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Mervyn king: Post-Brexit Britain will thrive, outside the single market
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By *oi_LucyCouple
over a year ago
Barbados |
I doubt any leavers will take any notice of him though. After all he is an 'expert' and failed to predict northern rock, rbs or 2008 problems.
And he is only saying we should leave the customs union and single market. Which is apparently what all the leavers understood the referendum to mean anyway. So nothing new there. Half of May's cabinet had other ideas, but I'm sure she'll whip them into line.
-Matt |
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By *oo hotCouple
over a year ago
North West |
Everyone is entitled to an opinion but a couple of things to remember...
The great financial crash of 2008 happened on his watch and he had not seen it coming and was unprepared (albeit he did react well)
He has only stated what is true, that there will be opportunities - but it won't be a bed of roses. If he is wrong, he can very easily say that the opportunities were there, but British business didn't take them.
Amongst credible economists, he is in a very small minority expecting a painless Brexit. We all don't have long to wait now anyway. If A50 is triggered in March we will see how the GBP responds at that time. If the Brexit effect has already been factored in, it should not fall much more but if it does fall further and dramatically, it will be very bad news for the UK and everyone who is paid in GBP. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"Everyone is entitled to an opinion but a couple of things to remember...
The great financial crash of 2008 happened on his watch and he had not seen it coming and was unprepared (albeit he did react well)
He has only stated what is true, that there will be opportunities - but it won't be a bed of roses. If he is wrong, he can very easily say that the opportunities were there, but British business didn't take them.
Amongst credible economists, he is in a very small minority expecting a painless Brexit. We all don't have long to wait now anyway. If A50 is triggered in March we will see how the GBP responds at that time. If the Brexit effect has already been factored in, it should not fall much more but if it does fall further and dramatically, it will be very bad news for the UK and everyone who is paid in GBP."
It is tipped to fall anywhere between 1.05-1.18 as soon as Article 50 is triggered but then rise to about 1.30 by the end of the year if the U.S don't raise interest rates again and Brexit fatigue sets in and then rise to 1.45 by the end of 2018 |
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"Everyone is entitled to an opinion but a couple of things to remember...
The great financial crash of 2008 happened on his watch and he had not seen it coming and was unprepared (albeit he did react well)
He has only stated what is true, that there will be opportunities - but it won't be a bed of roses. If he is wrong, he can very easily say that the opportunities were there, but British business didn't take them.
Amongst credible economists, he is in a very small minority expecting a painless Brexit. We all don't have long to wait now anyway. If A50 is triggered in March we will see how the GBP responds at that time. If the Brexit effect has already been factored in, it should not fall much more but if it does fall further and dramatically, it will be very bad news for the UK and everyone who is paid in GBP.
It is tipped to fall anywhere between 1.05-1.18 as soon as Article 50 is triggered but then rise to about 1.30 by the end of the year if the U.S don't raise interest rates again and Brexit fatigue sets in and then rise to 1.45 by the end of 2018"
I think everyone expects it to dip when article 50 is triggered but as you say it will recover. I posted on another thread about a poll from the Institute of Directors which was published in yesterday's newspapers. It shows business confidence has now returned to the same levels seen before the Brexit vote last June. Just 15% of business leaders expect to be worse off next year, while 60% expect a windfall with higher revenues and profitability. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
"Everyone is entitled to an opinion but a couple of things to remember...
The great financial crash of 2008 happened on his watch and he had not seen it coming and was unprepared (albeit he did react well)
He has only stated what is true, that there will be opportunities - but it won't be a bed of roses. If he is wrong, he can very easily say that the opportunities were there, but British business didn't take them.
Amongst credible economists, he is in a very small minority expecting a painless Brexit. We all don't have long to wait now anyway. If A50 is triggered in March we will see how the GBP responds at that time. If the Brexit effect has already been factored in, it should not fall much more but if it does fall further and dramatically, it will be very bad news for the UK and everyone who is paid in GBP.
It is tipped to fall anywhere between 1.05-1.18 as soon as Article 50 is triggered but then rise to about 1.30 by the end of the year if the U.S don't raise interest rates again and Brexit fatigue sets in and then rise to 1.45 by the end of 2018
I think everyone expects it to dip when article 50 is triggered but as you say it will recover. I posted on another thread about a poll from the Institute of Directors which was published in yesterday's newspapers. It shows business confidence has now returned to the same levels seen before the Brexit vote last June. Just 15% of business leaders expect to be worse off next year, while 60% expect a windfall with higher revenues and profitability. "
and once free of the single market things will only get better  |
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By *oi_LucyCouple
over a year ago
Barbados |
"Everyone is entitled to an opinion but a couple of things to remember...
The great financial crash of 2008 happened on his watch and he had not seen it coming and was unprepared (albeit he did react well)
He has only stated what is true, that there will be opportunities - but it won't be a bed of roses. If he is wrong, he can very easily say that the opportunities were there, but British business didn't take them.
Amongst credible economists, he is in a very small minority expecting a painless Brexit. We all don't have long to wait now anyway. If A50 is triggered in March we will see how the GBP responds at that time. If the Brexit effect has already been factored in, it should not fall much more but if it does fall further and dramatically, it will be very bad news for the UK and everyone who is paid in GBP.
