FabSwingers.com > Forums > Politics > New PM (continued)
New PM (continued)
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My money is on a OWG (Old White Guy).
And that means someone still serving who has gravitas.
Sir Graham Brady could stand.
Andrew Murrison
Ben Wallace
Sir Geoffrey Cox
Or a real shock and not an OWG or someone with grativas, but she's a real career climber...
Priti Patel
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I think Boris and Rishi will both get over the hundred nomination mark and no one else will. It will then go to an online vote of the Tory members and they will vote for Boris.
A decent chunk of the current Tory MPs will then resign the whip because they don’t want Boris. The interesting question then is whether enough resign to force a general election. If they do force that then the question becomes what do they do as they can’t stand as Conservatives. Do they set up a new party? |
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By *oo hotCouple
over a year ago
North West |
"Johnson's supporters have moved early to make it look like he has momentum but it's limited, he won't officially launch unless he thinks he's guaranteed 100 nominations."
The country has a £70 billion hole to fill and some people think that a man who has no time for details is a good shout to be PM.
This is the problem we have in a nutshell. Too many people think that personality is the most important attribute to be a Prime Minister.
We need someone with a technical mind, someone with an eye for detail and a natural tendency for prudence. |
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By *ovebjsMan
over a year ago
Bristol |
"Johnson's supporters have moved early to make it look like he has momentum but it's limited, he won't officially launch unless he thinks he's guaranteed 100 nominations."
That’s why the 1922 committee set it at a 100 as they are desperate to stop Boris running for the position
They tried last time to position their favourite Rishi into the job but forgot the public pushback per of me wants him to win because the opposition are all panicking  |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"Johnson's supporters have moved early to make it look like he has momentum but it's limited, he won't officially launch unless he thinks he's guaranteed 100 nominations."
If it goes to the members Boris will definitely win, but the Tory MPs won’t allow that |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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Can only be 1 and thats in my opinion is going to be Boris.
I base that assumption on he has been there b4 and kinda kept things ticking over without the finical markwt falling apart , plus he was a good laugh and added a bit off humour to politics . But WTF do i no about Politics  |
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"Johnson's supporters have moved early to make it look like he has momentum but it's limited, he won't officially launch unless he thinks he's guaranteed 100 nominations.
If it goes to the members Boris will definitely win, but the Tory MPs won’t allow that "
Watching TV last night I was under the impression that if there are two nominations over the limit then it would go to an online member vote. I don’t see what the other Tory MPs could do to stop him teaching that limit. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"Johnson's supporters have moved early to make it look like he has momentum but it's limited, he won't officially launch unless he thinks he's guaranteed 100 nominations.
If it goes to the members Boris will definitely win, but the Tory MPs won’t allow that
Watching TV last night I was under the impression that if there are two nominations over the limit then it would go to an online member vote. I don’t see what the other Tory MPs could do to stop him teaching that limit."
Watch them, apart from the usual suspects none of the ‘big hitters’ are backing him, he is just playing games , he won’t win but if he does then it will be hilarious to watch the Tory party implode  |
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"Johnson's supporters have moved early to make it look like he has momentum but it's limited, he won't officially launch unless he thinks he's guaranteed 100 nominations.
If it goes to the members Boris will definitely win, but the Tory MPs won’t allow that "
I think there's merit in this, surely they won't elect yet another one unfit to hold the office..
They've just done it twice, three times really does make them look stupid.. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"Johnson's supporters have moved early to make it look like he has momentum but it's limited, he won't officially launch unless he thinks he's guaranteed 100 nominations.
If it goes to the members Boris will definitely win, but the Tory MPs won’t allow that
I think there's merit in this, surely they won't elect yet another one unfit to hold the office..
They've just done it twice, three times really does make them look stupid.."
They talk about uniting the party, Boris would divide the party, but then again so would Sunak, maybe it will be Mourdant, also, if Boris did win who could possibly be in his cabinet |
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"He genuinely if BoJo got back in I think I will sell the house and move to another country.
Wales or Cornwall perhaps Greenland."
You do know that Wales and Cornwall would still have him as their PM in that case….? |
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"He genuinely if BoJo got back in I think I will sell the house and move to another country.
Wales or Cornwall perhaps Greenland.
You do know that Wales and Cornwall would still have him as their PM in that case….?"
Yeah but at least in Wales you can call him a cunt in a different language and in Cornwall they hate everyone regardless so I'll fit in just fine.
Plus I like paddle boarding. |
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"He genuinely if BoJo got back in I think I will sell the house and move to another country.
Wales or Cornwall perhaps Greenland.
You do know that Wales and Cornwall would still have him as their PM in that case….?
Yeah but at least in Wales you can call him a cunt in a different language and in Cornwall they hate everyone regardless so I'll fit in just fine.
Plus I like paddle boarding."
I am sure the Cornish would be more than happy with a bunch of paddle boarding South Easterners taking even more of their limited housing stock. It is so easy for the youngsters down there to get a place to live after all. |
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"He genuinely if BoJo got back in I think I will sell the house and move to another country.
Wales or Cornwall perhaps Greenland.
You do know that Wales and Cornwall would still have him as their PM in that case….?
Yeah but at least in Wales you can call him a cunt in a different language and in Cornwall they hate everyone regardless so I'll fit in just fine.
Plus I like paddle boarding.
I am sure the Cornish would be more than happy with a bunch of paddle boarding South Easterners taking even more of their limited housing stock. It is so easy for the youngsters down there to get a place to live after all."
Wow serious much!!
