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The french election.
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By *hagTonight OP Man 21 weeks ago
From the land of haribos. |
It is election in france on sunday 30 june to 7th july and macron have called a snap election.
The reason he calls the snap election is because le pens party makes historic gains in the eu elections, the national rally party gained 31.5% of support in france according to exit polls.
Macron said that he would stay in office until his second term ends in may 2027, the end of his second term, regardless of who wins the snap election.
Opinion polls suggest the rn is set to achieve its best ever score in the legislative vote, potentially giving it a shot at naming a prime minister and it is said that it could be to jordan bardella.
What is your view about it, is it a good move that macron did or is it a gamble proving a gift to marine le pen, also should he stay in office if he loses or should he leave, who do you think will win it? I think that the he might lose if the other parties goes together  |
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By (user no longer on site) 21 weeks ago
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Historically when it comes down to it the French ultimately shy away from electing Le Pen.
But sooner or later the situation in France will be so bad that the electorate will elect her or someone like her. It’s just a case of timing.
Interestingly her party scores particularly well among young people.
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By *atEvolutionCouple 21 weeks ago
atlantisEVOLUTION Swingers Club. Stoke |
She won't lead her party into power - it just won't happen. French citizens are rightfully annoyed with Macron (over many issues, over a long period of time) but at the same time they are not stupid.
Some people think that just because her party is rising in the polls, that this is the clearest indicator that France wants an Ultra Right Wing Party in power. They don't.
It's simply a Reform mirror of the way French people are feeling at the moment and as such - Reform won't get in, NR won't get in.
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By *coptoCouple 21 weeks ago
Côte d'Azur & Great Yarmouth |
He's took a gamble that the Populist "spike" would be ended and common sense prevail.
But it could backfire not 'cos of the principle (Nigel Farage is great entertainment but who'd want him to be Prime Minister and represent our country?) but because of the timing: European Football, Olympic Games, immigrant and terrorist concerns etc. is felt by the man-in-the-street to be NOT an appropriate time to dissolve Parliament and dilute Police effectiveness. |
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By *deepdiveMan 21 weeks ago
France / Birmingham |
"Whether it's a good move or bad depends on outcome of the election and opinion polls are hard to go by these days. But if he loses, I believe he must give up power "
No, he doesn't need to.
He can stay as President until 2027 whether he has a majority or not.
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"Whether it's a good move or bad depends on outcome of the election and opinion polls are hard to go by these days. But if he loses, I believe he must give up power
No, he doesn't need to.
He can stay as President until 2027 whether he has a majority or not.
"
I'm not sure how it works in France but what's the point in an election if he ignores the result? |
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"Whether it's a good move or bad depends on outcome of the election and opinion polls are hard to go by these days. But if he loses, I believe he must give up power
No, he doesn't need to.
He can stay as President until 2027 whether he has a majority or not.
"
He doesn't have to, legally speaking. But I just personally believe he should. |
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"Whether it's a good move or bad depends on outcome of the election and opinion polls are hard to go by these days. But if he loses, I believe he must give up power
No, he doesn't need to.
He can stay as President until 2027 whether he has a majority or not.
I'm not sure how it works in France but what's the point in an election if he ignores the result?"
As far as I understand the election is for parliament not for the president which is a separate thing and not due for a few years. Basically he gets to keep his job while putting others at risk. I suppose he could resign early but no indication he will. Apparently he already struggles to get things through parliament so maybe he thinks a snap election will help. Massive state debts and also their share of ever increasing EU debt makes it hard to splash the cash for the feel good factor, pre election. |
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By *ermbiMan 21 weeks ago
Ballyshannon |
"Whether it's a good move or bad depends on outcome of the election and opinion polls are hard to go by these days. But if he loses, I believe he must give up power
No, he doesn't need to.
He can stay as President until 2027 whether he has a majority or not.
I'm not sure how it works in France but what's the point in an election if he ignores the result?
As far as I understand the election is for parliament not for the president which is a separate thing and not due for a few years. Basically he gets to keep his job while putting others at risk. I suppose he could resign early but no indication he will. Apparently he already struggles to get things through parliament so maybe he thinks a snap election will help. Massive state debts and also their share of ever increasing EU debt makes it hard to splash the cash for the feel good factor, pre election."