It is tipped to fall anywhere between 1.05-1.18 as soon as Article 50 is triggered but then rise to about 1.30 by the end of the year if the U.S don't raise interest rates again and Brexit fatigue sets in and then rise to 1.45 by the end of 2018
I think everyone expects it to dip when article 50 is triggered but as you say it will recover. I posted on another thread about a poll from the Institute of Directors which was published in yesterday's newspapers. It shows business confidence has now returned to the same levels seen before the Brexit vote last June. Just 15% of business leaders expect to be worse off next year, while 60% expect a windfall with higher revenues and profitability.
and once free of the single market things will only get better "
I love you optimisim in this. I just wish I could understand the reasoning behind it. I still don't understand why there will be inherently more trade volume/value when we leave the single market. Everything I see about it says that there are these foreign lands who we can now trade with, like we haven't already been trading with them. China, the US, Australia etc. We already trade with them. Albeit with red tape and tariffs and custom etc. Yet, somehow leaving the single market and leaving one bloc of free trade and imposing customs and tarrifs etc on them, to seek another further away is somehow 'better'. I just don't understand it. Jut today I saw a report of however many billion we will supposedly get in trade from afar, but even that report acknowledged that they hadn't figure the loss of trade from the EU into their figures.
-Matt |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
I'm one of the 20 odd percent who didn't vote!.
From what I see on a day to day basis while taking to people is pretty much everybody thought there was too much immigration and that levels had to be brought down and after Camerons negotiations with the EU they regrettably concluded that would only be possible outside of the EU.
I'm pretty sure had successive governments of both colours made attempts to do that for the last 16 years we wouldn't be in the predicament were in now..... Predicaments and problems are two different things, one has solutions and the other you just have to live with |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
"Everyone is entitled to an opinion but a couple of things to remember...
The great financial crash of 2008 happened on his watch and he had not seen it coming and was unprepared (albeit he did react well)
He has only stated what is true, that there will be opportunities - but it won't be a bed of roses. If he is wrong, he can very easily say that the opportunities were there, but British business didn't take them.
Amongst credible economists, he is in a very small minority expecting a painless Brexit. We all don't have long to wait now anyway. If A50 is triggered in March we will see how the GBP responds at that time. If the Brexit effect has already been factored in, it should not fall much more but if it does fall further and dramatically, it will be very bad news for the UK and everyone who is paid in GBP.
It is tipped to fall anywhere between 1.05-1.18 as soon as Article 50 is triggered but then rise to about 1.30 by the end of the year if the U.S don't raise interest rates again and Brexit fatigue sets in and then rise to 1.45 by the end of 2018
I think everyone expects it to dip when article 50 is triggered but as you say it will recover. I posted on another thread about a poll from the Institute of Directors which was published in yesterday's newspapers. It shows business confidence has now returned to the same levels seen before the Brexit vote last June. Just 15% of business leaders expect to be worse off next year, while 60% expect a windfall with higher revenues and profitability.
and once free of the single market things will only get better
I love you optimisim in this. I just wish I could understand the reasoning behind it. I still don't understand why there will be inherently more trade volume/value when we leave the single market. Everything I see about it says that there are these foreign lands who we can now trade with, like we haven't already been trading with them. China, the US, Australia etc. We already trade with them. Albeit with red tape and tariffs and custom etc. Yet, somehow leaving the single market and leaving one bloc of free trade and imposing customs and tarrifs etc on them, to seek another further away is somehow 'better'. I just don't understand it. Jut today I saw a report of however many billion we will supposedly get in trade from afar, but even that report acknowledged that they hadn't figure the loss of trade from the EU into their figures.
-Matt"
I take it you didn't read 'The myth and paradox of the single market' which I suggested in another thread? No matter, apart from that there are other reasons, the EU would damage their own trade too if they imposed tariffs, they won't do that. Pretty soon the EU will have to lower/remove tariffs to all anyway to remain competetive, thats the way the world is going. And as the EU takes up a smaller percentage of our trade each year anyway it makes sense to be able to trade more freely with our faster growing markets, the sooner the better |
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By *oi_LucyCouple
over a year ago
Barbados |
"Everyone is entitled to an opinion but a couple of things to remember...
The great financial crash of 2008 happened on his watch and he had not seen it coming and was unprepared (albeit he did react well)
He has only stated what is true, that there will be opportunities - but it won't be a bed of roses. If he is wrong, he can very easily say that the opportunities were there, but British business didn't take them.
Amongst credible economists, he is in a very small minority expecting a painless Brexit. We all don't have long to wait now anyway. If A50 is triggered in March we will see how the GBP responds at that time. If the Brexit effect has already been factored in, it should not fall much more but if it does fall further and dramatically, it will be very bad news for the UK and everyone who is paid in GBP.
