestimate the power of the Daily Mail, will cause trouble if they manage to get it into peoples heads that its unjust and they are being "imprisoned".
But lockdown here has been pretty slack compared to other countries? There's no checkpoints here, no postcode shopping windows, no daily curfews etc
In Spain you get find €3000, for going out on a non essential journey.
France you have to fill out a form everytime you venture, more than 1k from your property. There is an increase of fines, up to €4000, a tag, and possibly a stay in prison.
In my opinion, things were handled awfully as usual for this country. "
Only reason I raised it was the difference here and south of the border is so so different. My brother passes through 6 checkpoints on a 15 mile drive to work every day. Here the police don't seem to bother |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
|
By *oirinMarkusCouple
over a year ago
West Midlands and West London |
" Not my food of choice but Look at the queues on McDonald's on their last day. And then an April Fool that they were opening again. Maybe it isn't economically viable for them to do just drive through? There's an Indian a few miles from me doing van deliveries with a very limited menu. I was told order by 3.00 for 8.30 delivery! There's now going to be a traffic lights scheme to come out of lockdown. Hopefully more of this will come back. I agree with you that it'll make a difference to the way things are. "
Please ignore that traffic light picture, it's from The Sun and not based on any actual facts or confirmation by the government. |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
|
By *oirinMarkusCouple
over a year ago
West Midlands and West London |
"I’m presuming everyone who is saying we should have had a full lockdown have not stepped out of their door."
Once, to buy food after not being able to secure a delivery spot anywhere and being weak after suspected Covid (yes it was after the two weeks of isolation). And I'm a keyworker |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
"For so long the government have cut funding to the NHS and other essential areas like Mental Health etc. Without being disrespectful to anyone but the millennial generation doesn’t have the ability to hack it like the older generation did during the war.
Now wether you agree or not a lot of Europe are lifting restrictions and I think that if they don’t go to extend this Lockdown again in May that will be the match to light the powder keg.
Not everywhere had to close. Restaurants could have stayed open if they could offer a Takeaway facility so places like Maccies could have if they wanted to stayed open and just did Drive Through. It does sound daft but small things like that mean a lot to people and it would given a sense of normality for people to cope
Not my food of choice but Look at the queues on McDonald's on their last day. And then an April Fool that they were opening again. Maybe it isn't economically viable for them to do just drive through? There's an Indian a few miles from me doing van deliveries with a very limited menu. I was told order by 3.00 for 8.30 delivery! There's now going to be a traffic lights scheme to come out of lockdown. Hopefully more of this will come back. I agree with you that it'll make a difference to the way things are. "
That traffic light graphic came from a rag of a newspaper, wasn't confirmed by. Government at all |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
"Graphs are starting to show a downturn and yet people are still calling for tighter lockdowns?
George Orwell must be turning in his grave.
The number of new cases per day isn't going down. That's what you nees to be looking at, not the death rate. The high number of new cases are potential deaths in 2-3 weeks time. As this lockdown is to protect the NHS and not stop the virus, then this means that the current lockdown isn't tight enough as new cases are still rising or if you like, not going down quick enough. You've only got to look at countries with a strict lockdown from day 1 like Cyprus to see that the proof is in the pudding.
The case numbers are meaningless since we don't test enough people. We have a 13% fatality rate compared to 3% in Germany, the only difference being they tested more people. Italy had a tighter lockdown than us and it didn't get them anywhere. Lockdown is just one tool in the box and not even a good one.
We know that the daily cases are higher than reported but the government are looking at the new cases as a measure of how well lock down is working. So if these reported new cases are still going up, then the lockdown isn't working as effitively as they hoped it would
I thought they would be looking at the death toll, those are the trends I've seen attention focussed on but I can't say I watch everything. The actual death rate of coronavirus is closer to 0.6% so they will just find more cases, the more they test.
I watch it closely as I need a plan of how long my business will be closed lol
They look at daily new cases as that is an indicator of how well the lock down is working. If the new cases go down, then people are staying in and not passing the virus on. They look at the new cases, as these are the potential ICU cases that they need to plan for. Remember that this lock down isn't to stop the virus, it's to stop the NHS getting to breaking point with too many critical cases. So the more new cases we have, the more chance we have of the NHS struggling. They know that those admitted to hospital are those who need additional support and those who lose their battle will do so within 2 weeks. So the new cases reported is a good forecast of how stretched our services will be in the future. So it's the new cases that we need to get down and this will have a knock on effect on the death rate.
Well the good news would be that Italy and Spain are clearly over their peak now. We're probably over ours. Second waves are a theory and not a fact. There's no second wave in China yet. America is getting back to work and the government will soon realise that if American companies keep working and British ones don't, there won't be much of an economy left to ever open up. There is of course bad news out there too.
By the way, we're you ever on a channel 4 show about prejudice?
If there is no second wave after a lockdown we have not been told the truth
The virus spread amongst 65 million people in the UK from a mere handful of infected
After a lockdown
63 million will still not have had it
More than a handful will still have it
Go compute !
Nice confirmation bias. How many people do you know in China by the way? "
No confirmation bias
I've not heard or read that anywhere
Iv only given an either or
Either out of lockdown we have the same susceptibility as before or I have zero idea why we would not
China is only just out of full lock down do I understand they are still on partial ?
If my maths serves me right it takes a couple of months from a small reservoir unrestricted to spread into the unprotected
Thus dont expect data from China until
A. All restrictions lifted
B. A month 2 after
Again no confirmation bias if you can articulate why if only 1 million out of 65 plus have potential immunity
And restrictions are lifted
Why vulnerable are not still vulnerable
And the virus would not repeat what it has done
Please bear in mind I say after lifting restrictions
Keeping restrictions will indeed keep it manageable
So please illustrate IF the virus is not eradicated why if restrictions are lifted it will not do as currently demonstrated? |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
|
By *arkb73Man
over a year ago
Cheshire/Staffs |
"Graphs are starting to show a downturn and yet people are still calling for tighter lockdowns?
George Orwell must be turning in his grave.
The number of new cases per day isn't going down. That's what you nees to be looking at, not the death rate. The high number of new cases are potential deaths in 2-3 weeks time. As this lockdown is to protect the NHS and not stop the virus, then this means that the current lockdown isn't tight enough as new cases are still rising or if you like, not going down quick enough. You've only got to look at countries with a strict lockdown from day 1 like Cyprus to see that the proof is in the pudding.
The case numbers are meaningless since we don't test enough people. We have a 13% fatality rate compared to 3% in Germany, the only difference being they tested more people. Italy had a tighter lockdown than us and it didn't get them anywhere. Lockdown is just one tool in the box and not even a good one.
We know that the daily cases are higher than reported but the government are looking at the new cases as a measure of how well lock down is working. So if these reported new cases are still going up, then the lockdown isn't working as effitively as they hoped it would
I thought they would be looking at the death toll, those are the trends I've seen attention focussed on but I can't say I watch everything. The actual death rate of coronavirus is closer to 0.6% so they will just find more cases, the more they test.
I watch it closely as I need a plan of how long my business will be closed lol
They look at daily new cases as that is an indicator of how well the lock down is working. If the new cases go down, then people are staying in and not passing the virus on. They look at the new cases, as these are the potential ICU cases that they need to plan for. Remember that this lock down isn't to stop the virus, it's to stop the NHS getting to breaking point with too many critical cases. So the more new cases we have, the more chance we have of the NHS struggling. They know that those admitted to hospital are those who need additional support and those who lose their battle will do so within 2 weeks. So the new cases reported is a good forecast of how stretched our services will be in the future. So it's the new cases that we need to get down and this will have a knock on effect on the death rate.
Well the good news would be that Italy and Spain are clearly over their peak now. We're probably over ours. Second waves are a theory and not a fact. There's no second wave in China yet. America is getting back to work and the government will soon realise that if American companies keep working and British ones don't, there won't be much of an economy left to ever open up. There is of course bad news out there too.
By the way, we're you ever on a channel 4 show about prejudice?
If there is no second wave after a lockdown we have not been told the truth
The virus spread amongst 65 million people in the UK from a mere handful of infected
After a lockdown
63 million will still not have had it
More than a handful will still have it
Go compute !
Nice confirmation bias. How many people do you know in China by the way?
No confirmation bias
I've not heard or read that anywhere
Iv only given an either or
Either out of lockdown we have the same susceptibility as before or I have zero idea why we would not
China is only just out of full lock down do I understand they are still on partial ?
If my maths serves me right it takes a couple of months from a small reservoir unrestricted to spread into the unprotected
Thus dont expect data from China until
A. All restrictions lifted
B. A month 2 after
Again no confirmation bias if you can articulate why if only 1 million out of 65 plus have potential immunity
And restrictions are lifted
Why vulnerable are not still vulnerable
And the virus would not repeat what it has done
Please bear in mind I say after lifting restrictions
Keeping restrictions will indeed keep it manageable
So please illustrate IF the virus is not eradicated why if restrictions are lifted it will not do as currently demonstrated? "
Restrictions and lockdown are fairly useless tools really - they only buy time and solve nothing. We need testing. |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
"Graphs are starting to show a downturn and yet people are still calling for tighter lockdowns?
George Orwell must be turning in his grave.
