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Escalation

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By *oo hot OP   Couple  over a year ago

North West

Personally, I can’t see any way that escalation of war in Ukraine can be avoided.

Being a part of NATO seems to now be a reason NOT to act to protect the indiscriminate murder of innocent people and I think that one NATO member country will break ranks on a humanitarian basis in order to make a stand.

One country will do this - and then what?

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By (user no longer on site)  over a year ago

Nothing because I din’t think a NATO countries going to risk itself over Ukraine.

Even if they did there is no obligation for other NATO members to join unless territorial integrity is specifically threatened.Real worry is if Russia comes into contact with Turkey.

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By *oubleswing2019Man  over a year ago

Colchester


"Personally, I can’t see any way that escalation of war in Ukraine can be avoided.

Being a part of NATO seems to now be a reason NOT to act to protect the indiscriminate murder of innocent people and I think that one NATO member country will break ranks on a humanitarian basis in order to make a stand.

One country will do this - and then what?"

NATO's name would be mud if they attacked and Putin would say, "See, I told you so, our fears were not unfounded."

Nato don't just have to be seen to be whiter than white, they have to act whiter than white.

However that doesn't help the people on the ground.

What Nato can do is provide non-aggressive humanitarian assistance (which I believe they are doing ?) and defensive weaponry (which I believe they are doing?).

Non-Nato members however can act as their sovereign wishes desire.

And I would not be surprised if Israel, a Nato "Strategic Ally, but not a Nato Member" take more direct action. They are also a nuclear-armed power and I doubt they are afraid of Russia.

Israel could make life very difficult for Putin if they wanted.

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By *rFunBoyMan  over a year ago

Longridge

I get the impression they are pushing Poland into to testing the water first.

It won't stop at Ukraine and Moldova, it will go on and at what point does it get stopped.

A European war is becoming inevitable, how long does it get pushed back.

There may be a tiny light on the horizon. Putin must be getting very strapped for cash as I gather a law has been passed to start raiding bank accounts of wealthy Russians.

Let's hope some get so miffed that they take a gun to Vlad.

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By (user no longer on site)  over a year ago

A lot of you guys seem to be gagging for this to escalate. Israel seriously, their prime ministers been over talking to Putin, to mediate peace.

Israel is a tiny country with a couple of nukes. It won't take more than a dozen nukes to blow it of the map.

Do you seriously think it will start a war with a country with over 6,000 warheads. Why do think the US isn't entering, its always ready for a fight.

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By (user no longer on site)  over a year ago


"A lot of you guys seem to be gagging for this to escalate. Israel seriously, their prime ministers been over talking to Putin, to mediate peace.

Israel is a tiny country with a couple of nukes. It won't take more than a dozen nukes to blow it of the map.

Do you seriously think it will start a war with a country with over 6,000 warheads. Why do think the US isn't entering, its always ready for a fight."

The Israeli Premier went over to Russia to talk to Putin on the request of the Ukrainian president to try to mediate.

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By (user no longer on site)  over a year ago


"A lot of you guys seem to be gagging for this to escalate. Israel seriously, their prime ministers been over talking to Putin, to mediate peace.

Israel is a tiny country with a couple of nukes. It won't take more than a dozen nukes to blow it of the map.

Do you seriously think it will start a war with a country with over 6,000 warheads. Why do think the US isn't entering, its always ready for a fight.

The Israeli Premier went over to Russia to talk to Putin on the request of the Ukrainian president to try to mediate. "

Ukraine has requested that Israel serve as intermediary, citing the government's good relations with both Kyiv and Moscow.

So why is he going to start a war with Russia..

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By (user no longer on site)  over a year ago


"A lot of you guys seem to be gagging for this to escalate. Israel seriously, their prime ministers been over talking to Putin, to mediate peace.

Israel is a tiny country with a couple of nukes. It won't take more than a dozen nukes to blow it of the map.

Do you seriously think it will start a war with a country with over 6,000 warheads. Why do think the US isn't entering, its always ready for a fight.

The Israeli Premier went over to Russia to talk to Putin on the request of the Ukrainian president to try to mediate.

Ukraine has requested that Israel serve as intermediary, citing the government's good relations with both Kyiv and Moscow.

So why is he going to start a war with Russia.."

I didn't say he was.