It is tipped to fall anywhere between 1.05-1.18 as soon as Article 50 is triggered but then rise to about 1.30 by the end of the year if the U.S don't raise interest rates again and Brexit fatigue sets in and then rise to 1.45 by the end of 2018
I think everyone expects it to dip when article 50 is triggered but as you say it will recover. I posted on another thread about a poll from the Institute of Directors which was published in yesterday's newspapers. It shows business confidence has now returned to the same levels seen before the Brexit vote last June. Just 15% of business leaders expect to be worse off next year, while 60% expect a windfall with higher revenues and profitability.
and once free of the single market things will only get better
I love you optimisim in this. I just wish I could understand the reasoning behind it. I still don't understand why there will be inherently more trade volume/value when we leave the single market. Everything I see about it says that there are these foreign lands who we can now trade with, like we haven't already been trading with them. China, the US, Australia etc. We already trade with them. Albeit with red tape and tariffs and custom etc. Yet, somehow leaving the single market and leaving one bloc of free trade and imposing customs and tarrifs etc on them, to seek another further away is somehow 'better'. I just don't understand it. Jut today I saw a report of however many billion we will supposedly get in trade from afar, but even that report acknowledged that they hadn't figure the loss of trade from the EU into their figures.
-Matt
I take it you didn't read 'The myth and paradox of the single market' which I suggested in another thread? No matter, apart from that there are other reasons, the EU would damage their own trade too if they imposed tariffs, they won't do that. Pretty soon the EU will have to lower/remove tariffs to all anyway to remain competetive, thats the way the world is going. And as the EU takes up a smaller percentage of our trade each year anyway it makes sense to be able to trade more freely with our faster growing markets, the sooner the better"
OK, cheers that makes sense. I must have missed that link whilst I was scoffing turkey
‘PPI offered borrowers protection that on closer inspection proved to be illusory, and at disproportionate cost. The evidence shows that the same might well be said of the Single Market.’
Oh crumbs... does that mean I'm going to be receiving sms messages for the next 10 years "Were you sold a single market? Call us to claim your compensation"
-Matt |
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By *oi_LucyCouple
over a year ago
Barbados |
"I'm one of the 20 odd percent who didn't vote!.
From what I see on a day to day basis while taking to people is pretty much everybody thought there was too much immigration and that levels had to be brought down and after Camerons negotiations with the EU they regrettably concluded that would only be possible outside of the EU.
I'm pretty sure had successive governments of both colours made attempts to do that for the last 16 years we wouldn't be in the predicament were in now..... Predicaments and problems are two different things, one has solutions and the other you just have to live with"
But that was part of the problem. Leavers thought that around 20% of the UK population is EU migrants when the reality is the figure is around 5%.
The public perception of the situation in many cases does not reflect the reality of the situation. That is influencing the decisions people are making and the views they have. This is then further stoked by right wing media and politicians making inflammatory and misleading remarks.
-Matt |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
"
But that was part of the problem. Leavers thought that around 20% of the UK population is EU migrants when the reality is the figure is around 5%.
The public perception of the situation in many cases does not reflect the reality of the situation. That is influencing the decisions people are making and the views they have. This is then further stoked by right wing media and politicians making inflammatory and misleading remarks.
-Matt"
.
Your wrong....they didn't look at any figures at all.
They made it on everyday perceptions of what they "felt". |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
"Bit of a slap-down to the hysterical warnings of doom provided at every opportunity by King's successor, even if a bit late in coming.
I wonder if Carnage will be allowed to serve his full term."
Mr King is as unreliable as the rest of the economic "experts."
As said on another thread, the study of economics is a social science. There are far too many factors at play to make accurate predictions. |
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By *oo hotCouple
over a year ago
North West |
"
It is tipped to fall anywhere between 1.05-1.18 as soon as Article 50 is triggered but then rise to about 1.30 by the end of the year if the U.S don't raise interest rates again and Brexit fatigue sets in and then rise to 1.45 by the end of 2018"
Where have you got this information from? Which expert source have you consulted? On what basis would the GBP rise 20% against the USD during the time it is conducting Brexit negotiations at the same time as the US is in its list Trump honeymoon period? Not to mention that the US is in an interest rate raising period, rather than interest rate cutting.
Currency forecasters in the US are predicting a very strong USD against GBP for as far ahead as the market can realistically see. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
Media works both ways, you've got right wing v left wing.
.
As a rule of thumb where immigration is high, they voted leave, where it's low they voted remain, where it's cosmopolitan they voted remain.
No country in the world that is subject to unlimited unregulated immigration is any different... It's your basic evolutionary trait |
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"I'm one of the 20 odd percent who didn't vote!.
From what I see on a day to day basis while taking to people is pretty much everybody thought there was too much immigration and that levels had to be brought down and after Camerons negotiations with the EU they regrettably concluded that would only be possible outside of the EU.
I'm pretty sure had successive governments of both colours made attempts to do that for the last 16 years we wouldn't be in the predicament were in now..... Predicaments and problems are two different things, one has solutions and the other you just have to live with
But that was part of the problem. Leavers thought that around 20% of the UK population is EU migrants when the reality is the figure is around 5%.
The public perception of the situation in many cases does not reflect the reality of the situation. That is influencing the decisions people are making and the views they have. This is then further stoked by right wing media and politicians making inflammatory and misleading remarks.
