FabSwingers.com > Forums > Virus > is there a limit to how long we can lock down for?
is there a limit to how long we can lock down for?
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By *etsome OP Man
over a year ago
birmingham |
i think current estimates say we are currently at one million extra unemployed? Should this be allowed to rise to 4 or 5 million? Would locking down for twelve months be worth it if it protects the NHS? |
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By *etsome OP Man
over a year ago
birmingham |
"There is no way people will put up with lockdown for 12 months! Plus how many more businesses would be destroyed?  "
most people think the economy will bounce back - i think they are in for a surprise |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"i think current estimates say we are currently at one million extra unemployed? Should this be allowed to rise to 4 or 5 million? Would locking down for twelve months be worth it if it protects the NHS?"
Whats the alternative?
Thousands and thousands of sick people, and no one to look after them?
People are still having heart attacks and strokes etc
Do we all go back to normal, and just hope we dont need a hospital bed? |
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By *etsome OP Man
over a year ago
birmingham |
"i think current estimates say we are currently at one million extra unemployed? Should this be allowed to rise to 4 or 5 million? Would locking down for twelve months be worth it if it protects the NHS?
Whats the alternative?
Thousands and thousands of sick people, and no one to look after them?
People are still having heart attacks and strokes etc
Do we all go back to normal, and just hope we dont need a hospital bed?"
we have to accept than many people are going to die just as we accepted that 28.5 thousand died in the 2014-1015 flu season. We cannot let the deaths of 0.5% of the population cause us to annihilate our economy
We knew that many young men would lose their lives in ww2 - that doesn't mean it was the wrong decison to go to war |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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If the economy goes to far down hill due to the lockdown then there won't be any money for the NHS. So if you're sick hard luck, only people with money will have a hospital bed. |
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By *ty31Man
over a year ago
NW London |
"i think current estimates say we are currently at one million extra unemployed? Should this be allowed to rise to 4 or 5 million? Would locking down for twelve months be worth it if it protects the NHS?
Whats the alternative?
Thousands and thousands of sick people, and no one to look after them?
People are still having heart attacks and strokes etc
Do we all go back to normal, and just hope we dont need a hospital bed?"
I think the idea behind lockdown is to relieve the pressure on the NHS then have a gradual reopening of businesses and amenities coupled with an easing of travel and assembly restrictions.
Lockdown isn't a viable strategy beyond the short term (in my opinion). I do think anything beyond early June would start to cause social unrest.
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By *hickennchipsWoman
over a year ago
up above the streets and houses |
"i think current estimates say we are currently at one million extra unemployed? Should this be allowed to rise to 4 or 5 million? Would locking down for twelve months be worth it if it protects the NHS?
Whats the alternative?
Thousands and thousands of sick people, and no one to look after them?
People are still having heart attacks and strokes etc
Do we all go back to normal, and just hope we dont need a hospital bed?"
Basically, yes  |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"i think current estimates say we are currently at one million extra unemployed? Should this be allowed to rise to 4 or 5 million? Would locking down for twelve months be worth it if it protects the NHS?
Whats the alternative?
Thousands and thousands of sick people, and no one to look after them?
People are still having heart attacks and strokes etc
Do we all go back to normal, and just hope we dont need a hospital bed?
I think the idea behind lockdown is to relieve the pressure on the NHS then have a gradual reopening of businesses and amenities coupled with an easing of travel and assembly restrictions.
Lockdown isn't a viable strategy beyond the short term (in my opinion). I do think anything beyond early June would start to cause social unrest.
"
I agree
Whatever decisions are made, we are in deep doo doo.
I'm surprised there hasnt been civil unrest already tbh
We best hope they find a vaccine soon |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"i think current estimates say we are currently at one million extra unemployed? Should this be allowed to rise to 4 or 5 million? Would locking down for twelve months be worth it if it protects the NHS?"
No its been long enough already |
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"i think current estimates say we are currently at one million extra unemployed? Should this be allowed to rise to 4 or 5 million? Would locking down for twelve months be worth it if it protects the NHS?"
