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Corbyn's welcome speech
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"Looks more and more leader like by the day.
im betting he will be PM by end of this year"
I honestly don't think he will be. The mathematics of the seats just don't support that and, with the fixed parliament terms, it's unlikely that the Conservatives would vote in favour of another general election anytime soon.
I think the most likely scenario is that May will continue as PM till at least late autumn, possibly longer, and the government will staggerer on until by-election losses makes it impossible to command a majority in the house. That's probably 2 years or more. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"Looks more and more leader like by the day.
im betting he will be PM by end of this year
I honestly don't think he will be. The mathematics of the seats just don't support that and, with the fixed parliament terms, it's unlikely that the Conservatives would vote in favour of another general election anytime soon.
I think the most likely scenario is that May will continue as PM till at least late autumn, possibly longer, and the government will staggerer on until by-election losses makes it impossible to command a majority in the house. That's probably 2 years or more."
I agree. The tories wont call anotherGE until they have a candidate from each internal faction, with their own manifesto ideas, to replace may with.
Im not sure if the other parties call force another GE to be called?
This whole situation works in labours favour. It makes them look more competant and gives them time to work out how they can make greater gains in the event of another GE. They do need to improve their manifesto so its yhe less shit option of two menus. |
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By *oi_Lucy OP Couple
over a year ago
Barbados |
"Looks more and more leader like by the day.
im betting he will be PM by end of this year
I honestly don't think he will be. The mathematics of the seats just don't support that and, with the fixed parliament terms, it's unlikely that the Conservatives would vote in favour of another general election anytime soon.
I think the most likely scenario is that May will continue as PM till at least late autumn, possibly longer, and the government will staggerer on until by-election losses makes it impossible to command a majority in the house. That's probably 2 years or more.
I agree. The tories wont call anotherGE until they have a candidate from each internal faction, with their own manifesto ideas, to replace may with.
Im not sure if the other parties call force another GE to be called?
This whole situation works in labours favour. It makes them look more competant and gives them time to work out how they can make greater gains in the event of another GE. They do need to improve their manifesto so its yhe less shit option of two menus."
Things have changed with the Fixed Term parliament act... I've just been reading up on what is required for a vote of no confidence, and it seems to say that this act protects minority governments a bit more, but I can't work out how exactly.
But as far as I can see, it would only require a simple majority vote on no confidence to cause another general election. Although I think it does allow another party to form a government instead, if they can.
-Matt |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"Looks more and more leader like by the day.
im betting he will be PM by end of this year
Looks more and more leader like? FFS the guy looks like dirty old man Steptoe.  "
Take it your not a fan lol |
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By *oo hotCouple
over a year ago
North West |
I think that this Government will face and lose a Brexit related vote of no confidence within the next 12 months. In fact it is probably inevitable.
The Conservative Party has been weakened and it always has been deeply divided about Europe. Critical moments are just around the corner with the EU negotiations and I believe that there will be controversial moves (one way or the other) that Parliament will end up voting on.
The end result will be another Prime Minister or even another Government finishing the Brexit negotiations. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"Looks more and more leader like by the day.
im betting he will be PM by end of this year
I honestly don't think he will be. The mathematics of the seats just don't support that and, with the fixed parliament terms, it's unlikely that the Conservatives would vote in favour of another general election anytime soon.
I think the most likely scenario is that May will continue as PM till at least late autumn, possibly longer, and the government will staggerer on until by-election losses makes it impossible to command a majority in the house. That's probably 2 years or more.
I agree. The tories wont call anotherGE until they have a candidate from each internal faction, with their own manifesto ideas, to replace may with.
Im not sure if the other parties call force another GE to be called?
This whole situation works in labours favour. It makes them look more competant and gives them time to work out how they can make greater gains in the event of another GE. They do need to improve their manifesto so its yhe less shit option of two menus.
Things have changed with the Fixed Term parliament act... I've just been reading up on what is required for a vote of no confidence, and it seems to say that this act protects minority governments a bit more, but I can't work out how exactly.
But as far as I can see, it would only require a simple majority vote on no confidence to cause another general election. Although I think it does allow another party to form a government instead, if they can.
-Matt"
Exactly. Lets look at the maths.
