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make your prediction.....the brexit vote edition
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By *abio OP Man
over a year ago
Newcastle and Gateshead |
okay.... the vote is due to be at 7pm tomorrow evening ish...
prediction time..... don't want any rationale of long winded flim flam
just a number...
start it with either, may wins by.... or May loses by.....
and .... go! |
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May wins with a landslide when the speaker uses his tie-breaking vote to back the PM delivering a 326 to 325 win.
After which she unveils a totally different deal that fucks us over even more while telling the losers to get over it as Parliament has had their vote and nothing is allowed change that.
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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Breaking News - May has eloped with Jean-Claude Juncker Monday 4th January (pm) and no one knows there whereabouts. The deal is declared null and void by the EU and UK Parliament. We now have to restart the Brexit process and negotiations. Yay |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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Well brexit is gona be bad for us foreign..by example ive work here for 20 years and i lost my job last year ive try to claim help but wasnt accepted cause i didnt had a job..fair aint it. |
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Apart from saying May will loose the vote it's hard to say by how much but I'm going for 100+.
The problem is is that quite a few BREXITERS are starting to realise
there it's likely to be 'no BREXIT' not 'no deal BREXIT' if May's deal doesn't pass.
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By *ara JTV/TS
over a year ago
Bristol East |
In 1997, there was a referendum in Scotland on the creation of a Scottish Parliament.
74 per cent of people said Yes.
The Scotland Act 1998 enacted that result.
Who tried to block it in the House of Commons?
Em, Mrs Theresa May, the newly-elected MP for Maidenhead.
Karma.
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By *andm288Couple
over a year ago
oxford |
She loses by 100+ votes I hope then go on for. No Deal Brexit & save £39 billion plough that money back into the country for businesses
Do people think that Germany & France don’t want to sell their cars & goods to us ?
That’s my personal view
Some may agree it disagree |
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By *ara JTV/TS
over a year ago
Bristol East |
If people in the UK want to keep buying from car factories in Germany, keeping German workers gainfully employed and reinforcing Germany’s economic performance, they are very welcome to carry on.
They’ll just have to dig deeper into their pockets to pay:
a) the new import duties
b) the higher purchase price as a result of devaluation of sterling
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"She loses by 100+ votes I hope then go on for. No Deal Brexit & save £39 billion plough that money back into the country for businesses
Do people think that Germany & France don’t want to sell their cars & goods to us ?
That’s my personal view
Some may agree it disagree "
39 billion will disappear pretty fast in the No Deal scenario. We may also get sued for it. |
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By *oo hotCouple
over a year ago
North West |
Defeat by 140-160 votes.
Gives a conciliatory speech and vows to return next Monday with plan B.
Speaker intervenes and makes it clear that plan B must be substantial and meaningful and orders that it will be voted on.
Over the weekend, PM gives notice of her resignation.
Labour tables a no-confidence motion on Monday in absence of a meaningful PM or a plan B to vote on. |
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"Defeat by 140-160 votes.
Gives a conciliatory speech and vows to return next Monday with plan B.
Speaker intervenes and makes it clear that plan B must be substantial and meaningful and orders that it will be voted on.
Over the weekend, PM gives notice of her resignation.
Labour tables a no-confidence motion on Monday in absence of a meaningful PM or a plan B to vote on."
Agree with you apart from I dint think she will quit |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"Check ya news file new corolla on its way ...because we so good and great in Britain...what great support for our country"
Erm..that's not exactly how you made it sound on the other post.
Looks like they may reconsider in the event of a no-deal:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46866752 |
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"May gets fucked ...by the d*unks and dictators of the eu ....
She'll be fucked by cretins like Rees-Smug and sundry other inbreds"
Like in the holy grail they all ran away..
Brave, brave, brave..  |
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By *abio OP Man
over a year ago
Newcastle and Gateshead |
right.... there were 4 amendments... but 3 have been withdrawn... (labour, snp and 1 conservative)... basically they were going to lose them anyway...
so moving the vote up.... around 7.30 ish now.....