12 months would just show that the government is incompetent on a scale we don't have words for. There are countries that didn't need lockdown, countries that achieved partial lockdown without a health crisis. 12 month is not necessary or possible. This is not some mystery with no solutions. I'm also willing to bet that the 2020 total death toll will be less than 2018, which itself would have been a stellar year in the 1990s, which themselves were a big improvement on the 1980s. |
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By *itty9899Man
over a year ago
Craggy Island |
"i think current estimates say we are currently at one million extra unemployed? Should this be allowed to rise to 4 or 5 million? Would locking down for twelve months be worth it if it protects the NHS?
No its been long enough already"
It won't last 12 months but things won't get back to "normal" till at least September/October |
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By *ty31Man
over a year ago
NW London |
"i think current estimates say we are currently at one million extra unemployed? Should this be allowed to rise to 4 or 5 million? Would locking down for twelve months be worth it if it protects the NHS?
Whats the alternative?
Thousands and thousands of sick people, and no one to look after them?
People are still having heart attacks and strokes etc
Do we all go back to normal, and just hope we dont need a hospital bed?
I think the idea behind lockdown is to relieve the pressure on the NHS then have a gradual reopening of businesses and amenities coupled with an easing of travel and assembly restrictions.
Lockdown isn't a viable strategy beyond the short term (in my opinion). I do think anything beyond early June would start to cause social unrest.
I agree
Whatever decisions are made, we are in deep doo doo.
I'm surprised there hasnt been civil unrest already tbh
We best hope they find a vaccine soon"
To be fair, Brits are quite compliant with law and social order. The majority are respecting the current restrictions very well.
It's interesting to see that in countries like Spain and Italy, who went into lockdown a few weeks ahead of us, a noticeable backlash is building up against lockdown already. |
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"i think current estimates say we are currently at one million extra unemployed? Should this be allowed to rise to 4 or 5 million? Would locking down for twelve months be worth it if it protects the NHS?"
"Protecting the NHS" is not done to make sure it will be there when this is over. It's to make sure the NHS is able to help as many of us as possible while this virus is ongoing!
The financial burden of this crisis is going to be horrendous; hopefully the loss of life in the meantime won't make it all that much worse.
We could, of course, follow Trump's lead of encouraging the masses to protest against doing our best to stay healthy (and alive).
Would you rather have 4 or 5 million unemployed, or that many dead? |
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By *mmabluTV/TS
over a year ago
upton wirral |
They tell us to say at home help the NHS,well I stay at home because I do not want this virus,I guess that is true of most of us.
This is a clue I feel to how long the lock down.Once they feel it is contained enough so that the health system can cope they will start to get things back to normal mazinly because of the economy.
More people die of sepsis than this virus in a year that number is 52,000 by the way.
As soon as we can cope things will be normalised with virus still here I reckon |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"Its not just about protecting the NHS, its about protecting all of us."
Hahah do you still beleive in father Christmas too..
They don't give a fuck if you or me ..get it or not die or not.
It's all a show to look like something is being done.
The elite. .not the politicians. . The real people calling the shots and setting the agendas
.only aim is to stop the many taking power from the few.
Create a problem .. offer a solution .. is the easiest way to keep people in line ..
Haha it's to protect us .. I'm still laughing
.... still it's nice to think so innocently |
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By *mmabluTV/TS
over a year ago
upton wirral |
"Its not just about protecting the NHS, its about protecting all of us.
Hahah do you still beleive in father Christmas too..
They don't give a fuck if you or me ..get it or not die or not.
It's all a show to look like something is being done.
The elite. .not the politicians. . The real people calling the shots and setting the agendas
.only aim is to stop the many taking power from the few.
Create a problem .. offer a solution .. is the easiest way to keep people in line ..
Haha it's to protect us .. I'm still laughing
.... still it's nice to think so innocently "
You are so cynical get real |
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"Its not just about protecting the NHS, its about protecting all of us.
