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"Russian roulette"
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There are around 66000 men in the UK with hiv. Around 21000 are hetero. Let's assume half of the rest are bi. That gives us around 45000 men who have sex with women who have hiv.
The sexually active hetero and bi male population in the UK is around 20 million. So roughly one in 500 of that population will have hiv.
If a woman has unprotected vaginal sex with a hiv positive man she has a a 1 in 1250 chance of being infected.
Thus the chances of a woman contracting hiv from unprotected vaginal sex with a random man is 1 in 500 x 1250 = 1 in 625000.
The chances of a woman dying in childbirth in the UK is around 1 in 12000.
Thus a woman in the UK is around fifty times more likely to die giving birth than she is contracting hiv from bareback vaginal sex with a random man. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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Dontcha just love stats?
There are over 100,000 people with HIV in the UK... from a population of 60 million that equates to 1 in 600.... take out the sexually inactive people, ie children and the elderly, that stat becomes lower |
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"I was making a general point about appetite for risk. Objectively childbirth is far more dangerous than bareback sex. Yet no one says having a baby is like playing Russian roulette.
"
Sensitive subject. I’m at the teenage bit which feels like a dangerous game frequently  |
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A thought experiment.
If someone invited you to play a game saying "pick a number between 1 and 625000. If you pick the number I have written on this piece of paper, I will shoot you. If you pick any other number I will give you a cash reward", would you play the game and, if so, what would be the minimum cash price you would play for? |
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"T
If a woman has unprotected vaginal sex with a hiv positive man she has a a 1 in 1250 chance of being infected.
"
Hmm, I don't think I believe that statistic - we've all heard the stories of people infected on a single unprotected encounter. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"T
If a woman has unprotected vaginal sex with a hiv positive man she has a a 1 in 1250 chance of being infected.
Hmm, I don't think I believe that statistic - we've all heard the stories of people infected on a single unprotected encounter."
^^^ This.... it really is luck of the draw, wrong place wrong time is all it takes |
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"T
If a woman has unprotected vaginal sex with a hiv positive man she has a a 1 in 1250 chance of being infected.
Hmm, I don't think I believe that statistic - we've all heard the stories of people infected on a single unprotected encounter."
Indeed. Just like we have heard of people winning the lottery even though the chances of that are even less. |
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20,000,000 divided by 66,000 = 304
Regardless of sexuality, that is still a high proportion.
What about other STDs and pregnancy?
If we all threw caution to the wind, that figure will increase dramatically. These diseases could be wiped off the face of the planet for good but sadly all the time bare back fun with strangers and no knowledge of sexual history is priority for some, the risk will always be there. Just seems rather selfish and stupid to me.
Ed |
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"20,000,000 divided by 66,000 = 304
Regardless of sexuality, that is still a high proportion.
What about other STDs and pregnancy?
If we all threw caution to the wind, that figure will increase dramatically. These diseases could be wiped off the face of the planet for good but sadly all the time bare back fun with strangers and no knowledge of sexual history is priority for some, the risk will always be there. Just seems rather selfish and stupid to me.
Ed"
The figures are given for men who have sex with men and hetero men. I generously put half the former as no, which is probably too high, to get my figure. |
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I've found the data you quote - you forgot to add the following risk factors:
H Acute infection, roughly the 12 weeks after contracting HIV, can increase transmission likelihood 26 times,
raising a 1.43% risk to 37%—higher than 1 in 3. This is because viral load skyrockets during the acute phase.
So that's up to a 1 in 3 risk if 'she' has unprotected anal.
|
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"T
If a woman has unprotected vaginal sex with a hiv positive man she has a a 1 in 1250 chance of being infected.
Hmm, I don't think I believe that statistic - we've all heard the stories of people infected on a single unprotected encounter.
Indeed. Just like we have heard of people winning the lottery even though the chances of that are even less. "
Yup - because it could be me!! |
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"I've found the data you quote - you forgot to add the following risk factors:
H Acute infection, roughly the 12 weeks after contracting HIV, can increase transmission likelihood 26 times,
raising a 1.43% risk to 37%—higher than 1 in 3. This is because viral load skyrockets during the acute phase.
