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Rutger Bregman
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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago
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Has anyone heard or listened to this chap before? Very interesting views from him.
Just found the BBC newsnight clip of him proclaiming that people tend to underestimate how kind others are, and his discussion with the guardian's Owen Jones here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LsutNKH7KiE
Following on from the video, anyone have any views on UBI and why nothing good sprung from the last 'moment of crisis' in 2008? |
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Universal Basic Income is something that will have to be brought in sooner or later.
Drivers will be replaced with self driving vehicles. Warehouse workers are being replaced by Amazon already and others will follow suit. Journalists are being replaced by computer programs the last few years. Paralegals are being pushed out by software. Accountants are under serious threat as well. McDonalds are replacing workers with automated kiosks.
Amazon are replacing retail staff with fully automated stores. In China theyve launched fully automated factories that increase productivity and reduce defects. IBMs Watson is already a better diagnostician and recommends better treatments in many cases.
And the idea that there'll be enough jobs maintaining software and machines to replace the millions of jobs lost is ridiculous.
We're going to see double digit unemployment and it will only increase from there so the only way that people will survive is UBI. |
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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago
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"Universal Basic Income is something that will have to be brought in sooner or later.
Drivers will be replaced with self driving vehicles. Warehouse workers are being replaced by Amazon already and others will follow suit. Journalists are being replaced by computer programs the last few years. Paralegals are being pushed out by software. Accountants are under serious threat as well. McDonalds are replacing workers with automated kiosks.
Amazon are replacing retail staff with fully automated stores. In China theyve launched fully automated factories that increase productivity and reduce defects. IBMs Watson is already a better diagnostician and recommends better treatments in many cases.
And the idea that there'll be enough jobs maintaining software and machines to replace the millions of jobs lost is ridiculous.
We're going to see double digit unemployment and it will only increase from there so the only way that people will survive is UBI."
Nail on the head  |
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By *LCCCouple
over a year ago
Cambridge |
"Universal Basic Income is something that will have to be brought in sooner or later.
Drivers will be replaced with self driving vehicles. Warehouse workers are being replaced by Amazon already and others will follow suit. Journalists are being replaced by computer programs the last few years. Paralegals are being pushed out by software. Accountants are under serious threat as well. McDonalds are replacing workers with automated kiosks.
Amazon are replacing retail staff with fully automated stores. In China theyve launched fully automated factories that increase productivity and reduce defects. IBMs Watson is already a better diagnostician and recommends better treatments in many cases.
And the idea that there'll be enough jobs maintaining software and machines to replace the millions of jobs lost is ridiculous.
We're going to see double digit unemployment and it will only increase from there so the only way that people will survive is UBI."
Dont be so silly, Brexit will save us!  |
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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago
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"Universal Basic Income is something that will have to be brought in sooner or later.
Drivers will be replaced with self driving vehicles. Warehouse workers are being replaced by Amazon already and others will follow suit. Journalists are being replaced by computer programs the last few years. Paralegals are being pushed out by software. Accountants are under serious threat as well. McDonalds are replacing workers with automated kiosks.
Amazon are replacing retail staff with fully automated stores. In China theyve launched fully automated factories that increase productivity and reduce defects. IBMs Watson is already a better diagnostician and recommends better treatments in many cases.
And the idea that there'll be enough jobs maintaining software and machines to replace the millions of jobs lost is ridiculous.
We're going to see double digit unemployment and it will only increase from there so the only way that people will survive is UBI.
Dont be so silly, Brexit will save us! "
Lets try and keep Brexit out of this thread for a while.
I know it's a huge national issue, but lets face it, the need for UBI and many of the issues the modern and developing world are about to face will far overshadow trump and brexit. They will at best post-phone or forward these events a few years. |
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By *mmabluTV/TS
over a year ago
upton wirral |
"Universal Basic Income is something that will have to be brought in sooner or later.
Drivers will be replaced with self driving vehicles. Warehouse workers are being replaced by Amazon already and others will follow suit. Journalists are being replaced by computer programs the last few years. Paralegals are being pushed out by software. Accountants are under serious threat as well. McDonalds are replacing workers with automated kiosks.
Amazon are replacing retail staff with fully automated stores. In China theyve launched fully automated factories that increase productivity and reduce defects. IBMs Watson is already a better diagnostician and recommends better treatments in many cases.
And the idea that there'll be enough jobs maintaining software and machines to replace the millions of jobs lost is ridiculous.
We're going to see double digit unemployment and it will only increase from there so the only way that people will survive is UBI."