Yes he remains as President if a different government is formed. He may be betting on Le Pen screwing it up big time before the presidential election to gain more ground for himself and his party before next gen election. A huge gamble |
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By (user no longer on site) 21 weeks ago
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"She won't lead her party into power - it just won't happen. French citizens are rightfully annoyed with Macron (over many issues, over a long period of time) but at the same time they are not stupid.
Some people think that just because her party is rising in the polls, that this is the clearest indicator that France wants an Ultra Right Wing Party in power. They don't.
It's simply a Reform mirror of the way French people are feeling at the moment and as such - Reform won't get in, NR won't get in.
"
What was your prediction in the run up to the Brexit vote? |
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The 2 leading parties after round one are far left and far right. Despite Johnny TN's suggestions to the contrary, I'm not far right are neither are any of those reform voters I know so this is a major concern. Worrying times but the blame lies solely with the fools who have been in power and failed miserably to serve their counties |
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"The 2 leading parties after round one are far left and far right. Despite Johnny TN's suggestions to the contrary, I'm not far right are neither are any of those reform voters I know "
Why are you bringing me into this. I haven't participated in this thread?
I've never commented on your political persuasions.
I'm sure naming and attempted shaming isn't allowed on the forums. |
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By *hagTonight OP Man 20 weeks ago
From the land of haribos. |
The far right wins in the first round, the exit polls suggest that rn took about 34 percent of votes, whilst macrons centrist alliance slumped to third with 20.3 percent vote, if the far right wins it, would it mean that macron would have to work with them? Le pen vows to work with macron if she wins |
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"The far right wins in the first round, the exit polls suggest that rn took about 34 percent of votes, whilst macrons centrist alliance slumped to third with 20.3 percent vote, if the far right wins it, would it mean that macron would have to work with them? Le pen vows to work with macron if she wins "
They will lose the second round. Macron and the left wing party will collude to ensure that one of their partys' votes go to the other. |
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"They will lose the second round. Macron and the left wing party will collude to ensure that one of their partys' votes go to the other."
If the centrist candidate pulls out, leaving the electorate with a choice between far left and far right, what makes so convinced that they'll go left? |
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"They will lose the second round. Macron and the left wing party will collude to ensure that one of their partys' votes go to the other.
If the centrist candidate pulls out, leaving the electorate with a choice between far left and far right, what makes so convinced that they'll go left?"
Just vibes
The far left party announced that they will drop out of places where they are at third places. So I believe the centrist and the far left are acting as a de facto coalition and that will influence people to an extent. |
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In 300 out of 577 constituencies, candidates from all three parties have qualified for the second round. In those 300, 200 candidates have opted to withdraw hoping that their voters will choose the non-RN option. |
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"They will lose the second round. Macron and the left wing party will collude to ensure that one of their partys' votes go to the other.
If the centrist candidate pulls out, leaving the electorate with a choice between far left and far right, what makes so convinced that they'll go left?"
"Just vibes
The far left party announced that they will drop out of places where they are at third places. So I believe the centrist and the far left are acting as a de facto coalition and that will influence people to an extent."
If the far left party in a constituency pulls out, I can imagine all their voters changing to the centre party, to keep the right out. But if the centre party pulls out and the centrist voters have a choice between far left, and far right, I'm not convinced that left looks more attractive. I suspect that they'll all just stay at home, making it more likely that RN will win.
We'll soon see. |
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"The 2 leading parties after round one are far left and far right. Despite Johnny TN's suggestions to the contrary, I'm not far right are neither are any of those reform voters I know
Why are you bringing me into this. I haven't participated in this thread?
I've never commented on your political persuasions.
I'm sure naming and attempted shaming isn't allowed on the forums. "
You have more than suggested that anyone voting for reform is racist. Work it out |
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"The 2 leading parties after round one are far left and far right. Despite Johnny TN's suggestions to the contrary, I'm not far right are neither are any of those reform voters I know
Why are you bringing me into this. I haven't participated in this thread?
I've never commented on your political persuasions.
I'm sure naming and attempted shaming isn't allowed on the forums.
You have more than suggested that anyone voting for reform is racist. Work it out "
No.
Any chance you could stop making up bullshit about me.
Stop trying to name and shame me.
Stop the personal attacks in threads I haven't been involved in.
