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Brexit - Costs V Benefit
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By *oo hot OP Couple
over a year ago
North West |
I have been trying to figure out what all this nonsense is actually costing us and it seems to be so hard to pull all the different kinds of data together into a meaningful number. Please chip in - If I have missed something.
First up I think that rather than project forwards what the cost might be - let's try to just pin the cost up to March 29th 2019. The Governments own figures project a hit to0 the economy on every kind of Brexit, but as we dont know yet what that will be - let's leave the future aside.
1) The Institute for Govt anticipates that raw costs associated with day to day Brexit planning will have reached £2 billion by March.
2) A bribe to the DUP of £1 billion and No deal planning costs of initially £1 billion followed by another £4 billion recently amounts to another £6 billion in total.
The CER economic model that has not been debunked shows the economy to have lost 2.5% of its GDP since the Brexit vote and from what I have read, that equates to a loss to the Treasury of £500 million a week (£2 billion per month / £24 billion per year) To round that figure down on the basis that the decline has been gradual - let's assume that the figure represents two years and not the 2 years and 9 months that will have elapsed. This equates to £48 billion.
1) + 2) + 3) = £56 billion + £39 billion divorce settlement (TOTAL close on to £100 billion)
That is 100 thousand millions of pounds - all unnecessarily spent to:
a) NOT take control of our money !! (Throw it away needlessly more like).
b) NOT take control of our borders as all goods and people are still going to be waved through anyway.
c) NOT take control of our laws because we are agreeing to align with EU standards and regulations and will be adopting all current EU laws without exception. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"I have been trying to figure out what all this nonsense is actually costing us and it seems to be so hard to pull all the different kinds of data together into a meaningful number. Please chip in - If I have missed something.
First up I think that rather than project forwards what the cost might be - let's try to just pin the cost up to March 29th 2019. The Governments own figures project a hit to0 the economy on every kind of Brexit, but as we dont know yet what that will be - let's leave the future aside.
1) The Institute for Govt anticipates that raw costs associated with day to day Brexit planning will have reached £2 billion by March.
2) A bribe to the DUP of £1 billion and No deal planning costs of initially £1 billion followed by another £4 billion recently amounts to another £6 billion in total.
The CER economic model that has not been debunked shows the economy to have lost 2.5% of its GDP since the Brexit vote and from what I have read, that equates to a loss to the Treasury of £500 million a week (£2 billion per month / £24 billion per year) To round that figure down on the basis that the decline has been gradual - let's assume that the figure represents two years and not the 2 years and 9 months that will have elapsed. This equates to £48 billion.
1) + 2) + 3) = £56 billion + £39 billion divorce settlement (TOTAL close on to £100 billion)
That is 100 thousand millions of pounds - all unnecessarily spent to:
a) NOT take control of our money !! (Throw it away needlessly more like).
b) NOT take control of our borders as all goods and people are still going to be waved through anyway.
c) NOT take control of our laws because we are agreeing to align with EU standards and regulations and will be adopting all current EU laws without exception."
This is if we go with Mays deal? |
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"I have been trying to figure out what all this nonsense is actually costing us and it seems to be so hard to pull all the different kinds of data together into a meaningful number. Please chip in - If I have missed something.
First up I think that rather than project forwards what the cost might be - let's try to just pin the cost up to March 29th 2019. The Governments own figures project a hit to0 the economy on every kind of Brexit, but as we dont know yet what that will be - let's leave the future aside.
1) The Institute for Govt anticipates that raw costs associated with day to day Brexit planning will have reached £2 billion by March.
2) A bribe to the DUP of £1 billion and No deal planning costs of initially £1 billion followed by another £4 billion recently amounts to another £6 billion in total.
The CER economic model that has not been debunked shows the economy to have lost 2.5% of its GDP since the Brexit vote and from what I have read, that equates to a loss to the Treasury of £500 million a week (£2 billion per month / £24 billion per year) To round that figure down on the basis that the decline has been gradual - let's assume that the figure represents two years and not the 2 years and 9 months that will have elapsed. This equates to £48 billion.
1) + 2) + 3) = £56 billion + £39 billion divorce settlement (TOTAL close on to £100 billion)
That is 100 thousand millions of pounds - all unnecessarily spent to:
a) NOT take control of our money !! (Throw it away needlessly more like).
b) NOT take control of our borders as all goods and people are still going to be waved through anyway.
c) NOT take control of our laws because we are agreeing to align with EU standards and regulations and will be adopting all current EU laws without exception."
But some will be able to say, 'we've left, we won and you lost'..
As yet more essential services are slashed to the bone in their communities to pay for the same as we had before..
It's beyond a parody of the most parodied cliche of some little Englanders..
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The cost of brexit to the country and the bottom 99% of the population is the loss of trillions in wealth over years.
The benefit of brexit to the people who own the country an the top 1% is gaining trillions in wealth over years.
The same zero sum applies to regulations in health, employment and virtually every other branch of government, where removal of regulations will benefit the top 1% harm the bottom 99%. |
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By *ara JTV/TS
over a year ago
Bristol East |
I suspect most who voted for it will think it worth it whatever the cost.
Until it starts to affect their income and outgoings.
Not that I expect them to face up to the connection and what they voted for. |
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"How much does anyone on here think it’s going to cost them per yr personally ?
A lot.