The Conservatives have 318 seats.
326 would have been required for an overall majority.
Sinn Fein do not take up their 7 seats, thereby reducing the working majority required to 319 - which the Conservatives are short by 1.
With the support of the DUP, the conservatives have 328 votes on their side.
You also have to remove that number of DUP seats (10) from the number of opposing votes, taking the maximum number of votes that Corbyn et all could hope to get against the government to 308.
Therefore a vote of no confidence would fail.
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"Looks more and more leader like by the day.
im betting he will be PM by end of this year
I honestly don't think he will be. The mathematics of the seats just don't support that and, with the fixed parliament terms, it's unlikely that the Conservatives would vote in favour of another general election anytime soon.
I think the most likely scenario is that May will continue as PM till at least late autumn, possibly longer, and the government will staggerer on until by-election losses makes it impossible to command a majority in the house. That's probably 2 years or more.
I agree. The tories wont call anotherGE until they have a candidate from each internal faction, with their own manifesto ideas, to replace may with.
Im not sure if the other parties call force another GE to be called?
This whole situation works in labours favour. It makes them look more competant and gives them time to work out how they can make greater gains in the event of another GE. They do need to improve their manifesto so its yhe less shit option of two menus.
Things have changed with the Fixed Term parliament act... I've just been reading up on what is required for a vote of no confidence, and it seems to say that this act protects minority governments a bit more, but I can't work out how exactly.
But as far as I can see, it would only require a simple majority vote on no confidence to cause another general election. Although I think it does allow another party to form a government instead, if they can.
-Matt
Exactly. Lets look at the maths.
The Conservatives have 318 seats.
326 would have been required for an overall majority.
Sinn Fein do not take up their 7 seats, thereby reducing the working majority required to 319 - which the Conservatives are short by 1.
With the support of the DUP, the conservatives have 328 votes on their side.
You also have to remove that number of DUP seats (10) from the number of opposing votes, taking the maximum number of votes that Corbyn et all could hope to get against the government to 308.
Therefore a vote of no confidence would fail.
"
That's making the assumption that a three line whip would be used.
What happens if a couple of Tories don't fall into line?
The Tories are disorganised at the moment. Rebels COULD vote with the oppostion, which makes the prospect of a no confidence vote carried being statistically possible. |
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By *oi_Lucy OP Couple
over a year ago
Barbados |
"Looks more and more leader like by the day.
im betting he will be PM by end of this year
I honestly don't think he will be. The mathematics of the seats just don't support that and, with the fixed parliament terms, it's unlikely that the Conservatives would vote in favour of another general election anytime soon.
I think the most likely scenario is that May will continue as PM till at least late autumn, possibly longer, and the government will staggerer on until by-election losses makes it impossible to command a majority in the house. That's probably 2 years or more.
I agree. The tories wont call anotherGE until they have a candidate from each internal faction, with their own manifesto ideas, to replace may with.
Im not sure if the other parties call force another GE to be called?
This whole situation works in labours favour. It makes them look more competant and gives them time to work out how they can make greater gains in the event of another GE. They do need to improve their manifesto so its yhe less shit option of two menus.
Things have changed with the Fixed Term parliament act... I've just been reading up on what is required for a vote of no confidence, and it seems to say that this act protects minority governments a bit more, but I can't work out how exactly.
But as far as I can see, it would only require a simple majority vote on no confidence to cause another general election. Although I think it does allow another party to form a government instead, if they can.
-Matt
Exactly. Lets look at the maths.
The Conservatives have 318 seats.
326 would have been required for an overall majority.
Sinn Fein do not take up their 7 seats, thereby reducing the working majority required to 319 - which the Conservatives are short by 1.
With the support of the DUP, the conservatives have 328 votes on their side.
You also have to remove that number of DUP seats (10) from the number of opposing votes, taking the maximum number of votes that Corbyn et all could hope to get against the government to 308.
Therefore a vote of no confidence would fail.
That's making the assumption that a three line whip would be used.
What happens if a couple of Tories don't fall into line?
The Tories are disorganised at the moment. Rebels COULD vote with the oppostion, which makes the prospect of a no confidence vote carried being statistically possible."