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By *oo hot OP   Couple  over a year ago

North West


"A lot of you guys seem to be gagging for this to escalate. Israel seriously, their prime ministers been over talking to Putin, to mediate peace.

Israel is a tiny country with a couple of nukes. It won't take more than a dozen nukes to blow it of the map.

Do you seriously think it will start a war with a country with over 6,000 warheads. Why do think the US isn't entering, its always ready for a fight."

I don’t think anyone is gagging for anything to escalate. I am speculating that it most probably will because sooner or later another country will stand up and say enough is enough.

Here we all are waking up to our morning coffee and toast whilst ordinary people just like us are being bombed out of their homes and shot to death as they run away.

Sooner or later someone will do more than just tut, tut and virtue signal at how awfully, awfully terrible this is. That person will be on the right side of history because Ukraine is not the end of Putin’s subjugation campaign, it is only the beginning.

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By *sBlueWoman  over a year ago

Up North


"A lot of you guys seem to be gagging for this to escalate. Israel seriously, their prime ministers been over talking to Putin, to mediate peace.

Israel is a tiny country with a couple of nukes. It won't take more than a dozen nukes to blow it of the map.

Do you seriously think it will start a war with a country with over 6,000 warheads. Why do think the US isn't entering, its always ready for a fight.

I don’t think anyone is gagging for anything to escalate. I am speculating that it most probably will because sooner or later another country will stand up and say enough is enough.

Here we all are waking up to our morning coffee and toast whilst ordinary people just like us are being bombed out of their homes and shot to death as they run away.

Sooner or later someone will do more than just tut, tut and virtue signal at how awfully, awfully terrible this is. That person will be on the right side of history because Ukraine is not the end of Putin’s subjugation campaign, it is only the beginning."

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By *ostafunMan  over a year ago

near ipswich


"Personally, I can’t see any way that escalation of war in Ukraine can be avoided.

Being a part of NATO seems to now be a reason NOT to act to protect the indiscriminate murder of innocent people and I think that one NATO member country will break ranks on a humanitarian basis in order to make a stand.

One country will do this - and then what?"

I think putin will know by now that he made a big mistake his troops are shit and not what he has been led to believe they are.There is no way Russia want to escalate this.

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By (user no longer on site)  over a year ago


"Personally, I can’t see any way that escalation of war in Ukraine can be avoided.

Being a part of NATO seems to now be a reason NOT to act to protect the indiscriminate murder of innocent people and I think that one NATO member country will break ranks on a humanitarian basis in order to make a stand.

One country will do this - and then what?I think putin will know by now that he made a big mistake his troops are shit and not what he has been led to believe they are.There is no way Russia want to escalate this."

It doesn't matter whether Russia wants to escalate this or not this is all about Putin and very little to do with what ordinary Russian people want.

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By *ostafunMan  over a year ago

near ipswich


"Personally, I can’t see any way that escalation of war in Ukraine can be avoided.

Being a part of NATO seems to now be a reason NOT to act to protect the indiscriminate murder of innocent people and I think that one NATO member country will break ranks on a humanitarian basis in order to make a stand.

One country will do this - and then what?I think putin will know by now that he made a big mistake his troops are shit and not what he has been led to believe they are.There is no way Russia want to escalate this.

It doesn't matter whether Russia wants to escalate this or not this is all about Putin and very little to do with what ordinary Russian people want. "

Sorry my mistake i ment putin as i said he know knows how shit his military is.

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By *al2001Man  over a year ago

kildare

I would hope if things get that far putin would be offed by his own,they must be already talking about it.

Big difference between this and other wars is the oppressed, Russians in this case,have access to world news and know what's going on

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By (user no longer on site)  over a year ago


"I would hope if things get that far putin would be offed by his own,they must be already talking about it.

Big difference between this and other wars is the oppressed, Russians in this case,have access to world news and know what's going on"

The problem is people are conditioned and indoctrinated into believing what the regime is telling them.

I posted this the other day on another thread but I think it's worth reiterating.

I saw a news interview a couple of days ago about a young woman who was living in kyiv but her family are Russian and live in Russia. She had told her mother what was going on and even showd her live video and photos of the invasion outside her own apartment window and her mother still were fused to believe it was true, She said it was the Ukrainians doing it to blame Russia.

