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Everyone have to pay more tax.
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By *hagTonight OP Man
over a year ago
From the land of haribos. |
It comes after liz truss cost the uk £30,000,000,000.
Jeremy hunt has warned everyone will pay more tax and billions will be cut from public spending in his budget this week, he added that some "horrible decicins" will be made, what do you think he means by that and how do you think the budget will look like? |
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"It comes after liz truss cost the uk £30,000,000,000.
Jeremy hunt has warned everyone will pay more tax and billions will be cut from public spending in his budget this week, he added that some "horrible decicins" will be made, what do you think he means by that and how do you think the budget will look like?"
Liz truss has not cost the economy 30bn. This is quite frankly economically illiterate tripe.
Would you like to post how you think she has? |
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Quick questions
Do you welcome the reversal of the national insurance increase.
Do you think interest rate rises are due to a mini budget which came put afternthe rate increase in September. or global factors? |
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By *irldnCouple
over a year ago
Brighton |
"It comes after liz truss cost the uk £30,000,000,000.
Jeremy hunt has warned everyone will pay more tax and billions will be cut from public spending in his budget this week, he added that some "horrible decicins" will be made, what do you think he means by that and how do you think the budget will look like?
Liz truss has not cost the economy 30bn. This is quite frankly economically illiterate tripe.
Would you like to post how you think she has?"
It is universally agreed that the unfunded tax cuts that Truss and Kwartang announced spooked the bonds market and crashed the £. Even though this was short term it dramatically increased the cost of borrowing for the UK Govt and also saw the rating agencies like Moodys downgrade the UK. |
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"It comes after liz truss cost the uk £30,000,000,000.
Jeremy hunt has warned everyone will pay more tax and billions will be cut from public spending in his budget this week, he added that some "horrible decicins" will be made, what do you think he means by that and how do you think the budget will look like?
Liz truss has not cost the economy 30bn. This is quite frankly economically illiterate tripe.
Would you like to post how you think she has?
It is universally agreed that the unfunded tax cuts that Truss and Kwartang announced spooked the bonds market and crashed the £. Even though this was short term it dramatically increased the cost of borrowing for the UK Govt and also saw the rating agencies like Moodys downgrade the UK."
Those markets have unwound. Have a look a tthe data for yourself.
They're nowhere near where they went. And the bofe has made a profit on them.
So sorry. But this is not that. If you've read the article people are using the 30bn from you'd see the article itself doesn't use that as a reason. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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The cost of lockdown crisis deepens. Just at a time when we should be sending tons of money to Ukraine to help protect it's border, military and infrastructure.  |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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The reality is that people don't want to pay more tax but they do want us to keep pouring money down the drain on rubbish public services.
The NHS, which is a mediocre health service, now accounts for 45% of every £ that the government spends.
Lockdown, paying people to sit around doing nothing, foreign aid, spending billions to support foreign wars, free hotels for illegal immigrants, failing to deal with ineffectual public services.
If people are happy to go on supporting all this stuff, then they can expect their taxes to continue rising. |
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By *hagTonight OP Man
over a year ago
From the land of haribos. |
"Expecting middle income and poorer people to suffer whilst the richest are just fine.
This is what people keep voting for. What can you do."
Yes, sadly many dont realise that the tories are for high earners and people will continue to vote themselfes into poverty. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"Expecting middle income and poorer people to suffer whilst the richest are just fine.
This is what people keep voting for. What can you do."
I may consider turning to drink. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
"Expecting middle income and poorer people to suffer whilst the richest are just fine.
This is what people keep voting for. What can you do.
I may consider turning to drink."
But... drink is too expensive now. Curses! |
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By *irldnCouple
over a year ago
Brighton |
"It comes after liz truss cost the uk £30,000,000,000.
Jeremy hunt has warned everyone will pay more tax and billions will be cut from public spending in his budget this week, he added that some "horrible decicins" will be made, what do you think he means by that and how do you think the budget will look like?
Liz truss has not cost the economy 30bn. This is quite frankly economically illiterate tripe.
Would you like to post how you think she has?
It is universally agreed that the unfunded tax cuts that Truss and Kwartang announced spooked the bonds market and crashed the £. Even though this was short term it dramatically increased the cost of borrowing for the UK Govt and also saw the rating agencies like Moodys downgrade the UK.
Those markets have unwound. Have a look a tthe data for yourself.
They're nowhere near where they went. And the bofe has made a profit on them.
So sorry. But this is not that. If you've read the article people are using the 30bn from you'd see the article itself doesn't use that as a reason."
So surely that means the “black hole” Hunt is using to justify austerity 2.0 is either false or not as bad as they are making out no? |
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"It comes after liz truss cost the uk £30,000,000,000.
Jeremy hunt has warned everyone will pay more tax and billions will be cut from public spending in his budget this week, he added that some "horrible decicins" will be made, what do you think he means by that and how do you think the budget will look like?
Liz truss has not cost the economy 30bn. This is quite frankly economically illiterate tripe.
Would you like to post how you think she has?
It is universally agreed that the unfunded tax cuts that Truss and Kwartang announced spooked the bonds market and crashed the £. Even though this was short term it dramatically increased the cost of borrowing for the UK Govt and also saw the rating agencies like Moodys downgrade the UK.
Those markets have unwound. Have a look a tthe data for yourself.
They're nowhere near where they went. And the bofe has made a profit on them.
So sorry. But this is not that. If you've read the article people are using the 30bn from you'd see the article itself doesn't use that as a reason.
So surely that means the “black hole” Hunt is using to justify austerity 2.0 is either false or not as bad as they are making out no?"
Well we need to deal with the almost 3trn debt. So there is a black hole.
But it's not because of the mini budget |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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The mess we are in was not caused by Truss, regardless of what Tabloids and news say. We got here through the direction of those in the government over many decades. Try not to overlook that. |
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By *hagTonight OP Man
over a year ago
From the land of haribos. |
"The mess we are in was not caused by Truss, regardless of what Tabloids and news say. We got here through the direction of those in the government over many decades. Try not to overlook that."
This and you are right there too  |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
"Expecting middle income and poorer people to suffer whilst the richest are just fine.
This is what people keep voting for. What can you do.
I may consider turning to drink.
But... drink is too expensive now. Curses!"
I'll buy you a pint |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
"Expecting middle income and poorer people to suffer whilst the richest are just fine.
This is what people keep voting for. What can you do.
I may consider turning to drink.
But... drink is too expensive now. Curses! I'll buy you a pint "
Cheers! |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
"The mess we are in was not caused by Truss, regardless of what Tabloids and news say. We got here through the direction of those in the government over many decades. Try not to overlook that."
Truss made it worse, |
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By *hagTonight OP Man
over a year ago
From the land of haribos. |
"The mess we are in was not caused by Truss, regardless of what Tabloids and news say. We got here through the direction of those in the government over many decades. Try not to overlook that.
Truss made it worse, "
Yes. I would say almost all of it is her fault too. |
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By *irldnCouple
over a year ago
Brighton |
"It comes after liz truss cost the uk £30,000,000,000.
Jeremy hunt has warned everyone will pay more tax and billions will be cut from public spending in his budget this week, he added that some "horrible decicins" will be made, what do you think he means by that and how do you think the budget will look like?
Liz truss has not cost the economy 30bn. This is quite frankly economically illiterate tripe.
Would you like to post how you think she has?
It is universally agreed that the unfunded tax cuts that Truss and Kwartang announced spooked the bonds market and crashed the £. Even though this was short term it dramatically increased the cost of borrowing for the UK Govt and also saw the rating agencies like Moodys downgrade the UK.
Those markets have unwound. Have a look a tthe data for yourself.
They're nowhere near where they went. And the bofe has made a profit on them.
So sorry. But this is not that. If you've read the article people are using the 30bn from you'd see the article itself doesn't use that as a reason.
So surely that means the “black hole” Hunt is using to justify austerity 2.0 is either false or not as bad as they are making out no?
Well we need to deal with the almost 3trn debt. So there is a black hole.
But it's not because of the mini budget "
But you’ve been talking about deficits rather than debt (when it suits you). Are you saying the cost of gilts was unaffected by Truss/Kwartang? |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
I'm not sure as it's looking like hes going to protect the triple lock, Benefits and put up the National minimum wage.
It does also look like he is going to bring down the threshold for the 40% tax. Everyone is going to feel a hit but I genuinely believe hes not stupid enough to do what is trusted and basically tax cuts for the rich and rises for everyone else. There were rumours that he was going to announce that PIP payments Would be means tested but the amount of money they would get back from that would be a pittance and probably cost more to reasses everybody. I guess we will have to wait to see tomorrow. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
"The reality is that people don't want to pay more tax but they do want us to keep pouring money down the drain on rubbish public services.
The NHS, which is a mediocre health service, now accounts for 45% of every £ that the government spends.
Lockdown, paying people to sit around doing nothing, foreign aid, spending billions to support foreign wars, free hotels for illegal immigrants, failing to deal with ineffectual public services.
If people are happy to go on supporting all this stuff, then they can expect their taxes to continue rising."
where did you get that 45pc from ?
Eye balling OBR numbers gets me maybe 15pc? |
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By *eroy1000Man
over a year ago
milton keynes |
A few reports lately quoting some Tories will not vote in favour of the budget if it has tax rises without scrapping schemes like HS2 ect. Wonder if they can get the numbers to defeat Rishi and Hunt at their first outing. Probably wishful thinking |
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By *irldnCouple
over a year ago
Brighton |
Remember today when Sunak and Hunt raise your tax and bring in sweeping cuts, that the UK is the 5th (or 6th as India has recently overtaken) richest country in the world!
If the economy had been managed correctly over the last 12 years of Tory rule there would have been no need to bring in Austerity 2.0 |
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By *irldnCouple
over a year ago
Brighton |
"Amazing that we've got a huge bill for closing the economy and paying people to stay home for 18 months.  "
What’s even more galling is that over 4m self employed and small Ltd company directors got no support whatsoever. Nothing!
Add to that the huge number of people who continued to work the whole way through the pandemic, especially our NHS and emergency services folks, and they then get hit with this.
There is ideology at work here (wrapped up in a thin veneer of supposed sensible fiscal policy) to undermine public services and see them fail yet further to soften up public opinion for yet more privatisation (bye bye NHS). |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
"Amazing that we've got a huge bill for closing the economy and paying people to stay home for 18 months.
What’s even more galling is that over 4m self employed and small Ltd company directors got no support whatsoever. Nothing!
Add to that the huge number of people who continued to work the whole way through the pandemic, especially our NHS and emergency services folks, and they then get hit with this.
There is ideology at work here (wrapped up in a thin veneer of supposed sensible fiscal policy) to undermine public services and see them fail yet further to soften up public opinion for yet more privatisation (bye bye NHS)."
Does it involve lizard people? |
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By *irldnCouple
over a year ago
Brighton |
"Amazing that we've got a huge bill for closing the economy and paying people to stay home for 18 months.
What’s even more galling is that over 4m self employed and small Ltd company directors got no support whatsoever. Nothing!
Add to that the huge number of people who continued to work the whole way through the pandemic, especially our NHS and emergency services folks, and they then get hit with this.
There is ideology at work here (wrapped up in a thin veneer of supposed sensible fiscal policy) to undermine public services and see them fail yet further to soften up public opinion for yet more privatisation (bye bye NHS).
Does it involve lizard people?"
That’s not a very nice way to describe our PM and Chancellor! |
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By *irldnCouple
over a year ago
Brighton |
"Amazing that we've got a huge bill for closing the economy and paying people to stay home for 18 months.
Yeah it's fucking huge nearly half a brexit."
Over how many years? Cos Brexit is a forever 4% hit to GDP. So not even half a Brexit over a longer period |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
"Amazing that we've got a huge bill for closing the economy and paying people to stay home for 18 months.
Yeah it's fucking huge nearly half a brexit."
You must use the same calculator as Shag.  Minimum 400 billion for Lockdown with huge legacy costs for years to come. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
"I'm not sure as it's looking like hes going to protect the triple lock, Benefits and put up the National minimum wage.
It does also look like he is going to bring down the threshold for the 40% tax. Everyone is going to feel a hit but I genuinely believe hes not stupid enough to do what is trusted and basically tax cuts for the rich and rises for everyone else. There were rumours that he was going to announce that PIP payments Would be means tested but the amount of money they would get back from that would be a pittance and probably cost more to reasses everybody. I guess we will have to wait to see tomorrow. "
No, he's brought down the threshold for the 45% tax rate.
The 40% threshold remains unchanged |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"Amazing that we've got a huge bill for closing the economy and paying people to stay home for 18 months. "
I wasn’t paid a penny to stay at home for 18 months, were you? |
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By *irldnCouple
over a year ago
Brighton |
"I'm not sure as it's looking like hes going to protect the triple lock, Benefits and put up the National minimum wage.
