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20,000 still realistic??
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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago
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A few weeks back we were told by tge 'experts' that 20,000 covid related deaths would be a "good" outcome.
They are still, this morning, saying they can keep to that.
But as we rapidly approach 10,000 and given that distribution curves tend to have a long tail, falling more gradually than they rise....I for one very much doubt their figures.
Any mathematicians or statisticians (real or "fab" experts) care to comment? Hopefully constructively |
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By *eeBee67Man
over a year ago
Masked and Distant |
All to do with the infection rate "R". Needs to be below 1, each infected person infects less than 1 other person. Last I heard in UK it was 0.8
The lower we get that the quicker the drop off. We lower it by staying away from others.
Yes I think we will keep it below 20,000. |
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By *arkus1812Man
over a year ago
Lifes departure lounge NN9 Northamptonshire East not West MidlandsMidlands |
"A few weeks back we were told by tge 'experts' that 20,000 covid related deaths would be a "good" outcome.
They are still, this morning, saying they can keep to that.
But as we rapidly approach 10,000 and given that distribution curves tend to have a long tail, falling more gradually than they rise....I for one very much doubt their figures.
Any mathematicians or statisticians (real or "fab" experts) care to comment? Hopefully constructively "
Deaths as at 06.00 this morning 7978,
Average deaths over last 7 days is 722 per day,If this average continues we will reach 20.000 in 17 days. |
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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago
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"Op , is very dificult to have a real statistic of the real situation because the majority of the population have not been tested "
Can only go on the released stats...
And to tarkus....722 may be average but in the seven days daily has risen from (c) 450 to about 900 and still rising.... |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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I think it will be way over 20000 but the government had to put a positive spin on that guesstimate. My gut feeling is that it will be a good result if we come away with less than 50000 based on the fact we haven't spiked yet and when we do the death rate will flatten before starting to drop. |
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By *emptd2Man
over a year ago
Burgess Hill & Birmingham |
"A few weeks back we were told by tge 'experts' that 20,000 covid related deaths would be a "good" outcome.
But as we rapidly approach 10,000 "
You should do well to remember that they're only counting hospital deaths at the moment. I suspect the number is already higher than 10,000 |
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My guess (and while it may be informed by monitoring the numbers it is still a guess) is that we are around the peak now and that the long tail will bring us up to 25,000 to 30,000 deaths *as we are counting them now*. A bit more after we count up the out of hospital deaths (current estimates put those at around another 10% or so).
All this assuming there isn't another wave in the future. |
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My worry is this virus isn’t going to just disappear from a few weeks lockdown, especially as there are plenty of morons still going out and social gatherings. It will keep coming back in waves. The lockdown will get eased after the hospitals have quietened down, and then it will pick up again. I can’t see an end to this until we have a vaccine. It’s too far spread around the globe to just disappear. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"My guess (and while it may be informed by monitoring the numbers it is still a guess) is that we are around the peak now and that the long tail will bring us up to 25,000 to 30,000 deaths *as we are counting them now*. A bit more after we count up the out of hospital deaths (current estimates put those at around another 10% or so).
All this assuming there isn't another wave in the future."
The science expert yesterday evening stated the number of deaths is a 2-3 week delay behind hospital admissions, and therefore when we see a downturn of those, we'll see the peak number about 2 weeks after. He states we're not at the peak yet. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"My worry is this virus isn’t going to just disappear from a few weeks lockdown, especially as there are plenty of morons still going out and social gatherings. It will keep coming back in waves. The lockdown will get eased after the hospitals have quietened down, and then it will pick up again. I can’t see an end to this until we have a vaccine. It’s too far spread around the globe to just disappear. "
It is never going to disappear. Microbes such as these were here before us and will continue when we're gone.
Maybe it was a virus that ended the dinosaurs... Have yourselves a new conspiracy theory  |
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I hate targets as people jump all over them and as has already been discussed we will have no idea what is counted and what is not.
For me the outcome will be judged best on the annual increase in national death tolls per head of population compared to other comparable countries.
This takes away any recording bias. If our death rate goes up by say 5% and germany only goes up by 3% then our outcome is worse. |
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"My worry is this virus isn’t going to just disappear from a few weeks lockdown, especially as there are plenty of morons still going out and social gatherings. It will keep coming back in waves. The lockdown will get eased after the hospitals have quietened down, and then it will pick up again. I can’t see an end to this until we have a vaccine. It’s too far spread around the globe to just disappear.
It is never going to disappear. Microbes such as these were here before us and will continue when we're gone.
Maybe it was a virus that ended the dinosaurs... Have yourselves a new conspiracy theory "
Probably we will never know from or how this virus got into our lifes but if we look at some scientific predictions in the 80's they predicted if the ice from Antarctic and others places despaired , would be possible when that ice melted in the oceans could let free and bring to life virus unknow to humans , because they have been frozen for millions of years , and how dangerous that could be . Today when we look in this last years how fast ice have disappeared the climate changes and consequences , i wouldn't put out of study this theory that was predicted more than 40 years ago |
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"My guess (and while it may be informed by monitoring the numbers it is still a guess) is that we are around the peak now and that the long tail will bring us up to 25,000 to 30,000 deaths *as we are counting them now*. A bit more after we count up the out of hospital deaths (current estimates put those at around another 10% or so).
All this assuming there isn't another wave in the future.