The number of new cases per day isn't going down. That's what you nees to be looking at, not the death rate. The high number of new cases are potential deaths in 2-3 weeks time. As this lockdown is to protect the NHS and not stop the virus, then this means that the current lockdown isn't tight enough as new cases are still rising or if you like, not going down quick enough. You've only got to look at countries with a strict lockdown from day 1 like Cyprus to see that the proof is in the pudding.
The case numbers are meaningless since we don't test enough people. We have a 13% fatality rate compared to 3% in Germany, the only difference being they tested more people. Italy had a tighter lockdown than us and it didn't get them anywhere. Lockdown is just one tool in the box and not even a good one.
We know that the daily cases are higher than reported but the government are looking at the new cases as a measure of how well lock down is working. So if these reported new cases are still going up, then the lockdown isn't working as effitively as they hoped it would
I thought they would be looking at the death toll, those are the trends I've seen attention focussed on but I can't say I watch everything. The actual death rate of coronavirus is closer to 0.6% so they will just find more cases, the more they test.
I watch it closely as I need a plan of how long my business will be closed lol
They look at daily new cases as that is an indicator of how well the lock down is working. If the new cases go down, then people are staying in and not passing the virus on. They look at the new cases, as these are the potential ICU cases that they need to plan for. Remember that this lock down isn't to stop the virus, it's to stop the NHS getting to breaking point with too many critical cases. So the more new cases we have, the more chance we have of the NHS struggling. They know that those admitted to hospital are those who need additional support and those who lose their battle will do so within 2 weeks. So the new cases reported is a good forecast of how stretched our services will be in the future. So it's the new cases that we need to get down and this will have a knock on effect on the death rate.
Well the good news would be that Italy and Spain are clearly over their peak now. We're probably over ours. Second waves are a theory and not a fact. There's no second wave in China yet. America is getting back to work and the government will soon realise that if American companies keep working and British ones don't, there won't be much of an economy left to ever open up. There is of course bad news out there too.
By the way, we're you ever on a channel 4 show about prejudice?
If there is no second wave after a lockdown we have not been told the truth
The virus spread amongst 65 million people in the UK from a mere handful of infected
After a lockdown
63 million will still not have had it
More than a handful will still have it
Go compute !
Nice confirmation bias. How many people do you know in China by the way?
No confirmation bias
I've not heard or read that anywhere
Iv only given an either or
Either out of lockdown we have the same susceptibility as before or I have zero idea why we would not
China is only just out of full lock down do I understand they are still on partial ?
If my maths serves me right it takes a couple of months from a small reservoir unrestricted to spread into the unprotected
Thus dont expect data from China until
A. All restrictions lifted
B. A month 2 after
Again no confirmation bias if you can articulate why if only 1 million out of 65 plus have potential immunity
And restrictions are lifted
Why vulnerable are not still vulnerable
And the virus would not repeat what it has done
Please bear in mind I say after lifting restrictions
Keeping restrictions will indeed keep it manageable
So please illustrate IF the virus is not eradicated why if restrictions are lifted it will not do as currently demonstrated?
Restrictions and lockdown are fairly useless tools really - they only buy time and solve nothing. We need testing. "
Imo Testing for antibodies
Excellent will lead to two tier society though and will need selective isolation
Testing for virus
A perpetual nightmare that will also need isolation alongside
So currently we have
A rock , fucking hard place, a cliff edge , a precipice
Yey  |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
"Graphs are starting to show a downturn and yet people are still calling for tighter lockdowns?
George Orwell must be turning in his grave.
The number of new cases per day isn't going down. That's what you nees to be looking at, not the death rate. The high number of new cases are potential deaths in 2-3 weeks time. As this lockdown is to protect the NHS and not stop the virus, then this means that the current lockdown isn't tight enough as new cases are still rising or if you like, not going down quick enough. You've only got to look at countries with a strict lockdown from day 1 like Cyprus to see that the proof is in the pudding.
The case numbers are meaningless since we don't test enough people. We have a 13% fatality rate compared to 3% in Germany, the only difference being they tested more people. Italy had a tighter lockdown than us and it didn't get them anywhere. Lockdown is just one tool in the box and not even a good one.
We know that the daily cases are higher than reported but the government are looking at the new cases as a measure of how well lock down is working. So if these reported new cases are still going up, then the lockdown isn't working as effitively as they hoped it would
I thought they would be looking at the death toll, those are the trends I've seen attention focussed on but I can't say I watch everything. The actual death rate of coronavirus is closer to 0.6% so they will just find more cases, the more they test.
I watch it closely as I need a plan of how long my business will be closed lol
They look at daily new cases as that is an indicator of how well the lock down is working. If the new cases go down, then people are staying in and not passing the virus on. They look at the new cases, as these are the potential ICU cases that they need to plan for. Remember that this lock down isn't to stop the virus, it's to stop the NHS getting to breaking point with too many critical cases. So the more new cases we have, the more chance we have of the NHS struggling. They know that those admitted to hospital are those who need additional support and those who lose their battle will do so within 2 weeks. So the new cases reported is a good forecast of how stretched our services will be in the future. So it's the new cases that we need to get down and this will have a knock on effect on the death rate.
Well the good news would be that Italy and Spain are clearly over their peak now. We're probably over ours. Second waves are a theory and not a fact. There's no second wave in China yet. America is getting back to work and the government will soon realise that if American companies keep working and British ones don't, there won't be much of an economy left to ever open up. There is of course bad news out there too.
By the way, we're you ever on a channel 4 show about prejudice?
If there is no second wave after a lockdown we have not been told the truth
The virus spread amongst 65 million people in the UK from a mere handful of infected
After a lockdown
63 million will still not have had it
More than a handful will still have it
Go compute !
Nice confirmation bias. How many people do you know in China by the way?
No confirmation bias
I've not heard or read that anywhere
Iv only given an either or
Either out of lockdown we have the same susceptibility as before or I have zero idea why we would not
China is only just out of full lock down do I understand they are still on partial ?
If my maths serves me right it takes a couple of months from a small reservoir unrestricted to spread into the unprotected
Thus dont expect data from China until
A. All restrictions lifted
B. A month 2 after
Again no confirmation bias if you can articulate why if only 1 million out of 65 plus have potential immunity
And restrictions are lifted
Why vulnerable are not still vulnerable
And the virus would not repeat what it has done
Please bear in mind I say after lifting restrictions
Keeping restrictions will indeed keep it manageable
So please illustrate IF the virus is not eradicated why if restrictions are lifted it will not do as currently demonstrated? "
In your head it's either that they report a second wave to confirm your theory or they have a second wave but lie about it. There's no scenario where there just isn't a second wave. The answer to all your other questions is "because it's more complicated than that". For example, "Why vulnerable are not still vulnerable" - because they are dead or immune would be part of that answer. China is in partial lockdown depending on the province. Harbin has a small outbreak at the moment. But Harbin is nowhere near Hubei, which is not particularly close to Guangzhou where the oldest cases have been found. |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
|
By *arkb73Man
over a year ago
Cheshire/Staffs |
"Graphs are starting to show a downturn and yet people are still calling for tighter lockdowns?
George Orwell must be turning in his grave.
The number of new cases per day isn't going down. That's what you nees to be looking at, not the death rate. The high number of new cases are potential deaths in 2-3 weeks time. As this lockdown is to protect the NHS and not stop the virus, then this means that the current lockdown isn't tight enough as new cases are still rising or if you like, not going down quick enough. You've only got to look at countries with a strict lockdown from day 1 like Cyprus to see that the proof is in the pudding.
The case numbers are meaningless since we don't test enough people. We have a 13% fatality rate compared to 3% in Germany, the only difference being they tested more people. Italy had a tighter lockdown than us and it didn't get them anywhere. Lockdown is just one tool in the box and not even a good one.
We know that the daily cases are higher than reported but the government are looking at the new cases as a measure of how well lock down is working. So if these reported new cases are still going up, then the lockdown isn't working as effitively as they hoped it would
I thought they would be looking at the death toll, those are the trends I've seen attention focussed on but I can't say I watch everything. The actual death rate of coronavirus is closer to 0.6% so they will just find more cases, the more they test.
I watch it closely as I need a plan of how long my business will be closed lol
They look at daily new cases as that is an indicator of how well the lock down is working. If the new cases go down, then people are staying in and not passing the virus on. They look at the new cases, as these are the potential ICU cases that they need to plan for. Remember that this lock down isn't to stop the virus, it's to stop the NHS getting to breaking point with too many critical cases. So the more new cases we have, the more chance we have of the NHS struggling. They know that those admitted to hospital are those who need additional support and those who lose their battle will do so within 2 weeks. So the new cases reported is a good forecast of how stretched our services will be in the future. So it's the new cases that we need to get down and this will have a knock on effect on the death rate.
Well the good news would be that Italy and Spain are clearly over their peak now. We're probably over ours. Second waves are a theory and not a fact. There's no second wave in China yet. America is getting back to work and the government will soon realise that if American companies keep working and British ones don't, there won't be much of an economy left to ever open up. There is of course bad news out there too.
By the way, we're you ever on a channel 4 show about prejudice?
If there is no second wave after a lockdown we have not been told the truth
The virus spread amongst 65 million people in the UK from a mere handful of infected
After a lockdown
63 million will still not have had it
More than a handful will still have it
Go compute !
Nice confirmation bias. How many people do you know in China by the way?
