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Yet another EU thread :P
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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago
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*pulls the pin out the grenade and throws it into the room*
Okay so on this thread I am just hoping to see people's opinions on whether they think we will leave, stay, or if the voter response will be so low/narrow it wont be valid.
Not looking for people to say which way they will/think they will vote.
Or to debate the pros/cons or EU membership or brexit.
Just say in your opinion how the votes will be cast on polling day. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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Remain but it will be close.
To be honest, my gut thoughts are that it will be leave by a slim margin give the advantage that camp had but I doubt that will happen. |
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"*pulls the pin out the grenade and throws it into the room*
Okay so on this thread I am just hoping to see people's opinions on whether they think we will leave, stay, or if the voter response will be so low/narrow it wont be valid.
Not looking for people to say which way they will/think they will vote.
Or to debate the pros/cons or EU membership or brexit.
Just say in your opinion how the votes will be cast on polling day."
People like security and knowing what to expect in their future.
I think it will be a low turn out but that the stay camp will win.
I think many of those who proclaim to be in the Brexit camp will either vote to stay in the secrecy of the polling booth or simply won't turn out.
This will be a shame and however the vote goes I hope for a high turn out. |
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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago
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"I think the UK will leave, but narrowly. It seems that many people I speak with in the UK think the same. "
Yes I have the same feeling - I think it will be a leave vote, by a slim margin.
What I want to know, because the UKIP campaigners I bumped into couldn't answer this for me, is - what turn out is required for the vote to be valid. And is a case of say 50.9/49.1 for staying or leaving valid? Usually very slim majorities demand a re-count or fresh vote. |
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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago
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"*pulls the pin out the grenade and throws it into the room*
Okay so on this thread I am just hoping to see people's opinions on whether they think we will leave, stay, or if the voter response will be so low/narrow it wont be valid.
Not looking for people to say which way they will/think they will vote.
Or to debate the pros/cons or EU membership or brexit.
Just say in your opinion how the votes will be cast on polling day.
People like security and knowing what to expect in their future.
I think it will be a low turn out but that the stay camp will win.
I think many of those who proclaim to be in the Brexit camp will either vote to stay in the secrecy of the polling booth or simply won't turn out.
This will be a shame and however the vote goes I hope for a high turn out. "
Good point, I hope the turn out isn't low, it just gives either camp the chance to whine on about how the day of choice impacted them negatively or something. I really think that the vote on the EU referendum should be compulsory. I know it's arguably undemocratic to tell everyone they must vote, but you know we do need an accurate reading on this. |
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"I think the UK will leave, but narrowly. It seems that many people I speak with in the UK think the same.
Yes I have the same feeling - I think it will be a leave vote, by a slim margin.
What I want to know, because the UKIP campaigners I bumped into couldn't answer this for me, is - what turn out is required for the vote to be valid. And is a case of say 50.9/49.1 for staying or leaving valid? Usually very slim majorities demand a re-count or fresh vote. "
I think it will be like a general election where many people say they wont vote Tory but tories win by a landslide ..people aren't that stupid IN by a landslide of course |
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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago
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"I think the UK will leave, but narrowly. It seems that many people I speak with in the UK think the same.
Yes I have the same feeling - I think it will be a leave vote, by a slim margin.
What I want to know, because the UKIP campaigners I bumped into couldn't answer this for me, is - what turn out is required for the vote to be valid. And is a case of say 50.9/49.1 for staying or leaving valid? Usually very slim majorities demand a re-count or fresh vote. I think it will be like a general election where many people say they wont vote Tory but tories win by a landslide ..people aren't that stupid IN by a landslide of course "
Really? I mean I don't think there will be an outright leave vote - I know a lot of people who are feeling so mislead about it all that they think they might either spoil their vote or not bother because neither side is being convincing or putting up good enough evidence.
Like I have a friend who said that he feels like he has a foot in each camp,and unless something changes he'll most likely invalidate his vote. |
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I think it will be to remain as an outcome. The protest vote to leave has greater determination to vote than the majority who prefer the status quo - so a sizeable vote to leave, though not enough.
Farage will continue milking any gravy train he can get his hands on, including EU funds, despite their staff doing next to no work - rarely bothering to turn up to vote. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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Some answers on this thread are interesting. I haven't actually met an OUT supporter yet. Not a single person in my social media circles or anything. I think it'll be a close IN. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"Some answers on this thread are interesting. I haven't actually met an OUT supporter yet. Not a single person in my social media circles or anything. I think it'll be a close IN."
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That's interesting in its own, you say you've never met an "out" yet you only think it will be a close "in"?.
I'm putting my 60/40 out on the fact that the outers will turn up and the inners won't |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"The out campaign relies on the unemployed and the feckless coming out to vote, is it a gyro day ?"
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I don't think it does, my personal experience is that there mostly inners as they perceive the EU will protect their benefits rights |
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My thoughts on it are nased on 2 sources. My
Facebook page.
