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Chaos theory economics - why Brexit could never succeed
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"You lost get over it its getting really boring.the eu is finished." The country lost. It's incredibly sad that you can't even see that. | |||
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"yawn." You just cant admit that Brexit is a failure. Just like all who voted for brexit. | |||
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"So, could anybody have ever made Brexit work? Regardless of the politics, right or left. Regardless of whether the EU was too controlling or just right. Regardless of whether we needed to "take back control" or not. Could Brexit have ever succeeded in any universe? I believe not - because of chaos theory applied to economics. The fact is that economics is not a nice clean science. It's not possible to set a tax rate and have it produce an exactly predictable result. Inflation cannot be properly controlled by interest rates. Giving a wage rise to one sector always creates unrest in a different, unpredictable, sector. It's like the butterfly effect. A small nudge may have a small effect initially, but you cannot tell how that will change things in the long run. So why is any economy stable for even an instant? Because in a properly run economy, the government is continually making small adjustments, and the population, and the rest of the globe, has enough time to accommodate to those adjustments. Things can still spiral out of control, especially when a government ignores what is happening to the population, to the global economy, and just continues along a predetermined course for ideological reasons. When we joined the Common Market as was, it was a relatively small change. Mainly some rules that allowed our trading to slowly increase. Certainly some companies won, some lost. Some people got rich, some people got poor. But mainly it took a while for things to change, the government could keep it's hand on the steering wheel, mostly prevent anything going too crazy. There were still crises, but these were mainly caused by governments taking their eye off the ball, or thinking they could easily control the action then finding out too late that they couldn't. Mostly we had 50 years of economic evolution, not revolution. But Brexit... This wasn't a gradual change. This was revolution. This was taking a sledgehammer to 50 years worth of order, smashing it all up overnight. Chaos theory is basically the law of unintended consequences. When you make very large changes in economy, in trading law, in population dynamics, all at once, then it is totally impossible to predict what will happen. When the problems appear - there were always going to be some problems, somewhere - then trying to fix those problems will create unforeseen new problems. And fixing those will create yet more problems. The system is too big to model what will happen, it is unpredictable. We can look at the effects in retrospect and say, oh it's obvious that this was caused by that, which happened because of the other. But we couldn't have fixed it up front, because that would just have broken something else. Example - fishing rights. Fishermen wanted areas around the UK returned to UK fishermen. Result, UK fishermen lose access to some other areas. Now UK fishermen find that the areas they have got are full of fish species that are eaten on the continent, but have no ready market in the UK. But abolition of free trade rules causes delays in moving goods from UK to EU, which means fish go bad while en route. So UK fishermen have fish they cannot sell, and lose money. In retrospect obvious. But if different rules had been set, whatever they were, the big change in a small time period would create some other problem. Example - HGV drivers. We don't have enough HGV drivers. So HGV wages go up. Other types of professional drivers take a training course, upgrade their license, start driving HGVs. Now there is not enough bin wagon drivers, not enough bus drivers. And the wage increase for HGV drivers makes transport companies charge more. So prices have to go up in shops. So everybody else has less purchasing power. Care workers demand a pay increase. So care home charges have to go up. Which means that grandad cannot afford the care home any more, and has to go live with his daughter. Which puts pressure on her finances, her job. And something else in the economy breaks. And so forth. Nobody can predict the effects. Government flounders trying things like issuing thousands of visas to get workers to come from overseas. Who bring their families, which puts pressure on housing and schooling. Every single "quick fix" causes another problem. Brexit was always going to break the economy, because it was a big change of everything. We know that the results were unpredictable, because they were not predicted. Yes there were many predictions of things going wrong, but nobody knew just which of those things would happen, and nobody knew any way to prevent them happening. And everybody ignored the warnings of things going wrong, because who can believe a warning of "things will go wrong, but I cannot tell you which things will go wrong"? Chaos theory. Unintended consequences. Brexit could not have worked. It was an economic change as big as a war. There was no good brexit. How to fix it quickly? Not possible. Only by changing things very, very slowly over a long period of time. And by accepting that the final result will be nothing like anybody wanted, that everybody will be disappointed. It will not please any of the leavers, it will certainly not please any of the remainers. The brexit ship has hit the iceberg. We are all in the lifeboats now." so your life must of changed dramatically since brexit then ??? | |||
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"How on Earth do non-EU countries manage? They must all be struggling, yes? But they're not. They have been out-performing the EU for decades" which do your have in mind ? While I disagree with the use of the term chaos theory in the OP isn't the point more that making a huge change to trade will cause u foreseen effects in a complex system. Those other countries haven't gone thru that. We are picking out the raisons from a naked cake, versus others never putting them in to start. The former may not leave as pretty a cake.... | |||
"How on Earth do non-EU countries manage? They must all be struggling, yes? But they're not. They have been out-performing the EU for decadeswhich do your have in mind ? While I disagree with the use of the term chaos theory in the OP isn't the point more that making a huge change to trade will cause u foreseen effects in a complex system. Those other countries haven't gone thru that. We are picking out the raisons from a naked cake, versus others never putting them in to start. The former may not leave as pretty a cake...." I'm thinking just about most countries in the world actually. The EU share of world trade has been shrinking for decades and it has no hope of reversing that | |||