The science expert yesterday evening stated the number of deaths is a 2-3 week delay behind hospital admissions, and therefore when we see a downturn of those, we'll see the peak number about 2 weeks after. He states we're not at the peak yet. "
I haven't been looking at hospital admissions (although I do realise the fact that deaths will lag behind them). I'm sad to hear they haven't peaked yet  . Looks like my guess will be on the low side then (also sadly). |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"My worry is this virus isn’t going to just disappear from a few weeks lockdown, especially as there are plenty of morons still going out and social gatherings. It will keep coming back in waves. The lockdown will get eased after the hospitals have quietened down, and then it will pick up again. I can’t see an end to this until we have a vaccine. It’s too far spread around the globe to just disappear.
It is never going to disappear. Microbes such as these were here before us and will continue when we're gone.
Maybe it was a virus that ended the dinosaurs... Have yourselves a new conspiracy theory
Probably we will never know from or how this virus got into our lifes but if we look at some scientific predictions in the 80's they predicted if the ice from Antarctic and others places despaired , would be possible when that ice melted in the oceans could let free and bring to life virus unknow to humans , because they have been frozen for millions of years , and how dangerous that could be . Today when we look in this last years how fast ice have disappeared the climate changes and consequences , i wouldn't put out of study this theory that was predicted more than 40 years ago "
Cryonics at its best  |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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That 20000 comes from the Imperial College reports, where Ferguson et al. esteemed that as the absolute minimum number of deaths that UK could achieve with a very effective lockdown, something like the Chinese one probably.
I think that it is clear that our lockdown is not that effective. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"That 20000 comes from the Imperial College reports, where Ferguson et al. esteemed that as the absolute minimum number of deaths that UK could achieve with a very effective lockdown, something like the Chinese one probably.
I think that it is clear that our lockdown is not that effective."
Which, I believe, is a strategy in itself. |
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By *litterbabeWoman
over a year ago
hiding from cock pics. |
"That 20000 comes from the Imperial College reports, where Ferguson et al. esteemed that as the absolute minimum number of deaths that UK could achieve with a very effective lockdown, something like the Chinese one probably.
I think that it is clear that our lockdown is not that effective.
Which, I believe, is a strategy in itself. "
Me too |
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"There is a leaked documentary today which is quite worrying..its on www.bylinetimes.com"
I looked at the article about why Germany is coping better than the UK. Interesting article but I don't understand how they are treating people with medication at an early stage to avoid their conditions getting worse. There is no treatment. |
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"There is a leaked documentary today which is quite worrying..its on www.bylinetimes.com
I looked at the article about why Germany is coping better than the UK. Interesting article but I don't understand how they are treating people with medication at an early stage to avoid their conditions getting worse. There is no treatment."
Another obscure website carrying another story that, if it were in any way true, would have been worldwide news.
Don't see that much at the moment... |
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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago
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"There is a leaked documentary today which is quite worrying..its on www.bylinetimes.com"
"Leaked" documentary or more deliberate fake news and conspiracy theories aimed at the ignorant and scared? |
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By *asIsaCouple
over a year ago
harrow |
"A few weeks back we were told by tge 'experts' that 20,000 covid related deaths would be a "good" outcome.
They are still, this morning, saying they can keep to that.
But as we rapidly approach 10,000 and given that distribution curves tend to have a long tail, falling more gradually than they rise....I for one very much doubt their figures.
Any mathematicians or statisticians (real or "fab" experts) care to comment? Hopefully constructively
Deaths as at 06.00 this morning 7978,
Average deaths over last 7 days is 722 per day,If this average continues we will reach 20.000 in 17 days."
Zero chance. By all accounts it will be nearer to 50000 |
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"A few weeks back we were told by tge 'experts' that 20,000 covid related deaths would be a "good" outcome.
They are still, this morning, saying they can keep to that.
But as we rapidly approach 10,000 and given that distribution curves tend to have a long tail, falling more gradually than they rise....I for one very much doubt their figures.
Any mathematicians or statisticians (real or "fab" experts) care to comment? Hopefully constructively "
In what time scale ?
|
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"A few weeks back we were told by tge 'experts' that 20,000 covid related deaths would be a "good" outcome.
They are still, this morning, saying they can keep to that.
But as we rapidly approach 10,000 and given that distribution curves tend to have a long tail, falling more gradually than they rise....I for one very much doubt their figures.
Any mathematicians or statisticians (real or "fab" experts) care to comment? Hopefully constructively "
Currently quick maths
Please prove me wrong pretty please
Assume 65 million
Assume 20 percent
Assume 2 percent death rate
Ok humans do not have immunity
Assume until a vaccination the 2 percent will die when they get the virus
Assume the 20 percent can all survive
Assume 50 percent of 65 million will contract the virus
32 000 000 at 2 percent
640 000
Assume under lockdown
300 000 will be infected monthly
Assume
30 000 new hospital admissions
Deduce
6000 deaths monthly
So
Assume we dip in and out of lock downs
Assume vulnerable people will not be in lock down forever
And rules will begin to be broken. Kids need to see grandma
The number dead will be between
50 000 and 650 000
Depending on how each variable changes with time
650 000 is a time scale completely made up at around 100 months and without vaccination
It does need to be noted
Each year 750 000 die
Of the 650 000
There will be cross over
There also will not
Oh ish
 |
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The 20,000 would have been based on best case scenario, rounded down to reduce panic.
That best case scenario would not have included people being incapable of self preservation and breaking rules that were put there to protect them and the rest of the population.
