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Euro on the Brink

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By *entaur_UK OP   Man  over a year ago

Cannock

So the creator of the Euro currency, Professor Otmar Issing, first chief economist at the European Central Bank, (expert enough for you?) has admitted that the Euro is on the brink of collapse. He told the journal Central Banking...."one day the house of cards will collapse, it is difficult to forecast how long but it cannot go on endlessly".

Hard to imagine a more damming verdict on the single currency. Of course the ex governor of the Bank of England Mervyn King already predicted earlier in the year "the Eurozone is doomed to failure".

When the Euro goes belly up, which it inevitably will do, the EU will be finished with it.

Thank your lucky stars we have voted to get out of this monstrosity and it's impending inevitable collapse.

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By (user no longer on site)  over a year ago


"So the creator of the Euro currency, Professor Otmar Issing, first chief economist at the European Central Bank, (expert enough for you?) has admitted that the Euro is on the brink of collapse. He told the journal Central Banking...."one day the house of cards will collapse, it is difficult to forecast how long but it cannot go on endlessly".

Hard to imagine a more damming verdict on the single currency. Of course the ex governor of the Bank of England Mervyn King already predicted earlier in the year "the Eurozone is doomed to failure".

When the Euro goes belly up, which it inevitably will do, the EU will be finished with it.

Thank your lucky stars we have voted to get out of this monstrosity and it's impending inevitable collapse. "

What would be the consequences of the market? Another global recession?

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By *anes HubbyCouple  over a year ago

Babbacombe Torquay

Any collapse of the Euro will certainly impact upon both the City and British banks, it's not something I personally will get excited about, but it takes all sorts.....

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By *anes HubbyCouple  over a year ago

Babbacombe Torquay

And we never have voted to join the Euro....

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By *entaur_UK OP   Man  over a year ago

Cannock


"Any collapse of the Euro will certainly impact upon both the City and British banks, it's not something I personally will get excited about, but it takes all sorts....."

Just like it takes all sorts to get excited about the drop in the pound?

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By *anes HubbyCouple  over a year ago

Babbacombe Torquay


"Any collapse of the Euro will certainly impact upon both the City and British banks, it's not something I personally will get excited about, but it takes all sorts.....

Just like it takes all sorts to get excited about the drop in the pound? "

You seem to revel at the prospect of the Euro failing....quite why I don't understand as we have never taken the Euro as our currency, but if it gives you enjoyment then good for you.

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By *entaur_UK OP   Man  over a year ago

Cannock


"And we never have voted to join the Euro...."

But the politicians you sided with in the referendum like Nick Clegg and Peter Mandelson did want us to join the Euro. So called experts like the CBI too. Thank god people had the good sense not to listen to them. Peter Mandelson still wanted us to join the Euro as recently as 2014.

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By *anes HubbyCouple  over a year ago

Babbacombe Torquay


"And we never have voted to join the Euro....

But the politicians you sided with in the referendum like Nick Clegg and Peter Mandelson did want us to join the Euro. So called experts like the CBI too. Thank god people had the good sense not to listen to them. Peter Mandelson still wanted us to join the Euro as recently as 2014. "

But we didn't join it did we?

Why keep harping on about things that we decided not to do?, isn't it enough for you that we didn't join the Euro?.....I don't understand the joy you get from watching another currency failing, and in all likelihood impacting upon our own economy.....

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By *entaur_UK OP   Man  over a year ago

Cannock


"Any collapse of the Euro will certainly impact upon both the City and British banks, it's not something I personally will get excited about, but it takes all sorts.....

Just like it takes all sorts to get excited about the drop in the pound?

You seem to revel at the prospect of the Euro failing....quite why I don't understand as we have never taken the Euro as our currency, but if it gives you enjoyment then good for you."

Some Remainers seem to revel at the prospect of the pound failing.....quite why I don't understand as it is their own currency, but if it gives them enjoyment then good for them.

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By *anes HubbyCouple  over a year ago

Babbacombe Torquay

The only people I've seen revelling in the pound falling on these forums are you and a couple of other Brexiteers, you even started a thread about it.....It's not something you should gain enjoyment over.

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By *entaur_UK OP   Man  over a year ago

Cannock


"The only people I've seen revelling in the pound falling on these forums are you and a couple of other Brexiteers, you even started a thread about it.....It's not something you should gain enjoyment over."

You must have developed a severe case of selective reading then, it seems some Remainers revel and rejoice at every bit of economic bad news on here since June 23rd.

