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By *ANWIDGES OP Couple
over a year ago
DONCASTER |
"Do you have any statistics in percentage terms to back up your theory?   "
Taken from Cosmo, not that i read Cosmo but it's an interesting article...
We’ve all heard the phrase ‘weight of popular opinion’ but how does this opinion gain its mass in the first place? Today, with the power of TV, radio and internet social networks, a new belief is a relatively easy seed to sow, but to propagate that belief so it grows to become a consensus seems an almost impossible task.
If a population contains 60million individuals, what percentage would you have to convince to tip the balance? If an idea were a tangible object that you could pick up and place on a set of scales, logic would suggest that they would only tip when you reach a figure of more than half the population. But it turns out that reality is a little stranger than that.
Scientists at the Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute in New York have found that, for a belief to conquer a population, you only need to convince ten per cent of the people. The researchers ran computer models that simulated the adoption of an idea and found that, as long as the number of people holding a minority opinion stays below ten per cent, it would take longer than the age of the universe for that group to become the majority. But, once the minority opinion passes that magical ten per cent take-up, it becomes an unstoppable train to consensus city.
To test the theory, the researchers developed computer models of various social networks. One had each member connected to every other member. The second network had only a small number of opinion leaders connected to a large group and, in the last network, every member had the same number of connections. Each network was set up to hold an existing, traditional opinion – every member held that opinion but was open minded to other views. With networks in place, the researchers then added in some ‘true believers’ –members with radical opinions, who believed one thing and were unshakable in that belief. As the ‘true believers’ began to interact with ‘traditional ideas holders’, the tide of opinion gradually – and then very swiftly – began to shift.
The basis of the model was that people don’t like to hold an unpopular opinion and usually want to reach a consensus with their peers. When a person talks to someone with the same opinion as themselves, the conversation reinforces their belief. But, if they talk with someone who holds a different opinion, they consider the argument and then pop off to talk to someone else about it. If the next person they talk to also holds the different opinion, then the listener will adopt that belief.
The research found that, as long the percentage of new opinion holders remains below ten per cent, not much changes. But, once that magic ten per cent is passed, the new opinion swiftly conquers the population.
This pattern might help explain how a rational population can come to adopt an irrational idea and fall victim to mass hysteria. It could also help explain how an idea that has spent decades – or even centuries – festering as the minority opinion can suddenly gain enough momentum to challenge and topple the status quo.
The researchers cite the recent events in Tunisia and Egypt (above) – where dictators who held power for decades were suddenly toppled from power – as examples that seem to exhibit the same pattern.
The paper appears in the journal Physical Review E – and its authors are looking for historical examples to support their research.
8/1/11 |
something about they only ask the actual question to every so many people on the list 
I didn't really understand...still don't lol!