It does also look like he is going to bring down the threshold for the 40% tax. Everyone is going to feel a hit but I genuinely believe hes not stupid enough to do what is trusted and basically tax cuts for the rich and rises for everyone else. There were rumours that he was going to announce that PIP payments Would be means tested but the amount of money they would get back from that would be a pittance and probably cost more to reasses everybody. I guess we will have to wait to see tomorrow.
No, he's brought down the threshold for the 45% tax rate.
The 40% threshold remains unchanged"
An extra £1250 a year in tax sigh! |
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By *irldnCouple
over a year ago
Brighton |
The OBR:
By the mid-2020s, the tax burden is 4% of GDP higher than pre-pandemic and 1% of GDP higher than forecast in March. It peaks above 37% in 2023-24 and remains near that peak – its highest sustained level for seven decades. |
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"Amazing that we've got a huge bill for closing the economy and paying people to stay home for 18 months.
Yeah it's fucking huge nearly half a brexit.
Over how many years? Cos Brexit is a forever 4% hit to GDP. So not even half a Brexit over a longer period "
We have been over how this was a lie.
Please stop posting it. |
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By *irldnCouple
over a year ago
Brighton |
"Amazing that we've got a huge bill for closing the economy and paying people to stay home for 18 months.
Yeah it's fucking huge nearly half a brexit.
Over how many years? Cos Brexit is a forever 4% hit to GDP. So not even half a Brexit over a longer period
We have been over how this was a lie.
Please stop posting it."
The OBR last updated on 26 May 2022...
“This page sets out our assumptions related to EU exit that underpin our latest March 2022 forecast. Specifically, our latest economy forecast assumes that:
The new trading relationship between the UK and EU, as set out in the ‘Trade and Cooperation Agreement’ (TCA) that came into effect on 1 January 2021, will reduce long-run productivity by 4 per cent relative to remaining in the EU. This largely reflects our view that the increase in non-tariff barriers on UK-EU trade acts as an additional impediment to the exploitation of comparative advantage. In order to generate this figure, we looked at a range of external estimates of the effect of leaving the EU under the terms of a ‘typical’ free trade agreement (FTA) (see Box 2.1 of our March 2020 EFO for more information). Our assessment is that the TCA is broadly similar to the ‘typical’ FTAs assumed in those studies and reflected in our forecasts since March 2020. We estimate that around two-fifths of the 4 per cent impact had already occurred by the time the TCA came into force, as a result of uncertainty weighing on investment and capital deepening (see Box 2.2 of our March 2021 EFO for more information).
Both exports and imports will be around 15 per cent lower in the long run than if the UK had remained in the EU. The size of this adjustment is calibrated to match the average estimate of a number of external studies that considered the impact of leaving the EU on the volume of UK-EU trade (see our November 2016 EFO for more information). Impacts on export and import growth are similar, therefore downward revisions to gross trade flows are broadly neutral in their effect on the current account over the medium term. Box 2.5 of our October 2021 EFO and Box 2.6 of our March 2022 EFO provide initial assessments of this assumption.
New trade deals with non-EU countries will not have a material impact, and any effect will be gradual (see our 2018 Discussion paper for more detail). This is because the deals concluded to date either replicate (or ‘roll over’) deals that the UK already benefited from as an EU member state, or do not have a material impact on our forecast. An example of the former is the UK-Japan ‘Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement’ – which largely mirrors the agreement Japan signed with the EU in 2019 – where the Government’s economic impact assessment suggests that it will increase the UK’s GDP by 0.1 per cent over the next 15 years (see the Government’s October 2020 UK-Japan CEPA: final impact assessment). This estimate is relative to not having a trade deal with Japan, whereas the UK would have been part of the EU-Japan agreement had it not left the EU. An example of the latter is the free-trade agreement with Australia, the first to be concluded with a country that does not have a similar arrangement with the EU. The Government’s estimate of the economic impact is that it will raise the UK’s GDP by 0.1 per cent over 15 years (see the Government’s December 2021 UK-Australia FTA: impact assessment).” |
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"Amazing that we've got a huge bill for closing the economy and paying people to stay home for 18 months.
Yeah it's fucking huge nearly half a brexit.
Over how many years? Cos Brexit is a forever 4% hit to GDP. So not even half a Brexit over a longer period
We have been over how this was a lie.
Please stop posting it.
The OBR last updated on 26 May 2022...
“This page sets out our assumptions related to EU exit that underpin our latest March 2022 forecast. Specifically, our latest economy forecast assumes that:
The new trading relationship between the UK and EU, as set out in the ‘Trade and Cooperation Agreement’ (TCA) that came into effect on 1 January 2021, will reduce long-run productivity by 4 per cent relative to remaining in the EU. This largely reflects our view that the increase in non-tariff barriers on UK-EU trade acts as an additional impediment to the exploitation of comparative advantage. In order to generate this figure, we looked at a range of external estimates of the effect of leaving the EU under the terms of a ‘typical’ free trade agreement (FTA) (see Box 2.1 of our March 2020 EFO for more information). Our assessment is that the TCA is broadly similar to the ‘typical’ FTAs assumed in those studies and reflected in our forecasts since March 2020. We estimate that around two-fifths of the 4 per cent impact had already occurred by the time the TCA came into force, as a result of uncertainty weighing on investment and capital deepening (see Box 2.2 of our March 2021 EFO for more information).
Both exports and imports will be around 15 per cent lower in the long run than if the UK had remained in the EU. The size of this adjustment is calibrated to match the average estimate of a number of external studies that considered the impact of leaving the EU on the volume of UK-EU trade (see our November 2016 EFO for more information). Impacts on export and import growth are similar, therefore downward revisions to gross trade flows are broadly neutral in their effect on the current account over the medium term. Box 2.5 of our October 2021 EFO and Box 2.6 of our March 2022 EFO provide initial assessments of this assumption.
New trade deals with non-EU countries will not have a material impact, and any effect will be gradual (see our 2018 Discussion paper for more detail). This is because the deals concluded to date either replicate (or ‘roll over’) deals that the UK already benefited from as an EU member state, or do not have a material impact on our forecast. An example of the former is the UK-Japan ‘Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement’ – which largely mirrors the agreement Japan signed with the EU in 2019 – where the Government’s economic impact assessment suggests that it will increase the UK’s GDP by 0.1 per cent over the next 15 years (see the Government’s October 2020 UK-Japan CEPA: final impact assessment). This estimate is relative to not having a trade deal with Japan, whereas the UK would have been part of the EU-Japan agreement had it not left the EU. An example of the latter is the free-trade agreement with Australia, the first to be concluded with a country that does not have a similar arrangement with the EU. The Government’s estimate of the economic impact is that it will raise the UK’s GDP by 0.1 per cent over 15 years (see the Government’s December 2021 UK-Australia FTA: impact assessment).”"
I have explained how the obr report was made on multiple occasions and how posted the same growth rate expectations fkr Germany and France et al and how they failed to meet their expectations too.
Quoting the same thing you know to be a lie as its a sliding doors moment that can't be compared and every other comparator nation suffering the same fate.
You aren't just being disingenuous.
You are lying.
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"Amazing that we've got a huge bill for closing the economy and paying people to stay home for 18 months.
I wasn’t paid a penny to stay at home for 18 months, were you? "
No I work mate. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
"Amazing that we've got a huge bill for closing the economy and paying people to stay home for 18 months.
I wasn’t paid a penny to stay at home for 18 months, were you?
No I work mate. "
So do I |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
"Amazing that we've got a huge bill for closing the economy and paying people to stay home for 18 months.
I wasn’t paid a penny to stay at home for 18 months, were you?
No I work mate. "
Lots of people were supposed to be working but told to stay-at-home and weren't able to work from home. |
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"Also the report you are quoting is 4% productivity not gross domestic product
Brexit has damaged the economy, fact "
It may have done short term.
I have never denied this infact I have said as much have that that I believe it impacted the economy because we have seena dip in out gdp growth vs other g7 nations in the main( except Germany who are still below us since 2016 in growth) even with inflated figures.
But certainly not 4%.
And it doesn't help well people quote articles on productivity about people being poorer when they mean gdp.
It is honestly worry that some people clearly don't read what they copy paste.
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
"Also the report you are quoting is 4% productivity not gross domestic product
Brexit has damaged the economy, fact
It may have done short term.
I have never denied this infact I have said as much have that that I believe it impacted the economy because we have seena dip in out gdp growth vs other g7 nations in the main( except Germany who are still below us since 2016 in growth) even with inflated figures.
But certainly not 4%.
And it doesn't help well people quote articles on productivity about people being poorer when they mean gdp.
It is honestly worry that some people clearly don't read what they copy paste.
"
We will have the lowest disposable income in 50 years |
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By *irldnCouple
over a year ago
Brighton |
"Also the report you are quoting is 4% productivity not gross domestic product
Brexit has damaged the economy, fact
It may have done short term.
I have never denied this infact I have said as much have that that I believe it impacted the economy because we have seena dip in out gdp growth vs other g7 nations in the main( except Germany who are still below us since 2016 in growth) even with inflated figures.
But certainly not 4%.
And it doesn't help well people quote articles on productivity about people being poorer when they mean gdp.
It is honestly worry that some people clearly don't read what they copy paste.
"
Not according to the Financial Times...
https://www.ft.com/content/7a209a34-7d95-47aa-91b0-bf02d4214764 |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
"Amazing that we've got a huge bill for closing the economy and paying people to stay home for 18 months.
I wasn’t paid a penny to stay at home for 18 months, were you?
No I work mate.
Lots of people were supposed to be working but told to stay-at-home and weren't able to work from home. "
Lots fiddling furlough too. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
"Amazing that we've got a huge bill for closing the economy and paying people to stay home for 18 months.
I wasn’t paid a penny to stay at home for 18 months, were you?
No I work mate.
Lots of people were supposed to be working but told to stay-at-home and weren't able to work from home.
Lots fiddling furlough too."
What is the government going to do about that? |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
"Amazing that we've got a huge bill for closing the economy and paying people to stay home for 18 months.
I wasn’t paid a penny to stay at home for 18 months, were you?
No I work mate.
Lots of people were supposed to be working but told to stay-at-home and weren't able to work from home.
Lots fiddling furlough too.
What is the government going to do about that? "
Given that working people on low or average incomes are the most despised class, absolutely nothing. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
"Amazing that we've got a huge bill for closing the economy and paying people to stay home for 18 months.
I wasn’t paid a penny to stay at home for 18 months, were you?
No I work mate.
Lots of people were supposed to be working but told to stay-at-home and weren't able to work from home.
Lots fiddling furlough too.
What is the government going to do about that?
Given that working people on low or average incomes are the most despised class, absolutely nothing."
Despised by whom? |
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|
By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
"Amazing that we've got a huge bill for closing the economy and paying people to stay home for 18 months.
I wasn’t paid a penny to stay at home for 18 months, were you?
No I work mate.
Lots of people were supposed to be working but told to stay-at-home and weren't able to work from home.
Lots fiddling furlough too.
What is the government going to do about that?
Given that working people on low or average incomes are the most despised class, absolutely nothing.
Despised by whom? "
The political class of all parties. |
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|
By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
"Amazing that we've got a huge bill for closing the economy and paying people to stay home for 18 months.
I wasn’t paid a penny to stay at home for 18 months, were you?
No I work mate.
Lots of people were supposed to be working but told to stay-at-home and weren't able to work from home.
Lots fiddling furlough too.
What is the government going to do about that?
Given that working people on low or average incomes are the most despised class, absolutely nothing.
Despised by whom?
The political class of all parties. "
Ah well, no wonder they ‘fiddled the furlough’  |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
"Amazing that we've got a huge bill for closing the economy and paying people to stay home for 18 months.
I wasn’t paid a penny to stay at home for 18 months, were you?
No I work mate.
Lots of people were supposed to be working but told to stay-at-home and weren't able to work from home.
Lots fiddling furlough too."
That was mainly businesses not individuals. You seem to just want to claim that people are always on the fiddle or just lazy. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
"Amazing that we've got a huge bill for closing the economy and paying people to stay home for 18 months.
I wasn’t paid a penny to stay at home for 18 months, were you?
No I work mate.
Lots of people were supposed to be working but told to stay-at-home and weren't able to work from home.
Lots fiddling furlough too.
What is the government going to do about that?
Given that working people on low or average incomes are the most despised class, absolutely nothing."
Dispised by who? |
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"Also the report you are quoting is 4% productivity not gross domestic product
Brexit has damaged the economy, fact
It may have done short term.
I have never denied this infact I have said as much have that that I believe it impacted the economy because we have seena dip in out gdp growth vs other g7 nations in the main( except Germany who are still below us since 2016 in growth) even with inflated figures.
But certainly not 4%.
And it doesn't help well people quote articles on productivity about people being poorer when they mean gdp.
It is honestly worry that some people clearly don't read what they copy paste.
Not according to the Financial Times...
https://www.ft.com/content/7a209a34-7d95-47aa-91b0-bf02d4214764"
You have literally quoted them. It'd there to see. |
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|
By *irldnCouple
over a year ago
Brighton |
"Amazing that we've got a huge bill for closing the economy and paying people to stay home for 18 months.