Hahah do you still beleive in father Christmas too..
They don't give a fuck if you or me ..get it or not die or not.
It's all a show to look like something is being done.
The elite. .not the politicians. . The real people calling the shots and setting the agendas
.only aim is to stop the many taking power from the few.
Create a problem .. offer a solution .. is the easiest way to keep people in line ..
Haha it's to protect us .. I'm still laughing
.... still it's nice to think so innocently "
You seem to forget the goverment didn't want to shut down the country, it was pressured into doing so. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
"They tell us to say at home help the NHS,well I stay at home because I do not want this virus,I guess that is true of most of us.
This is a clue I feel to how long the lock down.Once they feel it is contained enough so that the health system can cope they will start to get things back to normal mazinly because of the economy.
More people die of sepsis than this virus in a year that number is 52,000 by the way.
As soon as we can cope things will be normalised with virus still here I reckon"
Are you sure on that? as we are well over 20000 in total deaths in less then 2 months.. |
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"Its not just about protecting the NHS, its about protecting all of us.
Hahah do you still beleive in father Christmas too..
They don't give a fuck if you or me ..get it or not die or not.
It's all a show to look like something is being done.
The elite. .not the politicians. . The real people calling the shots and setting the agendas
.only aim is to stop the many taking power from the few.
Create a problem .. offer a solution .. is the easiest way to keep people in line ..
Haha it's to protect us .. I'm still laughing
.... still it's nice to think so innocently You are so cynical get real"
There's truth in what he's saying. This is theft on a mass scale. Millions of people are having their businesses and or savings swallowed up by banks (in particular) but also commercial landlords and the government. The government support is a joke. It's not lizard people orchestrating it though, just incompetence on an incredible scale. Politicians enabling it because they'd rather look busy than admit their mistakes and be honest with the public. |
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"Its not just about protecting the NHS, its about protecting all of us.
Hahah do you still beleive in father Christmas too..
They don't give a fuck if you or me ..get it or not die or not.
It's all a show to look like something is being done.
The elite. .not the politicians. . The real people calling the shots and setting the agendas
.only aim is to stop the many taking power from the few.
Create a problem .. offer a solution .. is the easiest way to keep people in line ..
Haha it's to protect us .. I'm still laughing
.... still it's nice to think so innocently
You seem to forget the goverment didn't want to shut down the country, it was pressured into doing so."
Honest question, pressured by who? That unpublished, non-core reviewed, shitty paper by imperial university that is absolute amateur level analysis? |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
"Its not just about protecting the NHS, its about protecting all of us.
Hahah do you still beleive in father Christmas too..
They don't give a fuck if you or me ..get it or not die or not.
It's all a show to look like something is being done.
The elite. .not the politicians. . The real people calling the shots and setting the agendas
.only aim is to stop the many taking power from the few.
Create a problem .. offer a solution .. is the easiest way to keep people in line ..
Haha it's to protect us .. I'm still laughing
.... still it's nice to think so innocently You are so cynical get real"
The whole world is a pyramid ..
Do you really think people above you give a shit about you?
Do you really give a shit about people below you?
We are tolerated. . As we tolerate people below us. .
And we can virtue signal ..about how much we care and want to help ..
But come on .. you would not pull your girly panties to one side, to piss on some one on fire ..if it meant you would be worse off some how |
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By *mmabluTV/TS
over a year ago
upton wirral |
"They tell us to say at home help the NHS,well I stay at home because I do not want this virus,I guess that is true of most of us.
This is a clue I feel to how long the lock down.Once they feel it is contained enough so that the health system can cope they will start to get things back to normal mazinly because of the economy.
More people die of sepsis than this virus in a year that number is 52,000 by the way.
As soon as we can cope things will be normalised with virus still here I reckon
Are you sure on that? as we are well over 20000 in total deaths in less then 2 months.. "
yes the 52,000 sepsis deaths is true has efected my family in the passed.As for my assumption well maybe right maybe wrong we will see,just my thoughts |
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There are more and more people out every day and that will continue to rise especially as the warmer weather comes. Any further extension to the lockdown without some restrictions will be ignored by more and more people.
