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A New Government In Summer
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By *oo hot OP Couple
over a year ago
North West |
It appears that we will have a new leader of the Conservative Party by August and thereby, by default a new Cabinet and Government.
But really - what will change?
Parliament and the country remain equally divided on the question of Europe. It has been suggested that a Brexiter PM will just let the country crash out of the EU on October 31st. I can’t see a Conservative Prime Minister wilfully committing the country to economic self-harm and the GBP is still sliding with that threat in the background.
Theresa May picked a poison chalice when she became PM but surely the situation is even more perilous now for who follows her?
Logic would dictate that the new PM goes to the country to get a mandate but it is unlikely that Parliament will vote for an early election. The threat to the currency, the economy, jobs and our standing in the world remains with a no deal exit and the only deal on the table has been rejected by Parliament and the EU won’t revisit the document.
Something has to give.
But what? |
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Maybe Boris has a cunning plan, he didn't want to pick up the brexit when Cameron stepped aside so he must now have something in mind surely if he aims to be PM..
It can't possibly be that he only wants the keys and kudos and has no idea what to do..
I agree they won't call a GE but I now think it's probably the only way to sort this as Westminster looks less likely to resolve it day by day..
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"It can't possibly be that he only wants the keys and kudos and has no idea what to do
"
Unfortunately that assumes that Boris the spider has intelligence, a caring nature, compassion (none of which could be attributed to that clown).
As far as a GE goes... Parliament is at an impass, changing sides with an election only serves to reverse which side of the house they currently sit on, not what/how they all feel. I honestly don't see a way out of this debacle other than the EU losing patience and saying "enough is enough" and expelling the UK. |
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By *ara JTV/TS
over a year ago
Bristol East |
Appointing a hard Brexiteer will drive a coach and horses through the Conservative Party.
Parliament has already made it clear there can be no EU exit without an agreement.
The EU is already working on the assumption the UK will seek an extension beyond October 31.
If a new leader calls an election while the UK is still a member of the EU, the Conservative Party will be thrashed by the Brexit Party.
The only way through the conundrum that I can see is a referendum.
On what exactly, I don't know.
But right now, there is no mandate for a no-deal exit and no Parliamentary will for one.
He or she would need a mandate from somewhere to crash out of the EU, and a referendum is the only realistic option for that.
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"The only way through the conundrum that I can see is a referendum.
On what exactly, I don't know."
I think it's clear on what, Parliament has failed abysmally to deal with this for 3 years now. A referendum should ask the public:
Do you want to remain or
Do you want to leave with no deal
Because this lot could continue to fart around until hell freezes over and still find no common ground. |
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By *oo hot OP Couple
over a year ago
North West |
"The only way through the conundrum that I can see is a referendum.
On what exactly, I don't know.
I think it's clear on what, Parliament has failed abysmally to deal with this for 3 years now. A referendum should ask the public:
Do you want to remain or
Do you want to leave with no deal
Because this lot could continue to fart around until hell freezes over and still find no common ground."
The problem that a second referendum does not address is that of a narrow margin (one way or the other).
It really surprises me how politicians - and the media too - have got this spectacularly wrong and all appear to be leading with emotion instead of pragmatic logic.
It was a narrow result.
Leavers - did not win an overwhelming majority and there is consequently never going to be a mandate for dramatic change.
Remainers - need to accept that something about our relationship with Europe has to change.
Politicians and the media have to start being more pragmatic and more honest about the result and what it actually means practically. It is stupid and dangerous for hard Brexiters to demand that the country should should embrace their version of Brexit. It is equally stupid and dangerous for extreme Remainers to keep demanding additional referendums when it is obvious that on any given day Leave or Remain could win a narrow majority.
The referendum result is simply a mandate for something to change - a bit. The logical course of action would have been to establish a ten year plan that took us out incrementally whilst insulating the country from shock.
All that has happened in the last three years has simply demonstrated toys all and to the world at large that our Politicians are just not strong enough, brave enough or pragmatic enough to make appropriate long term decisions. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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Many remainers do agree our relationship needs to change. They just believe this is better done from the inside rather than the extreme of breaking the relationship and trying to start again.