I wasn’t paid a penny to stay at home for 18 months, were you?
No I work mate.
Lots of people were supposed to be working but told to stay-at-home and weren't able to work from home.
Lots fiddling furlough too.
That was mainly businesses not individuals. You seem to just want to claim that people are always on the fiddle or just lazy. "
There were a few high profile cases where companies took furlough money but insisted their staff still worked throughout thus reducing the company’s salary bill by 80%. This all helped increase profits enabling tasty dividend payments for owner/directors. |
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Btw. Chris Giles is a strong remainer.
He also quoted Mark carney recently( our ex bofe governor.) As saying the uk was only 70% of germanys growth.
Mark carney was derided by both remain and leave economists for getting his numbers spectacularly wrong. And Chris Giles didn't spot it. ( he forgot about our chasing power in his calculations) which was laughable.
Hes regularly embarrassed by Andre Neil and alike for how badly he understands economics.
|
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By *irldnCouple
over a year ago
Brighton |
"Also the report you are quoting is 4% productivity not gross domestic product
Brexit has damaged the economy, fact
It may have done short term.
I have never denied this infact I have said as much have that that I believe it impacted the economy because we have seena dip in out gdp growth vs other g7 nations in the main( except Germany who are still below us since 2016 in growth) even with inflated figures.
But certainly not 4%.
And it doesn't help well people quote articles on productivity about people being poorer when they mean gdp.
It is honestly worry that some people clearly don't read what they copy paste.
Not according to the Financial Times...
https://www.ft.com/content/7a209a34-7d95-47aa-91b0-bf02d4214764
You have literally quoted them. It'd there to see."
“The Office for Budget Responsibility, the official British forecaster, has seen no reason to change its prediction, first made in March 2020, that Brexit would ultimately reduce productivity and UK gross domestic product by 4 per cent compared with a world where the country remained inside the EU. It says that a little over half of that damage has yet to occur.
That level of decline, worth about £100bn a year in lost output, would result in lost revenues for the Treasury of roughly £40bn a year.”
So what is your point? |
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"Amazing that we've got a huge bill for closing the economy and paying people to stay home for 18 months.
Yeah it's fucking huge nearly half a brexit.
You must use the same calculator as Shag. Minimum 400 billion for Lockdown with huge legacy costs for years to come. "
If you think 400 billion isn't too bad, the OBR published the damage done by both over 10-15 years. The pandemic cost really is catastrophic, at about half the cost of brexit to the economy.
|
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"Also the report you are quoting is 4% productivity not gross domestic product
Brexit has damaged the economy, fact
It may have done short term.
I have never denied this infact I have said as much have that that I believe it impacted the economy because we have seena dip in out gdp growth vs other g7 nations in the main( except Germany who are still below us since 2016 in growth) even with inflated figures.
But certainly not 4%.
And it doesn't help well people quote articles on productivity about people being poorer when they mean gdp.
It is honestly worry that some people clearly don't read what they copy paste.
Not according to the Financial Times...
https://www.ft.com/content/7a209a34-7d95-47aa-91b0-bf02d4214764
You have literally quoted them. It'd there to see.
“The Office for Budget Responsibility, the official British forecaster, has seen no reason to change its prediction, first made in March 2020, that Brexit would ultimately reduce productivity and UK gross domestic product by 4 per cent compared with a world where the country remained inside the EU. It says that a little over half of that damage has yet to occur.
That level of decline, worth about £100bn a year in lost output, would result in lost revenues for the Treasury of roughly £40bn a year.”
So what is your point?"
Seriously read the report. You've quoted it.
Understand the differenc of what the FT is saying and what the OBR said.
I mean. They didn't even k ow what the deal would look like ?? |
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Btw just for fun
Here the OBR historic prediction on productivity up to 2017...Ed Conway is a huge remainer.
Even he mocks these expectations.
https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/933339551711612934?t=xsQPnyapp6JeVV81QHFSfQ&s=19 |
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By *irldnCouple
over a year ago
Brighton |
"Also the report you are quoting is 4% productivity not gross domestic product
Brexit has damaged the economy, fact
It may have done short term.
I have never denied this infact I have said as much have that that I believe it impacted the economy because we have seena dip in out gdp growth vs other g7 nations in the main( except Germany who are still below us since 2016 in growth) even with inflated figures.
But certainly not 4%.
And it doesn't help well people quote articles on productivity about people being poorer when they mean gdp.
It is honestly worry that some people clearly don't read what they copy paste.
Not according to the Financial Times...
https://www.ft.com/content/7a209a34-7d95-47aa-91b0-bf02d4214764
You have literally quoted them. It'd there to see.
“The Office for Budget Responsibility, the official British forecaster, has seen no reason to change its prediction, first made in March 2020, that Brexit would ultimately reduce productivity and UK gross domestic product by 4 per cent compared with a world where the country remained inside the EU. It says that a little over half of that damage has yet to occur.
That level of decline, worth about £100bn a year in lost output, would result in lost revenues for the Treasury of roughly £40bn a year.”
So what is your point?
Seriously read the report. You've quoted it.
Understand the differenc of what the FT is saying and what the OBR said.
I mean. They didn't even k ow what the deal would look like ??"
*sigh*
““The Office for Budget Responsibility, the official British forecaster, has seen no reason to change its prediction, first made in March 2020”
ie after the deal. It really shouldn’t be this hard! |
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|
By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
"Amazing that we've got a huge bill for closing the economy and paying people to stay home for 18 months.
I wasn’t paid a penny to stay at home for 18 months, were you?
No I work mate.
Lots of people were supposed to be working but told to stay-at-home and weren't able to work from home.
Lots fiddling furlough too.
That was mainly businesses not individuals. You seem to just want to claim that people are always on the fiddle or just lazy.
There were a few high profile cases where companies took furlough money but insisted their staff still worked throughout thus reducing the company’s salary bill by 80%. This all helped increase profits enabling tasty dividend payments for owner/directors."
Companies not individuals which was exactly my point. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
"No wonder so many people are skint when they can't understand basic figures and percentages.  "
You seem to be here just to mock others rather than make any actual contributions. |
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"Also the report you are quoting is 4% productivity not gross domestic product
Brexit has damaged the economy, fact
It may have done short term.
I have never denied this infact I have said as much have that that I believe it impacted the economy because we have seena dip in out gdp growth vs other g7 nations in the main( except Germany who are still below us since 2016 in growth) even with inflated figures.
But certainly not 4%.
And it doesn't help well people quote articles on productivity about people being poorer when they mean gdp.
It is honestly worry that some people clearly don't read what they copy paste.
Not according to the Financial Times...
https://www.ft.com/content/7a209a34-7d95-47aa-91b0-bf02d4214764
You have literally quoted them. It'd there to see.
“The Office for Budget Responsibility, the official British forecaster, has seen no reason to change its prediction, first made in March 2020, that Brexit would ultimately reduce productivity and UK gross domestic product by 4 per cent compared with a world where the country remained inside the EU. It says that a little over half of that damage has yet to occur.
That level of decline, worth about £100bn a year in lost output, would result in lost revenues for the Treasury of roughly £40bn a year.”
So what is your point?
Seriously read the report. You've quoted it.
Understand the differenc of what the FT is saying and what the OBR said.
I mean. They didn't even k ow what the deal would look like ??
*sigh*
““The Office for Budget Responsibility, the official British forecaster, has seen no reason to change its prediction, first made in March 2020”
ie after the deal. It really shouldn’t be this hard!"
Exactly the point.
They made a forecast without knowing the deal..and still haven't updated it.
Which is why they are so laughably wrong every time they do a forecast
It's why there's a saying among economists and traders " the first rule of OBR club, its always wrong" |
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|
By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
"Amazing that we've got a huge bill for closing the economy and paying people to stay home for 18 months.
Yeah it's fucking huge nearly half a brexit.
You must use the same calculator as Shag. Minimum 400 billion for Lockdown with huge legacy costs for years to come.
If you think 400 billion isn't too bad, the OBR published the damage done by both over 10-15 years. The pandemic cost really is catastrophic, at about half the cost of brexit to the economy.
"
You'll find 'done' is the past tense so probably not best used for 15 year forecasts in the future. If you trust any 15 year economic forecast to be even vaguely accurate then I've got a bridge you might like.
£400 billion is the real figure for extra public spending which has happened during Covid, a huge hole which has to be filled. It has nothing to do with fantasy economics two decades away. |
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"Amazing that we've got a huge bill for closing the economy and paying people to stay home for 18 months.
Yeah it's fucking huge nearly half a brexit.
You must use the same calculator as Shag. Minimum 400 billion for Lockdown with huge legacy costs for years to come.
If you think 400 billion isn't too bad, the OBR published the damage done by both over 10-15 years. The pandemic cost really is catastrophic, at about half the cost of brexit to the economy.
You'll find 'done' is the past tense so probably not best used for 15 year forecasts in the future. If you trust any 15 year economic forecast to be even vaguely accurate then I've got a bridge you might like.
£400 billion is the real figure for extra public spending which has happened during Covid, a huge hole which has to be filled. It has nothing to do with fantasy economics two decades away."
Sorry, I thought you were saying 400 billion was minor damage to the economy.
I'm with you, it's huge damage. About half of brexit. |
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|
By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
"Amazing that we've got a huge bill for closing the economy and paying people to stay home for 18 months.
Yeah it's fucking huge nearly half a brexit.
You must use the same calculator as Shag. Minimum 400 billion for Lockdown with huge legacy costs for years to come.
If you think 400 billion isn't too bad, the OBR published the damage done by both over 10-15 years. The pandemic cost really is catastrophic, at about half the cost of brexit to the economy.
You'll find 'done' is the past tense so probably not best used for 15 year forecasts in the future. If you trust any 15 year economic forecast to be even vaguely accurate then I've got a bridge you might like.
£400 billion is the real figure for extra public spending which has happened during Covid, a huge hole which has to be filled. It has nothing to do with fantasy economics two decades away.
Sorry, I thought you were saying 400 billion was minor damage to the economy.
I'm with you, it's huge damage. About half of brexit. "
So you believe Brexit has resulted in extra public spending of £800 billion plus to date. Do you have a source for that ? |
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|
By *irldnCouple
over a year ago
Brighton |
"Also the report you are quoting is 4% productivity not gross domestic product
Brexit has damaged the economy, fact
It may have done short term.
I have never denied this infact I have said as much have that that I believe it impacted the economy because we have seena dip in out gdp growth vs other g7 nations in the main( except Germany who are still below us since 2016 in growth) even with inflated figures.
But certainly not 4%.
And it doesn't help well people quote articles on productivity about people being poorer when they mean gdp.
It is honestly worry that some people clearly don't read what they copy paste.
Not according to the Financial Times...
https://www.ft.com/content/7a209a34-7d95-47aa-91b0-bf02d4214764
You have literally quoted them. It'd there to see.
“The Office for Budget Responsibility, the official British forecaster, has seen no reason to change its prediction, first made in March 2020, that Brexit would ultimately reduce productivity and UK gross domestic product by 4 per cent compared with a world where the country remained inside the EU. It says that a little over half of that damage has yet to occur.
That level of decline, worth about £100bn a year in lost output, would result in lost revenues for the Treasury of roughly £40bn a year.”
So what is your point?
Seriously read the report. You've quoted it.
Understand the differenc of what the FT is saying and what the OBR said.
I mean. They didn't even k ow what the deal would look like ??
*sigh*
““The Office for Budget Responsibility, the official British forecaster, has seen no reason to change its prediction, first made in March 2020”
ie after the deal. It really shouldn’t be this hard!
Exactly the point.
They made a forecast without knowing the deal..and still haven't updated it.
Which is why they are so laughably wrong every time they do a forecast
It's why there's a saying among economists and traders " the first rule of OBR club, its always wrong""
 NO
The OBR updated in March 2022 and published May 2022 and saw no reason to revise as quoted by FT!
What I find amazing is that we seem to have a world-class economist posting in the Fab forums! You clearly (think you) know better than the economists working in the OBR and journalists working at the FT as you must be right and they are wrong!
Have to ask, what do you do for a living? If you are a published economist then you are wasted! |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
"No wonder so many people are skint when they can't understand basic figures and percentages.
You seem to be here just to mock others rather than make any actual contributions. "
I think pointing out the very poor levels of numeracy in public debate is both an accurate and important observation. It is also very damaging to the personal finances of many. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
"No wonder so many people are skint when they can't understand basic figures and percentages.
You seem to be here just to mock others rather than make any actual contributions.
I think pointing out the very poor levels of numeracy in public debate is both an accurate and important observation. It is also very damaging to the personal finances of many."
You don't have to do it in such a belittling way though. No not everybody is a maths genius and you could explain it rather than mocking. Just because people disagree with you doesn't mean they can't manage their personal finances! |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
"No wonder so many people are skint when they can't understand basic figures and percentages.