Pressure on the NHS which was the.main reason for lockdown is on the whole easing and will continue to as the next couple of weeks go by. I'm confident we will see change after this 3 weeks |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
"i think current estimates say we are currently at one million extra unemployed? Should this be allowed to rise to 4 or 5 million? Would locking down for twelve months be worth it if it protects the NHS?
Whats the alternative?
Thousands and thousands of sick people, and no one to look after them?
People are still having heart attacks and strokes etc
Do we all go back to normal, and just hope we dont need a hospital bed?
I think the idea behind lockdown is to relieve the pressure on the NHS then have a gradual reopening of businesses and amenities coupled with an easing of travel and assembly restrictions.
Lockdown isn't a viable strategy beyond the short term (in my opinion). I do think anything beyond early June would start to cause social unrest.
I agree
Whatever decisions are made, we are in deep doo doo.
I'm surprised there hasnt been civil unrest already tbh
We best hope they find a vaccine soon
To be fair, Brits are quite compliant with law and social order. The majority are respecting the current restrictions very well.
It's interesting to see that in countries like Spain and Italy, who went into lockdown a few weeks ahead of us, a noticeable backlash is building up against lockdown already."
They had a real lockdown, with people actually complying. In UK people are not (just look at the mobility data released by Google). That is why their numbers are going down and ours are not. |
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"i think current estimates say we are currently at one million extra unemployed? Should this be allowed to rise to 4 or 5 million? Would locking down for twelve months be worth it if it protects the NHS?
Whats the alternative?
Thousands and thousands of sick people, and no one to look after them?
People are still having heart attacks and strokes etc
Do we all go back to normal, and just hope we dont need a hospital bed?
I think the idea behind lockdown is to relieve the pressure on the NHS then have a gradual reopening of businesses and amenities coupled with an easing of travel and assembly restrictions.
Lockdown isn't a viable strategy beyond the short term (in my opinion). I do think anything beyond early June would start to cause social unrest.
I agree
Whatever decisions are made, we are in deep doo doo.
I'm surprised there hasnt been civil unrest already tbh
We best hope they find a vaccine soon
To be fair, Brits are quite compliant with law and social order. The majority are respecting the current restrictions very well.
It's interesting to see that in countries like Spain and Italy, who went into lockdown a few weeks ahead of us, a noticeable backlash is building up against lockdown already.
They had a real lockdown, with people actually complying. In UK people are not (just look at the mobility data released by Google). That is why their numbers are going down and ours are not."
Could you post a link please. I tried to google it and didn't find any evidence we are worse than other countries. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
"i think current estimates say we are currently at one million extra unemployed? Should this be allowed to rise to 4 or 5 million? Would locking down for twelve months be worth it if it protects the NHS?
Whats the alternative?
Thousands and thousands of sick people, and no one to look after them?
People are still having heart attacks and strokes etc
Do we all go back to normal, and just hope we dont need a hospital bed?
I think the idea behind lockdown is to relieve the pressure on the NHS then have a gradual reopening of businesses and amenities coupled with an easing of travel and assembly restrictions.
Lockdown isn't a viable strategy beyond the short term (in my opinion). I do think anything beyond early June would start to cause social unrest.
I agree
Whatever decisions are made, we are in deep doo doo.
I'm surprised there hasnt been civil unrest already tbh
We best hope they find a vaccine soon
To be fair, Brits are quite compliant with law and social order. The majority are respecting the current restrictions very well.
It's interesting to see that in countries like Spain and Italy, who went into lockdown a few weeks ahead of us, a noticeable backlash is building up against lockdown already.
They had a real lockdown, with people actually complying. In UK people are not (just look at the mobility data released by Google). That is why their numbers are going down and ours are not.
