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Are you sleepwalking into Autumn?
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By *rFunBoy OP Man
over a year ago
Longridge |
While the two muppets continue to fight over Number 10.
Revised Variable Rate energy increases for October is now standing at 77% with still time before the CAP to be locked in.
That's:
50p/kwh - Electricity
15p/kwh - Gas
Standing Charges will also increase.
Last week during conversations, I was suggesting it won't be the announced 65% in the headlines last week, but more likely be 75%. This is now already above 75% and looking like 80-85%, possibly higher.
It is expected to Last at least 18 months before any possibly of prices falling.
We're in the hottest summer on record and the last thing on pur minds is Winter, yet in less than 12 weeks, dark nights start, heating will be going on.
Currently, there is suggestions of a further 6% in January although as time progresses and subject to market pressures and availability this is also likely to rise. |
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And remember, this is not 70 odd percent of the original price. This is 70 odd percent of the price resulting from the previous 50 odd percent rise. In total that gives a more than 150% rise above the original price. For every £100 that your bill stood at last year, come October you will be paying over £250. The January rise will then be another percentage increase of the October price. Even at the currently suggested 6% (and lets face it, by the time January comes I'd be gobsmacked if that suggested 6% hasn't gone up to be something more like 60%), that would bring the price up to above £270 for every £100 you were paying last year.
Still it'll be okay because the government have got it in hand (*). They're stopping any short term investment in stuff like on-shore turbines that could provide power in six months to a year, so that within a mere 30 to 40 years they can build some new nuclear plants. Our great grandchildren will have plenty of energy!
*sarcasm alert
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By *rFunBoy OP Man
over a year ago
Longridge |
Lewis and others were spouting October would be a cut, then 22%, through 35%, 42%, 55%, 62%, 65% to current 77% and a few weeks still to go.
My guess is 86%. I hit 54% on the nail in April, and gut feeling 40% again in January as there will be a bidding war on Winter live day-trade supply. There will be little or no storage we usually call on in the EU, not heard anything yet on supplies of LNG from Texas resuming so assume still down.
No-one seems to want to talk about it (off line) and unsure if they have heads stuck deep in the sand or just scared.
Bought empty gas bottles over the weekend, after speaking, her and her neighbour later called over reducing bills - I just hope she doesn't want them back!!
1x 47kg for refilling. 2x 18kg to be made into log burners, one with water boiler to directly heat Hot Water Tanks in the house, other for patio.
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By *rFunBoy OP Man
over a year ago
Longridge |
"And remember, this is not 70 odd percent of the original price. This is 70 odd percent of the price resulting from the previous 50 odd percent rise. In total that gives a more than 150% rise above the original price. For every £100 that your bill stood at last year, come October you will be paying over £250. The January rise will then be another percentage increase of the October price. Even at the currently suggested 6% (and lets face it, by the time January comes I'd be gobsmacked if that suggested 6% hasn't gone up to be something more like 60%), that would bring the price up to above £270 for every £100 you were paying last year.
Still it'll be okay because the government have got it in hand (*). They're stopping any short term investment in stuff like on-shore turbines that could provide power in six months to a year, so that within a mere 30 to 40 years they can build some new nuclear plants. Our great grandchildren will have plenty of energy!
*sarcasm alert
"
You might need to re-revise your figures, there is talk on the grapevine of £4,400 in Jan then £4,700 next April and fall back to £4,000 next July. |
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"And remember, this is not 70 odd percent of the original price. This is 70 odd percent of the price resulting from the previous 50 odd percent rise. In total that gives a more than 150% rise above the original price. For every £100 that your bill stood at last year, come October you will be paying over £250. The January rise will then be another percentage increase of the October price. Even at the currently suggested 6% (and lets face it, by the time January comes I'd be gobsmacked if that suggested 6% hasn't gone up to be something more like 60%), that would bring the price up to above £270 for every £100 you were paying last year.
Still it'll be okay because the government have got it in hand (*). They're stopping any short term investment in stuff like on-shore turbines that could provide power in six months to a year, so that within a mere 30 to 40 years they can build some new nuclear plants. Our great grandchildren will have plenty of energy!
*sarcasm alert
You might need to re-revise your figures, there is talk on the grapevine of £4,400 in Jan then £4,700 next April and fall back to £4,000 next July."
Yeah my figures weren't the actual total for bills, just the results of the compounded rises for each £100 of last years bill. Trying to illustrate that (for instance) a rise of 20% then a further 20% six months later is more than a 40% rise, it's a rise of 44% against the original. And that making the rises more often actually allows them to be higher in total than on the face of it they sound. Eg. two rises of 50% at six month intervals sounds like it makes a total of 100%, but is actually 125%. And four rises of 25% at three month intervals also sounds like a total of 100%, but is actually 144%!
