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Even the Daily Express
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By *G Lana OP TV/TS
over a year ago
Gosport |
Even the Daily Express is now running articles on how Britian will be worse off under all Brexit scenarios.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/891217/Brexit-news-latest-Rand-corporation-Brexit-update-UK-economy-gdp-EU-European-Union-video |
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By *ercuryMan
over a year ago
Grantham |
"Even the Daily Express is now running articles on how Britian will be worse off under all Brexit scenarios.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/891217/Brexit-news-latest-Rand-corporation-Brexit-update-UK-economy-gdp-EU-European-Union-video"
That report is a few days old.
I think that there is a growing realisation that Brexit is not going to be achievable, certainly not in the way it was portrayed pre Referendum. |
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By *G Lana OP TV/TS
over a year ago
Gosport |
"Even the Daily Express is now running articles on how Britian will be worse off under all Brexit scenarios.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/891217/Brexit-news-latest-Rand-corporation-Brexit-update-UK-economy-gdp-EU-European-Union-video
That report is a few days old.
I think that there is a growing realisation that Brexit is not going to be achievable, certainly not in the way it was portrayed pre Referendum."
To be clear on this I don't subscribe or follow the Daily Express so only found out about this through other news feeds but the date showing on the online article is 07:30, Wed, Dec 13, 2017. What I find interesting is not the Rand Corporation's assessment but that the Daily Express reported it at all and then didn't spend the whole article trying to argue the Rand don't know what their talking about, their out to get us, etc.
For those, like me, who don't recognise the Rand Corporation they are a US based non profit organisation who are generally considered to be centerist. |
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By *LCCCouple
over a year ago
Cambridge |
"Even the Daily Express is now running articles on how Britian will be worse off under all Brexit scenarios.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/891217/Brexit-news-latest-Rand-corporation-Brexit-update-UK-economy-gdp-EU-European-Union-video
That report is a few days old.
I think that there is a growing realisation that Brexit is not going to be achievable, certainly not in the way it was portrayed pre Referendum.
To be clear on this I don't subscribe or follow the Daily Express so only found out about this through other news feeds but the date showing on the online article is 07:30, Wed, Dec 13, 2017. What I find interesting is not the Rand Corporation's assessment but that the Daily Express reported it at all and then didn't spend the whole article trying to argue the Rand don't know what their talking about, their out to get us, etc.
For those, like me, who don't recognise the Rand Corporation they are a US based non profit organisation who are generally considered to be centerist."
Of course, it is going to cost this country billions. Even David Davis's SpAd says it will cost the UK more than £70bn a year. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"Even the Daily Express is now running articles on how Britian will be worse off under all Brexit scenarios.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/891217/Brexit-news-latest-Rand-corporation-Brexit-update-UK-economy-gdp-EU-European-Union-video
That report is a few days old.
I think that there is a growing realisation that Brexit is not going to be achievable, certainly not in the way it was portrayed pre Referendum.
To be clear on this I don't subscribe or follow the Daily Express so only found out about this through other news feeds but the date showing on the online article is 07:30, Wed, Dec 13, 2017. What I find interesting is not the Rand Corporation's assessment but that the Daily Express reported it at all and then didn't spend the whole article trying to argue the Rand don't know what their talking about, their out to get us, etc.
For those, like me, who don't recognise the Rand Corporation they are a US based non profit organisation who are generally considered to be centerist."
.
Who are funded in the main by the US government!.
Is that called foreign meddling in other countries politics? |
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By *andS66Couple
over a year ago
Derby |
It says the Brexit bill will be up to €75 billion (fact check: it’s between £35-39 billion). The report looks at many types of supposed models for Brexit, but doesn’t assess the outcome of the UK signing trade deals with multiple countries, one of the main reasons for leaving: “We did not explore the… model in which the UK would complete FTAs with numerous countries”.
Rand have used the Treasury model that wrongly predicted a calamitous aftermath of a vote to leave to determine their figures.