Could you post a link please. I tried to google it and didn't find any evidence we are worse than other countries. "
https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
I've only looked at UK, Spain, and Italy. |
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"i think current estimates say we are currently at one million extra unemployed? Should this be allowed to rise to 4 or 5 million? Would locking down for twelve months be worth it if it protects the NHS?
Whats the alternative?
Thousands and thousands of sick people, and no one to look after them?
People are still having heart attacks and strokes etc
Do we all go back to normal, and just hope we dont need a hospital bed?
I think the idea behind lockdown is to relieve the pressure on the NHS then have a gradual reopening of businesses and amenities coupled with an easing of travel and assembly restrictions.
Lockdown isn't a viable strategy beyond the short term (in my opinion). I do think anything beyond early June would start to cause social unrest.
I agree
Whatever decisions are made, we are in deep doo doo.
I'm surprised there hasnt been civil unrest already tbh
We best hope they find a vaccine soon
To be fair, Brits are quite compliant with law and social order. The majority are respecting the current restrictions very well.
It's interesting to see that in countries like Spain and Italy, who went into lockdown a few weeks ahead of us, a noticeable backlash is building up against lockdown already.
They had a real lockdown, with people actually complying. In UK people are not (just look at the mobility data released by Google). That is why their numbers are going down and ours are not.
Could you post a link please. I tried to google it and didn't find any evidence we are worse than other countries.
https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
I've only looked at UK, Spain, and Italy."
Thanks, that's interesting. Which statistics did you consider particularly damning for the UK? I checked UK, Italy and Spain and nothing leapt out at me to be honest |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"i think current estimates say we are currently at one million extra unemployed? Should this be allowed to rise to 4 or 5 million? Would locking down for twelve months be worth it if it protects the NHS?
Whats the alternative?
Thousands and thousands of sick people, and no one to look after them?
People are still having heart attacks and strokes etc
Do we all go back to normal, and just hope we dont need a hospital bed?
I think the idea behind lockdown is to relieve the pressure on the NHS then have a gradual reopening of businesses and amenities coupled with an easing of travel and assembly restrictions.
Lockdown isn't a viable strategy beyond the short term (in my opinion). I do think anything beyond early June would start to cause social unrest.
I agree
Whatever decisions are made, we are in deep doo doo.
I'm surprised there hasnt been civil unrest already tbh
We best hope they find a vaccine soon
To be fair, Brits are quite compliant with law and social order. The majority are respecting the current restrictions very well.
It's interesting to see that in countries like Spain and Italy, who went into lockdown a few weeks ahead of us, a noticeable backlash is building up against lockdown already.
They had a real lockdown, with people actually complying. In UK people are not (just look at the mobility data released by Google). That is why their numbers are going down and ours are not.
Could you post a link please. I tried to google it and didn't find any evidence we are worse than other countries.
https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
I've only looked at UK, Spain, and Italy.
Thanks, that's interesting. Which statistics did you consider particularly damning for the UK? I checked UK, Italy and Spain and nothing leapt out at me to be honest "
Well in all of those statistics UK is "underperforming" compared to the other two countries. Even if we don't know the uncertainty of those figures and we might be tempted to disregard differences of 5-10
points as "not significant", we need to remember that these statistics are derived from every phone with Google Maps installed, which in practice means almost every phone on this planet, so this data is probably very accurate.
The figure which is much much worse is that related to "parks". This is a clear indicator of how much less strict is our lockdown. Is it enough? I don't think so. I hope to be proven wrong in the next couple of weeks, when we should start to see all hospital admissions of people who caught the virus during the Easter weekend. |
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Well in all of those statistics UK is "underperforming" compared to the other two countries. Even if we don't know the uncertainty of those figures and we might be tempted to disregard differences of 5-10
points as "not significant", we need to remember that these statistics are derived from every phone with Google Maps installed, which in practice means almost every phone on this planet, so this data is probably very accurate.
The figure which is much much worse is that related to "parks". This is a clear indicator of how much less strict is our lockdown. Is it enough? I don't think so. I hope to be proven wrong in the next couple of weeks, when we should start to see all hospital admissions of people who caught the virus during the Easter weekend."