I was only joking |
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"He genuinely if BoJo got back in I think I will sell the house and move to another country.
Wales or Cornwall perhaps Greenland.
You do know that Wales and Cornwall would still have him as their PM in that case….?
Yeah but at least in Wales you can call him a cunt in a different language and in Cornwall they hate everyone regardless so I'll fit in just fine.
Plus I like paddle boarding.
I am sure the Cornish would be more than happy with a bunch of paddle boarding South Easterners taking even more of their limited housing stock. It is so easy for the youngsters down there to get a place to live after all.
Wow serious much!!
I was only joking "
You can never tell in this place  |
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By *irldnCouple
over a year ago
Brighton |
Amazing isn’t it. The two Tory front runners are Johnson and Sunak! Beggars belief there is nobody else.
Boris Johnson is a liar. He misled parliament. He oversaw corruption. His policies led to tens of thousands of excess Covid deaths. He was convicted of a crime in office. He signed a Brexit deal he hadn’t read. He ignored warnings about a known sex pest and appointed him. He was clearly a compromised security risk who partied with ex KGB agents. He ignored obvious covid rules of his chief advisor and even defended him. He allowed and attended parties while everyone else was in covid lockdown.
Sunak’s wife avoided £millions in tax falsely claiming non-dom status (married to the man who sets tax policy). His wife had two companies that received £millions in govt support during covid and were then wound up so they did not have to pay back anything. He decimated the freelance/self employed IT industry paving the way for large outsourcing companies to gobble up contracts, including the company his father-in-law and wife owns. His ill-conceived covid support packages allowed fraud on an unprecedented level that will never be recovered losing the public purse £billions. He broke US and UK law by still holding a Green Card that requires sworn allegiance to the USA (not a good look for the 2nd most important UK minister). He was part of the banking team that helped to cause the 2008 financial meltdown hugely enriching himself in the process.
Neither are fit for government and certainly not the top job! |
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"Amazing isn’t it. The two Tory front runners are Johnson and Sunak! Beggars belief there is nobody else.
Boris Johnson is a liar. He misled parliament. He oversaw corruption. His policies led to tens of thousands of excess Covid deaths. He was convicted of a crime in office. He signed a Brexit deal he hadn’t read. He ignored warnings about a known sex pest and appointed him. He was clearly a compromised security risk who partied with ex KGB agents. He ignored obvious covid rules of his chief advisor and even defended him. He allowed and attended parties while everyone else was in covid lockdown.
Sunak’s wife avoided £millions in tax falsely claiming non-dom status (married to the man who sets tax policy). His wife had two companies that received £millions in govt support during covid and were then wound up so they did not have to pay back anything. He decimated the freelance/self employed IT industry paving the way for large outsourcing companies to gobble up contracts, including the company his father-in-law and wife owns. His ill-conceived covid support packages allowed fraud on an unprecedented level that will never be recovered losing the public purse £billions. He broke US and UK law by still holding a Green Card that requires sworn allegiance to the USA (not a good look for the 2nd most important UK minister). He was part of the banking team that helped to cause the 2008 financial meltdown hugely enriching himself in the process.
Neither are fit for government and certainly not the top job!"
Sooo not a fan of either then? |
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By *abioMan
over a year ago
Newcastle and Gateshead |
Johnson winning is I believe the quickest way to get to a general election….
Who is going to serve in his administration after all the note’s telling him he had to go last time
I think you would have a ton of Tory mps either resign or defect to the point you would have a vote of no confidence! |
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"Amazing isn’t it. The two Tory front runners are Johnson and Sunak! Beggars belief there is nobody else.
Boris Johnson is a liar. He misled parliament. He oversaw corruption. His policies led to tens of thousands of excess Covid deaths. He was convicted of a crime in office. He signed a Brexit deal he hadn’t read. He ignored warnings about a known sex pest and appointed him. He was clearly a compromised security risk who partied with ex KGB agents. He ignored obvious covid rules of his chief advisor and even defended him. He allowed and attended parties while everyone else was in covid lockdown.
Sunak’s wife avoided £millions in tax falsely claiming non-dom status (married to the man who sets tax policy). His wife had two companies that received £millions in govt support during covid and were then wound up so they did not have to pay back anything. He decimated the freelance/self employed IT industry paving the way for large outsourcing companies to gobble up contracts, including the company his father-in-law and wife owns. His ill-conceived covid support packages allowed fraud on an unprecedented level that will never be recovered losing the public purse £billions. He broke US and UK law by still holding a Green Card that requires sworn allegiance to the USA (not a good look for the 2nd most important UK minister). He was part of the banking team that helped to cause the 2008 financial meltdown hugely enriching himself in the process.
Neither are fit for government and certainly not the top job!"
To look at just a couple of things:
Akshata Murty had non-dom status because she met the criteria. She didn't 'falsely claim' it.
A US green card is a permanent residence permit. It gives the holder the right to live in the US. It isn't citizenship, it doesn't require you to relinquish your nationality, and it doesn't need you to swear allegiance to the US. Nor did he break any British or US law by holding one. |
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"Johnson winning is I believe the quickest way to get to a general election…."
Let's assume that Boris wins the party vote and is appointed PM, and that the King intervenes and says there should be a general election.
If the Tories say that Boris will be in charge, and that the election would be the country's chance to forgive him and move on, I think there's a good chance that he'd win. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"Johnson winning is I believe the quickest way to get to a general election….
Let's assume that Boris wins the party vote and is appointed PM, and that the King intervenes and says there should be a general election.
