FabSwingers.com > Forums > Politics > No deal for UK expats
No deal for UK expats
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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago
|
Quick question. I was told by a colleague that a no deal may make our contracts/residency invalid if there is a no deal in march.
Not sure if it's true or not but were seeking help from HR on this. Will let you know if there are issues or no worries.
Do you think a no deal is good for expats abroad? Will the EU help? Will the UK help?
Sadly I'm starting to fear the worse. I wasn't worried before. But hopefully legal will clarify things from an employment point of view. |
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I think it is a fair question to ask.
How do I see it?
It could go either way at the moment but I think a deal will be done.
Barnier's intransigence is starting to set alarm bells ringing in European capitals and I think that at some point he will be brought to heel by some of the more level headed heads of state.
While Merkel, Macron, and a few others would still like to punish Britain, deep down they know that a "no deal" could be disastrous for their own businesses. Ultimately they won't cut their nose off to spite their face.
Also Britain is starting to get some sympathy from European leaders. Both Italy and Austria are urging the EU to get a deal done and others will surely follow.
However, let's just say for a moment that it does end up as a "no deal".
On the expat issue all Britain has to do is threaten (and be prepared to follow though with) like for like. That will certainly focus a few minds in eastern Europe (among other places).
Then there is Spain which has by far the biggest concentration of British expats in Europe. While some do work there, the vast majority are retired and living on pension money from the UK. Most have bought (and many are still buying) property there and the housing market has only just recovered from the 2008 crash.
The double whammy of losing the spending power of around a quarter of a million Brits and them dumping their property on to an already fragile market, allied to the loss of tourism revenue from the family that go to visit them (trust me that runs into hundreds of thousands every year) would be a catastrophe for the Spanish economy. And that is without counting any knock on effect in the general tourism market caused by the bad feeling it would generate.
Barnier may like to think he is calling the shots at the moment but before he is allowed to go to the wire Berlin Paris Madrid Et al will steal his ammo. |
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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago
|
"I think it is a fair question to ask.
How do I see it?
It could go either way at the moment but I think a deal will be done.
Barnier's intransigence is starting to set alarm bells ringing in European capitals and I think that at some point he will be brought to heel by some of the more level headed heads of state.
While Merkel, Macron, and a few others would still like to punish Britain, deep down they know that a "no deal" could be disastrous for their own businesses. Ultimately they won't cut their nose off to spite their face.
Also Britain is starting to get some sympathy from European leaders. Both Italy and Austria are urging the EU to get a deal done and others will surely follow.
However, let's just say for a moment that it does end up as a "no deal".
On the expat issue all Britain has to do is threaten (and be prepared to follow though with) like for like. That will certainly focus a few minds in eastern Europe (among other places).
Then there is Spain which has by far the biggest concentration of British expats in Europe. While some do work there, the vast majority are retired and living on pension money from the UK. Most have bought (and many are still buying) property there and the housing market has only just recovered from the 2008 crash.
The double whammy of losing the spending power of around a quarter of a million Brits and them dumping their property on to an already fragile market, allied to the loss of tourism revenue from the family that go to visit them (trust me that runs into hundreds of thousands every year) would be a catastrophe for the Spanish economy. And that is without counting any knock on effect in the general tourism market caused by the bad feeling it would generate.
Barnier may like to think he is calling the shots at the moment but before he is allowed to go to the wire Berlin Paris Madrid Et al will steal his ammo. "
Very true. There could be a deal. We could use leverage etc. I do have a back up plan. I work in both the UK and Amsterdam so I can switch my contract so at least I can work without trouble. I will update what our legal department says. Maybe there is already a backup plan. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
"I think it is a fair question to ask.
How do I see it?
It could go either way at the moment but I think a deal will be done.
Barnier's intransigence is starting to set alarm bells ringing in European capitals and I think that at some point he will be brought to heel by some of the more level headed heads of state.
While Merkel, Macron, and a few others would still like to punish Britain, deep down they know that a "no deal" could be disastrous for their own businesses. Ultimately they won't cut their nose off to spite their face.
Also Britain is starting to get some sympathy from European leaders. Both Italy and Austria are urging the EU to get a deal done and others will surely follow.
However, let's just say for a moment that it does end up as a "no deal".
On the expat issue all Britain has to do is threaten (and be prepared to follow though with) like for like. That will certainly focus a few minds in eastern Europe (among other places).