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By *obka3Couple  over a year ago

bournemouth

If it collapses, which it should by all normal judgements it could well drag down lots of countries with it, the fools who had this great ideal are responsible for potentially causing hardship to many millions of "normal" people not only in europe but worldwide, if it goes I think the consequences for the uk will be pretty bad

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By *ouple in LancashireCouple  over a year ago

in Lancashire

If the Euro goes tits up it will have global repercussions and we even though we are not in it will to some extent feel those effects..

it wont just be people in the EU that are affected..

beyond me that people will take pleasure in it ..

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By *isandreTV/TS  over a year ago

Durham

Are remainers revelling in the fall in the pound every time hard brexit is talked about by the three brexiteers?

I thought they were pissed off. Which is the opposite of revelling.

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By *abioMan  over a year ago

Newcastle and Gateshead

will it collapse before the pound reaches parity with the Euro....

I'll hang up and listen.....

sorry... i'm being facetious.....

after all if the euro does collapse... wont that negate all the gains for the uk exporters have gotten from the pound tanking?

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By *LCCCouple  over a year ago

Cambridge

If the Eurozone collapsed it would probably spark WWIII. The impact on the world's economy would be catastrophic and the Syrian migrant crisis will look like a stroll on the beach compared to the numbers of people that would be on the move around the globe.

It is certainly not anything anyone should wish to happen.

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By *entaur_UK OP   Man  over a year ago

Cannock


"If the Eurozone collapsed it would probably spark WWIII. The impact on the world's economy would be catastrophic and the Syrian migrant crisis will look like a stroll on the beach compared to the numbers of people that would be on the move around the globe.

It is certainly not anything anyone should wish to happen."

WWWIII, you sound more and more like a desperate David Cameron with each passing day.

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By *isandreTV/TS  over a year ago

Durham

What is the prevailing view on experts today then, Brexiters?

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By (user no longer on site)  over a year ago


"If the Eurozone collapsed it would probably spark WWIII. The impact on the world's economy would be catastrophic and the Syrian migrant crisis will look like a stroll on the beach compared to the numbers of people that would be on the move around the globe.

It is certainly not anything anyone should wish to happen.

WWWIII, you sound more and more like a desperate David Cameron with each passing day. "

and who's going to be on the move?

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By *LCCCouple  over a year ago

Cambridge


"If the Eurozone collapsed it would probably spark WWIII. The impact on the world's economy would be catastrophic and the Syrian migrant crisis will look like a stroll on the beach compared to the numbers of people that would be on the move around the globe.

It is certainly not anything anyone should wish to happen.

WWWIII, you sound more and more like a desperate David Cameron with each passing day. "

What do you think would happen if one of the world's major currencies disappeared then?

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By *at69driveMan  over a year ago

Belfast


"If the Eurozone collapsed it would probably spark WWIII. The impact on the world's economy would be catastrophic and the Syrian migrant crisis will look like a stroll on the beach compared to the numbers of people that would be on the move around the globe. If a major currency dissappeared people would still need to buy goods .

It is certainly not anything anyone should wish to happen.

WWWIII, you sound more and more like a desperate David Cameron with each passing day.

What do you think would happen if one of the world's major currencies disappeared then? "

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By *igsteve43Man  over a year ago

derby


"If the Eurozone collapsed it would probably spark WWIII. The impact on the world's economy would be catastrophic and the Syrian migrant crisis will look like a stroll on the beach compared to the numbers of people that would be on the move around the globe.

It is certainly not anything anyone should wish to happen.

WWWIII, you sound more and more like a desperate David Cameron with each passing day.

What do you think would happen if one of the world's major currencies disappeared then? "

Whatever happens it wont be ww3

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By *at69driveMan  over a year ago

Belfast


"If the Eurozone collapsed it would probably spark WWIII. The impact on the world's economy would be catastrophic and the Syrian migrant crisis will look like a stroll on the beach compared to the numbers of people that would be on the move around the globe.

It is certainly not anything anyone should wish to happen.

WWWIII, you sound more and more like a desperate David Cameron with each passing day.

What do you think would happen if one of the world's major currencies disappeared then? "

The countries concerned would still have to buy goods .