If the Tories say that Boris will be in charge, and that the election would be the country's chance to forgive him and move on, I think there's a good chance that he'd win."
What are you basing that prediction on? |
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"Johnson winning is I believe the quickest way to get to a general election….
Let's assume that Boris wins the party vote and is appointed PM, and that the King intervenes and says there should be a general election.
If the Tories say that Boris will be in charge, and that the election would be the country's chance to forgive him and move on, I think there's a good chance that he'd win."
The Tories will win the next election whenever it may happen to be. Doesn't matter who is at the helm. |
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"Let's assume that Boris wins the party vote and is appointed PM, and that the King intervenes and says there should be a general election.
If the Tories say that Boris will be in charge, and that the election would be the country's chance to forgive him and move on, I think there's a good chance that he'd win."
"What are you basing that prediction on? "
Just discussions with people, and my interpretation of what they say.
I get the feeling that a lot of people liked Boris himself, and were happy with the direction that his government was taking, but they accept that he had to be kicked out because he went too far when he was caught out in an obvious lie.
If he apologised, said that he was a changed man and wouldn't do it again, and told the country that they have the chance to forgive him at a general election, I think a lot of people would accept it and hand him their vote.
Obviously, I don't think that any of this is at all likely, but I'm not convinced that the public are 100% against him. Well, I'm not convinced that the public are even 50% against him. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"Let's assume that Boris wins the party vote and is appointed PM, and that the King intervenes and says there should be a general election.
If the Tories say that Boris will be in charge, and that the election would be the country's chance to forgive him and move on, I think there's a good chance that he'd win.
What are you basing that prediction on?
Just discussions with people, and my interpretation of what they say.
I get the feeling that a lot of people liked Boris himself, and were happy with the direction that his government was taking, but they accept that he had to be kicked out because he went too far when he was caught out in an obvious lie.
If he apologised, said that he was a changed man and wouldn't do it again, and told the country that they have the chance to forgive him at a general election, I think a lot of people would accept it and hand him their vote.
Obviously, I don't think that any of this is at all likely, but I'm not convinced that the public are 100% against him. Well, I'm not convinced that the public are even 50% against him."
The polls before he left suggested otherwise, so, How many people have you ‘discussed’ this with? |
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By *irldnCouple
over a year ago
Brighton |
"Amazing isn’t it. The two Tory front runners are Johnson and Sunak! Beggars belief there is nobody else.
Boris Johnson is a liar. He misled parliament. He oversaw corruption. His policies led to tens of thousands of excess Covid deaths. He was convicted of a crime in office. He signed a Brexit deal he hadn’t read. He ignored warnings about a known sex pest and appointed him. He was clearly a compromised security risk who partied with ex KGB agents. He ignored obvious covid rules of his chief advisor and even defended him. He allowed and attended parties while everyone else was in covid lockdown.
Sunak’s wife avoided £millions in tax falsely claiming non-dom status (married to the man who sets tax policy). His wife had two companies that received £millions in govt support during covid and were then wound up so they did not have to pay back anything. He decimated the freelance/self employed IT industry paving the way for large outsourcing companies to gobble up contracts, including the company his father-in-law and wife owns. His ill-conceived covid support packages allowed fraud on an unprecedented level that will never be recovered losing the public purse £billions. He broke US and UK law by still holding a Green Card that requires sworn allegiance to the USA (not a good look for the 2nd most important UK minister). He was part of the banking team that helped to cause the 2008 financial meltdown hugely enriching himself in the process.
Neither are fit for government and certainly not the top job!
To look at just a couple of things:
Akshata Murty had non-dom status because she met the criteria. She didn't 'falsely claim' it.
A US green card is a permanent residence permit. It gives the holder the right to live in the US. It isn't citizenship, it doesn't require you to relinquish your nationality, and it doesn't need you to swear allegiance to the US. Nor did he break any British or US law by holding one."
She didn’t but it was “brushed under the carpet” because her husband was in charge of policy.
There are tax responsibilities of holding a Green Card and an expectation of being a citizen in future. A very poor look for a Minister. |
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"Amazing isn’t it. The two Tory front runners are Johnson and Sunak! Beggars belief there is nobody else.
Boris Johnson is a liar. He misled parliament. He oversaw corruption. His policies led to tens of thousands of excess Covid deaths. He was convicted of a crime in office. He signed a Brexit deal he hadn’t read. He ignored warnings about a known sex pest and appointed him. He was clearly a compromised security risk who partied with ex KGB agents. He ignored obvious covid rules of his chief advisor and even defended him. He allowed and attended parties while everyone else was in covid lockdown.
Sunak’s wife avoided £millions in tax falsely claiming non-dom status (married to the man who sets tax policy). His wife had two companies that received £millions in govt support during covid and were then wound up so they did not have to pay back anything. He decimated the freelance/self employed IT industry paving the way for large outsourcing companies to gobble up contracts, including the company his father-in-law and wife owns. His ill-conceived covid support packages allowed fraud on an unprecedented level that will never be recovered losing the public purse £billions. He broke US and UK law by still holding a Green Card that requires sworn allegiance to the USA (not a good look for the 2nd most important UK minister). He was part of the banking team that helped to cause the 2008 financial meltdown hugely enriching himself in the process.
Neither are fit for government and certainly not the top job!
To look at just a couple of things:
Akshata Murty had non-dom status because she met the criteria. She didn't 'falsely claim' it.
A US green card is a permanent residence permit. It gives the holder the right to live in the US. It isn't citizenship, it doesn't require you to relinquish your nationality, and it doesn't need you to swear allegiance to the US. Nor did he break any British or US law by holding one.