No confirmation bias
I've not heard or read that anywhere
Iv only given an either or
Either out of lockdown we have the same susceptibility as before or I have zero idea why we would not
China is only just out of full lock down do I understand they are still on partial ?
If my maths serves me right it takes a couple of months from a small reservoir unrestricted to spread into the unprotected
Thus dont expect data from China until
A. All restrictions lifted
B. A month 2 after
Again no confirmation bias if you can articulate why if only 1 million out of 65 plus have potential immunity
And restrictions are lifted
Why vulnerable are not still vulnerable
And the virus would not repeat what it has done
Please bear in mind I say after lifting restrictions
Keeping restrictions will indeed keep it manageable
So please illustrate IF the virus is not eradicated why if restrictions are lifted it will not do as currently demonstrated?
Restrictions and lockdown are fairly useless tools really - they only buy time and solve nothing. We need testing.
Imo Testing for antibodies
Excellent will lead to two tier society though and will need selective isolation
Testing for virus
A perpetual nightmare that will also need isolation alongside
So currently we have
A rock , fucking hard place, a cliff edge , a precipice
Yey "
Not that much of a nightmare and better than any other option. Drive to work, get a swab done, results given immediately (not beyond the whit of man), carry on.
People have to isolate for all kinds of reasons in ‘normal’ circumstances. If you have the flu, you effectively isolate. This becomes another reason to isolate, another disease on the list. |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
|
By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
"I said right at the start of this if lockdown goes on for very long extended period there would be civil unrest.
Oh if only people knew the real story about lockdown. May be different here than the mainland but 6 weeks won't be the end of it
What’s the real story?
Pm'ed you"
Is it a secret you can't tell us all? I'd like to know too. |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
|
By *arkb73Man
over a year ago
Cheshire/Staffs |
"I said right at the start of this if lockdown goes on for very long extended period there would be civil unrest.
Oh if only people knew the real story about lockdown. May be different here than the mainland but 6 weeks won't be the end of it
What’s the real story?
Pm'ed you
Is it a secret you can't tell us all? I'd like to know too. "
People love drama is what is behind it |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
"Graphs are starting to show a downturn and yet people are still calling for tighter lockdowns?
George Orwell must be turning in his grave.
The number of new cases per day isn't going down. That's what you nees to be looking at, not the death rate. The high number of new cases are potential deaths in 2-3 weeks time. As this lockdown is to protect the NHS and not stop the virus, then this means that the current lockdown isn't tight enough as new cases are still rising or if you like, not going down quick enough. You've only got to look at countries with a strict lockdown from day 1 like Cyprus to see that the proof is in the pudding.
The case numbers are meaningless since we don't test enough people. We have a 13% fatality rate compared to 3% in Germany, the only difference being they tested more people. Italy had a tighter lockdown than us and it didn't get them anywhere. Lockdown is just one tool in the box and not even a good one.
We know that the daily cases are higher than reported but the government are looking at the new cases as a measure of how well lock down is working. So if these reported new cases are still going up, then the lockdown isn't working as effitively as they hoped it would
I thought they would be looking at the death toll, those are the trends I've seen attention focussed on but I can't say I watch everything. The actual death rate of coronavirus is closer to 0.6% so they will just find more cases, the more they test.
I watch it closely as I need a plan of how long my business will be closed lol
They look at daily new cases as that is an indicator of how well the lock down is working. If the new cases go down, then people are staying in and not passing the virus on. They look at the new cases, as these are the potential ICU cases that they need to plan for. Remember that this lock down isn't to stop the virus, it's to stop the NHS getting to breaking point with too many critical cases. So the more new cases we have, the more chance we have of the NHS struggling. They know that those admitted to hospital are those who need additional support and those who lose their battle will do so within 2 weeks. So the new cases reported is a good forecast of how stretched our services will be in the future. So it's the new cases that we need to get down and this will have a knock on effect on the death rate.
Well the good news would be that Italy and Spain are clearly over their peak now. We're probably over ours. Second waves are a theory and not a fact. There's no second wave in China yet. America is getting back to work and the government will soon realise that if American companies keep working and British ones don't, there won't be much of an economy left to ever open up. There is of course bad news out there too.
By the way, we're you ever on a channel 4 show about prejudice?
If there is no second wave after a lockdown we have not been told the truth
The virus spread amongst 65 million people in the UK from a mere handful of infected
After a lockdown
63 million will still not have had it
More than a handful will still have it
Go compute !
Nice confirmation bias. How many people do you know in China by the way?
No confirmation bias
I've not heard or read that anywhere
Iv only given an either or
Either out of lockdown we have the same susceptibility as before or I have zero idea why we would not
China is only just out of full lock down do I understand they are still on partial ?
If my maths serves me right it takes a couple of months from a small reservoir unrestricted to spread into the unprotected
Thus dont expect data from China until
A. All restrictions lifted
B. A month 2 after
Again no confirmation bias if you can articulate why if only 1 million out of 65 plus have potential immunity
And restrictions are lifted
Why vulnerable are not still vulnerable
And the virus would not repeat what it has done
Please bear in mind I say after lifting restrictions
Keeping restrictions will indeed keep it manageable
So please illustrate IF the virus is not eradicated why if restrictions are lifted it will not do as currently demonstrated?
In your head it's either that they report a second wave to confirm your theory or they have a second wave but lie about it. There's no scenario where there just isn't a second wave. The answer to all your other questions is "because it's more complicated than that". For example, "Why vulnerable are not still vulnerable" - because they are dead or immune would be part of that answer. China is in partial lockdown depending on the province. Harbin has a small outbreak at the moment. But Harbin is nowhere near Hubei, which is not particularly close to Guangzhou where the oldest cases have been found."
Oh no you miss read me I'm certain not saying China is lieing
I'm saying either I'm mis informed about how the virus spreads or in time . I dont think China is in a position where a quick second wave is going to occur they are still following restrictions 
Erm
Apparently we are on a lockdown because there are a lot of undead in infected vulnerables ????
Thus you make no sense
They will still exist as erm vulnerable???
So again out we pop
No social distancing no restrictions lots of sex
As long as a couple of people in the UK have it it will come back
Please, pretty please prove me wrong ??
However there is no world evidence as that situation has not yet occured |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
"Graphs are starting to show a downturn and yet people are still calling for tighter lockdowns?
George Orwell must be turning in his grave.
The number of new cases per day isn't going down. That's what you nees to be looking at, not the death rate. The high number of new cases are potential deaths in 2-3 weeks time. As this lockdown is to protect the NHS and not stop the virus, then this means that the current lockdown isn't tight enough as new cases are still rising or if you like, not going down quick enough. You've only got to look at countries with a strict lockdown from day 1 like Cyprus to see that the proof is in the pudding.
The case numbers are meaningless since we don't test enough people. We have a 13% fatality rate compared to 3% in Germany, the only difference being they tested more people. Italy had a tighter lockdown than us and it didn't get them anywhere. Lockdown is just one tool in the box and not even a good one.
We know that the daily cases are higher than reported but the government are looking at the new cases as a measure of how well lock down is working. So if these reported new cases are still going up, then the lockdown isn't working as effitively as they hoped it would
I thought they would be looking at the death toll, those are the trends I've seen attention focussed on but I can't say I watch everything. The actual death rate of coronavirus is closer to 0.6% so they will just find more cases, the more they test.
I watch it closely as I need a plan of how long my business will be closed lol
They look at daily new cases as that is an indicator of how well the lock down is working. If the new cases go down, then people are staying in and not passing the virus on. They look at the new cases, as these are the potential ICU cases that they need to plan for. Remember that this lock down isn't to stop the virus, it's to stop the NHS getting to breaking point with too many critical cases. So the more new cases we have, the more chance we have of the NHS struggling. They know that those admitted to hospital are those who need additional support and those who lose their battle will do so within 2 weeks. So the new cases reported is a good forecast of how stretched our services will be in the future. So it's the new cases that we need to get down and this will have a knock on effect on the death rate.
Well the good news would be that Italy and Spain are clearly over their peak now. We're probably over ours. Second waves are a theory and not a fact. There's no second wave in China yet. America is getting back to work and the government will soon realise that if American companies keep working and British ones don't, there won't be much of an economy left to ever open up. There is of course bad news out there too.
By the way, we're you ever on a channel 4 show about prejudice?
If there is no second wave after a lockdown we have not been told the truth
The virus spread amongst 65 million people in the UK from a mere handful of infected
After a lockdown
63 million will still not have had it
More than a handful will still have it
Go compute !
Nice confirmation bias. How many people do you know in China by the way?
No confirmation bias
I've not heard or read that anywhere
Iv only given an either or
Either out of lockdown we have the same susceptibility as before or I have zero idea why we would not
China is only just out of full lock down do I understand they are still on partial ?
If my maths serves me right it takes a couple of months from a small reservoir unrestricted to spread into the unprotected
Thus dont expect data from China until
A. All restrictions lifted
B. A month 2 after
Again no confirmation bias if you can articulate why if only 1 million out of 65 plus have potential immunity
And restrictions are lifted
Why vulnerable are not still vulnerable
And the virus would not repeat what it has done
Please bear in mind I say after lifting restrictions
Keeping restrictions will indeed keep it manageable
So please illustrate IF the virus is not eradicated why if restrictions are lifted it will not do as currently demonstrated?
Restrictions and lockdown are fairly useless tools really - they only buy time and solve nothing. We need testing.
