FabSwingers.com > Forums > Politics > UK issued warning over 'significant risk' of gas shortages this winter.
UK issued warning over 'significant risk' of gas shortages this winter.
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"I've only been saying this over the Sumner to comments of being a Doomsday teller. It has been obvious and the writing is on the wall. Prepare for power cuts.. The energy regulator has warned the UK that it is facing a 'significant risk' of gas shortages this winter. The energy regulator has warned the UK is facing a "significant risk" of gas shortages this winter. It could mean that some customers, starting with the largest industrial consumers, will be asked to stop using gas for a temporary period. It comes as Europe faces "unprecedented risks" to its natural gas supplies this winter after Russia cut off most pipeline shipments, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has said. The Paris-based body said Europe could end up competing with Asia for already scarce and expensive liquid gas that is transported by ship. The IEA said in its quarterly gas report that European Union countries would need to reduce use by 13% over the winter in case of a complete Russian cut-off amid the war in Ukraine. The report was released on Monday https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/newsmanchester/uk-issued-warning-over-significant-risk-of-gas-shortages-this-winter/ar-AA12x4Ps" That needs to come with some context because it’s a little more complicated It’s not a shortage of gas as such….that is the bit that needs to be highlighted! the problem is the process The issue is that around 40% of uk electricity comes from gas fired power stations… what happens is that those power stations sell the electricity to the grid… that price that is sold at 3-4 months and if it can’t be sold at the agreed price then it’s the power station operators that eat a huge fine! Because of the volatile nature of the market at the moment what may happen is if gas suppliers don’t want to take the risk of the huge fines if they can’t meet the agreed price.. the option is the get out of cancelling the contracts…. And it’s that that would then leave a huge hole is the potential amount of electricity available | |||
"I've only been saying this over the Sumner to comments of being a Doomsday teller. It has been obvious and the writing is on the wall. Prepare for power cuts.. The energy regulator has warned the UK that it is facing a 'significant risk' of gas shortages this winter. The energy regulator has warned the UK is facing a "significant risk" of gas shortages this winter. It could mean that some customers, starting with the largest industrial consumers, will be asked to stop using gas for a temporary period. It comes as Europe faces "unprecedented risks" to its natural gas supplies this winter after Russia cut off most pipeline shipments, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has said. The Paris-based body said Europe could end up competing with Asia for already scarce and expensive liquid gas that is transported by ship. The IEA said in its quarterly gas report that European Union countries would need to reduce use by 13% over the winter in case of a complete Russian cut-off amid the war in Ukraine. The report was released on Monday https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/newsmanchester/uk-issued-warning-over-significant-risk-of-gas-shortages-this-winter/ar-AA12x4Ps" Nice reliable source of information | |||
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"MrFunBoy you clearly know your stuff (and scare the shit out of us all). Re gas storage...I thought the UK was exporting records quantities of North Sea gas to EU so that they could store it for us (as Tories closed down our storage) with the agreement they would send back what we needed?" Yes, but will they when their own citizens are freezing? I thought Rough only held about 2 weeks gas even when it was in operation. | |||
"MrFunBoy you clearly know your stuff (and scare the shit out of us all). Re gas storage...I thought the UK was exporting records quantities of North Sea gas to EU so that they could store it for us (as Tories closed down our storage) with the agreement they would send back what we needed? Yes, but will they when their own citizens are freezing? I thought Rough only held about 2 weeks gas even when it was in operation." I believe there is a contractual (legal) arrangement? Re: Rough. Surely if back online that two weeks just keeps getting replenished from North Sea gas? Or is the two weeks how ling it takes to run down even while being replenished? | |||
"I believe there is a contractual (legal) arrangement? " And when the choice is to allow your own citizens to freeze or break a contractual arrangement? There may be "technical problems" coming up which prevent gas being returned. "Re: Rough. Surely if back online that two weeks just keeps getting replenished from North Sea gas? Or is the two weeks how ling it takes to run down even while being replenished?" Lots of contradictory information available but a quick analysis indicates 9 days if not replenished. So it is good for peak lopping but no good for a sustained supply problem. | |||
