FabSwingers.com > Forums > Politics > Did someone mention Blackouts? again..
Did someone mention Blackouts? again..
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By *rFunBoy OP Man
over a year ago
Longridge |
I'm sure I saw in the News that National Grid called off an Energy supply shortage Alert at 3:05pm yesterday after automatically issuing a warning that demand might outstrip supply around 2pm.
Blackouts were not forecast until January, but seems many dodged a bullet last night, thanks to France stepping in and reversing their 3gwh Import from the UK to supply us 3gwh instead.
Seemed that demand peaked at 40gwh at a time Wind generation fell to 5gwh. Seems the UK's Robust and Diverse Energy system is already creaking and Cold Weather has not yet set in - although forecast in the next few days is temperatures dropping.
Is it not strange that this only got reported after the event, not prior to allow mitigation. Is that how it will work.
No Warning - Bang, lights out at tea time?
Frickin Scaremongerers again.. |
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By *rFunBoy OP Man
over a year ago
Longridge |
Yep - it's how COVID was handled.
Tony Blair did pass laws during the first hours of 9/11 - that became the "good time to announce bad news" scandal that in order to avoid panic such as impending Asteroid Strike - that nothing would be reported. |
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By *rFunBoy OP Man
over a year ago
Longridge |
I've had plenty of mocking- thick skinned though.
I've signed up to NationalGrid Alerts, at least next time, I'll have Gas Heaters, Generators, Solar Battery and bottled water ready with plenty of time to fill with diesel.
Strangely, a Councillor I met four months ago who said it would never happen, has contacted me this morning to arrange an urgent meeting for contingency planning.
Is the penny finally starting to drop? |
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It is important that the public needs to be fed rumours of potential electricity shortage.
Otherwise, if the supply industry admitted that they won't go short, they could be open to questions about why is their product so expensive if it not in short supply.
Think about it.
Also, a massive trade in solar panels, batteries, invertors and generators has sprung up because of the scare.
Doubtless this is lining many pockets. |
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By *rFunBoy OP Man
over a year ago
Longridge |
It is also important not to fall for disinformation, that claims, claims of shortages are fake news and conspiracy to line the pockets of renewables companies.
The truth is in the data, there would not be enough production in this country on a 'full load' cold Winters night when the wind isn't blowing as we may have seen last night - we rely too much on Imports during times of high demand.
We were bailed out by other countries, and may not be so lucky one night when other countries are also struggling with their own supplies ir dare I say it, if Interconnectors were not available.
I wonder if the same 'Rose Tinted' views that the government are pushing and want you to believe, will remain the morning after the first rationing event has occurred.
https://grid.iamkate.com/
This country desperately needs investment in higher generation capacity of any kind, but preferable for the planet and reduced energy prices, that this comes from renewable sources and not more Gas fired plants.
Let's see what happens between now and the end of February as I'm sure more alerts will be issued. If supply can't be met by our own generation and Interconnectors or by reducing demand - then there are only two logical outcomes, rationing or system failure.
I very much doubt National Grid is running any kind of scaremongering campaign to force renewable pocket lining. Its just a simple matter of monitoring and predicting supply and demand and these alerts are the warning system of potential shortages.
Fear of Control Conspiracy is a dangerous state of mind. |
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By *rFunBoy OP Man
over a year ago
Longridge |
"Think about it.
Also, a massive trade in solar panels, batteries, invertors and generators has sprung up because of the scare."
Scare?
Have you not seen the price of Energy? Rising again 20% in April to £3000 per average household then as announced tonight- NO further government help into 2024, regardless of the price of Energy.
You either save-it or pay for it. I choose to make and use my own, lots of it and not save it.
I didn't install dreaded Solar, Battery, Hot Water and Heat Pumps to line someone's pockets. I've done it to reduce my Energy Bills to £500 per year and be isolated from market pricing as much as possible.
Prices at this level are expected to last 5 years, reducing slightly each year as those greedy renewable companies put more on the Grid.