My work where in and given week I chat to around 600 employees before and after their shifts so whatever the topic of the day is usually comes up.
Now here's a statement to set the hares running:
Those that make by far the most noise and feel the need to declare themselves patriotic saviours of the nation are Brexiters and the ones I would consider least likely to actually turn out and vote.
Those who are with the in camp are more reserved and considered in their opinion and are the people I would expect to be more engaged in a any kind of political topic.
Based on what people say they will do it should be 70/30 to leave.
Based on who I think will vote it will be 57/43 stay. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"The out campaign relies on the unemployed and the feckless coming out to vote, is it a gyro day ?"
Not sure about feckless, but it does seem to be completely backed by xenophobes. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"The out campaign relies on the unemployed and the feckless coming out to vote, is it a gyro day ?
Not sure about feckless, but it does seem to be completely backed by xenophobes. "
I think everyone knows the demographics of the out camp so I won't be derogatory about it.
It's the same as the general election though - a certain band of people will make a lot of noise but in reality they make up a far smaller percentage of voters.
It's all very interesting though. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"Some answers on this thread are interesting. I haven't actually met an OUT supporter yet. Not a single person in my social media circles or anything. I think it'll be a close IN..
That's interesting in its own, you say you've never met an "out" yet you only think it will be a close "in"?.
I'm putting my 60/40 out on the fact that the outers will turn up and the inners won't"
The close 'in' judgement was mostly based on my own opinion and from following various predictions from media outlets.
So I'm aware that Brexiters exist. It's just that I haven't actually met any yet. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"The out campaign relies on the unemployed and the feckless coming out to vote, is it a gyro day ?
Not sure about feckless, but it does seem to be completely backed by xenophobes.
I think everyone knows the demographics of the out camp so I won't be derogatory about it.
It's the same as the general election though - a certain band of people will make a lot of noise but in reality they make up a far smaller percentage of voters.
It's all very interesting though."
I remember being hugely underwhelmed by UKIP's performance. I expect the same will happen yet again. |
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"The out campaign relies on the unemployed and the feckless coming out to vote, is it a gyro day ?
Not sure about feckless, but it does seem to be completely backed by xenophobes.
I think everyone knows the demographics of the out camp so I won't be derogatory about it.
It's the same as the general election though - a certain band of people will make a lot of noise but in reality they make up a far smaller percentage of voters.
It's all very interesting though.
I remember being hugely underwhelmed by UKIP's performance. I expect the same will happen yet again. "
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"The out campaign relies on the unemployed and the feckless coming out to vote, is it a gyro day ?
Not sure about feckless, but it does seem to be completely backed by xenophobes.
I think everyone knows the demographics of the out camp so I won't be derogatory about it.
It's the same as the general election though - a certain band of people will make a lot of noise but in reality they make up a far smaller percentage of voters.
It's all very interesting though.
I remember being hugely underwhelmed by UKIP's performance. I expect the same will happen yet again. "
I was wondering if feckless was the up to date way of referring to older voters, since they are a key demographic for the Brexit campaign and likely to turn out. UKIP did amazingly well with their help on a very poor turn out in the last european election.
Turn out is going to be key for this vote if any valid or legitimate conclusion is to be drawn from it. There are some people who are trying to give the message that you don't need to vote remain because politicians will make sure we stay in whatever the vote. I treat that as a ploy to discourage supporters of staying in from voting. I'd hope that everyone votes for what they want - I strongly suspect that if it is an out vote, Cameron will invoke article 50 shortly before resigning, there'll be absolute chaos and no route back. So it'd better be a good majority on a good turn out.
On the other hand, if the country votes to remain, we have another 40 years of whingeing from Gove, Redwood, Lawson, Johnson, Minford and co to look forward to. On the basis that it would help avoid that nightmare scenario I might vote for Brexit ... not.
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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I think we will stay - it may be close, but many when it comes down to it. Don't like change and leaving is a bit too radical for most people in reality.
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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The older generation are more in favour of a Brexit and are more likely to vote. Likewise more men than women are in favour of a Brexit and are more likely to vote. UKIP had a lot of support at the last election on basically a single ticket and the Conservatives gained a lot of support because they were the only major party to offer the chance of a referendum. I think there is a greater desire to change things than there is for things to remain as they are. For those reasons, amongst others, I think the vote will be OUT and don't even think it will close
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"*pulls the pin out the grenade and throws it into the room*
Okay so on this thread I am just hoping to see people's opinions on whether they think we will leave, stay, or if the voter response will be so low/narrow it wont be valid.
Not looking for people to say which way they will/think they will vote.
Or to debate the pros/cons or EU membership or brexit.
Just say in your opinion how the votes will be cast on polling day.
People like security and knowing what to expect in their future.
I think it will be a low turn out but that the stay camp will win.
I think many of those who proclaim to be in the Brexit camp will either vote to stay in the secrecy of the polling booth or simply won't turn out.
