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Will the Govt last until 2020?
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By *oo hot OP Couple
over a year ago
North West |
Personally, I don't think so.
The Grammar school thing is an ideological policy that Mrs May has dragged into stage from the blind side and I expect more similar ideological Tory policies in the coming months/years. The problem with this is that the Govt has a small majority and once Labour have sorted themselves out, it won't take much to get defeated in a vote of no confidence if these old policies get dragged back to the fore.
I think that Mrs May's strengths will also be her weakness. Growing up in a devoutly religious family and attending convent school and a girls grammar school has probably embedded in her a puritanical view of how the country should be. I am not sure the country wants to be what she thinks it should be. |
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By *LCCCouple
over a year ago
Cambridge |
I think the next 4 years are going to rock British politics, with Brexit, the NHS, the future of Scotland and NI, junior Drs, grammer schools etc. I think we will see an election before 2020. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"Personally, I don't think so.
The Grammar school thing is an ideological policy that Mrs May has dragged into stage from the blind side and I expect more similar ideological Tory policies in the coming months/years. The problem with this is that the Govt has a small majority and once Labour have sorted themselves out, it won't take much to get defeated in a vote of no confidence if these old policies get dragged back to the fore.
I think that Mrs May's strengths will also be her weakness. Growing up in a devoutly religious family and attending convent school and a girls grammar school has probably embedded in her a puritanical view of how the country should be. I am not sure the country wants to be what she thinks it should be."
I'm interested in the question but didn't follow the logic of why any of those things would lead to an election? |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"I think the next 4 years are going to rock British politics, with Brexit, the NHS, the future of Scotland and NI, junior Drs, grammer schools etc. I think we will see an election before 2020."
Other than Brexit I think all those other things are non-factors.
Frankly, the decision to grant independence to the monetary policy committee had more impact than any of them except Brexit and most voters have no idea what that even means. |
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By *LCCCouple
over a year ago
Cambridge |
"I think the next 4 years are going to rock British politics, with Brexit, the NHS, the future of Scotland and NI, junior Drs, grammer schools etc. I think we will see an election before 2020.
Other than Brexit I think all those other things are non-factors.
Frankly, the decision to grant independence to the monetary policy committee had more impact than any of them except Brexit and most voters have no idea what that even means. "
I would say that the break up of the UK would be bigger than the creation of the MPC |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"I think the next 4 years are going to rock British politics, with Brexit, the NHS, the future of Scotland and NI, junior Drs, grammer schools etc. I think we will see an election before 2020.
Other than Brexit I think all those other things are non-factors.
Frankly, the decision to grant independence to the monetary policy committee had more impact than any of them except Brexit and most voters have no idea what that even means.
I would say that the break up of the UK would be bigger than the creation of the MPC"
It wasn't the creation, it was the independence.
I disagree in terms of the impact it would have on the pound in your pocket. |
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By *oo hot OP Couple
over a year ago
North West |
"Personally, I don't think so.
The Grammar school thing is an ideological policy that Mrs May has dragged into stage from the blind side and I expect more similar ideological Tory policies in the coming months/years. The problem with this is that the Govt has a small majority and once Labour have sorted themselves out, it won't take much to get defeated in a vote of no confidence if these old policies get dragged back to the fore.
I think that Mrs May's strengths will also be her weakness. Growing up in a devoutly religious family and attending convent school and a girls grammar school has probably embedded in her a puritanical view of how the country should be. I am not sure the country wants to be what she thinks it should be.
I'm interested in the question but didn't follow the logic of why any of those things would lead to an election? "
Because between the SNP, LibDems, Labour and the centrist Tories - there is not much appetite in Parliament for old school Tory policies. If May is not careful she could start losing policy votes and eventually lose a vote of no confidence - not because of Brexit, but because of some daft, historical Tory vanity policy. |
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By *LCCCouple
over a year ago
Cambridge |
"I think the next 4 years are going to rock British politics, with Brexit, the NHS, the future of Scotland and NI, junior Drs, grammer schools etc. I think we will see an election before 2020.
Other than Brexit I think all those other things are non-factors.
Frankly, the decision to grant independence to the monetary policy committee had more impact than any of them except Brexit and most voters have no idea what that even means.
I would say that the break up of the UK would be bigger than the creation of the MPC
It wasn't the creation, it was the independence.
I disagree in terms of the impact it would have on the pound in your pocket."
I think the break up of the UK would be terrible for the £ |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"I think the next 4 years are going to rock British politics, with Brexit, the NHS, the future of Scotland and NI, junior Drs, grammer schools etc. I think we will see an election before 2020.