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By *al2001Man  over a year ago

kildare


"I would hope if things get that far putin would be offed by his own,they must be already talking about it.

Big difference between this and other wars is the oppressed, Russians in this case,have access to world news and know what's going on

The problem is people are conditioned and indoctrinated into believing what the regime is telling them.

I posted this the other day on another thread but I think it's worth reiterating.

I saw a news interview a couple of days ago about a young woman who was living in kyiv but her family are Russian and live in Russia. She had told her mother what was going on and even showd her live video and photos of the invasion outside her own apartment window and her mother still were fused to believe it was true, She said it was the Ukrainians doing it to blame Russia. "

I heard many stories similar,

But that's the average Russian on the street,its the army officers who know more and them who will do the offing,not a popular uprising

I hope

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By (user no longer on site)  over a year ago


"I would hope if things get that far putin would be offed by his own,they must be already talking about it.

Big difference between this and other wars is the oppressed, Russians in this case,have access to world news and know what's going on

The problem is people are conditioned and indoctrinated into believing what the regime is telling them.

I posted this the other day on another thread but I think it's worth reiterating.

I saw a news interview a couple of days ago about a young woman who was living in kyiv but her family are Russian and live in Russia. She had told her mother what was going on and even showd her live video and photos of the invasion outside her own apartment window and her mother still were fused to believe it was true, She said it was the Ukrainians doing it to blame Russia.

I heard many stories similar,

But that's the average Russian on the street,its the army officers who know more and them who will do the offing,not a popular uprising

I hope"

You can only hope that 1 of the reasons the Russian military has not made as many advances as was expected is because when faced with the reality The Russian soldiers just don't want to do Putin's bidding.

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By (user no longer on site)  over a year ago


"I would hope if things get that far putin would be offed by his own,they must be already talking about it.

Big difference between this and other wars is the oppressed, Russians in this case,have access to world news and know what's going on

The problem is people are conditioned and indoctrinated into believing what the regime is telling them.

I posted this the other day on another thread but I think it's worth reiterating.

I saw a news interview a couple of days ago about a young woman who was living in kyiv but her family are Russian and live in Russia. She had told her mother what was going on and even showd her live video and photos of the invasion outside her own apartment window and her mother still were fused to believe it was true, She said it was the Ukrainians doing it to blame Russia. "

I saw that too. Unbelievable and heartbreaking.

Reminds me of America.

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By *al2001Man  over a year ago

kildare


"I would hope if things get that far putin would be offed by his own,they must be already talking about it.

Big difference between this and other wars is the oppressed, Russians in this case,have access to world news and know what's going on

The problem is people are conditioned and indoctrinated into believing what the regime is telling them.

I posted this the other day on another thread but I think it's worth reiterating.

I saw a news interview a couple of days ago about a young woman who was living in kyiv but her family are Russian and live in Russia. She had told her mother what was going on and even showd her live video and photos of the invasion outside her own apartment window and her mother still were fused to believe it was true, She said it was the Ukrainians doing it to blame Russia.

I saw that too. Unbelievable and heartbreaking.

Reminds me of America."

Big difference.

In America they choose to swallow shit

Russians have no choice

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By *hetalkingstoveMan  over a year ago

London


"

Here we all are waking up to our morning coffee and toast whilst ordinary people just like us are being bombed out of their homes and shot to death as they run away.

"

This has been happening in the middle East for a long time and most people don't give a shit.

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By *irldnCouple  over a year ago

Brighton

You gotta hope good sense will prevail. An escalation will lead to WWIII and the highly likely deployment of nuclear weapons, certainly tactical but possibly ICBMs. I think this is actually the closest we have ever come.

NATO cannot enforce a no fly zone as that will bring NATO jets into direct conflict with Russian jets and trigger WWIII.

Russia cannot attack a NATO member as that will trigger WWIII.

All humanitarian issues to one side, Ukraine is not a member of NATO. So hands are tied.

It is actually the UN that needs to do something, except they are impotent due to who the members of the security council are.

However, if (big IF) the UN could do something, then the peacekeeping force would need to contain forces from countries that are not NATO members.

All that aside, China could play a positive role here. They could choose to not support (or be agnostic) the actions of Putin. Surely faced with NATO and China, it would give Putin pause? One thing China does know is that their economy is reliant on consumers around the world, and currently particularly Western consumers. Last thing they need is a war that destroys their primary markets!