Exactly. I don't know what the 'penalty' is for dissenting a 3-line whip. But I'd guess that if you are that pissed off with your current government, then what's the worst that could happen? I presume you could lose a cabinet position, but as a backbencher, she couldn't remove you as an MP could she?
-Matt |
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By *ercuryMan
over a year ago
Grantham |
Factor in that the DUP will willingly side with the Conservatives.
They would not want a Labour government, as they know, where historically, Jeremy Corbyn's Irish tendencies lie.
Labour can huff and blow as much as they like, but the Conservatives have the numbers and can play the system to their advantage. |
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"Looks more and more leader like by the day.
im betting he will be PM by end of this year
I honestly don't think he will be. The mathematics of the seats just don't support that and, with the fixed parliament terms, it's unlikely that the Conservatives would vote in favour of another general election anytime soon.
I think the most likely scenario is that May will continue as PM till at least late autumn, possibly longer, and the government will staggerer on until by-election losses makes it impossible to command a majority in the house. That's probably 2 years or more.
I agree. The tories wont call anotherGE until they have a candidate from each internal faction, with their own manifesto ideas, to replace may with.
Im not sure if the other parties call force another GE to be called?
This whole situation works in labours favour. It makes them look more competant and gives them time to work out how they can make greater gains in the event of another GE. They do need to improve their manifesto so its yhe less shit option of two menus.
Things have changed with the Fixed Term parliament act... I've just been reading up on what is required for a vote of no confidence, and it seems to say that this act protects minority governments a bit more, but I can't work out how exactly.
But as far as I can see, it would only require a simple majority vote on no confidence to cause another general election. Although I think it does allow another party to form a government instead, if they can.
-Matt
Exactly. Lets look at the maths.
The Conservatives have 318 seats.
326 would have been required for an overall majority.
Sinn Fein do not take up their 7 seats, thereby reducing the working majority required to 319 - which the Conservatives are short by 1.
With the support of the DUP, the conservatives have 328 votes on their side.
You also have to remove that number of DUP seats (10) from the number of opposing votes, taking the maximum number of votes that Corbyn et all could hope to get against the government to 308.
Therefore a vote of no confidence would fail.
That's making the assumption that a three line whip would be used.
What happens if a couple of Tories don't fall into line?
The Tories are disorganised at the moment. Rebels COULD vote with the oppostion, which makes the prospect of a no confidence vote carried being statistically possible.
Exactly. I don't know what the 'penalty' is for dissenting a 3-line whip. But I'd guess that if you are that pissed off with your current government, then what's the worst that could happen? I presume you could lose a cabinet position, but as a backbencher, she couldn't remove you as an MP could she?
-Matt"
I seem to remember when Theresa Gorman lost the whip (along with some others), she lost any support from the Tory party at the palace at Westminster. That is, no calls from the Tories to tell her when to vote, or any other events which may benefit her and party. In essence, she was treated like an independent MP.
The way things are, I think quite a few MPs will be happy to lose the whip rather than lose their seat.
And no, Theresa can't remove you from the party. That's down to Tory Party HQ using the party rules and regulations.
If that was the case, Thatcher would've got rid of Heseltine ages ago... |
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"Factor in that the DUP will willingly side with the Conservatives.
They would not want a Labour government, as they know, where historically, Jeremy Corbyn's Irish tendencies lie.
Labour can huff and blow as much as they like, but the Conservatives have the numbers and can play the system to their advantage."
At the moment they have, but if someone from her own party calls her 'dead woman walking', and if I was a Tory MP, I'd be making plans.
Having to be there for every single vote, having to cancel holidays with family, and not being able to fall ill, potentially having to be dragged in attached too a drip in order to get a vote through?
This is ridiculous.
Something has to give. You can't whip MPs to an inch of their life.
And not all MPs will agree with everything.
The MPs who had dirt on them will have to go through the voting lobby because the whips will use their sins against them.
However, the clean MPs...ahhh...
The whips are gonna be working overtime. I wouldn't want to be them at all.
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By *ercuryMan
over a year ago
Grantham |
"Factor in that the DUP will willingly side with the Conservatives.
They would not want a Labour government, as they know, where historically, Jeremy Corbyn's Irish tendencies lie.
Labour can huff and blow as much as they like, but the Conservatives have the numbers and can play the system to their advantage.