Imo Testing for antibodies
Excellent will lead to two tier society though and will need selective isolation
Testing for virus
A perpetual nightmare that will also need isolation alongside
So currently we have
A rock , fucking hard place, a cliff edge , a precipice
Yey
Not that much of a nightmare and better than any other option. Drive to work, get a swab done, results given immediately (not beyond the whit of man), carry on.
People have to isolate for all kinds of reasons in ‘normal’ circumstances. If you have the flu, you effectively isolate. This becomes another reason to isolate, another disease on the list. "
So tested every day ok that's cool x |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
|
By *arkb73Man
over a year ago
Cheshire/Staffs |
"Graphs are starting to show a downturn and yet people are still calling for tighter lockdowns?
George Orwell must be turning in his grave.
The number of new cases per day isn't going down. That's what you nees to be looking at, not the death rate. The high number of new cases are potential deaths in 2-3 weeks time. As this lockdown is to protect the NHS and not stop the virus, then this means that the current lockdown isn't tight enough as new cases are still rising or if you like, not going down quick enough. You've only got to look at countries with a strict lockdown from day 1 like Cyprus to see that the proof is in the pudding.
The case numbers are meaningless since we don't test enough people. We have a 13% fatality rate compared to 3% in Germany, the only difference being they tested more people. Italy had a tighter lockdown than us and it didn't get them anywhere. Lockdown is just one tool in the box and not even a good one.
We know that the daily cases are higher than reported but the government are looking at the new cases as a measure of how well lock down is working. So if these reported new cases are still going up, then the lockdown isn't working as effitively as they hoped it would
I thought they would be looking at the death toll, those are the trends I've seen attention focussed on but I can't say I watch everything. The actual death rate of coronavirus is closer to 0.6% so they will just find more cases, the more they test.
I watch it closely as I need a plan of how long my business will be closed lol
They look at daily new cases as that is an indicator of how well the lock down is working. If the new cases go down, then people are staying in and not passing the virus on. They look at the new cases, as these are the potential ICU cases that they need to plan for. Remember that this lock down isn't to stop the virus, it's to stop the NHS getting to breaking point with too many critical cases. So the more new cases we have, the more chance we have of the NHS struggling. They know that those admitted to hospital are those who need additional support and those who lose their battle will do so within 2 weeks. So the new cases reported is a good forecast of how stretched our services will be in the future. So it's the new cases that we need to get down and this will have a knock on effect on the death rate.
Well the good news would be that Italy and Spain are clearly over their peak now. We're probably over ours. Second waves are a theory and not a fact. There's no second wave in China yet. America is getting back to work and the government will soon realise that if American companies keep working and British ones don't, there won't be much of an economy left to ever open up. There is of course bad news out there too.
By the way, we're you ever on a channel 4 show about prejudice?
If there is no second wave after a lockdown we have not been told the truth
The virus spread amongst 65 million people in the UK from a mere handful of infected
After a lockdown
63 million will still not have had it
More than a handful will still have it
Go compute !
Nice confirmation bias. How many people do you know in China by the way?
No confirmation bias
I've not heard or read that anywhere
Iv only given an either or
Either out of lockdown we have the same susceptibility as before or I have zero idea why we would not
China is only just out of full lock down do I understand they are still on partial ?
If my maths serves me right it takes a couple of months from a small reservoir unrestricted to spread into the unprotected
Thus dont expect data from China until
A. All restrictions lifted
B. A month 2 after
Again no confirmation bias if you can articulate why if only 1 million out of 65 plus have potential immunity
And restrictions are lifted
Why vulnerable are not still vulnerable
And the virus would not repeat what it has done
Please bear in mind I say after lifting restrictions
Keeping restrictions will indeed keep it manageable
So please illustrate IF the virus is not eradicated why if restrictions are lifted it will not do as currently demonstrated?
Restrictions and lockdown are fairly useless tools really - they only buy time and solve nothing. We need testing.
Imo Testing for antibodies
Excellent will lead to two tier society though and will need selective isolation
Testing for virus
A perpetual nightmare that will also need isolation alongside
So currently we have
A rock , fucking hard place, a cliff edge , a precipice
Yey
Not that much of a nightmare and better than any other option. Drive to work, get a swab done, results given immediately (not beyond the whit of man), carry on.
People have to isolate for all kinds of reasons in ‘normal’ circumstances. If you have the flu, you effectively isolate. This becomes another reason to isolate, another disease on the list.
So tested every day ok that's cool x"
Why not? Hardly the worst thing in the world is it? I’d prefer that to gasping my last or being stuck inside for ten months or whatever. |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
"Graphs are starting to show a downturn and yet people are still calling for tighter lockdowns?
George Orwell must be turning in his grave.
The number of new cases per day isn't going down. That's what you nees to be looking at, not the death rate. The high number of new cases are potential deaths in 2-3 weeks time. As this lockdown is to protect the NHS and not stop the virus, then this means that the current lockdown isn't tight enough as new cases are still rising or if you like, not going down quick enough. You've only got to look at countries with a strict lockdown from day 1 like Cyprus to see that the proof is in the pudding.
The case numbers are meaningless since we don't test enough people. We have a 13% fatality rate compared to 3% in Germany, the only difference being they tested more people. Italy had a tighter lockdown than us and it didn't get them anywhere. Lockdown is just one tool in the box and not even a good one.
We know that the daily cases are higher than reported but the government are looking at the new cases as a measure of how well lock down is working. So if these reported new cases are still going up, then the lockdown isn't working as effitively as they hoped it would
I thought they would be looking at the death toll, those are the trends I've seen attention focussed on but I can't say I watch everything. The actual death rate of coronavirus is closer to 0.6% so they will just find more cases, the more they test.
I watch it closely as I need a plan of how long my business will be closed lol
They look at daily new cases as that is an indicator of how well the lock down is working. If the new cases go down, then people are staying in and not passing the virus on. They look at the new cases, as these are the potential ICU cases that they need to plan for. Remember that this lock down isn't to stop the virus, it's to stop the NHS getting to breaking point with too many critical cases. So the more new cases we have, the more chance we have of the NHS struggling. They know that those admitted to hospital are those who need additional support and those who lose their battle will do so within 2 weeks. So the new cases reported is a good forecast of how stretched our services will be in the future. So it's the new cases that we need to get down and this will have a knock on effect on the death rate.
Well the good news would be that Italy and Spain are clearly over their peak now. We're probably over ours. Second waves are a theory and not a fact. There's no second wave in China yet. America is getting back to work and the government will soon realise that if American companies keep working and British ones don't, there won't be much of an economy left to ever open up. There is of course bad news out there too.
By the way, we're you ever on a channel 4 show about prejudice?
If there is no second wave after a lockdown we have not been told the truth
The virus spread amongst 65 million people in the UK from a mere handful of infected
After a lockdown
63 million will still not have had it
More than a handful will still have it
Go compute !
Nice confirmation bias. How many people do you know in China by the way?
No confirmation bias
I've not heard or read that anywhere
Iv only given an either or
Either out of lockdown we have the same susceptibility as before or I have zero idea why we would not
China is only just out of full lock down do I understand they are still on partial ?
If my maths serves me right it takes a couple of months from a small reservoir unrestricted to spread into the unprotected
Thus dont expect data from China until
A. All restrictions lifted
B. A month 2 after
Again no confirmation bias if you can articulate why if only 1 million out of 65 plus have potential immunity
And restrictions are lifted
Why vulnerable are not still vulnerable
And the virus would not repeat what it has done
Please bear in mind I say after lifting restrictions
Keeping restrictions will indeed keep it manageable
So please illustrate IF the virus is not eradicated why if restrictions are lifted it will not do as currently demonstrated?
In your head it's either that they report a second wave to confirm your theory or they have a second wave but lie about it. There's no scenario where there just isn't a second wave. The answer to all your other questions is "because it's more complicated than that". For example, "Why vulnerable are not still vulnerable" - because they are dead or immune would be part of that answer. China is in partial lockdown depending on the province. Harbin has a small outbreak at the moment. But Harbin is nowhere near Hubei, which is not particularly close to Guangzhou where the oldest cases have been found.
Oh no you miss read me I'm certain not saying China is lieing
I'm saying either I'm mis informed about how the virus spreads or in time . I dont think China is in a position where a quick second wave is going to occur they are still following restrictions
Erm
Apparently we are on a lockdown because there are a lot of undead in infected vulnerables ????
Thus you make no sense
They will still exist as erm vulnerable???
So again out we pop
No social distancing no restrictions lots of sex
As long as a couple of people in the UK have it it will come back
Please, pretty please prove me wrong ??
However there is no world evidence as that situation has not yet occured "
Depends what you believe about reinfecton rates |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
"Why has no-one mentioned a crap Tory government as being the main ingredient in the recipe for civil unrest yet? They certainly need to go.
When old societies are dying new ones are formed by those who are not afraid to be insecure.
Didn’t take long.
Personally I’d blame the amount of leftie’s ranting and blowing hot air, not the government."
Ooooooo yeah them terrible lefties let’s blame them again ... load of crap |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
"Graphs are starting to show a downturn and yet people are still calling for tighter lockdowns?
George Orwell must be turning in his grave.