Then there is Spain which has by far the biggest concentration of British expats in Europe. While some do work there, the vast majority are retired and living on pension money from the UK. Most have bought (and many are still buying) property there and the housing market has only just recovered from the 2008 crash.
The double whammy of losing the spending power of around a quarter of a million Brits and them dumping their property on to an already fragile market, allied to the loss of tourism revenue from the family that go to visit them (trust me that runs into hundreds of thousands every year) would be a catastrophe for the Spanish economy. And that is without counting any knock on effect in the general tourism market caused by the bad feeling it would generate.
Barnier may like to think he is calling the shots at the moment but before he is allowed to go to the wire Berlin Paris Madrid Et al will steal his ammo.
Very true. There could be a deal. We could use leverage etc. I do have a back up plan. I work in both the UK and Amsterdam so I can switch my contract so at least I can work without trouble. I will update what our legal department says. Maybe there is already a backup plan."
If you register with the UK Embassy in your country of residence you will get detailed information from the government - all the information direct. They are detailed, factual and very long! There are detailed reports on each country, however, the information is based on now and on what has been agreed so far. But in typical political fashion "nothing has been agreed until everything is agreed".
Brinkmanship is an interesting thought. It's easy to say things "we buy more off them..." well yes we do but we buy less than the other 27. Germany is exposed by the just under 10% of their GDP. That's worst senario - we will trade under WTO rules and the "elites " will continue to buy their German goods.
As for tit for tat that has been suggested - EU citizens in the UK predominantly are WORKING. The Brittish migrants in the EU the majority are RETIRED.They don't pay income tax in the host country, they use the medical services and infrastructure all for nothing. Yes they get their health cover paid by the UK government but that's a good deal for the UK. These retirees coming back would swamp the NHS. Yes they pay "rates" on their houses, which are significantly cheaper than the UK in general. They also spend money in the shops and restaurants - but so do the 3m in the UK. Yes there are some of us working and paying tax but that's a minority!
As 3rd country migrants the EU have criteria for people wishing to settle. It varies from country to country but like the freedom of movement regulations:
1. Minimum income - If the £ tanks some pensioners will be in trouble.
2. Medical cover
3. Security risk/criminal record.
These are the main ones. To conclude it's not going to be as easy as it used to be. |
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"Its a non issue for those who voted out.They voted to reduce migration .  "
Yep we get to take back control of all those UK pensioners and kick out all those young healthy (income tax paying) European NHS and construction workers. Tommy Robinson, Nige and the rest will bath in their achievement of taking back control of our borders and kicking out those johnny foreigners! And don't worry we will find replacements for those EU job stealers in the Caribbean, Africa and Indian subcontinent.
I wonder if those openly racist and thinly veiled racists thought their anti European campaign through enough to realise that the result will be more black and brown people in Britain not less.
Or have I totally misunderstood the motivation for many in the leave camp?  |
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By *asyukMan
over a year ago
West London |
"I think it is a fair question to ask.
How do I see it?
It could go either way at the moment but I think a deal will be done.
Barnier's intransigence is starting to set alarm bells ringing in European capitals and I think that at some point he will be brought to heel by some of the more level headed heads of state.
While Merkel, Macron, and a few others would still like to punish Britain, deep down they know that a "no deal" could be disastrous for their own businesses. Ultimately they won't cut their nose off to spite their face.
Also Britain is starting to get some sympathy from European leaders. Both Italy and Austria are urging the EU to get a deal done and others will surely follow.
However, let's just say for a moment that it does end up as a "no deal".
On the expat issue all Britain has to do is threaten (and be prepared to follow though with) like for like. That will certainly focus a few minds in eastern Europe (among other places).
Then there is Spain which has by far the biggest concentration of British expats in Europe. While some do work there, the vast majority are retired and living on pension money from the UK. Most have bought (and many are still buying) property there and the housing market has only just recovered from the 2008 crash.
The double whammy of losing the spending power of around a quarter of a million Brits and them dumping their property on to an already fragile market, allied to the loss of tourism revenue from the family that go to visit them (trust me that runs into hundreds of thousands every year) would be a catastrophe for the Spanish economy. And that is without counting any knock on effect in the general tourism market caused by the bad feeling it would generate.
Barnier may like to think he is calling the shots at the moment but before he is allowed to go to the wire Berlin Paris Madrid Et al will steal his ammo. "
You do understand that Bernier is not "calling the shots" nor claims to be.