You seem to be here just to mock others rather than make any actual contributions.
I think pointing out the very poor levels of numeracy in public debate is both an accurate and important observation. It is also very damaging to the personal finances of many.
You don't have to do it in such a belittling way though. No not everybody is a maths genius and you could explain it rather than mocking. Just because people disagree with you doesn't mean they can't manage their personal finances! "
|
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"Amazing that we've got a huge bill for closing the economy and paying people to stay home for 18 months.
Yeah it's fucking huge nearly half a brexit.
You must use the same calculator as Shag. Minimum 400 billion for Lockdown with huge legacy costs for years to come.
If you think 400 billion isn't too bad, the OBR published the damage done by both over 10-15 years. The pandemic cost really is catastrophic, at about half the cost of brexit to the economy.
You'll find 'done' is the past tense so probably not best used for 15 year forecasts in the future. If you trust any 15 year economic forecast to be even vaguely accurate then I've got a bridge you might like.
£400 billion is the real figure for extra public spending which has happened during Covid, a huge hole which has to be filled. It has nothing to do with fantasy economics two decades away.
Sorry, I thought you were saying 400 billion was minor damage to the economy.
I'm with you, it's huge damage. About half of brexit.
So you believe Brexit has resulted in extra public spending of £800 billion plus to date. Do you have a source for that ?"
I don't have a source for something I didn't say happened no. |
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By *eroy1000Man
over a year ago
milton keynes |
"Also the report you're quoting. Is talking about future productivity not a realised 4%"
So I just read the post above about the OBR prediction and see they mention the 4% figure for productivity. I understand your quote that this is not GDP and two different things. My question is what does a 4% drop in productivity equal in terms of GDP. I assume it will mean a drop, but by how much. Is there some sort of ratio or is it an impossible question?. Also as these are predictions and not results, is there any actual results yet that we can measure any drop or is it to early at present? |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
"Amazing that we've got a huge bill for closing the economy and paying people to stay home for 18 months.
Yeah it's fucking huge nearly half a brexit.
You must use the same calculator as Shag. Minimum 400 billion for Lockdown with huge legacy costs for years to come.
If you think 400 billion isn't too bad, the OBR published the damage done by both over 10-15 years. The pandemic cost really is catastrophic, at about half the cost of brexit to the economy.
You'll find 'done' is the past tense so probably not best used for 15 year forecasts in the future. If you trust any 15 year economic forecast to be even vaguely accurate then I've got a bridge you might like.
£400 billion is the real figure for extra public spending which has happened during Covid, a huge hole which has to be filled. It has nothing to do with fantasy economics two decades away.
Sorry, I thought you were saying 400 billion was minor damage to the economy.
I'm with you, it's huge damage. About half of brexit.
So you believe Brexit has resulted in extra public spending of £800 billion plus to date. Do you have a source for that ?
I don't have a source for something I didn't say happened no. "
No, you definitely said the bill for Covid was less than half the bill for Brexit. A bill is what you pay after an expense, not what is speculation two decades ahead. So again please, what is your source that the UK Govt has a Brexit bill to pay which is more than double what it spent on Covid. |
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By *irldnCouple
over a year ago
Brighton |
"Also the report you're quoting. Is talking about future productivity not a realised 4%
So I just read the post above about the OBR prediction and see they mention the 4% figure for productivity. I understand your quote that this is not GDP and two different things. My question is what does a 4% drop in productivity equal in terms of GDP. I assume it will mean a drop, but by how much. Is there some sort of ratio or is it an impossible question?. Also as these are predictions and not results, is there any actual results yet that we can measure any drop or is it to early at present?"
“...Brexit would ultimately reduce productivity and [b]UK gross domestic product by 4 per cent[/b] compared with a world where the country remained inside the EU...” |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
"Amazing that we've got a huge bill for closing the economy and paying people to stay home for 18 months.
Yeah it's fucking huge nearly half a brexit."
For reference ^ |
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"Amazing that we've got a huge bill for closing the economy and paying people to stay home for 18 months.
Yeah it's fucking huge nearly half a brexit.
You must use the same calculator as Shag. Minimum 400 billion for Lockdown with huge legacy costs for years to come.
If you think 400 billion isn't too bad, the OBR published the damage done by both over 10-15 years. The pandemic cost really is catastrophic, at about half the cost of brexit to the economy.
You'll find 'done' is the past tense so probably not best used for 15 year forecasts in the future. If you trust any 15 year economic forecast to be even vaguely accurate then I've got a bridge you might like.
£400 billion is the real figure for extra public spending which has happened during Covid, a huge hole which has to be filled. It has nothing to do with fantasy economics two decades away.
Sorry, I thought you were saying 400 billion was minor damage to the economy.
I'm with you, it's huge damage. About half of brexit.
So you believe Brexit has resulted in extra public spending of £800 billion plus to date. Do you have a source for that ?
I don't have a source for something I didn't say happened no.
No, you definitely said the bill for Covid was less than half the bill for Brexit. A bill is what you pay after an expense, not what is speculation two decades ahead. So again please, what is your source that the UK Govt has a Brexit bill to pay which is more than double what it spent on Covid. "
You added "to date" not me. So I can't provide sources for something that you said that I said that I didn't say.
But the OBR has the information you want. It was widely reported on. I'm sure you can find it. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
Those quoting OBR reports on Brexit might note it forecast immigration to the UK to fall due to Brexit, and this was a factor in its forecasts of less productivity. In fact lower EU migration has been surpassed by more non EU migration already, and as this is skills based rather than free movement with no restrictions it is likely the new immigrants are more productive as a whole. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
"Amazing that we've got a huge bill for closing the economy and paying people to stay home for 18 months.
Yeah it's fucking huge nearly half a brexit.
You must use the same calculator as Shag. Minimum 400 billion for Lockdown with huge legacy costs for years to come.
If you think 400 billion isn't too bad, the OBR published the damage done by both over 10-15 years. The pandemic cost really is catastrophic, at about half the cost of brexit to the economy.
You'll find 'done' is the past tense so probably not best used for 15 year forecasts in the future. If you trust any 15 year economic forecast to be even vaguely accurate then I've got a bridge you might like.
£400 billion is the real figure for extra public spending which has happened during Covid, a huge hole which has to be filled. It has nothing to do with fantasy economics two decades away.
Sorry, I thought you were saying 400 billion was minor damage to the economy.
I'm with you, it's huge damage. About half of brexit.
So you believe Brexit has resulted in extra public spending of £800 billion plus to date. Do you have a source for that ?
I don't have a source for something I didn't say happened no.
No, you definitely said the bill for Covid was less than half the bill for Brexit. A bill is what you pay after an expense, not what is speculation two decades ahead. So again please, what is your source that the UK Govt has a Brexit bill to pay which is more than double what it spent on Covid.
You added "to date" not me. So I can't provide sources for something that you said that I said that I didn't say.
But the OBR has the information you want. It was widely reported on. I'm sure you can find it."
|
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By *irldnCouple
over a year ago
Brighton |
"Those quoting OBR reports on Brexit might note it forecast immigration to the UK to fall due to Brexit, and this was a factor in its forecasts of less productivity. In fact lower EU migration has been surpassed by more non EU migration already, and as this is skills based rather than free movement with no restrictions it is likely the new immigrants are more productive as a whole."
Oh! Well that undermines everything LOLZ
Looks like we have another expert in our midst  |
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By *irldnCouple
over a year ago
Brighton |
BTW we aren’t all in this together and nor are all those with the broadest shoulders bearing the brunt as there was also an £18 billion Tory 'giveaway' as taxes were slashed for big banks on day of misery for most people.
Jeremy Hunt buried in the small print of his Autumn Statement - a cut to the Bank Surcharge from 8% to 3%
Nice work lobbyists. What’s the betting that once his political career is over, Hunt will land a few lucrative consultancy or non exec roles with the banks? |
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"Also the report you are quoting is 4% productivity not gross domestic product
Brexit has damaged the economy, fact
It may have done short term.
I have never denied this infact I have said as much have that that I believe it impacted the economy because we have seena dip in out gdp growth vs other g7 nations in the main( except Germany who are still below us since 2016 in growth) even with inflated figures.
But certainly not 4%.
And it doesn't help well people quote articles on productivity about people being poorer when they mean gdp.
It is honestly worry that some people clearly don't read what they copy paste.
Not according to the Financial Times...
https://www.ft.com/content/7a209a34-7d95-47aa-91b0-bf02d4214764
You have literally quoted them. It'd there to see.
“The Office for Budget Responsibility, the official British forecaster, has seen no reason to change its prediction, first made in March 2020, that Brexit would ultimately reduce productivity and UK gross domestic product by 4 per cent compared with a world where the country remained inside the EU. It says that a little over half of that damage has yet to occur.
That level of decline, worth about £100bn a year in lost output, would result in lost revenues for the Treasury of roughly £40bn a year.”
So what is your point?
Seriously read the report. You've quoted it.
Understand the differenc of what the FT is saying and what the OBR said.
I mean. They didn't even k ow what the deal would look like ??
*sigh*
““The Office for Budget Responsibility, the official British forecaster, has seen no reason to change its prediction, first made in March 2020”
ie after the deal. It really shouldn’t be this hard!
Exactly the point.
They made a forecast without knowing the deal..and still haven't updated it.
Which is why they are so laughably wrong every time they do a forecast
It's why there's a saying among economists and traders " the first rule of OBR club, its always wrong"
NO
The OBR updated in March 2022 and published May 2022 and saw no reason to revise as quoted by FT!
What I find amazing is that we seem to have a world-class economist posting in the Fab forums! You clearly (think you) know better than the economists working in the OBR and journalists working at the FT as you must be right and they are wrong!
Have to ask, what do you do for a living? If you are a published economist then you are wasted!"
Exactly the point.
The obr are so bad at forecasting( as I have shown above) they don't see tbe need to adjust their forecasts which don't include the uk getting almost complete market access to the sm.
It's poor.
And it's why that forecast is laughable. |
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"Amazing that we've got a huge bill for closing the economy and paying people to stay home for 18 months.
I wasn’t paid a penny to stay at home for 18 months, were you?
No I work mate.
So do I "
But the other day, you were bragging on here about how you don't work for your money, your money works for you
Which is it?
Your position seems to flex contrarily, as long as the quick snipe is at anyone who isn't a full-throated supporter of Captain Hindsight or who doesn't immediately blame the Tories for exogenous events like covid and Ukraine.
|
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"Also the report you are quoting is 4% productivity not gross domestic product
Brexit has damaged the economy, fact "
Opinion
It's too soon to say. Medium to long term, I think we will flourish but short term difficulties as we and the EU learn to live apart.
Quite different to the instant economic armageddon that Project Fear said would happen just on a vote to leave! What was it again? 800,000 job losses and property values down 20%?
Turned out employment has never been higher and unemployment never been lower. A property boom ensued. Whatever happens to these two optics going forwards will be as a result of covid and Ukraine. But robot Reeves looks set to only ever blame the temporary Truss turbulence!
I have a motoring analogy for you Rachel : yes Truss crashed the car, but it was not a write-off, it's been property repaired, so stop blaming her for all the other incidents elsewhere in the world that are really pushing up the insurance cost! For an ex BofE employee, it's a ridiculous look. |
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"Also the report you are quoting is 4% productivity not gross domestic product
Brexit has damaged the economy, fact
It may have done short term.
I have never denied this infact I have said as much have that that I believe it impacted the economy because we have seena dip in out gdp growth vs other g7 nations in the main( except Germany who are still below us since 2016 in growth) even with inflated figures.
But certainly not 4%.
And it doesn't help well people quote articles on productivity about people being poorer when they mean gdp.
It is honestly worry that some people clearly don't read what they copy paste.
Not according to the Financial Times...
https://www.ft.com/content/7a209a34-7d95-47aa-91b0-bf02d4214764
You have literally quoted them. It'd there to see.
“The Office for Budget Responsibility, the official British forecaster, has seen no reason to change its prediction, first made in March 2020, that Brexit would ultimately reduce productivity and UK gross domestic product by 4 per cent compared with a world where the country remained inside the EU. It says that a little over half of that damage has yet to occur.
That level of decline, worth about £100bn a year in lost output, would result in lost revenues for the Treasury of roughly £40bn a year.”
So what is your point?
Seriously read the report. You've quoted it.
Understand the differenc of what the FT is saying and what the OBR said.
I mean. They didn't even k ow what the deal would look like ??
*sigh*
““The Office for Budget Responsibility, the official British forecaster, has seen no reason to change its prediction, first made in March 2020”
ie after the deal. It really shouldn’t be this hard!
Exactly the point.
They made a forecast without knowing the deal..and still haven't updated it.
Which is why they are so laughably wrong every time they do a forecast
It's why there's a saying among economists and traders " the first rule of OBR club, its always wrong"
NO
The OBR updated in March 2022 and published May 2022 and saw no reason to revise as quoted by FT!