At the moment they have, but if someone from her own party calls her 'dead woman walking', and if I was a Tory MP, I'd be making plans.
Having to be there for every single vote, having to cancel holidays with family, and not being able to fall ill, potentially having to be dragged in attached too a drip in order to get a vote through?
This is ridiculous.
Something has to give. You can't whip MPs to an inch of their life.
And not all MPs will agree with everything.
The MPs who had dirt on them will have to go through the voting lobby because the whips will use their sins against them.
However, the clean MPs...ahhh...
The whips are gonna be working overtime. I wouldn't want to be them at all.
"
Funnily enough, my own MP, Nicholas Boles who is recovering from aggressive cancer, was wheeled from hospital to parliament to vote with the Government. |
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By *oi_Lucy OP Couple
over a year ago
Barbados |
"Just a thought but if some conservative MPs did join a vote of no confidence, would they not risk voting their own party and thus themselves out of government? It seems unlikely. "
We live in strange times. I wouldn't rule anything out!
-Matt |
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"Looks more and more leader like by the day.
im betting he will be PM by end of this year
Looks more and more leader like? FFS the guy looks like dirty old man Steptoe. "
Haha come on centaur i know he's growing on you...its OK to admit it  |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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Fixed term parliament act requires a specific vote to dissipolve parliament. It requires there to be a two-thirds majority.
Turkeys don't vote for Christmas. Even if May does go the Tories will stumble on. Opposition would require two-thirds of 643.....or 429 votes. That will never happen.
I rest my case. |
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"Fixed term parliament act requires a specific vote to dissipolve parliament. It requires there to be a two-thirds majority.
Turkeys don't vote for Christmas. Even if May does go the Tories will stumble on. Opposition would require two-thirds of 643.....or 429 votes. That will never happen.
I rest my case."
Yeah, but look what happened to Thatcher. Her party did hold a majority, but her MPs got rid of her. The 1922 committee can work in strange ways...
May is in a much more shaky position. There are many Tories who are aghast at the idea of working with the DUP, for instance. And there's Br***t. (I don't want to open that can of worms!)
The 1922 committee can work in strange ways. How many MPs haven't returned back? They may look calm but they are tapping their feet. Angrily.
If I was a Tory MP, I'd be working on how to get rid of her. She's toxic and a cost to a marginal seat. So, I reckon some will work with the enemy. She can only smooth the 1922 committee's feathers only so much. A political party can grit their teeth only for so long.
In short, we may see a vote of no confidence arise because the bones of contention produced would be more than a butcher's shop...
I never thought I'd say this, but maybe Labour was lucky to sort out their shit in the time period that they were given. Shit sorting whilst in minority rule government is not a good thing to do... |
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By *ercuryMan
over a year ago
Grantham |
"Fixed term parliament act requires a specific vote to dissipolve parliament. It requires there to be a two-thirds majority.
Turkeys don't vote for Christmas. Even if May does go the Tories will stumble on. Opposition would require two-thirds of 643.....or 429 votes. That will never happen.
I rest my case.
Yeah, but look what happened to Thatcher. Her party did hold a majority, but her MPs got rid of her. The 1922 committee can work in strange ways...
May is in a much more shaky position. There are many Tories who are aghast at the idea of working with the DUP, for instance. And there's Br***t. (I don't want to open that can of worms!)
The 1922 committee can work in strange ways. How many MPs haven't returned back? They may look calm but they are tapping their feet. Angrily.
If I was a Tory MP, I'd be working on how to get rid of her. She's toxic and a cost to a marginal seat. So, I reckon some will work with the enemy. She can only smooth the 1922 committee's feathers only so much. A political party can grit their teeth only for so long.
In short, we may see a vote of no confidence arise because the bones of contention produced would be more than a butcher's shop...
I never thought I'd say this, but maybe Labour was lucky to sort out their shit in the time period that they were given. Shit sorting whilst in minority rule government is not a good thing to do..."
The 1922 Committee do not have the power alone to remove a leader of the Conservative party. They only act when they receive a "motion of no confidence" from at least 15% of Conservative MPs.