Interestingly many European eurosceptic parties are taking this approach rather than a Frexit etc. |
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By *oodmessMan
over a year ago
yumsville |
TM standing down wont solve the Brexit impasse. It'll either push a GE or a referendum where Labour will no doubt win, as I cannot see voters wanting Boris (or any other hard line Tory) as leader, especially with the prospect of Brexit. |
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By *ara JTV/TS
over a year ago
Bristol East |
"
The referendum result is simply a mandate for something to change - a bit. The logical course of action would have been to establish a ten year plan that took us out incrementally whilst insulating the country from shock.
All that has happened in the last three years has simply demonstrated toys all and to the world at large that our Politicians are just not strong enough, brave enough or pragmatic enough to make appropriate long term decisions."
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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Let's look at the reality of the situation.
The Withdrawal agreement, which has been voted down by parliament on three occasions, is the only 'deal' that the EU will agree to.
Political declarations and speculation of future relationships aside, the problem has been the Irish backstop which is part of that agreement.
Under EU law, future arrangements can not be negotiated whilst a country remains a member state - in other words, we can't discuss the future until we've left.
So here's the conundrum.
The WA is dead. Not going to happen.
The PM has tried and tried to get it through but PARLIAMENT has rejected it.
This means that we have no deal with the EU on our departure.
So, either Parliament honours the referendum and gets us out, or it revokes Article 50 - which would be political suicide for all MP's who vote for it.
So the inevitability is that we will be departing without a deal. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"Many remainers do agree our relationship needs to change. They just believe this is better done from the inside rather than the extreme of breaking the relationship and trying to start again.
Interestingly many European eurosceptic parties are taking this approach rather than a Frexit etc. "
MEP's have never really been taken seriously, for a long time now many British voters have elected UKIP MEP's who stood on a ticket of vote for me and I won't do the job you pay me for, I suspect the other EU countries have their equivalents.
This has effectively stalled the EU and made it a self fulfilling prophecy of its own failings. E.g. unelected civil servants putting through legislation that sails through unmonitored by the elected representatives as they are collecting a salary to do nothing but disrupt.
Triumph motorcycles is a UK manufacturer we should be proud of, risen from nothing in the 80's to a world class brand. BMW would have killed them off at birth if we didn't have active working MEP's scrutinizing and voting on legislation for a European market.
I would have liked to stay in, but lost and accept that loss. What I don't accept is the squandering of the 2 year preparation time trying to negotiate a 2 year period after it to do the preparation.
If our elected representatives spent their energy on preparing for the long term future of us the represented instead of trying to ensure they get reelected in 5 years, we would all be better off, and maybe we could have some respect for politicians.
End rant... |
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By *oodmessMan
over a year ago
yumsville |
"
So the inevitability is that we will be departing without a deal.
There is no mandate for that. Parliament will not allow it to happen and the EU does not want it either.
"
I am still unsure on this. It went through parliament, to the lords and passed when back in parliament. Does that mean it is legislated and could be legally upheld in courts? As it is often said the default position still stands as no deal. |
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By *ara JTV/TS
over a year ago
Bristol East |
Parliament has already shown it can seize control of the business agenda.
It is quite feasible Parliament could pass an amendment to the Act.
The other factor here is that a Brextremist in No. 10 driving for a no-deal exit will rupture the Conservative Party, leading to an exodus of the moderate MPs.
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By *oodmessMan
over a year ago
yumsville |
"Parliament has already shown it can seize control of the business agenda.
It is quite feasible Parliament could pass an amendment to the Act.
The other factor here is that a Brextremist in No. 10 driving for a no-deal exit will rupture the Conservative Party, leading to an exodus of the moderate MPs.
"
If there is no agreement either in The Commons or between the UK and the EU, then there is no deal by x date. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"Parliament has already shown it can seize control of the business agenda.
It is quite feasible Parliament could pass an amendment to the Act.
The other factor here is that a Brextremist in No. 10 driving for a no-deal exit will rupture the Conservative Party, leading to an exodus of the moderate MPs.
If there is no agreement either in The Commons or between the UK and the EU, then there is no deal by x date. "
Or we revoke. That can be done unilaterally.
However the original point is very few people have given affirmation to a person, party, or political movement which have stood on a mandate of no deal.