What I find amazing is that we seem to have a world-class economist posting in the Fab forums! You clearly (think you) know better than the economists working in the OBR and journalists working at the FT as you must be right and they are wrong!
Have to ask, what do you do for a living? If you are a published economist then you are wasted!
Exactly the point.
The obr are so bad at forecasting( as I have shown above) they don't see tbe need to adjust their forecasts which don't include the uk getting almost complete market access to the sm.
It's poor.
And it's why that forecast is laughable. "
Hear hear! Put the OBR on performance-related pay. They’ll then cost nothing |
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"Those quoting OBR reports on Brexit might note it forecast immigration to the UK to fall due to Brexit, and this was a factor in its forecasts of less productivity. In fact lower EU migration has been surpassed by more non EU migration already, and as this is skills based rather than free movement with no restrictions it is likely the new immigrants are more productive as a whole.
Oh! Well that undermines everything LOLZ
Looks like we have another expert in our midst "
To rival you? You must be so put out
Actually, we really should perhaps listen to you. You appear to be able to spend all day patrolling the politics forum ready to pounce on anything pro-Tory, or anti-Left, whilst simultaneously multi-tasking to such great effect in your well paid work, that you're in the higher tax bracket!
How do you do it? And why the earlier *sigh* on paying more tax. You so denounced the temporary Truss turbulent tax cuts, Hunt's measures yesterday must be right up your socialist street |
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By *irldnCouple
over a year ago
Brighton |
"Those quoting OBR reports on Brexit might note it forecast immigration to the UK to fall due to Brexit, and this was a factor in its forecasts of less productivity. In fact lower EU migration has been surpassed by more non EU migration already, and as this is skills based rather than free movement with no restrictions it is likely the new immigrants are more productive as a whole.
Oh! Well that undermines everything LOLZ
Looks like we have another expert in our midst
To rival you? You must be so put out
Actually, we really should perhaps listen to you. You appear to be able to spend all day patrolling the politics forum ready to pounce on anything pro-Tory, or anti-Left, whilst simultaneously multi-tasking to such great effect in your well paid work, that you're in the higher tax bracket!
How do you do it? And why the earlier *sigh* on paying more tax. You so denounced the temporary Truss turbulent tax cuts, Hunt's measures yesterday must be right up your socialist street "
Hey Cheshire welcome back. The forums have been dull without you!
Pretty sure we have already discussed my political persuasion before? You already know I am neither a socialist or unquestioning Labour supporter. I am a staunch centrist who believes that we should have a blended approach that brings the best ideas together from across the political spectrum.
I didn’t denounce the Truss tax cuts, I was critical of there fantasy unfunded nature. Seems I was right (the markets agreed and look at the damage that caused). I would love tax cuts but not to the detriment of the country as a whole.
Also I am not actually “anti Tory” but I certainly cannot stand the current crop who, IMO, are not really Conservatives. I have also said that on many occasions.
As for policing the forums! Really! You mean providing counter points for discussion rather than accept tribalist echo chamber nonsense!
I don’t think a few posts now and then really counts as spending all day on the forums. However, I do have a lot of flexibility and can work when I want/need.
So instead of focusing on me, how about discussing the topics? They’re far more interesting! |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
The Right wing press are claiming this is a “Labour Budget” - why can’t the Tory supporters just own the fact that they caused this entire mess in the first place, and admit the government they support is useless? |
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By *irldnCouple
over a year ago
Brighton |
"The Right wing press are claiming this is a “Labour Budget” - why can’t the Tory supporters just own the fact that they caused this entire mess in the first place, and admit the government they support is useless?"
Tribalism and the footballisation of politics. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
"The Right wing press are claiming this is a “Labour Budget” - why can’t the Tory supporters just own the fact that they caused this entire mess in the first place, and admit the government they support is useless?"
Perhaps they are pointing out that a government spending way beyond its means and trashing the State finances is historically more of a Labour trait than a Conservative one.
I'm not sure that pointing out that Parliament is now stacked with various parties who are all big government tax and spend parties absolves the current Government for responsibility for the current condition of the State finances.
But anyone who thinks any of the other parties would have done anything different since 2019 is kidding themselves. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
"The Right wing press are claiming this is a “Labour Budget” - why can’t the Tory supporters just own the fact that they caused this entire mess in the first place, and admit the government they support is useless?
Perhaps they are pointing out that a government spending way beyond its means and trashing the State finances is historically more of a Labour trait than a Conservative one.
I'm not sure that pointing out that Parliament is now stacked with various parties who are all big government tax and spend parties absolves the current Government for responsibility for the current condition of the State finances.
But anyone who thinks any of the other parties would have done anything different since 2019 is kidding themselves."
|
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
"The Right wing press are claiming this is a “Labour Budget” - why can’t the Tory supporters just own the fact that they caused this entire mess in the first place, and admit the government they support is useless?
Perhaps they are pointing out that a government spending way beyond its means and trashing the State finances is historically more of a Labour trait than a Conservative one.
I'm not sure that pointing out that Parliament is now stacked with various parties who are all big government tax and spend parties absolves the current Government for responsibility for the current condition of the State finances.
But anyone who thinks any of the other parties would have done anything different since 2019 is kidding themselves.
"
Low grade infantile incoherence as usual. |
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"The Right wing press are claiming this is a “Labour Budget” - why can’t the Tory supporters just own the fact that they caused this entire mess in the first place, and admit the government they support is useless?
Perhaps they are pointing out that a government spending way beyond its means and trashing the State finances is historically more of a Labour trait than a Conservative one.
I'm not sure that pointing out that Parliament is now stacked with various parties who are all big government tax and spend parties absolves the current Government for responsibility for the current condition of the State finances.
But anyone who thinks any of the other parties would have done anything different since 2019 is kidding themselves."
This is exactly it. And why people will continue to vote to flush the country down the toilet.
Conservative voters have been conditioned to believe this shower of self serving narcissists is as good as it gets. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
"The Right wing press are claiming this is a “Labour Budget” - why can’t the Tory supporters just own the fact that they caused this entire mess in the first place, and admit the government they support is useless?
Perhaps they are pointing out that a government spending way beyond its means and trashing the State finances is historically more of a Labour trait than a Conservative one.
I'm not sure that pointing out that Parliament is now stacked with various parties who are all big government tax and spend parties absolves the current Government for responsibility for the current condition of the State finances.
But anyone who thinks any of the other parties would have done anything different since 2019 is kidding themselves.
This is exactly it. And why people will continue to vote to flush the country down the toilet.
Conservative voters have been conditioned to believe this shower of self serving narcissists is as good as it gets. "
Well firstly I am not a Conservative voter. The post to which you responded was actually critical of the government.
But I also can't quite see why you think a Labour government would have had a fundamentally different policy than this government on lockdowns, furlough, Net Zero, public sector reform (or lack thereof), Ukraine, support for energy bills, etc etc.
Because unless their policies would have been fundamentally different, we would basically be in the same place regardless of which of them were in power. |
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"The Right wing press are claiming this is a “Labour Budget” - why can’t the Tory supporters just own the fact that they caused this entire mess in the first place, and admit the government they support is useless?
Perhaps they are pointing out that a government spending way beyond its means and trashing the State finances is historically more of a Labour trait than a Conservative one.
I'm not sure that pointing out that Parliament is now stacked with various parties who are all big government tax and spend parties absolves the current Government for responsibility for the current condition of the State finances.
But anyone who thinks any of the other parties would have done anything different since 2019 is kidding themselves.
This is exactly it. And why people will continue to vote to flush the country down the toilet.
Conservative voters have been conditioned to believe this shower of self serving narcissists is as good as it gets.
Well firstly I am not a Conservative voter. The post to which you responded was actually critical of the government.
But I also can't quite see why you think a Labour government would have had a fundamentally different policy than this government on lockdowns, furlough, Net Zero, public sector reform (or lack thereof), Ukraine, support for energy bills, etc etc.
Because unless their policies would have been fundamentally different, we would basically be in the same place regardless of which of them were in power. "
I didn't mention Labour
But to answer. The response to covid was pathetic, the parties while members of the public died alone in hospital beds, the prioritisation of their pals start up PPE businesses for government contracts, their infighting and blaming everyone else over brexit instead of trying to mitigate against the damage it's doing etc etc.
Doesn't have to be Labour, any other government would have been less self serving, in my opinion, than this bunch of disaster capitalists.
The government is supposed to work for us, not for themselves, their millionaire pal and big corporations. |
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"Also the report you are quoting is 4% productivity not gross domestic product
Brexit has damaged the economy, fact
Opinion
It's too soon to say. Medium to long term, I think we will flourish but short term difficulties as we and the EU learn to live apart.
Quite different to the instant economic armageddon that Project Fear said would happen just on a vote to leave! What was it again? 800,000 job losses and property values down 20%?
Turned out employment has never been higher and unemployment never been lower. A property boom ensued. Whatever happens to these two optics going forwards will be as a result of covid and Ukraine. But robot Reeves looks set to only ever blame the temporary Truss turbulence!
I have a motoring analogy for you Rachel : yes Truss crashed the car, but it was not a write-off, it's been property repaired, so stop blaming her for all the other incidents elsewhere in the world that are really pushing up the insurance cost! For an ex BofE employee, it's a ridiculous look. "
Claiming that the Brexit damage is only "opinion" is quite possibly the most outlandish thing anyone has written on here. And this is the weirdest place on the internet.
You're right about Truss's term as PM being a car crash though. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
"The Right wing press are claiming this is a “Labour Budget” - why can’t the Tory supporters just own the fact that they caused this entire mess in the first place, and admit the government they support is useless?
Perhaps they are pointing out that a government spending way beyond its means and trashing the State finances is historically more of a Labour trait than a Conservative one.
I'm not sure that pointing out that Parliament is now stacked with various parties who are all big government tax and spend parties absolves the current Government for responsibility for the current condition of the State finances.
But anyone who thinks any of the other parties would have done anything different since 2019 is kidding themselves.
Low grade infantile incoherence as usual."
|
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"Also the report you are quoting is 4% productivity not gross domestic product
Brexit has damaged the economy, fact
Opinion
It's too soon to say. Medium to long term, I think we will flourish but short term difficulties as we and the EU learn to live apart.
Quite different to the instant economic armageddon that Project Fear said would happen just on a vote to leave! What was it again? 800,000 job losses and property values down 20%?
Turned out employment has never been higher and unemployment never been lower. A property boom ensued. Whatever happens to these two optics going forwards will be as a result of covid and Ukraine. But robot Reeves looks set to only ever blame the temporary Truss turbulence!
I have a motoring analogy for you Rachel : yes Truss crashed the car, but it was not a write-off, it's been property repaired, so stop blaming her for all the other incidents elsewhere in the world that are really pushing up the insurance cost! For an ex BofE employee, it's a ridiculous look.
Claiming that the Brexit damage is only "opinion" is quite possibly the most outlandish thing anyone has written on here. And this is the weirdest place on the internet.
You're right about Truss's term as PM being a car crash though. "
It definitely is just opinion. I'm afraid much of the evidence used by Brexit critics to show a negative Brexit impact is unsound. It relies on erroneous methods and carefully selected dates for comparisons. It also relies on counterfactual scenarios to state that the recent performance of the UK economy could have or should have been better. Such counterfactuals are based on the experiences of other countries or other time periods and are necessarily selective and often inappropriate.
Some prominent Remoaners, such as Lord Rose, have said that as much as half of the UK’s current inflation has been caused by Brexit! This presumably mean that instead of going above 10%, the CPI rate might only be 5%, which would make it one of the lowest in the West. That is clearly absurd!
Unfortunately, some 'expert' remoaners cannot put their ideology aside in economic analyses, so policy debates are distorted, and the public lose even more faith in what Michael Gove called ‘experts from organisations with acronyms’.
The hard uncomfortable evidence for Remoaners is that leaving the EU has had remarkably little impact on the UK economy. Among the major advanced economies, the UK has had one of the faster rates of growth of total GDP since June 2016 and sits comfortably in mid table on growth in GDP per head. UK exports to the EU have recovered to long-term trend levels and the City of London was merely mildly affected directly by Brexit
|
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By *I TwoCouple
over a year ago
PDI 12-26th Nov 24 |
"Also the report you are quoting is 4% productivity not gross domestic product
Brexit has damaged the economy, fact
Opinion
It's too soon to say. Medium to long term, I think we will flourish but short term difficulties as we and the EU learn to live apart.
Quite different to the instant economic armageddon that Project Fear said would happen just on a vote to leave! What was it again? 800,000 job losses and property values down 20%?
Turned out employment has never been higher and unemployment never been lower. A property boom ensued. Whatever happens to these two optics going forwards will be as a result of covid and Ukraine. But robot Reeves looks set to only ever blame the temporary Truss turbulence!
I have a motoring analogy for you Rachel : yes Truss crashed the car, but it was not a write-off, it's been property repaired, so stop blaming her for all the other incidents elsewhere in the world that are really pushing up the insurance cost! For an ex BofE employee, it's a ridiculous look.
