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Those chaps at the IMF
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Only a few months back the IMF 'experts' were predicting the UK economy would be the slowest of all G7 countries. Yet here we are, and UK growth has outpaced every other major advanced economy so far this year, growing by 1.3pc in the first six months of 2024. How did they get it so wrong? |
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By *atEvolutionCouple 5 weeks ago
atlantisEVOLUTION Swingers Club Stoke |
"Only a few months back the IMF 'experts' were predicting the UK economy would be the slowest of all G7 countries. Yet here we are, and UK growth has outpaced every other major advanced economy so far this year, growing by 1.3pc in the first six months of 2024. How did they get it so wrong?"
It's well recognised that the IMF is wrong more often than it is right.
Why? Because they really don't have a crystal ball that works. Another way of saying it is that they really are crap at what they do.
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By (user no longer on site) 5 weeks ago
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Hey, I work in accounting, drawing up budgets and forecasts. Essentially they mean nothing after a month.
When forecasting, usually all you have to go off is prior data, and then factor in things that you know are going to change.
If things change that you are unaware of (which always happens) then your forecast goes out the window |
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By *lfasoCouple 5 weeks ago
South East |
"Only a few months back the IMF 'experts' were predicting the UK economy would be the slowest of all G7 countries. Yet here we are, and UK growth has outpaced every other major advanced economy so far this year, growing by 1.3pc in the first six months of 2024. How did they get it so wrong?"
Careful, you’ll trigger J2N who worships at the alter of experts, economic or climate, regardless of previous inaccuracies. |
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"Only a few months back the IMF 'experts' were predicting the UK economy would be the slowest of all G7 countries. Yet here we are, and UK growth has outpaced every other major advanced economy so far this year, growing by 1.3pc in the first six months of 2024. How did they get it so wrong?"
Yes and Labour said the UK economy is broken and “change” is needed ?? |
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"Only a few months back the IMF 'experts' were predicting the UK economy would be the slowest of all G7 countries. Yet here we are, and UK growth has outpaced every other major advanced economy so far this year, growing by 1.3pc in the first six months of 2024. How did they get it so wrong?"
Brexit bounce, it was going to come at some point… |
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By *otMe66Man 5 weeks ago
Terra Firma |
"Only a few months back the IMF 'experts' were predicting the UK economy would be the slowest of all G7 countries. Yet here we are, and UK growth has outpaced every other major advanced economy so far this year, growing by 1.3pc in the first six months of 2024. How did they get it so wrong?"
I wouldn't write off that prediction just yet, they predicted overall growth of 0.7% for 2024.
We have fiscal promises of labour that may result in less spending, the over inflation pay rises to thousands of public sector workers and fuel prices are on the increase. |
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‘Snap back’
When an economy emerges from a regime that has messed about with it, business confidence is enhanced and the economy grows, as it has in the US.
‘Where’s the delay -labour only JUST got in ‘ I hear you splutter-fortunately it has been apparent for some time that the Con party were washed up -the only question being ‘How big will the majority be’.
The Cons gave an astonishing amount of money to their crooked friends most famously Michelle Moane -but the £37b to Dido Harding’s ‘Track and trace’ project -REALLTrequires a mTrack and Trace’ operation of its own…! |
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"Only a few months back the IMF 'experts' were predicting the UK economy would be the slowest of all G7 countries. Yet here we are, and UK growth has outpaced every other major advanced economy so far this year, growing by 1.3pc in the first six months of 2024. How did they get it so wrong?
I wouldn't write off that prediction just yet, they predicted overall growth of 0.7% for 2024.
We have fiscal promises of labour that may result in less spending, the over inflation pay rises to thousands of public sector workers and fuel prices are on the increase."
What, Labour could yet wreck our robust economic recovery? Would they spend recklessly or something? |
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By *otMe66Man 5 weeks ago
Terra Firma |
"Only a few months back the IMF 'experts' were predicting the UK economy would be the slowest of all G7 countries. Yet here we are, and UK growth has outpaced every other major advanced economy so far this year, growing by 1.3pc in the first six months of 2024. How did they get it so wrong?
I wouldn't write off that prediction just yet, they predicted overall growth of 0.7% for 2024.