I don't really understand your point. Parks aren't part of our lockdown so that's not any evidence of people breaking our social distancing rules. Italy declared a stricter lockdown but it didn't do them any favours in any relative sense. The death toll of each country in no way correlates with how strict the lockdown is. Their numbers are going down because of where they are on the trajectory, not because they are doing anything better than us. |
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"i think current estimates say we are currently at one million extra unemployed? Should this be allowed to rise to 4 or 5 million? Would locking down for twelve months be worth it if it protects the NHS?
Whats the alternative?
Thousands and thousands of sick people, and no one to look after them?
People are still having heart attacks and strokes etc
Do we all go back to normal, and just hope we dont need a hospital bed?
I think the idea behind lockdown is to relieve the pressure on the NHS then have a gradual reopening of businesses and amenities coupled with an easing of travel and assembly restrictions.
Lockdown isn't a viable strategy beyond the short term (in my opinion). I do think anything beyond early June would start to cause social unrest.
I agree
Whatever decisions are made, we are in deep doo doo.
I'm surprised there hasnt been civil unrest already tbh
We best hope they find a vaccine soon
To be fair, Brits are quite compliant with law and social order. The majority are respecting the current restrictions very well.
It's interesting to see that in countries like Spain and Italy, who went into lockdown a few weeks ahead of us, a noticeable backlash is building up against lockdown already.
They had a real lockdown, with people actually complying. In UK people are not (just look at the mobility data released by Google). That is why their numbers are going down and ours are not.
Could you post a link please. I tried to google it and didn't find any evidence we are worse than other countries.
https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
I've only looked at UK, Spain, and Italy.
Thanks, that's interesting. Which statistics did you consider particularly damning for the UK? I checked UK, Italy and Spain and nothing leapt out at me to be honest
Well in all of those statistics UK is "underperforming" compared to the other two countries. Even if we don't know the uncertainty of those figures and we might be tempted to disregard differences of 5-10
points as "not significant", we need to remember that these statistics are derived from every phone with Google Maps installed, which in practice means almost every phone on this planet, so this data is probably very accurate.
The figure which is much much worse is that related to "parks". This is a clear indicator of how much less strict is our lockdown. Is it enough? I don't think so. I hope to be proven wrong in the next couple of weeks, when we should start to see all hospital admissions of people who caught the virus during the Easter weekend."
"Facts are stubborn things, but statistics are pliable"
Mark Twain |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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So the whole point of the lockdown and social distancing is to protect lives and the NHS.
Comparing deaths of other causes to that of COVID is irrelevant. Those numbers will not change significantly so they will still need hospitalisation. Hospital admissions are down, less accidents and such forth but the sick will still get sick. They will need looking after too.
So, you know when people went and panic bought toilet roll and pasta?? Well that’s what would happen to hospital beds, critical care equipment and hospital staff if restrictions were not imposed. Hence the Nightingale hospitals, you know more beds for people whether it’s COVID or not.
Lockdown needs to continue until the number of cases stabilises and begins to fall, the death rate will lag behind that. We need the RO factor to be way below 0.5 before easing restrictions.
Lockdown will continue until the scientific evidence shows this. We will always get people footing the rules and that’s the case but you can’t worry about them it’s all about what you do.
Call me naive but I think the government is doing the best it can because as far as I can remember they weren’t around in the 1918 pandemic or the bubonic plague.
Lockdown will continue until the science geeks say so.
And I’m waiting with baited breath to see the Easter weekend impact on the figures in the next few days. And if it goes up those are the people to thank for a further extension...
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"
Well in all of those statistics UK is "underperforming" compared to the other two countries. Even if we don't know the uncertainty of those figures and we might be tempted to disregard differences of 5-10
points as "not significant", we need to remember that these statistics are derived from every phone with Google Maps installed, which in practice means almost every phone on this planet, so this data is probably very accurate.