"How on Earth do non-EU countries manage? They must all be struggling, yes? But they're not. They have been out-performing the EU for decadeswhich do your have in mind ? While I disagree with the use of the term chaos theory in the OP isn't the point more that making a huge change to trade will cause u foreseen effects in a complex system. Those other countries haven't gone thru that. We are picking out the raisons from a naked cake, versus others never putting them in to start. The former may not leave as pretty a cake.... I'm thinking just about most countries in the world actually. The EU share of world trade has been shrinking for decades and it has no hope of reversing that" This gets trotted out so often. It implies that the EU is trading less, when the truth is the rest of the world is industrialisng. | |||
"How on Earth do non-EU countries manage? They must all be struggling, yes? But they're not. They have been out-performing the EU for decadeswhich do your have in mind ? While I disagree with the use of the term chaos theory in the OP isn't the point more that making a huge change to trade will cause u foreseen effects in a complex system. Those other countries haven't gone thru that. We are picking out the raisons from a naked cake, versus others never putting them in to start. The former may not leave as pretty a cake.... I'm thinking just about most countries in the world actually. The EU share of world trade has been shrinking for decades and it has no hope of reversing that This gets trotted out so often. It implies that the EU is trading less, when the truth is the rest of the world is industrialisng. " Do you ever wonder why EU unemployment is so stubbornly high? | |||
"How on Earth do non-EU countries manage? They must all be struggling, yes? But they're not. They have been out-performing the EU for decadeswhich do your have in mind ? While I disagree with the use of the term chaos theory in the OP isn't the point more that making a huge change to trade will cause u foreseen effects in a complex system. Those other countries haven't gone thru that. We are picking out the raisons from a naked cake, versus others never putting them in to start. The former may not leave as pretty a cake.... I'm thinking just about most countries in the world actually. The EU share of world trade has been shrinking for decades and it has no hope of reversing that This gets trotted out so often. It implies that the EU is trading less, when the truth is the rest of the world is industrialisng. Do you ever wonder why EU unemployment is so stubbornly high?" Do you ever wonder why UK exports are tanking? | |||
"How on Earth do non-EU countries manage? They must all be struggling, yes? But they're not. They have been out-performing the EU for decadeswhich do your have in mind ? While I disagree with the use of the term chaos theory in the OP isn't the point more that making a huge change to trade will cause u foreseen effects in a complex system. Those other countries haven't gone thru that. We are picking out the raisons from a naked cake, versus others never putting them in to start. The former may not leave as pretty a cake.... I'm thinking just about most countries in the world actually. The EU share of world trade has been shrinking for decades and it has no hope of reversing that This gets trotted out so often. It implies that the EU is trading less, when the truth is the rest of the world is industrialisng. Do you ever wonder why EU unemployment is so stubbornly high? Do you ever wonder why UK exports are tanking?" The OP appeared to suggest that being independent of the EU can't work...and the rest of the world suggests that membership of the EU actually holds back economic performance. Exports with the rest of the world are increasing... although, yes, the EU is trying as hard as possible to make trade difficult. | |||
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"How on Earth do non-EU countries manage? They must all be struggling, yes? But they're not. They have been out-performing the EU for decadeswhich do your have in mind ? While I disagree with the use of the term chaos theory in the OP isn't the point more that making a huge change to trade will cause u foreseen effects in a complex system. Those other countries haven't gone thru that. We are picking out the raisons from a naked cake, versus others never putting them in to start. The former may not leave as pretty a cake.... I'm thinking just about most countries in the world actually. The EU share of world trade has been shrinking for decades and it has no hope of reversing that This gets trotted out so often. It implies that the EU is trading less, when the truth is the rest of the world is industrialisng. Do you ever wonder why EU unemployment is so stubbornly high? Do you ever wonder why UK exports are tanking?" are they ? | |||
"How on Earth do non-EU countries manage? They must all be struggling, yes? But they're not. They have been out-performing the EU for decadeswhich do your have in mind ? While I disagree with the use of the term chaos theory in the OP isn't the point more that making a huge change to trade will cause u foreseen effects in a complex system. Those other countries haven't gone thru that. We are picking out the raisons from a naked cake, versus others never putting them in to start. The former may not leave as pretty a cake.... I'm thinking just about most countries in the world actually. The EU share of world trade has been shrinking for decades and it has no hope of reversing that This gets trotted out so often. It implies that the EU is trading less, when the truth is the rest of the world is industrialisng. Do you ever wonder why EU unemployment is so stubbornly high? Do you ever wonder why UK exports are tanking?are they ?" Yes, to the tune of several billion according to the ONS | |||
"How on Earth do non-EU countries manage? They must all be struggling, yes? But they're not. They have been out-performing the EU for decadeswhich do your have in mind ? While I disagree with the use of the term chaos theory in the OP isn't the point more that making a huge change to trade will cause u foreseen effects in a complex system. Those other countries haven't gone thru that. We are picking out the raisons from a naked cake, versus others never putting them in to start. The former may not leave as pretty a cake.... I'm thinking just about most countries in the world actually. The EU share of world trade has been shrinking for decades and it has no hope of reversing that This gets trotted out so often. It implies that the EU is trading less, when the truth is the rest of the world is industrialisng. Do you ever wonder why EU unemployment is so stubbornly high? Do you ever wonder why UK exports are tanking?are they ? Yes, to the tune of several billion according to the ONS" and did they say it was only due to brexit ? | |||
"How on Earth do non-EU countries manage? They must all be struggling, yes? But they're not. They have been out-performing the EU for decadeswhich do your have in mind ? While I disagree with the use of the term chaos theory in the OP isn't the point more that making a huge change to trade will cause u foreseen effects in a complex system. Those other countries haven't gone thru that. We are picking out the raisons from a naked cake, versus others never putting them in to start. The former may not leave as pretty a cake.... I'm thinking just about most countries in the world actually. The EU share of world trade has been shrinking for decades and it has no hope of reversing that This gets trotted out so often. It implies that the EU is trading less, when the truth is the rest of the world is industrialisng. Do you ever wonder why EU unemployment is so stubbornly high? Do you ever wonder why UK exports are tanking? The OP appeared to suggest that being independent of the EU can't work...and the rest of the world suggests that membership of the EU actually holds back economic performance. Exports with the rest of the world are increasing... although, yes, the EU is trying as hard as possible to make trade difficult. " I'd suggest you are implying a causation there that you need to prove. If also suggest that you'd need to show that any causation will disappear post brexit. Eg some countries are growing due to a reliance on cheap foreign labour. But that isn't a strategy we can take unless we change our immigration approach. | |||
