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General election
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"If lib and green voters have their heads screwed on they'll vote Labour..... if."
If UKIP voters have theirs screwed on they will vote Conservative ! I will . |
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"If lib and green voters have their heads screwed on they'll vote Labour..... if.
If UKIP voters have theirs screwed on they will vote Conservative ! I will ."
Of course. But don't forget some ukip voters were from Labour, and Corbyn is the only leader who actually wanted brexit. |
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OK I'll put my head on the chopping block.
Tories 365.
Labour 169.
SNP 48.
Lib Dem 42.
UKIP 3.
Green 1.
PC. 3.
NI mix 18.
Tory majority 80.
Where do I get that lot from?
Nowhere really just gut feeling based on a few indicators.
Firstly while the polls show a huge lead for the Tories I think that during a campaign some of it will be pegged back but I still expect them to make significant gains.
Labour will have considerable losses in England but I think they will claw back a few of their Scottish seats from last time which is reflected in the SNP's losses.
The Lib Dems will do quite well. Even as a Brexit supporter I have to concede that many remainers will jump into their camp.
UKIP are pretty much an unknown quantity this time. Many of their supporters will think "job done" and defect back to the Tories. However they could still pull a surprise or two out of the hat, especially in some northern seats where disgruntled traditional Labour voters could match up with tactical voting Tories to nick them a few seats.
Whatever the result it will be a very interesting campaign.
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By *atcoupleCouple
over a year ago
Suffolk - East Anglia |
"OK I'll put my head on the chopping block.
Tories 365.
Labour 169.
SNP 48.
Lib Dem 42.
UKIP 3.
Green 1.
PC. 3.
NI mix 18.
Tory majority 80.
Where do I get that lot from?
Nowhere really just gut feeling based on a few indicators.
Firstly while the polls show a huge lead for the Tories I think that during a campaign some of it will be pegged back but I still expect them to make significant gains.
Labour will have considerable losses in England but I think they will claw back a few of their Scottish seats from last time which is reflected in the SNP's losses.
The Lib Dems will do quite well. Even as a Brexit supporter I have to concede that many remainers will jump into their camp.
UKIP are pretty much an unknown quantity this time. Many of their supporters will think "job done" and defect back to the Tories. However they could still pull a surprise or two out of the hat, especially in some northern seats where disgruntled traditional Labour voters could match up with tactical voting Tories to nick them a few seats.
Whatever the result it will be a very interesting campaign.
"
Well...I hope you are right.  |
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By *oo hotCouple
over a year ago
North West |
Just putting Brexit aside for a moment...
Is it really a good idea to be wishing/hoping/praying for an absolute stonewall conservative majority?
Governance by ideology does not sit right with me. If May showed a little more even-handedness in her cabinet it might not feel quite as risky, but there appears to be no balance with her at all.
An ideologically driven PM, surrounded by YES men and an absolute majority to do whatever she sees fit in the name of conservatism. |
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By *andemanMan
over a year ago
bedforshire |
Well this will be the election with basically only 2 issues.
Brexit and the NHS.
No £350 Million a week? Clear liers made that up! So Gove Lothsome Stewart Johnson and the rest on for a good kicking lying scumbags!
12 Tories under investigation for election fraud.
Libdems to make massive comeback garenteed 48.1% of electorate in general agreement with them. Labour to steal 3 back of SNP (second Referendum not that popular an Idea). TARTAN TORIES will gain one.
Green will hold and may steal one more.
Ukip nobs non as they are Allnutts (see what I did there).
Rainbow Remain Coalition lead by LibDems and JC on back Bench. My prediction. |
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By *UNKIEMan
over a year ago
south east |
"OK I'll put my head on the chopping block.
Tories 365...... 366
Labour 169...... 173
SNP 48...... 59
Lib Dem 42...... 26
UKIP 3...... 0
Green 1...... 3
PC. 3...... 5
NI mix 18...... 18
"
My prediction  |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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The pound dipped in value following the announcement that there was going to be an announcement, but climbed to it's highest value in 10 weeks following the Prime Ministers statement |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"The pound dipped in value following the announcement that there was going to be an announcement, but climbed to it's highest value in 10 weeks following the Prime Ministers statement"
Just imagine how far it would fall if Labour got in  |
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"OK I'll put my head on the chopping block.
Tories 365.
Labour 169.
SNP 48.
Lib Dem 42.
UKIP 3.
Green 1.
PC. 3.
NI mix 18.
Tory majority 80.
Where do I get that lot from?
Nowhere really just gut feeling based on a few indicators.
Firstly while the polls show a huge lead for the Tories I think that during a campaign some of it will be pegged back but I still expect them to make significant gains.
Labour will have considerable losses in England but I think they will claw back a few of their Scottish seats from last time which is reflected in the SNP's losses.
The Lib Dems will do quite well. Even as a Brexit supporter I have to concede that many remainers will jump into their camp.
UKIP are pretty much an unknown quantity this time. Many of their supporters will think "job done" and defect back to the Tories. However they could still pull a surprise or two out of the hat, especially in some northern seats where disgruntled traditional Labour voters could match up with tactical voting Tories to nick them a few seats.