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By (user no longer on site)  over a year ago


"You gotta hope good sense will prevail. An escalation will lead to WWIII and the highly likely deployment of nuclear weapons, certainly tactical but possibly ICBMs. I think this is actually the closest we have ever come.

NATO cannot enforce a no fly zone as that will bring NATO jets into direct conflict with Russian jets and trigger WWIII.

Russia cannot attack a NATO member as that will trigger WWIII.

All humanitarian issues to one side, Ukraine is not a member of NATO. So hands are tied.

It is actually the UN that needs to do something, except they are impotent due to who the members of the security council are.

However, if (big IF) the UN could do something, then the peacekeeping force would need to contain forces from countries that are not NATO members.

All that aside, China could play a positive role here. They could choose to not support (or be agnostic) the actions of Putin. Surely faced with NATO and China, it would give Putin pause? One thing China does know is that their economy is reliant on consumers around the world, and currently particularly Western consumers. Last thing they need is a war that destroys their primary markets!"

Hopefully China will step up to calm the situation down.

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By (user no longer on site)  over a year ago


"You gotta hope good sense will prevail. An escalation will lead to WWIII and the highly likely deployment of nuclear weapons, certainly tactical but possibly ICBMs. I think this is actually the closest we have ever come.

NATO cannot enforce a no fly zone as that will bring NATO jets into direct conflict with Russian jets and trigger WWIII.

Russia cannot attack a NATO member as that will trigger WWIII.

All humanitarian issues to one side, Ukraine is not a member of NATO. So hands are tied.

It is actually the UN that needs to do something, except they are impotent due to who the members of the security council are.

However, if (big IF) the UN could do something, then the peacekeeping force would need to contain forces from countries that are not NATO members.

All that aside, China could play a positive role here. They could choose to not support (or be agnostic) the actions of Putin. Surely faced with NATO and China, it would give Putin pause? One thing China does know is that their economy is reliant on consumers around the world, and currently particularly Western consumers. Last thing they need is a war that destroys their primary markets!

Hopefully China will step up to calm the situation down.

"

So far China has neither condoned or condemned the invasion. However they have now said they plan on giving significant aid to Ukraine, and they are willing to facilitate any talks and peace plans so hopefully it's a small step in the right direction but needs to happen quicker.

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By *irldnCouple  over a year ago

Brighton

Worryingly on the radio earlier today someone was saying that China has come out and said their relationship and support of Russia has never been stronger!?

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By (user no longer on site)  over a year ago


"Worryingly on the radio earlier today someone was saying that China has come out and said their relationship and support of Russia has never been stronger!?"

I don't think that's entirely true from the statement that I've seen that the Chinese official read out.

He basically said that they have a strong relationship with Russia so feels they can help in this situation and have said they will do what they can to help bring this to a diplomatic end. So yes they did say they had a strong relationship but I read into it that they were going to use that to try and a piece the situation and bring about a peaceful outcome.

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By (user no longer on site)  over a year ago


"Worryingly on the radio earlier today someone was saying that China has come out and said their relationship and support of Russia has never been stronger!?

I don't think that's entirely true from the statement that I've seen that the Chinese official read out.

He basically said that they have a strong relationship with Russia so feels they can help in this situation and have said they will do what they can to help bring this to a diplomatic end. So yes they did say they had a strong relationship but I read into it that they were going to use that to try and a piece the situation and bring about a peaceful outcome. "

I hope so.

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By *TMA that man againMan  over a year ago

worester


"I would hope if things get that far putin would be offed by his own,they must be already talking about it.

Big difference between this and other wars is the oppressed, Russians in this case,have access to world news and know what's going on"

Most of them don't though....!!

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By *oubleswing2019Man  over a year ago

Colchester


"Most of them don't though....!!"

And extrapolating that further...

Think about how many of us in the UK, for example, think about Palestine, Syria, Yemen, etc. And that is from those that know about the situation but instead say "Meh".

I would suggest a same amount in Russia who do know about the situation also say "Meh".

It's human nature. Few can afford the time and energy to worry about every single thing going on in the world.

And for those that do have to (eg, World Leaders), they have teams of special advisers covering all aspects of geo-political nuance, who advise accordingly.