"How on Earth do non-EU countries manage? They must all be struggling, yes? But they're not. They have been out-performing the EU for decadeswhich do your have in mind ? While I disagree with the use of the term chaos theory in the OP isn't the point more that making a huge change to trade will cause u foreseen effects in a complex system. Those other countries haven't gone thru that. We are picking out the raisons from a naked cake, versus others never putting them in to start. The former may not leave as pretty a cake.... I'm thinking just about most countries in the world actually. The EU share of world trade has been shrinking for decades and it has no hope of reversing that This gets trotted out so often. It implies that the EU is trading less, when the truth is the rest of the world is industrialisng. Do you ever wonder why EU unemployment is so stubbornly high? Do you ever wonder why UK exports are tanking?are they ? Yes, to the tune of several billion according to the ONS and did they say it was only due to brexit ?" Have you ever heard of Occam's razor? | |||
"The EU had 31% of world trade in 1980 compared to 16% now" What does that statistic actually mean? Without context it is meaningless. Is it Exports from the EU to the rest of the world? Is it imports from the rest of the world to the EU? Is the EU GDP? What is the context of the figures quoted? Also trying to compare (for example) Vietnam’s relationship to the EU with our relationship to the EU is ridiculously simplistic. We are in Europe, the British Isles is on the Continent of Europe and throughout history the vast majority of our trade has been done with our closest neighbours in Europe. Similarly Vietnam will trade most with Indo-China neighbours. Brexit, by its very definition, introduces barriers and inflexibility in the way that this country trades with its closest neighbours and because those close neighbours make up most of our trade, it is simply common sense that there will be repercussions on the country caused directly by Brexit. I would have more respect Brexiters if they would at least acknowledge the factual repercussions that Brexit was inevitably going to cause - simply because of what Brexit means. But I guess we know what comes next. “Brexit was perfect, but the EU purposely made it too complicated. The failure of Brexit is all down to the EU bully boys.” | |||
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"The EU had 31% of world trade in 1980 compared to 16% now" In 1980 the EU (was not EU then but common market) was a lot smaller than it is now as several countries have joined. As its much bigger now surely the percentage would go up | |||
"TheBrexit ship has hit the iceberg. We are all in the lifeboats now." Well, if an iceberg has been hit, we're not all in the lifeboats; it's just the wealthy, like what happened with the Titanic. | |||
"The EU had 31% of world trade in 1980 compared to 16% now In 1980 the EU (was not EU then but common market) was a lot smaller than it is now as several countries have joined. As its much bigger now surely the percentage would go up" The 31pc is based on EU membership today I believe. The reason for the big fall is China. That went from 0.3 (c Canada) to 17 (trillion). (IMF numbers) Since 1980, US grew 7x, Germany c5.5 and Japan 5. So I'm not sure which countries are being comlated to say EU countries has low growth. Countries with huge populationw have grown GDP. But the top countries are all pretty similar compared to 1980. | |||
"How on Earth do non-EU countries manage? They must all be struggling, yes? But they're not. They have been out-performing the EU for decadeswhich do your have in mind ? While I disagree with the use of the term chaos theory in the OP isn't the point more that making a huge change to trade will cause u foreseen effects in a complex system. Those other countries haven't gone thru that. We are picking out the raisons from a naked cake, versus others never putting them in to start. The former may not leave as pretty a cake...." Yes that was the point. By changing so many things all at the same time, it was utterly impossible to predict exactly what would go wrong, all that could be certain was that the results would not be as intended. Economies are not simple predictable things, the government does not have control of all the levers that affect what happens. A totalitarian state can have closed borders and rule things with a hand of steel, eg. North Korea, but even then international events will have effects. In the case of brexit, the ongoing situation is influenced by the UK government, the opposition, the population, the EU government, the EU workers, the USA government, the Republic of Ireland, the Scottish parliament, the Welsh assembly, the actions of the individual countries within the EU, the actions of all the countries that we trade with, the ongoing diplomatic/trade war with China (blacklisting of Huawei etc, requiring companies to change electronic designs and remove Chinese components, thus affecting 5G rollout), and basically everything else going on in the world. Even in normal times there are all these external forces working on the UK economy, just as they do on the economies of every other country, and it is difficult enough to keep any stability. With brexit as well, we have basically scrapped every international treaty with our closest neighbours and biggest trading partners (and knock on effect with pretty well every other of our trading partners across the globe, as nearly all those treaties had developed through the last 40 years and were conditional on being in the EU - hence why the 5 year scramble to renegotiate with a hundred countries just to stay still). When too many thing change all at once, you just can't fix them instantly and carry on. If you get one tire puncture you can pull your car over, change the wheel for the spare, and be on your way again within half an hour. You can probably still make that delivery, catch that airplane, whatever. But if you get 4 punctures all at the same time, you're not going anywhere soon. When it's all 4 tyres, your phone is flat, your insurance has been invalidated, the motorway is flooding, it's dark, you're lost... well you get the picture. It might be raining on your competitor as well, but at least his headlights still work. We went into the common market slowly, much of its organisation developed with us already there, we had a voice in setting the rules. There were still difficulties and even crises (anyone remember the UK membership of the ERM falling apart?), but not everything changing all at once. We came out of the EU very quickly, the