I don't see us staying below 30,000 but I'll be the first to admit I'm just looking at the shape of the curve and have absolutely no expertise in such things. |
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"There is a leaked documentary today which is quite worrying..its on www.bylinetimes.com
"Leaked" documentary or more deliberate fake news and conspiracy theories aimed at the ignorant and scared?"
you too have are probally much better informed than me so I defer to your greater expertise.
oh by the way the story also appears in the following media
outletshttps://www.newstatesman.com/politics/health/2020/03/government-documents-show-no-planning-ventilators-event-pandemic
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/28/exercise-cygnus-uncovered-pandemic-warnings-buried-government/
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/02/labour-urges-government-publish-findings-2016-pandemic-drill
https://disabilityarts.online/blog/dave-lupton/crippen-exposes-the-truth-behind-exercise-cygnus/
https://www.thenational.scot/news/18346034.exercise-cygnus-tories-failing-nhs-foreshadowed-covid-19-reaction/
so fake news obviously.
|
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Just a curiosity
Mrsa is a nasty lil bug
It seems to keep biting hospitals despite meticulous hygiene
Ok
So per month x number of vulnerable people will be forced out of the safety of their own quarantine due to health issues requiring hospital treatment
Many hospitals contain cov-sars2 patients
It appears its rather difficult to prevent a number of admissions from contracting in hospital
They will die there?
I'd suggest unless the vulnerable quarantine for minimum 9 12 18 months they will contract the virus and die
4 to 10 000 every month till
Oh I just do not know but I think we may need to prepare for long time large numbers and very difficult decisions |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"There is a leaked documentary today which is quite worrying..its on www.bylinetimes.com
"Leaked" documentary or more deliberate fake news and conspiracy theories aimed at the ignorant and scared?
you too have are probally much better informed than me so I defer to your greater expertise.
oh by the way the story also appears in the following media
outletshttps://www.newstatesman.com/politics/health/2020/03/government-documents-show-no-planning-ventilators-event-pandemic
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/28/exercise-cygnus-uncovered-pandemic-warnings-buried-government/
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/02/labour-urges-government-publish-findings-2016-pandemic-drill
https://disabilityarts.online/blog/dave-lupton/crippen-exposes-the-truth-behind-exercise-cygnus/
https://www.thenational.scot/news/18346034.exercise-cygnus-tories-failing-nhs-foreshadowed-covid-19-reaction/
so fake news obviously.
"
There was a time when you argued a point by using one's own logic.
These days you just need to hang a label on the argument:
Fake news
Conspiracy theory/tinfoil hat
Political agenda
Take your pick  |
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Sensual, no good bringing MRSA into this. The SA stands for Staphylococcus aureus, a bacterium that normally inhabits human skin, nasal passage, genital folds, ears etc. The strain that has acquired resistance to multiple antibiotics (MR = methicillin resistant) is still a commensal organism that lives perfectly harmlessly on the outer surfaces of healthy people. Staph aureus only becomes a problem if it is introduced into the bloodstream, and then is usually only an issue if introduced into the bloodstream of fairly unwell or immunocompromised people. "Normal" Staph aureus responds well to a variety of antibiotics, but MRSA does not, and so obviously surgical procedures in hospital, especially things like joint replacement and orthopaedic surgery, run a substantial risk of introducing normal skin commensal organism into the blood. That's when you have a problem and why they generally won't operate on people who are MRSA positive. Note they will not know they are positive until they are screened, because MRSA does not make people sick when it is sitting on their skin etc.
The virus we are talking about is certainly not a commensal microorganism that has evolved alongside humans for ages. Yes, you can be infected but asymptomatic, but the comparison with MRSA is unhelpful, because SARS-CoV2 does not "normally" infect humans ie: it is not commensal and no amount of special hygiene measures are going to eradicate MRSA, given that most people acquire it in the community eg - at home. |
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"There is a leaked documentary today which is quite worrying..its on www.bylinetimes.com
"Leaked" documentary or more deliberate fake news and conspiracy theories aimed at the ignorant and scared?
you too have are probally much better informed than me so I defer to your greater expertise.
oh by the way the story also appears in the following media
outletshttps://www.newstatesman.com/politics/health/2020/03/government-documents-show-no-planning-ventilators-event-pandemic
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/28/exercise-cygnus-uncovered-pandemic-warnings-buried-government/
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/02/labour-urges-government-publish-findings-2016-pandemic-drill
https://disabilityarts.online/blog/dave-lupton/crippen-exposes-the-truth-behind-exercise-cygnus/
https://www.thenational.scot/news/18346034.exercise-cygnus-tories-failing-nhs-foreshadowed-covid-19-reaction/
so fake news obviously.
There was a time when you argued a point by using one's own logic.
These days you just need to hang a label on the argument:
Fake news
Conspiracy theory/tinfoil hat
Political agenda
Take your pick "
The fact that they are using the stock response from a man who literally cannot stop lying says it all. |
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Don't forget that the number of deaths published so far are only for those in hospitals. It's becoming increasingly clear that many people have died in the community, particularly in care homes. There's also a time-lag, often of several days, before recorded deaths are publicised. |
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"Sensual, no good bringing MRSA into this. The SA stands for Staphylococcus aureus, a bacterium that normally inhabits human skin, nasal passage, genital folds, ears etc. The strain that has acquired resistance to multiple antibiotics (MR = methicillin resistant) is still a commensal organism that lives perfectly harmlessly on the outer surfaces of healthy people. Staph aureus only becomes a problem if it is introduced into the bloodstream, and then is usually only an issue if introduced into the bloodstream of fairly unwell or immunocompromised people. "Normal" Staph aureus responds well to a variety of antibiotics, but MRSA does not, and so obviously surgical procedures in hospital, especially things like joint replacement and orthopaedic surgery, run a substantial risk of introducing normal skin commensal organism into the blood. That's when you have a problem and why they generally won't operate on people who are MRSA positive. Note they will not know they are positive until they are screened, because MRSA does not make people sick when it is sitting on their skin etc.