John/Ivan down the Pub doesn't.

John/Ivan just needs a quick 30 second run down on who the bad guys are, or if he's feeling expansive in mood, who the really really bad guys are.

So long as it results in a binary decision, all is good for John/Ivan.

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By (user no longer on site)  over a year ago


"Most of them don't though....!!

And extrapolating that further...

Think about how many of us in the UK, for example, think about Palestine, Syria, Yemen, etc. And that is from those that know about the situation but instead say "Meh".

I would suggest a same amount in Russia who do know about the situation also say "Meh".

It's human nature. Few can afford the time and energy to worry about every single thing going on in the world.

And for those that do have to (eg, World Leaders), they have teams of special advisers covering all aspects of geo-political nuance, who advise accordingly.

John/Ivan down the Pub doesn't.

John/Ivan just needs a quick 30 second run down on who the bad guys are, or if he's feeling expansive in mood, who the really really bad guys are.

So long as it results in a binary decision, all is good for John/Ivan.

"

It won't be good for John/Ivan if it goes nuclear...

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By *V-AliceTV/TS  over a year ago

Ayr


"Personally, I can’t see any way that escalation of war in Ukraine can be avoided.

Being a part of NATO seems to now be a reason NOT to act to protect the indiscriminate murder of innocent people and I think that one NATO member country will break ranks on a humanitarian basis in order to make a stand.

One country will do this - and then what?"

Well, it won't be a NATO country. The reason all the NATO countries are bending over backwards not to get directly involved, is to avoid the use of nuclear weapons.

It's obvious that, should NATO become involved, it would wipe the floor with what Russia has been able to offer up so far.

In liberating Ukraine, NATO would be heading east, towards Russia. At that point, do you really think Vlad is going to surrender and accept defeat gracefully?

And if you think the governments of Europe and the United States are going to expose their citizens to the consequences of an exchange of nuclear weapons, just to preserve the freedom of Ukraine, you're sadly mistaken.

They'll do what they did when the Russians invaded Afghanistan; support an insurgency, make a ton of money selling weapons and, as they did back then, wait for Russian resolve to crumble - though that will mean waiting for the removal of Putin, one way or another.

Biding your time works - and though it would be horrific for the Ukrainians to endure years of suffering under the Russians; it's a preferable outcome compared to a nuclear war.

If I seem harsh in saying that, ask yourself this:

Would you rather the Ukrainians suffered what the Afghans have had to for over 40 years - or your own children growing up in a wasteland devastated by nuclear war and, possibly, continuing climate change?

Things are already very bad - NATO taking an active part in this conflict would be a disaster. Why do you think they aren't doing it?

Our governments are trying - like it or not - to make sure you don't suffer a worse fate than the Ukrainians are.

The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few. That's not something capitalists usually believe in - but when it comes to an existential threat to human life on Earth, it's true.

Short term pain for long term gain is always better than short term gain for long term pain.

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By *V-AliceTV/TS  over a year ago

Ayr


"You gotta hope good sense will prevail. An escalation will lead to WWIII and the highly likely deployment of nuclear weapons, certainly tactical but possibly ICBMs. I think this is actually the closest we have ever come.

NATO cannot enforce a no fly zone as that will bring NATO jets into direct conflict with Russian jets and trigger WWIII.

Russia cannot attack a NATO member as that will trigger WWIII.

All humanitarian issues to one side, Ukraine is not a member of NATO. So hands are tied.

It is actually the UN that needs to do something, except they are impotent due to who the members of the security council are.

However, if (big IF) the UN could do something, then the peacekeeping force would need to contain forces from countries that are not NATO members.

All that aside, China could play a positive role here. They could choose to not support (or be agnostic) the actions of Putin. Surely faced with NATO and China, it would give Putin pause? One thing China does know is that their economy is reliant on consumers around the world, and currently particularly Western consumers. Last thing they need is a war that destroys their primary markets!"

Indeed.

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By *oo hot OP   Couple  over a year ago

North West


"Personally, I can’t see any way that escalation of war in Ukraine can be avoided.

Being a part of NATO seems to now be a reason NOT to act to protect the indiscriminate murder of innocent people and I think that one NATO member country will break ranks on a humanitarian basis in order to make a stand.