deal was still being written up to 10 minutes before being signed, and we have found to our cost that it covered nowhere near every eventuality. Nobody could have predicted the major problems, or more precisely, lots of people predicted hundreds of different problems but nobody could say exactly which specific ones of them would cause the most trouble and which could be ignored for a while. Any particular problem could have been circumvented, but then something different would have gone wrong. Brexit would still have gone very wrong even if it hadn't been for covid (and remember, it was our government that refused the offer of delays to allow covid to be sorted before total exit). We get many voices saying "it would be okay if it wasn't for the EU working against us" - but that was exactly the point of brexit, to climb out from under the umbrella of the EU, to stop cooperating with them and be a competitor instead. Of course the EU are working against us, because we are now working against them! My OP was not implying that our entire economy would overnight cease to operate, chaotic change to a system does not necessarily mean that everything descends into anarchy. But what it does say is that when too many things are changing all at once, it becomes impossible to predict in advance what will happen, that there may be no directly visible link from cause to effect. Things can go wrong because you are changing a lot, so things will go wrong. Brexit couldn't succeed because even if we knew what we were doing, it meant so many changes all at once, with many of the forces operating being out of our control, that there was no chance of ever ending up where we wanted to be. | |||
"Just curious.... but if Brexit is a success, like so many people suggest.... then why does it matter what the EU think or do ? You’ve ‘taken back control’ after decades of doffing the cap... you’ve saved the millions of pounds that was normally stolen every week by the Evil EU... you’ve finally ‘won back your freedom’ So... where is the problem... exactly?" Fair question | |||
"The EU had 31% of world trade in 1980 compared to 16% now In 1980 the EU (was not EU then but common market) was a lot smaller than it is now as several countries have joined. As its much bigger now surely the percentage would go up The 31pc is based on EU membership today I believe. The reason for the big fall is China. That went from 0.3 (c Canada) to 17 (trillion). (IMF numbers) Since 1980, US grew 7x, Germany c5.5 and Japan 5. So I'm not sure which countries are being comlated to say EU countries has low growth. Countries with huge populationw have grown GDP. But the top countries are all pretty similar compared to 1980. " I thought there was something a bit odd about the figures so quickly looked it up ( I stress quickly). The 31% is not today's figure. In fact as don't have the time to look back to 1980 I could not find 31% mentioned. Today's figures are anything between 14 and 16% found over several sites. | |||
"The EU had 31% of world trade in 1980 compared to 16% now In 1980 the EU (was not EU then but common market) was a lot smaller than it is now as several countries have joined. As its much bigger now surely the percentage would go up The 31pc is based on EU membership today I believe. The reason for the big fall is China. That went from 0.3 (c Canada) to 17 (trillion). (IMF numbers) Since 1980, US grew 7x, Germany c5.5 and Japan 5. So I'm not sure which countries are being comlated to say EU countries has low growth. Countries with huge populationw have grown GDP. But the top countries are all pretty similar compared to 1980. I thought there was something a bit odd about the figures so quickly looked it up ( I stress quickly). The 31% is not today's figure. In fact as don't have the time to look back to 1980 I could not find 31% mentioned. Today's figures are anything between 14 and 16% found over several sites. " i eyeballed this graph and looking at the linked IMF https://fullfact.org/europe/eu-has-shrunk-percentage-world-economy/ | |||
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"data pushed by think tanks which are thinly diguised as charities and which are headed up by tory donor business people should be treated with a certain amount of scepticism to be fair." they provided a link to IMF tbf. Unless that is what you were talking about. | |||
"data pushed by think tanks which are thinly diguised as charities and which are headed up by tory donor business people should be treated with a certain amount of scepticism to be fair.they provided a link to IMF tbf. Unless that is what you were talking about. " yes they did but they didn't provide any links to the plethora of contrary data sets either. it's always good to err on the side of caution when quoting information provided by donors of political parties. | |||
"data pushed by think tanks which are thinly diguised as charities and which are headed up by tory donor business people should be treated with a certain amount of scepticism to be fair.they provided a link to IMF tbf. Unless that is what you were talking about. yes they did but they didn't provide any links to the plethora of contrary data sets either. it's always good to err on the side of caution when quoting information provided by donors of political parties." I take your point and am interested in the contrary data. I'm not even sure what agenda they have on this point, but looking at IMF I can't see anything that says being in the EU is bad. Which was tej original point here ! | |||
"data pushed by think tanks which are thinly diguised as charities and which are headed up by tory donor business people should be treated with a certain amount of scepticism to be fair.they provided a link to IMF tbf. Unless that is what you were talking about. yes they did but they didn't provide any links to the plethora of contrary data sets either. it's always good to err on the side of caution when quoting information provided by donors of political parties.I take your point and am interested in the contrary data. I'm not even sure what agenda they have on this point, but looking at IMF I can't see anything that says being in the EU is bad. Which was tej original point here !" i take your point and agree with it  | |||
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"The EU had 31% of world trade in 1980 compared to 16% now In 1980 the EU (was not EU then but common market) was a lot smaller than it is now as several countries have joined. As its much bigger now surely the percentage would go up The 31pc is based on EU membership today I believe. The reason for the big fall is China. That went from 0.3 (c Canada) to 17 (trillion). (IMF numbers) Since 1980, US grew 7x, Germany c5.5 and Japan 5. So I'm not sure which countries are being comlated to say EU countries has low growth. Countries with huge populationw have grown GDP. But the top countries are all pretty similar compared to 1980. I thought there was something a bit odd about the figures so quickly looked it up ( I stress quickly). The 31% is not today's figure. In fact as don't have the time to look back to 1980 I could not find 31% mentioned. Today's figures are anything between 14 and 16% found over several sites. i eyeballed this graph and looking at the linked IMF https://fullfact.org/europe/eu-has-shrunk-percentage-world-economy/" Yep I saw that too when searching for the percentage. Never did find the 1980 figure but sure its there somewhere. It does seem the other posters quote of 16% today is accurate. It just was expecting the figure to have increased given the EU is much larger than before. It seems that the EU is probably improving from the early days but just not as quick as the rest of the world. That would explain some of the distortion in the figures. To be clear I am not putting the EU down in any way, I was just curious on the figures the other poster quoted | |||