Claiming that the Brexit damage is only "opinion" is quite possibly the most outlandish thing anyone has written on here. And this is the weirdest place on the internet.
You're right about Truss's term as PM being a car crash though.
It definitely is just opinion. I'm afraid much of the evidence used by Brexit critics to show a negative Brexit impact is unsound. It relies on erroneous methods and carefully selected dates for comparisons. It also relies on counterfactual scenarios to state that the recent performance of the UK economy could have or should have been better. Such counterfactuals are based on the experiences of other countries or other time periods and are necessarily selective and often inappropriate.
Some prominent Remoaners, such as Lord Rose, have said that as much as half of the UK’s current inflation has been caused by Brexit! This presumably mean that instead of going above 10%, the CPI rate might only be 5%, which would make it one of the lowest in the West. That is clearly absurd!
Unfortunately, some 'expert' remoaners cannot put their ideology aside in economic analyses, so policy debates are distorted, and the public lose even more faith in what Michael Gove called ‘experts from organisations with acronyms’.
The hard uncomfortable evidence for Remoaners is that leaving the EU has had remarkably little impact on the UK economy. Among the major advanced economies, the UK has had one of the faster rates of growth of total GDP since June 2016 and sits comfortably in mid table on growth in GDP per head. UK exports to the EU have recovered to long-term trend levels and the City of London was merely mildly affected directly by Brexit
"
And in other news today .. Alice in Wonderland ate the rabbit !! |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
"Also the report you are quoting is 4% productivity not gross domestic product
Brexit has damaged the economy, fact
Opinion
It's too soon to say. Medium to long term, I think we will flourish but short term difficulties as we and the EU learn to live apart.
Quite different to the instant economic armageddon that Project Fear said would happen just on a vote to leave! What was it again? 800,000 job losses and property values down 20%?
Turned out employment has never been higher and unemployment never been lower. A property boom ensued. Whatever happens to these two optics going forwards will be as a result of covid and Ukraine. But robot Reeves looks set to only ever blame the temporary Truss turbulence!
I have a motoring analogy for you Rachel : yes Truss crashed the car, but it was not a write-off, it's been property repaired, so stop blaming her for all the other incidents elsewhere in the world that are really pushing up the insurance cost! For an ex BofE employee, it's a ridiculous look.
Claiming that the Brexit damage is only "opinion" is quite possibly the most outlandish thing anyone has written on here. And this is the weirdest place on the internet.
You're right about Truss's term as PM being a car crash though.
It definitely is just opinion. I'm afraid much of the evidence used by Brexit critics to show a negative Brexit impact is unsound. It relies on erroneous methods and carefully selected dates for comparisons. It also relies on counterfactual scenarios to state that the recent performance of the UK economy could have or should have been better. Such counterfactuals are based on the experiences of other countries or other time periods and are necessarily selective and often inappropriate.
Some prominent Remoaners, such as Lord Rose, have said that as much as half of the UK’s current inflation has been caused by Brexit! This presumably mean that instead of going above 10%, the CPI rate might only be 5%, which would make it one of the lowest in the West. That is clearly absurd!
Unfortunately, some 'expert' remoaners cannot put their ideology aside in economic analyses, so policy debates are distorted, and the public lose even more faith in what Michael Gove called ‘experts from organisations with acronyms’.
The hard uncomfortable evidence for Remoaners is that leaving the EU has had remarkably little impact on the UK economy. Among the major advanced economies, the UK has had one of the faster rates of growth of total GDP since June 2016 and sits comfortably in mid table on growth in GDP per head. UK exports to the EU have recovered to long-term trend levels and the City of London was merely mildly affected directly by Brexit
"
None of that is true, Brexit is a massive turd |
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"The Right wing press are claiming this is a “Labour Budget” - why can’t the Tory supporters just own the fact that they caused this entire mess in the first place, and admit the government they support is useless?"
Possibly because they can see exogenous global events have had by far and away the biggest impact, rather than the temporary Truss turbulent tenure? The damage is all but repaired. The FTSE now nudging 7400
|
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
"Also the report you are quoting is 4% productivity not gross domestic product
Brexit has damaged the economy, fact
Opinion
It's too soon to say. Medium to long term, I think we will flourish but short term difficulties as we and the EU learn to live apart.
Quite different to the instant economic armageddon that Project Fear said would happen just on a vote to leave! What was it again? 800,000 job losses and property values down 20%?
Turned out employment has never been higher and unemployment never been lower. A property boom ensued. Whatever happens to these two optics going forwards will be as a result of covid and Ukraine. But robot Reeves looks set to only ever blame the temporary Truss turbulence!
I have a motoring analogy for you Rachel : yes Truss crashed the car, but it was not a write-off, it's been property repaired, so stop blaming her for all the other incidents elsewhere in the world that are really pushing up the insurance cost! For an ex BofE employee, it's a ridiculous look.
Claiming that the Brexit damage is only "opinion" is quite possibly the most outlandish thing anyone has written on here. And this is the weirdest place on the internet.
You're right about Truss's term as PM being a car crash though.
It definitely is just opinion. I'm afraid much of the evidence used by Brexit critics to show a negative Brexit impact is unsound. It relies on erroneous methods and carefully selected dates for comparisons. It also relies on counterfactual scenarios to state that the recent performance of the UK economy could have or should have been better. Such counterfactuals are based on the experiences of other countries or other time periods and are necessarily selective and often inappropriate.
Some prominent Remoaners, such as Lord Rose, have said that as much as half of the UK’s current inflation has been caused by Brexit! This presumably mean that instead of going above 10%, the CPI rate might only be 5%, which would make it one of the lowest in the West. That is clearly absurd!
Unfortunately, some 'expert' remoaners cannot put their ideology aside in economic analyses, so policy debates are distorted, and the public lose even more faith in what Michael Gove called ‘experts from organisations with acronyms’.
The hard uncomfortable evidence for Remoaners is that leaving the EU has had remarkably little impact on the UK economy. Among the major advanced economies, the UK has had one of the faster rates of growth of total GDP since June 2016 and sits comfortably in mid table on growth in GDP per head. UK exports to the EU have recovered to long-term trend levels and the City of London was merely mildly affected directly by Brexit
And in other news today .. Alice in Wonderland ate the rabbit !!"
Brexit benefits are like Santa and unicorns, they can only be seen if you really really believe. |
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"Also the report you are quoting is 4% productivity not gross domestic product
Brexit has damaged the economy, fact
Opinion
It's too soon to say. Medium to long term, I think we will flourish but short term difficulties as we and the EU learn to live apart.
Quite different to the instant economic armageddon that Project Fear said would happen just on a vote to leave! What was it again? 800,000 job losses and property values down 20%?
Turned out employment has never been higher and unemployment never been lower. A property boom ensued. Whatever happens to these two optics going forwards will be as a result of covid and Ukraine. But robot Reeves looks set to only ever blame the temporary Truss turbulence!
I have a motoring analogy for you Rachel : yes Truss crashed the car, but it was not a write-off, it's been property repaired, so stop blaming her for all the other incidents elsewhere in the world that are really pushing up the insurance cost! For an ex BofE employee, it's a ridiculous look.
Claiming that the Brexit damage is only "opinion" is quite possibly the most outlandish thing anyone has written on here. And this is the weirdest place on the internet.
You're right about Truss's term as PM being a car crash though.
It definitely is just opinion. I'm afraid much of the evidence used by Brexit critics to show a negative Brexit impact is unsound. It relies on erroneous methods and carefully selected dates for comparisons. It also relies on counterfactual scenarios to state that the recent performance of the UK economy could have or should have been better. Such counterfactuals are based on the experiences of other countries or other time periods and are necessarily selective and often inappropriate.
Some prominent Remoaners, such as Lord Rose, have said that as much as half of the UK’s current inflation has been caused by Brexit! This presumably mean that instead of going above 10%, the CPI rate might only be 5%, which would make it one of the lowest in the West. That is clearly absurd!
Unfortunately, some 'expert' remoaners cannot put their ideology aside in economic analyses, so policy debates are distorted, and the public lose even more faith in what Michael Gove called ‘experts from organisations with acronyms’.
The hard uncomfortable evidence for Remoaners is that leaving the EU has had remarkably little impact on the UK economy. Among the major advanced economies, the UK has had one of the faster rates of growth of total GDP since June 2016 and sits comfortably in mid table on growth in GDP per head. UK exports to the EU have recovered to long-term trend levels and the City of London was merely mildly affected directly by Brexit
And in other news today .. Alice in Wonderland ate the rabbit !!"
Since June 2016 and up until the end of the second quarter of 2022, OECD data shows that the cumulative growth rate of real GDP in Italy was 4%, in Germany was 5.5%, in the U.K. was 6.8% and in France was 7.6%.
Let's be honest, some of those who were critical of the vote to leave have retreated from catastrophe Project Fear scenarios and moved to cherry-picking of data, the use of ‘counterfactuals’, and the very selective deployment of forecasts as if they were already facts. That's fine, but own it that you still can't get over having lost and just have to moan!
|
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Brexit-related job losses or relocations have been small, overall City employment has kept growing, and UK financial services exports have held up well.
There is no evidence that remaining in the EU Single Market and (partially) the EU customs union has been a boon for Northern Ireland.
The lack of evidence for significant harms from Brexit so far is important because it was always likely that most costs would be upfront and relatively visible, whereas most benefits would take longer to come through. Medium to long term we will flourish and thankfully Labour is not going to reverse Brexit
|
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
"Also the report you are quoting is 4% productivity not gross domestic product
Brexit has damaged the economy, fact
Opinion
It's too soon to say. Medium to long term, I think we will flourish but short term difficulties as we and the EU learn to live apart.
Quite different to the instant economic armageddon that Project Fear said would happen just on a vote to leave! What was it again? 800,000 job losses and property values down 20%?
Turned out employment has never been higher and unemployment never been lower. A property boom ensued. Whatever happens to these two optics going forwards will be as a result of covid and Ukraine. But robot Reeves looks set to only ever blame the temporary Truss turbulence!
I have a motoring analogy for you Rachel : yes Truss crashed the car, but it was not a write-off, it's been property repaired, so stop blaming her for all the other incidents elsewhere in the world that are really pushing up the insurance cost! For an ex BofE employee, it's a ridiculous look.
Claiming that the Brexit damage is only "opinion" is quite possibly the most outlandish thing anyone has written on here. And this is the weirdest place on the internet.
You're right about Truss's term as PM being a car crash though.
It definitely is just opinion. I'm afraid much of the evidence used by Brexit critics to show a negative Brexit impact is unsound. It relies on erroneous methods and carefully selected dates for comparisons. It also relies on counterfactual scenarios to state that the recent performance of the UK economy could have or should have been better. Such counterfactuals are based on the experiences of other countries or other time periods and are necessarily selective and often inappropriate.
Some prominent Remoaners, such as Lord Rose, have said that as much as half of the UK’s current inflation has been caused by Brexit! This presumably mean that instead of going above 10%, the CPI rate might only be 5%, which would make it one of the lowest in the West. That is clearly absurd!
Unfortunately, some 'expert' remoaners cannot put their ideology aside in economic analyses, so policy debates are distorted, and the public lose even more faith in what Michael Gove called ‘experts from organisations with acronyms’.
The hard uncomfortable evidence for Remoaners is that leaving the EU has had remarkably little impact on the UK economy. Among the major advanced economies, the UK has had one of the faster rates of growth of total GDP since June 2016 and sits comfortably in mid table on growth in GDP per head. UK exports to the EU have recovered to long-term trend levels and the City of London was merely mildly affected directly by Brexit
And in other news today .. Alice in Wonderland ate the rabbit !!
Since June 2016 and up until the end of the second quarter of 2022, OECD data shows that the cumulative growth rate of real GDP in Italy was 4%, in Germany was 5.5%, in the U.K. was 6.8% and in France was 7.6%.
Let's be honest, some of those who were critical of the vote to leave have retreated from catastrophe Project Fear scenarios and moved to cherry-picking of data, the use of ‘counterfactuals’, and the very selective deployment of forecasts as if they were already facts. That's fine, but own it that you still can't get over having lost and just have to moan!
"
The tide is turning, the press and the general public are slowly realising that Brexit is a massive turd, you were conned, get over it |
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"Also the report you are quoting is 4% productivity not gross domestic product
Brexit has damaged the economy, fact
Opinion
It's too soon to say. Medium to long term, I think we will flourish but short term difficulties as we and the EU learn to live apart.
Quite different to the instant economic armageddon that Project Fear said would happen just on a vote to leave! What was it again? 800,000 job losses and property values down 20%?
Turned out employment has never been higher and unemployment never been lower. A property boom ensued. Whatever happens to these two optics going forwards will be as a result of covid and Ukraine. But robot Reeves looks set to only ever blame the temporary Truss turbulence!
I have a motoring analogy for you Rachel : yes Truss crashed the car, but it was not a write-off, it's been property repaired, so stop blaming her for all the other incidents elsewhere in the world that are really pushing up the insurance cost! For an ex BofE employee, it's a ridiculous look.