So that's up to a 1 in 3 risk if 'she' has unprotected anal.
"
Yes, which is why I said unprotected vaginal sex with a random man. Obviously some people are higher Risk but that means everyone else is lower risk. The figure is an average. Pick a man at random and have unprotected vaginal sex with him and your chances of getting hiv are 1 in 625000 |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"How many people have herpes? Chlamydia? Syphilis? Genital Warts? Ghonorea? HIV isn't the only risk.  "
Also, the risk of unwanted pregnancy. No contraception is 100%. |
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"
The chances of a woman dying in childbirth in the UK is around 1 in 12000.
Thus a woman in the UK is around fifty times more likely to die giving birth than she is contracting hiv from bareback vaginal sex with a random man. "
I've 'died' twice during childbirth.
I'm taking no chances with my sex life! |
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"How many people have herpes? Chlamydia? Syphilis? Genital Warts? Ghonorea? HIV isn't the only risk.
Also, the risk of unwanted pregnancy. No contraception is 100%."
Although statistically condoms are one the least effective contraceptives - better than the last minute pull out but that’s about it!
A few female swinging friends use an alternative form of contraception as well as condoms |
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"I was making a general point about appetite for risk. Objectively childbirth is far more dangerous than bareback sex. Yet no one says having a baby is like playing Russian roulette.
"
But there is 0 chance of getting an STI from childbirth. |
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"A thought experiment.
If someone invited you to play a game saying "pick a number between 1 and 625000. If you pick the number I have written on this piece of paper, I will shoot you. If you pick any other number I will give you a cash reward", would you play the game and, if so, what would be the minimum cash price you would play for? "
I’d play that game for 5 grand ....  |
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Oh this might be my favourite thread of all time... numbers (yay).
Right so how many women do you know that select their sexual partners randomly? We all know chimps do, but no women.
The fun calaculation you should do is see how much a woman reduces her risk by refusing to sleep with anyone bi. Quite a lot it turns out. If she refuses to sleep with anyone bi and anyone from london, Brighton or manchester then her chances of getting HIV are into several decimal places. |
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"Oh this might be my favourite thread of all time... numbers (yay).
Right so how many women do you know that select their sexual partners randomly? We all know chimps do, but no women.
The fun calaculation you should do is see how much a woman reduces her risk by refusing to sleep with anyone bi. Quite a lot it turns out. If she refuses to sleep with anyone bi and anyone from london, Brighton or manchester then her chances of getting HIV are into several decimal places. "
Ah ok. Need to add an addendum to our profile then. No dirty filthy hoes from London, Manchester or the ghey capital. |
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"Oh this might be my favourite thread of all time... numbers (yay).
Right so how many women do you know that select their sexual partners randomly? We all know chimps do, but no women.
The fun calaculation you should do is see how much a woman reduces her risk by refusing to sleep with anyone bi. Quite a lot it turns out. If she refuses to sleep with anyone bi and anyone from london, Brighton or manchester then her chances of getting HIV are into several decimal places.
Ah ok. Need to add an addendum to our profile then. No dirty filthy hoes from London, Manchester or the ghey capital. "
Well that's just HIV, you might want to avoid leeds too if super gonorrhea keeps you up at night |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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As someone who has a terminal illness that affects roughly 1 in 600,000, I don't tend to sit around marvelling at the figures.
I tend to think more of how precious life is and I wish this cunt wasn't killing me. If I could of avoided it (probably genetic combined with environmental) I would of.
Believe me, making your peace with the Grim Reaper at a relatively young age isn't fun. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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I'm useless with numbers but from someones statistics on another thread I read the other day was saying every 8th person you sleep with from fab will probably have an sexually transmitted infection, is sex with a stranger worth your health?? Simple answer...... NO. |
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"I'm useless with numbers but from someones statistics on another thread I read the other day was saying every 8th person you sleep with from fab will probably have an sexually transmitted infection, is sex with a stranger worth your health?? Simple answer...... NO."