Drastic increases in renewable sales is for one reason only, to take back control and stop throwing hard earned money into the pockets of Energy companies.
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By *rFunBoy OP Man
over a year ago
Longridge |
Another interesting day..
Monday 28th Nov at 13:37
Text message arrives with supply margin alert that may not meet demand at 6pm.
Not long later at 14:10, alert cancelled, assuming additional supply has been found to cover the 6pm period - it was - from the EU.
Looking at generation and UK consumption at 18:00: Demand was 41GWh.
Wind and Solar combined was supplying 4.8% of UK power.
Gas was running at 56% supplying the usual 22GWh.
Norway, France, Belgium, Ireland and Netherlands Undersea Electricity Interconnectors, were running at full power Importing into the UK.
It seems that like last Tuesday, this evening, reliance on the EU to provide additional power was the way rationing or people being paid up to £100, like myself to cut consumption in order to reduce Grid load was avoided.
At 19:00, wind dropped to 1.6% of UK demand, Gas portion increased to 59% due to a 3GWh reduction in demand but still supplying 22GWh of power.
UK is documented at 32GWh Gas generation capacity but yet to see it over 22GWh, so either it is restrictions in Gas supply or there is just not enough generation available.
At 23:30, demand tailed off to 27GWh with Gas now supplying 70% of UK power at 19GWh with supplimential coal supply 4% pushing UK CO2 emissions higher.
So, for the second time in 6 days, supply alerts have been issued, Interconnectors have been maxed out, Wind is almost non existent that it is now starting to get colder with a forecast of High Pressure meaning foggy and still air that demand will increase on an already creaking system.
The two alerts we've seen this last 7 days weren't expected until late December/ January and not even December yet and Autumn has been relatively mild and windy.
Europe is about to get the same cold weather as we are, this means their electricity demand will also increase and is whether there is enough spare they can send our way.
This will be an interesting week.. as low Wind and Solar means a higher demand on Gas fired generation for an extended period. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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The tories need to be on point, if they hesitate on this this episode is going be added to the long list of failures attributed to the run in government |
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By *rFunBoy OP Man
over a year ago
Longridge |
After the Bullshit response I got from Wallace last week, I'll be the first to go to the Press, should powercuts become reality and people die.
I asked three specific questions and got a reply on "how government were looking into LPG pricing and set an Energy Price Guarantee". |
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Here we all are, sitting at home shivering, determined not to use any more energy than necessary to stay alive, while the suppliers are laughing at us.
They have achieved what they ave always dreamed about. Supply far less of the product and still get payed the same, or more, as when they supplied more.
Every supplier's dream come true. |
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By *rFunBoy OP Man
over a year ago
Longridge |
But isn't it very convenient for government, forcing people to save energy due to being simply unable to afford it.
The real smoke-screen being that if energy was the same price as it was two years ago, population wouldn't be cutting back so hard - if the UK is currently struggling to supply enough now, would there be enough to avoid Blackouts?
You can blame Putin for the High prices, but as it stands, there has been no sabotage and I believe Gas supply is good.
But you cannot blame Putin for lack of supply due to lack of investment in generation infrastructure.
We're living very hands to mouth, last week during the evening alerts had been issued, we only managed to self generate 85% of our needs.
This week, demand is higher and luckily the wind has kept blowing.
Current average 6pm demand is 45GWh with only:
23GWh Gas - 50% of demand
23GWh Wind - 50% of demand
So, Wind is keeping the lights on. What happens if, like the other Tuesday, the wind drops to 4GWh.
To supply 45Gwh with:
23GWh Gas
5GWh Nuclear
4GWh Coal
Still leaves a shortfall for Hydro, Interconnectors, Biomass and Pumped Storage to fill.
These remaining options are not significant supplies. Therefore, if demand rises higher and Wind drops, we might have a few issues with the lights.
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By *rFunBoy OP Man
over a year ago
Longridge |
If it makes you feel better..
Wholesale electricity is around £400 to £600 per MWh - my tariff is 19.9p/kwh - so they are losing up to 20p/KWh on every KWh I use. I rent my EV charger out at 39p/KWh. This is usually around 30kwh per day, meaning I profit on their loss. Sound familiar?