It is not his negotiating position. It is the negotiating position of the 27 remaining states which they could change if they wished to.
Of the EU can significantly reduce sales to the UK they will each have 26 other countries plus 50+ trade partners and Japan and Canada to trade with. We will not.
We have actually managed to unite them and quite frankly Brexit isn't their biggest concern for them.
If they will not cut their noses off to spite their face then why would we? Is that not the sum total of our negotiating position? That we have to be serious about "no deal". You also advocate threatening and following through with EU nationals rights although the vast majority in the UK are working and paying tax whilst that is not true of our citizens.
The value of tourism for the UK from the rest of the EU is rising whilst the converse is true of the EU. That's simply from the weakness of our currency.
Negotiate hard by all means, but do so with a realistic understanding of your position. |
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"I think it is a fair question to ask.
How do I see it?
It could go either way at the moment but I think a deal will be done.
Barnier's intransigence is starting to set alarm bells ringing in European capitals and I think that at some point he will be brought to heel by some of the more level headed heads of state.
While Merkel, Macron, and a few others would still like to punish Britain, deep down they know that a "no deal" could be disastrous for their own businesses. Ultimately they won't cut their nose off to spite their face.
Also Britain is starting to get some sympathy from European leaders. Both Italy and Austria are urging the EU to get a deal done and others will surely follow.
However, let's just say for a moment that it does end up as a "no deal".
On the expat issue all Britain has to do is threaten (and be prepared to follow though with) like for like. That will certainly focus a few minds in eastern Europe (among other places).
Then there is Spain which has by far the biggest concentration of British expats in Europe. While some do work there, the vast majority are retired and living on pension money from the UK. Most have bought (and many are still buying) property there and the housing market has only just recovered from the 2008 crash.
The double whammy of losing the spending power of around a quarter of a million Brits and them dumping their property on to an already fragile market, allied to the loss of tourism revenue from the family that go to visit them (trust me that runs into hundreds of thousands every year) would be a catastrophe for the Spanish economy. And that is without counting any knock on effect in the general tourism market caused by the bad feeling it would generate.
Barnier may like to think he is calling the shots at the moment but before he is allowed to go to the wire Berlin Paris Madrid Et al will steal his ammo.
Very true. There could be a deal. We could use leverage etc. I do have a back up plan. I work in both the UK and Amsterdam so I can switch my contract so at least I can work without trouble. I will update what our legal department says. Maybe there is already a backup plan."
When you say "switch your contract", I doubt that you have a UK and a Dutch employment contract. I assume that you have a UK employment contract, and that the UK contract obliges you to work in Holland for a certain proportion of your time, and you work there under your UK contract? |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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Surely if they've left the UK they are no longer patriots .So why should we care about those who prefer to live elsewhere .
Let's focus on those here rather than those who chose to leave us and live in foreign lands .If they are do concerned about what happens here they are welcome to return and enjoy this countries benefits |
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"Surely if they've left the UK they are no longer patriots .So why should we care about those who prefer to live elsewhere .
Let's focus on those here rather than those who chose to leave us and live in foreign lands .If they are do concerned about what happens here they are welcome to return and enjoy this countries benefits "
Re-read the original post as clarified. That isn't his point at all. He works in the UK and in Holland. He wants to know how the Holland part will be affected once we leave the EU. That is a very fair question. Your reply is pointless. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
"Surely if they've left the UK they are no longer patriots .So why should we care about those who prefer to live elsewhere .
Let's focus on those here rather than those who chose to leave us and live in foreign lands .If they are do concerned about what happens here they are welcome to return and enjoy this countries benefits
Re-read the original post as clarified. That isn't his point at all. He works in the UK and in Holland. He wants to know how the Holland part will be affected once we leave the EU. That is a very fair question. Your reply is pointless."
Sorry dude you are wrong.  |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"How am I wrong? Look at what the OP said, and what he said after my request for clarification."
The opinions and circumstances of expats are irrelevant they are no longer patriots.Theyve left.If I feel to point this out it's also irrelevant that you choose to become the thread moderator and say my input isn't required Andy.I hope you get me now bro.. and you unwind your neck |
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The point that you are still missing, in spite of the fact that I spelled it out for you, is that some people, like the OP work in the UK AND in the EU. He wanted to know he will be affected post Brexit.