She didn’t but it was “brushed under the carpet” because her husband was in charge of policy.
There are tax responsibilities of holding a Green Card and an expectation of being a citizen in future. A very poor look for a Minister."
I totally agree re the non Dom status of his wife but I do believe the green card was pontification to try and undermine the ‘serious’ Rishi rather than the outright ‘fantasist’ Truss. I doubt we would be in trouble at all if the Tory party membership were not full of old pensioners and tufton street acolytes. |
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By *irldnCouple
over a year ago
Brighton |
"Johnson or Sunak - lord help us if this is our only options. Neither are suitable to hold the office of PM."
Totally 100% agree with you Seb. What a sorry state of affairs!
If Sunak wins poor old Pat will have to tie himself up in knots to find a way to justify his new found support for the “winner” who he’d previously called a traitorous snake for back stabbing Johnson. Popcorn on the menu...sgain! |
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By *abioMan
over a year ago
Newcastle and Gateshead |
"Johnson winning is I believe the quickest way to get to a general election….
Let's assume that Boris wins the party vote and is appointed PM, and that the King intervenes and says there should be a general election.
If the Tories say that Boris will be in charge, and that the election would be the country's chance to forgive him and move on, I think there's a good chance that he'd win."
The king won’t intervene… but I believe that the only way boris could govern with any sort of power within his own base would be a new mandate from the public through a general election!
He can then say, well they still believe in me!
Otherwise it will just be by elections from retiring mps… and defections weekly.. till we get to the point where he gives in to the inevitable |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"Johnson winning is I believe the quickest way to get to a general election….
Let's assume that Boris wins the party vote and is appointed PM, and that the King intervenes and says there should be a general election.
If the Tories say that Boris will be in charge, and that the election would be the country's chance to forgive him and move on, I think there's a good chance that he'd win.
The king won’t intervene… but I believe that the only way boris could govern with any sort of power within his own base would be a new mandate from the public through a general election!
He can then say, well they still believe in me!
Otherwise it will just be by elections from retiring mps… and defections weekly.. till we get to the point where he gives in to the inevitable "
Not to mention the inquiry in November, if the Tories let him back in it will be carnage but great entertainment |
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By *abioMan
over a year ago
Newcastle and Gateshead |
I’ll give you 2 different scenarios….
1) Johnson wins , becomes pm…. Tories en mass either resign the whip or cross the floor…. Labour calls a vote of no confidence… general election!!!
2) Johnson wins, becomes pm… some tories resign whip or cross floor, not quite enough for VoNC because of backing of the DUP… limps along for a bit until parliament standards report is due…. Just before release is due he dissolves parliament so it can’t come out! He calls a general election! |
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"I’ll give you 2 different scenarios….
1) Johnson wins , becomes pm…. Tories en mass either resign the whip or cross the floor…. Labour calls a vote of no confidence… general election!!!
2) Johnson wins, becomes pm… some tories resign whip or cross floor, not quite enough for VoNC because of backing of the DUP… limps along for a bit until parliament standards report is due…. Just before release is due he dissolves parliament so it can’t come out! He calls a general election! "
I saw someone claim that the Tories are trying to defang the standards committee.
Per Paterson scandal, they all want to be held to the same standards as you and I. Hahahahaha |
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"Akshata Murty had non-dom status because she met the criteria. She didn't 'falsely claim' it."
"She didn’t but it was “brushed under the carpet” because her husband was in charge of policy."
In what way did she not qualify?
"A US green card is a permanent residence permit. It gives the holder the right to live in the US. It isn't citizenship, it doesn't require you to relinquish your nationality, and it doesn't need you to swear allegiance to the US. Nor did he break any British or US law by holding one."
"There are tax responsibilities of holding a Green Card and an expectation of being a citizen in future."
There are tax responsibilities, which he met in full. The green card is indeed the first step to becoming a citizen, but it's not expected that all green card holders will become citizens. The card has to be renewed every 10 years, which seems an odd requirement if you expect all green card holders to go on to become citizens after their 5 year waiting period. |
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"The polls before he left suggested otherwise, so, How many people have you ‘discussed’ this with? "
Not that many, less than a dozen, so I'm quite prepared to be proved wrong.
But it's clear that Boris still enjoys a non-trivial level of support, and the polls are known to under-count those that have 'embarrasing' views.
It'll be interesting to see what happens over the next few days. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"The polls before he left suggested otherwise, so, How many people have you ‘discussed’ this with?
Not that many, less than a dozen, so I'm quite prepared to be proved wrong.
But it's clear that Boris still enjoys a non-trivial level of support, and the polls are known to under-count those that have 'embarrasing' views.
It'll be interesting to see what happens over the next few days."
Indeed, the Tories are in a pickle, great to watch |
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By *irldnCouple
over a year ago
Brighton |
"Akshata Murty had non-dom status because she met the criteria. She didn't 'falsely claim' it.
She didn’t but it was “brushed under the carpet” because her husband was in charge of policy.
In what way did she not qualify?
A US green card is a permanent residence permit. It gives the holder the right to live in the US. It isn't citizenship, it doesn't require you to relinquish your nationality, and it doesn't need you to swear allegiance to the US. Nor did he break any British or US law by holding one.
There are tax responsibilities of holding a Green Card and an expectation of being a citizen in future.