Leader of the 1922 Committee, Graham Brady, has already come out in support of the Theresa May. |
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By *oo hotCouple
over a year ago
North West |
"Just a thought but if some conservative MPs did join a vote of no confidence, would they not risk voting their own party and thus themselves out of government? It seems unlikely. "
They wouldn't, but they would not necessarily vote against it either.
A vote of no confidence just does not come out of thin air. If a piece of legislation gets stuck because not enough Conservative MP's have voted for it, then an opposition MP could question the validity of the Govt by calling a vote of no confidence.
As was stated above, it is all about pressure and the Conservatives have to get every MP to vote and every MP to follow the line. Repeated failures and repeated votes of no confidence damage the Govt and in the end they would have to relent. |
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"Looks more and more leader like by the day.
im betting he will be PM by end of this year
I honestly don't think he will be. The mathematics of the seats just don't support that and, with the fixed parliament terms, it's unlikely that the Conservatives would vote in favour of another general election anytime soon.
I think the most likely scenario is that May will continue as PM till at least late autumn, possibly longer, and the government will staggerer on until by-election losses makes it impossible to command a majority in the house. That's probably 2 years or more.
I agree. The tories wont call anotherGE until they have a candidate from each internal faction, with their own manifesto ideas, to replace may with.
Im not sure if the other parties call force another GE to be called?
This whole situation works in labours favour. It makes them look more competant and gives them time to work out how they can make greater gains in the event of another GE. They do need to improve their manifesto so its yhe less shit option of two menus.
Things have changed with the Fixed Term parliament act... I've just been reading up on what is required for a vote of no confidence, and it seems to say that this act protects minority governments a bit more, but I can't work out how exactly.
But as far as I can see, it would only require a simple majority vote on no confidence to cause another general election. Although I think it does allow another party to form a government instead, if they can.
-Matt
Exactly. Lets look at the maths.
The Conservatives have 318 seats.
326 would have been required for an overall majority.
Sinn Fein do not take up their 7 seats, thereby reducing the working majority required to 319 - which the Conservatives are short by 1.
With the support of the DUP, the conservatives have 328 votes on their side.
You also have to remove that number of DUP seats (10) from the number of opposing votes, taking the maximum number of votes that Corbyn et all could hope to get against the government to 308.
Therefore a vote of no confidence would fail.
That's making the assumption that a three line whip would be used.
What happens if a couple of Tories don't fall into line?
The Tories are disorganised at the moment. Rebels COULD vote with the oppostion, which makes the prospect of a no confidence vote carried being statistically possible."
On the specific issue of brexit you have around 5 or 6 Labour MP's who were on the Leave side of the referendum and they publicly backed Brexit. People like Kate Hoey, John Mann, Frank Field and Dennis skinner. They are more than likely to vote with the tories and DUP on Brexit so Tory rebels will be cancelled out in that regard. |
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"Fixed term parliament act requires a specific vote to dissipolve parliament. It requires there to be a two-thirds majority.
Turkeys don't vote for Christmas. Even if May does go the Tories will stumble on. Opposition would require two-thirds of 643.....or 429 votes. That will never happen.
I rest my case.
Yeah, but look what happened to Thatcher. Her party did hold a majority, but her MPs got rid of her. The 1922 committee can work in strange ways...
May is in a much more shaky position. There are many Tories who are aghast at the idea of working with the DUP, for instance. And there's Br***t. (I don't want to open that can of worms!)
The 1922 committee can work in strange ways. How many MPs haven't returned back? They may look calm but they are tapping their feet. Angrily.
If I was a Tory MP, I'd be working on how to get rid of her. She's toxic and a cost to a marginal seat. So, I reckon some will work with the enemy. She can only smooth the 1922 committee's feathers only so much. A political party can grit their teeth only for so long.
In short, we may see a vote of no confidence arise because the bones of contention produced would be more than a butcher's shop...
I never thought I'd say this, but maybe Labour was lucky to sort out their shit in the time period that they were given. Shit sorting whilst in minority rule government is not a good thing to do...
The 1922 Committee do not have the power alone to remove a leader of the Conservative party. They only act when they receive a "motion of no confidence" from at least 15% of Conservative MPs.
Leader of the 1922 Committee, Graham Brady, has already come out in support of the Theresa May."
True.