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By *LCCCouple  over a year ago

Cambridge

Some thoughts on the collapse of the Eurozone:

Werner Bonadurer, a clinical professor of finance at the W.P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University

"Such a collapse would lead to a multiyear depression in Europe and several years of recession in the U.S"

Terry Connelly, dean emeritus of the Ageno School of Business at Golden Gate University

Even worse, Connelly predicts a collapse also could destroy interbank lending worldwide. A run on banks around the world would freeze credit markets, making it difficult for businesses to borrow money. But unlike a similar crisis in the U.S. in 2008, Connelly says "there really is no road map" for saving the global banking industry because there's no single global entity that wields as much power internationally as the U.S. Federal Reserve does domestically.

Much less catastrophic and much more likely is a scenario in which some of the weaker eurozone countries such as Greece and Portugal exit the euro. It's a scenario Sagner calls "manageable."

But countries that continue to use the euro will pay a price, says Bonadurer, who estimates that even a "small-scale breakup" could destroy from 25 percent to 60 percent of gross domestic product in the stronger countries that remain with the euro.

"Banks throughout Europe and to some extent elsewhere would suffer catastrophic losses and would need to be nationalized," Bonadurer says. "There would be massive wealth destruction in the private sector. European export markets for (the stronger EU countries) would practically disappear because devaluation will make those products and services expensive and uncompetitive, and we would see huge unemployment as a result."

Vince Cable speaking in 2012 "I think we need to take stock that if the eurozone were to unravel in a way that destroyed the European project - and there is a risk that could happen - the consequences would be absolutely incalculable.

"We tend to forget, until we were reminded last week of that Nobel Prize, the European project was constructed in order to rescue Europe from extreme nationalism and conflict. There is no automatic guarantee that won't return.”

A collapse of Europe’s monetary union would likely lead to a breakup of the European Union as a whole, posing significant risks to the region and even raising the possibility of war in the long term, Poland’s Finance Minister told CNBC late on Thursday. The EU has been one of the two great pillars of European peace and security of the past 60 years," he said.

"Therefore the danger in a longer-time horizon, in 10-20 years, in the absence of one of the key elements of our security system and one of the key elements of our political system, which ensures we deal with problems in this peaceful, democratic way we've developed, the risk of all sorts of authoritarian political movements, and therefore even war, in the long horizon, rises,” he said.

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By *obka3Couple  over a year ago

bournemouth


"

Much less catastrophic and much more likely is a scenario in which some of the weaker eurozone countries such as Greece and Portugal exit the euro. It's a scenario Sagner calls "manageable."

"

So are you saying you think that will happen ?

It would appear that these experts you are very fond of are beginning to admit that the euro is a busted flush, the question appears to be how to get out of it with the minimal damage. His/your suggestion seems to be chuck the weakest to the wolves, do you not think that is very likely to cause huge unrest and anger against the strong countries that have used the weak euro to export goods. The whole financial cesspit which has made a few very wealthy on ponzi schemes is going to comeback and bite us all at some point, its not going to be pretty thats for sure, I am seriously thinking of taking my savings and buying gold

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By *tillup4funMan  over a year ago

Wakefield


"If the Eurozone collapsed it would probably spark WWIII. The impact on the world's economy would be catastrophic and the Syrian migrant crisis will look like a stroll on the beach compared to the numbers of people that would be on the move around the globe.

It is certainly not anything anyone should wish to happen.

WWWIII, you sound more and more like a desperate David Cameron with each passing day.

What do you think would happen if one of the world's major currencies disappeared then?

Whatever happens it wont be ww3

"

No but will be Brexit,s fault

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By *LCCCouple  over a year ago

Cambridge


"

Much less catastrophic and much more likely is a scenario in which some of the weaker eurozone countries such as Greece and Portugal exit the euro. It's a scenario Sagner calls "manageable."

So are you saying you think that will happen ?

It would appear that these experts you are very fond of are beginning to admit that the euro is a busted flush, the question appears to be how to get out of it with the minimal damage. His/your suggestion seems to be chuck the weakest to the wolves, do you not think that is very likely to cause huge unrest and anger against the strong countries that have used the weak euro to export goods. The whole financial cesspit which has made a few very wealthy on ponzi schemes is going to comeback and bite us all at some point, its not going to be pretty thats for sure, I am seriously thinking of taking my savings and buying gold "

I think a full scale melt down of the Euro is unlikely, I was just responding to the OP and saying that if it did happen, it would be really bad for everyone.

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By (user no longer on site)  over a year ago


"

Much less catastrophic and much more likely is a scenario in which some of the weaker eurozone countries such as Greece and Portugal exit the euro. It's a scenario Sagner calls "manageable."

So are you saying you think that will happen ?