Probably years off my life expectancy (and that of most who are over 60) if I am being honest."
was thinking more in terms of how much in money |
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By *abioMan
over a year ago
Newcastle and Gateshead |
"How much does anyone on here think it’s going to cost them per yr personally ?"
its an interesting question..... no one is debating that food prices wont go up.... or that any product we buy won't go up (mobile phones being the classic example....)
its going to be a combination of prices going up because tariffs placed on them... and the value of the pound going down because of that lovely "devaluation" thing.. so its not worth as much in the first plce.... |
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By *abioMan
over a year ago
Newcastle and Gateshead |
"How much does anyone on here think it’s going to cost them per yr personally ?
A lot.
Probably years off my life expectancy (and that of most who are over 60) if I am being honest. was thinking more in terms of how much in money "
if you want a tangable comparison item i think i can give you an example....
Petrol.....
the price for a barrel of oil had been hovering around the 40-45 dollar mark (last time is was that low was a couple of years ago pre-referendum)...
that meant for petrol them was we were very close to playing 105p ish per litre.... same conditions now... we paying 120p ish per litre
now because there has been no fuel esculator for there the last 5 yrs ish... you "could" put down the difference to the pound in your pocket being worth less in terms against the dollar than it was before.....
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By *oodmessMan
over a year ago
yumsville |
"How much does anyone on here think it’s going to cost them per yr personally ?
A lot.
Probably years off my life expectancy (and that of most who are over 60) if I am being honest. was thinking more in terms of how much in money
if you want a tangable comparison item i think i can give you an example....
Petrol.....
the price for a barrel of oil had been hovering around the 40-45 dollar mark (last time is was that low was a couple of years ago pre-referendum)...
that meant for petrol them was we were very close to playing 105p ish per litre.... same conditions now... we paying 120p ish per litre
now because there has been no fuel esculator for there the last 5 yrs ish... you "could" put down the difference to the pound in your pocket being worth less in terms against the dollar than it was before.....
"
I'm pretty sure it's only recently declined due to surplus production if that's right. It's regularly been over $60 up to $80 throughout the year - due to restricted supplies.
How much is this mess going to cost us? Unless banks free up liquidity fast businesses will fold. Thinking if Labour get in - who knows ... how much do water, rail, electricity, gas and Banks go for these days. |
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By *abioMan
over a year ago
Newcastle and Gateshead |
"
I'm pretty sure it's only recently declined due to surplus production if that's right. It's regularly been over $60 up to $80 throughout the year - due to restricted supplies.
How much is this mess going to cost us? Unless banks free up liquidity fast businesses will fold. Thinking if Labour get in - who knows ... how much do water, rail, electricity, gas and Banks go for these days. "
just a piece of context....
i was using the example of when oil was this low back in the wither of 15/16 when oil dropped to about 40 dollars a barrel and the price of petrol got down as low as £1 per litre (doesn't seem that long ago but when to check and it was.....) thats why i used that point as the comparison which was pre-referendum....
if there is a better direct comparison i am all ears..... |
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By *oo hot OP Couple
over a year ago
North West |
"How much does anyone on here think it’s going to cost them per yr personally ?
A lot.
Probably years off my life expectancy (and that of most who are over 60) if I am being honest. was thinking more in terms of how much in money "
It is just a further addition to the deficit that we and our kids will end up paying (plus interest) ad infinitum.
The figures are so big that they barely register on our human scales of context but it is real money.
Remember that this is just the cost to get us to March 29th. Thereafter the cost to the country in loss of GDP will be according to whatever deal is negotiated plus the direct cost of the required increase in size of a number of state agencies that will be needed to replace EU Agencies.
There never was any Brexit dividend. It was a lie. |
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A few months back I referred to a an estimation of what some of the costs have been, which were about £500 million per week. It was shot at, because it wasn't an unbiased estimate - I think it's unlikely to ever get such a thing.
I've just seen a live real-time calculator, showing almost £59 billion,
from a search on the cost of brexit - won't post the link, as it's not a known news site - and I really have no idea how credible it is.
Many people are likely to suffer incomes declining, which will then compound over their lives and also reduce their pension pots: giving them a reduced pension of course. This isn't to mention any projected devaluation of pension funds either, which is likely where they are invested in UK companies.  |
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By *oodmessMan
over a year ago
yumsville |
"
I'm pretty sure it's only recently declined due to surplus production if that's right. It's regularly been over $60 up to $80 throughout the year - due to restricted supplies.
How much is this mess going to cost us? Unless banks free up liquidity fast businesses will fold. Thinking if Labour get in - who knows ... how much do water, rail, electricity, gas and Banks go for these days.
just a piece of context....
i was using the example of when oil was this low back in the wither of 15/16 when oil dropped to about 40 dollars a barrel and the price of petrol got down as low as £1 per litre (doesn't seem that long ago but when to check and it was.....) thats why i used that point as the comparison which was pre-referendum....
if there is a better direct comparison i am all ears....."
I don't eat McDonalds but I was thinking that is used a standard in world indexing..? |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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It’s going to be very difficult for anyone to put a number on it as you will never know where you’d be without brexit.
Even if you list your job, and we’re gold it was directly because of an element of brexit, others will tell you it’s just the company taking advantage.
And even if there was the need to get parliament to approve a new tax in a nonvoted no deal, some will say it was because of the global climate.
I suspect many of the costs (if they arise) will be from government inertia. Not reducing a tax they otherise would have. Not increasing personal allowances. People will see them being in the same place as before. Without knowing if they would have been better off. |
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