One country will do this - and then what?

Well, it won't be a NATO country. The reason all the NATO countries are bending over backwards not to get directly involved, is to avoid the use of nuclear weapons.

It's obvious that, should NATO become involved, it would wipe the floor with what Russia has been able to offer up so far.

In liberating Ukraine, NATO would be heading east, towards Russia. At that point, do you really think Vlad is going to surrender and accept defeat gracefully?

And if you think the governments of Europe and the United States are going to expose their citizens to the consequences of an exchange of nuclear weapons, just to preserve the freedom of Ukraine, you're sadly mistaken.

They'll do what they did when the Russians invaded Afghanistan; support an insurgency, make a ton of money selling weapons and, as they did back then, wait for Russian resolve to crumble - though that will mean waiting for the removal of Putin, one way or another.

Biding your time works - and though it would be horrific for the Ukrainians to endure years of suffering under the Russians; it's a preferable outcome compared to a nuclear war.

If I seem harsh in saying that, ask yourself this:

Would you rather the Ukrainians suffered what the Afghans have had to for over 40 years - or your own children growing up in a wasteland devastated by nuclear war and, possibly, continuing climate change?

Things are already very bad - NATO taking an active part in this conflict would be a disaster. Why do you think they aren't doing it?

Our governments are trying - like it or not - to make sure you don't suffer a worse fate than the Ukrainians are.

The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few. That's not something capitalists usually believe in - but when it comes to an existential threat to human life on Earth, it's true.

Short term pain for long term gain is always better than short term gain for long term pain."

Why do you assume that nuclear weapons would be used?

There are still strategic decisions to be made about value. The use of nuclear weapons will turn the planet into a wasteland for sure but even Putin would have to calculate the value of the assured and total destruction of Russia against finding a way out of the Ukraine situation.

A conflict between a NATO country and Ukraine would not necessarily end in nuclear Armageddon.

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By *irldnCouple  over a year ago

Brighton

Copied from another thread as I thought it was an interesting take...

David Starkey (yes I know but still a good historian) was interviewed yesterday and raised a few interesting points:

1. We may be on the brink (and may indeed get closer) but we will (hopefully) pull back from actual nuclear war.

2. Ukraine will be sacrificed for the “greater good” (ie to avoid WWIII).

3. NATO will accept Sweden and Finland.

4. The EU may expand further (Georgia for example).

5. China and Russia will move closer.

6. Return to the Cold War era with distinct “ideological” blocs for trading and defence.

7. The other non security council nuclear powers of Pakistan and India will have to decide where their allegiances lie.

8. He was very critical (but understanding) of a focus on western centred financial systems, saying that China will be desperate to fill the gap and can do that with Russia.

9. He also pointed out that while the West has rejected Imperialism we should remember that both Russia and China are empires in all but name and their leaders maintain that mindset.

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By *otMe66Man  over a year ago

Terra Firma


"Copied from another thread as I thought it was an interesting take...

David Starkey (yes I know but still a good historian) was interviewed yesterday and raised a few interesting points:

1. We may be on the brink (and may indeed get closer) but we will (hopefully) pull back from actual nuclear war.

2. Ukraine will be sacrificed for the “greater good” (ie to avoid WWIII).

3. NATO will accept Sweden and Finland.

4. The EU may expand further (Georgia for example).

5. China and Russia will move closer.

6. Return to the Cold War era with distinct “ideological” blocs for trading and defence.

7. The other non security council nuclear powers of Pakistan and India will have to decide where their allegiances lie.

8. He was very critical (but understanding) of a focus on western centred financial systems, saying that China will be desperate to fill the gap and can do that with Russia.

9. He also pointed out that while the West has rejected Imperialism we should remember that both Russia and China are empires in all but name and their leaders maintain that mindset."

Tribe destructive technology has come on leaps and bounds, but tribe mentality remains unchanged.

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By *V-AliceTV/TS  over a year ago

Ayr


"Personally, I can’t see any way that escalation of war in Ukraine can be avoided.

Being a part of NATO seems to now be a reason NOT to act to protect the indiscriminate murder of innocent people and I think that one NATO member country will break ranks on a humanitarian basis in order to make a stand.

One country will do this - and then what?