"MrFunBoy you clearly know your stuff (and scare the shit out of us all). Re gas storage...I thought the UK was exporting records quantities of North Sea gas to EU so that they could store it for us (as Tories closed down our storage) with the agreement they would send back what we needed? Yes, but will they when their own citizens are freezing? I thought Rough only held about 2 weeks gas even when it was in operation. I believe there is a contractual (legal) arrangement? Re: Rough. Surely if back online that two weeks just keeps getting replenished from North Sea gas? Or is the two weeks how ling it takes to run down even while being replenished?" I follow the industry closely, we are living hand to mouth in respect of supply, mainly because we have no storage. We have a reliance on the EU to take surplus (mainly when an LNG boat arrives) as it us unloaded and for the period it is docked, we consume the couple of days while the bulk gets transferred to the EU for resale or storage to bring back once the boat has left and our demand is higher the the North Sea and Norway can provide. This arrangement is relied on more since numpty Kami-Kwasi allowed Centrica to close Rough down claiming the UK love if gas would be ended by 2030. Since then, we pump LNG surplus to German storage and pull back. If you've followed the news of the EUs desperation to cut consumption over the summer, France fining shops for running Air Conditioning with doors open, city monument lights being turned off and much more. Germany actually paying some if its businesses to shut down gas consuming processes in or to reduce demand to 85%, to allow 15% to be set aside for winter. The UK was asked to support the EU to reduce demand to allow storage to be filled that we'll need in Winter. However, our government refused to even ask the UK public and businesses to cut back and we've carried on as normal burning our precious life saving fuel we'll need in a few months. We done nothing to support Winter storage. To add to the storm, this Sumner has not been breezy to free us gas consumption, wind production for the last two years has been for prolonged periods, less than 15%, except for a few days. I regularly watch UK Energy Mix and only seen 10 days where wind has been over 40%. Night before last it was 65%, Queens funeral weekend 55% but almost every other day, less than 15%. If the wind is not blowing, up to 77% electricity is from gas and this has been most of the summer. Media and government claim 40% electricity is gas generated, which is correct - but here is the Crux. The 40% is the annual average. So when wind is low, gas consumption is very high, as I said, almost reaching 80%. Now, in Winter we rely on additional electricity from Norway and France as demand for industry cooking, heating lighting, heat pumps, EV charging etc is high. This electricity is NOT coming to us this year, although we currently exporting a lot of electricity back to Norway on the understanding we can help reduce their hydro demand for both the UK and them to use over winter - it may work but if a cold snap occurs, Norway might not give it back. The perfect storm, very cold, calm wind High Pressure with overcast skies as this would knick down Wind and Solar putting extreme reliance on gas generation at the same time gas boilers are running. The beast from the East a few years ago, brought us within 6 hours of complete system failure and that was at a time Norway and France were giving us electricity. We have not supported reduced consumption with the EU, so while France and Germany's populations are freezing, will their populations sit back and allow us to import what they've worked so hard to conserve? No, they'll tell us where to get off. When you know what I know, to try and vand warn others to prepare, they throw smart remarks, nasty comments and uninformed opposition to what has been said. At that point, only "I told you so" can be the response. First weeknin January is one problem, businesses have been shut down and buildings cold, dark gloomy days and heating and machinery being brought back online. Unless government arrange a staggered return, the surge for 4 days is a trigger point. EV charger legislation was changed July 1st to stop cars immediately charging between 5pm and 8pm unless owner overrides the timer. Although I didn't have an EV at the time, I fitted the charger two months earlier to avoid this as the car predominantly charges from batteries in the garage. The reason is concern of overloading the Grid with cars, cookers, showers and heating. So cars get deleted by default. We are now being trickle fed information, the government claim there is nothing to worry about. So you're driving your car on a motorway and the fuel light comes on. Do you continue driving, saying "in 2022, cars don't run out of fuel" or do you find fuel to fill up asap? If, at 77% demand the fuel is running low, UK gas generation will be shut down with a few minutes warning to stop them being damaged putting them out of service for weeks. As for Rough, there is little surplus to put in it. We've also another issue this week. Now that Norway are also supplying Poland with gas, our exclusivity has been drastically reduced as Norwegian gas can now go direct to German storage via Poland and to the highest bidder. This country currently has 4 days storage and that was nearly depleted this summer during the heatwave due to Air Conditioning demand and during the Beast from the East. I am NOT out to scare anyone, preparation is key in that 'should' it happen, it is no surprise like you saw on TV after Arwen last year when people were freezing their bollox off with no electricity. If that had been me in the North East, a £30 transfer switch, a £300 petrol generator and a couple of Jerry cans could have brought the heating, lights and fridge back on. My house is already fitted with transfer switches, one to backfeed Solar battery and if battery is flat, a second to connect a 6kw generator to. Why gas the price of portable Gas heaters gone from £45 to almost everywhere sold