There are tax responsibilities, which he met in full. The green card is indeed the first step to becoming a citizen, but it's not expected that all green card holders will become citizens. The card has to be renewed every 10 years, which seems an odd requirement if you expect all green card holders to go on to become citizens after their 5 year waiting period."
2nd point 1st - are you saying he paid double tax (ie tax on all worldwide earnings to the US IRS as well as full tax to HMRC?) I seem to recall a refusal to publish tax returns. Could be wrong but doesn't square with his wife’s actions.
1st point 2nd - she tried to claim her Indian Citizenship provided non-dom status but that isn’t sufficient under the rules. However, there is an annual payment that can be paid of £60k that will stop the HMRC from properly investigating and represents a total bargain on millions of income. There was zero chance of her being truly non-dom as her primary residence is in the UK with her husband and kids. The kids are at school in UK. She runs her businesses from the UK. Oh and she doesn’t pay tax in India either because her Infosys shareholding is registered in Mauritius which is a tax haven! Legal yes perhaps but moral no not at all. AND married to the man responsible for UK tax legislation! |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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After giving it some thought the only stable pm was May only thing she failed on really was getting brexit over the line she seemed quite sensible for the most part so if anyone id say her
But in truth this is like asking me to fuck a bee hive |
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"I’ll give you 2 different scenarios….
1) Johnson wins , becomes pm…. Tories en mass either resign the whip or cross the floor…. Labour calls a vote of no confidence… general election!!!
2) Johnson wins, becomes pm… some tories resign whip or cross floor, not quite enough for VoNC because of backing of the DUP… limps along for a bit until parliament standards report is due…. Just before release is due he dissolves parliament so it can’t come out! He calls a general election! "
If Boris gets in then one of these two things will happen and then it gets interesting.
I do think the media are underestimating the _implicit_ level of support for Boris that others have called out on the thread. I have spoken to quite a few people all around the country who say something like “I actually quite like Boris but obviously he had to go” where the “obviously” was rushed as if they had to hide something that polite society disapproves of but they really believe.
I think people underestimate him at their peril. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"I’ll give you 2 different scenarios….
1) Johnson wins , becomes pm…. Tories en mass either resign the whip or cross the floor…. Labour calls a vote of no confidence… general election!!!
2) Johnson wins, becomes pm… some tories resign whip or cross floor, not quite enough for VoNC because of backing of the DUP… limps along for a bit until parliament standards report is due…. Just before release is due he dissolves parliament so it can’t come out! He calls a general election!
If Boris gets in then one of these two things will happen and then it gets interesting.
I do think the media are underestimating the _implicit_ level of support for Boris that others have called out on the thread. I have spoken to quite a few people all around the country who say something like “I actually quite like Boris but obviously he had to go” where the “obviously” was rushed as if they had to hide something that polite society disapproves of but they really believe.
I think people underestimate him at their peril."
How many people have you ‘spoken to around the country’ would you say that your findings are more accurate than the polls? |
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"I’ll give you 2 different scenarios….
1) Johnson wins , becomes pm…. Tories en mass either resign the whip or cross the floor…. Labour calls a vote of no confidence… general election!!!
2) Johnson wins, becomes pm… some tories resign whip or cross floor, not quite enough for VoNC because of backing of the DUP… limps along for a bit until parliament standards report is due…. Just before release is due he dissolves parliament so it can’t come out! He calls a general election!
If Boris gets in then one of these two things will happen and then it gets interesting.
I do think the media are underestimating the _implicit_ level of support for Boris that others have called out on the thread. I have spoken to quite a few people all around the country who say something like “I actually quite like Boris but obviously he had to go” where the “obviously” was rushed as if they had to hide something that polite society disapproves of but they really believe.
I think people underestimate him at their peril.
How many people have you ‘spoken to around the country’ would you say that your findings are more accurate than the polls? "
7,526,239 at the last count
Clearly it is not scientific but just stating that I think the polls are missing something. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
"I’ll give you 2 different scenarios….
1) Johnson wins , becomes pm…. Tories en mass either resign the whip or cross the floor…. Labour calls a vote of no confidence… general election!!!
2) Johnson wins, becomes pm… some tories resign whip or cross floor, not quite enough for VoNC because of backing of the DUP… limps along for a bit until parliament standards report is due…. Just before release is due he dissolves parliament so it can’t come out! He calls a general election!
If Boris gets in then one of these two things will happen and then it gets interesting.
I do think the media are underestimating the _implicit_ level of support for Boris that others have called out on the thread. I have spoken to quite a few people all around the country who say something like “I actually quite like Boris but obviously he had to go” where the “obviously” was rushed as if they had to hide something that polite society disapproves of but they really believe.
I think people underestimate him at their peril.
How many people have you ‘spoken to around the country’ would you say that your findings are more accurate than the polls? "
the polls may show the "polite" answer... The risk is people so something different in the booth than they do in public (and polling can feel "public)
|
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
"I’ll give you 2 different scenarios….
1) Johnson wins , becomes pm…. Tories en mass either resign the whip or cross the floor…. Labour calls a vote of no confidence… general election!!!
2) Johnson wins, becomes pm… some tories resign whip or cross floor, not quite enough for VoNC because of backing of the DUP… limps along for a bit until parliament standards report is due…. Just before release is due he dissolves parliament so it can’t come out! He calls a general election!
If Boris gets in then one of these two things will happen and then it gets interesting.
I do think the media are underestimating the _implicit_ level of support for Boris that others have called out on the thread. I have spoken to quite a few people all around the country who say something like “I actually quite like Boris but obviously he had to go” where the “obviously” was rushed as if they had to hide something that polite society disapproves of but they really believe.