Other than Brexit I think all those other things are non-factors.
Frankly, the decision to grant independence to the monetary policy committee had more impact than any of them except Brexit and most voters have no idea what that even means.
I would say that the break up of the UK would be bigger than the creation of the MPC
It wasn't the creation, it was the independence.
I disagree in terms of the impact it would have on the pound in your pocket.
I think the break up of the UK would be terrible for the £"
Short term - yes. Long term - negligible difference. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"Personally, I don't think so.
The Grammar school thing is an ideological policy that Mrs May has dragged into stage from the blind side and I expect more similar ideological Tory policies in the coming months/years. The problem with this is that the Govt has a small majority and once Labour have sorted themselves out, it won't take much to get defeated in a vote of no confidence if these old policies get dragged back to the fore.
I think that Mrs May's strengths will also be her weakness. Growing up in a devoutly religious family and attending convent school and a girls grammar school has probably embedded in her a puritanical view of how the country should be. I am not sure the country wants to be what she thinks it should be.
I'm interested in the question but didn't follow the logic of why any of those things would lead to an election?
Because between the SNP, LibDems, Labour and the centrist Tories - there is not much appetite in Parliament for old school Tory policies. If May is not careful she could start losing policy votes and eventually lose a vote of no confidence - not because of Brexit, but because of some daft, historical Tory vanity policy."
How likely would you say it is in probability terms?
Same question to CLCC so we can start calculating your brier score  |
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By *obka3Couple
over a year ago
bournemouth |
"Personally, I don't think so.
The Grammar school thing is an ideological policy that Mrs May has dragged into stage from the blind side and I expect more similar ideological Tory policies in the coming months/years. The problem with this is that the Govt has a small majority and once Labour have sorted themselves out, it won't take much to get defeated in a vote of no confidence if these old policies get dragged back to the fore.
I think that Mrs May's strengths will also be her weakness. Growing up in a devoutly religious family and attending convent school and a girls grammar school has probably embedded in her a puritanical view of how the country should be. I am not sure the country wants to be what she thinks it should be."
so you really think that any tory MP's are going to vote against the gov in a vote of no confidence? The only way that would happen is if they thought that we would then get another vote on brexit so committed hari kari in the hope that a new gov would give into the moaners, well just watch UKIP form the next gov if that is what happens, any party that says it will give another vote will be destroyed by those who voted out all going for ukip |
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By *LCCCouple
over a year ago
Cambridge |
"Personally, I don't think so.
The Grammar school thing is an ideological policy that Mrs May has dragged into stage from the blind side and I expect more similar ideological Tory policies in the coming months/years. The problem with this is that the Govt has a small majority and once Labour have sorted themselves out, it won't take much to get defeated in a vote of no confidence if these old policies get dragged back to the fore.
I think that Mrs May's strengths will also be her weakness. Growing up in a devoutly religious family and attending convent school and a girls grammar school has probably embedded in her a puritanical view of how the country should be. I am not sure the country wants to be what she thinks it should be.
so you really think that any tory MP's are going to vote against the gov in a vote of no confidence? The only way that would happen is if they thought that we would then get another vote on brexit so committed hari kari in the hope that a new gov would give into the moaners, well just watch UKIP form the next gov if that is what happens, any party that says it will give another vote will be destroyed by those who voted out all going for ukip "
I don't really understand why? The Brexiters on here say that Leave would win by an even bigger majority than before, if that's the case, then why worry about another referendum for example after a Brexit deal has been negotiated? |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
"Personally, I don't think so.
The Grammar school thing is an ideological policy that Mrs May has dragged into stage from the blind side and I expect more similar ideological Tory policies in the coming months/years. The problem with this is that the Govt has a small majority and once Labour have sorted themselves out, it won't take much to get defeated in a vote of no confidence if these old policies get dragged back to the fore.
I think that Mrs May's strengths will also be her weakness. Growing up in a devoutly religious family and attending convent school and a girls grammar school has probably embedded in her a puritanical view of how the country should be. I am not sure the country wants to be what she thinks it should be."
I think Theresa May's Government is the only stable thing in Parliament at the moment. Probably for the foreseeable future too.
Yes she will have ideas that others disagree with - why would that mean an early election? |
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"Other than Brexit I think all those other things are non-factors.
Frankly, the decision to grant independence to the monetary policy committee had more impact than any of them except Brexit and most voters have no idea what that even means. "
I think you are totally missing the point. What you see as non issues are only that while the status quo is maintained, and although any one of them on their own is not enough to trigger a GE if the leaks coming out of Whitehall are correct the plans for privatisation of the NHS will on their own be cause for a GE the plans TM has just announced for education will most certainly provide the extra momentum to trigger a GE.