It is still a fair question and still one that you have not answered. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"The point that you are still missing, in spite of the fact that I spelled it out for you, is that some people, like the OP work in the UK AND in the EU. He wanted to know he will be affected post Brexit.
It is still a fair question and still one that you have not answered."
I said ,because they have left I can't find a fuck to give .Is the English Language a problem for you fella.We are leaving Andy what happens to those who don't live here is low on the totem pole of things I can find a fuck about concerning Brexit.
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"The point that you are still missing, in spite of the fact that I spelled it out for you, is that some people, like the OP work in the UK AND in the EU. He wanted to know he will be affected post Brexit.
It is still a fair question and still one that you have not answered.
I said ,because they have left I can't find a fuck to give .Is the English Language a problem for you fella.We are leaving Andy what happens to those who don't live here is low on the totem pole of things I can find a fuck about concerning Brexit.
"
And I keep telling you, that the OP is about people who haven't left. And you keep ignoring it, because you want to trot out your trite agenda:
"If you're an ex-pat, then we don't care about you" |
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"I think it is a fair question to ask.
How do I see it?
It could go either way at the moment but I think a deal will be done.
Barnier's intransigence is starting to set alarm bells ringing in European capitals and I think that at some point he will be brought to heel by some of the more level headed heads of state.
While Merkel, Macron, and a few others would still like to punish Britain, deep down they know that a "no deal" could be disastrous for their own businesses. Ultimately they won't cut their nose off to spite their face.
Also Britain is starting to get some sympathy from European leaders. Both Italy and Austria are urging the EU to get a deal done and others will surely follow.
However, let's just say for a moment that it does end up as a "no deal".
On the expat issue all Britain has to do is threaten (and be prepared to follow though with) like for like. That will certainly focus a few minds in eastern Europe (among other places).
Then there is Spain which has by far the biggest concentration of British expats in Europe. While some do work there, the vast majority are retired and living on pension money from the UK. Most have bought (and many are still buying) property there and the housing market has only just recovered from the 2008 crash.
The double whammy of losing the spending power of around a quarter of a million Brits and them dumping their property on to an already fragile market, allied to the loss of tourism revenue from the family that go to visit them (trust me that runs into hundreds of thousands every year) would be a catastrophe for the Spanish economy. And that is without counting any knock on effect in the general tourism market caused by the bad feeling it would generate.
Barnier may like to think he is calling the shots at the moment but before he is allowed to go to the wire Berlin Paris Madrid Et al will steal his ammo.
You do understand that Bernier is not "calling the shots" nor claims to be.
It is not his negotiating position. It is the negotiating position of the 27 remaining states which they could change if they wished to.
Of the EU can significantly reduce sales to the UK they will each have 26 other countries plus 50+ trade partners and Japan and Canada to trade with. We will not.
We have actually managed to unite them and quite frankly Brexit isn't their biggest concern for them.
If they will not cut their noses off to spite their face then why would we? Is that not the sum total of our negotiating position? That we have to be serious about "no deal". You also advocate threatening and following through with EU nationals rights although the vast majority in the UK are working and paying tax whilst that is not true of our citizens.
The value of tourism for the UK from the rest of the EU is rising whilst the converse is true of the EU. That's simply from the weakness of our currency.
Negotiate hard by all means, but do so with a realistic understanding of your position."
In other words Surrender. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
"The point that you are still missing, in spite of the fact that I spelled it out for you, is that some people, like the OP work in the UK AND in the EU. He wanted to know he will be affected post Brexit.
It is still a fair question and still one that you have not answered.
I said ,because they have left I can't find a fuck to give .Is the English Language a problem for you fella.We are leaving Andy what happens to those who don't live here is low on the totem pole of things I can find a fuck about concerning Brexit.
And I keep telling you, that the OP is about people who haven't left. And you keep ignoring it, because you want to trot out your trite agenda:
"If you're an ex-pat, then we don't care about you""
My opinion regarding ex pats isn't agenda driven it's common sense something you have yet to show in this forum.Britains who live here come first end of .
Maybe you have family who are ex pats and this is why you are so upset and getting all triggered.I have no time for snowflakes especially if you left Blighty for foreign lands.Feel free to have the last word Andy if it gives you a sense of superiority . |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
"Its a non issue for those who voted out.They voted to reduce migration .