I am changing my prediction ...
may loses by 200......
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She will lose but will not step down, once the EU see the size of the defeat that may focus minds that some lee way needs to be found to avoid no deal..
What the effect will be on sterling and the Euro will be interesting.. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"right.... there were 4 amendments... but 3 have been withdrawn... (labour, snp and 1 conservative)... basically they were going to lose them anyway...
so moving the vote up.... around 7.30 ish now.....
I am changing my prediction ...
may loses by 200......
"
Is the resident Nostradamus(Centy) not going to have a guess on this one?
He usually loves predicting things and if he is to be believed is right every time! |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"may loses by 230.... wow!!!!"
Even your prediction was a pretty conservative estimate.
Ah, you see what I did there.
Disastrous result for the PM.
Yet she is a stubborn cow and will carry on regardless |
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By *abio OP Man
over a year ago
Newcastle and Gateshead |
"may loses by 230.... wow!!!!
Even your prediction was a pretty conservative estimate.
Ah, you see what I did there.
Disastrous result for the PM.
Yet she is a stubborn cow and will carry on regardless"
i honestly thought you might get a few weasely tory mps who might abstain rather than vote against... but i think even they realised that would probably look worse |
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"the deal is dead.... i think we are going to get a 2nd referendum....."
Corbyn has grown balls and tabled a motion for no confidence in the government
No to a second referendum we had the vote
But a general election will give us chance to get rid of the traitors like my mp Mary Creagh |
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By *ostafunMan
over a year ago
near ipswich |
"the deal is dead.... i think we are going to get a 2nd referendum.....
Corbyn has grown balls and tabled a motion for no confidence in the government
No to a second referendum we had the vote
But a general election will give us chance to get rid of the traitors like my mp Mary Creagh "
I think she will win the vote of confidence the dup dont want a labour gov so no general election. |
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By *abio OP Man
over a year ago
Newcastle and Gateshead |
"the deal is dead.... i think we are going to get a 2nd referendum.....
Corbyn has grown balls and tabled a motion for no confidence in the government
No to a second referendum we had the vote
But a general election will give us chance to get rid of the traitors like my mp Mary Creagh "
corbyn had no choice but to do it... as may said that she would accept any no confidence motion from any party.. which is only normally the power of the official opposition (which the snp would have done) |
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By *ara JTV/TS
over a year ago
Bristol East |
"I am thinking that the vote will be much closer as I am thinking more of the Tory rebels might abstain than vote against."
How would an MP justify to his or her constituents, on a issue of such critical national importance, that they could not bring themselves to make a decision? |
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By *ercuryMan
over a year ago
Grantham |
"the deal is dead.... i think we are going to get a 2nd referendum.....
Corbyn has grown balls and tabled a motion for no confidence in the government
No to a second referendum we had the vote
But a general election will give us chance to get rid of the traitors like my mp Mary Creagh
corbyn had no choice but to do it... as may said that she would accept any no confidence motion from any party.. which is only normally the power of the official opposition (which the snp would have done)"
Once JC has lost the no confidence vote, he won't be able to hide behind his General Election mantra. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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So who reckons the EU might actually offer some consessions now given the size of tonights defeat.
Junker was making noises a few days ago about doing something to assist the PM in getting it through. |
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By *ostafunMan
over a year ago
near ipswich |
"the deal is dead.... i think we are going to get a 2nd referendum.....
Corbyn has grown balls and tabled a motion for no confidence in the government
No to a second referendum we had the vote
But a general election will give us chance to get rid of the traitors like my mp Mary Creagh
corbyn had no choice but to do it... as may said that she would accept any no confidence motion from any party.. which is only normally the power of the official opposition (which the snp would have done)"
Yep true what im looking forward to is where hes going to go if she wins the no confidence vote.He has been hiding for 2 years now he will finally have to make up his mind. |
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By *abio OP Man
over a year ago
Newcastle and Gateshead |
"Yep true what im looking forward to is where hes going to go if she wins the no confidence vote.He has been hiding for 2 years now he will finally have to make up his mind. "
see.... when JC loses tomorrow, official labour party policy is to follow the next best available option.... which is then the peoples vote....