It is my belief that the tory plan is to deliberately introduce policies that will force a vote of 'no confidence' in the government, then trigger article 50 and hand the poison chalice that is brexit to an incoming labour government who will then have to deal with the upheavals and disappointments that will undoubtedly come with exiting thee EU.
I further believe that JC and the left is being set up as the patsy by to carry the can for the hubris of the right. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
"Other than Brexit I think all those other things are non-factors.
Frankly, the decision to grant independence to the monetary policy committee had more impact than any of them except Brexit and most voters have no idea what that even means.
I think you are totally missing the point. What you see as non issues are only that while the status quo is maintained, and although any one of them on their own is not enough to trigger a GE if the leaks coming out of Whitehall are correct the plans for privatisation of the NHS will on their own be cause for a GE the plans TM has just announced for education will most certainly provide the extra momentum to trigger a GE.
It is my belief that the tory plan is to deliberately introduce policies that will force a vote of 'no confidence' in the government, then trigger article 50 and hand the poison chalice that is brexit to an incoming labour government who will then have to deal with the upheavals and disappointments that will undoubtedly come with exiting thee EU.
I further believe that JC and the left is being set up as the patsy by to carry the can for the hubris of the right."
Again, I asked for probabilities and nobody wanted to give them. Probably because if you calculated your brier score it would be shocking. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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I think Teresa May will just get on with things and then call an election when she has to !
I don't think she will play games !
I actually think she may turn out to be a very good P M , tho I didn't vote conservative . |
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"Other than Brexit I think all those other things are non-factors.
Frankly, the decision to grant independence to the monetary policy committee had more impact than any of them except Brexit and most voters have no idea what that even means.
I think you are totally missing the point. What you see as non issues are only that while the status quo is maintained, and although any one of them on their own is not enough to trigger a GE if the leaks coming out of Whitehall are correct the plans for privatisation of the NHS will on their own be cause for a GE the plans TM has just announced for education will most certainly provide the extra momentum to trigger a GE.
It is my belief that the tory plan is to deliberately introduce policies that will force a vote of 'no confidence' in the government, then trigger article 50 and hand the poison chalice that is brexit to an incoming labour government who will then have to deal with the upheavals and disappointments that will undoubtedly come with exiting thee EU.
I further believe that JC and the left is being set up as the patsy by to carry the can for the hubris of the right.
Again, I asked for probabilities and nobody wanted to give them. Probably because if you calculated your brier score it would be shocking. "
Again I would say you are probably wrong. You are working from the premise that the government are not manipulating policy to cause a vote of no confidence which I maintain is a false premise.
I would suggest that the probability of an early general election is very high. Because there can be no doubt that brexit can not deliver everything expected of it by everyone who voted for it. It is a poison chalice for whoever is in power when it is delivered and like all hot potatoes the art is to pass it on without being seen to be passing it on.
Politicians are past masters of the arts of duplicity and I smell the stench of political skulduggery at play round brexit. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
"Other than Brexit I think all those other things are non-factors.
Frankly, the decision to grant independence to the monetary policy committee had more impact than any of them except Brexit and most voters have no idea what that even means.
I think you are totally missing the point. What you see as non issues are only that while the status quo is maintained, and although any one of them on their own is not enough to trigger a GE if the leaks coming out of Whitehall are correct the plans for privatisation of the NHS will on their own be cause for a GE the plans TM has just announced for education will most certainly provide the extra momentum to trigger a GE.
It is my belief that the tory plan is to deliberately introduce policies that will force a vote of 'no confidence' in the government, then trigger article 50 and hand the poison chalice that is brexit to an incoming labour government who will then have to deal with the upheavals and disappointments that will undoubtedly come with exiting thee EU.
I further believe that JC and the left is being set up as the patsy by to carry the can for the hubris of the right.
Again, I asked for probabilities and nobody wanted to give them. Probably because if you calculated your brier score it would be shocking.
Again I would say you are probably wrong. You are working from the premise that the government are not manipulating policy to cause a vote of no confidence which I maintain is a false premise.
I would suggest that the probability of an early general election is very high. Because there can be no doubt that brexit can not deliver everything expected of it by everyone who voted for it. It is a poison chalice for whoever is in power when it is delivered and like all hot potatoes the art is to pass it on without being seen to be passing it on.
Politicians are past masters of the arts of duplicity and I smell the stench of political skulduggery at play round brexit."