The number of new cases per day isn't going down. That's what you nees to be looking at, not the death rate. The high number of new cases are potential deaths in 2-3 weeks time. As this lockdown is to protect the NHS and not stop the virus, then this means that the current lockdown isn't tight enough as new cases are still rising or if you like, not going down quick enough. You've only got to look at countries with a strict lockdown from day 1 like Cyprus to see that the proof is in the pudding.
The case numbers are meaningless since we don't test enough people. We have a 13% fatality rate compared to 3% in Germany, the only difference being they tested more people. Italy had a tighter lockdown than us and it didn't get them anywhere. Lockdown is just one tool in the box and not even a good one.
We know that the daily cases are higher than reported but the government are looking at the new cases as a measure of how well lock down is working. So if these reported new cases are still going up, then the lockdown isn't working as effitively as they hoped it would
I thought they would be looking at the death toll, those are the trends I've seen attention focussed on but I can't say I watch everything. The actual death rate of coronavirus is closer to 0.6% so they will just find more cases, the more they test.
I watch it closely as I need a plan of how long my business will be closed lol
They look at daily new cases as that is an indicator of how well the lock down is working. If the new cases go down, then people are staying in and not passing the virus on. They look at the new cases, as these are the potential ICU cases that they need to plan for. Remember that this lock down isn't to stop the virus, it's to stop the NHS getting to breaking point with too many critical cases. So the more new cases we have, the more chance we have of the NHS struggling. They know that those admitted to hospital are those who need additional support and those who lose their battle will do so within 2 weeks. So the new cases reported is a good forecast of how stretched our services will be in the future. So it's the new cases that we need to get down and this will have a knock on effect on the death rate.
Well the good news would be that Italy and Spain are clearly over their peak now. We're probably over ours. Second waves are a theory and not a fact. There's no second wave in China yet. America is getting back to work and the government will soon realise that if American companies keep working and British ones don't, there won't be much of an economy left to ever open up. There is of course bad news out there too.
By the way, we're you ever on a channel 4 show about prejudice?
If there is no second wave after a lockdown we have not been told the truth
The virus spread amongst 65 million people in the UK from a mere handful of infected
After a lockdown
63 million will still not have had it
More than a handful will still have it
Go compute !
Nice confirmation bias. How many people do you know in China by the way?
No confirmation bias
I've not heard or read that anywhere
Iv only given an either or
Either out of lockdown we have the same susceptibility as before or I have zero idea why we would not
China is only just out of full lock down do I understand they are still on partial ?
If my maths serves me right it takes a couple of months from a small reservoir unrestricted to spread into the unprotected
Thus dont expect data from China until
A. All restrictions lifted
B. A month 2 after
Again no confirmation bias if you can articulate why if only 1 million out of 65 plus have potential immunity
And restrictions are lifted
Why vulnerable are not still vulnerable
And the virus would not repeat what it has done
Please bear in mind I say after lifting restrictions
Keeping restrictions will indeed keep it manageable
So please illustrate IF the virus is not eradicated why if restrictions are lifted it will not do as currently demonstrated?
In your head it's either that they report a second wave to confirm your theory or they have a second wave but lie about it. There's no scenario where there just isn't a second wave. The answer to all your other questions is "because it's more complicated than that". For example, "Why vulnerable are not still vulnerable" - because they are dead or immune would be part of that answer. China is in partial lockdown depending on the province. Harbin has a small outbreak at the moment. But Harbin is nowhere near Hubei, which is not particularly close to Guangzhou where the oldest cases have been found.
Oh no you miss read me I'm certain not saying China is lieing
I'm saying either I'm mis informed about how the virus spreads or in time . I dont think China is in a position where a quick second wave is going to occur they are still following restrictions
Erm
Apparently we are on a lockdown because there are a lot of undead in infected vulnerables ????
Thus you make no sense
They will still exist as erm vulnerable???
So again out we pop
No social distancing no restrictions lots of sex
As long as a couple of people in the UK have it it will come back
Please, pretty please prove me wrong ??
However there is no world evidence as that situation has not yet occured
Depends what you believe about reinfecton rates"
Not really It may depend on what you believe is the correct infection figure
The world is full of billions
As of today its suggested only 2.5 million
The UK a reported 100 000 cases over 65 million population
Even if you gross these up by a factor of 10 we are only about 1 percent UK or world population
Thus the reinfection point is subdued some what if most of the world allegedly has not had it ? The potential for the re infection only exacerbates the case for further waves with social restrictions lifted
|
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
|
By *arkb73Man
over a year ago
Cheshire/Staffs |
"Graphs are starting to show a downturn and yet people are still calling for tighter lockdowns?
George Orwell must be turning in his grave.
The number of new cases per day isn't going down. That's what you nees to be looking at, not the death rate. The high number of new cases are potential deaths in 2-3 weeks time. As this lockdown is to protect the NHS and not stop the virus, then this means that the current lockdown isn't tight enough as new cases are still rising or if you like, not going down quick enough. You've only got to look at countries with a strict lockdown from day 1 like Cyprus to see that the proof is in the pudding.
The case numbers are meaningless since we don't test enough people. We have a 13% fatality rate compared to 3% in Germany, the only difference being they tested more people. Italy had a tighter lockdown than us and it didn't get them anywhere. Lockdown is just one tool in the box and not even a good one.
We know that the daily cases are higher than reported but the government are looking at the new cases as a measure of how well lock down is working. So if these reported new cases are still going up, then the lockdown isn't working as effitively as they hoped it would
I thought they would be looking at the death toll, those are the trends I've seen attention focussed on but I can't say I watch everything. The actual death rate of coronavirus is closer to 0.6% so they will just find more cases, the more they test.
I watch it closely as I need a plan of how long my business will be closed lol
They look at daily new cases as that is an indicator of how well the lock down is working. If the new cases go down, then people are staying in and not passing the virus on. They look at the new cases, as these are the potential ICU cases that they need to plan for. Remember that this lock down isn't to stop the virus, it's to stop the NHS getting to breaking point with too many critical cases. So the more new cases we have, the more chance we have of the NHS struggling. They know that those admitted to hospital are those who need additional support and those who lose their battle will do so within 2 weeks. So the new cases reported is a good forecast of how stretched our services will be in the future. So it's the new cases that we need to get down and this will have a knock on effect on the death rate.
Well the good news would be that Italy and Spain are clearly over their peak now. We're probably over ours. Second waves are a theory and not a fact. There's no second wave in China yet. America is getting back to work and the government will soon realise that if American companies keep working and British ones don't, there won't be much of an economy left to ever open up. There is of course bad news out there too.
By the way, we're you ever on a channel 4 show about prejudice?
If there is no second wave after a lockdown we have not been told the truth
The virus spread amongst 65 million people in the UK from a mere handful of infected
After a lockdown
63 million will still not have had it
More than a handful will still have it
Go compute !
Nice confirmation bias. How many people do you know in China by the way?
No confirmation bias
I've not heard or read that anywhere
Iv only given an either or
Either out of lockdown we have the same susceptibility as before or I have zero idea why we would not
China is only just out of full lock down do I understand they are still on partial ?
If my maths serves me right it takes a couple of months from a small reservoir unrestricted to spread into the unprotected
Thus dont expect data from China until
A. All restrictions lifted
B. A month 2 after
Again no confirmation bias if you can articulate why if only 1 million out of 65 plus have potential immunity
And restrictions are lifted
Why vulnerable are not still vulnerable
And the virus would not repeat what it has done
Please bear in mind I say after lifting restrictions
Keeping restrictions will indeed keep it manageable
So please illustrate IF the virus is not eradicated why if restrictions are lifted it will not do as currently demonstrated?
In your head it's either that they report a second wave to confirm your theory or they have a second wave but lie about it. There's no scenario where there just isn't a second wave. The answer to all your other questions is "because it's more complicated than that". For example, "Why vulnerable are not still vulnerable" - because they are dead or immune would be part of that answer. China is in partial lockdown depending on the province. Harbin has a small outbreak at the moment. But Harbin is nowhere near Hubei, which is not particularly close to Guangzhou where the oldest cases have been found.
Oh no you miss read me I'm certain not saying China is lieing
I'm saying either I'm mis informed about how the virus spreads or in time . I dont think China is in a position where a quick second wave is going to occur they are still following restrictions
Erm
Apparently we are on a lockdown because there are a lot of undead in infected vulnerables ????
Thus you make no sense
They will still exist as erm vulnerable???
So again out we pop
No social distancing no restrictions lots of sex
As long as a couple of people in the UK have it it will come back
Please, pretty please prove me wrong ??
However there is no world evidence as that situation has not yet occured
Depends what you believe about reinfecton rates"
I’m sure reinfection is possible, as with other Coronaviruses. But humans evolved to deal with those and we will with this one. That evolution will take time though so we need to test test test in the meantime. We cannot continue to lockdown, it will damage us more than it helps us in the end. We need to buy time to develop millions of tests and then go from there. Test and isolate until this becomes a disease we live with. |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
"
They will still exist as erm vulnerable???
So again out we pop
No social distancing no restrictions lots of sex
As long as a couple of people in the UK have it it will come back
Please, pretty please prove me wrong ??
However there is no world evidence as that situation has not yet occured
Depends what you believe about reinfecton rates
Not really It may depend on what you believe is the correct infection figure
The world is full of billions
As of today its suggested only 2.5 million
The UK a reported 100 000 cases over 65 million population
Even if you gross these up by a factor of 10 we are only about 1 percent UK or world population
Thus the reinfection point is subdued some what if most of the world allegedly has not had it ? The potential for the re infection only exacerbates the case for further waves with social restrictions lifted
"
An very large chunk of the world are asymptomatic to it because of their genetics. Then we are adding some people who are immune because they've already had it. The dead don't die twice. These are all reasons the rate of infection slows. |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
"Graphs are starting to show a downturn and yet people are still calling for tighter lockdowns?