Well, it won't be a NATO country. The reason all the NATO countries are bending over backwards not to get directly involved, is to avoid the use of nuclear weapons.

It's obvious that, should NATO become involved, it would wipe the floor with what Russia has been able to offer up so far.

In liberating Ukraine, NATO would be heading east, towards Russia. At that point, do you really think Vlad is going to surrender and accept defeat gracefully?

And if you think the governments of Europe and the United States are going to expose their citizens to the consequences of an exchange of nuclear weapons, just to preserve the freedom of Ukraine, you're sadly mistaken.

They'll do what they did when the Russians invaded Afghanistan; support an insurgency, make a ton of money selling weapons and, as they did back then, wait for Russian resolve to crumble - though that will mean waiting for the removal of Putin, one way or another.

Biding your time works - and though it would be horrific for the Ukrainians to endure years of suffering under the Russians; it's a preferable outcome compared to a nuclear war.

If I seem harsh in saying that, ask yourself this:

Would you rather the Ukrainians suffered what the Afghans have had to for over 40 years - or your own children growing up in a wasteland devastated by nuclear war and, possibly, continuing climate change?

Things are already very bad - NATO taking an active part in this conflict would be a disaster. Why do you think they aren't doing it?

Our governments are trying - like it or not - to make sure you don't suffer a worse fate than the Ukrainians are.

The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few. That's not something capitalists usually believe in - but when it comes to an existential threat to human life on Earth, it's true.

Short term pain for long term gain is always better than short term gain for long term pain.

Why do you assume that nuclear weapons would be used?

There are still strategic decisions to be made about value. The use of nuclear weapons will turn the planet into a wasteland for sure but even Putin would have to calculate the value of the assured and total destruction of Russia against finding a way out of the Ukraine situation.

A conflict between a NATO country and Ukraine would not necessarily end in nuclear Armageddon."

Fair point - but it's a risk that our leaders, quite rightly, are not prepared to contemplate.

It's also a risk, given Putin's state of mind, that has never been higher, since the Cuban Missile Crisis.

Mutually Assured Destruction only works, as it has, because it is assumed that no rational leader, in overall control of nuclear weapons, would ever use them first, knowing what the result would be.

Right now, we can't assume Putin is rational, particularly given what he's lately unleashed.

We have to weigh up the risk / reward equation very carefully- because it's obvious that he really hasn't.

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By *V-AliceTV/TS  over a year ago

Ayr


"Copied from another thread as I thought it was an interesting take...

David Starkey (yes I know but still a good historian) was interviewed yesterday and raised a few interesting points:

1. We may be on the brink (and may indeed get closer) but we will (hopefully) pull back from actual nuclear war.

2. Ukraine will be sacrificed for the “greater good” (ie to avoid WWIII).

3. NATO will accept Sweden and Finland.

4. The EU may expand further (Georgia for example).

5. China and Russia will move closer.

6. Return to the Cold War era with distinct “ideological” blocs for trading and defence.

7. The other non security council nuclear powers of Pakistan and India will have to decide where their allegiances lie.

8. He was very critical (but understanding) of a focus on western centred financial systems, saying that China will be desperate to fill the gap and can do that with Russia.

9. He also pointed out that while the West has rejected Imperialism we should remember that both Russia and China are empires in all but name and their leaders maintain that mindset."

I hate to agree with the specky little cunt - but he does make some relevant points.

The final one is backed up by the fact that, in the many centuries of their histories, neither Russia nor China has ever been a democracy.

You could argue that the USA never built an empire, certainly in the way that Britain did; but, if we're doing the "in all but name" thing, then it's not unrealistic to see it as acting as an imperial power, whenever it wants to.

In any case, avoiding the use of nuclear weapons has to be the priority - and our leaders are doing what they can to that end. If it means Starkey's 2nd point has to happen; so be it.

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By (user no longer on site)  over a year ago

[Removed by poster at 09/03/22 13:03:37]

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By (user no longer on site)  over a year ago

Putin and/or the Russian leadership, are actively trying to avoid an escalation that leads to conflict with NATO. Anything it says is just rhetoric and propaganda.

Have you looked at the invasion maps showing where Russian forces are and where they are attacking in the news? Notice how there are hundreds of miles between a NATO nations border and a conflict zone?