The virus we are talking about is certainly not a commensal microorganism that has evolved alongside humans for ages. Yes, you can be infected but asymptomatic, but the comparison with MRSA is unhelpful, because SARS-CoV2 does not "normally" infect humans ie: it is not commensal and no amount of special hygiene measures are going to eradicate MRSA, given that most people acquire it in the community eg - at home. "
Point understood 
However I think it is true a number have contracted cov-sars2 in hospital
This is not a blame, I was suggesting inevitable ? That it will be exceptionally difficult to protect our vulnerable until a vaccine?
And thus the deaths will continue ? |
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"Don't forget that the number of deaths published so far are only for those in hospitals. It's becoming increasingly clear that many people have died in the community, particularly in care homes. There's also a time-lag, often of several days, before recorded deaths are publicised."
The death rate is much higher.there is literally no doubt about that.
Ah those halcyon days when posters used to say..we are dealing with it better than other countries. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"There is a leaked documentary today which is quite worrying..its on www.bylinetimes.com
"Leaked" documentary or more deliberate fake news and conspiracy theories aimed at the ignorant and scared?
you too have are probally much better informed than me so I defer to your greater expertise.
oh by the way the story also appears in the following media
outletshttps://www.newstatesman.com/politics/health/2020/03/government-documents-show-no-planning-ventilators-event-pandemic
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/28/exercise-cygnus-uncovered-pandemic-warnings-buried-government/
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/02/labour-urges-government-publish-findings-2016-pandemic-drill
https://disabilityarts.online/blog/dave-lupton/crippen-exposes-the-truth-behind-exercise-cygnus/
https://www.thenational.scot/news/18346034.exercise-cygnus-tories-failing-nhs-foreshadowed-covid-19-reaction/
so fake news obviously.
There was a time when you argued a point by using one's own logic.
These days you just need to hang a label on the argument:
Fake news
Conspiracy theory/tinfoil hat
Political agenda
Take your pick
The fact that they are using the stock response from a man who literally cannot stop lying says it all."
Monkey see. Monkey do. |
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It's probably right that we would be very lucky to keep it to 20,000.
What we don't know and have to guess at, is the true number of people infected atm.
What will influence it the most are probably the availability of appropriate hospital care, the number of people who have it who aren't in lockdown such as keyworkers, any available drugs that trials show to be effective at suppressing the illness and these being given at the right point, and government moves to alter the exposure rate of people to others - eg, tighter isolation restrictions, huge volumes of testing the population.
If the current isolation path results in sustained much fewer deaths very quickly, we could hit this number say, until the end of May.
There are so many unknowns atm that make it much harder to know. If summer travel happens, that will introduce greater risks. |
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By *arkus1812Man
over a year ago
Lifes departure lounge NN9 Northamptonshire East not West MidlandsMidlands |
"Seems to be to be a huge underestimation.
We will be past that before next week. I'm thinking in and out of hospital.
It's already near 19,000"
Official death toll at 06.00 hrs today stands at 10.612 |
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"Sensual, no good bringing MRSA into this. The SA stands for Staphylococcus aureus, a bacterium that normally inhabits human skin, nasal passage, genital folds, ears etc. The strain that has acquired resistance to multiple antibiotics (MR = methicillin resistant) is still a commensal organism that lives perfectly harmlessly on the outer surfaces of healthy people. Staph aureus only becomes a problem if it is introduced into the bloodstream, and then is usually only an issue if introduced into the bloodstream of fairly unwell or immunocompromised people. "Normal" Staph aureus responds well to a variety of antibiotics, but MRSA does not, and so obviously surgical procedures in hospital, especially things like joint replacement and orthopaedic surgery, run a substantial risk of introducing normal skin commensal organism into the blood. That's when you have a problem and why they generally won't operate on people who are MRSA positive. Note they will not know they are positive until they are screened, because MRSA does not make people sick when it is sitting on their skin etc.
The virus we are talking about is certainly not a commensal microorganism that has evolved alongside humans for ages. Yes, you can be infected but asymptomatic, but the comparison with MRSA is unhelpful, because SARS-CoV2 does not "normally" infect humans ie: it is not commensal and no amount of special hygiene measures are going to eradicate MRSA, given that most people acquire it in the community eg - at home.
Point understood
However I think it is true a number have contracted cov-sars2 in hospital
This is not a blame, I was suggesting inevitable ? That it will be exceptionally difficult to protect our vulnerable until a vaccine?
And thus the deaths will continue ?"
Sensual, I'm not sure on the hospital acquired SARS-CoV2, I'd have to see data to comment. Ult there is no way of pinpointing when someone became infected, and with an incubation period that can span 2wks, its unlikely that many people are becoming symptomatic as inpatients. Obviously its possible some medical professionals have acquired infection in hospital but even then, they might have acquired it in Tesco or on the bus. Another unknown is whether viral load impacts on severity of disease eg - do more viral particles ingested mean a more serious disease process? I shared an interesting article from New Scientist about this last week. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"Seems to be to be a huge underestimation.
We will be past that before next week. I'm thinking in and out of hospital.
It's already near 19,000
Official death toll at 06.00 hrs today stands at 10.612"
Every day we get one big figure for deaths occurring in the UK. Everyone jumps on this number, taking it to be the latest toll. However NHS England figures – which currently make up the bulk of UK deaths – in fact reflect the day on which the death was reported, not the actual date of death, which is usually days, sometimes weeks, before it appears in the figures.