Cheers.  |
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By *abioMan 19 weeks ago
Newcastle and Gateshead |
"Some more projections, from Elabe:
Left-green New Popular Front: 175-205 seats
Macron’s allies: 150-175 seats
Far right National Front and allies: 115-150"
There is a theory going around…. The turnout for this 2nd round of voting has gone through the roof…
So the theory is that people who stayed home last week saw what happened in round 1… thought “holy shit!” … and this week went out and actually voted! |
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By *deepdiveMan 19 weeks ago
France / Birmingham |
A good result (unless you are right wing) in France.
A likely coalition between Macron's centralist party and the Left Wing Alliance.
Bad news for Moscow and quite a turnaround from projections or what was expected after the first round of voting a week ago.
Full results will be in tomorrow but getting agreement across the new coalition, especially in the choice of a Prime Minister will take longer. |
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"A good result (unless you are right wing) in France.
A likely coalition between Macron's centralist party and the Left Wing Alliance.
Bad news for Moscow and quite a turnaround from projections or what was expected after the first round of voting a week ago.
Full results will be in tomorrow but getting agreement across the new coalition, especially in the choice of a Prime Minister will take longer."
Will this result make it easier for Macron to get his policies through the house in the future?. It was one of his complaints before calling the election that parliament was sort of stuck and not getting done what he wanted |
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"The 2 leading parties after round one are far left and far right. Despite Johnny TN's suggestions to the contrary, I'm not far right are neither are any of those reform voters I know
Why are you bringing me into this. I haven't participated in this thread?
I've never commented on your political persuasions.
I'm sure naming and attempted shaming isn't allowed on the forums.
You have more than suggested that anyone voting for reform is racist. Work it out
No.
Any chance you could stop making up bullshit about me.
Stop trying to name and shame me.
Stop the personal attacks in threads I haven't been involved in.
Cheers. "
If I'm doing as you say, report me and if I'm guilty, I'll take ban. Otherwise, I suggest you wind your neck in |
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"The 2 leading parties after round one are far left and far right. Despite Johnny TN's suggestions to the contrary, I'm not far right are neither are any of those reform voters I know
Why are you bringing me into this. I haven't participated in this thread?
I've never commented on your political persuasions.
I'm sure naming and attempted shaming isn't allowed on the forums.
You have more than suggested that anyone voting for reform is racist. Work it out
No.
Any chance you could stop making up bullshit about me.
Stop trying to name and shame me.
Stop the personal attacks in threads I haven't been involved in.
Cheers.
If I'm doing as you say, report me and if I'm guilty, I'll take ban. Otherwise, I suggest you wind your neck in"
Why would I want to report you?
Surely it's easier to ask you politely. |
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"
If the far left party in a constituency pulls out, I can imagine all their voters changing to the centre party, to keep the right out. But if the centre party pulls out and the centrist voters have a choice between far left, and far right, I'm not convinced that left looks more attractive. I suspect that they'll all just stay at home, making it more likely that RN will win.
We'll soon see."
Indeed and I think the results are pretty clear. Turnout has gone through the roof, galvanising centrists and those who did not vote in the 1st round last week to stop and think for a moment whether they wanted National Rally running the country. And the answer is a resounding no. And I cannot say I blame them. |
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"
If the far left party in a constituency pulls out, I can imagine all their voters changing to the centre party, to keep the right out. But if the centre party pulls out and the centrist voters have a choice between far left, and far right, I'm not convinced that left looks more attractive. I suspect that they'll all just stay at home, making it more likely that RN will win.
We'll soon see.
Indeed and I think the results are pretty clear. Turnout has gone through the roof, galvanising centrists and those who did not vote in the 1st round last week to stop and think for a moment whether they wanted National Rally running the country. And the answer is a resounding no. And I cannot say I blame them."
The exit polls look positive. |
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By *abioMan 19 weeks ago
Newcastle and Gateshead |
"A good result (unless you are right wing) in France.
A likely coalition between Macron's centralist party and the Left Wing Alliance.
Bad news for Moscow and quite a turnaround from projections or what was expected after the first round of voting a week ago.
Full results will be in tomorrow but getting agreement across the new coalition, especially in the choice of a Prime Minister will take longer.
Will this result make it easier for Macron to get his policies through the house in the future?. It was one of his complaints before calling the election that parliament was sort of stuck and not getting done what he wanted"
Sort of….
Macron’s theory for disbanding parliament now was to call the far right’s bluff in that if they were in a position to actually govern or win it would freak out enough of the public.. or they would be so inept at actually trying to govern that it would put people off voting for them in the presidential election in 2 years time
The pollster and political analyst thought he was mad, round 1 made it look like it would be a bad decision, but at the end of the day he was right!