Not us. We struggle to get meets so we are squeaky |
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"I'm useless with numbers but from someones statistics on another thread I read the other day was saying every 8th person you sleep with from fab will probably have an sexually transmitted infection, is sex with a stranger worth your health?? Simple answer...... NO."
Will probably have , or will probably have had ?
This seems a scary prospect as we have been on and off fab for seven years , and have had at least 1,000 meets in this time , so we would have had at least 129 STIs .
Funny that we have been tested every six weeks and have yet to get one ...... |
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"I've found the data you quote - you forgot to add the following risk factors:
H Acute infection, roughly the 12 weeks after contracting HIV, can increase transmission likelihood 26 times,
raising a 1.43% risk to 37%—higher than 1 in 3. This is because viral load skyrockets during the acute phase.
So that's up to a 1 in 3 risk if 'she' has unprotected anal.
Yes, which is why I said unprotected vaginal sex with a random man. Obviously some people are higher Risk
"
Yup, like swingers and the fab straight!!! The fact remains that 60 thousand people in the UK are HIV positive, and every year a couple of thousand more heterosexuals join them.  |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"I'm useless with numbers but from someones statistics on another thread I read the other day was saying every 8th person you sleep with from fab will probably have an sexually transmitted infection, is sex with a stranger worth your health?? Simple answer...... NO.
Will probably have , or will probably have had ?
This seems a scary prospect as we have been on and off fab for seven years , and have had at least 1,000 meets in this time , so we would have had at least 129 STIs .
Funny that we have been tested every six weeks and have yet to get one ...... "
Has every meet been unprotected? |
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"I'm useless with numbers but from someones statistics on another thread I read the other day was saying every 8th person you sleep with from fab will probably have an sexually transmitted infection, is sex with a stranger worth your health?? Simple answer...... NO."
Were you looking for the mumsnet and clicked the wrong link? |
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1 60,000 KNOW they are hiv positive we have no idea of the stats of those who don't know
2 nobody's mentioned hepatitis which is also a very nasty illness that can be fatal.
3 fatality can be indirect - see cervical cancer eg
4 I've nursed AIDS patients, it's a horrific illness and personally I think that's played down too much these days. Yes you can live with hiv - to an almost normal lifespan depending when you contract, get tested, get treatment and if you respond to treatment but the hiv positive will more than likely die earlier than they would have from AIDS |
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"1 60,000 KNOW they are hiv positive we have no idea of the stats of those who don't know
2 nobody's mentioned hepatitis which is also a very nasty illness that can be fatal.
3 fatality can be indirect - see cervical cancer eg
4 I've nursed AIDS patients, it's a horrific illness and personally I think that's played down too much these days. Yes you can live with hiv - to an almost normal lifespan depending when you contract, get tested, get treatment and if you respond to treatment but the hiv positive will more than likely die earlier than they would have from AIDS "
13,500 is a good estimate of those that are infected but don't know |
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"I'm useless with numbers but from someones statistics on another thread I read the other day was saying every 8th person you sleep with from fab will probably have an sexually transmitted infection, is sex with a stranger worth your health?? Simple answer...... NO.
Will probably have , or will probably have had ?
This seems a scary prospect as we have been on and off fab for seven years , and have had at least 1,000 meets in this time , so we would have had at least 129 STIs .
Funny that we have been tested every six weeks and have yet to get one ......
Has every meet been unprotected? "
No , all oral was but very few bare intercourse to be fair . |
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"I'm useless with numbers but from someones statistics on another thread I read the other day was saying every 8th person you sleep with from fab will probably have an sexually transmitted infection, is sex with a stranger worth your health?? Simple answer...... NO.
Will probably have , or will probably have had ?
This seems a scary prospect as we have been on and off fab for seven years , and have had at least 1,000 meets in this time , so we would have had at least 129 STIs .
Funny that we have been tested every six weeks and have yet to get one ......
Has every meet been unprotected?
No , all oral was but very few bare intercourse to be fair ."