Rand’s report also said that if the UK agrees FTAs with both the EU and the US we would see double the amount of GDP growth than any of the 'soft Brexit' scenarios. |
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"It says the Brexit bill will be up to €75 billion (fact check: it’s between £35-39 billion). The report looks at many types of supposed models for Brexit, but doesn’t assess the outcome of the UK signing trade deals with multiple countries, one of the main reasons for leaving: “We did not explore the… model in which the UK would complete FTAs with numerous countries”.
Rand have used the Treasury model that wrongly predicted a calamitous aftermath of a vote to leave to determine their figures.
Rand’s report also said that if the UK agrees FTAs with both the EU and the US we would see double the amount of GDP growth than any of the 'soft Brexit' scenarios. "
Fact check: the figure of £35 - 39bn for the Brexit bill is one produced by the Tories and is an estimate. As part of the negotiations the Tories asked the EU not to release an estimate because it would be a much higher figure and would un do their spin.
For example the not inconsequential sum of €11.5bn for contingent liabilities has been completely left off the Tory estimate. And yes thats eleven point five billion, no typos. Not to mention other little accounting tricks that theyve used to bring down the announced figure to placate Brexiters including: a far higher rate of cancellations on EU projects than expected and a discount rate on pensions that neither the EU nor the UK have ever used but that handily brought down the figure for the estimate.
Also the UK cant do a good FTA with both the US and the EU because the US insists on lower standards and the EU insists on higher standards. If you want a deal with both you'll have to go down the route of a Canada style deal with the EU which would be devastating to the economy. |
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By *asyukMan
over a year ago
West London |
"It says the Brexit bill will be up to €75 billion (fact check: it’s between £35-39 billion). The report looks at many types of supposed models for Brexit, but doesn’t assess the outcome of the UK signing trade deals with multiple countries, one of the main reasons for leaving: “We did not explore the… model in which the UK would complete FTAs with numerous countries”.
Rand have used the Treasury model that wrongly predicted a calamitous aftermath of a vote to leave to determine their figures.
Rand’s report also said that if the UK agrees FTAs with both the EU and the US we would see double the amount of GDP growth than any of the 'soft Brexit' scenarios. "
I don't follow you.
If the UK could simultaneously do a deal with the US and the EU them the US could do a deal with the EU.
When we sign a trade deal with anyone then we are constrained by those terms when we go and negotiate with someone else.
That is clear right? |
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By *andS66Couple
over a year ago
Derby |
"It says the Brexit bill will be up to €75 billion (fact check: it’s between £35-39 billion). The report looks at many types of supposed models for Brexit, but doesn’t assess the outcome of the UK signing trade deals with multiple countries, one of the main reasons for leaving: “We did not explore the… model in which the UK would complete FTAs with numerous countries”.
Rand have used the Treasury model that wrongly predicted a calamitous aftermath of a vote to leave to determine their figures.
Rand’s report also said that if the UK agrees FTAs with both the EU and the US we would see double the amount of GDP growth than any of the 'soft Brexit' scenarios.
I don't follow you.
If the UK could simultaneously do a deal with the US and the EU them the US could do a deal with the EU.
When we sign a trade deal with anyone then we are constrained by those terms when we go and negotiate with someone else.
That is clear right?"
So what you're saying us we can only have one trade deal - ever?
Do countries that have trade deals with the EU not have trade deals with anyone else then?
Is that really how you think it works? |
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"It says the Brexit bill will be up to €75 billion (fact check: it’s between £35-39 billion). The report looks at many types of supposed models for Brexit, but doesn’t assess the outcome of the UK signing trade deals with multiple countries, one of the main reasons for leaving: “We did not explore the… model in which the UK would complete FTAs with numerous countries”.
Rand have used the Treasury model that wrongly predicted a calamitous aftermath of a vote to leave to determine their figures.
Rand’s report also said that if the UK agrees FTAs with both the EU and the US we would see double the amount of GDP growth than any of the 'soft Brexit' scenarios.