On 30 March, NHS England reported 159 deaths in the 24 hours to 5pm on Sunday 29 March. However, the actual number of people who died in that 24-hour period was revised up to 401 in Thursday’s report and again to 463 on Friday as more deaths which occurred on that date were reported. And this figure could be revised up again as more deaths come to light.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/04/why-what-we-think-we-know-about-the-uks-coronavirus-death-toll-is-wrong |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"Most of the stats are fake news, it is more a media pandemic about it.
How do you figure this Shag? Dont we all think it is that?"
No. The real numbers are probably higher and the pandemic is real. |
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By *eeBee67Man
over a year ago
Masked and Distant |
It's a serious disease, it is killing people, the media love doom and gloom.
More needs to be shared on the positives, number of recoveries etc.
Currently 0.1% of the UK are confirmed as having the virus. |
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"It's a serious disease, it is killing people, the media love doom and gloom.
More needs to be shared on the positives, number of recoveries etc.
Currently 0.1% of the UK are confirmed as having the virus."
Nearly 1000 people are dying a die . |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"It's a serious disease, it is killing people, the media love doom and gloom.
More needs to be shared on the positives, number of recoveries etc.
Currently 0.1% of the UK are confirmed as having the virus."
That's excellent positive news!
Only 99.9% of the population left to worry about. Phew! |
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By *eeBee67Man
over a year ago
Masked and Distant |
"It's a serious disease, it is killing people, the media love doom and gloom.
More needs to be shared on the positives, number of recoveries etc.
Currently 0.1% of the UK are confirmed as having the virus.
Nearly 1000 people are dying a die ."
And normally on average, 1400 people per day die. Is the "almost" 1000 on top of that, or overlap it, or included in it?
As I said it is a virus that is killing people but not 100% of people who get it. |
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"It's a serious disease, it is killing people, the media love doom and gloom.
More needs to be shared on the positives, number of recoveries etc.
Currently 0.1% of the UK are confirmed as having the virus."
this.. people see the deaths but dont think about the percentage of the population as a whole. While every death is tragic... the media are responsible for a lot of panic and worry. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"It's a serious disease, it is killing people, the media love doom and gloom.
More needs to be shared on the positives, number of recoveries etc.
Currently 0.1% of the UK are confirmed as having the virus."
There are 66million people in britain and so far they say 70000 have it I think it is lower than 0.000000000000001% in total, it is blown out of proportion. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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Currently we have roughly 5000 new cases of COVID-19 per day and roughly 1000 deaths. Meaning that we currently have 120 000 people becoming immune.
To gain 80% of the population required for herd immunity (assuming we have flattened the curve) we only need 444 months (37 years) to infect the rest. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"It's a serious disease, it is killing people, the media love doom and gloom.
More needs to be shared on the positives, number of recoveries etc.
Currently 0.1% of the UK are confirmed as having the virus.There are 66million people in britain and so far they say 70000 have it I think it is lower than 0.000000000000001% in total, it is blown out of proportion."
Which is because of lockdown which we cannot maintain indefinitely... |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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Mortality rate for Covid according to German study is 0.4% for Germany. They have done a shed load of testing ( both antigen and antibody) and probably have the most reliable stats anywhere.
However if this translates to the UK and we keep on with this herd immunity spaff that means ...... 70 million by 0.4% =
280,000 deaths.
Note that 0.4 % is in a country with enough beds and health care!
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/reason.com/2020/04/09/preliminary-german-study-shows-a-covid-19-infection-fatality-rate-of-about-0-4-percent/%3famp |
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Number of deaths probably already nearing 20000.since they only count people who died in hospital. Not the people who are at home or in a care home.
Bitch of a virus this. Hope all of you stay safe and healthy x |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"It's a serious disease, it is killing people, the media love doom and gloom.
More needs to be shared on the positives, number of recoveries etc.
Currently 0.1% of the UK are confirmed as having the virus.
Nearly 1000 people are dying a die .
And normally on average, 1400 people per day die. Is the "almost" 1000 on top of that, or overlap it, or included in it?
As I said it is a virus that is killing people but not 100% of people who get it."
It is on top of. While there is a cross over it's still a significantly increased death rate than normal |
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" people see the deaths but dont think about the percentage of the population as a whole. While every death is tragic... the media are responsible for a lot of panic and worry. "
More of a conversation point than a personal opinion, but could the panic and worry be a longer term positive thing if it makes people think twice before putting themselves and others at risk? |
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" people see the deaths but dont think about the percentage of the population as a whole. While every death is tragic... the media are responsible for a lot of panic and worry.
More of a conversation point than a personal opinion, but could the panic and worry be a longer term positive thing if it makes people think twice before putting themselves and others at risk? "
no the panic and worry is causing deaths.. |
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" people see the deaths but dont think about the percentage of the population as a whole. While every death is tragic... the media are responsible for a lot of panic and worry.
More of a conversation point than a personal opinion, but could the panic and worry be a longer term positive thing if it makes people think twice before putting themselves and others at risk?
no the panic and worry is causing deaths.. "
Pretty sure it is actually covid19 doing the damage  |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"On the up side, it might lose some of its strength over time and a vaccine will be available at some point. Things will get back to normal, but we'll be in for the long haul before we get there x"
It might lose some of it's strength. It might mutate.
It has already mutated once. To become far deadlier... |
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" people see the deaths but dont think about the percentage of the population as a whole. While every death is tragic... the media are responsible for a lot of panic and worry.
More of a conversation point than a personal opinion, but could the panic and worry be a longer term positive thing if it makes people think twice before putting themselves and others at risk? no the panic and worry is causing deaths.. "
Panic doesn't tend to kill you.
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"Currently 0.1% of the UK are confirmed as having the virus."
A lot more people have or have had it than have been confirmed. Most people who are suspected of having it never get tested - mostly so that we can target our limited testing capacity where it is most needed.