I think people underestimate him at their peril.
How many people have you ‘spoken to around the country’ would you say that your findings are more accurate than the polls?
7,526,239 at the last count
Clearly it is not scientific but just stating that I think the polls are missing something."
So your limited ‘poll’ is correct but the real polls are incorrect? The pills are showing that Sunak is 11% more popular that Boris and Mourdant is 2 % |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
"I’ll give you 2 different scenarios….
1) Johnson wins , becomes pm…. Tories en mass either resign the whip or cross the floor…. Labour calls a vote of no confidence… general election!!!
2) Johnson wins, becomes pm… some tories resign whip or cross floor, not quite enough for VoNC because of backing of the DUP… limps along for a bit until parliament standards report is due…. Just before release is due he dissolves parliament so it can’t come out! He calls a general election!
If Boris gets in then one of these two things will happen and then it gets interesting.
I do think the media are underestimating the _implicit_ level of support for Boris that others have called out on the thread. I have spoken to quite a few people all around the country who say something like “I actually quite like Boris but obviously he had to go” where the “obviously” was rushed as if they had to hide something that polite society disapproves of but they really believe.
I think people underestimate him at their peril.
How many people have you ‘spoken to around the country’ would you say that your findings are more accurate than the polls? the polls may show the "polite" answer... The risk is people so something different in the booth than they do in public (and polling can feel "public)
"
True, the polls have never been 100% accurate, people may have forgotten why Boris was removed , they will soon be reminded when or if he returns |
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"I’ll give you 2 different scenarios….
1) Johnson wins , becomes pm…. Tories en mass either resign the whip or cross the floor…. Labour calls a vote of no confidence… general election!!!
2) Johnson wins, becomes pm… some tories resign whip or cross floor, not quite enough for VoNC because of backing of the DUP… limps along for a bit until parliament standards report is due…. Just before release is due he dissolves parliament so it can’t come out! He calls a general election!
If Boris gets in then one of these two things will happen and then it gets interesting.
I do think the media are underestimating the _implicit_ level of support for Boris that others have called out on the thread. I have spoken to quite a few people all around the country who say something like “I actually quite like Boris but obviously he had to go” where the “obviously” was rushed as if they had to hide something that polite society disapproves of but they really believe.
I think people underestimate him at their peril.
How many people have you ‘spoken to around the country’ would you say that your findings are more accurate than the polls? the polls may show the "polite" answer... The risk is people so something different in the booth than they do in public (and polling can feel "public)
"
I heard on a podcast yesterday that we should probably factor in 20% shy Tory |
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"2nd point 1st - are you saying he paid double tax (ie tax on all worldwide earnings to the US IRS as well as full tax to HMRC?)"
He would have been classed as a "non-resident alien" by the US. As a green card holder he would have had to file a tax return, and pay tax on any 'US-sourced' income. The UK has a double taxation agreement with the US, so he wouldn't have been liable for UK taxes on his US-sourced income.
"1st point 2nd - she tried to claim her Indian Citizenship provided non-dom status but that isn’t sufficient under the rules. However, there is an annual payment that can be paid of £60k that will stop the HMRC from properly investigating and represents a total bargain on millions of income."
Her Indian citizenship is irrelevant, as long as she maintains a home outside of the UK, which she does. The £60,000 payment is for those that have been UK-resident for at least 12 of the past 14 years. You can't really call it a 'pay-off to stop HMRC investigating' if she's been filing tax returns for the past 12 years. |
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"Obviously, I don't think that any of this is at all likely, but I'm not convinced that the public are 100% against him. Well, I'm not convinced that the public are even 50% against him."
Johnson left office, haemorrhaging seats in byelections, with an approval rating of -51, the Tories eleven points behind Labour because the public could already see him for what he is. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
"Obviously, I don't think that any of this is at all likely, but I'm not convinced that the public are 100% against him. Well, I'm not convinced that the public are even 50% against him.
Johnson left office, haemorrhaging seats in byelections, with an approval rating of -51, the Tories eleven points behind Labour because the public could already see him for what he is. "
And things are now considerably worse because of the Tories, |
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"I’ll give you 2 different scenarios….
1) Johnson wins , becomes pm…. Tories en mass either resign the whip or cross the floor…. Labour calls a vote of no confidence… general election!!!
2) Johnson wins, becomes pm… some tories resign whip or cross floor, not quite enough for VoNC because of backing of the DUP… limps along for a bit until parliament standards report is due…. Just before release is due he dissolves parliament so it can’t come out! He calls a general election!
If Boris gets in then one of these two things will happen and then it gets interesting.
I do think the media are underestimating the _implicit_ level of support for Boris that others have called out on the thread. I have spoken to quite a few people all around the country who say something like “I actually quite like Boris but obviously he had to go” where the “obviously” was rushed as if they had to hide something that polite society disapproves of but they really believe.
I think people underestimate him at their peril.
How many people have you ‘spoken to around the country’ would you say that your findings are more accurate than the polls?
7,526,239 at the last count
Clearly it is not scientific but just stating that I think the polls are missing something.
So your limited ‘poll’ is correct but the real polls are incorrect? The pills are showing that Sunak is 11% more popular that Boris and Mourdant is 2 %"
You are reading more into my statement than I wrote. As other people have suggested there is a “shy” Tory factor in the polls. I am _not_ suggesting that the Tories will win because clearly there is a huge swing to Labour. What I am saying is that what I have heard people say doesn’t quite chime with what the polls are telling me. Am I wrong? Very possibly but I look at what happened with Trump getting elected and Brexit getting over the line and I wonder how accurate the polls were then…. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
"I’ll give you 2 different scenarios….