George Orwell must be turning in his grave.
The number of new cases per day isn't going down. That's what you nees to be looking at, not the death rate. The high number of new cases are potential deaths in 2-3 weeks time. As this lockdown is to protect the NHS and not stop the virus, then this means that the current lockdown isn't tight enough as new cases are still rising or if you like, not going down quick enough. You've only got to look at countries with a strict lockdown from day 1 like Cyprus to see that the proof is in the pudding.
The case numbers are meaningless since we don't test enough people. We have a 13% fatality rate compared to 3% in Germany, the only difference being they tested more people. Italy had a tighter lockdown than us and it didn't get them anywhere. Lockdown is just one tool in the box and not even a good one.
We know that the daily cases are higher than reported but the government are looking at the new cases as a measure of how well lock down is working. So if these reported new cases are still going up, then the lockdown isn't working as effitively as they hoped it would
I thought they would be looking at the death toll, those are the trends I've seen attention focussed on but I can't say I watch everything. The actual death rate of coronavirus is closer to 0.6% so they will just find more cases, the more they test.
I watch it closely as I need a plan of how long my business will be closed lol
They look at daily new cases as that is an indicator of how well the lock down is working. If the new cases go down, then people are staying in and not passing the virus on. They look at the new cases, as these are the potential ICU cases that they need to plan for. Remember that this lock down isn't to stop the virus, it's to stop the NHS getting to breaking point with too many critical cases. So the more new cases we have, the more chance we have of the NHS struggling. They know that those admitted to hospital are those who need additional support and those who lose their battle will do so within 2 weeks. So the new cases reported is a good forecast of how stretched our services will be in the future. So it's the new cases that we need to get down and this will have a knock on effect on the death rate.
Well the good news would be that Italy and Spain are clearly over their peak now. We're probably over ours. Second waves are a theory and not a fact. There's no second wave in China yet. America is getting back to work and the government will soon realise that if American companies keep working and British ones don't, there won't be much of an economy left to ever open up. There is of course bad news out there too.
By the way, we're you ever on a channel 4 show about prejudice?
If there is no second wave after a lockdown we have not been told the truth
The virus spread amongst 65 million people in the UK from a mere handful of infected
After a lockdown
63 million will still not have had it
More than a handful will still have it
Go compute !
Nice confirmation bias. How many people do you know in China by the way?
No confirmation bias
I've not heard or read that anywhere
Iv only given an either or
Either out of lockdown we have the same susceptibility as before or I have zero idea why we would not
China is only just out of full lock down do I understand they are still on partial ?
If my maths serves me right it takes a couple of months from a small reservoir unrestricted to spread into the unprotected
Thus dont expect data from China until
A. All restrictions lifted
B. A month 2 after
Again no confirmation bias if you can articulate why if only 1 million out of 65 plus have potential immunity
And restrictions are lifted
Why vulnerable are not still vulnerable
And the virus would not repeat what it has done
Please bear in mind I say after lifting restrictions
Keeping restrictions will indeed keep it manageable
So please illustrate IF the virus is not eradicated why if restrictions are lifted it will not do as currently demonstrated?
In your head it's either that they report a second wave to confirm your theory or they have a second wave but lie about it. There's no scenario where there just isn't a second wave. The answer to all your other questions is "because it's more complicated than that". For example, "Why vulnerable are not still vulnerable" - because they are dead or immune would be part of that answer. China is in partial lockdown depending on the province. Harbin has a small outbreak at the moment. But Harbin is nowhere near Hubei, which is not particularly close to Guangzhou where the oldest cases have been found.
Oh no you miss read me I'm certain not saying China is lieing
I'm saying either I'm mis informed about how the virus spreads or in time . I dont think China is in a position where a quick second wave is going to occur they are still following restrictions
Erm
Apparently we are on a lockdown because there are a lot of undead in infected vulnerables ????
Thus you make no sense
They will still exist as erm vulnerable???
So again out we pop
No social distancing no restrictions lots of sex
As long as a couple of people in the UK have it it will come back
Please, pretty please prove me wrong ??
However there is no world evidence as that situation has not yet occured
Depends what you believe about reinfecton rates"
Not really It may depend on what you believe is the correct infection figure
The world is full of billions
As of today its suggested only 2.5 million
The UK a reported 100 000 cases over 65 million population
Even if you gross these up by a factor of 10 we are only about 1 percent UK or world population
Thus the reinfection point is subdued some what if most of the world allegedly has not had it ? The potential for the re infection only exacerbates the case for further waves with social restrictions lifted
Let's look at the facts
A bat infects 5 humans
They mingle freely
After 2 ish months
1 million worldwide become infected
A lockdown of various intensities
Slows rate we now have a reported 2.5 million
I guess world wide there will be in existence more than 6 un known cases
At any point restrictions are lifted it will grow again slow but exponentially
To avoid this restrictions required or vaccine
So please illustrate why a second wave is not inevitable if the facts are as disclosed about how the virus works and the minority who have been affected |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
"Graphs are starting to show a downturn and yet people are still calling for tighter lockdowns?
George Orwell must be turning in his grave.
The number of new cases per day isn't going down. That's what you nees to be looking at, not the death rate. The high number of new cases are potential deaths in 2-3 weeks time. As this lockdown is to protect the NHS and not stop the virus, then this means that the current lockdown isn't tight enough as new cases are still rising or if you like, not going down quick enough. You've only got to look at countries with a strict lockdown from day 1 like Cyprus to see that the proof is in the pudding.
The case numbers are meaningless since we don't test enough people. We have a 13% fatality rate compared to 3% in Germany, the only difference being they tested more people. Italy had a tighter lockdown than us and it didn't get them anywhere. Lockdown is just one tool in the box and not even a good one.
We know that the daily cases are higher than reported but the government are looking at the new cases as a measure of how well lock down is working. So if these reported new cases are still going up, then the lockdown isn't working as effitively as they hoped it would
I thought they would be looking at the death toll, those are the trends I've seen attention focussed on but I can't say I watch everything. The actual death rate of coronavirus is closer to 0.6% so they will just find more cases, the more they test.
I watch it closely as I need a plan of how long my business will be closed lol
They look at daily new cases as that is an indicator of how well the lock down is working. If the new cases go down, then people are staying in and not passing the virus on. They look at the new cases, as these are the potential ICU cases that they need to plan for. Remember that this lock down isn't to stop the virus, it's to stop the NHS getting to breaking point with too many critical cases. So the more new cases we have, the more chance we have of the NHS struggling. They know that those admitted to hospital are those who need additional support and those who lose their battle will do so within 2 weeks. So the new cases reported is a good forecast of how stretched our services will be in the future. So it's the new cases that we need to get down and this will have a knock on effect on the death rate.
Well the good news would be that Italy and Spain are clearly over their peak now. We're probably over ours. Second waves are a theory and not a fact. There's no second wave in China yet. America is getting back to work and the government will soon realise that if American companies keep working and British ones don't, there won't be much of an economy left to ever open up. There is of course bad news out there too.
By the way, we're you ever on a channel 4 show about prejudice?
If there is no second wave after a lockdown we have not been told the truth
The virus spread amongst 65 million people in the UK from a mere handful of infected
After a lockdown
63 million will still not have had it
More than a handful will still have it
Go compute !
Nice confirmation bias. How many people do you know in China by the way?
No confirmation bias
I've not heard or read that anywhere
Iv only given an either or
Either out of lockdown we have the same susceptibility as before or I have zero idea why we would not
China is only just out of full lock down do I understand they are still on partial ?
If my maths serves me right it takes a couple of months from a small reservoir unrestricted to spread into the unprotected
Thus dont expect data from China until
A. All restrictions lifted
B. A month 2 after
Again no confirmation bias if you can articulate why if only 1 million out of 65 plus have potential immunity
And restrictions are lifted
Why vulnerable are not still vulnerable
And the virus would not repeat what it has done
Please bear in mind I say after lifting restrictions
Keeping restrictions will indeed keep it manageable
So please illustrate IF the virus is not eradicated why if restrictions are lifted it will not do as currently demonstrated?
In your head it's either that they report a second wave to confirm your theory or they have a second wave but lie about it. There's no scenario where there just isn't a second wave. The answer to all your other questions is "because it's more complicated than that". For example, "Why vulnerable are not still vulnerable" - because they are dead or immune would be part of that answer. China is in partial lockdown depending on the province. Harbin has a small outbreak at the moment. But Harbin is nowhere near Hubei, which is not particularly close to Guangzhou where the oldest cases have been found.
Oh no you miss read me I'm certain not saying China is lieing
I'm saying either I'm mis informed about how the virus spreads or in time . I dont think China is in a position where a quick second wave is going to occur they are still following restrictions
Erm
Apparently we are on a lockdown because there are a lot of undead in infected vulnerables ????
Thus you make no sense
They will still exist as erm vulnerable???
So again out we pop
No social distancing no restrictions lots of sex
As long as a couple of people in the UK have it it will come back
Please, pretty please prove me wrong ??