JC is going to be dragged kicking and screaming... but he is going to not have much option |
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I honestly think that the no confidence vote in the government will go through. But I also think that the conservatives would win a general election. Corbyn and his shadow cabinet have made the Labour Party unelectable |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"Second referendum it is."
In which case parliament should be completely abolished as they're clearly all a total waste of space.
They are paid a lot of money by the taxpayer and if they simply pass the buck again then they're not doing the job that they've been elected to do.
I very much doubt that another referendum would draw in anywhere near the high number of voters that took part last time as many will see that democracy is dead as the result of the 2016 vote has still not been implemented.
Unless they leave 'remaining in the EU' OFF the ballot |
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The last thing we need is a Labour govt .
Second only to having May in charge of the country . Surely this is one hell of a monumental mess that she has created with her useless deal . She has no idea what the House of Commons want , what her own party want , and most importantly what we as a nation want .
So why waste any more time with her in charge ?
If she loses the vote tomorrow , does this mean the tories could stay in power with a different leader ? |
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"Second referendum it is.
In which case parliament should be completely abolished as they're clearly all a total waste of space.
They are paid a lot of money by the taxpayer and if they simply pass the buck again then they're not doing the job that they've been elected to do.
I very much doubt that another referendum would draw in anywhere near the high number of voters that took part last time as many will see that democracy is dead as the result of the 2016 vote has still not been implemented.
Unless they leave 'remaining in the EU' OFF the ballot"
Well... The pound is liking it.
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"The last thing we need is a Labour govt .
Second only to having May in charge of the country . Surely this is one hell of a monumental mess that she has created with her useless deal . She has no idea what the House of Commons want , what her own party want , and most importantly what we as a nation want .
So why waste any more time with her in charge ?
If she loses the vote tomorrow , does this mean the tories could stay in power with a different leader ? "
No
It will be a general election
But in my opinion the conservatives would win |
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By *abio OP Man
over a year ago
Newcastle and Gateshead |
"
If she loses the vote tomorrow , does this mean the tories could stay in power with a different leader ? "
nope... only if she decides to fall on her own sword...
and this is where the ERG played this so... so wrong
if they had not had the no confidence in the leader vote before xmas.... they would likely have had it now, and she is so weak they would likely have gotten their way
but because they bodged it up... she is safe for another 11 months under tory party rules!... unless she goes of her own accord |
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"
If she loses the vote tomorrow , does this mean the tories could stay in power with a different leader ?
nope... only if she decides to fall on her own sword...
and this is where the ERG played this so... so wrong
if they had not had the no confidence in the leader vote before xmas.... they would likely have had it now, and she is so weak they would likely have gotten their way
but because they bodged it up... she is safe for another 11 months under tory party rules!... unless she goes of her own accord"
It’s not a confidence vote against may.
It’s a confidence vote against the government |
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By *abio OP Man
over a year ago
Newcastle and Gateshead |
"
If she loses the vote tomorrow , does this mean the tories could stay in power with a different leader ?
nope... only if she decides to fall on her own sword...
and this is where the ERG played this so... so wrong
if they had not had the no confidence in the leader vote before xmas.... they would likely have had it now, and she is so weak they would likely have gotten their way
but because they bodged it up... she is safe for another 11 months under tory party rules!... unless she goes of her own accord
It’s not a confidence vote against may.
It’s a confidence vote against the government "
yes... and the conservatives would have gotten 1st shot at reforming a government.... if that was then under a new leader, so be it! |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
"
If she loses the vote tomorrow , does this mean the tories could stay in power with a different leader ?
nope... only if she decides to fall on her own sword...
and this is where the ERG played this so... so wrong
if they had not had the no confidence in the leader vote before xmas.... they would likely have had it now, and she is so weak they would likely have gotten their way
but because they bodged it up... she is safe for another 11 months under tory party rules!... unless she goes of her own accord
It’s not a confidence vote against may.