1) Johnson wins , becomes pm…. Tories en mass either resign the whip or cross the floor…. Labour calls a vote of no confidence… general election!!!
2) Johnson wins, becomes pm… some tories resign whip or cross floor, not quite enough for VoNC because of backing of the DUP… limps along for a bit until parliament standards report is due…. Just before release is due he dissolves parliament so it can’t come out! He calls a general election!
If Boris gets in then one of these two things will happen and then it gets interesting.
I do think the media are underestimating the _implicit_ level of support for Boris that others have called out on the thread. I have spoken to quite a few people all around the country who say something like “I actually quite like Boris but obviously he had to go” where the “obviously” was rushed as if they had to hide something that polite society disapproves of but they really believe.
I think people underestimate him at their peril.
How many people have you ‘spoken to around the country’ would you say that your findings are more accurate than the polls?
7,526,239 at the last count
Clearly it is not scientific but just stating that I think the polls are missing something.
So your limited ‘poll’ is correct but the real polls are incorrect? The pills are showing that Sunak is 11% more popular that Boris and Mourdant is 2 %
You are reading more into my statement than I wrote. As other people have suggested there is a “shy” Tory factor in the polls. I am _not_ suggesting that the Tories will win because clearly there is a huge swing to Labour. What I am saying is that what I have heard people say doesn’t quite chime with what the polls are telling me. Am I wrong? Very possibly but I look at what happened with Trump getting elected and Brexit getting over the line and I wonder how accurate the polls were then…."
True, the polls were wrong then, but only slightly, my question to the Boris supporters and those MPs who have flipped from wanting him removed to now backing him, what has changed? And how will Boris improve the current situation |
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"I’ll give you 2 different scenarios….
1) Johnson wins , becomes pm…. Tories en mass either resign the whip or cross the floor…. Labour calls a vote of no confidence… general election!!!
2) Johnson wins, becomes pm… some tories resign whip or cross floor, not quite enough for VoNC because of backing of the DUP… limps along for a bit until parliament standards report is due…. Just before release is due he dissolves parliament so it can’t come out! He calls a general election!
If Boris gets in then one of these two things will happen and then it gets interesting.
I do think the media are underestimating the _implicit_ level of support for Boris that others have called out on the thread. I have spoken to quite a few people all around the country who say something like “I actually quite like Boris but obviously he had to go” where the “obviously” was rushed as if they had to hide something that polite society disapproves of but they really believe.
I think people underestimate him at their peril.
How many people have you ‘spoken to around the country’ would you say that your findings are more accurate than the polls?
7,526,239 at the last count
Clearly it is not scientific but just stating that I think the polls are missing something.
So your limited ‘poll’ is correct but the real polls are incorrect? The pills are showing that Sunak is 11% more popular that Boris and Mourdant is 2 %
You are reading more into my statement than I wrote. As other people have suggested there is a “shy” Tory factor in the polls. I am _not_ suggesting that the Tories will win because clearly there is a huge swing to Labour. What I am saying is that what I have heard people say doesn’t quite chime with what the polls are telling me. Am I wrong? Very possibly but I look at what happened with Trump getting elected and Brexit getting over the line and I wonder how accurate the polls were then….
True, the polls were wrong then, but only slightly, my question to the Boris supporters and those MPs who have flipped from wanting him removed to now backing him, what has changed? And how will Boris improve the current situation "
This is where I would like a shrug emoji on the site. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
|
"I’ll give you 2 different scenarios….
1) Johnson wins , becomes pm…. Tories en mass either resign the whip or cross the floor…. Labour calls a vote of no confidence… general election!!!
2) Johnson wins, becomes pm… some tories resign whip or cross floor, not quite enough for VoNC because of backing of the DUP… limps along for a bit until parliament standards report is due…. Just before release is due he dissolves parliament so it can’t come out! He calls a general election!
If Boris gets in then one of these two things will happen and then it gets interesting.
I do think the media are underestimating the _implicit_ level of support for Boris that others have called out on the thread. I have spoken to quite a few people all around the country who say something like “I actually quite like Boris but obviously he had to go” where the “obviously” was rushed as if they had to hide something that polite society disapproves of but they really believe.
I think people underestimate him at their peril.
How many people have you ‘spoken to around the country’ would you say that your findings are more accurate than the polls?
7,526,239 at the last count
Clearly it is not scientific but just stating that I think the polls are missing something.
So your limited ‘poll’ is correct but the real polls are incorrect? The pills are showing that Sunak is 11% more popular that Boris and Mourdant is 2 %
You are reading more into my statement than I wrote. As other people have suggested there is a “shy” Tory factor in the polls. I am _not_ suggesting that the Tories will win because clearly there is a huge swing to Labour. What I am saying is that what I have heard people say doesn’t quite chime with what the polls are telling me. Am I wrong? Very possibly but I look at what happened with Trump getting elected and Brexit getting over the line and I wonder how accurate the polls were then….
True, the polls were wrong then, but only slightly, my question to the Boris supporters and those MPs who have flipped from wanting him removed to now backing him, what has changed? And how will Boris improve the current situation
This is where I would like a shrug emoji on the site."
There is no answer, each of these MPs and ministers wrote a resignation letter for all to see, it really is pathetic, but if that what the tories want then I am looking forward to watching the carnage |
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By *irldnCouple
over a year ago
Brighton |
"2nd point 1st - are you saying he paid double tax (ie tax on all worldwide earnings to the US IRS as well as full tax to HMRC?)