The figure which is much much worse is that related to "parks". This is a clear indicator of how much less strict is our lockdown. Is it enough? I don't think so. I hope to be proven wrong in the next couple of weeks, when we should start to see all hospital admissions of people who caught the virus during the Easter weekend.
I don't really understand your point. Parks aren't part of our lockdown so that's not any evidence of people breaking our social distancing rules. Italy declared a stricter lockdown but it didn't do them any favours in any relative sense. The death toll of each country in no way correlates with how strict the lockdown is. Their numbers are going down because of where they are on the trajectory, not because they are doing anything better than us. "
I was arguing that the lockdown we have here is a joke compared to what other countries have. And "parks" is not the only thing that has worst figures. Our rules are simply softer.
Anyway the trajectory uniquely depends on the R0/Re factor which entirely depends on how/if social distancing is working (herd immunity is still months away).
Just because other countries that were ahead of us had their peak doesn't necessarily mean that we will have it too in the next days, numbers are not going down yet and they could start going up again. We just don't know, but prospects are not good, with nurses that might end up re-using gowns and the Easter effect.... |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"Fools.. Wake Up Peoples
As soon as you use the words
"wake up people"
Or
"Open your eyes"
Your credentials go straight out the window.
That's what the lizard people want you to think "
No we don't, we already control you. |
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Well in all of those statistics UK is "underperforming" compared to the other two countries. Even if we don't know the uncertainty of those figures and we might be tempted to disregard differences of 5-10
points as "not significant", we need to remember that these statistics are derived from every phone with Google Maps installed, which in practice means almost every phone on this planet, so this data is probably very accurate.
The figure which is much much worse is that related to "parks". This is a clear indicator of how much less strict is our lockdown. Is it enough? I don't think so. I hope to be proven wrong in the next couple of weeks, when we should start to see all hospital admissions of people who caught the virus during the Easter weekend.
I don't really understand your point. Parks aren't part of our lockdown so that's not any evidence of people breaking our social distancing rules. Italy declared a stricter lockdown but it didn't do them any favours in any relative sense. The death toll of each country in no way correlates with how strict the lockdown is. Their numbers are going down because of where they are on the trajectory, not because they are doing anything better than us.
I was arguing that the lockdown we have here is a joke compared to what other countries have. And "parks" is not the only thing that has worst figures. Our rules are simply softer.
Anyway the trajectory uniquely depends on the R0/Re factor which entirely depends on how/if social distancing is working (herd immunity is still months away).
Just because other countries that were ahead of us had their peak doesn't necessarily mean that we will have it too in the next days, numbers are not going down yet and they could start going up again. We just don't know, but prospects are not good, with nurses that might end up re-using gowns and the Easter effect...."
Our rules are way more stringent than Sweden and yet they have less deaths per 1m. Our problem is that we are relying on 1 possible tool and it's a shitty one. It's not that social distancing isn't stringent enough. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"
Well in all of those statistics UK is "underperforming" compared to the other two countries. Even if we don't know the uncertainty of those figures and we might be tempted to disregard differences of 5-10
points as "not significant", we need to remember that these statistics are derived from every phone with Google Maps installed, which in practice means almost every phone on this planet, so this data is probably very accurate.
The figure which is much much worse is that related to "parks". This is a clear indicator of how much less strict is our lockdown. Is it enough? I don't think so. I hope to be proven wrong in the next couple of weeks, when we should start to see all hospital admissions of people who caught the virus during the Easter weekend.
I don't really understand your point. Parks aren't part of our lockdown so that's not any evidence of people breaking our social distancing rules. Italy declared a stricter lockdown but it didn't do them any favours in any relative sense. The death toll of each country in no way correlates with how strict the lockdown is. Their numbers are going down because of where they are on the trajectory, not because they are doing anything better than us.
I was arguing that the lockdown we have here is a joke compared to what other countries have. And "parks" is not the only thing that has worst figures. Our rules are simply softer.