Judge a person by their actions and not their words. While he is happy to sow horror and misery in Ukraine, Putin wouldn't dare escalate further. He knows to do so would provoke article 5 and a prompt bullet in the back of the head from one of his many cronies who don't want the world destroyed.

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By (user no longer on site)  over a year ago


"Putin and/or the Russian leadership, are actively trying to avoid an escalation that leads to conflict with NATO. Anything it says is just rhetoric and propaganda.

Have you looked at the invasion maps showing where Russian forces are and where they are attacking in the news? Notice how there are hundreds of miles between a NATO nations border and a conflict zone?

Judge a person by their actions and not their words. While he is happy to sow horror and misery in Ukraine, Putin wouldn't dare escalate further. He knows to do so would provoke article 5 and a prompt bullet in the back of the head from one of his many cronies who don't want the world destroyed."

What is Article 5?

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By (user no longer on site)  over a year ago


"Putin and/or the Russian leadership, are actively trying to avoid an escalation that leads to conflict with NATO. Anything it says is just rhetoric and propaganda.

Have you looked at the invasion maps showing where Russian forces are and where they are attacking in the news? Notice how there are hundreds of miles between a NATO nations border and a conflict zone?

Judge a person by their actions and not their words. While he is happy to sow horror and misery in Ukraine, Putin wouldn't dare escalate further. He knows to do so would provoke article 5 and a prompt bullet in the back of the head from one of his many cronies who don't want the world destroyed.

What is Article 5? "

It's the one that comes after Article 4.

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By (user no longer on site)  over a year ago

(Jus a joke. Didn't mean to act smug, since I have no idea what it is.)

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By (user no longer on site)  over a year ago


"(Jus a joke. Didn't mean to act smug, since I have no idea what it is.)"

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By *ools and the brainCouple  over a year ago

couple, us we him her.


"Putin and/or the Russian leadership, are actively trying to avoid an escalation that leads to conflict with NATO. Anything it says is just rhetoric and propaganda.

Have you looked at the invasion maps showing where Russian forces are and where they are attacking in the news? Notice how there are hundreds of miles between a NATO nations border and a conflict zone?

Judge a person by their actions and not their words. While he is happy to sow horror and misery in Ukraine, Putin wouldn't dare escalate further. He knows to do so would provoke article 5 and a prompt bullet in the back of the head from one of his many cronies who don't want the world destroyed.

What is Article 5? "

Basically declaration of war against NATO.

As good as anyway.

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By *irldnCouple  over a year ago

Brighton


"Putin and/or the Russian leadership, are actively trying to avoid an escalation that leads to conflict with NATO. Anything it says is just rhetoric and propaganda.

Have you looked at the invasion maps showing where Russian forces are and where they are attacking in the news? Notice how there are hundreds of miles between a NATO nations border and a conflict zone?

Judge a person by their actions and not their words. While he is happy to sow horror and misery in Ukraine, Putin wouldn't dare escalate further. He knows to do so would provoke article 5 and a prompt bullet in the back of the head from one of his many cronies who don't want the world destroyed.

What is Article 5?

Basically declaration of war against NATO.

As good as anyway."

I thought Article 5 was along the lines of any country who is a member of NATO that comes under attack from a foreign power can expect all other nations who are members of NATO to come to their defence (unless you are Greece and Turkey then it is a bit tricky).

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By *ools and the brainCouple  over a year ago

couple, us we him her.


"Putin and/or the Russian leadership, are actively trying to avoid an escalation that leads to conflict with NATO. Anything it says is just rhetoric and propaganda.

Have you looked at the invasion maps showing where Russian forces are and where they are attacking in the news? Notice how there are hundreds of miles between a NATO nations border and a conflict zone?

Judge a person by their actions and not their words. While he is happy to sow horror and misery in Ukraine, Putin wouldn't dare escalate further. He knows to do so would provoke article 5 and a prompt bullet in the back of the head from one of his many cronies who don't want the world destroyed.

What is Article 5?

Basically declaration of war against NATO.

As good as anyway.

I thought Article 5 was along the lines of any country who is a member of NATO that comes under attack from a foreign power can expect all other nations who are members of NATO to come to their defence (unless you are Greece and Turkey then it is a bit tricky)."

Well yes but it roughly translates.y

You attack one of us your attacking all of us.

Your declaring war against NATO.

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