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England Odds of Winning
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At the start of the tournament England were given a 4% chance of winning the world cup. Now that we are at the semis, we can look at the betting markets for the latest odds, which imply the following probabilities of winning:
France 33%
England 27%
Belgium 26%
Croatia 18%
It's worth noting that France had a 6% chance at the start and Belgium had a 4% chance, so the 4% for England doesn't actually seem that far off. Although once Brazil got knocked out (21%) then there wasn't much to choose from the rest, Spain were second with 10%. |
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By *al2001Man
over a year ago
kildare |
Those numbers mean about as much as the paper they are written on
They have to be blind betting numbers from england
England have a higher percent chance of winning than Belgium even tho Belgium beat you already,played much better football and played Brazil off the pitch?
Explain that one to me |
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"Those numbers mean about as much as the paper they are written on
They have to be blind betting numbers from england
England have a higher percent chance of winning than Belgium even tho Belgium beat you already,played much better football and played Brazil off the pitch?
Explain that one to me"
If you disagree with them, why not cash in on your insights? Put your money where your mouth is, so to speak. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"Those numbers mean about as much as the paper they are written on
They have to be blind betting numbers from england
England have a higher percent chance of winning than Belgium even tho Belgium beat you already,played much better football and played Brazil off the pitch?
Explain that one to me
If you disagree with them, why not cash in on your insights? Put your money where your mouth is, so to speak. "
 |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"Those numbers mean about as much as the paper they are written on
They have to be blind betting numbers from england
England have a higher percent chance of winning than Belgium even tho Belgium beat you already,played much better football and played Brazil off the pitch?
Explain that one to me"
Probably because Belgium have less chance of reaching the final (playing France in their Semi Final) than we do (playing Croatia). If we meet Belgium in the final then they are likely to be favourites for that match. |
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"My bet was put on at 18/1 befure the tournament started
 "
Damn! I never appreciated the fact that the top of each group progress in a predictable fashion. I assumed the quarter final would be randomly drawn like the FA cup. |
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"Those numbers mean about as much as the paper they are written on
They have to be blind betting numbers from england
England have a higher percent chance of winning than Belgium even tho Belgium beat you already,played much better football and played Brazil off the pitch?
Explain that one to me
Probably because Belgium have less chance of reaching the final (playing France in their Semi Final) than we do (playing Croatia). If we meet Belgium in the final then they are likely to be favourites for that match."
Ladies and gentlemen, we have a winner |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"Those numbers mean about as much as the paper they are written on
They have to be blind betting numbers from england
England have a higher percent chance of winning than Belgium even tho Belgium beat you already,played much better football and played Brazil off the pitch?
Explain that one to me"
Football odds are based on money staked, it's not got a lot to with the actual chances of any particular outcome happenening. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"Those numbers mean about as much as the paper they are written on
They have to be blind betting numbers from england
England have a higher percent chance of winning than Belgium even tho Belgium beat you already,played much better football and played Brazil off the pitch?
Explain that one to me
Football odds are based on money staked, it's not got a lot to with the actual chances of any particular outcome happenening."
utter Trollope. |
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"Those numbers mean about as much as the paper they are written on
They have to be blind betting numbers from england
England have a higher percent chance of winning than Belgium even tho Belgium beat you already,played much better football and played Brazil off the pitch?
Explain that one to me
Football odds are based on money staked, it's not got a lot to with the actual chances of any particular outcome happenening."
Actually the market averages nicely and the fools are a minority. The combined probability of belgium beating France and England should be less than the combined probability of England beating Croatia and France or Belgium, given the perceived difference in quality of France and Croatia. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"Those numbers mean about as much as the paper they are written on
They have to be blind betting numbers from england
England have a higher percent chance of winning than Belgium even tho Belgium beat you already,played much better football and played Brazil off the pitch?
Explain that one to me
Football odds are based on money staked, it's not got a lot to with the actual chances of any particular outcome happenening."
Exactly this! Betting odds only reflect the way that people are betting, not the actual likelihood of winning. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"Those numbers mean about as much as the paper they are written on
They have to be blind betting numbers from england
England have a higher percent chance of winning than Belgium even tho Belgium beat you already,played much better football and played Brazil off the pitch?
Explain that one to me
Football odds are based on money staked, it's not got a lot to with the actual chances of any particular outcome happenening.
Exactly this! Betting odds only reflect the way that people are betting, not the actual likelihood of winning. "
nonsense. they have odds before a balls been kicked |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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form... squad strength... these factors come 1st, hence Leicester being 5000/1 to win the league before a ball was kicked their form and squad was supposedly poor |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"form... squad strength... these factors come 1st, hence Leicester being 5000/1 to win the league before a ball was kicked their form and squad was supposedly poor"
But it wasn’t poor though was it? Initial odds will be based on form but they very quickly become skewed according to betting patterns. The bookmakers do this to protect against significant loses if that outcome should arise. No bookmaker ever went out of business from outcomes. It’s all part of the game. |
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"form... squad strength... these factors come 1st, hence Leicester being 5000/1 to win the league before a ball was kicked their form and squad was supposedly poor"
Frankly the bookies were foolish to accept 5,000-1. That's an implied probability of 0.02%. Every ~20 years a team that nobody expected has won the top division. Would anyone who bet a 5,000-1, not accepted 2,000-1? |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"form... squad strength... these factors come 1st, hence Leicester being 5000/1 to win the league before a ball was kicked their form and squad was supposedly poor
But it wasn’t poor though was it? Initial odds will be based on form but they very quickly become skewed according to betting patterns. The bookmakers do this to protect against significant loses if that outcome should arise. No bookmaker ever went out of business from outcomes. It’s all part of the game. "
as i said 'supposedly' |
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"Those numbers mean about as much as the paper they are written on
They have to be blind betting numbers from england
England have a higher percent chance of winning than Belgium even tho Belgium beat you already,played much better football and played Brazil off the pitch?
Explain that one to me
Football odds are based on money staked, it's not got a lot to with the actual chances of any particular outcome happenening.
Exactly this! Betting odds only reflect the way that people are betting, not the actual likelihood of winning. "
And also given that I'm guessing the figures are taken from a British based betting company where of course people will back the home team. Try finding the stats/odds from French, Belgium or Croatian based companies and you'll find that the 'home' team will be favoured by the country where the company is based. |
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"Those numbers mean about as much as the paper they are written on
They have to be blind betting numbers from england
England have a higher percent chance of winning than Belgium even tho Belgium beat you already,played much better football and played Brazil off the pitch?
Explain that one to me"
Does it make sense now? |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"Those numbers mean about as much as the paper they are written on
They have to be blind betting numbers from england
England have a higher percent chance of winning than Belgium even tho Belgium beat you already,played much better football and played Brazil off the pitch?
Explain that one to me"
Aside from the obvious flaw in your argument, if you think that Belgium played Brazil off the pitch then football obviously isn't your sport. |
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