-Matt"
How do you know what leavers thought? Have spoken to all 17.5 million? No then you don't know what all leavers thought. The open border policy of the EU is playing into the hands of the terrorists IMO. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
"
It is tipped to fall anywhere between 1.05-1.18 as soon as Article 50 is triggered but then rise to about 1.30 by the end of the year if the U.S don't raise interest rates again and Brexit fatigue sets in and then rise to 1.45 by the end of 2018
Where have you got this information from? Which expert source have you consulted? On what basis would the GBP rise 20% against the USD during the time it is conducting Brexit negotiations at the same time as the US is in its list Trump honeymoon period? Not to mention that the US is in an interest rate raising period, rather than interest rate cutting.
Currency forecasters in the US are predicting a very strong USD against GBP for as far ahead as the market can realistically see."
I forget where I saw 1.45 but I'm sure it can be found.
Lloyds predict 1.31 by Q4 2017 and Barclays 1.30 |
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By *oi_LucyCouple
over a year ago
Barbados |
"I'm one of the 20 odd percent who didn't vote!.
From what I see on a day to day basis while taking to people is pretty much everybody thought there was too much immigration and that levels had to be brought down and after Camerons negotiations with the EU they regrettably concluded that would only be possible outside of the EU.
I'm pretty sure had successive governments of both colours made attempts to do that for the last 16 years we wouldn't be in the predicament were in now..... Predicaments and problems are two different things, one has solutions and the other you just have to live with
But that was part of the problem. Leavers thought that around 20% of the UK population is EU migrants when the reality is the figure is around 5%.
The public perception of the situation in many cases does not reflect the reality of the situation. That is influencing the decisions people are making and the views they have. This is then further stoked by right wing media and politicians making inflammatory and misleading remarks.
-Matt
How do you know what leavers thought? Have spoken to all 17.5 million? No then you don't know what all leavers thought. The open border policy of the EU is playing into the hands of the terrorists IMO."
No of course I've not spoken to all of them, I'm basing this on the various polls that have been done.
I still find it strange that people think that the border policy would affect terrorism in some meaningful way. Someone recently said about the Berlin truck incident and how he was able to get from Germany to France to Italy 'because of EU open borders'. Notwithstanding putting a physical barrier between every country and strict checkpoints there (e.g. like we used to have between Ireland and the UK) I'm not quite sure what they expect to happen. Maybe Trump's Mexicans can build it when they finish his wall?
-Matt |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
"
No of course I've not spoken to all of them, I'm basing this on the various polls that have been done.
-Matt"
Do you really still have faith in polls?  |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
"
No of course I've not spoken to all of them, I'm basing this on the various polls that have been done.
-Matt
Do you really still have faith in polls? "
Leavers thought it was 20% because they are all thick don't you know?
I wonder what the poll findings are for Remainers? |
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"I'm one of the 20 odd percent who didn't vote!.
From what I see on a day to day basis while taking to people is pretty much everybody thought there was too much immigration and that levels had to be brought down and after Camerons negotiations with the EU they regrettably concluded that would only be possible outside of the EU.
I'm pretty sure had successive governments of both colours made attempts to do that for the last 16 years we wouldn't be in the predicament were in now..... Predicaments and problems are two different things, one has solutions and the other you just have to live with
But that was part of the problem. Leavers thought that around 20% of the UK population is EU migrants when the reality is the figure is around 5%.
The public perception of the situation in many cases does not reflect the reality of the situation. That is influencing the decisions people are making and the views they have. This is then further stoked by right wing media and politicians making inflammatory and misleading remarks.
-Matt
How do you know what leavers thought? Have spoken to all 17.5 million? No then you don't know what all leavers thought. The open border policy of the EU is playing into the hands of the terrorists IMO.
No of course I've not spoken to all of them, I'm basing this on the various polls that have been done.
I still find it strange that people think that the border policy would affect terrorism in some meaningful way. Someone recently said about the Berlin truck incident and how he was able to get from Germany to France to Italy 'because of EU open borders'. Notwithstanding putting a physical barrier between every country and strict checkpoints there (e.g. like we used to have between Ireland and the UK) I'm not quite sure what they expect to happen. Maybe Trump's Mexicans can build it when they finish his wall?
-Matt"
Why not have passport checks at borders? The Shengen zone pretty much crumbled during the height of the migrant crisis anyway, with various countries erecting barbed wire fences and reintroducing borer controls. Seems a sensible thing to do when there is a heightened security threat or a known wanted terrorist is at large after committing a terrorist atrocity. The Tunisian terrorist who committed the crime in the truck in Berlin would have been stopped and arrested at the French border. |
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By *oi_LucyCouple
over a year ago
Barbados |
"
No of course I've not spoken to all of them, I'm basing this on the various polls that have been done.
-Matt
Do you really still have faith in polls?
Leavers thought it was 20% because they are all thick don't you know?
I wonder what the poll findings are for Remainers?"
In the poll I read it was something like 10% for remainers.
-Matt |
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By *oi_LucyCouple
over a year ago
Barbados |
"
No of course I've not spoken to all of them, I'm basing this on the various polls that have been done.