The last time I saw an attempt to estimate how many people actually had it was between 1 and 2 weeks ago, when testing of a random sample of people suggested that around 2 million people in the uk had it then. Obviously it would be more now.
This can be seen as both a good and a bad thing: good because it means lots more people will have already had it and be over it, and because the resulting mortality rate will be much lower than the confirmed figures suggest; bad because, with infected numbers in the millions, your chances of coming into contact with the disease increase.
"And normally on average, 1400 people per day die. Is the "almost" 1000 on top of that, or overlap it, or included in it?"
I guess the best way to figure this one out would be to look at the office of national statistics numbers when they come out (at least for Englandand Wales, which counts for the bulk of the population of the UK). They're always a bit behind (it takes time to compile these figures properly) and the latest ones only go up to the 27th of March. Back then the number of covid 19 related deaths was much lower, so the effect in the figures isn't definitive, but you can see that it is at least suggestive that these are extra deaths. There's also the fact that the hospitals are an awful lot busier than they usually are.
I am convinced that they are extra deaths and that the disease is serious. However, I realise that the ONS statistics don't fully back up my argument yet. The picture should be clearer after next week's statistics are released. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"65000 people die of flu and pnumonia every yr in this country and nobody bats a fucking eyelid this pops up and fucking countrys in melt down fucking joke "
If 1000 people die every day then that's 365 000, a bit different to 65 000.
To say no one bats an eyelid isn't exactly true. We have flu vaccinations and flu vaccination campaigns. That's something. |
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"On the up side, it might lose some of its strength over time and a vaccine will be available at some point. Things will get back to normal, but we'll be in for the long haul before we get there x
It might lose some of it's strength. It might mutate.
It has already mutated once. To become far deadlier..."
I'm trying to stay optimistic. Don't even want to consider this thing becoming more vicious x |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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" people see the deaths but dont think about the percentage of the population as a whole. While every death is tragic... the media are responsible for a lot of panic and worry.
More of a conversation point than a personal opinion, but could the panic and worry be a longer term positive thing if it makes people think twice before putting themselves and others at risk? no the panic and worry is causing deaths.. "
Complacency is causing deaths.
An example of this complacency is the people who are trying to minimise this. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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People generally get to say good bye to their loved ones with flu( apart from Highly pathogenic flu which is less than 0.1 % of all flu cases)
Saying good by to your loved ones on what’s app is a complete loss of a basic human right. This disease is killing people but it will scar so many more for a lifetime. Every life saved to this disease is precious. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"65000 people die of flu and pnumonia every yr in this country and nobody bats a fucking eyelid this pops up and fucking countrys in melt down fucking joke "
Do you have a source for the 65000 figure? |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"On the up side, it might lose some of its strength over time and a vaccine will be available at some point. Things will get back to normal, but we'll be in for the long haul before we get there x
It might lose some of it's strength. It might mutate.
It has already mutated once. To become far deadlier...
I'm trying to stay optimistic. Don't even want to consider this thing becoming more vicious x"
It's beautiful that you're being optimistic. I am too.
I am also aware that this will one day be a movie where we hold our heads in our hands and say "how the hell were we all so stupid!" |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"Saying good by to your loved ones on what’s app is a complete loss of a basic human right. This disease is killing people but it will scar so many more for a lifetime. Every life saved to this disease is precious."
When this is over there are going to be an awful lot of people needing an awful lot of support for PTSD and other mental health issues. Not just professionals working on the frontline but families left traumatised by the circumstances around the deaths of loved ones. It's not just not saying goodbye, it's not seeing the body afterwards, not having a proper funeral. People are going to have to process an awful lot of grief at the end of this and much like the rest of the NHS the services aren't in place to support people |
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" people see the deaths but dont think about the percentage of the population as a whole. While every death is tragic... the media are responsible for a lot of panic and worry.
More of a conversation point than a personal opinion, but could the panic and worry be a longer term positive thing if it makes people think twice before putting themselves and others at risk?
no the panic and worry is causing deaths..
Pretty sure it is actually covid19 doing the damage "
you tell that to the people taking their own lives due to fear of it..when the actual number of people who have it is very low |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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" people see the deaths but dont think about the percentage of the population as a whole. While every death is tragic... the media are responsible for a lot of panic and worry.
More of a conversation point than a personal opinion, but could the panic and worry be a longer term positive thing if it makes people think twice before putting themselves and others at risk?
no the panic and worry is causing deaths..
Pretty sure it is actually covid19 doing the damage you tell that to the people taking their own lives due to fear of it..when the actual number of people who have it is very low"
Has there been a reported increase in suicides then? And has that increase being attributed to fears around covid-19.
Or are you just using an emotive reference to try and strengthen an argument? |
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" no the panic and worry is causing deaths.. "
But certainly not 20,000 of them.
We'll never know the answer for certain, but I'd be very surprised if the panic and worry haven't significantly shaped a large number of peoples behaviour over the last few weeks and kept them out of harms way as a result.
|
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" people see the deaths but dont think about the percentage of the population as a whole. While every death is tragic... the media are responsible for a lot of panic and worry.
More of a conversation point than a personal opinion, but could the panic and worry be a longer term positive thing if it makes people think twice before putting themselves and others at risk?
no the panic and worry is causing deaths..
Pretty sure it is actually covid19 doing the damage you tell that to the people taking their own lives due to fear of it..when the actual number of people who have it is very low
Has there been a reported increase in suicides then? And has that increase being attributed to fears around covid-19.