Anyway the trajectory uniquely depends on the R0/Re factor which entirely depends on how/if social distancing is working (herd immunity is still months away).
Just because other countries that were ahead of us had their peak doesn't necessarily mean that we will have it too in the next days, numbers are not going down yet and they could start going up again. We just don't know, but prospects are not good, with nurses that might end up re-using gowns and the Easter effect....
Our rules are way more stringent than Sweden and yet they have less deaths per 1m. Our problem is that we are relying on 1 possible tool and it's a shitty one. It's not that social distancing isn't stringent enough. "
For what I know about Swedish people and by their population density I could say that their normal social activity is what we would call social distancing.
They are not doing much more tests than UK (even compared to population).
I don't think that results in Scandinavian countries can be easily compared with places with a very different (multi)culture. |
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That might be true but there's just no evidence that harsher lockdowns generate better results and there's evidence to the contrary. There are about 6-8 possible measures and I think relying on one is foolish. |
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"i think current estimates say we are currently at one million extra unemployed? Should this be allowed to rise to 4 or 5 million? Would locking down for twelve months be worth it if it protects the NHS?
Whats the alternative?
Thousands and thousands of sick people, and no one to look after them?
People are still having heart attacks and strokes etc
Do we all go back to normal, and just hope we dont need a hospital bed?
we have to accept than many people are going to die just as we accepted that 28.5 thousand died in the 2014-1015 flu season. We cannot let the deaths of 0.5% of the population cause us to annihilate our economy
We knew that many young men would lose their lives in ww2 - that doesn't mean it was the wrong decison to go to war"
Preserving life comes first as the priority. Lockdown for infinity isn't the only solution to preserve life. |
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By (user no longer on site)
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"That might be true but there's just no evidence that harsher lockdowns generate better results and there's evidence to the contrary. There are about 6-8 possible measures and I think relying on one is foolish."
UK did many things wrong, I agree.  |
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By (user no longer on site)
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"i think current estimates say we are currently at one million extra unemployed? Should this be allowed to rise to 4 or 5 million? Would locking down for twelve months be worth it if it protects the NHS?
Whats the alternative?
Thousands and thousands of sick people, and no one to look after them?
Apple phones do not come with google maps so you are nowhere close to every phone on the planet FYI
People are still having heart attacks and strokes etc
Do we all go back to normal, and just hope we dont need a hospital bed?
I think the idea behind lockdown is to relieve the pressure on the NHS then have a gradual reopening of businesses and amenities coupled with an easing of travel and assembly restrictions.
Lockdown isn't a viable strategy beyond the short term (in my opinion). I do think anything beyond early June would start to cause social unrest.
I agree
Whatever decisions are made, we are in deep doo doo.
I'm surprised there hasnt been civil unrest already tbh
We best hope they find a vaccine soon
To be fair, Brits are quite compliant with law and social order. The majority are respecting the current restrictions very well.
It's interesting to see that in countries like Spain and Italy, who went into lockdown a few weeks ahead of us, a noticeable backlash is building up against lockdown already.
They had a real lockdown, with people actually complying. In UK people are not (just look at the mobility data released by Google). That is why their numbers are going down and ours are not.
Could you post a link please. I tried to google it and didn't find any evidence we are worse than other countries.
https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
I've only looked at UK, Spain, and Italy.
Thanks, that's interesting. Which statistics did you consider particularly damning for the UK? I checked UK, Italy and Spain and nothing leapt out at me to be honest
Well in all of those statistics UK is "underperforming" compared to the other two countries. Even if we don't know the uncertainty of those figures and we might be tempted to disregard differences of 5-10
points as "not significant", we need to remember that these statistics are derived from every phone with Google Maps installed, which in practice means almost every phone on this planet, so this data is probably very accurate.
The figure which is much much worse is that related to "parks". This is a clear indicator of how much less strict is our lockdown. Is it enough? I don't think so. I hope to be proven wrong in the next couple of weeks, when we should start to see all hospital admissions of people who caught the virus during the Easter weekend."
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