Leave talked about a deal. Tories talked about a deal. Labour talked about a deal. |
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By *ara JTV/TS
over a year ago
Bristol East |
"
If there is no agreement either in The Commons or between the UK and the EU, then there is no deal by x date. "
In that case, why did we not leave by default on March 29, the date in the Act?
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"
Something has to give.
But what? "
Remainers attitude to remaining, they lost they need to get over it and work to leaving in the most orderly fashion possible. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"
If there is no agreement either in The Commons or between the UK and the EU, then there is no deal by x date.
In that case, why did we not leave by default on March 29, the date in the Act?
"
.
That's currently being challenged in the high court |
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By *ara JTV/TS
over a year ago
Bristol East |
"
Something has to give.
But what?
Remainers attitude to remaining, they lost they need to get over it and work to leaving in the most orderly fashion possible."
The Remainders voted to leave in an orderly fashion, as you put it. The people who blocked it were the Brexiteers.
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"So the inevitability is that we will be departing without a deal."
It would be interesting to find out what percentage of leave voters actually voted to leave without a deal, and how many voted leave wanting their cake and to eat it.
I personally believe that the leave vote was split (not sure of the percentage) between leaving with a clean break and damn the consequences, and leave but continue trading with the EU on our own terms (which is never going to happen). |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"
Something has to give.
But what?
Remainers attitude to remaining, they lost they need to get over it and work to leaving in the most orderly fashion possible.
The Remainders voted to leave in an orderly fashion, as you put it. The people who blocked it were the Brexiteers.
"
Yes the uncomfortable truth is brexit was stopped by brexiters.  |
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By *eavenNhellCouple
over a year ago
carrbrook stalybridge |
what will happen is the political direction of the whole country thats the econamy forigne and domestic policy etc for the next two years will be directed at the behest of the person chosen by the 100k members of the Tory party who get the final say so there you have it democracy in action . |
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By *ara JTV/TS
over a year ago
Bristol East |
"So the inevitability is that we will be departing without a deal.
It would be interesting to find out what percentage of leave voters actually voted to leave without a deal, and how many voted leave wanting their cake and to eat it.
I personally believe that the leave vote was split (not sure of the percentage) between leaving with a clean break and damn the consequences, and leave but continue trading with the EU on our own terms (which is never going to happen)."
During the referendum, leaving without a deal was dismissed by the Leave campaign as "silly" and "project fear".
Both Conservative and Labour stood on manifestos in 2017 promising to exit the EU with a particular type of deal.
There is no political mandate for exiting the EU without an agreement in place.
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"It would be interesting to find out what percentage of leave voters actually voted to leave without a deal,
"
That is an easy one, 100% who voted leave, voted leave without a deal, there was no 'deal option' on the referendum. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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Parliament will never vote for no deal it's a non starter.Theyll pass the buck to to the electorate to make a decision in another referendum.Nobody wants the responsibility of crashing out into the unknown abyss. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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Not correct, even talking with a handful of friends that voted leave shows a split. Some clean break, some leave and trade with the EU on our terms, but keeping a trading link. |
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"
So the inevitability is that we will be departing without a deal.
There is no mandate for that. Parliament will not allow it to happen and the EU does not want it either.
I am still unsure on this. It went through parliament, to the lords and passed when back in parliament. Does that mean it is legislated and could be legally upheld in courts? As it is often said the default position still stands as no deal. "
the default position is an illegal position |
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By *ara JTV/TS
over a year ago
Bristol East |
"It would be interesting to find out what percentage of leave voters actually voted to leave without a deal,
That is an easy one, 100% who voted leave, voted leave without a deal, there was no 'deal option' on the referendum."
Repeat a lie often enough and eventually people begin to believe it.
You must have lived through a different period of history from me.
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"It would be interesting to find out what percentage of leave voters actually voted to leave without a deal,
That is an easy one, 100% who voted leave, voted leave without a deal, there was no 'deal option' on the referendum."
Someone should have mentioned this to vote leave. "we will negotiate the terms of a new deal before we start any process to leave"
Or arron banks.
Or Daniel Hannan.
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"
Something has to give.
But what?
Remainers attitude to remaining, they lost they need to get over it and work to leaving in the most orderly fashion possible.
The Remainders voted to leave in an orderly fashion, as you put it. The people who blocked it were the Brexiteers.
"
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That's nonsense, how did the libdems vote? Stephen Lloyd was threatened with the whip when declared he wanted to vote for Mays deal.