But you've met people who did get them, that story was hillarious |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"I did this and found that im not paying for the health of having HIV im paying for a child for the next 18 years with somebody i dont know"
as a swinging single female I take the pill as well as condoms!! Extra safe |
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"I'm useless with numbers but from someones statistics on another thread I read the other day was saying every 8th person you sleep with from fab will probably have an sexually transmitted infection, is sex with a stranger worth your health?? Simple answer...... NO.
Will probably have , or will probably have had ?
This seems a scary prospect as we have been on and off fab for seven years , and have had at least 1,000 meets in this time , so we would have had at least 129 STIs .
Funny that we have been tested every six weeks and have yet to get one ......
Has every meet been unprotected?
No , all oral was but very few bare intercourse to be fair .
But you've met people who did get them, that story was hillarious"
What story ? |
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"I'm useless with numbers but from someones statistics on another thread I read the other day was saying every 8th person you sleep with from fab will probably have an sexually transmitted infection, is sex with a stranger worth your health?? Simple answer...... NO.
Will probably have , or will probably have had ?
This seems a scary prospect as we have been on and off fab for seven years , and have had at least 1,000 meets in this time , so we would have had at least 129 STIs .
Funny that we have been tested every six weeks and have yet to get one ......
Has every meet been unprotected?
No , all oral was but very few bare intercourse to be fair .
But you've met people who did get them, that story was hillarious
What story ? "
The one about the couple in a club where you smelt the infection... |
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"I'm useless with numbers but from someones statistics on another thread I read the other day was saying every 8th person you sleep with from fab will probably have an sexually transmitted infection, is sex with a stranger worth your health?? Simple answer...... NO.
Will probably have , or will probably have had ?
This seems a scary prospect as we have been on and off fab for seven years , and have had at least 1,000 meets in this time , so we would have had at least 129 STIs .
Funny that we have been tested every six weeks and have yet to get one ......
Has every meet been unprotected?
No , all oral was but very few bare intercourse to be fair .
But you've met people who did get them, that story was hillarious
What story ?
The one about the couple in a club where you smelt the infection..."
Oh yes , that one .... thanks for reminding us just as we are about to eat !!!!! |
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"I've found the data you quote - you forgot to add the following risk factors:
H Acute infection, roughly the 12 weeks after contracting HIV, can increase transmission likelihood 26 times,
raising a 1.43% risk to 37%—higher than 1 in 3. This is because viral load skyrockets during the acute phase.
So that's up to a 1 in 3 risk if 'she' has unprotected anal.
"
On the other hand increasing number of studies that suggest patient son modern drug regimes can't transmit the virus....
SO the statistical premise of this is very wonly
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The numbers are interesting but don't tell the whole story. Measuring HIV+ numbers against the whole adult population is misleading because we are most likely to shag someone (else) who sleeps around - and they are the people most likely to have an STI. There are probably insufficient data available to work through the calculation - and the data we have are probably based on quite a few lies.
Finally even if you could tell me with certainty that the risk was x% I'm not sure that I would behave any differently. Much though I hate condoms the risk of an STI freaks me, and I'm not prepared to take it. I am, however, prepared to dash across a busy road. Others take the opposite view. Both positions are more psychological than statistical. But I am, of course, right - in this as in all other things...  |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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I have found that not having sex at all is 100% sure way of staying clear of any sti's or pregnancy!
Obviously I have stayed sex free for health reasons!  ha ha xx |
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"I have found that not having sex at all is 100% sure way of staying clear of any sti's or pregnancy!
Obviously I have stayed sex free for health reasons! ha ha xx"
Thats why women hate sex robots, it will turn society on it's head... |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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A lady friend of mine was date sexual intercoursed (I can't post the actual term apparantly but it wasn't consensual) and from one encounter caught syphilis.
Statistics are fine unless you are one of them. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"no conclusion don't get the point of all the statics lol
I never got the point of it, I read it and got bored as soon as maths were involved.