Whatever the result it will be a very interesting campaign.
"
I also think It will be a healthy Tory majority. As far a ukip go I think Nigel Farage will win if he stands in South Thanet again following the controversy over the Tory candidate winning there last time. |
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"OK I'll put my head on the chopping block.
Tories 365...... 366
Labour 169...... 173
SNP 48...... 59
Lib Dem 42...... 26
UKIP 3...... 0
Green 1...... 3
PC. 3...... 5
NI mix 18...... 18
My prediction "
Every bit as valid as any other prediction.
On the Tories and Labour we are pretty much of the same mind.
While I get it that your SNP prediction is a bit tongue in cheek, I don't think even Nicola herself would realistically see the SNP picking up every seat in Scotland. Then again with Corbyn in charge of Labour she could come close.
However I really do think that they peaked in 2015 and will struggle to hold on to what they have.
Maybe I was being a bit too kind to the Lib Dems but with the Brexit fallout anything could happen. I think you are being a bit hard on them though. I think they will get at least mid 30's.
Plaid Cymru are a bit of a busted flush, in many places they were kicked into fourth by UKIP last time, but you could be half right. Ynys Môn (Anglesey) will be a winnable target so maybe I will upgrade them to 4.
For the life of me I can't see where the Greens are going to pick up any more seats. I think I was being more than kind by giving them holding on to the one they have.
The UKIP question is the more interesting. Last time they came very close, but not close enough, to making a breakthrough. This time you could be right and they will finish up with nothing and, as I said above, a lot of Tories will think "job done" and go back. However a lot of Labour constituencies in the north voted overwhelmingly for Brexit and many traditional Labour voters have no liking for Corbyn. It wouldn't take much in the way of tactical voting from Tories in some of those seats to spring a surprise or two.
It may not have happened in the Stoke bye election but that isn't to say it can't happen elsewhere. We will see. |
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"OK I'll put my head on the chopping block.
Tories 365...... 366
Labour 169...... 173
SNP 48...... 59
Lib Dem 42...... 26
UKIP 3...... 0
Green 1...... 3
PC. 3...... 5
NI mix 18...... 18
My prediction
Every bit as valid as any other prediction.
On the Tories and Labour we are pretty much of the same mind.
While I get it that your SNP prediction is a bit tongue in cheek, I don't think even Nicola herself would realistically see the SNP picking up every seat in Scotland. Then again with Corbyn in charge of Labour she could come close.
However I really do think that they peaked in 2015 and will struggle to hold on to what they have.
Maybe I was being a bit too kind to the Lib Dems but with the Brexit fallout anything could happen. I think you are being a bit hard on them though. I think they will get at least mid 30's.
Plaid Cymru are a bit of a busted flush, in many places they were kicked into fourth by UKIP last time, but you could be half right. Ynys Môn (Anglesey) will be a winnable target so maybe I will upgrade them to 4.
For the life of me I can't see where the Greens are going to pick up any more seats. I think I was being more than kind by giving them holding on to the one they have.
The UKIP question is the more interesting. Last time they came very close, but not close enough, to making a breakthrough. This time you could be right and they will finish up with nothing and, as I said above, a lot of Tories will think "job done" and go back. However a lot of Labour constituencies in the north voted overwhelmingly for Brexit and many traditional Labour voters have no liking for Corbyn. It wouldn't take much in the way of tactical voting from Tories in some of those seats to spring a surprise or two.
It may not have happened in the Stoke bye election but that isn't to say it can't happen elsewhere. We will see. "
Douglas Carswell's seat could also be interesting. Will he stand for the tories again or as an independent now he has left ukip? Ukip donor Aaron Banks said a few months ago he'd like to stand in Carswell's seat if there was an election there. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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" I don't think even Nicola herself would realistically see the SNP picking up every seat in Scotland. Then again with Corbyn in charge of Labour she could come close.
However I really do think that they peaked in 2015 and will struggle to hold on to what they have.
"
You're probably not aware that the one Lib/Dem seat in Scotland is held by the MP that admitted lying to the press about NS meeting with the French Ambassador in Scotland to discuss a Tory win at the last GE. A crowd funded appeal to have him removed by the Scottish courts launched by his own constituents ultimately failed but he's VERY unlikely to be voted in again. Labour has absolutely no chance in Scotland and may well lose their one seat. It is possible, however, that the Torys could pick up a couple of seats. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"Couldn't give a shit.I'm on Holiday then and they're all a bunch of lying scumbags.
I'm thinking of starting a new party "Fed Up Of The Rest"
"
Same here.. The biggest criminals in this country are the politicians. |
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" It is possible, however, that the Torys could pick up a couple of seats. "
Doubtful. The tories' apparent revival in Scotland is courtesy of labour's disintegration, rather than any progress on their part.
Sole tory MP David Mundell's majority was reduced at the last GE and the tories are hardly more popular now than then.
The best the tories can argue (and do, in an insult to the intelligence) is that the SNP are less popular because they lost their outright majority.... even although the SNP overall majority was courtesy of more votes! Doh!