-Matt
Do you really still have faith in polls? "
Fair point. I have less faith in polls now, certainly. Especially on close-run topics. But I think something like this I would believe the sentiment of. Or put another way, are there any polls that show that the public believe the number of EU migrants in the U.K. is *less* than the actual figure?
-Matt |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
"
No of course I've not spoken to all of them, I'm basing this on the various polls that have been done.
-Matt
Do you really still have faith in polls?
Fair point. I have less faith in polls now, certainly. Especially on close-run topics. But I think something like this I would believe the sentiment of. Or put another way, are there any polls that show that the public believe the number of EU migrants in the U.K. is *less* than the actual figure?
-Matt"
You would have to do a poll.
And you know how reliable they are. I hope. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
"
No of course I've not spoken to all of them, I'm basing this on the various polls that have been done.
-Matt
Do you really still have faith in polls?
Leavers thought it was 20% because they are all thick don't you know?
I wonder what the poll findings are for Remainers?
In the poll I read it was something like 10% for remainers.
-Matt"
In polls I read 20% of remainers thought they'd never be able to go on holiday again if they voted to leave and another 20% thought a rise in roaming charges was reason enough to remain |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
"
No of course I've not spoken to all of them, I'm basing this on the various polls that have been done.
-Matt
Do you really still have faith in polls?
Leavers thought it was 20% because they are all thick don't you know?
I wonder what the poll findings are for Remainers?
In the poll I read it was something like 10% for remainers.
-Matt
In polls I read 20% of remainers thought they'd never be able to go on holiday again if they voted to leave and another 20% thought a rise in roaming charges was reason enough to remain"
And 9 out of 10 cats prefer whiskers. |
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By *oo hotCouple
over a year ago
North West |
"
It is tipped to fall anywhere between 1.05-1.18 as soon as Article 50 is triggered but then rise to about 1.30 by the end of the year if the U.S don't raise interest rates again and Brexit fatigue sets in and then rise to 1.45 by the end of 2018
Where have you got this information from? Which expert source have you consulted? On what basis would the GBP rise 20% against the USD during the time it is conducting Brexit negotiations at the same time as the US is in its list Trump honeymoon period? Not to mention that the US is in an interest rate raising period, rather than interest rate cutting.
Currency forecasters in the US are predicting a very strong USD against GBP for as far ahead as the market can realistically see.
I forget where I saw 1.45 but I'm sure it can be found.
Lloyds predict 1.31 by Q4 2017 and Barclays 1.30 "
Unless you can provide a source, I am calling bullshit on this post truth forecast. I get Barclays forex info emailed to me in daily digests and just today the digest spoke of a dire prognosis for GBP against the dollar with another three interest rate rises predicted in the US next year irrespective of any Brexit effects. |
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By *oo hotCouple
over a year ago
North West |
"
It is tipped to fall anywhere between 1.05-1.18 as soon as Article 50 is triggered but then rise to about 1.30 by the end of the year if the U.S don't raise interest rates again and Brexit fatigue sets in and then rise to 1.45 by the end of 2018
Where have you got this information from? Which expert source have you consulted? On what basis would the GBP rise 20% against the USD during the time it is conducting Brexit negotiations at the same time as the US is in its list Trump honeymoon period? Not to mention that the US is in an interest rate raising period, rather than interest rate cutting.
Currency forecasters in the US are predicting a very strong USD against GBP for as far ahead as the market can realistically see.
I forget where I saw 1.45 but I'm sure it can be found.
Lloyds predict 1.31 by Q4 2017 and Barclays 1.30
Unless you can provide a source, I am calling bullshit on this post truth forecast. I get Barclays forex info emailed to me in daily digests and just today the digest spoke of a dire prognosis for GBP against the dollar with another three interest rate rises predicted in the US next year irrespective of any Brexit effects."
The Economy Forecast Agency which is what I used in late 2015/2016 predicted that the GBP would finish the year at 1.55 in the event of a remain vote and 1.25 in the event of a Brexit vote. Decembers forecast for 2017 puts the rate down as low as 1.1 by this time next year factoring in the A50 notice and at least two interest rate rises by the Fed. Although they accept that forecasts beyond a year are complex they put the rate down to 1.05 by the end of 2018 after slipping below parity mid year.
There are no economic reasons or justifications for GBP to strengthen against the USD, however there are reasons for GBP to recover against the EURO. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"
It is tipped to fall anywhere between 1.05-1.18 as soon as Article 50 is triggered but then rise to about 1.30 by the end of the year if the U.S don't raise interest rates again and Brexit fatigue sets in and then rise to 1.45 by the end of 2018
Where have you got this information from? Which expert source have you consulted? On what basis would the GBP rise 20% against the USD during the time it is conducting Brexit negotiations at the same time as the US is in its list Trump honeymoon period? Not to mention that the US is in an interest rate raising period, rather than interest rate cutting.
Currency forecasters in the US are predicting a very strong USD against GBP for as far ahead as the market can realistically see.
I forget where I saw 1.45 but I'm sure it can be found.