Since it’s almost a 3 way split … and no one will work with FN, macron can either try to run the country as a minority government from centre based parties, which is going to piss off the left…. Or a coalition of the left with macron’s party
And the rules in France say macron cannot call another election for a year, so they can’t just redo! |
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"I love the way people think left is good and right is bad.
"
Which people though ?
.
I think most rational folks would realise extremes at either end of the political spectrum pose their own risks via their ideologies.
.
That's why it's important for the centre ground to gain mass and momentum.
.
However, when faced with a binary choice, regardless of whether you know the full details of the party involved, left-leaning parties tend to veer towards less authoritarianism, and more focus on the individual / their rights.
.
For some, choosing the left is the lesser of two evils, especially if it's a tactical choice to deny the right. |
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"I love the way people think left is good and right is bad.
Which people though ?
.
I think most rational folks would realise extremes at either end of the political spectrum pose their own risks via their ideologies.
.
That's why it's important for the centre ground to gain mass and momentum.
.
However, when faced with a binary choice, regardless of whether you know the full details of the party involved, left-leaning parties tend to veer towards less authoritarianism, and more focus on the individual / their rights.
.
For some, choosing the left is the lesser of two evils, especially if it's a tactical choice to deny the right."
Left wing focuses on individual and less authoritarianism? It's almost like USSR never existed |
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By *atEvolutionCouple 19 weeks ago
atlantisEVOLUTION Swingers Club. Stoke |
"She won't lead her party into power - it just won't happen. French citizens are rightfully annoyed with Macron (over many issues, over a long period of time) but at the same time they are not stupid.
Some people think that just because her party is rising in the polls, that this is the clearest indicator that France wants an Ultra Right Wing Party in power. They don't.
It's simply a Reform mirror of the way French people are feeling at the moment and as such - Reform won't get in, NR won't get in.
To add . . .
Nouveau Front Populaire coalition are the most likely if France is going to make the change from Ensemble Citoyens.
"
Je vous l'avais bien dit - I told you so
Ooo I should have made the bet lol.  |
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By *atEvolutionCouple 19 weeks ago
atlantisEVOLUTION Swingers Club. Stoke |
Well. It's more a case of not wanting Macron and what his party represents - and that's the kicker about having a Presidency and a Governmental party system.
So who do you go for if you want hate Macron and his elitist ideology? You vote down the Party he represents, of course.
When you don't want Far Right - then only Left is left.
Do remember that Nouveau Front Populaire coalition are a coalition of Leftist Parties, as such they will argue and debate over everything and be much less effective than any single party could be - Oooo there goes that pr idea again, lol. |
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"Well. It's more a case of not wanting Macron and what his party represents - and that's the kicker about having a Presidency and a Governmental party system.
So who do you go for if you want hate Macron and his elitist ideology? You vote down the Party he represents, of course.
When you don't want Far Right - then only Left is left.
Do remember that Nouveau Front Populaire coalition are a coalition of Leftist Parties, as such they will argue and debate over everything and be much less effective than any single party could be - Oooo there goes that pr idea again, lol. "
Makes sense. I can see why Macron is unpopular - an arrogant 'petite Napoleon' in my book. The odd thing is, even with political chaos, France seems to thrive - presumably a strong civil service running things behind the scenes. |
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By *atEvolutionCouple 19 weeks ago
atlantisEVOLUTION Swingers Club. Stoke |
"Well. It's more a case of not wanting Macron and what his party represents - and that's the kicker about having a Presidency and a Governmental party system.
So who do you go for if you want hate Macron and his elitist ideology? You vote down the Party he represents, of course.
When you don't want Far Right - then only Left is left.
Do remember that Nouveau Front Populaire coalition are a coalition of Leftist Parties, as such they will argue and debate over everything and be much less effective than any single party could be - Oooo there goes that pr idea again, lol.
Makes sense. I can see why Macron is unpopular - an arrogant 'petite Napoleon' in my book. The odd thing is, even with political chaos, France seems to thrive - presumably a strong civil service running things behind the scenes."
Walk around the streets of Paris (no not like that lol) and listen to what people say about how hard they have to work, many six days a week in service industries, shops, cafe's, restaurents, utility service like refuse removal, steet cleaning, water, etc etc etc. There is a strong viseral feeling that their pay and conditions have been eroded while Macrons 'copains' are prospering, greatly.