Yep we get to take back control of all those UK pensioners and kick out all those young healthy (income tax paying) European NHS and construction workers. Tommy Robinson, Nige and the rest will bath in their achievement of taking back control of our borders and kicking out those johnny foreigners! And don't worry we will find replacements for those EU job stealers in the Caribbean, Africa and Indian subcontinent.
I wonder if those openly racist and thinly veiled racists thought their anti European campaign through enough to realise that the result will be more black and brown people in Britain not less.
Or have I totally misunderstood the motivation for many in the leave camp? "
Coming from a Leave voter this must be true! |
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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago
|
"It does, because my intelligence, and command of language demonstrates it.
How do you like your hubris in the morning with a slice of narcissism .? "
I'm getting so confused. Haha. Lee is defending me and Bob isn't (even if may be trolling).
I have a Dutch contract but living in both countries. I work in nl for 80% of my time then go see my daughter in the uk. I am switching it to 60% nl /40% uk. Then to 80% uk/20% nl here. So I am actually migrating back.
But residency is define by minimum of 50%. So if my rights change in the Netherlands I can live in the UK one extra day a week and get a UK contract. The company is based in both.
But there is a double tax agreement. So it complicates matters. |
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Assuming that there is no deal or that such matters are not dealt with as part of a deal, then you would have to apply for a Dutch residency permit, in the same way if you were an Australian working in Holland. You may also need to be sponsored by your employer.
You will be registered in Holland already, given your length of stay, and I assume that your employer will sponsor you, so there will be no problem; or
You will base yourself in the UK and obtain an UK employment contract and then travel to Holland on business.
Double taxation agreements are in place across the world, so that in my example the Australian will not pay tax on earnings from Holland in both Holland in Australia.
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
That does sound complicated .I would plan for a no deal at present and if TM survives to xmas then we aren't really leaving just changing the colour of our passports and you'll be fine.Your company should or will sort it one way or other.
Welcome back to the uk by the way ! |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
"I think it is a fair question to ask.
How do I see it?
It could go either way at the moment but I think a deal will be done.
Barnier's intransigence is starting to set alarm bells ringing in European capitals and I think that at some point he will be brought to heel by some of the more level headed heads of state.
While Merkel, Macron, and a few others would still like to punish Britain, deep down they know that a "no deal" could be disastrous for their own businesses. Ultimately they won't cut their nose off to spite their face.
Also Britain is starting to get some sympathy from European leaders. Both Italy and Austria are urging the EU to get a deal done and others will surely follow.
However, let's just say for a moment that it does end up as a "no deal".
On the expat issue all Britain has to do is threaten (and be prepared to follow though with) like for like. That will certainly focus a few minds in eastern Europe (among other places).
Then there is Spain which has by far the biggest concentration of British expats in Europe. While some do work there, the vast majority are retired and living on pension money from the UK. Most have bought (and many are still buying) property there and the housing market has only just recovered from the 2008 crash.
The double whammy of losing the spending power of around a quarter of a million Brits and them dumping their property on to an already fragile market, allied to the loss of tourism revenue from the family that go to visit them (trust me that runs into hundreds of thousands every year) would be a catastrophe for the Spanish economy. And that is without counting any knock on effect in the general tourism market caused by the bad feeling it would generate.
Barnier may like to think he is calling the shots at the moment but before he is allowed to go to the wire Berlin Paris Madrid Et al will steal his ammo.
You do understand that Bernier is not "calling the shots" nor claims to be.
It is not his negotiating position. It is the negotiating position of the 27 remaining states which they could change if they wished to.
Of the EU can significantly reduce sales to the UK they will each have 26 other countries plus 50+ trade partners and Japan and Canada to trade with. We will not.
We have actually managed to unite them and quite frankly Brexit isn't their biggest concern for them.
If they will not cut their noses off to spite their face then why would we? Is that not the sum total of our negotiating position? That we have to be serious about "no deal". You also advocate threatening and following through with EU nationals rights although the vast majority in the UK are working and paying tax whilst that is not true of our citizens.
The value of tourism for the UK from the rest of the EU is rising whilst the converse is true of the EU. That's simply from the weakness of our currency.
Negotiate hard by all means, but do so with a realistic understanding of your position.
In other words Surrender."
No they just should have read article 50 before making promises they can't keep - yes they may leave but at what cost? It was written by a Brit and was written to put off anyone ever contemplating leaving! So I ask how many read A50? Those that did would realise what is happening now was always going to happen! |
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And the nationality of the person who wrote it means what?