He would have been classed as a "non-resident alien" by the US. As a green card holder he would have had to file a tax return, and pay tax on any 'US-sourced' income. The UK has a double taxation agreement with the US, so he wouldn't have been liable for UK taxes on his US-sourced income.
1st point 2nd - she tried to claim her Indian Citizenship provided non-dom status but that isn’t sufficient under the rules. However, there is an annual payment that can be paid of £60k that will stop the HMRC from properly investigating and represents a total bargain on millions of income.
Her Indian citizenship is irrelevant, as long as she maintains a home outside of the UK, which she does. The £60,000 payment is for those that have been UK-resident for at least 12 of the past 14 years. You can't really call it a 'pay-off to stop HMRC investigating' if she's been filing tax returns for the past 12 years."
Didn’t realise you had replied. Mrs Sunak paid £30k not £60k. I got that wrong. As I said legal but not moral, especially when married to the man who sets UK tax policy. Maintaining a home outside the UK is not the point, it is where someone is in reality living and she clearly made her life in the UK. And I disagree, the £30k or £60k annual fee most certainly is hush money. HMRC have inadequate resources to investigate everyone (especially the wife of their de-facto boss). So within the rules but clearly very highly beneficial to Mrs Sunak who was estimated to have avoided about £20m in tax.
And clearly her advisors thought it best to diffuse the situation (and prevent further scrutiny or a potential investigation) as she changed her domicile status a few days after the news broke. Why do that if there is nothing to hide or you have done nothing wrong? |
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By *eroy1000Man
over a year ago
milton keynes |
"2nd point 1st - are you saying he paid double tax (ie tax on all worldwide earnings to the US IRS as well as full tax to HMRC?)
He would have been classed as a "non-resident alien" by the US. As a green card holder he would have had to file a tax return, and pay tax on any 'US-sourced' income. The UK has a double taxation agreement with the US, so he wouldn't have been liable for UK taxes on his US-sourced income.
1st point 2nd - she tried to claim her Indian Citizenship provided non-dom status but that isn’t sufficient under the rules. However, there is an annual payment that can be paid of £60k that will stop the HMRC from properly investigating and represents a total bargain on millions of income.
Her Indian citizenship is irrelevant, as long as she maintains a home outside of the UK, which she does. The £60,000 payment is for those that have been UK-resident for at least 12 of the past 14 years. You can't really call it a 'pay-off to stop HMRC investigating' if she's been filing tax returns for the past 12 years.
Didn’t realise you had replied. Mrs Sunak paid £30k not £60k. I got that wrong. As I said legal but not moral, especially when married to the man who sets UK tax policy. Maintaining a home outside the UK is not the point, it is where someone is in reality living and she clearly made her life in the UK. And I disagree, the £30k or £60k annual fee most certainly is hush money. HMRC have inadequate resources to investigate everyone (especially the wife of their de-facto boss). So within the rules but clearly very highly beneficial to Mrs Sunak who was estimated to have avoided about £20m in tax.
And clearly her advisors thought it best to diffuse the situation (and prevent further scrutiny or a potential investigation) as she changed her domicile status a few days after the news broke. Why do that if there is nothing to hide or you have done nothing wrong?"
If any other MP gets to challenge Rishi for leadership, I expect these tax affairs to be used a lot against him. |
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By *abioMan
over a year ago
Newcastle and Gateshead |
"If any other MP gets to challenge Rishi for leadership, I expect these tax affairs to be used a lot against him."
In a long contest I would have agreed… some shadowy people in other persons camp would bring it up… try to plant a story in the mail or sun ect.
But this contest is going to be 4 days long in total… and only 36 hrs before voting starts
I thought originally it would be 3 … now I think it could possibly be just sunak vs Johnson… |
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By *eroy1000Man
over a year ago
milton keynes |
"If any other MP gets to challenge Rishi for leadership, I expect these tax affairs to be used a lot against him.
In a long contest I would have agreed… some shadowy people in other persons camp would bring it up… try to plant a story in the mail or sun ect.
But this contest is going to be 4 days long in total… and only 36 hrs before voting starts
I thought originally it would be 3 … now I think it could possibly be just sunak vs Johnson… "
Yes your right, there is not enough time this time around to effectively use his tax issues against him though it's likely to get a mention. Also what might get a mention is his fine for party gate, which is something he has in common with Boris. I'm wondering if Boris does win it then enough MP's will defect to enable Labour to somehow force a GE. Not sure if that's possible but I can hope |
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By *abioMan
over a year ago
Newcastle and Gateshead |
"If any other MP gets to challenge Rishi for leadership, I expect these tax affairs to be used a lot against him.
In a long contest I would have agreed… some shadowy people in other persons camp would bring it up… try to plant a story in the mail or sun ect.
But this contest is going to be 4 days long in total… and only 36 hrs before voting starts
I thought originally it would be 3 … now I think it could possibly be just sunak vs Johnson…
Yes your right, there is not enough time this time around to effectively use his tax issues against him though it's likely to get a mention. Also what might get a mention is his fine for party gate, which is something he has in common with Boris. I'm wondering if Boris does win it then enough MP's will defect to enable Labour to somehow force a GE. Not sure if that's possible but I can hope"
Technically the majority is 78… so you need 40 to “change sides”… but I think the DUP would side with the Tories.. so you may need closer to 50!
I could see a couple of dozen resigning the whip.. 50 might be a stretch |
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