Claiming that the Brexit damage is only "opinion" is quite possibly the most outlandish thing anyone has written on here. And this is the weirdest place on the internet.
You're right about Truss's term as PM being a car crash though.
It definitely is just opinion. I'm afraid much of the evidence used by Brexit critics to show a negative Brexit impact is unsound. It relies on erroneous methods and carefully selected dates for comparisons. It also relies on counterfactual scenarios to state that the recent performance of the UK economy could have or should have been better. Such counterfactuals are based on the experiences of other countries or other time periods and are necessarily selective and often inappropriate.
Some prominent Remoaners, such as Lord Rose, have said that as much as half of the UK’s current inflation has been caused by Brexit! This presumably mean that instead of going above 10%, the CPI rate might only be 5%, which would make it one of the lowest in the West. That is clearly absurd!
Unfortunately, some 'expert' remoaners cannot put their ideology aside in economic analyses, so policy debates are distorted, and the public lose even more faith in what Michael Gove called ‘experts from organisations with acronyms’.
The hard uncomfortable evidence for Remoaners is that leaving the EU has had remarkably little impact on the UK economy. Among the major advanced economies, the UK has had one of the faster rates of growth of total GDP since June 2016 and sits comfortably in mid table on growth in GDP per head. UK exports to the EU have recovered to long-term trend levels and the City of London was merely mildly affected directly by Brexit
"
Interesting mix of made up words designed to sound intelligent, and childish insults.
All in all, utter bollocks though.
Brexit has been a fucking disaster for the British economy by every measure. |
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By *eroy1000Man
over a year ago
milton keynes |
"Also the report you're quoting. Is talking about future productivity not a realised 4%
So I just read the post above about the OBR prediction and see they mention the 4% figure for productivity. I understand your quote that this is not GDP and two different things. My question is what does a 4% drop in productivity equal in terms of GDP. I assume it will mean a drop, but by how much. Is there some sort of ratio or is it an impossible question?. Also as these are predictions and not results, is there any actual results yet that we can measure any drop or is it to early at present?
“...Brexit would ultimately reduce productivity and [b]UK gross domestic product by 4 per cent[/b] compared with a world where the country remained inside the EU...”"
Thank you. So the ratio between productivity and gdp would be 1 to 1 then? |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
"Also the report you are quoting is 4% productivity not gross domestic product
Brexit has damaged the economy, fact
Opinion
It's too soon to say. Medium to long term, I think we will flourish but short term difficulties as we and the EU learn to live apart.
Quite different to the instant economic armageddon that Project Fear said would happen just on a vote to leave! What was it again? 800,000 job losses and property values down 20%?
Turned out employment has never been higher and unemployment never been lower. A property boom ensued. Whatever happens to these two optics going forwards will be as a result of covid and Ukraine. But robot Reeves looks set to only ever blame the temporary Truss turbulence!
I have a motoring analogy for you Rachel : yes Truss crashed the car, but it was not a write-off, it's been property repaired, so stop blaming her for all the other incidents elsewhere in the world that are really pushing up the insurance cost! For an ex BofE employee, it's a ridiculous look.
Claiming that the Brexit damage is only "opinion" is quite possibly the most outlandish thing anyone has written on here. And this is the weirdest place on the internet.
You're right about Truss's term as PM being a car crash though.
It definitely is just opinion. I'm afraid much of the evidence used by Brexit critics to show a negative Brexit impact is unsound. It relies on erroneous methods and carefully selected dates for comparisons. It also relies on counterfactual scenarios to state that the recent performance of the UK economy could have or should have been better. Such counterfactuals are based on the experiences of other countries or other time periods and are necessarily selective and often inappropriate.
Some prominent Remoaners, such as Lord Rose, have said that as much as half of the UK’s current inflation has been caused by Brexit! This presumably mean that instead of going above 10%, the CPI rate might only be 5%, which would make it one of the lowest in the West. That is clearly absurd!
Unfortunately, some 'expert' remoaners cannot put their ideology aside in economic analyses, so policy debates are distorted, and the public lose even more faith in what Michael Gove called ‘experts from organisations with acronyms’.
The hard uncomfortable evidence for Remoaners is that leaving the EU has had remarkably little impact on the UK economy. Among the major advanced economies, the UK has had one of the faster rates of growth of total GDP since June 2016 and sits comfortably in mid table on growth in GDP per head. UK exports to the EU have recovered to long-term trend levels and the City of London was merely mildly affected directly by Brexit
And in other news today .. Alice in Wonderland ate the rabbit !!
Since June 2016 and up until the end of the second quarter of 2022, OECD data shows that the cumulative growth rate of real GDP in Italy was 4%, in Germany was 5.5%, in the U.K. was 6.8% and in France was 7.6%.
Let's be honest, some of those who were critical of the vote to leave have retreated from catastrophe Project Fear scenarios and moved to cherry-picking of data, the use of ‘counterfactuals’, and the very selective deployment of forecasts as if they were already facts. That's fine, but own it that you still can't get over having lost and just have to moan!
"
is using 2016 cherry picking ? Id be measuring from when we left the eu. Not voted to leave. Does that change the numbers significantly? |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
The biggest problems in the UK economy are structural, not political. Too few working people, low skills and low productivity, lack of infrastructure investment. The fault of Governments going back decades. Its likely we will keep falling behind more dynamic economies. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
"The reality is that people don't want to pay more tax but they do want us to keep pouring money down the drain on rubbish public services.
The NHS, which is a mediocre health service, now accounts for 45% of every £ that the government spends.
Lockdown, paying people to sit around doing nothing, foreign aid, spending billions to support foreign wars, free hotels for illegal immigrants, failing to deal with ineffectual public services.
If people are happy to go on supporting all this stuff, then they can expect their taxes to continue rising."
Nail, head. |
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"The reality is that people don't want to pay more tax but they do want us to keep pouring money down the drain on rubbish public services.
The NHS, which is a mediocre health service, now accounts for 45% of every £ that the government spends.
Lockdown, paying people to sit around doing nothing, foreign aid, spending billions to support foreign wars, free hotels for illegal immigrants, failing to deal with ineffectual public services.
If people are happy to go on supporting all this stuff, then they can expect their taxes to continue rising.
Nail, head."
Or stop spunking billions on pointless shit like Brexit, and PPE contracts for mates of the Tories etc.
|
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"Also the report you are quoting is 4% productivity not gross domestic product
Brexit has damaged the economy, fact
Opinion
It's too soon to say. Medium to long term, I think we will flourish but short term difficulties as we and the EU learn to live apart.
Quite different to the instant economic armageddon that Project Fear said would happen just on a vote to leave! What was it again? 800,000 job losses and property values down 20%?
Turned out employment has never been higher and unemployment never been lower. A property boom ensued. Whatever happens to these two optics going forwards will be as a result of covid and Ukraine. But robot Reeves looks set to only ever blame the temporary Truss turbulence!
I have a motoring analogy for you Rachel : yes Truss crashed the car, but it was not a write-off, it's been property repaired, so stop blaming her for all the other incidents elsewhere in the world that are really pushing up the insurance cost! For an ex BofE employee, it's a ridiculous look.
Claiming that the Brexit damage is only "opinion" is quite possibly the most outlandish thing anyone has written on here. And this is the weirdest place on the internet.
You're right about Truss's term as PM being a car crash though.
It definitely is just opinion. I'm afraid much of the evidence used by Brexit critics to show a negative Brexit impact is unsound. It relies on erroneous methods and carefully selected dates for comparisons. It also relies on counterfactual scenarios to state that the recent performance of the UK economy could have or should have been better. Such counterfactuals are based on the experiences of other countries or other time periods and are necessarily selective and often inappropriate.
Some prominent Remoaners, such as Lord Rose, have said that as much as half of the UK’s current inflation has been caused by Brexit! This presumably mean that instead of going above 10%, the CPI rate might only be 5%, which would make it one of the lowest in the West. That is clearly absurd!
Unfortunately, some 'expert' remoaners cannot put their ideology aside in economic analyses, so policy debates are distorted, and the public lose even more faith in what Michael Gove called ‘experts from organisations with acronyms’.
The hard uncomfortable evidence for Remoaners is that leaving the EU has had remarkably little impact on the UK economy. Among the major advanced economies, the UK has had one of the faster rates of growth of total GDP since June 2016 and sits comfortably in mid table on growth in GDP per head. UK exports to the EU have recovered to long-term trend levels and the City of London was merely mildly affected directly by Brexit
Interesting mix of made up words designed to sound intelligent, and childish insults.
All in all, utter bollocks though.
Brexit has been a fucking disaster for the British economy by every measure. "
Incorrect
You should be getting behind the Labour mantra "make Brexit work" instead of running the country down.
Anna McMorrin, Labour shadow minister, was recorded recently telling activists: “I hope eventually that we will get back into the single market and customs union.” She was forced to apologise by Starmer: such talk remains dangerous in political circles.
Disentangling the economic effects of Brexit and the Covid-19/Ukraine disastrous double act is difficult but there is absolutely no hard evidence Brexit has made things worse beyond short term issues as the EU and UK learn to live apart. Medium to long term, we will flourish
|
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"Also the report you are quoting is 4% productivity not gross domestic product
Brexit has damaged the economy, fact
Opinion
It's too soon to say. Medium to long term, I think we will flourish but short term difficulties as we and the EU learn to live apart.
Quite different to the instant economic armageddon that Project Fear said would happen just on a vote to leave! What was it again? 800,000 job losses and property values down 20%?
Turned out employment has never been higher and unemployment never been lower. A property boom ensued. Whatever happens to these two optics going forwards will be as a result of covid and Ukraine. But robot Reeves looks set to only ever blame the temporary Truss turbulence!
I have a motoring analogy for you Rachel : yes Truss crashed the car, but it was not a write-off, it's been property repaired, so stop blaming her for all the other incidents elsewhere in the world that are really pushing up the insurance cost! For an ex BofE employee, it's a ridiculous look.
Claiming that the Brexit damage is only "opinion" is quite possibly the most outlandish thing anyone has written on here. And this is the weirdest place on the internet.
You're right about Truss's term as PM being a car crash though.
It definitely is just opinion. I'm afraid much of the evidence used by Brexit critics to show a negative Brexit impact is unsound. It relies on erroneous methods and carefully selected dates for comparisons. It also relies on counterfactual scenarios to state that the recent performance of the UK economy could have or should have been better. Such counterfactuals are based on the experiences of other countries or other time periods and are necessarily selective and often inappropriate.
Some prominent Remoaners, such as Lord Rose, have said that as much as half of the UK’s current inflation has been caused by Brexit! This presumably mean that instead of going above 10%, the CPI rate might only be 5%, which would make it one of the lowest in the West. That is clearly absurd!
Unfortunately, some 'expert' remoaners cannot put their ideology aside in economic analyses, so policy debates are distorted, and the public lose even more faith in what Michael Gove called ‘experts from organisations with acronyms’.
The hard uncomfortable evidence for Remoaners is that leaving the EU has had remarkably little impact on the UK economy. Among the major advanced economies, the UK has had one of the faster rates of growth of total GDP since June 2016 and sits comfortably in mid table on growth in GDP per head. UK exports to the EU have recovered to long-term trend levels and the City of London was merely mildly affected directly by Brexit
And in other news today .. Alice in Wonderland ate the rabbit !!
Since June 2016 and up until the end of the second quarter of 2022, OECD data shows that the cumulative growth rate of real GDP in Italy was 4%, in Germany was 5.5%, in the U.K. was 6.8% and in France was 7.6%.
Let's be honest, some of those who were critical of the vote to leave have retreated from catastrophe Project Fear scenarios and moved to cherry-picking of data, the use of ‘counterfactuals’, and the very selective deployment of forecasts as if they were already facts. That's fine, but own it that you still can't get over having lost and just have to moan!
is using 2016 cherry picking ? Id be measuring from when we left the eu. Not voted to leave. Does that change the numbers significantly?"
Disentangling the economic effects of Brexit and the Covid-19/Ukraine disastrous double act is difficult because the pandemic arrived one month after we left. Had Starmer/Corbyn not tried to thwart democracy with people's votes etc, we might have left earlier and be able to answer better. |
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|
By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
"Also the report you are quoting is 4% productivity not gross domestic product
Brexit has damaged the economy, fact
Opinion
It's too soon to say. Medium to long term, I think we will flourish but short term difficulties as we and the EU learn to live apart.
Quite different to the instant economic armageddon that Project Fear said would happen just on a vote to leave! What was it again? 800,000 job losses and property values down 20%?
Turned out employment has never been higher and unemployment never been lower. A property boom ensued. Whatever happens to these two optics going forwards will be as a result of covid and Ukraine. But robot Reeves looks set to only ever blame the temporary Truss turbulence!