It would appear that these experts you are very fond of are beginning to admit that the euro is a busted flush, the question appears to be how to get out of it with the minimal damage. His/your suggestion seems to be chuck the weakest to the wolves, do you not think that is very likely to cause huge unrest and anger against the strong countries that have used the weak euro to export goods. The whole financial cesspit which has made a few very wealthy on ponzi schemes is going to comeback and bite us all at some point, its not going to be pretty thats for sure, I am seriously thinking of taking my savings and buying gold

I think a full scale melt down of the Euro is unlikely, I was just responding to the OP and saying that if it did happen, it would be really bad for everyone. "

And who's fault would all this badness be?

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By *LCCCouple  over a year ago

Cambridge


"

Much less catastrophic and much more likely is a scenario in which some of the weaker eurozone countries such as Greece and Portugal exit the euro. It's a scenario Sagner calls "manageable."

So are you saying you think that will happen ?

It would appear that these experts you are very fond of are beginning to admit that the euro is a busted flush, the question appears to be how to get out of it with the minimal damage. His/your suggestion seems to be chuck the weakest to the wolves, do you not think that is very likely to cause huge unrest and anger against the strong countries that have used the weak euro to export goods. The whole financial cesspit which has made a few very wealthy on ponzi schemes is going to comeback and bite us all at some point, its not going to be pretty thats for sure, I am seriously thinking of taking my savings and buying gold

I think a full scale melt down of the Euro is unlikely, I was just responding to the OP and saying that if it did happen, it would be really bad for everyone.

And who's fault would all this badness be?"

Yours, I'm gonna say you. You personally, all your fault, just you, no one else.

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By (user no longer on site)  over a year ago


"

Much less catastrophic and much more likely is a scenario in which some of the weaker eurozone countries such as Greece and Portugal exit the euro. It's a scenario Sagner calls "manageable."

So are you saying you think that will happen ?

It would appear that these experts you are very fond of are beginning to admit that the euro is a busted flush, the question appears to be how to get out of it with the minimal damage. His/your suggestion seems to be chuck the weakest to the wolves, do you not think that is very likely to cause huge unrest and anger against the strong countries that have used the weak euro to export goods. The whole financial cesspit which has made a few very wealthy on ponzi schemes is going to comeback and bite us all at some point, its not going to be pretty thats for sure, I am seriously thinking of taking my savings and buying gold

I think a full scale melt down of the Euro is unlikely, I was just responding to the OP and saying that if it did happen, it would be really bad for everyone.

And who's fault would all this badness be?

Yours, I'm gonna say you. You personally, all your fault, just you, no one else. "

fair enough. I thought it was the EU's, silly me

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By *anes HubbyCouple  over a year ago

Babbacombe Torquay

I truly believe after talking long about this with my son who works in the City, that the Euro won't be able to fall easily, simply because the fallout would be catastrophic for not only those in the euro zone but also Britain and much of the Western world.

Every possible way of propping up the Euro will be undertaken before it would be allowed to fail.

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By *oo hotCouple  over a year ago

North West

Remarkable that the Euro is so completely fucked that it has held up against the Brexit bound £GBP.

Further, why would anyone really want to see their next door neighbours so fucked over that their fucked up life impacts yours? Better help them enjoy the life that they want even if you don't share the same vision than wish them purgatory and coming knocking on your door with begging bowl.

As it happens, the wishful denigration of our European cousins will actually have a hugely dramatic and unpleasant effect on the economy of the UK (and the world) whether we are in the EU or not.

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By *LCCCouple  over a year ago

Cambridge

[Removed by poster at 20/10/16 00:22:26]

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By *LCCCouple  over a year ago

Cambridge


"

Much less catastrophic and much more likely is a scenario in which some of the weaker eurozone countries such as Greece and Portugal exit the euro. It's a scenario Sagner calls "manageable."

So are you saying you think that will happen ?

It would appear that these experts you are very fond of are beginning to admit that the euro is a busted flush, the question appears to be how to get out of it with the minimal damage. His/your suggestion seems to be chuck the weakest to the wolves, do you not think that is very likely to cause huge unrest and anger against the strong countries that have used the weak euro to export goods. The whole financial cesspit which has made a few very wealthy on ponzi schemes is going to comeback and bite us all at some point, its not going to be pretty thats for sure, I am seriously thinking of taking my savings and buying gold

I think a full scale melt down of the Euro is unlikely, I was just responding to the OP and saying that if it did happen, it would be really bad for everyone.

And who's fault would all this badness be?