Lloyds predict 1.31 by Q4 2017 and Barclays 1.30
Unless you can provide a source, I am calling bullshit on this post truth forecast. I get Barclays forex info emailed to me in daily digests and just today the digest spoke of a dire prognosis for GBP against the dollar with another three interest rate rises predicted in the US next year irrespective of any Brexit effects."
not sure I can provide links here and the interest rises are built into the predictions anyway, so ok, try Investec, they predict 1.35 by the end of 2017 |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"
It is tipped to fall anywhere between 1.05-1.18 as soon as Article 50 is triggered but then rise to about 1.30 by the end of the year if the U.S don't raise interest rates again and Brexit fatigue sets in and then rise to 1.45 by the end of 2018
Where have you got this information from? Which expert source have you consulted? On what basis would the GBP rise 20% against the USD during the time it is conducting Brexit negotiations at the same time as the US is in its list Trump honeymoon period? Not to mention that the US is in an interest rate raising period, rather than interest rate cutting.
Currency forecasters in the US are predicting a very strong USD against GBP for as far ahead as the market can realistically see.
I forget where I saw 1.45 but I'm sure it can be found.
Lloyds predict 1.31 by Q4 2017 and Barclays 1.30
Unless you can provide a source, I am calling bullshit on this post truth forecast. I get Barclays forex info emailed to me in daily digests and just today the digest spoke of a dire prognosis for GBP against the dollar with another three interest rate rises predicted in the US next year irrespective of any Brexit effects."
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The fed aren't going to raise interest rates for the foreseeable future..... It's pretty simple,They just can't afford to, they tried raising them 25 basis points awhile back and the effect was the Chinese had to take 80 people of the stock exchange and machine gun them  |
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By *oi_LucyCouple
over a year ago
Barbados |
"
No of course I've not spoken to all of them, I'm basing this on the various polls that have been done.
-Matt
Do you really still have faith in polls?
Fair point. I have less faith in polls now, certainly. Especially on close-run topics. But I think something like this I would believe the sentiment of. Or put another way, are there any polls that show that the public believe the number of EU migrants in the U.K. is *less* than the actual figure?
-Matt
You would have to do a poll.
And you know how reliable they are. I hope."
Indeed. The referendum is a very good example of how badly you can run a poll. I do hope (but doubt) that we will learn from this in the future.
-Matt |
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By *oi_LucyCouple
over a year ago
Barbados |
"
It is tipped to fall anywhere between 1.05-1.18 as soon as Article 50 is triggered but then rise to about 1.30 by the end of the year if the U.S don't raise interest rates again and Brexit fatigue sets in and then rise to 1.45 by the end of 2018
Where have you got this information from? Which expert source have you consulted? On what basis would the GBP rise 20% against the USD during the time it is conducting Brexit negotiations at the same time as the US is in its list Trump honeymoon period? Not to mention that the US is in an interest rate raising period, rather than interest rate cutting.
Currency forecasters in the US are predicting a very strong USD against GBP for as far ahead as the market can realistically see.
I forget where I saw 1.45 but I'm sure it can be found.
Lloyds predict 1.31 by Q4 2017 and Barclays 1.30
Unless you can provide a source, I am calling bullshit on this post truth forecast. I get Barclays forex info emailed to me in daily digests and just today the digest spoke of a dire prognosis for GBP against the dollar with another three interest rate rises predicted in the US next year irrespective of any Brexit effects.
not sure I can provide links here and the interest rises are built into the predictions anyway, so ok, try Investec, they predict 1.35 by the end of 2017"
Don't let hants-smiles or Centaur see you talking about predictions like that. Remember, economics is a social science and can't be used to predict anything. Didn't you get the memo?
-Matt |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"
Don't let hants-smiles or Centaur see you talking about predictions like that. Remember, economics is a social science and can't be used to predict anything. Didn't you get the memo?
-Matt"
There was no memo.
Funnily enough, there were different people quoting different sources with different results.
That is economics. |
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"Mervin King is famous for rightly predicting fuck all.....he totally dropped the ball over the sub prime mortgage fiasco..... "
Funny i thought he was famous for being the ex governor of the Bank of England. So now we have Brexiters listening to experts (in this case Mervyn King), and we have Remainers telling us not to listen to experts.  |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"Mervin King is famous for rightly predicting fuck all.....he totally dropped the ball over the sub prime mortgage fiasco.....
Funny i thought he was famous for being the ex governor of the Bank of England. So now we have Brexiters listening to experts (in this case Mervyn King), and we have Remainers telling us not to listen to experts. "
Actually, you have a Brexiter saying don't accept what any economic expert says. |
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By *anes HubbyCouple
over a year ago
Babbacombe Torquay |
"Mervin King is famous for rightly predicting fuck all.....he totally dropped the ball over the sub prime mortgage fiasco.....
Funny i thought he was famous for being the ex governor of the Bank of England. So now we have Brexiters listening to experts (in this case Mervyn King), and we have Remainers telling us not to listen to experts.
Actually, you have a Brexiter saying don't accept what any economic expert says. "
Actually you don't.....you have someone pointing out the very public failings of Melvyn King, which ultimately led to his early exit from the Governance of the Bank of England.
They brought in the Canadian because the country can't afford to have a governor so inept as King again. |
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"Mervin King is famous for rightly predicting fuck all.....he totally dropped the ball over the sub prime mortgage fiasco.....