However, they are the voice of the backbenchers. No PM on their right mind would cheese them off.
As for Graham Brady, if I was him I'd support her too!
Believe me, the knives are out in private... |
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"Looks more and more leader like by the day.
im betting he will be PM by end of this year
Looks more and more leader like? FFS the guy looks like dirty old man Steptoe.
Take it your not a fan lol"
Half expect him to start each speech by shouting "Harold!!!" |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
"Fixed term parliament act requires a specific vote to dissipolve parliament. It requires there to be a two-thirds majority.
Turkeys don't vote for Christmas. Even if May does go the Tories will stumble on. Opposition would require two-thirds of 643.....or 429 votes. That will never happen.
I rest my case.
Yeah, but look what happened to Thatcher. Her party did hold a majority, but her MPs got rid of her. The 1922 committee can work in strange ways...
May is in a much more shaky position. There are many Tories who are aghast at the idea of working with the DUP, for instance. And there's Br***t. (I don't want to open that can of worms!)
The 1922 committee can work in strange ways. How many MPs haven't returned back? They may look calm but they are tapping their feet. Angrily.
If I was a Tory MP, I'd be working on how to get rid of her. She's toxic and a cost to a marginal seat. So, I reckon some will work with the enemy. She can only smooth the 1922 committee's feathers only so much. A political party can grit their teeth only for so long.
In short, we may see a vote of no confidence arise because the bones of contention produced would be more than a butcher's shop...
I never thought I'd say this, but maybe Labour was lucky to sort out their shit in the time period that they were given. Shit sorting whilst in minority rule government is not a good thing to do...
The 1922 Committee do not have the power alone to remove a leader of the Conservative party. They only act when they receive a "motion of no confidence" from at least 15% of Conservative MPs.
Leader of the 1922 Committee, Graham Brady, has already come out in support of the Theresa May.
True.
However, they are the voice of the backbenchers. No PM on their right mind would cheese them off.
As for Graham Brady, if I was him I'd support her too!
Believe me, the knives are out in private..."
Believe you? Are you a Tory MP by any chance? |
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"Fixed term parliament act requires a specific vote to dissipolve parliament. It requires there to be a two-thirds majority.
Turkeys don't vote for Christmas. Even if May does go the Tories will stumble on. Opposition would require two-thirds of 643.....or 429 votes. That will never happen.
I rest my case.
Yeah, but look what happened to Thatcher. Her party did hold a majority, but her MPs got rid of her. The 1922 committee can work in strange ways...
May is in a much more shaky position. There are many Tories who are aghast at the idea of working with the DUP, for instance. And there's Br***t. (I don't want to open that can of worms!)
The 1922 committee can work in strange ways. How many MPs haven't returned back? They may look calm but they are tapping their feet. Angrily.
If I was a Tory MP, I'd be working on how to get rid of her. She's toxic and a cost to a marginal seat. So, I reckon some will work with the enemy. She can only smooth the 1922 committee's feathers only so much. A political party can grit their teeth only for so long.
In short, we may see a vote of no confidence arise because the bones of contention produced would be more than a butcher's shop...
I never thought I'd say this, but maybe Labour was lucky to sort out their shit in the time period that they were given. Shit sorting whilst in minority rule government is not a good thing to do...
The 1922 Committee do not have the power alone to remove a leader of the Conservative party. They only act when they receive a "motion of no confidence" from at least 15% of Conservative MPs.
Leader of the 1922 Committee, Graham Brady, has already come out in support of the Theresa May.
True.
However, they are the voice of the backbenchers. No PM on their right mind would cheese them off.
As for Graham Brady, if I was him I'd support her too!
Believe me, the knives are out in private...
Believe you? Are you a Tory MP by any chance?"
What do you think?
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"Fixed term parliament act requires a specific vote to dissipolve parliament. It requires there to be a two-thirds majority.
Turkeys don't vote for Christmas. Even if May does go the Tories will stumble on. Opposition would require two-thirds of 643.....or 429 votes. That will never happen.
I rest my case.
Yeah, but look what happened to Thatcher. Her party did hold a majority, but her MPs got rid of her. The 1922 committee can work in strange ways...