Yours, I'm gonna say you. You personally, all your fault, just you, no one else.

fair enough. I thought it was the EU's, silly me"

Thats because you like to blame everything on the EU. You seem to view it as an existential "other" that is controlling the member states, rather than understanding that it is actually made up of the member states.

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By (user no longer on site)  over a year ago

Seems theres alot of wishful anti euro thinking on here but if you read it fully he says one day not one day soon ,maybe we should be more concerned about pound sterling coz if you look in the shops theres chocolate coins worth more than the pound lol

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By *an_WoodMan  over a year ago

Stafford

We need inflation to keep the economy moving and the falling pound will generate that. It's the rate of change that is scary and loss of control when events speed up from April 2017.

Celebrations about a possible Euro currency crisis is the ultimate in diversion from our own problems we as a nation voted for.

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By (user no longer on site)  over a year ago


"Remarkable that the Euro is so completely fucked that it has held up against the Brexit bound £GBP.

Further, why would anyone really want to see their next door neighbours so fucked over that their fucked up life impacts yours? Better help them enjoy the life that they want even if you don't share the same vision than wish them purgatory and coming knocking on your door with begging bowl.

As it happens, the wishful denigration of our European cousins will actually have a hugely dramatic and unpleasant effect on the economy of the UK (and the world) whether we are in the EU or not."

Our next door neighbours have already been fucked over by it. The sensible thing to do would be to allow the southern countries to re introduce their currencies or let them keep the Euro and Germany return to the Mark before it fails. Stubborness and ideology will not allow this though and millions of people on the continent are suffering now because of it

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By (user no longer on site)  over a year ago


"

Much less catastrophic and much more likely is a scenario in which some of the weaker eurozone countries such as Greece and Portugal exit the euro. It's a scenario Sagner calls "manageable."

So are you saying you think that will happen ?

It would appear that these experts you are very fond of are beginning to admit that the euro is a busted flush, the question appears to be how to get out of it with the minimal damage. His/your suggestion seems to be chuck the weakest to the wolves, do you not think that is very likely to cause huge unrest and anger against the strong countries that have used the weak euro to export goods. The whole financial cesspit which has made a few very wealthy on ponzi schemes is going to comeback and bite us all at some point, its not going to be pretty thats for sure, I am seriously thinking of taking my savings and buying gold

I think a full scale melt down of the Euro is unlikely, I was just responding to the OP and saying that if it did happen, it would be really bad for everyone.

And who's fault would all this badness be?

Yours, I'm gonna say you. You personally, all your fault, just you, no one else.

fair enough. I thought it was the EU's, silly me

Thats because you like to blame everything on the EU. You seem to view it as an existential "other" that is controlling the member states, rather than understanding that it is actually made up of the member states."

get real

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By *obka3Couple  over a year ago

bournemouth


"Remarkable that the Euro is so completely fucked that it has held up against the Brexit bound £GBP.

Further, why would anyone really want to see their next door neighbours so fucked over that their fucked up life impacts yours? Better help them enjoy the life that they want even if you don't share the same vision than wish them purgatory and coming knocking on your door with begging bowl.

As it happens, the wishful denigration of our European cousins will actually have a hugely dramatic and unpleasant effect on the economy of the UK (and the world) whether we are in the EU or not."

Yet you or many remoaners say the EU is going to make it really hard for us to leave to punish us etc etc, why would they do that when it will affect their economy if we cant afford their stuff. No one should want either the EU or the uk to suffer from us leaving and there is absolutely no reason for either to, provided of course we trade freely with no tariffs, so tell us who is the one saying they want free trade and who says we cant have tariff free access ?

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By *otlovefun42Couple  over a year ago

Costa Blanca Spain...


"And we never have voted to join the Euro....

But the politicians you sided with in the referendum like Nick Clegg and Peter Mandelson did want us to join the Euro. So called experts like the CBI too. Thank god people had the good sense not to listen to them. Peter Mandelson still wanted us to join the Euro as recently as 2014.

But we didn't join it did we?

Why keep harping on about things that we decided not to do?, isn't it enough for you that we didn't join the Euro?.....I don't understand the joy you get from watching another currency failing, and in all likelihood impacting upon our own economy....."

There's plenty on here that keep harping on because we decided not to stay in the EU.

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By *otlovefun42Couple  over a year ago

Costa Blanca Spain...