However there is no world evidence as that situation has not yet occured
Depends what you believe about reinfecton rates
I’m sure reinfection is possible, as with other Coronaviruses. But humans evolved to deal with those and we will with this one. That evolution will take time though so we need to test test test in the meantime. We cannot continue to lockdown, it will damage us more than it helps us in the end. We need to buy time to develop millions of tests and then go from there. Test and isolate until this becomes a disease we live with. "
On the planet there are billions in the UK 65 million
Testing everyone every couple of days may allow us some extra freedom |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
"
They will still exist as erm vulnerable???
So again out we pop
No social distancing no restrictions lots of sex
As long as a couple of people in the UK have it it will come back
Please, pretty please prove me wrong ??
However there is no world evidence as that situation has not yet occured
Depends what you believe about reinfecton rates
Not really It may depend on what you believe is the correct infection figure
The world is full of billions
As of today its suggested only 2.5 million
The UK a reported 100 000 cases over 65 million population
Even if you gross these up by a factor of 10 we are only about 1 percent UK or world population
Thus the reinfection point is subdued some what if most of the world allegedly has not had it ? The potential for the re infection only exacerbates the case for further waves with social restrictions lifted
An very large chunk of the world are asymptomatic to it because of their genetics. Then we are adding some people who are immune because they've already had it. The dead don't die twice. These are all reasons the rate of infection slows."
I did gross up by 10
Ate you trying to suggest a larger factor ??
UK says
100 000
I suggest 1000 000 just over 1 percent
You're suggesting?
Oh and let's not forget most of our vulnerable have been locked up so still ready and waiting
|
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
|
By *arkb73Man
over a year ago
Cheshire/Staffs |
"Graphs are starting to show a downturn and yet people are still calling for tighter lockdowns?
George Orwell must be turning in his grave.
The number of new cases per day isn't going down. That's what you nees to be looking at, not the death rate. The high number of new cases are potential deaths in 2-3 weeks time. As this lockdown is to protect the NHS and not stop the virus, then this means that the current lockdown isn't tight enough as new cases are still rising or if you like, not going down quick enough. You've only got to look at countries with a strict lockdown from day 1 like Cyprus to see that the proof is in the pudding.
The case numbers are meaningless since we don't test enough people. We have a 13% fatality rate compared to 3% in Germany, the only difference being they tested more people. Italy had a tighter lockdown than us and it didn't get them anywhere. Lockdown is just one tool in the box and not even a good one.
We know that the daily cases are higher than reported but the government are looking at the new cases as a measure of how well lock down is working. So if these reported new cases are still going up, then the lockdown isn't working as effitively as they hoped it would
I thought they would be looking at the death toll, those are the trends I've seen attention focussed on but I can't say I watch everything. The actual death rate of coronavirus is closer to 0.6% so they will just find more cases, the more they test.
I watch it closely as I need a plan of how long my business will be closed lol
They look at daily new cases as that is an indicator of how well the lock down is working. If the new cases go down, then people are staying in and not passing the virus on. They look at the new cases, as these are the potential ICU cases that they need to plan for. Remember that this lock down isn't to stop the virus, it's to stop the NHS getting to breaking point with too many critical cases. So the more new cases we have, the more chance we have of the NHS struggling. They know that those admitted to hospital are those who need additional support and those who lose their battle will do so within 2 weeks. So the new cases reported is a good forecast of how stretched our services will be in the future. So it's the new cases that we need to get down and this will have a knock on effect on the death rate.
Well the good news would be that Italy and Spain are clearly over their peak now. We're probably over ours. Second waves are a theory and not a fact. There's no second wave in China yet. America is getting back to work and the government will soon realise that if American companies keep working and British ones don't, there won't be much of an economy left to ever open up. There is of course bad news out there too.
By the way, we're you ever on a channel 4 show about prejudice?
If there is no second wave after a lockdown we have not been told the truth
The virus spread amongst 65 million people in the UK from a mere handful of infected
After a lockdown
63 million will still not have had it
More than a handful will still have it
Go compute !
Nice confirmation bias. How many people do you know in China by the way?
No confirmation bias
I've not heard or read that anywhere
Iv only given an either or
Either out of lockdown we have the same susceptibility as before or I have zero idea why we would not
China is only just out of full lock down do I understand they are still on partial ?
If my maths serves me right it takes a couple of months from a small reservoir unrestricted to spread into the unprotected
Thus dont expect data from China until
A. All restrictions lifted
B. A month 2 after
Again no confirmation bias if you can articulate why if only 1 million out of 65 plus have potential immunity
And restrictions are lifted
Why vulnerable are not still vulnerable
And the virus would not repeat what it has done
Please bear in mind I say after lifting restrictions
Keeping restrictions will indeed keep it manageable
So please illustrate IF the virus is not eradicated why if restrictions are lifted it will not do as currently demonstrated?
In your head it's either that they report a second wave to confirm your theory or they have a second wave but lie about it. There's no scenario where there just isn't a second wave. The answer to all your other questions is "because it's more complicated than that". For example, "Why vulnerable are not still vulnerable" - because they are dead or immune would be part of that answer. China is in partial lockdown depending on the province. Harbin has a small outbreak at the moment. But Harbin is nowhere near Hubei, which is not particularly close to Guangzhou where the oldest cases have been found.
Oh no you miss read me I'm certain not saying China is lieing
I'm saying either I'm mis informed about how the virus spreads or in time . I dont think China is in a position where a quick second wave is going to occur they are still following restrictions
Erm
Apparently we are on a lockdown because there are a lot of undead in infected vulnerables ????
Thus you make no sense
They will still exist as erm vulnerable???
So again out we pop
No social distancing no restrictions lots of sex
As long as a couple of people in the UK have it it will come back
Please, pretty please prove me wrong ??
However there is no world evidence as that situation has not yet occured
Depends what you believe about reinfecton rates
I’m sure reinfection is possible, as with other Coronaviruses. But humans evolved to deal with those and we will with this one. That evolution will take time though so we need to test test test in the meantime. We cannot continue to lockdown, it will damage us more than it helps us in the end. We need to buy time to develop millions of tests and then go from there. Test and isolate until this becomes a disease we live with.
On the planet there are billions in the UK 65 million
Testing everyone every couple of days may allow us some extra freedom "
I can live with that |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
"Graphs are starting to show a downturn and yet people are still calling for tighter lockdowns?
George Orwell must be turning in his grave.
The number of new cases per day isn't going down. That's what you nees to be looking at, not the death rate. The high number of new cases are potential deaths in 2-3 weeks time. As this lockdown is to protect the NHS and not stop the virus, then this means that the current lockdown isn't tight enough as new cases are still rising or if you like, not going down quick enough. You've only got to look at countries with a strict lockdown from day 1 like Cyprus to see that the proof is in the pudding.
The case numbers are meaningless since we don't test enough people. We have a 13% fatality rate compared to 3% in Germany, the only difference being they tested more people. Italy had a tighter lockdown than us and it didn't get them anywhere. Lockdown is just one tool in the box and not even a good one.
We know that the daily cases are higher than reported but the government are looking at the new cases as a measure of how well lock down is working. So if these reported new cases are still going up, then the lockdown isn't working as effitively as they hoped it would
I thought they would be looking at the death toll, those are the trends I've seen attention focussed on but I can't say I watch everything. The actual death rate of coronavirus is closer to 0.6% so they will just find more cases, the more they test.
I watch it closely as I need a plan of how long my business will be closed lol
They look at daily new cases as that is an indicator of how well the lock down is working. If the new cases go down, then people are staying in and not passing the virus on. They look at the new cases, as these are the potential ICU cases that they need to plan for. Remember that this lock down isn't to stop the virus, it's to stop the NHS getting to breaking point with too many critical cases. So the more new cases we have, the more chance we have of the NHS struggling. They know that those admitted to hospital are those who need additional support and those who lose their battle will do so within 2 weeks. So the new cases reported is a good forecast of how stretched our services will be in the future. So it's the new cases that we need to get down and this will have a knock on effect on the death rate.
Well the good news would be that Italy and Spain are clearly over their peak now. We're probably over ours. Second waves are a theory and not a fact. There's no second wave in China yet. America is getting back to work and the government will soon realise that if American companies keep working and British ones don't, there won't be much of an economy left to ever open up. There is of course bad news out there too.
By the way, we're you ever on a channel 4 show about prejudice?
If there is no second wave after a lockdown we have not been told the truth
The virus spread amongst 65 million people in the UK from a mere handful of infected
After a lockdown
63 million will still not have had it
More than a handful will still have it
Go compute !
Nice confirmation bias. How many people do you know in China by the way?
No confirmation bias
I've not heard or read that anywhere
Iv only given an either or
Either out of lockdown we have the same susceptibility as before or I have zero idea why we would not
China is only just out of full lock down do I understand they are still on partial ?
If my maths serves me right it takes a couple of months from a small reservoir unrestricted to spread into the unprotected
Thus dont expect data from China until
A. All restrictions lifted
B. A month 2 after
Again no confirmation bias if you can articulate why if only 1 million out of 65 plus have potential immunity
And restrictions are lifted
Why vulnerable are not still vulnerable
And the virus would not repeat what it has done
Please bear in mind I say after lifting restrictions
Keeping restrictions will indeed keep it manageable
So please illustrate IF the virus is not eradicated why if restrictions are lifted it will not do as currently demonstrated?