Some brexiteers voted against as they didn't believe it was actually leaving. |
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By *ara JTV/TS
over a year ago
Bristol East |
So you believe it is the job of opposition politicians to implement government policy?
Er, no.
The reason a party is in government is because it has a majority to get its manifesto implemented.
The manifesto said leaving the EU with an agreement.
But so many Tory MPs decided that was not what they stood for and kept blocking the exit.
That is a party without discipline.
In fact, it is two parties in one - UKIP-lite and Conservatives. The sooner they go their separate ways, the sooner the country will heal.
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By *mmabluTV/TS
over a year ago
upton wirral |
"So you believe it is the job of opposition politicians to implement government policy?
Er, no.
The reason a party is in government is because it has a majority to get its manifesto implemented.
The manifesto said leaving the EU with an agreement.
But so many Tory MPs decided that was not what they stood for and kept blocking the exit.
That is a party without discipline.
In fact, it is two parties in one - UKIP-lite and Conservatives. The sooner they go their separate ways, the sooner the country will heal.
"
NO conection to UKIP,both main parties have no discipline Fact |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"It would be interesting to find out what percentage of leave voters actually voted to leave without a deal,
That is an easy one, 100% who voted leave, voted leave without a deal, there was no 'deal option' on the referendum.
Repeat a lie often enough and eventually people begin to believe it.
You must have lived through a different period of history from me.
"
Just double checked the wording in case I missremembered it. But no there were 2 options simple vote and the winning option simply said
Leave the European union
No mention of any deal, so all who chose it did not ask for a deal. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"It would be interesting to find out what percentage of leave voters actually voted to leave without a deal,
That is an easy one, 100% who voted leave, voted leave without a deal, there was no 'deal option' on the referendum.
Repeat a lie often enough and eventually people begin to believe it.
You must have lived through a different period of history from me.
Just double checked the wording in case I missremembered it. But no there were 2 options simple vote and the winning option simply said
Leave the European union
No mention of any deal, so all who chose it did not ask for a deal."
But has been told by the leave campaign we'd negotiate a deal.
Which was then ratified when 80% of voters voted for parties who promised a deal. |
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"Let's look at the reality of the situation.
The Withdrawal agreement, which has been voted down by parliament on three occasions, is the only 'deal' that the EU will agree to.
Political declarations and speculation of future relationships aside, the problem has been the Irish backstop which is part of that agreement.
Under EU law, future arrangements can not be negotiated whilst a country remains a member state - in other words, we can't discuss the future until we've left.
So here's the conundrum.
The WA is dead. Not going to happen.
The PM has tried and tried to get it through but PARLIAMENT has rejected it.
This means that we have no deal with the EU on our departure.
So, either Parliament honours the referendum and gets us out, or it revokes Article 50 - which would be political suicide for all MP's who vote for it.
So the inevitability is that we will be departing without a deal."
I would like to disagree.
However, I cannot. The only ways that we will not leave on 31st October is either to revoke (most unlikely) or to ask for more time which will only be done if there is something substantially new that the UK can bring forward that the EU can also latch on to (also unlikely). |
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By *ara JTV/TS
over a year ago
Bristol East |
"
But has been told by the leave campaign we'd negotiate a deal.
Which was then ratified when 80% of voters voted for parties who promised a deal. "
We have moved on.
The extant mandate is the manifesto upon which MPs were elected in the 2017 General Election.
Both Labour and Conservative MPs were elected on leaving the EU with an agreement - the Conservatives promising something vague, and Labour promising a customs union.
There is no political mandate for a no-deal exit because the only party advocating it was trounced.
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"
But has been told by the leave campaign we'd negotiate a deal.
Which was then ratified when 80% of voters voted for parties who promised a deal.
We have moved on.
The extant mandate is the manifesto upon which MPs were elected in the 2017 General Election.
Both Labour and Conservative MPs were elected on leaving the EU with an agreement - the Conservatives promising something vague, and Labour promising a customs union.
There is no political mandate for a no-deal exit because the only party advocating it was trounced.
"
I think you're agreeing with me. That's the 80% I mentioned. The one which centaur used to use as the overwhelming majority mandate to leave. It's the same logic for a mandatefoe a deal.
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