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"Brexit has worked we have left the EU, hopefully never to return." That’s why I asked my question above. I’m just an impartial observer from the EU wondering what all the fuss is about. I saw an old clip of Michael Gove saying that the £350,000.000 that used to go to the EU every week could now be spent at home, and another old clip from Boris Johnson saying that there will be NO customs checks and NO problem with freedom of movement. Seems to me like yez have it easy over there, plus when the new trade deal with Australia and the US kick in, you’ll be rolling in it.... Well done ! | |||
"Brexit has worked we have left the EU, hopefully never to return." If that's the case, where is all the good stuff we were promised? | |||
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"Brexit has worked we have left the EU, hopefully never to return." someone needs to tell the DUP this. And Frost. And Boris. They keep dragging it up ! | |||
"Brexit has worked we have left the EU, hopefully never to return." Is that the best you can do?  | |||
"please define worked? worked for who? worked in what way? in what time period? Its not working for french fisher men who are most upset and its not working for french submarine builders and.... there are always pros and cons... dictator vs democracy! Its still way to early to judge, 5 to 10 years... its a long term thing. Just hope it works out! " Firstly the idea that somehow brexit has anything to do with the building of submarines is pure bat s#it crazy. Secondly none of the promises made for brexit mentioned 5 or 10 years. Deliver what you promised. | |||
"please define worked? worked for who? worked in what way? in what time period? Its not working for french fisher men who are most upset and its not working for french submarine builders and.... there are always pros and cons... dictator vs democracy! Its still way to early to judge, 5 to 10 years... its a long term thing. Just hope it works out! Firstly the idea that somehow brexit has anything to do with the building of submarines is pure bat s#it crazy. Secondly none of the promises made for brexit mentioned 5 or 10 years. Deliver what you promised." Nice definition lol UK has distanced itself from those eu fanatics hence the aus USA uk alliance hence subs contract that's nothing to do with bat shit
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"please define worked? worked for who? worked in what way? in what time period? Its not working for french fisher men who are most upset and its not working for french submarine builders and.... there are always pros and cons... dictator vs democracy! Its still way to early to judge, 5 to 10 years... its a long term thing. Just hope it works out! Firstly the idea that somehow brexit has anything to do with the building of submarines is pure bat s#it crazy. Secondly none of the promises made for brexit mentioned 5 or 10 years. Deliver what you promised. Nice definition lol UK has distanced itself from those eu fanatics hence the aus USA uk alliance hence subs contract that's nothing to do with bat shit
"And the oven ready deal with the USA, that's progressing nicely .. Wait !! | |||
"please define worked? worked for who? worked in what way? in what time period? Its not working for french fisher men who are most upset and its not working for french submarine builders and.... there are always pros and cons... dictator vs democracy! Its still way to early to judge, 5 to 10 years... its a long term thing. Just hope it works out! Firstly the idea that somehow brexit has anything to do with the building of submarines is pure bat s#it crazy. Secondly none of the promises made for brexit mentioned 5 or 10 years. Deliver what you promised. Nice definition lol UK has distanced itself from those eu fanatics hence the aus USA uk alliance hence subs contract that's nothing to do with bat shit
And the oven ready deal with the USA, that's progressing nicely ..
Wait !!"who said there was an oven ready deal with USA waiting? think youre mixing your quotes!!!!!!! | |||
"please define worked? worked for who? worked in what way? in what time period? Its not working for french fisher men who are most upset and its not working for french submarine builders and.... there are always pros and cons... dictator vs democracy! Its still way to early to judge, 5 to 10 years... its a long term thing. Just hope it works out! Firstly the idea that somehow brexit has anything to do with the building of submarines is pure bat s#it crazy. Secondly none of the promises made for brexit mentioned 5 or 10 years. Deliver what you promised. Nice definition lol UK has distanced itself from those eu fanatics hence the aus USA uk alliance hence subs contract that's nothing to do with bat shit
And the oven ready deal with the USA, that's progressing nicely ..
Wait !!
who said there was an oven ready deal with USA waiting? think youre mixing your quotes!!!!!!! "didn't farage suggest we could do it in a day or two ? | |||
"please define worked? worked for who? worked in what way? in what time period? Its not working for french fisher men who are most upset and its not working for french submarine builders and.... there are always pros and cons... dictator vs democracy! Its still way to early to judge, 5 to 10 years... its a long term thing. Just hope it works out! Firstly the idea that somehow brexit has anything to do with the building of submarines is pure bat s#it crazy. Secondly none of the promises made for brexit mentioned 5 or 10 years. Deliver what you promised. Nice definition lol UK has distanced itself from those eu fanatics hence the aus USA uk alliance hence subs contract that's nothing to do with bat shit
And the oven ready deal with the USA, that's progressing nicely ..
Wait !!
who said there was an oven ready deal with USA waiting? think youre mixing your quotes!!!!!!! "Quotes are irrelevant, it didn't happen and ain't happening anytime soon contrary to expectations | |||
"please define worked? worked for who? worked in what way? in what time period? Its not working for french fisher men who are most upset and its not working for french submarine builders and.... there are always pros and cons... dictator vs democracy! Its still way to early to judge, 5 to 10 years... its a long term thing. Just hope it works out! Firstly the idea that somehow brexit has anything to do with the building of submarines is pure bat s#it crazy. Secondly none of the promises made for brexit mentioned 5 or 10 years. Deliver what you promised. Nice definition lol UK has distanced itself from those eu fanatics hence the aus USA uk alliance hence subs contract that's nothing to do with bat shit
And the oven ready deal with the USA, that's progressing nicely ..
Wait !!
who said there was an oven ready deal with USA waiting? think youre mixing your quotes!!!!!!!