"Some thoughts on the collapse of the Eurozone:

Werner Bonadurer, a clinical professor of finance at the W.P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University

"Such a collapse would lead to a multiyear depression in Europe and several years of recession in the U.S"

Terry Connelly, dean emeritus of the Ageno School of Business at Golden Gate University

Even worse, Connelly predicts a collapse also could destroy interbank lending worldwide. A run on banks around the world would freeze credit markets, making it difficult for businesses to borrow money. But unlike a similar crisis in the U.S. in 2008, Connelly says "there really is no road map" for saving the global banking industry because there's no single global entity that wields as much power internationally as the U.S. Federal Reserve does domestically.

Much less catastrophic and much more likely is a scenario in which some of the weaker eurozone countries such as Greece and Portugal exit the euro. It's a scenario Sagner calls "manageable."

But countries that continue to use the euro will pay a price, says Bonadurer, who estimates that even a "small-scale breakup" could destroy from 25 percent to 60 percent of gross domestic product in the stronger countries that remain with the euro.

"Banks throughout Europe and to some extent elsewhere would suffer catastrophic losses and would need to be nationalized," Bonadurer says. "There would be massive wealth destruction in the private sector. European export markets for (the stronger EU countries) would practically disappear because devaluation will make those products and services expensive and uncompetitive, and we would see huge unemployment as a result."

Vince Cable speaking in 2012 "I think we need to take stock that if the eurozone were to unravel in a way that destroyed the European project - and there is a risk that could happen - the consequences would be absolutely incalculable.

"We tend to forget, until we were reminded last week of that Nobel Prize, the European project was constructed in order to rescue Europe from extreme nationalism and conflict. There is no automatic guarantee that won't return.”

A collapse of Europe’s monetary union would likely lead to a breakup of the European Union as a whole, posing significant risks to the region and even raising the possibility of war in the long term, Poland’s Finance Minister told CNBC late on Thursday. The EU has been one of the two great pillars of European peace and security of the past 60 years," he said.

"Therefore the danger in a longer-time horizon, in 10-20 years, in the absence of one of the key elements of our security system and one of the key elements of our political system, which ensures we deal with problems in this peaceful, democratic way we've developed, the risk of all sorts of authoritarian political movements, and therefore even war, in the long horizon, rises,” he said.

"

Bloody hell!!!!

I'm in shock!!!!

I agree with every word of that

However would you not think that with such devastating consequences of failure that the EU would be at least trying to put the Eurozone into some kind of order?

They have been kicking the can down the road since 2008 but that can could well and truly hit the buffers as early as December 4th.

As an aside, the next global recession is coming. It doesn't really matter whether Britain is in or out of the EU. Everyone will be hit by it.

Maybe the collapse of the Euro will be the cause, or maybe something else will trigger it, but come it will, and sooner than you think.

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By *LCCCouple  over a year ago

Cambridge


"Some thoughts on the collapse of the Eurozone:

Werner Bonadurer, a clinical professor of finance at the W.P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University

"Such a collapse would lead to a multiyear depression in Europe and several years of recession in the U.S"

Terry Connelly, dean emeritus of the Ageno School of Business at Golden Gate University

Even worse, Connelly predicts a collapse also could destroy interbank lending worldwide. A run on banks around the world would freeze credit markets, making it difficult for businesses to borrow money. But unlike a similar crisis in the U.S. in 2008, Connelly says "there really is no road map" for saving the global banking industry because there's no single global entity that wields as much power internationally as the U.S. Federal Reserve does domestically.

Much less catastrophic and much more likely is a scenario in which some of the weaker eurozone countries such as Greece and Portugal exit the euro. It's a scenario Sagner calls "manageable."

But countries that continue to use the euro will pay a price, says Bonadurer, who estimates that even a "small-scale breakup" could destroy from 25 percent to 60 percent of gross domestic product in the stronger countries that remain with the euro.

"Banks throughout Europe and to some extent elsewhere would suffer catastrophic losses and would need to be nationalized," Bonadurer says. "There would be massive wealth destruction in the private sector. European export markets for (the stronger EU countries) would practically disappear because devaluation will make those products and services expensive and uncompetitive, and we would see huge unemployment as a result."

Vince Cable speaking in 2012 "I think we need to take stock that if the eurozone were to unravel in a way that destroyed the European project - and there is a risk that could happen - the consequences would be absolutely incalculable.

"We tend to forget, until we were reminded last week of that Nobel Prize, the European project was constructed in order to rescue Europe from extreme nationalism and conflict. There is no automatic guarantee that won't return.”

A collapse of Europe’s monetary union would likely lead to a breakup of the European Union as a whole, posing significant risks to the region and even raising the possibility of war in the long term, Poland’s Finance Minister told CNBC late on Thursday. The EU has been one of the two great pillars of European peace and security of the past 60 years," he said.