Where does the UBI come from then?Money is payed out by people paying in simple it is all futuristic nonsense and interlectual crap |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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Maybe Keynes can have his dream after all. This is what we all need to live again... Freedom from "productivity" and materialism.
I can't see it happening anytime soon, the rich will pummel the poor into the ground first and the middle class second until there is no choice but revolution. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"Universal Basic Income is something that will have to be brought in sooner or later.
Drivers will be replaced with self driving vehicles. Warehouse workers are being replaced by Amazon already and others will follow suit. Journalists are being replaced by computer programs the last few years. Paralegals are being pushed out by software. Accountants are under serious threat as well. McDonalds are replacing workers with automated kiosks.
Amazon are replacing retail staff with fully automated stores. In China theyve launched fully automated factories that increase productivity and reduce defects. IBMs Watson is already a better diagnostician and recommends better treatments in many cases.
And the idea that there'll be enough jobs maintaining software and machines to replace the millions of jobs lost is ridiculous.
We're going to see double digit unemployment and it will only increase from there so the only way that people will survive is UBI.Where does the UBI come from then?Money is payed out by people paying in simple it is all futuristic nonsense and interlectual crap"
It requires slight redistribution of wealth. |
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By *mmabluTV/TS
over a year ago
upton wirral |
"Maybe Keynes can have his dream after all. This is what we all need to live again... Freedom from "productivity" and materialism.
I can't see it happening anytime soon, the rich will pummel the poor into the ground first and the middle class second until there is no choice but revolution. "
Now this I can agree with it is the future unfortunatly as society collapses and we enter a dark age |
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By *oggoneMan
over a year ago
Derry |
"Universal Basic Income is something that will have to be brought in sooner or later.
Drivers will be replaced with self driving vehicles. Warehouse workers are being replaced by Amazon already and others will follow suit. Journalists are being replaced by computer programs the last few years. Paralegals are being pushed out by software. Accountants are under serious threat as well. McDonalds are replacing workers with automated kiosks.
Amazon are replacing retail staff with fully automated stores. In China theyve launched fully automated factories that increase productivity and reduce defects. IBMs Watson is already a better diagnostician and recommends better treatments in many cases.
And the idea that there'll be enough jobs maintaining software and machines to replace the millions of jobs lost is ridiculous.
We're going to see double digit unemployment and it will only increase from there so the only way that people will survive is UBI.Where does the UBI come from then?Money is payed out by people paying in simple it is all futuristic nonsense and interlectual crap"
The most straight forward option will be a robot tax. This is the option favoured by Bill Gates and Elon Musk. Don't forget the state will also need to find a new means of raising revenue. |
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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago
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"Maybe Keynes can have his dream after all. This is what we all need to live again... Freedom from "productivity" and materialism.
I can't see it happening anytime soon, the rich will pummel the poor into the ground first and the middle class second until there is no choice but revolution. Now this I can agree with it is the future unfortunatly as society collapses and we enter a dark age"
Actually, since the renaissance moments of crisis (cultural, violent and intellectual revolutions)tend to usher in new ages where the quality of life gets better. The devastation reached usually correlates to recovery time, but usually lessons are learnt, new institutions are built and new ideas flourish.
The last true crisis was the 2008 crash, and as Rutger says here there weren't ideas on the shelf the pull us out of the mess, resentment increased as austerity became the policy, and that led to this, the anti-establishment backlash.
So the potentially lifesaving question is, how do we fix the 2008 crisis globally, and what ideas are sustainable for atleast 2 decades? |
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By *imiUKMan
over a year ago
Hereford |
"Maybe Keynes can have his dream after all. This is what we all need to live again... Freedom from "productivity" and materialism.
I can't see it happening anytime soon, the rich will pummel the poor into the ground first and the middle class second until there is no choice but revolution. Now this I can agree with it is the future unfortunatly as society collapses and we enter a dark age
Actually, since the renaissance moments of crisis (cultural, violent and intellectual revolutions)tend to usher in new ages where the quality of life gets better. The devastation reached usually correlates to recovery time, but usually lessons are learnt, new institutions are built and new ideas flourish.
The last true crisis was the 2008 crash, and as Rutger says here there weren't ideas on the shelf the pull us out of the mess, resentment increased as austerity became the policy, and that led to this, the anti-establishment backlash.
So the potentially lifesaving question is, how do we fix the 2008 crisis globally, and what ideas are sustainable for atleast 2 decades?"
Globally enforced wealth redistribution. |
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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago
|
"Maybe Keynes can have his dream after all. This is what we all need to live again... Freedom from "productivity" and materialism.