out and £129-£179. I bought 55 last night. The great thing with renewables is redundancy is a built in side-effect. I can pretty much last all Winter with careful load management to live without Grid. This weekend a further 3.5kwh Solar installed on extension roof, making 9kwh in total and 45kwh of batteries. We know either the Russians or the Yanks are capable of blowing up gas pipes, what if the Norwegian supply accidentally blew up during Winter, removing 40% of our hand to mouth supply? Goverment should be sending information booklets out like they've done in the past of how to prepare for worst case scenarios. Have a listen: Keeping the lights on https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m001bks6?partner=uk.co.bbc&origin=share-mobile Check this link a couple of times a day, especially in the early hours and evenings. https://grid.iamkate.com/ Look at historic data, you'll see the Coal station input reduced and our gas reliance grow since 2010. | |||
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"MrFunBoy you clearly know your stuff (and scare the shit out of us all). Re gas storage...I thought the UK was exporting records quantities of North Sea gas to EU so that they could store it for us (as Tories closed down our storage) with the agreement they would send back what we needed?" Try not to worry about everything you read on a swingers site 
The sun will rise tomorrow and the day after | |||
" If that had been me in the North East, a £30 transfer switch, a £300 petrol generator and a couple of Jerry cans could have brought the heating, lights and fridge back on. My house is already fitted with transfer switches, one to backfeed Solar battery and if battery is flat, a second to connect a 6kw generator to. " I wondered how you did it as solar inverters (ours anyway) turn off if they don't detect a mains supply in the house. | |||
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"Battery saves over £1500 electricity per year as cooking and house up to 5kwh is from battery and nighttime Import is £ZERO. Plus, I run Air Conditioners and portable heaters at night which significantly reduces gas consumption for heating." However you have more solar than most. We are limited to the 4kw allowed under the feed in tariff rules. We use all that as any excess from running appliances is used to drive the immersion heater in our 300 litre mains pressure hot water tank. On days like today we don't have any spare. Really we'd need 16kw solar to be independent. | |||
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"Battery saves over £1500 electricity per year as cooking and house up to 5kwh is from battery and nighttime Import is £ZERO. Plus, I run Air Conditioners and portable heaters at night which significantly reduces gas consumption for heating. However you have more solar than most. We are limited to the 4kw allowed under the feed in tariff rules. We use all that as any excess from running appliances is used to drive the immersion heater in our 300 litre mains pressure hot water tank. On days like today we don't have any spare. Really we'd need 16kw solar to be independent." Sounds like your making the most of what you have. I take the point on the 4kw, although in a Grid fail situation, you'd shed loading to ensure the batteries remain floating. There is nothing stopping you increasing panel capacity if you have space and just put an G100 Export Limiter to remain at the 4kw agreement. I'll be renting the EV charger out during the day as Surplus Solar is free and 20p Grid for next two years would be worth 45p/kwh. I may as well run up the Grid meter at 19.9p and sell it for twice the price to EV owners. | |||
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"Goverment isn't actually scaring anyone, they are actually telling us not to worry.. They claim we have robust supplies, that rationing or blackouts is not going to happen. Which - is a worry as it the complete opposite to what the rest of the EU and our energy industry is saying. " Yes. The government says not to worry. I'm concerned. | |||
"Goverment isn't actually scaring anyone, they are actually telling us not to worry.. They claim we have robust supplies, that rationing or blackouts is not going to happen. Which - is a worry as it the complete opposite to what the rest of the EU and our energy industry is saying. Yes. The government says not to worry. I'm concerned." If Truss says "no problem", be scared. Be very scared. | |||
"You can also force the inverter to charge from the Grid, ready for the next drop out. How much Electricity are you consuming at night as my priority is battery first (electricity is worth 34p/kwk) and hot water secondary as gas is 10p/kwh. Better to reserve electricity for night than hot water as it's 3x the price on Variable rate." We have a 24/7 base load of about 400 watts. We could shave a bit off that but would struggle to get much below 300 watts. Batteries to run that load during dark winter nights are expensive and wouldn't fully charge off the solar we have. When we move away from here (hopefully to sunnier climes) our next house wil be designed to be as independent as possible. This house is extremely efficient for its' age but we are getting to the limit of what is economically viable to retro-fit. | |||