And how would reading Art. 50 help anyone make any decisions?
This is Art 50:
1. Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.
2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.
3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.
4. For the purposes of paragraphs 2 and 3, the member of the European Council or of the Council representing the withdrawing Member State shall not participate in the discussions of the European Council or Council or in decisions concerning it.
A qualified majority shall be defined in accordance with Article 238(3)(b) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
5. If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49.
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
"And the nationality of the person who wrote it means what?
And how would reading Art. 50 help anyone make any decisions?
This is Art 50:
1. Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.
2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.
3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.
4. For the purposes of paragraphs 2 and 3, the member of the European Council or of the Council representing the withdrawing Member State shall not participate in the discussions of the European Council or Council or in decisions concerning it.
A qualified majority shall be defined in accordance with Article 238(3)(b) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
5. If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49.
"
It's not the EU being vindictive it was written by a Brit - that's what it means!
So when did you read A50 - 10 mins ago?
A50 only relates to the legal entity of leaving. It also makes provision for what a "future relationship" to be discussed - no where does it say trade deal! Your just a cake and eat it guy. It's not going to work. You need to read a book called "adults in the room" and then you will understand why we are where we are! Finally if your not happy with that let me simplify it for you.1 against 27 is never going to win because 1 is the weakest link you should be able to grasp that. |
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By *asyukMan
over a year ago
West London |
"I think it is a fair question to ask.
How do I see it?
It could go either way at the moment but I think a deal will be done.
Barnier's intransigence is starting to set alarm bells ringing in European capitals and I think that at some point he will be brought to heel by some of the more level headed heads of state.
While Merkel, Macron, and a few others would still like to punish Britain, deep down they know that a "no deal" could be disastrous for their own businesses. Ultimately they won't cut their nose off to spite their face.
Also Britain is starting to get some sympathy from European leaders. Both Italy and Austria are urging the EU to get a deal done and others will surely follow.
However, let's just say for a moment that it does end up as a "no deal".
On the expat issue all Britain has to do is threaten (and be prepared to follow though with) like for like. That will certainly focus a few minds in eastern Europe (among other places).
Then there is Spain which has by far the biggest concentration of British expats in Europe. While some do work there, the vast majority are retired and living on pension money from the UK. Most have bought (and many are still buying) property there and the housing market has only just recovered from the 2008 crash.
The double whammy of losing the spending power of around a quarter of a million Brits and them dumping their property on to an already fragile market, allied to the loss of tourism revenue from the family that go to visit them (trust me that runs into hundreds of thousands every year) would be a catastrophe for the Spanish economy. And that is without counting any knock on effect in the general tourism market caused by the bad feeling it would generate.
Barnier may like to think he is calling the shots at the moment but before he is allowed to go to the wire Berlin Paris Madrid Et al will steal his ammo.
You do understand that Bernier is not "calling the shots" nor claims to be.
It is not his negotiating position. It is the negotiating position of the 27 remaining states which they could change if they wished to.
Of the EU can significantly reduce sales to the UK they will each have 26 other countries plus 50+ trade partners and Japan and Canada to trade with. We will not.
We have actually managed to unite them and quite frankly Brexit isn't their biggest concern for them.
If they will not cut their noses off to spite their face then why would we? Is that not the sum total of our negotiating position? That we have to be serious about "no deal". You also advocate threatening and following through with EU nationals rights although the vast majority in the UK are working and paying tax whilst that is not true of our citizens.
The value of tourism for the UK from the rest of the EU is rising whilst the converse is true of the EU. That's simply from the weakness of our currency.
Negotiate hard by all means, but do so with a realistic understanding of your position.
In other words Surrender."
It's good that you responded to the points made.
Excellent logical conclusions that you've drawn.
Alternatively, you are saying yes this is our situation but our only option is to negotiate based on threats that will hurt us more than the other 27.
You tell me. Look silly and remain reasonably stable with an opportunity to influence the world in our favour or look "strong" and self-harm? |
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No deal is bad for everyone, including expats. The proposed transition period was dependent on having a deal, with reciprocal citizens rights in all countries.
No deal means an immediate change, lack of rights as before and no country really being ready. Expats were not respected or considered. It's disgusting. |
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"To whom are you referring? UK Nationals working in the EU?
You're right I wasn't clear. British nationals working in the EU."
You mean British immigrants. |
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