Quotes are irrelevant, it didn't happen and ain't happening anytime soon contrary to expectations"so you use quotes but now they are irrelevant! even boris isnt that quick to change tact!! But just for the record how soon is soon? within the year? within the hour? If its worth it it will happen, if it isnt, we dont want it! | |||
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"Brexit was always a medium to long term benefit idea" That's not what the brexit leadership said. | |||
"Brexit was always a medium to long term benefit idea" you would have thought that was obvious but it seems not | |||
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"OP it’s a good analysis but I don’t agree on a number of points, particularly over what could or could not be predicted. The fishing issue is a perfect one. Remain proponents repeatedly warned about what would happen (heck I myself was even discussing it having done some research). The waters containing the wrong fish for the domestic UK market being something well known for decades (Icelandic Cod Wars anyone?). Every warning was branded as Project Fear. However, things are fast shaping up to be Project Reality. Gas price inflation was one. Food prices another. Loss of labour in various sectors another. The list is pretty endless. Of course the complexity means there are some results that were unpredictable but I’m afraid a huge amount of pain the UK is experiencing and will continue to experience is directly attributable to Brexit. " any change of direction brings consequences! the issue is will the consequences be justified by the end result? Diesel car or electric? they said diesel, they said diesel !!!! | |||
"Brexit was always a medium to long term benefit idea That's not what the brexit leadership said." Yes it was | |||
"Brexit was always a medium to long term benefit idea That's not what the brexit leadership said. Yes it was" I don't recall them saying there will be no short term benefits ... But short term disruption. | |||
"OP it’s a good analysis but I don’t agree on a number of points, particularly over what could or could not be predicted. The fishing issue is a perfect one. Remain proponents repeatedly warned about what would happen (heck I myself was even discussing it having done some research). The waters containing the wrong fish for the domestic UK market being something well known for decades (Icelandic Cod Wars anyone?). Every warning was branded as Project Fear. However, things are fast shaping up to be Project Reality. Gas price inflation was one. Food prices another. Loss of labour in various sectors another. The list is pretty endless. Of course the complexity means there are some results that were unpredictable but I’m afraid a huge amount of pain the UK is experiencing and will continue to experience is directly attributable to Brexit. any change of direction brings consequences! the issue is will the consequences be justified by the end result? Diesel car or electric? they said diesel, they said diesel !!!! "Good bit of gaslighting there “any change of direction brings consequences” but we didn’t need a change of direction. We were doing perfectly well as part of the EU. Anyone who wasn’t was sold a lie blaming the EU for domestic policy decisions. | |||
"OP it’s a good analysis but I don’t agree on a number of points, particularly over what could or could not be predicted. The fishing issue is a perfect one. Remain proponents repeatedly warned about what would happen (heck I myself was even discussing it having done some research). The waters containing the wrong fish for the domestic UK market being something well known for decades (Icelandic Cod Wars anyone?). Every warning was branded as Project Fear. However, things are fast shaping up to be Project Reality. Gas price inflation was one. Food prices another. Loss of labour in various sectors another. The list is pretty endless. Of course the complexity means there are some results that were unpredictable but I’m afraid a huge amount of pain the UK is experiencing and will continue to experience is directly attributable to Brexit. any change of direction brings consequences! the issue is will the consequences be justified by the end result? Diesel car or electric? they said diesel, they said diesel !!!!
Good bit of gaslighting there “any change of direction brings consequences” but we didn’t need a change of direction. We were doing perfectly well as part of the EU. Anyone who wasn’t was sold a lie blaming the EU for domestic policy decisions. "I'm happy to accept your opinion but I believe the EU is heading for the dogs and so I expect you to accept mine and that of the majority, albeit a slim one. | |||
"OP it’s a good analysis but I don’t agree on a number of points, particularly over what could or could not be predicted. The fishing issue is a perfect one. Remain proponents repeatedly warned about what would happen (heck I myself was even discussing it having done some research). The waters containing the wrong fish for the domestic UK market being something well known for decades (Icelandic Cod Wars anyone?). Every warning was branded as Project Fear. However, things are fast shaping up to be Project Reality. Gas price inflation was one. Food prices another. Loss of labour in various sectors another. The list is pretty endless. Of course the complexity means there are some results that were unpredictable but I’m afraid a huge amount of pain the UK is experiencing and will continue to experience is directly attributable to Brexit. any change of direction brings consequences! the issue is will the consequences be justified by the end result? Diesel car or electric? they said diesel, they said diesel !!!!
Good bit of gaslighting there “any change of direction brings consequences” but we didn’t need a change of direction. We were doing perfectly well as part of the EU. Anyone who wasn’t was sold a lie blaming the EU for domestic policy decisions. "uk lorry drivers werent, uk fisher men werent...... etc etc | |||
"OP it’s a good analysis but I don’t agree on a number of points, particularly over what could or could not be predicted. The fishing issue is a perfect one. Remain proponents repeatedly warned about what would happen (heck I myself was even discussing it having done some research). The waters containing the wrong fish for the domestic UK market being something well known for decades (Icelandic Cod Wars anyone?). Every warning was branded as Project Fear. However, things are fast shaping up to be Project Reality. Gas price inflation was one. Food prices another. Loss of labour in various sectors another. The list is pretty endless. Of course the complexity means there are some results that were unpredictable but I’m afraid a huge amount of pain the UK is experiencing and will continue to experience is directly attributable to Brexit. any change of direction brings consequences! the issue is will the consequences be justified by the end result? Diesel car or electric? they said diesel, they said diesel !!!!
Good bit of gaslighting there “any change of direction brings consequences” but we didn’t need a change of direction. We were doing perfectly well as part of the EU. Anyone who wasn’t was sold a lie blaming the EU for domestic policy decisions.
uk lorry drivers werent, uk fisher men werent...... etc etc "UK lorry drivers enjoyed unlimited cabotage, now they don't, UK fisheries thrown under the bus by brexit, companies going bust. | |||
"OP it’s a good analysis but I don’t agree on a number of points, particularly over what could or could not be predicted. The fishing issue is a perfect one. Remain proponents repeatedly warned about what would happen (heck I myself was even discussing it having done some research). The waters containing the wrong fish for the domestic UK market being something well known for decades (Icelandic Cod Wars anyone?). Every warning was branded as Project Fear. However, things are fast shaping up to be Project Reality. Gas price inflation was one. Food prices another. Loss of labour in various sectors another. The list is pretty endless. Of course the complexity means there are some results that were unpredictable but I’m afraid a huge amount of pain the UK is experiencing and will continue to experience is directly attributable to Brexit. any change of direction brings consequences! the issue is will the consequences be justified by the end result? Diesel car or electric? they said diesel, they said diesel !!!!