Funny i thought he was famous for being the ex governor of the Bank of England. So now we have Brexiters listening to experts (in this case Mervyn King), and we have Remainers telling us not to listen to experts.
Actually, you have a Brexiter saying don't accept what any economic expert says.
Actually you don't.....you have someone pointing out the very public failings of Melvyn King, which ultimately led to his early exit from the Governance of the Bank of England.
They brought in the Canadian because the country can't afford to have a governor so inept as King again."
Mervyn King is firmly planted in the category of 'expert' in financial services and economics. You don't get the top job at the Bank of England unless that is the case.
As your post points out though experts have their flaws if you look at their past record, (this also includes experts who supported the Remain campaign). |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"Mervin King is famous for rightly predicting fuck all.....he totally dropped the ball over the sub prime mortgage fiasco.....
Funny i thought he was famous for being the ex governor of the Bank of England. So now we have Brexiters listening to experts (in this case Mervyn King), and we have Remainers telling us not to listen to experts.
Actually, you have a Brexiter saying don't accept what any economic expert says.
Actually you don't.....you have someone pointing out the very public failings of Melvyn King, which ultimately led to his early exit from the Governance of the Bank of England.
They brought in the Canadian because the country can't afford to have a governor so inept as King again."
Actually, you do. Not just a Remoaner picking or choosing their economic "experts." |
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By *anes HubbyCouple
over a year ago
Babbacombe Torquay |
King lost his credibility as an "expert" when he failed to listen to fellow "expert" committee members of the BOE when warned repeatably about the housing bubble, instead he chose to ignore the warnings and followed the Fed into the abyss.
In the midst of the worldwide financial crisis that followed King herded his committee into the position of dropping interest rates far too slowly over too long a period, when fast action on rates would have seen our position today far better than it is.
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By *anes HubbyCouple
over a year ago
Babbacombe Torquay |
"Mervin King is famous for rightly predicting fuck all.....he totally dropped the ball over the sub prime mortgage fiasco.....
Funny i thought he was famous for being the ex governor of the Bank of England. So now we have Brexiters listening to experts (in this case Mervyn King), and we have Remainers telling us not to listen to experts.
Actually, you have a Brexiter saying don't accept what any economic expert says.
Actually you don't.....you have someone pointing out the very public failings of Melvyn King, which ultimately led to his early exit from the Governance of the Bank of England.
They brought in the Canadian because the country can't afford to have a governor so inept as King again.
Actually, you do. Not just a Remoaner picking or choosing their economic "experts." "
I've not regarded King as a credible financial expert for over TEN years.....and I'm not alone in that.
Look at how he instigated a run on the Northern Rock.....the man isn't fit to polish Carney's boots. |
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"Mervin King is famous for rightly predicting fuck all.....he totally dropped the ball over the sub prime mortgage fiasco.....
Funny i thought he was famous for being the ex governor of the Bank of England. So now we have Brexiters listening to experts (in this case Mervyn King), and we have Remainers telling us not to listen to experts.
Actually, you have a Brexiter saying don't accept what any economic expert says.
Actually you don't.....you have someone pointing out the very public failings of Melvyn King, which ultimately led to his early exit from the Governance of the Bank of England.
They brought in the Canadian because the country can't afford to have a governor so inept as King again.
Actually, you do. Not just a Remoaner picking or choosing their economic "experts."
I've not regarded King as a credible financial expert for over TEN years.....and I'm not alone in that.
Look at how he instigated a run on the Northern Rock.....the man isn't fit to polish Carney's boots."
Sorry but Carney's credibility is also shot. He backed the Remain campaign and George Osborne's apocalyptic economic predictions during the referendum campaign. Then after the country voted Leave Mark Carney has had to make a series of humiliating climb downs and admit he 'got it wrong' and the reality of the Leave vote is not the apocalypse he thought it would be. |
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By *anes HubbyCouple
over a year ago
Babbacombe Torquay |
We haven't triggered article 50 yet.....Carney may well yet be proved totally right.
King rewrites history in a vain attempt to blame everyone but himself, speedy recapitalisation of the banks would have saved us much of the pain that has followed the banking crisis, his inept stubbornness has scarred our economy for a generation.
I'm surprised that King has the bollocks to keep giving interviews when his credibility has been so burnt. |
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"We haven't triggered article 50 yet.....Carney may well yet be proved totally right.
King rewrites history in a vain attempt to blame everyone but himself, speedy recapitalisation of the banks would have saved us much of the pain that has followed the banking crisis, his inept stubbornness has scarred our economy for a generation.
I'm surprised that King has the bollocks to keep giving interviews when his credibility has been so burnt."
Yet again the contradictions of Remainers exposed, anything bad happens "it's because of Brexit", but any counter argument bring out the line "but we haven't left yet".  |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"We haven't triggered article 50 yet.....Carney may well yet be proved totally right.
King rewrites history in a vain attempt to blame everyone but himself, speedy recapitalisation of the banks would have saved us much of the pain that has followed the banking crisis, his inept stubbornness has scarred our economy for a generation.
I'm surprised that King has the bollocks to keep giving interviews when his credibility has been so burnt."