We have fiscal promises of labour that may result in less spending, the over inflation pay rises to thousands of public sector workers and fuel prices are on the increase.
What, Labour could yet wreck our robust economic recovery? Would they spend recklessly or something? "
I haven’t got a crystal ball but I can’t imagine the Labour Party making a mountain out of a molehill with reference to a 20 billion shortfall in the budget they knew nothing about 🤥, and then go on to spend another 9.5 billion on over inflation pay rises for the public sector workforce that held the population to ransom, within the first 25 days of government.
I mean that would be a ridiculous thing to suggest. |
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By *irldnCouple 5 weeks ago
Brighton |
"Only a few months back the IMF 'experts' were predicting the UK economy would be the slowest of all G7 countries. Yet here we are, and UK growth has outpaced every other major advanced economy so far this year, growing by 1.3pc in the first six months of 2024. How did they get it so wrong?
I wouldn't write off that prediction just yet, they predicted overall growth of 0.7% for 2024.
We have fiscal promises of labour that may result in less spending, the over inflation pay rises to thousands of public sector workers and fuel prices are on the increase.
What, Labour could yet wreck our robust economic recovery? Would they spend recklessly or something?
I haven’t got a crystal ball but I can’t imagine the Labour Party making a mountain out of a molehill with reference to a 20 billion shortfall in the budget they knew nothing about 🤥, and then go on to spend another 9.5 billion on over inflation pay rises for the public sector workforce that held the population to ransom, within the first 25 days of government.
I mean that would be a ridiculous thing to suggest. "
Erm wasn’t the 9.5bn part of the 20bn and the reason it was a blackhole was because the Tories sat on the pay agreements to do nothing until after the election (knowing it would not be their problem)? |
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"Only a few months back the IMF 'experts' were predicting the UK economy would be the slowest of all G7 countries. Yet here we are, and UK growth has outpaced every other major advanced economy so far this year, growing by 1.3pc in the first six months of 2024. How did they get it so wrong?
I wouldn't write off that prediction just yet, they predicted overall growth of 0.7% for 2024.
We have fiscal promises of labour that may result in less spending, the over inflation pay rises to thousands of public sector workers and fuel prices are on the increase.
What, Labour could yet wreck our robust economic recovery? Would they spend recklessly or something?
I haven’t got a crystal ball but I can’t imagine the Labour Party making a mountain out of a molehill with reference to a 20 billion shortfall in the budget they knew nothing about 🤥, and then go on to spend another 9.5 billion on over inflation pay rises for the public sector workforce that held the population to ransom, within the first 25 days of government.
I mean that would be a ridiculous thing to suggest. "
So we can expect high taxes and reckless spending from Labour? Who'd have thought it. |
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"Only a few months back the IMF 'experts' were predicting the UK economy would be the slowest of all G7 countries. Yet here we are, and UK growth has outpaced every other major advanced economy so far this year, growing by 1.3pc in the first six months of 2024. How did they get it so wrong?"
"The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable" - JK Galbraith |
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They be lucky to last five years I believe everyone should have a decent pay raise but these inflation busting payments they or giving away now g p doctors asking for 11% who next fire service then council workers where does it end |
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By *otMe66Man 5 weeks ago
Terra Firma |
"Only a few months back the IMF 'experts' were predicting the UK economy would be the slowest of all G7 countries. Yet here we are, and UK growth has outpaced every other major advanced economy so far this year, growing by 1.3pc in the first six months of 2024. How did they get it so wrong?
I wouldn't write off that prediction just yet, they predicted overall growth of 0.7% for 2024.
We have fiscal promises of labour that may result in less spending, the over inflation pay rises to thousands of public sector workers and fuel prices are on the increase.
What, Labour could yet wreck our robust economic recovery? Would they spend recklessly or something?
I haven’t got a crystal ball but I can’t imagine the Labour Party making a mountain out of a molehill with reference to a 20 billion shortfall in the budget they knew nothing about 🤥, and then go on to spend another 9.5 billion on over inflation pay rises for the public sector workforce that held the population to ransom, within the first 25 days of government.
I mean that would be a ridiculous thing to suggest.