Good bit of gaslighting there “any change of direction brings consequences” but we didn’t need a change of direction. We were doing perfectly well as part of the EU. Anyone who wasn’t was sold a lie blaming the EU for domestic policy decisions.
uk lorry drivers werent, uk fisher men werent...... etc etc
UK lorry drivers enjoyed unlimited cabotage, now they don't, UK fisheries thrown under the bus by brexit, companies going bust. "You said why change, everything was great.... clearly many thought it wasnt .... if you want to ignore that there's not much anyone can say  | |||
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"OP it’s a good analysis but I don’t agree on a number of points, particularly over what could or could not be predicted. The fishing issue is a perfect one. Remain proponents repeatedly warned about what would happen (heck I myself was even discussing it having done some research). The waters containing the wrong fish for the domestic UK market being something well known for decades (Icelandic Cod Wars anyone?). Every warning was branded as Project Fear. However, things are fast shaping up to be Project Reality. Gas price inflation was one. Food prices another. Loss of labour in various sectors another. The list is pretty endless. Of course the complexity means there are some results that were unpredictable but I’m afraid a huge amount of pain the UK is experiencing and will continue to experience is directly attributable to Brexit. any change of direction brings consequences! the issue is will the consequences be justified by the end result? Diesel car or electric? they said diesel, they said diesel !!!!
Good bit of gaslighting there “any change of direction brings consequences” but we didn’t need a change of direction. We were doing perfectly well as part of the EU. Anyone who wasn’t was sold a lie blaming the EU for domestic policy decisions. "Those brexit leaders, masters of panic lying. Got lots of people on board with it, now its turning for the worst, they all go into hiding or deny it wasn’t their fault. | |||
"OP it’s a good analysis but I don’t agree on a number of points, particularly over what could or could not be predicted. The fishing issue is a perfect one. Remain proponents repeatedly warned about what would happen (heck I myself was even discussing it having done some research). The waters containing the wrong fish for the domestic UK market being something well known for decades (Icelandic Cod Wars anyone?). Every warning was branded as Project Fear. However, things are fast shaping up to be Project Reality. Gas price inflation was one. Food prices another. Loss of labour in various sectors another. The list is pretty endless. Of course the complexity means there are some results that were unpredictable but I’m afraid a huge amount of pain the UK is experiencing and will continue to experience is directly attributable to Brexit. any change of direction brings consequences! the issue is will the consequences be justified by the end result? Diesel car or electric? they said diesel, they said diesel !!!!
Good bit of gaslighting there “any change of direction brings consequences” but we didn’t need a change of direction. We were doing perfectly well as part of the EU. Anyone who wasn’t was sold a lie blaming the EU for domestic policy decisions.
I'm happy to accept your opinion but I believe the EU is heading for the dogs and so I expect you to accept mine and that of the majority, albeit a slim one. "The ‘EU’ is not a country, this is a concept that seems to be a lost on more than a few people. | |||
"OP it’s a good analysis but I don’t agree on a number of points, particularly over what could or could not be predicted. The fishing issue is a perfect one. Remain proponents repeatedly warned about what would happen (heck I myself was even discussing it having done some research). The waters containing the wrong fish for the domestic UK market being something well known for decades (Icelandic Cod Wars anyone?). Every warning was branded as Project Fear. However, things are fast shaping up to be Project Reality. Gas price inflation was one. Food prices another. Loss of labour in various sectors another. The list is pretty endless. Of course the complexity means there are some results that were unpredictable but I’m afraid a huge amount of pain the UK is experiencing and will continue to experience is directly attributable to Brexit. " My point is that although lots of these things could be and were predicted, it was impossible to say exactly which ones of them would happen and when. The brexit side used the argument that if we could not exactly and precisely predict the total effect of brexit, then we were just making it up ie. it was project fear. And indeed it would have been perfectly possible to pick any one of the bad effects and arrange the deal to avoid that one, which in fact I am certain did happen. But each line item that is picked on and fixed in the deal will have had some unforeseen side effect and a different problem will have popped up. It's a game of "whack a mole". The whole thing is just too complex to figure out in advance. Somebody could have fixed the fishing thing in the deal (eg. if the fisheries minister had bothered to read the deal instead of going Christmas carolling or whatever it was), but then there would have been some different thing that got omitted, there would have been a cock up in the rules for some other sector of industry. The concept of chaos economics is that if you have only a few things changing fairly slowly, then you can just about keep on top of the problems and fix them as you go along. But if things change quickly, or too many things change all at once, the whole system becomes unstable, things move in unforeseen directions. Not just unforeseen because nobody thought hard enough about them, but unforeseeable because the exact effects are so hypersensitive to the initial conditions. Eg. we currently have a distribution system that is stretched to the very limit because of not enough drivers. It can just about cope, but then we get a news report of empty tanks at a small number of filling stations, the population over-reacts and starts panic buying petrol, stations all over the country go empty, the government panics and decides to emergency issue visas to attract overseas workers, HGV drivers get wage rises, price of food on the shelves has to go up because the HGV wage rise has to be paid somehow, low paid workers can't afford to buy the food and start demanding wage rises, strikes happen, inflation cycle begins... But if the initial news report had not been made, or had been a story about some other type of shortage, then the detail and the timing of the crisis could be very different - there would still be some problem, because the whole system has not spare capacity in it, but the detail of what items and which individuals were affected could be totally different. Brexit would always break something, because it involved changing everything. By refusing to even countenance the idea that anything could go wrong, the government ensured that the problems would be bigger, harder and more costly. | |||
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"please define worked? worked for who? worked in what way? in what time period? Its not working for french fisher men who are most upset and its not working for french submarine builders and.... there are always pros and cons... dictator vs democracy! Its still way to early to judge, 5 to 10 years... its a long term thing. Just hope it works out! Firstly the idea that somehow brexit has anything to do with the building of submarines is pure bat s#it crazy. Secondly none of the promises made for brexit mentioned 5 or 10 years. Deliver what you promised. Nice definition lol UK has distanced itself from those eu fanatics hence the aus USA uk alliance hence subs contract that's nothing to do with bat shit
And the oven ready deal with the USA, that's progressing nicely ..