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When people ask why the French would choose the far left to the far right I think we have to appreciate the fact that the country was occupied by the far right, something this country avoided. That fact probably impacts their outlook on politics. |
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By *deepdiveMan 19 weeks ago
France / Birmingham |
Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella’s party was swept to an unlikely third place in the second round of parliamentary elections by a wave of popular revulsion.
People voted tactically in their millions for politicians they disliked to defeat politicians that they detested. |
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By *atEvolutionCouple 19 weeks ago
atlantisEVOLUTION Swingers Club. Stoke |
"Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella’s party was swept to an unlikely third place in the second round of parliamentary elections by a wave of popular revulsion.
"
Nothing 'unlikely' about it. She was never going to be anything but third place. |
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By *deepdiveMan 19 weeks ago
France / Birmingham |
"Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella’s party was swept to an unlikely third place in the second round of parliamentary elections by a wave of popular revulsion.
Nothing 'unlikely' about it. She was never going to be anything but third place."
Do you really believe that - you are obviously better informed than most of the French Citizens including Le Pen and her supporters.
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By *atEvolutionCouple 19 weeks ago
atlantisEVOLUTION Swingers Club. Stoke |
"Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella’s party was swept to an unlikely third place in the second round of parliamentary elections by a wave of popular revulsion.
Nothing 'unlikely' about it. She was never going to be anything but third place.
Do you really believe that - you are obviously better informed than most of the French Citizens including Le Pen and her supporters.
"
I don't need to, and I predicted it clearly days before they voted in the first round - and that is the actual result.
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By *atEvolutionCouple 19 weeks ago
atlantisEVOLUTION Swingers Club. Stoke |
"Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella’s party was swept to an unlikely third place in the second round of parliamentary elections by a wave of popular revulsion.
Nothing 'unlikely' about it. She was never going to be anything but third place.
Do you really believe that - you are obviously better informed than most of the French Citizens including Le Pen and her supporters.
I don't need to, and I predicted it clearly days before they voted in the first round - and that is the actual result.
"
Ps. Half French here, with family living in Paris and Lyon.  |
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"Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella’s party was swept to an unlikely third place in the second round of parliamentary elections by a wave of popular revulsion.
Nothing 'unlikely' about it. She was never going to be anything but third place."
I love the 3rd place answer. Didn't she actually get the most votes? |
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By *coptoCouple 19 weeks ago
Côte d'Azur & Great Yarmouth |
"Interesting that the far right vote held up pretty well in Southern France, where the Vichy government ruled during WWII"
NOT being argumentative (locally the RN vote was so overwhelming they didn't bother with a second round), but how do you make that connection?
More likely the "immigration problem" and crime that's more visible in Southern France? |
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""Interesting that the far right vote held up pretty well in Southern France, where the Vichy government ruled during WWII"
NOT being argumentative (locally the RN vote was so overwhelming they didn't bother with a second round), but how do you make that connection?
More likely the "immigration problem" and crime that's more visible in Southern France?"
I’m not saying it’s causation but there’s definitely correlation. |
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"A good result (unless you are right wing) in France.
A likely coalition between Macron's centralist party and the Left Wing Alliance.
Bad news for Moscow and quite a turnaround from projections or what was expected after the first round of voting a week ago.
Full results will be in tomorrow but getting agreement across the new coalition, especially in the choice of a Prime Minister will take longer.
Will this result make it easier for Macron to get his policies through the house in the future?. It was one of his complaints before calling the election that parliament was sort of stuck and not getting done what he wanted
Sort of….
Macron’s theory for disbanding parliament now was to call the far right’s bluff in that if they were in a position to actually govern or win it would freak out enough of the public.. or they would be so inept at actually trying to govern that it would put people off voting for them in the presidential election in 2 years time
The pollster and political analyst thought he was mad, round 1 made it look like it would be a bad decision, but at the end of the day he was right!
Since it’s almost a 3 way split … and no one will work with FN, macron can either try to run the country as a minority government from centre based parties, which is going to piss off the left…. Or a coalition of the left with macron’s party
And the rules in France say macron cannot call another election for a year, so they can’t just redo! "
Yep, sounds logical and explains why Le Penn's party said before the election that they would not govern unless they had a majority. All looks a bit stuck at present but probably some horse trading going on in the background |
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