Erm wasn’t the 9.5bn part of the 20bn and the reason it was a blackhole was because the Tories sat on the pay agreements to do nothing until after the election (knowing it would not be their problem)?"
I believe you're referring to the pay deal recommendations. Ask yourself who agreed to the pay deal and spent the money they claimed they didn’t have on over inflation pay rises? It seems the militant BMA is being rewarded for their extreme negotiation tactics, and this is likely to happen again next year, from information readily available in the public domain.
The headline figure of £9.5 billion, is a well publicised pay deal, we can expect an increase of £11-12 billion in pay rises to other public sector workers for 2024-2025.
What does the general public gain from these above inflation pay rises? We needn't worry it will be less a lot less, as Reeves has indicated that we can expect cuts of between £5.5 billion this year and £8 billion next year.
I call this a sign of things to come—taking and cutting, while claiming there was no choice, when it's clear to anyone looking beyond the headlines that this isn't necessarily true. |
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"Only a few months back the IMF 'experts' were predicting the UK economy would be the slowest of all G7 countries. Yet here we are, and UK growth has outpaced every other major advanced economy so far this year, growing by 1.3pc in the first six months of 2024. How did they get it so wrong?
Yes and Labour said the UK economy is broken and “change” is needed ??"
Ha.have you seen the state of the roads, education, the NHS, councils amd housong recently? |
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"How much longer can labour and others keep on blaming tories
We can keep blaming. They have a lot to answer for
Yeah but didn't the tories inherit a shit show from liebour?"
Hmm.weird that life expectancy has gone down in lots of areas since the coalition took over.
Defo Labour's fault.
People are dying and people still cant notice, nevermind the shit in the rivers.maybe people's noses are blocked too. |
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"Only a few months back the IMF 'experts' were predicting the UK economy would be the slowest of all G7 countries. Yet here we are, and UK growth has outpaced every other major advanced economy so far this year, growing by 1.3pc in the first six months of 2024. How did they get it so wrong?
I wouldn't write off that prediction just yet, they predicted overall growth of 0.7% for 2024.
We have fiscal promises of labour that may result in less spending, the over inflation pay rises to thousands of public sector workers and fuel prices are on the increase.
What, Labour could yet wreck our robust economic recovery? Would they spend recklessly or something?
I haven’t got a crystal ball but I can’t imagine the Labour Party making a mountain out of a molehill with reference to a 20 billion shortfall in the budget they knew nothing about 🤥, and then go on to spend another 9.5 billion on over inflation pay rises for the public sector workforce that held the population to ransom, within the first 25 days of government.
I mean that would be a ridiculous thing to suggest.
Erm wasn’t the 9.5bn part of the 20bn and the reason it was a blackhole was because the Tories sat on the pay agreements to do nothing until after the election (knowing it would not be their problem)?
I believe you're referring to the pay deal recommendations. Ask yourself who agreed to the pay deal and spent the money they claimed they didn’t have on over inflation pay rises? It seems the militant BMA is being rewarded for their extreme negotiation tactics, and this is likely to happen again next year, from information readily available in the public domain.
The headline figure of £9.5 billion, is a well publicised pay deal, we can expect an increase of £11-12 billion in pay rises to other public sector workers for 2024-2025.
What does the general public gain from these above inflation pay rises? We needn't worry it will be less a lot less, as Reeves has indicated that we can expect cuts of between £5.5 billion this year and £8 billion next year.
I call this a sign of things to come—taking and cutting, while claiming there was no choice, when it's clear to anyone looking beyond the headlines that this isn't necessarily true."
Pay inflation is 5.2 in the UK. theyre giving 5% to punlic aector workers who make up most of the workforce.
Doesnt seem fair does it to stop public workers (for at least one year) getting a pay rise which equates tonehat everyone else is getting.
Or just let then eat cake.
If they can afford it.
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By *ermbiMan 5 weeks ago
Ballyshannon |
"How much longer can labour and others keep on blaming tories
We can keep blaming. They have a lot to answer for
Yeah but didn't the tories inherit a shit show from liebour?"