"Better to reserve electricity for night than hot water as it's 3x the price on Variable rate. We have a 24/7 base load of about 400 watts. We could shave a bit off that but would struggle to get much below 300 watts. Batteries to run that load during dark winter nights are expensive and wouldn't fully charge off the solar we have. When we move away from here (hopefully to sunnier climes) our next house wil be designed to be as independent as possible. This house is extremely efficient for its' age but we are getting to the limit of what is economically viable to retro-fit." Your base is same as here, you're right to heat Hot Water than export for peanuts although, I am guessing your FIT not SEG. Cost of inverter and batteries are considerable and needs to be calculated against staying with hot water than battery and new inverter. The reason for 45kwh is mainly to spread charge/discharge loading across 3 units than one running at 5kw in and out and hopefully 25-30yrs before they are worn out and plenty in case of power outage. I'd love to start from a blank canvas, happy to share advice if you need when time comes as I give 'counselling' to new Solar owners as to getting best value for ROI. Make sure you include Air Conditioning as they save me a fortune for heating and 4x the output for the energy input. The $ shift is painful at the moment but at £2650 for 6.5kwh and 14kwh for £3650, quite a few have been taken, a lot cheaper than other brands though. Was in Wigan earlier picking up a van load of gas heaters, back again tomorrow for the next batch. | |||
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"Report from SKY News: https://youtu.be/0uCmVk2l3JY So, government will prioritise Gas supply to domestic properties. That's great, but how the hell do you run a Gas Boiler with no electricity to power it? I suppose if you have an old Gas fire in your mantle place, you'd be able to use that as long as no power supply needed." Of course those of us with common sense would have said the government will prioritize energy (electric and gas) to domestic customers but it doesn't have the same sensational headline to try to wind people up. | |||
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"And many of us have nice modern 4kw convector gas fires which don't need electric just in case the scaremongers are correct lol We're lucky enough to be able to clear off to sunny climes "I've got a big pile of blankets  | |||
"And many of us have nice modern 4kw convector gas fires which don't need electric just in case the scaremongers are correct lol We're lucky enough to be able to clear off to sunny climes
I've got a big pile of blankets "Don't forget shared body heat is best  | |||
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"@Sexy_Horny Curious as to how many kwh on average you divert to Hot Water? Do you stop at a set temp around 60'c or load it higher to dilute with cold via TMV to give reserve for cloudy days? Which Diverter are you using? Do you pre-heat with Solar then boost with Grid or does it provide enough? Feel free to drop me a message if prefer, just curious as not yet had full summer of Solar Hot water. With subsidising the heating with Surplus, priority wasn't Hot Water at 4p/kwh. " The gas boiler is set at just under 55 degrees, with the temperature sensor part way up the tank. We use a "Solar i-Buddy" which senses grid feed-in and diverts all surplus above 100w into the hot water unless the hot water tank is hot. This uses the immersion heater and sensor at the bottom of the tank, set to 65 degrees. Water at the top of the tank therefore gets slightly hotter in Summer. The tank is a Worcester Bosch Greenstore so is reasonably well insulated. We have the hot water set to come on using the boiler late afternoon, but it only fires if the tank is at less than 55 degrees. All the showers etc. have mixer taps. The dishwasher is plumbed into the hot water not cold. Haven't added up the amount going to the hot water but our gas consumption between May and September is between 5 and 7 m3 a month for heating, hot water and the hob. Most days during that time the boiler doesn't fire at all in a day. Note that only surplus goes to hot water. Usually all our daytime electric is free in that period as well, including washing machine and tumble dryer. | |||
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"Had to laugh at Radio4 tonight. The 'expert' claiming Gas supply to domestic houses will be maintained at all costs, but.. Electricity will be either rationed or supply completely failed. So, plenty gas in the pipe at home, but no electricity to power up and run the boiler. How does that work? " Well by law domestic consumers take priority over business customers … so I assume that is what the expert meant | |||
" Is government telling us to cut back now to preserve stocks? Not like we've anywhere to store it anyway." I think planning is against their religion or something. It'll be fine. Personal choice When it all goes tits up blame people who didn't know any better because the government didn't tell them. Or Labour. | |||
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"They realise they can't maintain the delusion for long, hey?" Politics Hub brings you the latest political news, insight and analysis from the Sky News team in Westminster. Liz Truss is said to have blocked a public information campaign on how to save energy amid warnings of blackouts this winter. You were saying? 'Government must act' - Tory MP calls for energy saving campaign A Conservative MP has called for the government to bring in an energy-saving campaign. It comes after reports Prime Minister Liz Truss blocked such a campaign from being started by the government - despite Energy Secretary Jacob Rees-Mogg signing it off. Guy Opperman tweeted: "Fully behind an energy saving campaign. The energy war of Putin means this is a worldwide problem. "Reduction in energy helps constituents save money, and saves the taxpayer money, as public sector should lead the way. "Reduce usage, while we address supply. "Government must act." He highlighted how other countries in Europe are introducing measures, such as turning down heating in public buildings and turning off hot water in public buildings. He added: "This is not nanny state. It is preserving supply, saving money for everyone, and encouraging localism. "The example of Germany, which is in a massive energy crisis way way worse than UK, is worth following." https://news.sky.com/story/we-plan-for-all-eventualities-minister-fails-to-rule-out-energy-rationing-this-winter-12714178 | |||