Great, can I have you precise probability please? Then we can start keeping a record and learn who does and doesn't talk nonsense on here...
So a few things:
- what is the probability there will be a general election before 1st January 2020?
- what is the probability that before 1st if January 2020, the NHS will cease to be free at the point of use?
- what is the probability that Jeremy Corbyn wins a general election before 1st January 2020? |
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By *obka3Couple
over a year ago
bournemouth |
"Other than Brexit I think all those other things are non-factors.
Frankly, the decision to grant independence to the monetary policy committee had more impact than any of them except Brexit and most voters have no idea what that even means.
I think you are totally missing the point. What you see as non issues are only that while the status quo is maintained, and although any one of them on their own is not enough to trigger a GE if the leaks coming out of Whitehall are correct the plans for privatisation of the NHS will on their own be cause for a GE the plans TM has just announced for education will most certainly provide the extra momentum to trigger a GE.
It is my belief that the tory plan is to deliberately introduce policies that will force a vote of 'no confidence' in the government, then trigger article 50 and hand the poison chalice that is brexit to an incoming labour government who will then have to deal with the upheavals and disappointments that will undoubtedly come with exiting thee EU.
I further believe that JC and the left is being set up as the patsy by to carry the can for the hubris of the right."
You should take up writing novels for a living that is one hell of an imagination you have there,especially the bit about JC being pm |
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By *mmabluTV/TS
over a year ago
upton wirral |
"I think Teresa May will just get on with things and then call an election when she has to !
I don't think she will play games !
I actually think she may turn out to be a very good P M , tho I didn't vote conservative ."
 |
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"Other than Brexit I think all those other things are non-factors.
Frankly, the decision to grant independence to the monetary policy committee had more impact than any of them except Brexit and most voters have no idea what that even means.
I think you are totally missing the point. What you see as non issues are only that while the status quo is maintained, and although any one of them on their own is not enough to trigger a GE if the leaks coming out of Whitehall are correct the plans for privatisation of the NHS will on their own be cause for a GE the plans TM has just announced for education will most certainly provide the extra momentum to trigger a GE.
It is my belief that the tory plan is to deliberately introduce policies that will force a vote of 'no confidence' in the government, then trigger article 50 and hand the poison chalice that is brexit to an incoming labour government who will then have to deal with the upheavals and disappointments that will undoubtedly come with exiting thee EU.
I further believe that JC and the left is being set up as the patsy by to carry the can for the hubris of the right.
Again, I asked for probabilities and nobody wanted to give them. Probably because if you calculated your brier score it would be shocking.
Again I would say you are probably wrong. You are working from the premise that the government are not manipulating policy to cause a vote of no confidence which I maintain is a false premise.
I would suggest that the probability of an early general election is very high. Because there can be no doubt that brexit can not deliver everything expected of it by everyone who voted for it. It is a poison chalice for whoever is in power when it is delivered and like all hot potatoes the art is to pass it on without being seen to be passing it on.
Politicians are past masters of the arts of duplicity and I smell the stench of political skulduggery at play round brexit.
Great, can I have you precise probability please? Then we can start keeping a record and learn who does and doesn't talk nonsense on here...
So a few things:
- what is the probability there will be a general election before 1st January 2020?
- what is the probability that before 1st if January 2020, the NHS will cease to be free at the point of use?
- what is the probability that Jeremy Corbyn wins a general election before 1st January 2020? "
Erm zero,zero,and a definite zero
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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I cannot realistically see how at least a Tory government maybe not this one perse could fail, they've got no credible opposition whatsoever, the liberals are down to about what 8 mps and labour are in a civil war that won't be fixed easily or quickly(there ideologically split on many issues and not just with each other but with many people who are labour voters).
I'd imagine the Tories will have a free ride for at least ten years |
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By *obka3Couple
over a year ago
bournemouth |
"I cannot realistically see how at least a Tory government maybe not this one perse could fail, they've got no credible opposition whatsoever, the liberals are down to about what 8 mps and labour are in a civil war that won't be fixed easily or quickly(there ideologically split on many issues and not just with each other but with many people who are labour voters).
I'd imagine the Tories will have a free ride for at least ten years"
The country always needs a credible opposition |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"I cannot realistically see how at least a Tory government maybe not this one perse could fail, they've got no credible opposition whatsoever, the liberals are down to about what 8 mps and labour are in a civil war that won't be fixed easily or quickly(there ideologically split on many issues and not just with each other but with many people who are labour voters).
I'd imagine the Tories will have a free ride for at least ten years
The country always needs a credible opposition "
.