May is in a much more shaky position. There are many Tories who are aghast at the idea of working with the DUP, for instance. And there's Br***t. (I don't want to open that can of worms!)
The 1922 committee can work in strange ways. How many MPs haven't returned back? They may look calm but they are tapping their feet. Angrily.
If I was a Tory MP, I'd be working on how to get rid of her. She's toxic and a cost to a marginal seat. So, I reckon some will work with the enemy. She can only smooth the 1922 committee's feathers only so much. A political party can grit their teeth only for so long.
In short, we may see a vote of no confidence arise because the bones of contention produced would be more than a butcher's shop...
I never thought I'd say this, but maybe Labour was lucky to sort out their shit in the time period that they were given. Shit sorting whilst in minority rule government is not a good thing to do...
The 1922 Committee do not have the power alone to remove a leader of the Conservative party. They only act when they receive a "motion of no confidence" from at least 15% of Conservative MPs.
Leader of the 1922 Committee, Graham Brady, has already come out in support of the Theresa May.
True.
However, they are the voice of the backbenchers. No PM on their right mind would cheese them off.
As for Graham Brady, if I was him I'd support her too!
Believe me, the knives are out in private...
Believe you? Are you a Tory MP by any chance?
What do you think?
"
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By *ercuryMan
over a year ago
Grantham |
"Fixed term parliament act requires a specific vote to dissipolve parliament. It requires there to be a two-thirds majority.
Turkeys don't vote for Christmas. Even if May does go the Tories will stumble on. Opposition would require two-thirds of 643.....or 429 votes. That will never happen.
I rest my case.
Yeah, but look what happened to Thatcher. Her party did hold a majority, but her MPs got rid of her. The 1922 committee can work in strange ways...
May is in a much more shaky position. There are many Tories who are aghast at the idea of working with the DUP, for instance. And there's Br***t. (I don't want to open that can of worms!)
The 1922 committee can work in strange ways. How many MPs haven't returned back? They may look calm but they are tapping their feet. Angrily.
If I was a Tory MP, I'd be working on how to get rid of her. She's toxic and a cost to a marginal seat. So, I reckon some will work with the enemy. She can only smooth the 1922 committee's feathers only so much. A political party can grit their teeth only for so long.
In short, we may see a vote of no confidence arise because the bones of contention produced would be more than a butcher's shop...
I never thought I'd say this, but maybe Labour was lucky to sort out their shit in the time period that they were given. Shit sorting whilst in minority rule government is not a good thing to do...
The 1922 Committee do not have the power alone to remove a leader of the Conservative party. They only act when they receive a "motion of no confidence" from at least 15% of Conservative MPs.
Leader of the 1922 Committee, Graham Brady, has already come out in support of the Theresa May.
True.
However, they are the voice of the backbenchers. No PM on their right mind would cheese them off.
As for Graham Brady, if I was him I'd support her too!
Believe me, the knives are out in private..."
Theresa May's trusted advisors, Timothy and Hill, have gone and been replaced by Gavin Barwell. He is younger and extremely streetwise, a smart cookie. I'm sure he'll make a far better conduit between cabinet, backbenchers and the PM.
Two adages here....to beat your enemy, first understand and respect him. This is something that the Conservative party didn't even come close to during the GE campaign. They won't make that mistake again.
Secondly.....a wounded animal is dangerous. Theresa May was wounded, but not fatally. The Conservative Party was wounded but again not fatally; they still manage to form the Goverment. They will learn from this and in time, come back even stronger.
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By *dwalu2Couple
over a year ago
Bristol |
"Fixed term parliament act requires a specific vote to dissipolve parliament. It requires there to be a two-thirds majority.
Turkeys don't vote for Christmas. Even if May does go the Tories will stumble on. Opposition would require two-thirds of 643.....or 429 votes. That will never happen.
I rest my case.
Yeah, but look what happened to Thatcher. Her party did hold a majority, but her MPs got rid of her. The 1922 committee can work in strange ways...
May is in a much more shaky position. There are many Tories who are aghast at the idea of working with the DUP, for instance. And there's Br***t. (I don't want to open that can of worms!)
The 1922 committee can work in strange ways. How many MPs haven't returned back? They may look calm but they are tapping their feet. Angrily.