Or are you just using an emotive reference to try and strengthen an argument?"
there has been an increase. Helplines are struggling to keep up with the mental health issue this is causing. It's being very underreported and thats before you start taking into account the people that will die due to abuse or neglect during the crisis |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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We must also start counting the number of deaths and children going hungry if this lockdown continues, the country is bleeding to death. So is the cure worse than the virus? |
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" no the panic and worry is causing deaths..
But certainly not 20,000 of them.
We'll never know the answer for certain, but I'd be very surprised if the panic and worry haven't significantly shaped a large number of peoples behaviour over the last few weeks and kept them out of harms way as a result.
"
there should be more positive reports. What about focusing on how many have survived every day rather than just the deaths...which arent being properly reported.
When you have sat on the end of a support line and listened to the persons absolute fear due to some badly written journalism and hope and pray that you can talk them down from harming themselves... or spoke to a woman terrified for her life because now she is locked down 24/7 with the man that abuses her.. then make light of it. We know the virus is killing a percentage of the population...and yeah it's not good. But the panic and lockdown are causing many many issues too. For some the biggest annoyance is not going to the pub.. but I've spent hours and hours during this talking to those that are panicking or scared or so so alone that ending life seems the better option.
And a lot of it is coming from the way the media are reporting stuff. |
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"We must also start counting the number of deaths and children going hungry if this lockdown continues, the country is bleeding to death. So is the cure worse than the virus? "
People were going hungry before The virus |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"We must also start counting the number of deaths and children going hungry if this lockdown continues, the country is bleeding to death. So is the cure worse than the virus? "
No. |
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"We must also start counting the number of deaths and children going hungry if this lockdown continues, the country is bleeding to death. So is the cure worse than the virus?
No."
I cant believe people are actually arguing this. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"We must also start counting the number of deaths and children going hungry if this lockdown continues, the country is bleeding to death. So is the cure worse than the virus?
No.
I cant believe people are actually arguing this."
I can. It's almost a word for word repetition of a Trump tweet. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/23/us/politics/trump-coronavirus-restrictions.html
Trump Says Coronavirus Cure Cannot ‘Be Worse Than the Problem Itself’
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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Agreed it’s causing a lot of mental issues myself included. I no nothing about the science behind it all we’re just normal folk desperate for some kinda positive from somewhere. If there ain’t none fine if there is we’re the harm in publishing it. |
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"
When you have sat on the end of a support line and listened to the persons absolute fear due to some badly written journalism and hope and pray that you can talk them down from harming themselves... or spoke to a woman terrified for her life because now she is locked down 24/7 with the man that abuses her.. then make light of it "
I'm not making light of anything.
The lockdown is what it is though and whilst I share your concern about people trapped with an abusive partner, a good news story isn't going to resolve that particular issue. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"We must also start counting the number of deaths and children going hungry if this lockdown continues, the country is bleeding to death. So is the cure worse than the virus?
No."
I cant believe people are actually arguing this.
The truth is that until you control the virus- it controls you. Stock markets require confidence so unless a country shows it is dealing with the virus and has a plausible exit strategy ( not herd immunity) then economically it’s going to struggle.
The failure to have enough test kits and use them strategically- especially during lock down periods not only cost lives - it is greatly damaging to the economy
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"Seems to be to be a huge underestimation.
We will be past that before next week. I'm thinking in and out of hospital.
It's already near 19,000
Official death toll at 06.00 hrs today stands at 10.612"
I said IN and OUT of hospital.
The figures given on t.v. news are hospital deaths. There are many other deaths from corona. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"118 died in hospitals today the rest of the numbers are made from people dying between 1st and 12th so don't believe everything you hear.
So who is lying exactly?"
No one's lying but media love big numbers they always say them with a smile, watch their faces. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"118 died in hospitals today the rest of the numbers are made from people dying between 1st and 12th so don't believe everything you hear.
So who is lying exactly?No one's lying but media love big numbers they always say them with a smile, watch their faces. "
That is right the media likes that cos it makes the headlines, you never hear of how many who have recovered almost there. |
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"
When you have sat on the end of a support line and listened to the persons absolute fear due to some badly written journalism and hope and pray that you can talk them down from harming themselves... or spoke to a woman terrified for her life because now she is locked down 24/7 with the man that abuses her.. then make light of it
I'm not making light of anything.
The lockdown is what it is though and whilst I share your concern about people trapped with an abusive partner, a good news story isn't going to resolve that particular issue."
no but a positive story and concentrating on the people survived or getting better would lift the spirits of those that are actually thinking that suicide is better than risking the virus. And I can assure you that there is an awful lot of scared vulnerable people out there .. our main line at the moment is to ask them to limit their exposure to news stories..but how do you do that without further isolation. Cant even put a movie on sky on demand without it having a warning about the virus.
The true number of deaths caused by the pandemic will be much higher than those actually contracting the virus and this seems to be being ignored.
I spoke to a gent yesterday who hasnt left his home in a week due to fear of being arrested ... due to all the stories.. |
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"65000 people die of flu and pnumonia every yr in this country and nobody bats a fucking eyelid this pops up and fucking countrys in melt down fucking joke "
Not quite. This is highly contagious and as yet we have no immunity and no vaccine.
228,000 people died in the U.K. alone the last time we were in this position. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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Let us reflect on why we are in this mess...
If we had known what was to come we would have all stayed at home.
But instead we had people minimising the severity of the virus and calling those who tried to bring the statistics to the fore "scaremongerers".
They are the people who are responsible for this. They perpetuated a feeling of complacency. They are the ones who encouraged us to carry on as usual.
The fact that some of us are still doing it now... |
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"
When you have sat on the end of a support line and listened to the persons absolute fear due to some badly written journalism and hope and pray that you can talk them down from harming themselves... or spoke to a woman terrified for her life because now she is locked down 24/7 with the man that abuses her.. then make light of it
I'm not making light of anything.