"Therefore the danger in a longer-time horizon, in 10-20 years, in the absence of one of the key elements of our security system and one of the key elements of our political system, which ensures we deal with problems in this peaceful, democratic way we've developed, the risk of all sorts of authoritarian political movements, and therefore even war, in the long horizon, rises,” he said.

Bloody hell!!!!

I'm in shock!!!!

I agree with every word of that

However would you not think that with such devastating consequences of failure that the EU would be at least trying to put the Eurozone into some kind of order?

They have been kicking the can down the road since 2008 but that can could well and truly hit the buffers as early as December 4th.

As an aside, the next global recession is coming. It doesn't really matter whether Britain is in or out of the EU. Everyone will be hit by it.

Maybe the collapse of the Euro will be the cause, or maybe something else will trigger it, but come it will, and sooner than you think."

I don't know whats best for the Eurozone, not really my area of "expertise" . All I know is it would be bad if it collapsed.

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By *otlovefun42Couple  over a year ago

Costa Blanca Spain...


"Some thoughts on the collapse of the Eurozone:

Werner Bonadurer, a clinical professor of finance at the W.P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University

"Such a collapse would lead to a multiyear depression in Europe and several years of recession in the U.S"

Terry Connelly, dean emeritus of the Ageno School of Business at Golden Gate University

Even worse, Connelly predicts a collapse also could destroy interbank lending worldwide. A run on banks around the world would freeze credit markets, making it difficult for businesses to borrow money. But unlike a similar crisis in the U.S. in 2008, Connelly says "there really is no road map" for saving the global banking industry because there's no single global entity that wields as much power internationally as the U.S. Federal Reserve does domestically.

Much less catastrophic and much more likely is a scenario in which some of the weaker eurozone countries such as Greece and Portugal exit the euro. It's a scenario Sagner calls "manageable."

But countries that continue to use the euro will pay a price, says Bonadurer, who estimates that even a "small-scale breakup" could destroy from 25 percent to 60 percent of gross domestic product in the stronger countries that remain with the euro.

"Banks throughout Europe and to some extent elsewhere would suffer catastrophic losses and would need to be nationalized," Bonadurer says. "There would be massive wealth destruction in the private sector. European export markets for (the stronger EU countries) would practically disappear because devaluation will make those products and services expensive and uncompetitive, and we would see huge unemployment as a result."

Vince Cable speaking in 2012 "I think we need to take stock that if the eurozone were to unravel in a way that destroyed the European project - and there is a risk that could happen - the consequences would be absolutely incalculable.

"We tend to forget, until we were reminded last week of that Nobel Prize, the European project was constructed in order to rescue Europe from extreme nationalism and conflict. There is no automatic guarantee that won't return.”

A collapse of Europe’s monetary union would likely lead to a breakup of the European Union as a whole, posing significant risks to the region and even raising the possibility of war in the long term, Poland’s Finance Minister told CNBC late on Thursday. The EU has been one of the two great pillars of European peace and security of the past 60 years," he said.

"Therefore the danger in a longer-time horizon, in 10-20 years, in the absence of one of the key elements of our security system and one of the key elements of our political system, which ensures we deal with problems in this peaceful, democratic way we've developed, the risk of all sorts of authoritarian political movements, and therefore even war, in the long horizon, rises,” he said.

Bloody hell!!!!

I'm in shock!!!!

I agree with every word of that

However would you not think that with such devastating consequences of failure that the EU would be at least trying to put the Eurozone into some kind of order?

They have been kicking the can down the road since 2008 but that can could well and truly hit the buffers as early as December 4th.

As an aside, the next global recession is coming. It doesn't really matter whether Britain is in or out of the EU. Everyone will be hit by it.

Maybe the collapse of the Euro will be the cause, or maybe something else will trigger it, but come it will, and sooner than you think.

I don't know whats best for the Eurozone, not really my area of "expertise" . All I know is it would be bad if it collapsed."

Of course it will be bad for everyone. That is why the EU needs to find some way of getting itself out of the shitty mess it has got itself into.

The current policy of chucking more and more money at bailouts with some Mickawberish hope that something will turn up will only lead to disaster.

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By *orksCouple25Couple  over a year ago

Leeds


"The only people I've seen revelling in the pound falling on these forums are you and a couple of other Brexiteers, you even started a thread about it.....It's not something you should gain enjoyment over."