I have a motoring analogy for you Rachel : yes Truss crashed the car, but it was not a write-off, it's been property repaired, so stop blaming her for all the other incidents elsewhere in the world that are really pushing up the insurance cost! For an ex BofE employee, it's a ridiculous look.
Claiming that the Brexit damage is only "opinion" is quite possibly the most outlandish thing anyone has written on here. And this is the weirdest place on the internet.
You're right about Truss's term as PM being a car crash though.
It definitely is just opinion. I'm afraid much of the evidence used by Brexit critics to show a negative Brexit impact is unsound. It relies on erroneous methods and carefully selected dates for comparisons. It also relies on counterfactual scenarios to state that the recent performance of the UK economy could have or should have been better. Such counterfactuals are based on the experiences of other countries or other time periods and are necessarily selective and often inappropriate.
Some prominent Remoaners, such as Lord Rose, have said that as much as half of the UK’s current inflation has been caused by Brexit! This presumably mean that instead of going above 10%, the CPI rate might only be 5%, which would make it one of the lowest in the West. That is clearly absurd!
Unfortunately, some 'expert' remoaners cannot put their ideology aside in economic analyses, so policy debates are distorted, and the public lose even more faith in what Michael Gove called ‘experts from organisations with acronyms’.
The hard uncomfortable evidence for Remoaners is that leaving the EU has had remarkably little impact on the UK economy. Among the major advanced economies, the UK has had one of the faster rates of growth of total GDP since June 2016 and sits comfortably in mid table on growth in GDP per head. UK exports to the EU have recovered to long-term trend levels and the City of London was merely mildly affected directly by Brexit
And in other news today .. Alice in Wonderland ate the rabbit !!
Since June 2016 and up until the end of the second quarter of 2022, OECD data shows that the cumulative growth rate of real GDP in Italy was 4%, in Germany was 5.5%, in the U.K. was 6.8% and in France was 7.6%.
Let's be honest, some of those who were critical of the vote to leave have retreated from catastrophe Project Fear scenarios and moved to cherry-picking of data, the use of ‘counterfactuals’, and the very selective deployment of forecasts as if they were already facts. That's fine, but own it that you still can't get over having lost and just have to moan!
is using 2016 cherry picking ? Id be measuring from when we left the eu. Not voted to leave. Does that change the numbers significantly?
Disentangling the economic effects of Brexit and the Covid-19/Ukraine disastrous double act is difficult because the pandemic arrived one month after we left. Had Starmer/Corbyn not tried to thwart democracy with people's votes etc, we might have left earlier and be able to answer better. "
I don't disagree. Although all countries were exposed to that so any difference*could* be attributed to brecit
I'd also argue that most of the effect would be once the deal was in place / enforced. Which is why 2016 doesn't feel right. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
"Also the report you are quoting is 4% productivity not gross domestic product
Brexit has damaged the economy, fact
Opinion
It's too soon to say. Medium to long term, I think we will flourish but short term difficulties as we and the EU learn to live apart.
Quite different to the instant economic armageddon that Project Fear said would happen just on a vote to leave! What was it again? 800,000 job losses and property values down 20%?
Turned out employment has never been higher and unemployment never been lower. A property boom ensued. Whatever happens to these two optics going forwards will be as a result of covid and Ukraine. But robot Reeves looks set to only ever blame the temporary Truss turbulence!
I have a motoring analogy for you Rachel : yes Truss crashed the car, but it was not a write-off, it's been property repaired, so stop blaming her for all the other incidents elsewhere in the world that are really pushing up the insurance cost! For an ex BofE employee, it's a ridiculous look.
Claiming that the Brexit damage is only "opinion" is quite possibly the most outlandish thing anyone has written on here. And this is the weirdest place on the internet.
You're right about Truss's term as PM being a car crash though.
It definitely is just opinion. I'm afraid much of the evidence used by Brexit critics to show a negative Brexit impact is unsound. It relies on erroneous methods and carefully selected dates for comparisons. It also relies on counterfactual scenarios to state that the recent performance of the UK economy could have or should have been better. Such counterfactuals are based on the experiences of other countries or other time periods and are necessarily selective and often inappropriate.
Some prominent Remoaners, such as Lord Rose, have said that as much as half of the UK’s current inflation has been caused by Brexit! This presumably mean that instead of going above 10%, the CPI rate might only be 5%, which would make it one of the lowest in the West. That is clearly absurd!
Unfortunately, some 'expert' remoaners cannot put their ideology aside in economic analyses, so policy debates are distorted, and the public lose even more faith in what Michael Gove called ‘experts from organisations with acronyms’.
The hard uncomfortable evidence for Remoaners is that leaving the EU has had remarkably little impact on the UK economy. Among the major advanced economies, the UK has had one of the faster rates of growth of total GDP since June 2016 and sits comfortably in mid table on growth in GDP per head. UK exports to the EU have recovered to long-term trend levels and the City of London was merely mildly affected directly by Brexit
And in other news today .. Alice in Wonderland ate the rabbit !!
Since June 2016 and up until the end of the second quarter of 2022, OECD data shows that the cumulative growth rate of real GDP in Italy was 4%, in Germany was 5.5%, in the U.K. was 6.8% and in France was 7.6%.
Let's be honest, some of those who were critical of the vote to leave have retreated from catastrophe Project Fear scenarios and moved to cherry-picking of data, the use of ‘counterfactuals’, and the very selective deployment of forecasts as if they were already facts. That's fine, but own it that you still can't get over having lost and just have to moan!
is using 2016 cherry picking ? Id be measuring from when we left the eu. Not voted to leave. Does that change the numbers significantly?
Disentangling the economic effects of Brexit and the Covid-19/Ukraine disastrous double act is difficult because the pandemic arrived one month after we left. Had Starmer/Corbyn not tried to thwart democracy with people's votes etc, we might have left earlier and be able to answer better. "
You thought you knew what you were voting for, you were conned, get over it |
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"We will all pay more tax but not at a an even spread those doing tax will cary on and pay even less.
dodging?
Yes so how has ever asked a trad person how much for cash for an example."
How? By asking? If they are not vat registered, why would you not ask them for their best price |
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Pay me in cash it dose not go into my company so no cooperation tax to pay. No dividend tax to pay.
Saving to me 28.5% in non payment of tax the cash economy in the UK is still strong.
Just being honest. |
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By *ebbie69Couple
over a year ago
milton keynes |
"Also the report you are quoting is 4% productivity not gross domestic product
Brexit has damaged the economy, fact
Opinion
It's too soon to say. Medium to long term, I think we will flourish but short term difficulties as we and the EU learn to live apart.
Quite different to the instant economic armageddon that Project Fear said would happen just on a vote to leave! What was it again? 800,000 job losses and property values down 20%?
Turned out employment has never been higher and unemployment never been lower. A property boom ensued. Whatever happens to these two optics going forwards will be as a result of covid and Ukraine. But robot Reeves looks set to only ever blame the temporary Truss turbulence!
I have a motoring analogy for you Rachel : yes Truss crashed the car, but it was not a write-off, it's been property repaired, so stop blaming her for all the other incidents elsewhere in the world that are really pushing up the insurance cost! For an ex BofE employee, it's a ridiculous look.
Claiming that the Brexit damage is only "opinion" is quite possibly the most outlandish thing anyone has written on here. And this is the weirdest place on the internet.
You're right about Truss's term as PM being a car crash though.
It definitely is just opinion. I'm afraid much of the evidence used by Brexit critics to show a negative Brexit impact is unsound. It relies on erroneous methods and carefully selected dates for comparisons. It also relies on counterfactual scenarios to state that the recent performance of the UK economy could have or should have been better. Such counterfactuals are based on the experiences of other countries or other time periods and are necessarily selective and often inappropriate.
Some prominent Remoaners, such as Lord Rose, have said that as much as half of the UK’s current inflation has been caused by Brexit! This presumably mean that instead of going above 10%, the CPI rate might only be 5%, which would make it one of the lowest in the West. That is clearly absurd!
Unfortunately, some 'expert' remoaners cannot put their ideology aside in economic analyses, so policy debates are distorted, and the public lose even more faith in what Michael Gove called ‘experts from organisations with acronyms’.
The hard uncomfortable evidence for Remoaners is that leaving the EU has had remarkably little impact on the UK economy. Among the major advanced economies, the UK has had one of the faster rates of growth of total GDP since June 2016 and sits comfortably in mid table on growth in GDP per head. UK exports to the EU have recovered to long-term trend levels and the City of London was merely mildly affected directly by Brexit
And in other news today .. Alice in Wonderland ate the rabbit !!
Since June 2016 and up until the end of the second quarter of 2022, OECD data shows that the cumulative growth rate of real GDP in Italy was 4%, in Germany was 5.5%, in the U.K. was 6.8% and in France was 7.6%.
Let's be honest, some of those who were critical of the vote to leave have retreated from catastrophe Project Fear scenarios and moved to cherry-picking of data, the use of ‘counterfactuals’, and the very selective deployment of forecasts as if they were already facts. That's fine, but own it that you still can't get over having lost and just have to moan!
is using 2016 cherry picking ? Id be measuring from when we left the eu. Not voted to leave. Does that change the numbers significantly?"
Yes I would guess there is an element of cherry picking which we see with many reports. I suppose you could say that brexit started affecting from the vote onwards so quoting back to 2016 is relevant. If you want to highlight the fall in sterling then 2016 is also a popular starting point. The data about GDP does appear accurate. If you hold the world bank in any kind of esteem then they show that from 2016 to the end of last year the UK compares favourably to Germany, France and Italy who are the top 3 economies. As I say it seems like a cherry picking exercise a bit. If you are interested in when the UK actually left and onwards then it's the same story so far. Obviously there has only been 1 completed year which resulted in the UK GDP growth again comparing favourably to the top 3 EU economies. I imagine 2022 will not be so good or indeed 2023. |
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"Also the report you are quoting is 4% productivity not gross domestic product
Brexit has damaged the economy, fact
Opinion
It's too soon to say. Medium to long term, I think we will flourish but short term difficulties as we and the EU learn to live apart.
Quite different to the instant economic armageddon that Project Fear said would happen just on a vote to leave! What was it again? 800,000 job losses and property values down 20%?
Turned out employment has never been higher and unemployment never been lower. A property boom ensued. Whatever happens to these two optics going forwards will be as a result of covid and Ukraine. But robot Reeves looks set to only ever blame the temporary Truss turbulence!
I have a motoring analogy for you Rachel : yes Truss crashed the car, but it was not a write-off, it's been property repaired, so stop blaming her for all the other incidents elsewhere in the world that are really pushing up the insurance cost! For an ex BofE employee, it's a ridiculous look.
Claiming that the Brexit damage is only "opinion" is quite possibly the most outlandish thing anyone has written on here. And this is the weirdest place on the internet.
You're right about Truss's term as PM being a car crash though.
It definitely is just opinion. I'm afraid much of the evidence used by Brexit critics to show a negative Brexit impact is unsound. It relies on erroneous methods and carefully selected dates for comparisons. It also relies on counterfactual scenarios to state that the recent performance of the UK economy could have or should have been better. Such counterfactuals are based on the experiences of other countries or other time periods and are necessarily selective and often inappropriate.
Some prominent Remoaners, such as Lord Rose, have said that as much as half of the UK’s current inflation has been caused by Brexit! This presumably mean that instead of going above 10%, the CPI rate might only be 5%, which would make it one of the lowest in the West. That is clearly absurd!
Unfortunately, some 'expert' remoaners cannot put their ideology aside in economic analyses, so policy debates are distorted, and the public lose even more faith in what Michael Gove called ‘experts from organisations with acronyms’.
The hard uncomfortable evidence for Remoaners is that leaving the EU has had remarkably little impact on the UK economy. Among the major advanced economies, the UK has had one of the faster rates of growth of total GDP since June 2016 and sits comfortably in mid table on growth in GDP per head. UK exports to the EU have recovered to long-term trend levels and the City of London was merely mildly affected directly by Brexit
Interesting mix of made up words designed to sound intelligent, and childish insults.
All in all, utter bollocks though.
Brexit has been a fucking disaster for the British economy by every measure.
Incorrect
You should be getting behind the Labour mantra "make Brexit work" instead of running the country down.
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I voted not to run the country down. But I get your point, 'political dissent is running the country down' which you must know is bullshit of the lowest order?
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Anna McMorrin, Labour shadow minister, was recorded recently telling activists: “I hope eventually that we will get back into the single market and customs union.” She was forced to apologise by Starmer: such talk remains dangerous in political circles.
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What has this got to do with Brexit being a disaster for the British economy?
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Disentangling the economic effects of Brexit and the Covid-19/Ukraine disastrous double act is difficult but there is absolutely no hard evidence Brexit has made things worse beyond short term issues as the EU and UK learn to live apart. Medium to long term, we will flourish
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You can claim the moon is made of cheese or that there is "no hard evidence brexit has made things worse...." As much as you like. But it has absolutely no basis in reality.
I do admire your ability to hang on to the brexit dream against all reason and against what's happening in real life. |
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