The lockdown is what it is though and whilst I share your concern about people trapped with an abusive partner, a good news story isn't going to resolve that particular issue. no but a positive story and concentrating on the people survived or getting better would lift the spirits of those that are actually thinking that suicide is better than risking the virus. And I can assure you that there is an awful lot of scared vulnerable people out there .. our main line at the moment is to ask them to limit their exposure to news stories..but how do you do that without further isolation. Cant even put a movie on sky on demand without it having a warning about the virus.
The true number of deaths caused by the pandemic will be much higher than those actually contracting the virus and this seems to be being ignored.
I spoke to a gent yesterday who hasnt left his home in a week due to fear of being arrested ... due to all the stories.. "
I can appreciate that must be difficult . There are a lot of people and just as many ways of looking at the same information. Finding a balance between being scary enough to get one set of people to be careful whilst not over-frightening others is not easy.
My personal way of looking at the situation is very much through the numbers. I'm quite a mathematical person but I guess it also helps me to feel in control if I can calculate my own risk. There is some good news, even sticking to what I believe are numbers from reputable sources.
I mentioned in a previous post that *way* more people have, or have had, it than the "confirmed" numbers suggest. That may not sound like good news but it does mean that your chances are extremely good if you catch it. Better than 99% if estimates from epidemiologists are correct.
The projections of the number of people who might die in the uk sound large - maybe 20,000 to 40,000. But, as many people have pointed out, that's similar to the number of people who might die of flu in a bad year. 2015 was a bad year for flu with about 30,000 deaths. Most people will likely not remremember 2015 as being particularly remarkable.
But we should not be complacent: we will *only* achieve those numbers because we have - and must still - put in lots of effort. But we have so far come together well, for the most part, in the face of adversity. There is positivity in being proud of that. |
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"Don't forget that the number of deaths published so far are only for those in hospitals. It's becoming increasingly clear that many people have died in the community, particularly in care homes. There's also a time-lag, often of several days, before recorded deaths are publicised.
The death rate is much higher.there is literally no doubt about that.
Ah those halcyon days when posters used to say..we are dealing with it better than other countries."
But the official figures still show we're dealing with this better than Spain and the US, slightly better than Italy and France but not as good as Germany, South Korea or Taiwan.
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"65000 people die of flu and pnumonia every yr in this country and nobody bats a fucking eyelid this pops up and fucking countrys in melt down fucking joke "
About 65,000 is the estimated number of deaths per year from flu in the US. The number for the UK is closer to 17,000 but it fluctuates vastly. In 2018/9 the estimated deaths from flu in the UK was about 1,500.
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By *asIsaCouple
over a year ago
harrow |
"
When you have sat on the end of a support line and listened to the persons absolute fear due to some badly written journalism and hope and pray that you can talk them down from harming themselves... or spoke to a woman terrified for her life because now she is locked down 24/7 with the man that abuses her.. then make light of it
I'm not making light of anything.
The lockdown is what it is though and whilst I share your concern about people trapped with an abusive partner, a good news story isn't going to resolve that particular issue. no but a positive story and concentrating on the people survived or getting better would lift the spirits of those that are actually thinking that suicide is better than risking the virus. And I can assure you that there is an awful lot of scared vulnerable people out there .. our main line at the moment is to ask them to limit their exposure to news stories..but how do you do that without further isolation. Cant even put a movie on sky on demand without it having a warning about the virus.
The true number of deaths caused by the pandemic will be much higher than those actually contracting the virus and this seems to be being ignored.
I spoke to a gent yesterday who hasnt left his home in a week due to fear of being arrested ... due to all the stories..
I can appreciate that must be difficult . There are a lot of people and just as many ways of looking at the same information. Finding a balance between being scary enough to get one set of people to be careful whilst not over-frightening others is not easy.
My personal way of looking at the situation is very much through the numbers. I'm quite a mathematical person but I guess it also helps me to feel in control if I can calculate my own risk. There is some good news, even sticking to what I believe are numbers from reputable sources.
I mentioned in a previous post that *way* more people have, or have had, it than the "confirmed" numbers suggest. That may not sound like good news but it does mean that your chances are extremely good if you catch it. Better than 99% if estimates from epidemiologists are correct.
The projections of the number of people who might die in the uk sound large - maybe 20,000 to 40,000. But, as many people have pointed out, that's similar to the number of people who might die of flu in a bad year. 2015 was a bad year for flu with about 30,000 deaths. Most people will likely not remremember 2015 as being particularly remarkable.
But we should not be complacent: we will *only* achieve those numbers because we have - and must still - put in lots of effort. But we have so far come together well, for the most part, in the face of adversity. There is positivity in being proud of that."
Well said sir! |
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There are still so many complacent people, a few of them posting on this thread. This virus is much worse than the flu, stop comparing it just to try and belittle it. People are dying and they are dying quickly and without their loved ones. There is no way of stopping it, only slowing down its spread. Why do people still think that this has all been blown out of proportion? Why would governments across the world bankrupt themselves by imposing lockdowns, why would new hospitals be built with such haste, why would mass graves be dug in other countries if it’s the same as the flu??? Mrs is working in an itu ward, she’s seeing it and it isn’t the bloody flu. As to reporting survival rates to give everyone some good news, how many idiots do you think that would encourage to ignore the lockdown and go out still? Complacency and pig headed selfish idiots will continue to spread this virus, hopefully the sensible and careful people will outnumber them enough to keep the infection rate low enough so that the nhs can continue to cope. |
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