"
Is that because the statistics (ab)used here were nothing to do with supporting a point of view but everything to.do with shouting loudest? |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"The numbers are interesting but don't tell the whole story. Measuring HIV+ numbers against the whole adult population is misleading because we are most likely to shag someone (else) who sleeps around - and they are the people most likely to have an STI. There are probably insufficient data available to work through the calculation - and the data we have are probably based on quite a few lies.
Finally even if you could tell me with certainty that the risk was x% I'm not sure that I would behave any differently. Much though I hate condoms the risk of an STI freaks me, and I'm not prepared to take it. I am, however, prepared to dash across a busy road. Others take the opposite view. Both positions are more psychological than statistical. But I am, of course, right - in this as in all other things... "
This is why I don't like statistics. They will never have the right data to give a true answer. It will always be skewed to whatever group they've taken it from.
So to me it's still 50/50. |
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" This is why I don't like statistics. They will never have the right data to give a true answer. It will always be skewed to whatever group they've taken it from.
So to me it's still 50/50."
The best.
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i use this simply rule to try and let understand how quickly things can change you life just get a calculator put the number of people you have slept with and times it buy the same number keep pushing the equals button after tem goes look at the total number of people you would of swapped DNA and who knows what else with makes most of then think twice lol |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"no conclusion don't get the point of all the statics lol
I never got the point of it, I read it and got bored as soon as maths were involved.
Is that because the statistics (ab)used here were nothing to do with supporting a point of view but everything to.do with shouting loudest?"
I'm not quite sure what his point of view was. It's easier to just say it, rather than trying to back anything up with mind boggling statistics.
|
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"The numbers are interesting but don't tell the whole story. Measuring HIV+ numbers against the whole adult population is misleading because we are most likely to shag someone (else) who sleeps around - and they are the people most likely to have an STI. There are probably insufficient data available to work through the calculation - and the data we have are probably based on quite a few lies.
Finally even if you could tell me with certainty that the risk was x% I'm not sure that I would behave any differently. Much though I hate condoms the risk of an STI freaks me, and I'm not prepared to take it. I am, however, prepared to dash across a busy road. Others take the opposite view. Both positions are more psychological than statistical. But I am, of course, right - in this as in all other things...
This is why I don't like statistics. They will never have the right data to give a true answer. It will always be skewed to whatever group they've taken it from.
So to me it's still 50/50."
Again, that's not how probability works |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"The numbers are interesting but don't tell the whole story. Measuring HIV+ numbers against the whole adult population is misleading because we are most likely to shag someone (else) who sleeps around - and they are the people most likely to have an STI. There are probably insufficient data available to work through the calculation - and the data we have are probably based on quite a few lies.
Finally even if you could tell me with certainty that the risk was x% I'm not sure that I would behave any differently. Much though I hate condoms the risk of an STI freaks me, and I'm not prepared to take it. I am, however, prepared to dash across a busy road. Others take the opposite view. Both positions are more psychological than statistical. But I am, of course, right - in this as in all other things...
This is why I don't like statistics. They will never have the right data to give a true answer. It will always be skewed to whatever group they've taken it from.
So to me it's still 50/50.
Again, that's not how probability works "
Oh I don't know. It either will, or won't. |
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"The numbers are interesting but don't tell the whole story. Measuring HIV+ numbers against the whole adult population is misleading because we are most likely to shag someone (else) who sleeps around - and they are the people most likely to have an STI. There are probably insufficient data available to work through the calculation - and the data we have are probably based on quite a few lies.
Finally even if you could tell me with certainty that the risk was x% I'm not sure that I would behave any differently. Much though I hate condoms the risk of an STI freaks me, and I'm not prepared to take it. I am, however, prepared to dash across a busy road. Others take the opposite view. Both positions are more psychological than statistical. But I am, of course, right - in this as in all other things...
This is why I don't like statistics. They will never have the right data to give a true answer. It will always be skewed to whatever group they've taken it from.
So to me it's still 50/50.
Again, that's not how probability works
Oh I don't know. It either will, or won't. "
On the positive side, in that world southampton have a 1/20 chance of winning the premiership this year |
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