I can't see it happening anytime soon, the rich will pummel the poor into the ground first and the middle class second until there is no choice but revolution. Now this I can agree with it is the future unfortunatly as society collapses and we enter a dark age
Actually, since the renaissance moments of crisis (cultural, violent and intellectual revolutions)tend to usher in new ages where the quality of life gets better. The devastation reached usually correlates to recovery time, but usually lessons are learnt, new institutions are built and new ideas flourish.
The last true crisis was the 2008 crash, and as Rutger says here there weren't ideas on the shelf the pull us out of the mess, resentment increased as austerity became the policy, and that led to this, the anti-establishment backlash.
So the potentially lifesaving question is, how do we fix the 2008 crisis globally, and what ideas are sustainable for atleast 2 decades?
Globally enforced wealth redistribution. "
How do we enforce it, and how globally?
I can't see America, China....and North Korea agreeing to it :P |
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By *imiUKMan
over a year ago
Hereford |
"Maybe Keynes can have his dream after all. This is what we all need to live again... Freedom from "productivity" and materialism.
I can't see it happening anytime soon, the rich will pummel the poor into the ground first and the middle class second until there is no choice but revolution. Now this I can agree with it is the future unfortunatly as society collapses and we enter a dark age
Actually, since the renaissance moments of crisis (cultural, violent and intellectual revolutions)tend to usher in new ages where the quality of life gets better. The devastation reached usually correlates to recovery time, but usually lessons are learnt, new institutions are built and new ideas flourish.
The last true crisis was the 2008 crash, and as Rutger says here there weren't ideas on the shelf the pull us out of the mess, resentment increased as austerity became the policy, and that led to this, the anti-establishment backlash.
So the potentially lifesaving question is, how do we fix the 2008 crisis globally, and what ideas are sustainable for atleast 2 decades?
Globally enforced wealth redistribution.
How do we enforce it, and how globally?
I can't see America, China....and North Korea agreeing to it :P"
You'd be surprised at how once insurmountable empires can crumble with a slight push, when that push is timed correctly, commrade. |
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By *andS66Couple
over a year ago
Derby |
As it is Universal Basic Income, does that mean everybody is entitled to it?
I can't see that working tbh.
Already we have a growing number of people that want to restrict access to the NHS, child allowance, and other universal benefits, making them means tested.
We have the younger generation vilifying the level of pensions that people get.
What level would you set UBI? At the minimum living wage? Or lower? In which case what good would it do? And if everyone got it would that not just fuel inflation, and divide even further the 'haves and have nots'?
Until people who are less well off stop trying to take away the benefits that all are eligible for from the better off people, UBI wouldn't work.
Whilst at the same time, those that are better off should also do more for those that are less well off.
Having said all that, I do agree that we need to do something for the future when robots and the like are doing more and more, and more of us become unemployed.
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"Maybe Keynes can have his dream after all. This is what we all need to live again... Freedom from "productivity" and materialism.
I can't see it happening anytime soon, the rich will pummel the poor into the ground first and the middle class second until there is no choice but revolution. Now this I can agree with it is the future unfortunatly as society collapses and we enter a dark age
Actually, since the renaissance moments of crisis (cultural, violent and intellectual revolutions)tend to usher in new ages where the quality of life gets better. The devastation reached usually correlates to recovery time, but usually lessons are learnt, new institutions are built and new ideas flourish.
The last true crisis was the 2008 crash, and as Rutger says here there weren't ideas on the shelf the pull us out of the mess, resentment increased as austerity became the policy, and that led to this, the anti-establishment backlash.
So the potentially lifesaving question is, how do we fix the 2008 crisis globally, and what ideas are sustainable for atleast 2 decades?"
I can't remember the name but there is a book I've been meaning to get about the 4 stages of attitude/culture that tend to be cyclic and catalysed by crisises (or a lack of them).
I think the swing to alt right will bring in a new type of crisis, we'll suffer through for a few years and if it is deep enough it will hopefully usher in positive change.
There are resources to give an OK quality of life to all humans right now but greed prevents it. |
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For UBI its easier to see how it would work if you look at the situation of a ~95% reduction in the work force which is the logical endpoint. Ill take America as an example because theyve got the most financial data easily available.
Today he corporate tax rate is 34%, income tax is ~30% depending on how much you earn. And employers pay ~7.5% in FICA/medicare.