It’s a confidence vote against the government "
I think you've misunderstood Fabio there.
He wasn't saying that Corbyn has tabled a vote in the PM.
What he's saying is that, because the Conservatives had a confidence vote in her before Xmas, they now can't get rid of her for another 11 months.
Now consider tonights defeat - it has led to Corbyn tabling a motion for a confidence vote in the government (which he'll lose, but never mind).
The point is that if the Government wins the confidence vote, the Conservatives now can't get rid of TM because they timed it so badly.
The only way that they can get a new leader is if she decides to step down - and she's already said tomight that isn't going to be happening |
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By *ara JTV/TS
over a year ago
Bristol East |
Unless Mrs May and Mr Juncker pull a rabbit from the hat, the only conceivable outcome now is another referendum.
Why?
The Conservative MPs will not take down their own government, and the magic money tree will bring the paramilitaries into line.
Labour's only option after that is a second referendum - and there are enough backbench Tory MPs who will support it.
But will the question be:
a) Remain or Leave
b) Deal or No Deal.
The EU27 would suspend Article 50 for a). But would they do it for b)? I suspect not.
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By *ostafunMan
over a year ago
near ipswich |
"
If she loses the vote tomorrow , does this mean the tories could stay in power with a different leader ?
nope... only if she decides to fall on her own sword...
and this is where the ERG played this so... so wrong
if they had not had the no confidence in the leader vote before xmas.... they would likely have had it now, and she is so weak they would likely have gotten their way
but because they bodged it up... she is safe for another 11 months under tory party rules!... unless she goes of her own accord
It’s not a confidence vote against may.
It’s a confidence vote against the government
I think you've misunderstood Fabio there.
He wasn't saying that Corbyn has tabled a vote in the PM.
What he's saying is that, because the Conservatives had a confidence vote in her before Xmas, they now can't get rid of her for another 11 months.
Now consider tonights defeat - it has led to Corbyn tabling a motion for a confidence vote in the government (which he'll lose, but never mind).
The point is that if the Government wins the confidence vote, the Conservatives now can't get rid of TM because they timed it so badly.
The only way that they can get a new leader is if she decides to step down - and she's already said tomight that isn't going to be happening"
The upside is that she also said that she will honour the will of the people in the referendum. |
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"
If she loses the vote tomorrow , does this mean the tories could stay in power with a different leader ?
nope... only if she decides to fall on her own sword...
and this is where the ERG played this so... so wrong
if they had not had the no confidence in the leader vote before xmas.... they would likely have had it now, and she is so weak they would likely have gotten their way
but because they bodged it up... she is safe for another 11 months under tory party rules!... unless she goes of her own accord
It’s not a confidence vote against may.
It’s a confidence vote against the government
I think you've misunderstood Fabio there.
He wasn't saying that Corbyn has tabled a vote in the PM.
What he's saying is that, because the Conservatives had a confidence vote in her before Xmas, they now can't get rid of her for another 11 months.
Now consider tonights defeat - it has led to Corbyn tabling a motion for a confidence vote in the government (which he'll lose, but never mind).
The point is that if the Government wins the confidence vote, the Conservatives now can't get rid of TM because they timed it so badly.
The only way that they can get a new leader is if she decides to step down - and she's already said tomight that isn't going to be happening"
Then Fabio didn’t put it across clearly
I predict the conservatives will lose
There will be a general election
The conservatives will win again
But if May has any honour she will step down as leader |
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By *ara JTV/TS
over a year ago
Bristol East |
"
Then Fabio didn’t put it across clearly
I predict the conservatives will lose
There will be a general election
The conservatives will win again
But if May has any honour she will step down as leader "
She declared she would not lead the Conservative Party into the next election.