Add to that revelling every UK business that exports around the world including the employees of these businesses and throw in every Hotelier in London and also everyone involved in the tourist industry in the U.K. too.

My personal take on it though was leaving the corrupt monstrosity that is the EU was nothing to do with whether I'd be better or worse off there were 2 much bigger issues that that namely being a sovereign state once more and having at least some say in who can come and live here from abroad.The origional poster was right this artificial political project is going to sink and luckily we have got in the first lifeboat

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By *tillup4funMan  over a year ago

Wakefield


"The only people I've seen revelling in the pound falling on these forums are you and a couple of other Brexiteers, you even started a thread about it.....It's not something you should gain enjoyment over.

Add to that revelling every UK business that exports around the world including the employees of these businesses and throw in every Hotelier in London and also everyone involved in the tourist industry in the U.K. too.

My personal take on it though was leaving the corrupt monstrosity that is the EU was nothing to do with whether I'd be better or worse off there were 2 much bigger issues that that namely being a sovereign state once more and having at least some say in who can come and live here from abroad.The origional poster was right this artificial political project is going to sink and luckily we have got in the first lifeboat "

Yes but the UK now needs to hope it lasts long enough for us to leave the EU before it does sink.

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By *anes HubbyCouple  over a year ago

Babbacombe Torquay


"The only people I've seen revelling in the pound falling on these forums are you and a couple of other Brexiteers, you even started a thread about it.....It's not something you should gain enjoyment over.

Add to that revelling every UK business that exports around the world including the employees of these businesses and throw in every Hotelier in London and also everyone involved in the tourist industry in the U.K. too.

My personal take on it though was leaving the corrupt monstrosity that is the EU was nothing to do with whether I'd be better or worse off there were 2 much bigger issues that that namely being a sovereign state once more and having at least some say in who can come and live here from abroad.The origional poster was right this artificial political project is going to sink and luckily we have got in the first lifeboat

Yes but the UK now needs to hope it lasts long enough for us to leave the EU before it does sink. "

It makes no difference whether it be before or after we leave the EU, our banks are exposed to the Euro in a massive way, as are most of the leading banks in the civilised world.

If the Euro falls the finance houses of the world would take a shock that would take up to a decade to get over.

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By *andS66Couple  over a year ago

Derby


"

Much less catastrophic and much more likely is a scenario in which some of the weaker eurozone countries such as Greece and Portugal exit the euro. It's a scenario Sagner calls "manageable."

So are you saying you think that will happen ?

It would appear that these experts you are very fond of are beginning to admit that the euro is a busted flush, the question appears to be how to get out of it with the minimal damage. His/your suggestion seems to be chuck the weakest to the wolves, do you not think that is very likely to cause huge unrest and anger against the strong countries that have used the weak euro to export goods. The whole financial cesspit which has made a few very wealthy on ponzi schemes is going to comeback and bite us all at some point, its not going to be pretty thats for sure, I am seriously thinking of taking my savings and buying gold

I think a full scale melt down of the Euro is unlikely, I was just responding to the OP and saying that if it did happen, it would be really bad for everyone.

And who's fault would all this badness be?

Yours, I'm gonna say you. You personally, all your fault, just you, no one else. "

Nothing to do with the EU then?

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By *tillup4funMan  over a year ago

Wakefield


"The only people I've seen revelling in the pound falling on these forums are you and a couple of other Brexiteers, you even started a thread about it.....It's not something you should gain enjoyment over.

Add to that revelling every UK business that exports around the world including the employees of these businesses and throw in every Hotelier in London and also everyone involved in the tourist industry in the U.K. too.

My personal take on it though was leaving the corrupt monstrosity that is the EU was nothing to do with whether I'd be better or worse off there were 2 much bigger issues that that namely being a sovereign state once more and having at least some say in who can come and live here from abroad.The origional poster was right this artificial political project is going to sink and luckily we have got in the first lifeboat

Yes but the UK now needs to hope it lasts long enough for us to leave the EU before it does sink.

It makes no difference whether it be before or after we leave the EU, our banks are exposed to the Euro in a massive way, as are most of the leading banks in the civilised world.

If the Euro falls the finance houses of the world would take a shock that would take up to a decade to get over."

That's your opinion I think the UK would be hit harder if we were still in the EU but one think is true its not going to be good for anyone.

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By (user no longer on site)  over a year ago


""one day the house of cards will collapse, it is difficult to forecast how long but it cannot go on endlessly".

"

Given he's provided us with such a detailed analysis it's clear the guy really knows what he's talking about.

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