So when they say they are going to review the price cap every three months, it allows the government to somewhat disguise the total real rise.
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By *rFunBoy OP Man
over a year ago
Longridge |
Your calculations are correct. The comment was aimed at the fact they were already well out of date on the day they were reported.
Today, I've run the washer twice - 40 degree uses 1.01kwh, equivalent of 28p, last year that was 12p, after October it will be 51p or more.
I've also run the dryer twice at 1.8kwh per run. 92p each after October 1st.
People realise it's gone up, but the sleepwalking is that it is being disguised by Summer low usage. It will hit home hard when Winter bills start arriving.
For many electricity is a constant, its gas when heating goes on will be the crippling cost as it us no-longer pennies to run the boiler.
2 years ago, I was paying 3.5p per kwh gas, its going to 15p and bearing in mind heating uses a lot of it. Before, it was cheap enough not to notice. 2x hours at 12kw meaning your looking at £3.60 per day, £25.00 per week for something that used to be £6 per week. |
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By *rFunBoy OP Man
over a year ago
Longridge |
"Why are standing charges part of a price hike? If anything they should be coming down? "
There is an issue with Standing Charges that is grossly unfair and OFGEM claim they going to address it.
Last year many companies went bust, most of their customers paying Direct Debit are usually in 'Credit', some by £100's.
These losses were covered by OFGEM who transferred customers to new providers and then compensated for what was lost.
This money is not given by the government, it is collectively paid for by the rest of us - via increased Standing Charges.
This means those struggling and scratting on pre-pay meters end up paying a higher value to the 'fund', to compensate those sitting comfortably with accounts in Credit lost nothing.
It was put onto electricity as "not everyone uses gas", some was added to cover storm damage repair but the bulk of the 90% Standing Charge rise was to offset compensation given to cover credits on accounts.
There should be a limit as to how much accounts can be in credit as the rest of us pay more when this is lost.
It is also surprising why London and South East Standing Charges are a lot less than those in the North and West. It should be a flat fee for everyone, with no regional variations. |
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By *rFunBoy OP Man
over a year ago
Longridge |
Look at Scottish Power as not many are offering deals now the cat's out the bag. Not sure if they are taking on new customers.
Who you currently with?
You need to calculate each quarter of variable at today's rate, add 80% for the quarter Oct-Apr, then a further 6% again for Jan (it more than likely be higher)
If this works out more than best contract, take the contract as at least its fixed depending on Jan-Mar, Apr-Oct rises. Try and find zero or low exit fees in case there is some kind of miracle.
It is unlikely to fall much over the next 2 years so use the Oct rate for remaining contract period as there are no crystal balls that far ahead as there may be small fall in April.
There's more to calculating but this is basics. It's possible that you've missed the boat but worth a look.
I am just finishing a spreadsheet to calculate this. I can look at a way to share with anyone that wants a copy. |
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By *rFunBoy OP Man
over a year ago
Longridge |
Just looked at 2yr SP based on family member use.
50/day Standing Charge
52p/kwh electricity
35p/day Standing Charge
17p/kwh gas
£150 exit fees, personally, I wouldn't fix right now.
There was a window in March, I did put posts here telling others to fix after seeing this coming back then - but probably ignored. |
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By *oo hotCouple
over a year ago
North West |
Slightly off on a tangent, but why are we all so accepting that this is just the way that it has to be?
The privatisation experiment generally has been a disaster for ordinary people. It’s fine to rely on free market competition when the sun is shining and life is rosy, but as soon as a crisis occurs ordinary people take the hit.
This crisis really must be the moment in time when the Government protects ordinary people and allows the energy companies to go bust and re-nationalises this critical part of the national infrastructure. |
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By *rFunBoy OP Man
over a year ago
Longridge |
There's still a problem. We are not self sufficient in gas, therefore would still be exposed to high pricing externally.
Crude Oil price has dropped substantially the last few days, as now rather than a 'war footing', hedge funds are shitting their pants that a recession is looming leaving investors out of pocket and dumping stock onto the market, weakening the price.
It's at the February price again, so why is petrol not back at the February price of £1.35.
Last week, high price due to supply fears - this week they are selling off and forgotten about the war.
Just bizarre.
As for nationalising energy, will never happen as most of the Tories either have shares or pensions tied up in them.
"Tell Sid, I was a total phuck up", unless you're too young to remember? |
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