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"
Then Fabio didn’t put it across clearly
I predict the conservatives will lose
There will be a general election
The conservatives will win again
But if May has any honour she will step down as leader
She declared she would not lead the Conservative Party into the next election.
Problem is that she lies
"
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By *ostafunMan
over a year ago
near ipswich |
"
If she loses the vote tomorrow , does this mean the tories could stay in power with a different leader ?
nope... only if she decides to fall on her own sword...
and this is where the ERG played this so... so wrong
if they had not had the no confidence in the leader vote before xmas.... they would likely have had it now, and she is so weak they would likely have gotten their way
but because they bodged it up... she is safe for another 11 months under tory party rules!... unless she goes of her own accord
It’s not a confidence vote against may.
It’s a confidence vote against the government
I think you've misunderstood Fabio there.
He wasn't saying that Corbyn has tabled a vote in the PM.
What he's saying is that, because the Conservatives had a confidence vote in her before Xmas, they now can't get rid of her for another 11 months.
Now consider tonights defeat - it has led to Corbyn tabling a motion for a confidence vote in the government (which he'll lose, but never mind).
The point is that if the Government wins the confidence vote, the Conservatives now can't get rid of TM because they timed it so badly.
The only way that they can get a new leader is if she decides to step down - and she's already said tomight that isn't going to be happening
Then Fabio didn’t put it across clearly
I predict the conservatives will lose
There will be a general election
The conservatives will win again
But if May has any honour she will step down as leader "
Do you think any tory will vote against its own party with a chance of corbyn being PM???????? |
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"
If she loses the vote tomorrow , does this mean the tories could stay in power with a different leader ?
nope... only if she decides to fall on her own sword...
and this is where the ERG played this so... so wrong
if they had not had the no confidence in the leader vote before xmas.... they would likely have had it now, and she is so weak they would likely have gotten their way
but because they bodged it up... she is safe for another 11 months under tory party rules!... unless she goes of her own accord
It’s not a confidence vote against may.
It’s a confidence vote against the government
I think you've misunderstood Fabio there.
He wasn't saying that Corbyn has tabled a vote in the PM.
What he's saying is that, because the Conservatives had a confidence vote in her before Xmas, they now can't get rid of her for another 11 months.
Now consider tonights defeat - it has led to Corbyn tabling a motion for a confidence vote in the government (which he'll lose, but never mind).
The point is that if the Government wins the confidence vote, the Conservatives now can't get rid of TM because they timed it so badly.
The only way that they can get a new leader is if she decides to step down - and she's already said tomight that isn't going to be happening
Then Fabio didn’t put it across clearly
I predict the conservatives will lose
There will be a general election
The conservatives will win again
But if May has any honour she will step down as leader "
Disagree, its pretty clear in how it is with the current position for May in having won the internal vote in the tory Party..
Also disagree that the tories will lose, they may be a complete and utter basket case at present but the rats and the DUP will all get back on board, there's no way will any of them vote against their own party..
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"I think the chances of leaving with no deal on March 29th increased significantly tonight. 
I thought you wanted lots of little deals.
Have you changed your mind again?"
It's lots of little deals no deal deal |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"Breaking News - May has eloped with Jean-Claude Juncker Monday 4th January (pm) and no one knows there whereabouts. The deal is declared null and void by the EU and UK Parliament. We now have to restart the Brexit process and negotiations. Yay "
Ok a bit of Trumpian fake news in the above but I was right on the outcome |
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"I think the chances of leaving with no deal on March 29th increased significantly tonight.
See you never made a prediction...why?"
I was out, you see I have this thing called work during the day and a social life in the evening. Maybe you should try getting one, or both. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"I think the chances of leaving with no deal on March 29th increased significantly tonight.
See you never made a prediction...why?
I was out, you see I have this thing called work during the day and a social life in the evening. Maybe you should try getting one, or both. "
I'd believe this but you were posting about 6 last night and I've just got back from the pub actually.
I think if you compare how much you and I have posted on here over the last few weeks we'd all see who hasn't got the life! |
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