I don't follow you.
If the UK could simultaneously do a deal with the US and the EU them the US could do a deal with the EU.
When we sign a trade deal with anyone then we are constrained by those terms when we go and negotiate with someone else.
That is clear right?
So what you're saying us we can only have one trade deal - ever?
Do countries that have trade deals with the EU not have trade deals with anyone else then?
Is that really how you think it works?"
If you're talking about a Canada/EU deal you can do that and do a comprehensive deal with the US.
The problem with everyone using the term Free Trade Deal is that there are different types offering different degrees of access and restrictions.
If you had a deal with the EU that allows no custom checks between the EU and UK then that would preclude the UK from doing a deal with the US that would allow them to import their clorine chicken because that would inevitably move into the EU.
So when it comes to the US, UK and EU, theres nothing that stops all three doing deals except that no one wants to meet the US demands as they are. The US demand that the UK (or EU) accept a whole range of reduced standards across a whole range of industries and if the UK agrees to that then they cant have a good trade deal with the EU. This is because the EU isnt going to accept lower standards and has no real need to.
So in reality the UK is going to have to make a decision on who they want the closer trade deal with because the terms of one will block the other. |
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By *andS66Couple
over a year ago
Derby |
"It says the Brexit bill will be up to €75 billion (fact check: it’s between £35-39 billion). The report looks at many types of supposed models for Brexit, but doesn’t assess the outcome of the UK signing trade deals with multiple countries, one of the main reasons for leaving: “We did not explore the… model in which the UK would complete FTAs with numerous countries”.
Rand have used the Treasury model that wrongly predicted a calamitous aftermath of a vote to leave to determine their figures.
Rand’s report also said that if the UK agrees FTAs with both the EU and the US we would see double the amount of GDP growth than any of the 'soft Brexit' scenarios.
I don't follow you.
If the UK could simultaneously do a deal with the US and the EU them the US could do a deal with the EU.
When we sign a trade deal with anyone then we are constrained by those terms when we go and negotiate with someone else.
That is clear right?
So what you're saying us we can only have one trade deal - ever?
Do countries that have trade deals with the EU not have trade deals with anyone else then?
Is that really how you think it works?
If you're talking about a Canada/EU deal you can do that and do a comprehensive deal with the US.
The problem with everyone using the term Free Trade Deal is that there are different types offering different degrees of access and restrictions.
If you had a deal with the EU that allows no custom checks between the EU and UK then that would preclude the UK from doing a deal with the US that would allow them to import their clorine chicken because that would inevitably move into the EU.
So when it comes to the US, UK and EU, theres nothing that stops all three doing deals except that no one wants to meet the US demands as they are. The US demand that the UK (or EU) accept a whole range of reduced standards across a whole range of industries and if the UK agrees to that then they cant have a good trade deal with the EU. This is because the EU isnt going to accept lower standards and has no real need to.
So in reality the UK is going to have to make a decision on who they want the closer trade deal with because the terms of one will block the other."
So are you saying we can't have a Free Trade Agreement with more than one country at the same time?
The EU has an FTA with South Africa. It doesn't have FTAs with Namibia, Botswana, Lesotho, or Swaziland. South Africa does.
How can that happen if you can't have an FTA with more than one country at the same time?
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"
So are you saying we can't have a Free Trade Agreement with more than one country at the same time?
"
No Im not saying that. I didnt say anything even close to that. Nothing in that post was even remotely close to saying that. It was a fairly detailed response that said the exact opposite of that. I have literally no idea how you came away with that impression.
Ill summarise my previous post for you:
There are many types of FTA
There are low access and high access versions
Canada/EU is a relatively low access one
The UK cant have a high access one with both the US and EU because of conflicting demands
This is particularly true if the UK wants to keep regulatory alignment between N. Ireland /Eu and N. Ireland / UK
The UK will have to choose 1 of EU/US to have a high access deal the other will be a low access deal |
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