"Day job, day job, blah blah blah, bollocks" She's a formidable politician, is wee chub reporter Ruthie! |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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" It is possible, however, that the Torys could pick up a couple of seats.
Doubtful. The tories' apparent revival in Scotland is courtesy of labour's disintegration, rather than any progress on their part.
Sole tory MP David Mundell's majority was reduced at the last GE and the tories are hardly more popular now than then.
The best the tories can argue (and do, in an insult to the intelligence) is that the SNP are less popular because they lost their outright majority.... even although the SNP overall majority was courtesy of more votes! Doh!
"Day job, day job, blah blah blah, bollocks" She's a formidable politician, is wee chub reporter Ruthie! "
I actually hope you're correct. I'd love to see a Tory whitewash in Scotland.
TM out for a duck.
Happy days. |
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By *andemanMan
over a year ago
bedforshire |
All depends on what the key issues emerge and the level of personality Politics plays.
May (who i think is a lying and hesitant person of dubious parentage) can command some statesmanship credentials and people do want a goverment run by competent people.
JC has integrety and compassion but is shamboloc in his leadership style.
Farron is untested (but we could get an "I agree with Nick Moment)
Sturgen actually stands best of the main players competent trustworthy and carring. (no matter what the reality this is how she comes accross).
Ukip are a shambles and Nuttle is Nuts. I really do not see them going anywhere accept backwards.
The first big indicator will be the local elections that now take on a much bigger importance. These have been predicted for some time to be a big LibDem win. If that happens a month before the General Election it could have a major impact on the LibDem General Election proformance. And that could change everything. |
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This is a General Election....if May insists on a steady as she goes or Brexit only issue then remember Heath in 74; this is about all policies not just one and remember May has no mandate on any policy as yet. |
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By *ercuryMan
over a year ago
Grantham |
"All depends on what the key issues emerge and the level of personality Politics plays.
May (who i think is a lying and hesitant person of dubious parentage) can command some statesmanship credentials and people do want a goverment run by competent people.
JC has integrety and compassion but is shamboloc in his leadership style.
Farron is untested (but we could get an "I agree with Nick Moment)
Sturgen actually stands best of the main players competent trustworthy and carring. (no matter what the reality this is how she comes accross).
Ukip are a shambles and Nuttle is Nuts. I really do not see them going anywhere accept backwards.
The first big indicator will be the local elections that now take on a much bigger importance. These have been predicted for some time to be a big LibDem win. If that happens a month before the General Election it could have a major impact on the LibDem General Election proformance. And that could change everything. "
"dubious parentage" ? care to expand, or is that just playground politics? |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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So in easy terms as I'm politically inept. Has may called an election cos she's realised she's not up for the job?
Been travelling all day. So only just read it.
PTU xxx |
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By *andemanMan
over a year ago
bedforshire |
"All depends on what the key issues emerge and the level of personality Politics plays.
May (who i think is a lying and hesitant person of dubious parentage) can command some statesmanship credentials and people do want a goverment run by competent people.
JC has integrety and compassion but is shamboloc in his leadership style.
Farron is untested (but we could get an "I agree with Nick Moment)
Sturgen actually stands best of the main players competent trustworthy and carring. (no matter what the reality this is how she comes accross).
Ukip are a shambles and Nuttle is Nuts. I really do not see them going anywhere accept backwards.
The first big indicator will be the local elections that now take on a much bigger importance. These have been predicted for some time to be a big LibDem win. If that happens a month before the General Election it could have a major impact on the LibDem General Election proformance. And that could change everything.
"dubious parentage" ? care to expand, or is that just playground politics?"
No i thik she is a bastard! But that is normally applied to men. |
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"If lib and green voters have their heads screwed on they'll vote Labour..... if."
Labour stands no chance while Corbyn is leader.
The best solution would be for anti BREXITERS to vote, regardless of party, for the candidate most likely to oppose BREXIT. Unfortunately, with Corbyn as leader, I simply could not vote Labour with a clear conscience. I will be voting LibDem this time. |
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"OK I'll put my head on the chopping block.
Tories 365.
Labour 169.
SNP 48.
Lib Dem 42.
UKIP 3.
Green 1.
PC. 3.
NI mix 18.
Tory majority 80.
Where do I get that lot from?
Nowhere really just gut feeling based on a few indicators.
Firstly while the polls show a huge lead for the Tories I think that during a campaign some of it will be pegged back but I still expect them to make significant gains.
Labour will have considerable losses in England but I think they will claw back a few of their Scottish seats from last time which is reflected in the SNP's losses.
The Lib Dems will do quite well. Even as a Brexit supporter I have to concede that many remainers will jump into their camp.
UKIP are pretty much an unknown quantity this time. Many of their supporters will think "job done" and defect back to the Tories. However they could still pull a surprise or two out of the hat, especially in some northern seats where disgruntled traditional Labour voters could match up with tactical voting Tories to nick them a few seats.
Whatever the result it will be a very interesting campaign.
"
I think that is good and probably correct analysis unless the anti-BREXIT vote coalesces around the LibDems which while possible, and I personally hope it happens, I'm not holding my breath. |
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