Wait !!
who said there was an oven ready deal with USA waiting? think youre mixing your quotes!!!!!!! didn't farage suggest we could do it in a day or two ?"Boris was very confident we were first in line!! https://mobile.twitter.com/PhantomPower14/status/1440610386651222024 Sorry for reposting but it’s a good clip | |||
"OP it’s a good analysis but I don’t agree on a number of points, particularly over what could or could not be predicted. The fishing issue is a perfect one. Remain proponents repeatedly warned about what would happen (heck I myself was even discussing it having done some research). The waters containing the wrong fish for the domestic UK market being something well known for decades (Icelandic Cod Wars anyone?). Every warning was branded as Project Fear. However, things are fast shaping up to be Project Reality. Gas price inflation was one. Food prices another. Loss of labour in various sectors another. The list is pretty endless. Of course the complexity means there are some results that were unpredictable but I’m afraid a huge amount of pain the UK is experiencing and will continue to experience is directly attributable to Brexit. any change of direction brings consequences! the issue is will the consequences be justified by the end result? Diesel car or electric? they said diesel, they said diesel !!!!
Good bit of gaslighting there “any change of direction brings consequences” but we didn’t need a change of direction. We were doing perfectly well as part of the EU. Anyone who wasn’t was sold a lie blaming the EU for domestic policy decisions.
uk lorry drivers werent, uk fisher men werent...... etc etc "The RHA did a survey recently. The top three reasons for a lack of drivers (by a significant margin) were 1) Retirement. 2) Brexit. 3) IR35. Pay and conditions were ranked far lower than these three. IR35 is actually the elephant in the room, a domestic (ie not EU) punitive unfair tax approach that is decimating self employed contractors (nobody really cared when it was only high paid IT/oil contractors but the reality is this impacts on truckers, locum nurses/doctors, supply teachers etc etc. Fishermen was/is highly complex but the root of the problem was not the EU. It was the UK Govt in the 80s commercialising fishing rights and selling them to companies who in turn sold them on to EU based companies for a profit. There were literally fleets of UK fishing boats that no longer had to even go to sea because they had the revenue from the fishing rights. This pushed small/independent inshore fishing boats out of the market. | |||
"OP it’s a good analysis but I don’t agree on a number of points, particularly over what could or could not be predicted. The fishing issue is a perfect one. Remain proponents repeatedly warned about what would happen (heck I myself was even discussing it having done some research). The waters containing the wrong fish for the domestic UK market being something well known for decades (Icelandic Cod Wars anyone?). Every warning was branded as Project Fear. However, things are fast shaping up to be Project Reality. Gas price inflation was one. Food prices another. Loss of labour in various sectors another. The list is pretty endless. Of course the complexity means there are some results that were unpredictable but I’m afraid a huge amount of pain the UK is experiencing and will continue to experience is directly attributable to Brexit. My point is that although lots of these things could be and were predicted, it was impossible to say exactly which ones of them would happen and when. The brexit side used the argument that if we could not exactly and precisely predict the total effect of brexit, then we were just making it up ie. it was project fear. And indeed it would have been perfectly possible to pick any one of the bad effects and arrange the deal to avoid that one, which in fact I am certain did happen. But each line item that is picked on and fixed in the deal will have had some unforeseen side effect and a different problem will have popped up. It's a game of "whack a mole". The whole thing is just too complex to figure out in advance. Somebody could have fixed the fishing thing in the deal (eg. if the fisheries minister had bothered to read the deal instead of going Christmas carolling or whatever it was), but then there would have been some different thing that got omitted, there would have been a cock up in the rules for some other sector of industry. The concept of chaos economics is that if you have only a few things changing fairly slowly, then you can just about keep on top of the problems and fix them as you go along. But if things change quickly, or too many things change all at once, the whole system becomes unstable, things move in unforeseen directions. Not just unforeseen because nobody thought hard enough about them, but unforeseeable because the exact effects are so hypersensitive to the initial conditions. Eg. we currently have a distribution system that is stretched to the very limit because of not enough drivers. It can just about cope, but then we get a news report of empty tanks at a small number of filling stations, the population over-reacts and starts panic buying petrol, stations all over the country go empty, the government panics and decides to emergency issue visas to attract overseas workers, HGV drivers get wage rises, price of food on the shelves has to go up because the HGV wage rise has to be paid somehow, low paid workers can't afford to buy the food and start demanding wage rises, strikes happen, inflation cycle begins... But if the initial news report had not been made, or had been a story about some other type of shortage, then the detail and the timing of the crisis could be very different - there would still be some problem, because the whole system has not spare capacity in it, but the detail of what items and which individuals were affected could be totally different. Brexit would always break something, because it involved changing everything. By refusing to even countenance the idea that anything could go wrong, the government ensured that the problems would be bigger, harder and more costly." Again all good points well made. My issue with chaos economics is that you need to introduce change/chaos to enact and realise the issues. We had stability that did not require the sudden level of change that happened. The UK had a unique and preferential relationship within the EU, outside both the Euro and Schengen. We literally had the best of both worlds! Tory* austerity set the mood for people to be angry and need a scapegoat and Leave weaponised that discontent to blame all on EU when the reality was most of the issues were as a result of (sovereign) domestic policy. Leave focused on the things that were wrong (or at least appeared to be wrong) without acknowledging the majority of positives membership had given the UK. Remain failed miserably to focus on those positives instead deciding to go down the “look how bad things might be if we leave”. Cameron et al lost the argument rather than Farage et al winning it IMO. As a result the tiny minority who will really benefit from Brexit (and are) is the disaster capitalists (Jacob Reece-Mogg’s father literally wrote the book) and the 0.5% who offshore their money in tax havens. Leave voters have been sold a lie wrapped up in the empty promise of short term pain for long term gain. Let’s see what constitutes short vs long term. *Before anyone shouts, yes the Blair Govt set the ball rolling re freedom of movement and expansion of EU membership to allow Eastern European countries. | |||