That's often said but why do you think a decent government needs decent opposition?.... Actually I think they'll do better being able to get on with it, so to speak |
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By *oo hot OP Couple
over a year ago
North West |
"Do you think it matters if there is no opposition? Or will it be worse if they fail and there is no scape goat."
Don't underestimate the ability of any political party to fall off a cliff and self destruct. There is division within the Conservative Party in the same way that there is division in The Labour Party. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"Do you think it matters if there is no opposition? Or will it be worse if they fail and there is no scape goat.
Don't underestimate the ability of any political party to fall off a cliff and self destruct. There is division within the Conservative Party in the same way that there is division in The Labour Party."
That's the point I was going to get to. Success is not beating the competition. It's actually delivering what the voters want. But since we change government there is always in every new government "the Tories did this" or "labour did that". If they get another two terms, yes they can implement what they need since they have time. Or as TooHot says, they'll fall of a cliff or self destruct. At least labour would self destruct as an opposition, not as a party running the government. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"Do you think it matters if there is no opposition? Or will it be worse if they fail and there is no scape goat.
Don't underestimate the ability of any political party to fall off a cliff and self destruct. There is division within the Conservative Party in the same way that there is division in The Labour Party."
There's division but not in the same way! There's no realistic prospect of the Tories breaking in two! |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"I cannot realistically see how at least a Tory government maybe not this one perse could fail, they've got no credible opposition whatsoever, the liberals are down to about what 8 mps and labour are in a civil war that won't be fixed easily or quickly(there ideologically split on many issues and not just with each other but with many people who are labour voters).
I'd imagine the Tories will have a free ride for at least ten years
The country always needs a credible opposition .
That's often said but why do you think a decent government needs decent opposition?.... Actually I think they'll do better being able to get on with it, so to speak"
The same reason the WWF was better when WCW existed. Competition breeds innovation. War is the mother of all invention so to speak. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
"Do you think it matters if there is no opposition? Or will it be worse if they fail and there is no scape goat.
Don't underestimate the ability of any political party to fall off a cliff and self destruct. There is division within the Conservative Party in the same way that there is division in The Labour Party.
There's division but not in the same way! There's no realistic prospect of the Tories breaking in two! "
What's the probability the Tories will be seen as successful if there is no opposition to beat then at a GE?
We need your Brier score too. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"Do you think it matters if there is no opposition? Or will it be worse if they fail and there is no scape goat.
Don't underestimate the ability of any political party to fall off a cliff and self destruct. There is division within the Conservative Party in the same way that there is division in The Labour Party.
There's division but not in the same way! There's no realistic prospect of the Tories breaking in two!
What's the probability the Tories will be seen as successful if there is no opposition to beat then at a GE?
We need your Brier score too."
Shhh I was baiting them to join our game when the inevitable comparison to UKIP/ Tories divisions came back |
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By *obka3Couple
over a year ago
bournemouth |
"I cannot realistically see how at least a Tory government maybe not this one perse could fail, they've got no credible opposition whatsoever, the liberals are down to about what 8 mps and labour are in a civil war that won't be fixed easily or quickly(there ideologically split on many issues and not just with each other but with many people who are labour voters).
I'd imagine the Tories will have a free ride for at least ten years
The country always needs a credible opposition .
That's often said but why do you think a decent government needs decent opposition?.... Actually I think they'll do better being able to get on with it, so to speak"
because there is always another way of looking at any situation and constructive criticism can lead to better solutions, If you were in charge of something and nobody said hang on thats not right you naturally start to believe every thought you have is right first time instead of taking a second look and finding a better way |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"I cannot realistically see how at least a Tory government maybe not this one perse could fail, they've got no credible opposition whatsoever, the liberals are down to about what 8 mps and labour are in a civil war that won't be fixed easily or quickly(there ideologically split on many issues and not just with each other but with many people who are labour voters).
I'd imagine the Tories will have a free ride for at least ten years
The country always needs a credible opposition .
That's often said but why do you think a decent government needs decent opposition?.... Actually I think they'll do better being able to get on with it, so to speak
because there is always another way of looking at any situation and constructive criticism can lead to better solutions, If you were in charge of something and nobody said hang on thats not right you naturally start to believe every thought you have is right first time instead of taking a second look and finding a better way "
Exactly, there wouldn't have been a degeneration x without the NWO |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"I cannot realistically see how at least a Tory government maybe not this one perse could fail, they've got no credible opposition whatsoever, the liberals are down to about what 8 mps and labour are in a civil war that won't be fixed easily or quickly(there ideologically split on many issues and not just with each other but with many people who are labour voters).