I don't know wholesale Gas prices without looking, but it will be more expensive than the 3.99p/kwh I pay for it, so they'll not be making any profits from me this year or next winter.
I've set the heating to run two hours longer just to hit them harder where it hurts. |
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By *I TwoCouple
over a year ago
PDI 12-26th Nov 24 |
"If it makes you feel better..
Wholesale electricity is around £400 to £600 per MWh - my tariff is 19.9p/kwh - so they are losing up to 20p/KWh on every KWh I use. I rent my EV charger out at 39p/KWh. This is usually around 30kwh per day, meaning I profit on their loss. Sound familiar?
I don't know wholesale Gas prices without looking, but it will be more expensive than the 3.99p/kwh I pay for it, so they'll not be making any profits from me this year or next winter.
I've set the heating to run two hours longer just to hit them harder where it hurts."
I'm sure the many people on here that can't afford to turn on a heater and are freezing will no doubt feel much better now.
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By *rFunBoy OP Man
over a year ago
Longridge |
Life's a Lottery..
I'm aware of people struggling and when highlighted to me, using the equipment I dare not mention here - fix them up 'at cost' and go find the container to hold the fuel at my cost..I've also worked with the council on advising on cheaper cooking and personal heating such as heated bed blankets.
The one thing I cannot get through to deaf ears on, is what preparations to make should the Wind drop during high demand, which is in the forecast.
Double the wind speed, eight times the output, so a small drop in wind the next few days, output will drop off considerably.
The Energy Market alerts that have been in the Press the last couple of weeks have all been due to forecasted Wind output falling.
I did put some great Energy Saving advice on here in March, I doubt anyone took head or even read the advice.
One if these suggestions was a two year Scottish Power deal available at the time. Those I know signed into it are currently getting the EPG price discount of 2p/kwh, but when it rises 20% in April, they will be protected for another Winter.
I also put details of the the Max Output on boilers. My boiler is ticking over at 18% of its max output and wasting little of the Gas going through it. Today, I'll drop it to 12% to see if there is significant impact.
Using Alexa and remote TRVs, one radiator at a time is opened to the system allowing boiler to reach 62'C quickly and compensate for reduced output. After 15 minutes, all selected radiators are active and boiler is doing little work to maintain.
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By *I TwoCouple
over a year ago
PDI 12-26th Nov 24 |
"Life's a Lottery..
I'm aware of people struggling and when highlighted to me, using the equipment I dare not mention here - fix them up 'at cost' and go find the container to hold the fuel at my cost..I've also worked with the council on advising on cheaper cooking and personal heating such as heated bed blankets.
The one thing I cannot get through to deaf ears on, is what preparations to make should the Wind drop during high demand, which is in the forecast.
Double the wind speed, eight times the output, so a small drop in wind the next few days, output will drop off considerably.
The Energy Market alerts that have been in the Press the last couple of weeks have all been due to forecasted Wind output falling.
I did put some great Energy Saving advice on here in March, I doubt anyone took head or even read the advice.
One if these suggestions was a two year Scottish Power deal available at the time. Those I know signed into it are currently getting the EPG price discount of 2p/kwh, but when it rises 20% in April, they will be protected for another Winter.
I also put details of the the Max Output on boilers. My boiler is ticking over at 18% of its max output and wasting little of the Gas going through it. Today, I'll drop it to 12% to see if there is significant impact.
Using Alexa and remote TRVs, one radiator at a time is opened to the system allowing boiler to reach 62'C quickly and compensate for reduced output. After 15 minutes, all selected radiators are active and boiler is doing little work to maintain.
"
Unfortunately some people can't even afford food, clothes nor heat and I'm pretty sure they won't be able to afford Alexa to help reduce their bills. And most of them unfortunately can't afford turn their boiler on never mind run it at a temperature that allows legionaries disease to culture in the hot water tank if they have one.
Belittling them probably doesn't help either.
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