They had 14 years to sort it out. Not fit to govern when they crashed it all. Contributed to using inflation and rising interest rates. We are still paying for it |
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By *ronisMan 5 weeks ago
Edinburgh |
"How much longer can labour and others keep on blaming tories
We can keep blaming. They have a lot to answer for
Yeah but didn't the tories inherit a shit show from liebour?
They had 14 years to sort it out. Not fit to govern when they crashed it all. Contributed to using inflation and rising interest rates. We are still paying for it"
You'll pay for it for a long time Mr. The tories haven't been Tories for years. Just labour by another name. High taxes,over spending, expanding the state sector, wrecking the private sector ( see covid for that little gem).
Now Starmer is in he can finish the job by caving into the unions. |
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By *otMe66Man 4 weeks ago
Terra Firma |
"How much longer can labour and others keep on blaming tories
We can keep blaming. They have a lot to answer for
Yeah but didn't the tories inherit a shit show from liebour?
They had 14 years to sort it out. Not fit to govern when they crashed it all. Contributed to using inflation and rising interest rates. We are still paying for it
You'll pay for it for a long time Mr. The tories haven't been Tories for years. Just labour by another name. High taxes,over spending, expanding the state sector, wrecking the private sector ( see covid for that little gem).
Now Starmer is in he can finish the job by caving into the unions."
it only took 25 days to cave in, we have more to come in m opinion and we will then see if the IMF are more right than wrong with their forecast |
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By *ronisMan 4 weeks ago
Edinburgh |
"How much longer can labour and others keep on blaming tories
We can keep blaming. They have a lot to answer for
Yeah but didn't the tories inherit a shit show from liebour?
They had 14 years to sort it out. Not fit to govern when they crashed it all. Contributed to using inflation and rising interest rates. We are still paying for it
You'll pay for it for a long time Mr. The tories haven't been Tories for years. Just labour by another name. High taxes,over spending, expanding the state sector, wrecking the private sector ( see covid for that little gem).
Now Starmer is in he can finish the job by caving into the unions.
it only took 25 days to cave in, we have more to come in m opinion and we will then see if the IMF are more right than wrong with their forecast "
You know what's coming. Read the history books. It'll be a re run of the 70s. Garbage left to rot, 3 day week, unions running the country ,sky high taxes and inflation. Same socialist bs. They never learn. |
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You know what's coming. Read the history books. It'll be a re run of the 70s. Garbage left to rot, 3 day week, unions running the country ,sky high taxes and inflation. Same socialist bs. They never learn."
I remember the 3-day week very well as I was working in a factory making televisions in Croydon. Ted Heath was PM, the TORIES were in power...
The political problems in the 60s and70s were due to weak governments on both sides, with small majorities floundering from one crisis to another.
Despite this Harold Wilson (Labour) was a great reformer and brought in much of the equality legislation we benefit from today, equal pay from women, disability recognition, gay rights etc. Etc.
You might actually benefit from reading the history books!
Unlike the 1970s Labour now has a massive majority to carry out the policies they were elected on. Those include amongst other things better pay and better workers rights.
We won, you lost get over it.  |
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In the 1970s trade unions could take on a weak government and win. Thatcher changed that through tougher laws requiring ballots and banning secondary picketing.
We don't have a weak government far from it, Labour has settled the ASLEF and Junior Doctors strikes with pay increases below the rate of inflation for the relevant pay periods in question.
Labour has also agreed with the Independent pay review bodies and honoured their recommendations.
Labour hasn't caved in, just resolved two long running pay disputes as they said they would. |
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By *otMe66Man 4 weeks ago
Terra Firma |
"In the 1970s trade unions could take on a weak government and win. Thatcher changed that through tougher laws requiring ballots and banning secondary picketing.
We don't have a weak government far from it, Labour has settled the ASLEF and Junior Doctors strikes with pay increases below the rate of inflation for the relevant pay periods in question.
Labour has also agreed with the Independent pay review bodies and honoured their recommendations.
Labour hasn't caved in, just resolved two long running pay disputes as they said they would."
Depends on what side of the fence you sit to call it caved in or labour settling a dispute?
The BMA from my perspective are and will continue to be an unreasonable union to deal with.
They hardened my view of unions, which was until their outrageously dangerous strikes and demands, tepid and not of concern to me, now that has changed and not for the better.
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