If I was a Tory MP, I'd be working on how to get rid of her. She's toxic and a cost to a marginal seat. So, I reckon some will work with the enemy. She can only smooth the 1922 committee's feathers only so much. A political party can grit their teeth only for so long.
In short, we may see a vote of no confidence arise because the bones of contention produced would be more than a butcher's shop...
I never thought I'd say this, but maybe Labour was lucky to sort out their shit in the time period that they were given. Shit sorting whilst in minority rule government is not a good thing to do...
The 1922 Committee do not have the power alone to remove a leader of the Conservative party. They only act when they receive a "motion of no confidence" from at least 15% of Conservative MPs.
Leader of the 1922 Committee, Graham Brady, has already come out in support of the Theresa May.
True.
However, they are the voice of the backbenchers. No PM on their right mind would cheese them off.
As for Graham Brady, if I was him I'd support her too!
Believe me, the knives are out in private...
Theresa May's trusted advisors, Timothy and Hill, have gone and been replaced by Gavin Barwell. He is younger and extremely streetwise, a smart cookie. I'm sure he'll make a far better conduit between cabinet, backbenchers and the PM.
Two adages here....to beat your enemy, first understand and respect him. This is something that the Conservative party didn't even come close to during the GE campaign. They won't make that mistake again.
Secondly.....a wounded animal is dangerous. Theresa May was wounded, but not fatally. The Conservative Party was wounded but again not fatally; they still manage to form the Goverment. They will learn from this and in time, come back even stronger.
"
I love the idea that Barwell is some sort of 'streetwise, smart cookie'.
This is Gavin Barwell, the spluttering pencil-necked geek who couldn't get himself re-elected as an MP, and who is now publically toxic due to his career inaction over housing recommendations that are going to forever link him with the death of hundreds (and it eventually will be confirmed in the hundreds) at Grenfell?
If you can't recognise the very definition of a hopeless case when you see it, no wonder you can't see the Tories are finished.  |
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"Looks more and more leader like by the day.
im betting he will be PM by end of this year
I honestly don't think he will be. The mathematics of the seats just don't support that and, with the fixed parliament terms, it's unlikely that the Conservatives would vote in favour of another general election anytime soon.
I think the most likely scenario is that May will continue as PM till at least late autumn, possibly longer, and the government will staggerer on until by-election losses makes it impossible to command a majority in the house. That's probably 2 years or more.
I agree. The tories wont call anotherGE until they have a candidate from each internal faction, with their own manifesto ideas, to replace may with.
Im not sure if the other parties call force another GE to be called?
This whole situation works in labours favour. It makes them look more competant and gives them time to work out how they can make greater gains in the event of another GE. They do need to improve their manifesto so its yhe less shit option of two menus.
Things have changed with the Fixed Term parliament act... I've just been reading up on what is required for a vote of no confidence, and it seems to say that this act protects minority governments a bit more, but I can't work out how exactly.
But as far as I can see, it would only require a simple majority vote on no confidence to cause another general election. Although I think it does allow another party to form a government instead, if they can.
-Matt
Exactly. Lets look at the maths.
The Conservatives have 318 seats.
326 would have been required for an overall majority.
Sinn Fein do not take up their 7 seats, thereby reducing the working majority required to 319 - which the Conservatives are short by 1.
With the support of the DUP, the conservatives have 328 votes on their side.
You also have to remove that number of DUP seats (10) from the number of opposing votes, taking the maximum number of votes that Corbyn et all could hope to get against the government to 308.
Therefore a vote of no confidence would fail.
That's making the assumption that a three line whip would be used.
What happens if a couple of Tories don't fall into line?
The Tories are disorganised at the moment. Rebels COULD vote with the oppostion, which makes the prospect of a no confidence vote carried being statistically possible.
Exactly. I don't know what the 'penalty' is for dissenting a 3-line whip. But I'd guess that if you are that pissed off with your current government, then what's the worst that could happen? I presume you could lose a cabinet position, but as a backbencher, she couldn't remove you as an MP could she?
-Matt"
The worst punishment a party can give an MP for not obeying a three-line-whip is to withdraw the whip. That means that the MP is no longer an MP for that party. They effectivity become an independent MP. They can also be barred from standing as an official candidate for that party in future elections. |
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