I'd imagine the Tories will have a free ride for at least ten years
The country always needs a credible opposition .
That's often said but why do you think a decent government needs decent opposition?.... Actually I think they'll do better being able to get on with it, so to speak
because there is always another way of looking at any situation and constructive criticism can lead to better solutions, If you were in charge of something and nobody said hang on thats not right you naturally start to believe every thought you have is right first time instead of taking a second look and finding a better way "
.
Opposition parties don't do constructive criticism they do ideological criticism, constructive criticism actually comes from inside the Tory party as in from the stance they've taken.... Oppositions give different thinking about the subject.
I'll give you an example, the war in Iraq, constructive criticism came from the Tories because they thought the idea was good but the way the labour party went about it was wrong...
Today there's nothing on the agenda that either party have in common so there can't be constructive criticism... That can only come from inside the party |
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"Personally, I don't think so.
The Grammar school thing is an ideological policy that Mrs May has dragged into stage from the blind side and I expect more similar ideological Tory policies in the coming months/years. The problem with this is that the Govt has a small majority and once Labour have sorted themselves out, it won't take much to get defeated in a vote of no confidence if these old policies get dragged back to the fore.
I think that Mrs May's strengths will also be her weakness. Growing up in a devoutly religious family and attending convent school and a girls grammar school has probably embedded in her a puritanical view of how the country should be. I am not sure the country wants to be what she thinks it should be.
I think Theresa May's Government is the only stable thing in Parliament at the moment. Probably for the foreseeable future too.
Yes she will have ideas that others disagree with - why would that mean an early election?"
I think an early election is nothing more than wishful thinking on the Remainers part. We have 5 year fixed term parliaments now so I fully expect Theresa May's government to be in power until 2020, and she will deliver brexit before then. There may be a few disgruntled Remain tories on the back benches after the referendum result, but ultimately tories crave power and they all want the party to be the party in power. After all this is the first majority tory government now for a considerable amount of time, they are not going to chuck last year's general election victory down the drain for anything or anyone.
I expect the tories to win the general election in 2020 as the sad and sorry state of the Labour party is nothing more than a joke and the lib dems are not much better either. |
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"Other than Brexit I think all those other things are non-factors.
Frankly, the decision to grant independence to the monetary policy committee had more impact than any of them except Brexit and most voters have no idea what that even means.
I think you are totally missing the point. What you see as non issues are only that while the status quo is maintained, and although any one of them on their own is not enough to trigger a GE if the leaks coming out of Whitehall are correct the plans for privatisation of the NHS will on their own be cause for a GE the plans TM has just announced for education will most certainly provide the extra momentum to trigger a GE.
It is my belief that the tory plan is to deliberately introduce policies that will force a vote of 'no confidence' in the government, then trigger article 50 and hand the poison chalice that is brexit to an incoming labour government who will then have to deal with the upheavals and disappointments that will undoubtedly come with exiting thee EU.
I further believe that JC and the left is being set up as the patsy by to carry the can for the hubris of the right.
Again, I asked for probabilities and nobody wanted to give them. Probably because if you calculated your brier score it would be shocking.
Again I would say you are probably wrong. You are working from the premise that the government are not manipulating policy to cause a vote of no confidence which I maintain is a false premise.
I would suggest that the probability of an early general election is very high. Because there can be no doubt that brexit can not deliver everything expected of it by everyone who voted for it. It is a poison chalice for whoever is in power when it is delivered and like all hot potatoes the art is to pass it on without being seen to be passing it on.
Politicians are past masters of the arts of duplicity and I smell the stench of political skulduggery at play round brexit.
Great, can I have you precise probability please? Then we can start keeping a record and learn who does and doesn't talk nonsense on here...
So a few things:
- what is the probability there will be a general election before 1st January 2020?
- what is the probability that before 1st if January 2020, the NHS will cease to be free at the point of use?
- what is the probability that Jeremy Corbyn wins a general election before 1st January 2020? "
I already have a few points in the bag for my Brier score for correctly predicting Leave would win the EU referendum. I also predicted on here Trump would wipe the floor with Bernie Sanders and Trump would win the Republican nomination in the states.
On your questions.....
1. No realistic chance of a general election before 2020 in my opinion.
2. No chance the NHS will cease to be free at the point of use before 2020. It would be political suicide for any party to do this.
3. Absolutely 0% chance Jeremy Corbyn will win a general election before 2020 because there won't be a general election before 2020.