In your head it's either that they report a second wave to confirm your theory or they have a second wave but lie about it. There's no scenario where there just isn't a second wave. The answer to all your other questions is "because it's more complicated than that". For example, "Why vulnerable are not still vulnerable" - because they are dead or immune would be part of that answer. China is in partial lockdown depending on the province. Harbin has a small outbreak at the moment. But Harbin is nowhere near Hubei, which is not particularly close to Guangzhou where the oldest cases have been found.
Oh no you miss read me I'm certain not saying China is lieing
I'm saying either I'm mis informed about how the virus spreads or in time . I dont think China is in a position where a quick second wave is going to occur they are still following restrictions
Erm
Apparently we are on a lockdown because there are a lot of undead in infected vulnerables ????
Thus you make no sense
They will still exist as erm vulnerable???
So again out we pop
No social distancing no restrictions lots of sex
As long as a couple of people in the UK have it it will come back
Please, pretty please prove me wrong ??
However there is no world evidence as that situation has not yet occured
Depends what you believe about reinfecton rates
I’m sure reinfection is possible, as with other Coronaviruses. But humans evolved to deal with those and we will with this one. That evolution will take time though so we need to test test test in the meantime. We cannot continue to lockdown, it will damage us more than it helps us in the end. We need to buy time to develop millions of tests and then go from there. Test and isolate until this becomes a disease we live with.
On the planet there are billions in the UK 65 million
Testing everyone every couple of days may allow us some extra freedom
I can live with that "
So let me get this straight
You have just got the all clear at work ?
I assume that either means you then self restrict only coming close to others who have a certificate that hour?
No coffe no gym no shopping ?
|
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
"
They will still exist as erm vulnerable???
So again out we pop
No social distancing no restrictions lots of sex
As long as a couple of people in the UK have it it will come back
Please, pretty please prove me wrong ??
However there is no world evidence as that situation has not yet occured
Depends what you believe about reinfecton rates
Not really It may depend on what you believe is the correct infection figure
The world is full of billions
As of today its suggested only 2.5 million
The UK a reported 100 000 cases over 65 million population
Even if you gross these up by a factor of 10 we are only about 1 percent UK or world population
Thus the reinfection point is subdued some what if most of the world allegedly has not had it ? The potential for the re infection only exacerbates the case for further waves with social restrictions lifted
An very large chunk of the world are asymptomatic to it because of their genetics. Then we are adding some people who are immune because they've already had it. The dead don't die twice. These are all reasons the rate of infection slows.
I did gross up by 10
Ate you trying to suggest a larger factor ??
UK says
100 000
I suggest 1000 000 just over 1 percent
You're suggesting?
Oh and let's not forget most of our vulnerable have been locked up so still ready and waiting
"
There are cases where there were outbreaks at sea which is extremely difficult to contain. In all cases, more than half the people on board tested negative. Is that because they didn't get infected or couldn't get infected, we don't know yet. We don't know what impact the weather will have on coronavirus, many diseases are seasonal. It's also possible that the virus burns itself out. A virus is a living thing that mutates. However, the more deadly the mutation, the quicker the host dies and so the quicker the virus has to spread to exist. Once you have over a month of R1 then that could cull the worst strains of coronavirus. As I said before, it's complicated. |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
"For so long the government have cut funding to the NHS and other essential areas like Mental Health etc. Without being disrespectful to anyone but the millennial generation doesn’t have the ability to hack it like the older generation did during the war.
Now wether you agree or not a lot of Europe are lifting restrictions and I think that if they don’t go to extend this Lockdown again in May that will be the match to light the powder keg.
Not everywhere had to close. Restaurants could have stayed open if they could offer a Takeaway facility so places like Maccies could have if they wanted to stayed open and just did Drive Through. It does sound daft but small things like that mean a lot to people and it would given a sense of normality for people to cope
Not my food of choice but Look at the queues on McDonald's on their last day. And then an April Fool that they were opening again. Maybe it isn't economically viable for them to do just drive through? There's an Indian a few miles from me doing van deliveries with a very limited menu. I was told order by 3.00 for 8.30 delivery! There's now going to be a traffic lights scheme to come out of lockdown. Hopefully more of this will come back. I agree with you that it'll make a difference to the way things are.
That traffic light graphic came from a rag of a newspaper, wasn't confirmed by. Government at all "
Yes. It said they were discussing/considering it. There's got to be something similar to come out of lockdown. |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
"I said right at the start of this if lockdown goes on for very long extended period there would be civil unrest.
Oh if only people knew the real story about lockdown. May be different here than the mainland but 6 weeks won't be the end of it
What’s the real story?
Pm'ed you
Is it a secret you can't tell us all? I'd like to know too. "
No not a secret at all, but wasnt 100% sure of it was true so didn't want to post a Chinese whisper.
Lockdown was initially set for 8 to 12 weeks to help the nhs cope with the influx of infected. But was only announced in 3 week blocks to stop people panicking. |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
"I've said a few times that I wish this had happened over winter. People would have been far more compliant when it was freezing outside. "
Get what you're saying. Feel like stopping in bed in the winter anyway. Even though I'm carrying on working f/t. So not much different for me.
Remember there we lots of problems with floods this winter too. And to have this at the same time?! |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
"Hear me out!
So we're currently in lock down, timescale unknown, and in the main we're conforming to social distancing. A lot of anxiety because we're sociable animals, worried about food and roof over our heads.
We may have several rounds of lock down before we can relax, but I suspect the rise in unemployment and not being able to plan ahead will lead to civil unrest.
We already see key workers being attacked, and my fear is riots.
You ask where does the rain come in? Very simple, you don't get riots in the rain.
"
Been saying this since the lockdown started also with the way the police are acting and lobbying to keep these powers after lockdown is lifted you may see more then civil unrest. The riots of 2011 would look like childs play compared to what may happen now If people actually see our civil liabilities are at stake and the mass unemployment time bomb explodes. I really hope there a smart diplomatic way of dealing we this but with this Government in charge nothing surprises me anymore. |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
"Hear me out!
So we're currently in lock down, timescale unknown, and in the main we're conforming to social distancing. A lot of anxiety because we're sociable animals, worried about food and roof over our heads.
We may have several rounds of lock down before we can relax, but I suspect the rise in unemployment and not being able to plan ahead will lead to civil unrest.
We already see key workers being attacked, and my fear is riots.
You ask where does the rain come in? Very simple, you don't get riots in the rain.
Been saying this since the lockdown started also with the way the police are acting and lobbying to keep these powers after lockdown is lifted you may see more then civil unrest. The riots of 2011 would look like childs play compared to what may happen now If people actually see our civil liabilities are at stake and the mass unemployment time bomb explodes. I really hope there a smart diplomatic way of dealing we this but with this Government in charge nothing surprises me anymore."
Lots of videos circulating book of face where a policeman threatened to "make something up" to arrest someone and another PCSO telling a guy that his kids can't play in his front garden. It's boiling under the surface. |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
"I thought about this
And when we had rain the other day I decided nope.. definitely need nice weather or it will feel a whole lot worse "
True if you have a back garden or like us who are right near a park so you can do your daily exercise. Also our park has a skate park in it so while it been empty been getting back into skateboarding which at 32 years old I thought I was a bit to old for it. |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
|
By *eah BabyCouple
over a year ago
Cheshire, Windermere ,Cumbria |
I’d go stir crazy if the wasn’t good. Lucky enough to have a garden for sunbathing and a few good walks straight from the house, not into tv that much so wouldn’t be happy if cooped up inside day and night |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
"Lockdown is the most blunt instrument there is to deal with a pandemic.
Due to a lack of preparation, however, it is all we have at present.
It only buys us time, it does not cure or solve a thing. It just kicks the can down the road.
During the bought time, any decent government would have our economy fully focused on producing tests. Millions of them. Every factory dedicated to it.
Not sure that is happening, but it should be.
Once we have sufficient tests, we ease the lockdown. We then test everyone. Every day. Those testing positive go home and isolate. Those who do not carry on with their normal lives.
When/if a vaccine turns up, we move towards that as well as testing.
That’s the way out.
This..
Were being asked to swallow the jingoistic language about being at war with all the elements one might associate with that..
But the reality is something far different.. "
. I note you mentioned the word war. In
the 2nd world war there was a estimated 80 million people killed.
Eventually and hopefully soon a vaccine will be found for covid19
Hopefully it won't have the casualty count.
Medical science will intervene its spread
Wars will kill forever |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
|
By *ucky24Man
over a year ago
Glasgow |
"I said right at the start of this if lockdown goes on for very long extended period there would be civil unrest.
Oh if only people knew the real story about lockdown. May be different here than the mainland but 6 weeks won't be the end of it
What’s the real story?
Pm'ed you
Is it a secret you can't tell us all? I'd like to know too.
No not a secret at all, but wasnt 100% sure of it was true so didn't want to post a Chinese whisper.
Lockdown was initially set for 8 to 12 weeks to help the nhs cope with the influx of infected. But was only announced in 3 week blocks to stop people panicking. "
It was written into Law by Parliament that it was to be reviewed every 3 weeks when they passed the Coronavirus Emergency Bill. That's the reason. It is to safe Civil liberties and the rule of Parliament and not have a dictatorship. |
Reply privately, Reply in forum +quote
or View forums list | |
» Add a new message to this topic