"They realise they can't maintain the delusion for long, hey? Politics Hub brings you the latest political news, insight and analysis from the Sky News team in Westminster. Liz Truss is said to have blocked a public information campaign on how to save energy amid warnings of blackouts this winter. You were saying? 'Government must act' - Tory MP calls for energy saving campaign A Conservative MP has called for the government to bring in an energy-saving campaign. It comes after reports Prime Minister Liz Truss blocked such a campaign from being started by the government - despite Energy Secretary Jacob Rees-Mogg signing it off. Guy Opperman tweeted: "Fully behind an energy saving campaign. The energy war of Putin means this is a worldwide problem. "Reduction in energy helps constituents save money, and saves the taxpayer money, as public sector should lead the way. "Reduce usage, while we address supply. "Government must act." He highlighted how other countries in Europe are introducing measures, such as turning down heating in public buildings and turning off hot water in public buildings. He added: "This is not nanny state. It is preserving supply, saving money for everyone, and encouraging localism. "The example of Germany, which is in a massive energy crisis way way worse than UK, is worth following." https://news.sky.com/story/we-plan-for-all-eventualities-minister-fails-to-rule-out-energy-rationing-this-winter-12714178" Government seems to be following Boris's Covid playbook. Do nothing, scream down opposition, watch chaos unfold, blame everyone but themselves. I have blankets. And FFP3s | |||
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"As us older ones will remember.in the past every town had a gas tower that would inflate in the sumer when gas was cheep and go down in the winter when demand was high and it gave every town a six month reserv of gas wich was cheeper to buy in sumer and use in winter" Then some fool decided that we should rely on other countries and look where that’s got us. They sold off the lands where gas monitors were (we had one local to me now a housing estate) Made loads of money out of it have it to shareholders so cannot even open new ones. | |||
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"the regulator did say this very " unlikely " only 3 % of UK gas comes from Russia, that is a nice bit a scaremongering......." Given the way in which the government has performed in recent years on matters of societal disruption and crisis, I think it's prudent to be pessimistic as individuals, and plan accordingly. | |||
"the regulator did say this very " unlikely " only 3 % of UK gas comes from Russia, that is a nice bit a scaremongering....... Given the way in which the government has performed in recent years on matters of societal disruption and crisis, I think it's prudent to be pessimistic as individuals, and plan accordingly." Always be prepared, but its more likely to be planned phased events rather than the days or weeks that some people seem to be hoping for. Some people might need to heat the house or prepare a meal outside of peak times and there's even talk of discounts for doing so. My glass is half full  | |||
"the regulator did say this very " unlikely " only 3 % of UK gas comes from Russia, that is a nice bit a scaremongering....... Given the way in which the government has performed in recent years on matters of societal disruption and crisis, I think it's prudent to be pessimistic as individuals, and plan accordingly. Always be prepared, but its more likely to be planned phased events rather than the days or weeks that some people seem to be hoping for. Some people might need to heat the house or prepare a meal outside of peak times and there's even talk of discounts for doing so. My glass is half full "I'm hoping all will be well, but hope is not a strategy. If it's not at all or hours, I'll be fine with the plans I've made. If it's longer, I'll manage. If people haven't made plans, then they won't manage. | |||
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"As us older ones will remember.in the past every town had a gas tower that would inflate in the sumer when gas was cheep and go down in the winter when demand was high and it gave every town a six month reserv of gas wich was cheeper to buy in sumer and use in winter" Yes, all gone. The ones at Etihad Stadium supplied Manchester's Winter Gas, now just skeletons of rust metal. It's criminal what governments of l flavours have let happen. I fear, many will lose their lives this Winter. I ask a neighbour yesterday if they want a Gas Heater just in case. "No, I think we'll be OK" came the response. That's fine but being cold and having a decent gas heater compared to having nothing, £160 to me, is worth every penny if hyperthermia is setting in. Just a few simple things could make all the difference. Sales of generators is starting to lift, looks like a run on them is on its way. Best get some more in stock.. All this because of government failures on supply and storage. Energy Security- my arse!! | |||