If UBI is in place and a ~95% drop in work force due to automation then you've got a dramatic reduction in costs for everyone. Government costs drop hugely. Say 85% of government employees are no longer needed (probably on the lower level of reduction), they don't need to own or maintain buildings and land of the same size, provide lunches/coffee, printers, printing ink etc. etc. Automating large sections of the government suddenly drops the amount needed in taxes dramatically. So all that money can now go towards UBI.
Employers pay between 45% and 55% (on average, it varies massively) on wages. So those costs drop substantially, and also get the savings that dropping employees creates. And as we've seen from automation so far a 300% increase in efficiency is on the lower end of what we can expect (8 hour day becomes 24 hours because machines dont sleep, plus theres reduction in mistakes and most will be able to add capacity easily as well) .
So the American government could actually significantly increase taxes and employers will still be able to increase their profits despite this.
The US government takes in $3.7 Trillion in income and payroll taxes last year. As Ibsaid mentioned thats a tax of about 40% of an employees wages once you add in the employer taxes (FICA etc.). So you can double that tax take to 80% and employers still make an extra profit of 20% on top of their regular profits (we'll say the land, building, printers, coffee expenses etc. balance out the maintenance cost of the machines to keep the math simple.)
So the Americans just added an extra $3.7 Trillion to its tax take. In total in 2016 the government will collect $7.1 Trillion from all sources. So in total thats $10.8 Trillion.
That means the US could give every citizen $25,000 per annum (tax free) and will have $2.8 trillion left over to run the government and thats giving comoanies a very generous increase in their profits (the 20% of the wage bill thats no longer being taxed).
$25,000 tax free would be about ~$33,000 in wages before tax depending on the state youre in. Might not sound like a lot, but we should also see prices decrease for 2 reasons. 1 is increased efficiency, other costs and increased production hours per day will mean costs should come down. The cost decreases will be very, very significant.
The other is that regular profits + 20% wage savings means companies will be making supernormal profits and thats never sustainable. In order to gain market share companies will reduce prices voluntarily unless they can start an illegal cartel. Which is something the government will still have to police. So your $25,000 will go a lot further than $25,000 will today. And thats without working a single second of the year. |
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By *andS66Couple
over a year ago
Derby |
"For UBI its easier to see how it would work if you look at the situation of a ~95% reduction in the work force which is the logical endpoint. Ill take America as an example because theyve got the most financial data easily available.
Today he corporate tax rate is 34%, income tax is ~30% depending on how much you earn. And employers pay ~7.5% in FICA/medicare.
If UBI is in place and a ~95% drop in work force due to automation then you've got a dramatic reduction in costs for everyone. Government costs drop hugely. Say 85% of government employees are no longer needed (probably on the lower level of reduction), they don't need to own or maintain buildings and land of the same size, provide lunches/coffee, printers, printing ink etc. etc. Automating large sections of the government suddenly drops the amount needed in taxes dramatically. So all that money can now go towards UBI.
Employers pay between 45% and 55% (on average, it varies massively) on wages. So those costs drop substantially, and also get the savings that dropping employees creates. And as we've seen from automation so far a 300% increase in efficiency is on the lower end of what we can expect (8 hour day becomes 24 hours because machines dont sleep, plus theres reduction in mistakes and most will be able to add capacity easily as well) .
So the American government could actually significantly increase taxes and employers will still be able to increase their profits despite this.
The US government takes in $3.7 Trillion in income and payroll taxes last year. As Ibsaid mentioned thats a tax of about 40% of an employees wages once you add in the employer taxes (FICA etc.). So you can double that tax take to 80% and employers still make an extra profit of 20% on top of their regular profits (we'll say the land, building, printers, coffee expenses etc. balance out the maintenance cost of the machines to keep the math simple.)
So the Americans just added an extra $3.7 Trillion to its tax take. In total in 2016 the government will collect $7.1 Trillion from all sources. So in total thats $10.8 Trillion.
That means the US could give every citizen $25,000 per annum (tax free) and will have $2.8 trillion left over to run the government and thats giving comoanies a very generous increase in their profits (the 20% of the wage bill thats no longer being taxed).
$25,000 tax free would be about ~$33,000 in wages before tax depending on the state youre in. Might not sound like a lot, but we should also see prices decrease for 2 reasons. 1 is increased efficiency, other costs and increased production hours per day will mean costs should come down. The cost decreases will be very, very significant.
The other is that regular profits + 20% wage savings means companies will be making supernormal profits and thats never sustainable. In order to gain market share companies will reduce prices voluntarily unless they can start an illegal cartel. Which is something the government will still have to police. So your $25,000 will go a lot further than $25,000 will today. And thats without working a single second of the year."
A great theory. |
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