This will be a shame and however the vote goes I hope for a high turn out. "
Pretty much sums up my view too. |
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"The older generation are more in favour of a Brexit and are more likely to vote. Likewise more men than women are in favour of a Brexit and are more likely to vote. UKIP had a lot of support at the last election on basically a single ticket and the Conservatives gained a lot of support because they were the only major party to offer the chance of a referendum. I think there is a greater desire to change things than there is for things to remain as they are. For those reasons, amongst others, I think the vote will be OUT and don't even think it will close
"
might be tempted to agree if the brexit campaign was showing any benefits from an exit instead of disadvantages of remaining in ..a totally negative campaign from brexiters which shows in the polls... they have steadily lost support since November....think polls show going to be fairly close ... |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"The older generation are more in favour of a Brexit and are more likely to vote. Likewise more men than women are in favour of a Brexit and are more likely to vote. UKIP had a lot of support at the last election on basically a single ticket and the Conservatives gained a lot of support because they were the only major party to offer the chance of a referendum. I think there is a greater desire to change things than there is for things to remain as they are. For those reasons, amongst others, I think the vote will be OUT and don't even think it will close
might be tempted to agree if the brexit campaign was showing any benefits from an exit instead of disadvantages of remaining in ..a totally negative campaign from brexiters which shows in the polls... they have steadily lost support since November....think polls show going to be fairly close ..."
Not sure which polls you read but over the last 12 months most put it the other way around. The important thing though is that of those questioned, what percentage will actually vote |
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By *oo hotCouple
over a year ago
North West |
I think that it will be a vote to leave, followed by an irrevocable and acrimonious split in the Conservative Party leading to Cameron stepping down. Then, in short order, a crashing of the FTSE and dramatic loss of value in the £GBP followed by a vote of no confidence in the "new" Conservative government and an overwhelming public demand for an election despite the fact that the govt is only 18 months into a five year fixed term. At some stage between now and then I also see Corbyn getting shunted and an electable Labour leader being appointed so that by the time an election comes round within 12 months of the EU referendum, Labour will win with a promise of an urgent second EU referendum and the country will vote to remain after a few more EU concessions and a realisation in the UK that voting in the European elections is actually more important than had thus been appreciated so far.
PS... None of the above is what I would want to happen. I would prefer a comfortable vote to remain but I don't see the remain voters as being sufficiently motivated to turn out in the numbers required. The Brexit crowd are much more animated and likely to vote. |
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By *abioMan
over a year ago
Newcastle and Gateshead |
actually i think the outs are the more vocal.... but just like the "leavers" in the independence refs...... the minority...
empty vessels make the most noise and all that.....
remain will win 55/45 |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"actually i think the outs are the more vocal.... but just like the "leavers" in the independence refs...... the minority...
empty vessels make the most noise and all that.....
remain will win 55/45"
What, like Obama?  |
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"actually i think the outs are the more vocal.... but just like the "leavers" in the independence refs...... the minority...
empty vessels make the most noise and all that.....
remain will win 55/45
What, like Obama? "
thought Obama won that's why he is president of the USA ...but hey in the deluded world of the brexiters maybe Obama lost that's why he is president ... |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"actually i think the outs are the more vocal.... but just like the "leavers" in the independence refs...... the minority...
empty vessels make the most noise and all that.....
remain will win 55/45
What, like Obama? thought Obama won that's why he is president of the USA ...but hey in the deluded world of the brexiters maybe Obama lost that's why he is president ..."
Doh. I was referring to the empty vessel dig  |
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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago
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"I think that it will be a vote to leave, followed by an irrevocable and acrimonious split in the Conservative Party leading to Cameron stepping down. Then, in short order, a crashing of the FTSE and dramatic loss of value in the £GBP followed by a vote of no confidence in the "new" Conservative government and an overwhelming public demand for an election despite the fact that the govt is only 18 months into a five year fixed term. At some stage between now and then I also see Corbyn getting shunted and an electable Labour leader being appointed so that by the time an election comes round within 12 months of the EU referendum, Labour will win with a promise of an urgent second EU referendum and the country will vote to remain after a few more EU concessions and a realisation in the UK that voting in the European elections is actually more important than had thus been appreciated so far.
PS... None of the above is what I would want to happen. I would prefer a comfortable vote to remain but I don't see the remain voters as being sufficiently motivated to turn out in the numbers required. The Brexit crowd are much more animated and likely to vote."
I think the final two points are really crucial - like myself and my parents were chatting about it today. They feel as though the current arguments to a stay and leave are both very fear based and lack constructive thought and honesty, and because of that they feel as though a lot of people for either side will be put off voting, or those who do vote will void their vote. They feel as though out of the strong dedicated IN and OUT voters the OUT vote has a majority and might be more motivate to stay true on voting day. But as they said, that is because from where they stand the OUT voters seem to make more noise and the media gives Farage a strong voice.
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