Who knows? Was Carney predicting an exit vote? |
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By *anes HubbyCouple
over a year ago
Babbacombe Torquay |
"We haven't triggered article 50 yet.....Carney may well yet be proved totally right.
King rewrites history in a vain attempt to blame everyone but himself, speedy recapitalisation of the banks would have saved us much of the pain that has followed the banking crisis, his inept stubbornness has scarred our economy for a generation.
I'm surprised that King has the bollocks to keep giving interviews when his credibility has been so burnt.
Yet again the contradictions of Remainers exposed, anything bad happens "it's because of Brexit", but any counter argument bring out the line "but we haven't left yet". "
Well it's a fact....we haven't triggered Article 50 yet, or are you suggesting that things won't change after that date? |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"We haven't triggered article 50 yet.....Carney may well yet be proved totally right.
King rewrites history in a vain attempt to blame everyone but himself, speedy recapitalisation of the banks would have saved us much of the pain that has followed the banking crisis, his inept stubbornness has scarred our economy for a generation.
I'm surprised that King has the bollocks to keep giving interviews when his credibility has been so burnt.
Yet again the contradictions of Remainers exposed, anything bad happens "it's because of Brexit", but any counter argument bring out the line "but we haven't left yet".
Well it's a fact....we haven't triggered Article 50 yet, or are you suggesting that things won't change after that date?"
The economic experts suggest not, as it has already been factored in. But who knows? |
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By *anes HubbyCouple
over a year ago
Babbacombe Torquay |
"We haven't triggered article 50 yet.....Carney may well yet be proved totally right.
King rewrites history in a vain attempt to blame everyone but himself, speedy recapitalisation of the banks would have saved us much of the pain that has followed the banking crisis, his inept stubbornness has scarred our economy for a generation.
I'm surprised that King has the bollocks to keep giving interviews when his credibility has been so burnt.
Yet again the contradictions of Remainers exposed, anything bad happens "it's because of Brexit", but any counter argument bring out the line "but we haven't left yet".
Well it's a fact....we haven't triggered Article 50 yet, or are you suggesting that things won't change after that date?
The economic experts suggest not, as it has already been factored in. But who knows?"
Factored in?......by who? |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"We haven't triggered article 50 yet.....Carney may well yet be proved totally right.
King rewrites history in a vain attempt to blame everyone but himself, speedy recapitalisation of the banks would have saved us much of the pain that has followed the banking crisis, his inept stubbornness has scarred our economy for a generation.
I'm surprised that King has the bollocks to keep giving interviews when his credibility has been so burnt.
Yet again the contradictions of Remainers exposed, anything bad happens "it's because of Brexit", but any counter argument bring out the line "but we haven't left yet".
Well it's a fact....we haven't triggered Article 50 yet, or are you suggesting that things won't change after that date?
The economic experts suggest not, as it has already been factored in. But who knows?
Factored in?......by who?"
Well, we know that Article 50 will be triggered by March, do we not? So the financial markets have already factored that in. |
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By *anes HubbyCouple
over a year ago
Babbacombe Torquay |
"We haven't triggered article 50 yet.....Carney may well yet be proved totally right.
King rewrites history in a vain attempt to blame everyone but himself, speedy recapitalisation of the banks would have saved us much of the pain that has followed the banking crisis, his inept stubbornness has scarred our economy for a generation.
I'm surprised that King has the bollocks to keep giving interviews when his credibility has been so burnt.
Yet again the contradictions of Remainers exposed, anything bad happens "it's because of Brexit", but any counter argument bring out the line "but we haven't left yet".
Well it's a fact....we haven't triggered Article 50 yet, or are you suggesting that things won't change after that date?
The economic experts suggest not, as it has already been factored in. But who knows?
Factored in?......by who?
Well, we know that Article 50 will be triggered by March, do we not? So the financial markets have already factored that in. "
What a load of tosh..... |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"We haven't triggered article 50 yet.....Carney may well yet be proved totally right.
King rewrites history in a vain attempt to blame everyone but himself, speedy recapitalisation of the banks would have saved us much of the pain that has followed the banking crisis, his inept stubbornness has scarred our economy for a generation.
I'm surprised that King has the bollocks to keep giving interviews when his credibility has been so burnt.
Yet again the contradictions of Remainers exposed, anything bad happens "it's because of Brexit", but any counter argument bring out the line "but we haven't left yet".
Well it's a fact....we haven't triggered Article 50 yet, or are you suggesting that things won't change after that date?
The economic experts suggest not, as it has already been factored in. But who knows?
Factored in?......by who?
Well, we know that Article 50 will be triggered by March, do we not? So the financial markets have already factored that in.
What a load of tosh....."
So your economic experts have not already prepared for it? Would that not make them a little bit stoopid? |
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By *obka3Couple
over a year ago
bournemouth |
"We haven't triggered article 50 yet.....Carney may well yet be proved totally right.
King rewrites history in a vain attempt to blame everyone but himself, speedy recapitalisation of the banks would have saved us much of the pain that has followed the banking crisis, his inept stubbornness has scarred our economy for a generation.
I'm surprised that King has the bollocks to keep giving interviews when his credibility has been so burnt."
But he is an expert |
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