Now if you want another prediction I will say Donald Trump will win the Presidential election in the USA. The polls are already starting to turn against Hilary Clinton, after the emails scandal and now with rumour about the state of her health all over the airwaves (footage of her almost collapsing while getting into a car today) Trump will go from strength to strength from here on in and Clinton's position will get weaker. Plus Trump's strength is the head to head debates (he already showed this with the head to head Republican debates) and we are still yet to have the first Trump vs Clinton head to head debates where he will destroy Clinton. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"Other than Brexit I think all those other things are non-factors.
Frankly, the decision to grant independence to the monetary policy committee had more impact than any of them except Brexit and most voters have no idea what that even means.
I think you are totally missing the point. What you see as non issues are only that while the status quo is maintained, and although any one of them on their own is not enough to trigger a GE if the leaks coming out of Whitehall are correct the plans for privatisation of the NHS will on their own be cause for a GE the plans TM has just announced for education will most certainly provide the extra momentum to trigger a GE.
It is my belief that the tory plan is to deliberately introduce policies that will force a vote of 'no confidence' in the government, then trigger article 50 and hand the poison chalice that is brexit to an incoming labour government who will then have to deal with the upheavals and disappointments that will undoubtedly come with exiting thee EU.
I further believe that JC and the left is being set up as the patsy by to carry the can for the hubris of the right.
Again, I asked for probabilities and nobody wanted to give them. Probably because if you calculated your brier score it would be shocking.
Again I would say you are probably wrong. You are working from the premise that the government are not manipulating policy to cause a vote of no confidence which I maintain is a false premise.
I would suggest that the probability of an early general election is very high. Because there can be no doubt that brexit can not deliver everything expected of it by everyone who voted for it. It is a poison chalice for whoever is in power when it is delivered and like all hot potatoes the art is to pass it on without being seen to be passing it on.
Politicians are past masters of the arts of duplicity and I smell the stench of political skulduggery at play round brexit.
Great, can I have you precise probability please? Then we can start keeping a record and learn who does and doesn't talk nonsense on here...
So a few things:
- what is the probability there will be a general election before 1st January 2020?
- what is the probability that before 1st if January 2020, the NHS will cease to be free at the point of use?
- what is the probability that Jeremy Corbyn wins a general election before 1st January 2020?
I already have a few points in the bag for my Brier score for correctly predicting Leave would win the EU referendum. I also predicted on here Trump would wipe the floor with Bernie Sanders and Trump would win the Republican nomination in the states.
On your questions.....
1. No realistic chance of a general election before 2020 in my opinion.
2. No chance the NHS will cease to be free at the point of use before 2020. It would be political suicide for any party to do this.
3. Absolutely 0% chance Jeremy Corbyn will win a general election before 2020 because there won't be a general election before 2020.
Now if you want another prediction I will say Donald Trump will win the Presidential election in the USA. The polls are already starting to turn against Hilary Clinton, after the emails scandal and now with rumour about the state of her health all over the airwaves (footage of her almost collapsing while getting into a car today) Trump will go from strength to strength from here on in and Clinton's position will get weaker. Plus Trump's strength is the head to head debates (he already showed this with the head to head Republican debates) and we are still yet to have the first Trump vs Clinton head to head debates where he will destroy Clinton. "
You sir, sound like a perfect candidate for our game: https://m.fabswingers.com/forum/politics/548797 |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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Forgive me I haven't read all the Thread but I only really needed to see the false assumptions made in the OP to make these simple comments:
Losing a vote on Grammar Schools is a non event. It was not in the Manifesto and it is not the creation of a new regime as presented by the OP. (No surprise their then). The PM has said there is a place for a new style Grammar School and in no way suggested the replacement of Comprehensives.
There can be no General election until May 2020 by Act of Parliament. Even if the PM loses a Vote of Confidence that does not presume an election. The PM would resign and the Queen would invite someone who WOULD have the confidence of the House and appoint them. If there is no one then it is the Queen who dissolves Parliament and calls the election. That is how it works.
The above assumes the Tory PM will lose a Vote of Confidence. The last time that happened was in WWII when Chamberlain lost one. Of course a Labour PM lost on in 1979 (Callaghan). Such a vote is very tribal and she has a majority. And someone saying earlier she will lose such a vote also assumes that every Labour Turkey (sorry MP) will vote for Xmas ... |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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...and one of usual suspects mentioning Scotland made me smile. Firstly it is up to the UK PM and not Ms Sturgeon whether a Referendum can take place in Scotland. She has every precedent to say they had that vote 2 years ago.
And if one was called I am not sure the Scots would be daft enough to have Scotland sail off into the North Sea unsupported as it has been by the UK lifebelt. The simple fact that Ms Sturgeon is lying to the Scottish people about is that without the rUK Scotland would have no Currency, no Bank of Settlement, (and therefore no credit rating), no EU membership, a starting debt of 8% of £1.6 Trillion = £129 Billion and an annual additional debt of £15 Billion. Unless each Scottish taxpayer stumps up and extra £5,250 each. The IFS is saying the Scottish deficit will be over £12 Bn in 2020 or 6% of GDP worth £204 Bn.
A Government of an independent Scotland will also have to find the £10,374 per person that the UK spends on each of the 5.4 Mn Scottish people. Or 56 Bn.
And all this has to be achieved with an economy that shrank by 1% in 2015 and only grew by about 4% since 2009 compared to the UK figure of 23%
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/may/04/scottish-economy-grows-far-more-slowly-than-uk-as-a-whole
She promises a Scottish Socialist Nirvana but the reality is a basket case economy within a year... So I hardly think there will be any 'IndyRef2' before 2020. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"...and one of usual suspects mentioning Scotland made me smile. Firstly it is up to the UK PM and not Ms Sturgeon whether a Referendum can take place in Scotland. She has every precedent to say they had that vote 2 years ago.
And if one was called I am not sure the Scots would be daft enough to have Scotland sail off into the North Sea unsupported as it has been by the UK lifebelt. The simple fact that Ms Sturgeon is lying to the Scottish people about is that without the rUK Scotland would have no Currency, no Bank of Settlement, (and therefore no credit rating), no EU membership, a starting debt of 8% of £1.6 Trillion = £129 Billion and an annual additional debt of £15 Billion. Unless each Scottish taxpayer stumps up and extra £5,250 each. The IFS is saying the Scottish deficit will be over £12 Bn in 2020 or 6% of GDP worth £204 Bn.
A Government of an independent Scotland will also have to find the £10,374 per person that the UK spends on each of the 5.4 Mn Scottish people. Or 56 Bn.
And all this has to be achieved with an economy that shrank by 1% in 2015 and only grew by about 4% since 2009 compared to the UK figure of 23%
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/may/04/scottish-economy-grows-far-more-slowly-than-uk-as-a-whole
She promises a Scottish Socialist Nirvana but the reality is a basket case economy within a year... So I hardly think there will be any 'IndyRef2' before 2020."
Jeez, the chip on your shoulder grows bigger every day |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"...and one of usual suspects mentioning Scotland made me smile. Firstly it is up to the UK PM and not Ms Sturgeon whether a Referendum can take place in Scotland. She has every precedent to say they had that vote 2 years ago.
And if one was called I am not sure the Scots would be daft enough to have Scotland sail off into the North Sea unsupported as it has been by the UK lifebelt. The simple fact that Ms Sturgeon is lying to the Scottish people about is that without the rUK Scotland would have no Currency, no Bank of Settlement, (and therefore no credit rating), no EU membership, a starting debt of 8% of £1.6 Trillion = £129 Billion and an annual additional debt of £15 Billion. Unless each Scottish taxpayer stumps up and extra £5,250 each. The IFS is saying the Scottish deficit will be over £12 Bn in 2020 or 6% of GDP worth £204 Bn.
A Government of an independent Scotland will also have to find the £10,374 per person that the UK spends on each of the 5.4 Mn Scottish people. Or 56 Bn.
And all this has to be achieved with an economy that shrank by 1% in 2015 and only grew by about 4% since 2009 compared to the UK figure of 23%
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/may/04/scottish-economy-grows-far-more-slowly-than-uk-as-a-whole
She promises a Scottish Socialist Nirvana but the reality is a basket case economy within a year... So I hardly think there will be any 'IndyRef2' before 2020.
Jeez, the chip on your shoulder grows bigger every day"
Do all Scots call a factual statement a 'chip on your shoulder'?
Look it is quite OK for a Scot to admit the SNP are a bunch of wazzocks. It really is. Come out into the sunlight dear lad ...  |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"Personally, I don't think so.
The Grammar school thing is an ideological policy that Mrs May has dragged into stage from the blind side and I expect more similar ideological Tory policies in the coming months/years. The problem with this is that the Govt has a small majority and once Labour have sorted themselves out, it won't take much to get defeated in a vote of no confidence if these old policies get dragged back to the fore.
I think that Mrs May's strengths will also be her weakness. Growing up in a devoutly religious family and attending convent school and a girls grammar school has probably embedded in her a puritanical view of how the country should be. I am not sure the country wants to be what she thinks it should be."
difficult to project what will happen tomorrow, never mind a few years in the future |
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